Ray Dalio’s Harsh 2026 Market Warning (The Wealth Shift No One’s Ready For)

If you're just starting out, if you're in your 20s, spend your 20s grinding. Work hard. Do the things that other 20-year-olds aren't doing at 20 because then when you get to 30 and 40, you will already be in a certain place where you can then have more freedom.

Today, we are going to dive into a recent episode between Ray Dalio and Steven Bartlett on the Diary of a CEO.

What are your thoughts on the UK at the moment? You're seeing the Tommy Robinson marches in the UK. You're seeing the debate around immigration. You're seeing the same kind of marches in Australia. What I think is really important to understand is all the symptoms to the things that you're seeing today with these marches, etc., all come back to the cause, and the cause is where we are in that global 80 to 100-year cycle. This issue is an issue that's faced by governments around the world. The US has $37 trillion in debt. The UK has a debt problem. France has a debt problem. Australia has a debt problem. Putting money into the economy, expanding credit in and of itself isn't a problem if your productivity growth is in excess of the debt growth. The biggest reason for having the ability to be mobile is if we are living in a fractured world or a fractured society, you want to go where people treat you best. What does the average person do in order to get through this issue that is facing these countries as a whole? And the answer to that is to...

All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another episode of Money Markets and Mayhem. I am your host Mark, and today we are going to dive into a recent episode between Ray Dalio and Steven Bartlett on the Diary of a CEO. The title of the video is "We Are Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times. America and the UK's Decline Is Coming." And I would also apply some of the things that we are seeing here to Australia and largely to a lot of the Western countries at the moment because we all follow a very similar economic system and debt cycle and system. So I'm going to try and go through some key parts of this episode and I'm going to try and break them down and explain them a little bit further and give them some further context.

Um, Ray, when I first started getting into macro and finance, Ray Dalio was one of the first people that I started listening to. He's a wealth of knowledge. He founded Bridgewater back in 1976, I believe. At one point, they had over $150 billion under management and were the largest hedge fund in the world. Ray Dalio has since handed over the reins and control of the hedge fund. He's worth multiple billions, maybe even tens of billions of dollars. And now he's spending a lot of his time writing books and giving talks that basically dive into where we are. And Ray Dalio has a model, and I will go through that model because I think it's very relevant to where we are here today.

All right, so I think you guys are going to love this episode. The last time I did an episode like this, it was with Lynn Alden, and it was around her 20-minute talk at the Bitcoin conference. I got so many glowing reviews from that. Um, and so let's see if we can do the same with this episode here with Ray and Stephen. Stephen asked some great questions, and I hope that I can try and put it into layman's terms. So without further ado, let's get into the episode.

One more thing, guys. I know that you probably are tired of hearing these little interruptions, but it is important, and that's why we do it. If you haven't already followed the page, it would be awesome if you could just quickly click down below, give the video a like, hit follow, hit subscribe. That's how we know we're doing a good job. It's also more important than you think in getting guests. And, um, that is my intention for this show to start getting guests like Ray Dalio on the show would be a dream. Now, that's a huge dream, but we've all got to start somewhere. And for now, the thing that you can do to most help me, it doesn't cost a cent. Just hit that subscribe button, and I hope you enjoy the episode.

All right, so I'm going to start with the trailer because I think this trailer for this episode goes for 2 minutes. Um, but these editing team at Diary of a CEO are phenomenal. But this trailer really, really caught my attention. So I'm going to play it in its entirety.

All right, let's start with the trailer. Pay attention. Pain plus reflection equals product. And from that principle, my company became the largest hedge fund in the world. How much? $150 billion. But I learned that history of things that never happened in my lifetime before were important things to understand in order to predict the future. And we can get into that if you want. So Ray Dalio is the legendary billionaire investor who decoded the cycles of human history to predict financial crashes, build the world's largest hedge fund, and now to warn us about what lies ahead. Are you optimistic about the future? No. We're not going to stick this. No. What? In order to bet on what's going to happen in the global economy, I learned that there's five big forces that create a big cycle. That's what BD, which lasts about 80 years. The first is the money debt force that creates wealth and opportunities gaps, and it's connected to the second force, the internal conflict, where you don't trust the system, causing wars between the left and the right, and it's uneasy answers like taxation, and we can get into that. But the third is geopolitical, in other words, international conflict. Then there's acts of nature, and then number five is man's inventiveness, particularly of new technologies. Now, the question is, who wins the technology war? Does the winner of that determine how the new world order works? Is it something to be said about the question is how you as an individual? Yeah. How do I as an individual handle that? So there's a building in your financial strength, flexibility, importance of being open-minded, and how to get more out of them, not how to work hard, and I really urge your audience to learn this.

So, fire, absolute fire. That trailer is absolute fire. Um, yeah, I think it's incredible what that team is able to do. So, from that, you'll get a taste of what we're about to talk about today. And they are very, very interested in understanding what's happening in a world that feels incredibly scary, fast-paced, and uncertain at the moment.

So Steven Bartlett doesn't waste any time. For like, in 3 minutes, he asks like one of the most important questions. So I'll let that roll. This is a very difficult question, but if anyone I was going to ask anyone, it would have to be you. What, what's one of the first things they should be considering at this moment to safeguard their future, their family, their finances? I believe it's a difficult question. I, um, I think it's very clear. They have to understand how the life cycle works. Okay? They have to understand how it works. We were just talking before, you know, in the book, and it was the arc of the life cycle, right? And you have to understand that you're on an adventurous journey, okay? And you have a certain nature, you know, those qualities that make you have your preferences and so on. And then you're going after the things that you like, and you're learning, and it's going to have the ups and downs and so on, and how you approach that. So you ask from the higher level, if I'm looking down, you know, like that life cycle, that arc, what's that journey like? How do you approach it? You know, what are your principles? How do you even learn how to approach it? That's why we're having these conversations, right? So that's clear. You know, what's your nature? How's the journey? How do you find the path that's suitable to your nature? And then you'll go down that path and you'll discover and you'll evolve. What's that like? That's what they need to know. You said, what's your nature? What do you need?

So, I think that's an incredible way to start the podcast. Because one of the things that I'm noticing at the moment is that there are a lot of people out there that are watching podcasts and they're seeing what different people are doing. You're seeing what Ray Dalio is doing. You're seeing what Adam Hudson is doing. You see what I'm doing. You're seeing what these macro gurus are doing, these traders, Anthony Robbins, all these people. And a lot of people are looking at what these other people are doing and they're trying to apply that to their lives. Now, the important question to ask is, are you at that stage of your life? Right? Like, if you're 65 and you're going into retirement, your game plan might be a lot different from my game plan now, who is 40 and who is trying to trade options and try and build my net wealth in order to then invest in later years. Right? So, one of the most important things that I think everybody should start with when they're watching podcasts or they, we should everyone should be really, really super familiar with or aware of is about knowing where we are individually exactly on our life cycle. Where are we? What phase are we in? Are we in that grinding phase? Like, I want to tell my Frankie when she's older to spend her 20s grinding. Work hard. Do extra. Do the things that other 20-year-olds aren't doing at 20 because then when you get to 30 and 40, there, you will already be in a certain place where you can then have more freedom, right? But the common logic today is, you know, go out there and enjoy yourself, travel the world, find yourself. It's like, what? No. Your 20s, between 20 and 30, it's not impossible, but it's unlikely you're going to die of illness. It's unlikely you're going to die by burning the candle at both ends. Your body is so young, and it is able to put up with that stress and that duress during your 20s. As you get to 30 and 40 and 50 and so on, it gets harder. Right? So understanding your life cycle is a very important thing. And also, what is your nature? Right? Especially with trading. I've got a lot of people who, you know, ask me, you know, do you think I could make a living from trading? And, you know, I've never really looked at trading that way. I've never really looked at trading to make a living from it because I think if I did, there would be all this added stress, right? I'm looking at trading as a way to, um, or so to have certain macro bets and to augment those bets to get a better ROI by having trading techniques, by knowing options, by knowing how to use leverage in order to get a higher ROI on the things that I've have a view on. Right.

Um, the other thing that I would add to what Ray has said, and we will definitely go into that in a minute, is where are we in the world right now? Where are we in the debt cycle? Where are we in the generational cycles? And, you know, what does that mean? What does that mean for your inputs? What does that mean for how you spend money? What does that mean for how you save money? What does that mean for how you invest money? And so knowing where we are on that global cycle is very important. I've spoken about it in Fourth Turning terms before, but now I'm going to show you the way that Ray Dalio defines it.

So, what is your honest perspective about the UK at the moment? It's interesting because he starts this segment by going in that Steven Bartlett asks him, "What are your thoughts on the UK at the moment?" And I think this is extremely relevant. You're seeing the Tommy Robinson marches in the UK. You're seeing the debate around immigration. You're seeing the same kind of marches in Australia. You're seeing the same kind of arguments and debate around immigration. It's happening all over the world. And to the outsider looking in, you look at these things and it's easy to say, "Oh, immigration is the problem. Our governments don't care about us. That's the problem. They're trying to win votes, etc." What I think is really important to understand is all the symptoms to the things that you're seeing today with these marches, etc., all come back to the cause, and the cause is where we are in that global 80 to 100-year cycle. And Ray does an amazing job of explaining that, and this is through years of experience and study, and his articulation is almost second to none. So I'm going to play that so you guys can look through that.

Your honest perspective about the UK at the moment? The UK has a financial problem. Uh, the government has a debt problem, and it doesn't have enough money for what it wants to do, what it can do. And so what you see is, and this issue is an issue that's faced by governments around the world. The US has $37 trillion in debt. The UK has a debt problem. France has a debt problem. Australia has a debt problem. Right? You saw in COVID, everyone printed money. All the central banks printed money. Put money into the economy. Now, putting money into the economy, expanding credit in and of itself isn't a problem if your productivity growth is in excess of the debt growth. The problem that we have at the moment is that all the debt and all the credit creation is leaning towards government. It's coming from government, and governments historically and today have not been very productive. Right? And so the debt is growing faster than productivity, and that is what is causing the cocktail of issues that we have at the moment. We need to go through a process over the next 5 to 10 years where the government debt either it comes down, right, or they debase the currency, which is what they're going to do. But you've got to understand that the reason that they're going to do that is to reinflate the private sector. They ultimately, what's going to happen over the next 5 to 10 years is the private sector is going to begin to start to take on some of that debt, okay? Because they can be more productive. They can generate an ROI. They can employ people. They can start businesses. They can create industry, like what you're seeing with AI, energy, data centers, right? And so you need to see that shift happen. But we're in the middle of it, and it's going to take time. All right?

So anyway, let's listen to this explanation of how we got here, what causes it, what are the five factors, the non-nom, people moving, and so on and so forth. And throughout history, when you have these sorts of things, then there's great clashes in people. Okay? And the UK has been in decline since the war. Even the development of the capital markets, kids raise capital there. All of these things are much worse than they are in the United States. And it leads to collapse. Of course, you know, there are five big forces that create a big cycle that lasts about 80 years to date, 50, let's say. And the five big forces are: there's a money, debt, economy force. Okay?

I think it's really important just to interrupt here and say that that is the main force, right? A lot of the symptoms, what you're seeing today stem from that number one, and then everything kind of expands on number one. Debts are spending though. So what happens is when you give somebody credit, they can spend, and then but it also produces debt, and debt has to be paid back. And so what happens is if there's not enough income to pay back the debt, then you have, um, debt rising relative to income. It squeezes out spending. People don't want to hold the debt assets and so on. The UK has gone through that and has gone through that, and it's connected to the second force, and we're all going through this in very good reason. And that is what you're seeing when he says people don't want to hold the assets. That is what you're seeing with bonds. The bond global bond market is $300 trillion of the $1,000 trillion in assets. Real estate is about $400 to $500 trillion. So there's this 30% of the global assets. Nobody wants to hold them anymore because of what he just described. Okay? And that is what is creating stress for governments because governments are the biggest issuers of that debt, and they issue that debt in order to fund economies. Now, if they were productive, that would be great, but they're not.

The second force is the internal political and social force. In other words, like between the left and the right with wealth gaps and opportunities gaps. We have big wealth and opportunities gaps. So when you have big wealth and opportunities gaps, there's conflict, okay? Conflict between the left and the right. And when you get to the situation where you don't believe the system is working for you and you don't trust the system, then there are wars, there are internal conflicts over that and so on.

So the third force is the geopolitical force. In other words, uh, there's a cycle that usually goes from one big war to another big war. So the last war ended in 1945, '44. We began a new order in 1945. And the way that works is that the winners of the war determine how the world war works. They draw borders. They say, "Here's how it's going to work." And that's the new order. Okay? And that continues until there's a rising power challenging an existing power and existing world order, which typically is deteriorating at that time. And then you have international conflict. Okay? These orders, there's a monetary order, they all break down. There's an internal political order, they all break down, and there's a geopolitical order. They all have this conflict, and they work together.

The fourth force throughout history has been acts of nature. Drought, floods, and pandemics, for example, have killed more people than war. And we saw that the pandemic killed a lot of people, but it also added to the top three stresses because it put so much more debt in the system. Lockdowns versus no lockdowns and, uh, mandates, etc., created more internal conflict, right? And so it builds on one another, and that's of nature. Nature has a big effect.

And then number five for is man's indebtedness, particularly of new technologies. Okay? Because if you, this is a big one, and we're going to talk about this more because right now, at the moment, what you're seeing with AI, there's only two players: there's China and there's the USA. And China and the USA are encouraging and spending so much money to win the AI race because it is largely believed that the country that controls AI is going to be the country that is able to call the shots in the new world order. All right? And so you're seeing an arms race in AI, data center, chip building, energy, because you need energy. Um, you're seeing this occur, kind of like the nuclear arms race between Russia and America during the Cold War. See that inventiveness that has raised per capita incomes, GDP per capita, any measures of the living standards over a period of time, and so on. But it is also related to these first four that I set. Those four forces interact.

Now, when we go back to your UK case, okay, they have a financial problem. They, and almost every country now, is dealing with more of that internal political problem for the same reasons: wealth gaps, opportunities gaps, "What do we do? Who's got the power? I don't trust the system," kind of thing. Okay? Number three is we are certainly in an international great powers conflict, right? And it certainly affects Europe and the UK as we're dealing with not only the Ukraine situation but the Russian situation. And what does that mean? And that relates to the money thing because, okay, where's the money coming from to have the Feds? So military temperatures and so on and so forth. So that matters, right? The geopolitical matters. Climate certainly matters. And then, of course, technology and inventions. So everything could be looked through at through that lens.

And so what does this mean for the UK? If all other countries are going through this as well, doesn't it just mean that all countries are going to suffer equally? No. No. No. Because they're not all equal. Okay? Some are more in debt than others. Okay? Some people are more willing to hold their debt than others. Um, some means they have more resources. Some are bigger and more powerful. Some are less powerful. They're different. Okay? They all go in different conditions. Some countries have certain, right? And this is an important point, right? We need to understand, well, as someone living in a country, we need to understand, are is our country one of the countries that's more indebted or less indebted? Okay? Are our, and one of the telltale signs is looking at 30-year bond yields and 10-year bond yields of a particular country. If they start to rise rapidly, then you know that the bond market is basically saying that they don't think that debt is a good thing. Okay? So this is why, um, those long-end bond yields often dictate to central banks what they can do with interest rates as well. Okay? So, important one to have a look at.

Ray Dalio has done an excellent job of laying out the problem. He obviously thinks that the problem in the UK is worse than what it is in the US, right? And I think one of the reasons why he thinks the problem is worse in the UK than what it is in the US is because of what he's about to say. He's about to talk about the type of people that we need to bet on. We need to bet on certain people because governments never get us out of this mess. It's always the private industry. It's always the, uh, new technologies that get us out of the mess. And so this is important for us because, okay, we understand the problem. Now let's say that we no longer believe it's immigration. We no longer believe that we need to go and march for immigration. We no longer believe that our government is going to listen to us if we do. So what do we do, right? What do we do? What does the average person do in order to get through this issue that is facing these countries as a whole? And the next part is really important. And the answer to that is to work out who we need to bet on, right? The USA versus China, who are we betting on? The tech war, who will win? Um, now, the winner of this war is probably not going to be decided for some time, but there are still certain things that we can bet on. If the war is on AI and some of the things that AI needs to survive and thrive is energy, is, um, Nvidia chips, or chips, data center chips in general, all the parts associated with building data centers, then we start to be able to build a picture of who we want to bet on. Right? A couple of my positions currently are based on this. I own Tesla. I'm betting on American robotics, okay? I'm betting on Elon's ability to create data centers, his ability to manufacture the things that are going to be needed for robotics in this future, regardless of whether USA or China wins. That's going to be, I think, a very good bet. Okay? Um, another company that I've invested in is Intel. And you've seen Intel basically get halved down 70% from its all-time highs. Why would I want to invest in Intel? Well, one of the bottlenecks to the data center buildout is the chips. One of the bottlenecks to building more chips isn't money, isn't cap, isn't intelligence. It's the casing for the chips, right? It's the casing and these HMBB, I think it is. But these, these memory chips that go into the data centers, they're one of the bottlenecks producing those. Intel is America's best bet on producing that casing for these chips. That's why Nvidia is investing in them. Okay? It's their capacity. Now, does that mean Intel is going to be successful? Maybe not. But the government has invested in them. US government is invested in him. Nvidia is invested in him. We're at war. It's America need to do whatever they can to make sure that company succeeds. Right? So Nvidia just invested $5 billion into Intel. Just today, Nvidia invested $100 billion into OpenAI. Like, do not be mistaken. That is a play. That is, uh, the government basically, and like, if that goes through, and everyone else involved saying, "This is what we need to do to win. We need to all band together and we need to do what it takes to win this war." You've got David Sachs in the White House who's very influential around all of this kind of stuff. So, the one of the main questions we need to ask, rather than getting caught up on the symptoms, is who do we bet on to make sure we survive the crisis?

So, listen to this next part. Invest the markets is a way of saying, well, I mean, it gets you the money. In other words, you're a guy with iron. You know what happens is, um, we have to enable people. Okay? What works is finding great people, talented people, and identifying those who you want to bet on and enabling them. And that works. That's the most important force. Much more than that is definitely what you're seeing from the current administration. The current administration, love them or hate them, in the US has a lot of problems. They do a lot of things poorly. But this is one of, in my opinion, one of the greatest things that they are doing is they are identifying companies and the people that we need to bet on, and they are betting on them. And that, I think, is fantastic. Or the money, okay? Because you can see who's got the money and power. Where did they come from? Where did Nvidia come from? Where do they all come from? Okay? They're guys like you, entrepreneurs, in a sense, who's been enabled, okay, by because you have the talent. People want to bet on you, and that's the capital market. So they give you money to help enable you because they want to bet on you, and then good things happen.

But are you optimistic about the United States at the moment? The United States is very much a big picture. No, I think it's very much in this issue. So if I go down my list, it definitely has this, uh, debt, money, economy problem. We can get into that. Okay. It definitely has the internal conflict power in which there's a fight between the left, you know, our left and the right due to wealth and values gaps, and people not believing that the system will work for them. And so democracy is at risk because they don't believe the rules. They're not going to follow the rules, in the sense, they don't believe the rules are. Number three, it's of course, the leading one side in this great power conflict of the world, right? In other words, yes, between China and America, the United States and the one side, let's say, and China and the allies, their allies on the other side. I mean, in the news, you just saw the meetings of, okay, this is really important. I'm going to let him speak, and then I'm going to talk about this because I think what you're seeing here with Putin, Xi, Kim Jong-un, and then Andrews was actually there, believe it or not. Uh, Modi from India. This is extremely important. Let's see what he has to say, and then I'm going to add a couple of things on it. Dean Putin, Modi, and that group over there walking down, you know, and okay, so now it should be pretty clear how the sides are lining up. Okay? You, it's always better to be in a place that's not in one of those wars, right? Stay out of wars. Um, and of course, climate has an effect, and of course, then we have technology. The United States and China aren't in the big technology competitions. The others are really not in the game. They don't have the money, this innovation, and talent, in a sense, to play at that scale. And so, so we have a great, you know, technology war, which can be used to create great advances, but at the same time could be used to break conflicts. And so now the question is going to be, who wins the technology war? Because the winner of the technology war is going to win all wars. Okay? In other words, they'll win the economic war. They'll win the geopolitical war because technology, and I'm not saying anything that hasn't repeated through history. This is also why I think that people, the macro and Wall Street commentators who are going around saying this AI thing is a bubble, it's a bubble, it's a bubble. Yes. Yes, it could be a bubble, right? But you have to understand what's at stake here. This is not like the tech bubble. This, there's global dominance and world power at stake. So while it might be a bubble, this bubble is being driven by demand-side economics. The reality is, is I heard, you know, Sam Altman today when they were talking about the investment by Nvidia, basically said something along the lines of, I can't remember the exact examples. He said, "But what we've realized is that there's going to come a point, there's going to come a point with AI where we're going to have to decide, do we solve for cancer, or do we solve for productivity and the environment?" That we, it's going to come a point where they're going to have to make choices like that, and they're only going to be able to do one with the amount of compute and capacity that they have." And it's like, it's like the shopping trolley dilemma when you've got to choose who to save, right? Basically, what Sam Altman is saying is that we, with any clear conscience, can't come up to these points where we can decide who to save or what to save and pick one. And so the only option is to increase the capacity, right? And it's important to increase that capacity because with that, there's going to be productivity. With that, there's going to be longer life. With that, there's going to be cure of disease and illnesses. With that, there's going to be a thriving economic system. Right? So it's an important war that's happening. And I think all the bubble talk misses this. Yes, there is going to be a bubble at some point. There is going to be a correction at some point. Okay? And so you do have to use discernment. You do have to pick the right horses. You do have to make sure that your investment thesis is sound to make it through those. But if you look at companies like Amazon, etc., all went down 90% after the tech bubble in '99, 2000. All right? And so it's just important to have that framework in mind.

Others in that population would say, those who, let's say, are not getting, are having a food stamp program cut off or having other programs cut off that they're dependent on, would say, "Wait a second, that's not representing me." And so we have gone, that population has gone to significant number behind him, and our devotees, they're all in. Okay? At the same time as we have the other side, which will have their devotees. You know, we're in New York City. Okay.

All right. So the next part, he's kind of talking about red versus blue. The people that are behind Trump and the people that are behind, you know, leaders like the new guy that's running for mayor in New York, who wants to basically bring in a socialist and communist regime. And Ray explains the thing that he thinks is going to be required to solve the problem, to fix it all. And what he basically says is that we need a strong political middle. Someone that can bring everybody together, explain the patriotic duties and the things that we need to do in order to get through the mess and in order to increase productivity and to get us to the other side. But he's not optimistic that in this polarized world that that is going to be possible. But let's have a listen to what he says anyway.

And the upcoming mayor election will be an example of the two sides. Okay? And they will try to use the system, but there's a question: Will the system have enough support to work? Okay? But that's what we have. Just, just because the UK in particular, if you were to try and fix it, what would you be aiming at? I say this because we do have a millionaire exodus that's widely reported in the UK, where I think this year we're set to lose 16,000, roughly 16,000 millionaires. Um, when you look at the big, big countries like China, America, the UAE, the UK, we're losing more millionaires than anybody else. And I was wondering if you think it's favorable, and if you were in charge of the UK, what you... And what's interesting to note that even though Australia is going through some of the same problems, we are actually one of the countries with Dubai, etc., that are getting more millionaires come to our country, and that is courtesy of our direct links with China because a lot of those millionaires are coming from China and India. You might aim at first. It's diff, you know, first of all, if you go back to the basic problem, which is there's too much debt, there are deficits, there's differences in education and opportunity levels and so on. The most important thing that you can have is a strong middle, political middle, political middle to be analytically strong and also strong enough to get the people to do what needs to be done, even if they don't want to do it, to get to be productive. Now, that's an easy thing to say. It's not an easy thing to do, but you do need that strong middle, and you do need to convey to people that you need to have the strong middle to change productivity, and you know, and are you in it? Are you in it? Are you patriotic and in it? And, you know, but you look at history, how did the United States come to be the United States? People will go to the places that are better than them, than stay in the places that are worse for them. This is fundamental, right? Okay. So, you have to make the place better. Okay.

Now, I would say also, you can, and this is one of the biggest pushbacks I think we get in the comments of the Unemployable podcast, is, you know, people saying that the wealthy and the rich, etc., are the problem. And, you know, unfortunately, as I've spoken about ad nauseam, they're the only ones that can fix the issues by creating the technology, by creating the opportunities through things like AI. We have to empower our greatest and smartest minds. We don't want our greatest and smartest minds leaving the country. That's why the UK is screwed because all their greatest and smartest minds are leaving, right? You know, in Australia, you know, whether you're on the side of China or not, at least we are getting intelligent, wealthy people coming to the country that can create productivity, right? And so I don't know the answer, but one thing that I do know is that the government is definitely not the solution. You know, if you go back and you read through history, you will see that the government cannot solve this problem. What you end up getting is socialist, communist states that break down and crash and decay. All right.

And so a strong private sector, uh, investing in people, investing in technology, creating zones like Texas, creating zones in Australia where innovation is encouraged, is what we need. That is what we need. Not more regulation. Not more regulation. The more regulation that we get, the more that we strangle society, the more we strangle the ability to get through this. And that is one of our biggest, or my biggest frustrations with Australia at the moment is that it seems that we're strangling this opportunity. Whereas in America, for all its problems, there are still regions, you know, Texas, Florida, where they are encouraging this kind of innovation. Okay? And so, you know, and China is just a bit, you know, for all China's faults, you know, they're acting more like the capitalist West. They're encouraging innovation, encouraging robotics, they're encouraging, um, data centers, chips, rare earths, you know, they're playing a fantastic long game at the moment. Take pockets and go into the pocket and let it spread out. But you also have to have this equal education. You know, you've got to strive for equal opportunity. But anyway, it's a difficult question that I'm afraid I'm incapable of, um, solving. And, you know, that's why there's so much angst at the moment because even the smartest people in the world don't have an easy solution for solving the problem. And so this is now where I want to turn everybody's attention to. You've seen the bigger picture. What do we do as individuals? And this is where I think we can have the biggest impact. We can't solve the problem. It's unlikely that if you're wealthy, smart, educated, that you're going to go into politics because the problem is almost unsolvable. And so what do we do as individuals now to kind of work through this? And I posted, I posted something recently on my Instagram. I said, uh, that it was the old thing. It used to be buy gold, land, and Bitcoin, right? Or in America, it's like buy guns, guns, land, and gold, or something like that. But I've changed that. For me, it's now, it's now gold, Bitcoin, and a second passport. Community. It's gold, Bitcoin, and the community. For me personally, I don't invest in gold. I invest in Bitcoin. It's technology, technology, Bitcoin, and community, right? And so these are the things that we need to start thinking about for ourselves individually, right? To get through what is about to come.

So I'll go into the next bit where Ray basically says, you know, it's been 80 years since World War II. Do you think much about time frames? Because when I was watching, when I was going through The Changing World Order, there seems to be some consistent or predictable time frames when these transitions happen. Do you think, just on that, the book The Fourth Turning, which I think is incredible, talks about why these cycles last 80 to 100 years. So it's based obviously on the human life cycle. And in the Fourth Turning, there's four stages: there's the crisis. That's the fourth turning. And that's where we are now. The next stage is the high, right? The stage after that is the awakening. The stage after that is deterioration. And then we go back into crisis. And the reason that we have those cycles is it depends on when you were born and when you grew up, what you had to go through. So the millennials at the moment are going through a crisis, and that affects how we see the world in our later years, which affects policy, which affects the way that people see the world because the millennials will be in power in 20 to 30 years, right? And so they're the ones creating policy, and that will be affected by what we've been through in the crisis era. But let's hear Ray's explanation coming up.

Well, they're long-term big cycles, right? It's like a life cycle. On average, they are about a life cycle, about 80 years, but it's not predetermined. Just like your life cycle is not predetermined. Like, if you take care of yourself and you, you know, I don't know, don't smoke, eat well, exercise, and so on and so forth, then you will probably have a longer life cycle than if you don't take care of yourself. And it's, um, kind of like that, you know? And so you see them in history, they evolve, but you can see the symptoms. Okay? You can see the actions and the symptoms, which like taking a physical, then gives you a sense of where they are in their life cycle. We're 80 years from World War II. 10 years from World War II, and you're seeing the symptoms. Yeah. Symptoms are clear. They're all right. See charts all the worried about if you're in the United States, right? Like everywhere. UK, Australia. All right. We're seeing this shit everywhere, and it is something to be concerned about.

What do we do about it? And then the question is, how you as an individual handle it. How do I as an individual handle it? Well, first of all, I think I think you have to be aware of the situation and the risks. But me and my family, though, in terms of risks and how I should counteract those risks. Is it a case of me saving for a rainy day? Is it? That's part of it. Yeah. Um, there's a saying in Hong Kong, a Chinese saying, which is, "A smart rabbit has three holes." And what that means is, you can see, is it the UK or the US? And I can then move to the better place and get out of the place that's a terrible place. So, can I successfully be an immigrant or whatever and change my location? Throughout history, that's been important. So the ability, you know, we've been talking about that a lot on the Unemployable podcast at the moment. That mobility is step one. Having that mobility just in case, right? Like, it's so important. And, you know, Ray articulates it so great, and that's why I just thought it was so important to break down this podcast. And obviously, everyone should go and watch the full thing as well. To go to good places and away from bad places. That's part of it. Secondly, building your financial strength is important, which has to do with how you earn, spend, and save. That will determine the amount. And then what you do with that amount is invest. And how you invest, uh, is also important. So if you have your financial ability and you can make the move, and then you have knowledge, you know, about what's happening so that you can change things, those are the things you need.

So, and Ray doesn't actually talk about investing, what to invest in, during this podcast, even throughout the last 30 minutes. But if you hear him in other episodes, he has become an advocate for gold. He has become an advocate for Bitcoin and uncorrelated things. And I think it's important that the mobility thing is one. So, your ability to live somewhere and also to transfer easily, port, and transfer your capital somewhere legally, of course, is important. He spoke about earning, spending, and saving. So, we're not saying that everyone needs to go out and start a business, right? And we're not saying that everyone needs to become an options trader, but understanding how you earn your money, how you spend it smartly, and how you save it is important, you know, because with everything that we've just spoken about, talked about, raised, talking about, you do not want to be saving this money, your money. I do not want to be saving my money in the bank. I want to be invested in assets that are going to outperform these issues, that are going to benefit from the issues that we're discussing. Gold is the one that I would look into, the steadier, less volatile of the things. Property, but there's other inherent property problems, taxes, etc. So there's gold, and then there's the new, new age way, which is Bitcoin. And so these are the things that I would encourage you guys to go out there and research based on the context that we provided in this episode. Knowledge is obviously important because without knowledge, you can't, um, discern or dissect any of all of this. And, you know, for me, the one that he doesn't, that we don't mention, that's a little bit harder, requires a little bit more work, it's a little bit more active, is investing in technology. Who to bet on during this time? I love the next question. The reason I love the next question is because for a long time, I've been basically saying that if you're just starting out, if you're in your 20s, that you should be saving in Bitcoin. Be, even if you are saving for a house, you should be saving in Bitcoin. You should be allocating to Bitcoin every week, every month, every year, whatever it is, and saving.

In Bitcoin rather than saving for a house deposit in the bank. Um, many reasons as to why that is. Um but listen to Ray add one more.

So on the first point about a smart having three holes, is it therefore a better decision at this point in time to not to not buy a house because a lot of people end up buying a house and it anchors them to to a place and it means that they then have to pay into a mortgage? So a lot of lot of financial advice most of us have growing up is when you get enough money to buy a house, move in, pay that mortgage for 25 years. But if I'm in a new economy, in a new world, and flexibility and ability to get up and go and move, there's there's value to that. The ability to move capital matters, and if you look at history, this has been an important consideration. Yes. So it matters. So if you're nailing yourself down, that's your primary capital and it's nailed down there, then that's does limit your flexibility.

And on the point of earning, spending, and saving, wonder what you you're a you're a a father, aren't you? Yeah. What what advice are you giving to children about earning money in in the current world where they should focus their skills that are most valuable to acquire, the technology? And this is great because this isn't direct advice, but it's very useful advice, especially for those out there that maybe aren't sure or are thinking about a career change. We talked about the being one of the bad people to build your career for the reasons you described. Well, that's, you know, that's kind of like the particular that you asked me for, that's below the level of the higher level. Okay. The higher level is I have a principle. Make your work and your passion the same thing and don't forget about the money part. Okay. If you make your work and your passion the same thing so that you're really enjoying your work, you'll have an enjoyable, satisfactory life and you'll probably be better at your career that, um, as a result, might advance and so on. So you have a happier life and you will have a more probably more successful life. But it is true that the careers that you choose will have financial implications. And if you say, "I want to be a poet," or something along those lines, you better consider the financial implications of that. That doesn't mean that you have to go make a ton of money because I think that that's I think a lot of people fall into that trap that they think the money is, um, like vast amounts of money is vast amounts of success, and that's not true. In other words, is your work and your passion the same thing? So I think that what brings people happiness is meaningful work and meaningful relationships. Okay. If you have meaningful work, now this is this is incredible what he's about to talk about, uh, meaningful work, meaningful relationships, and community. For me, that is the number one reason to be considering moving. If you're out there considering potentially moving just to save on tax, I think I'm not sure that that's enough reason or motivation. I think the biggest reason for having the ability to be mobile, for having the ability to move your capital and be mobile, have mobility is if we are living in a fractured world or a fractured society, you want to go where people treat you best, right? I think that is common sense. So listen to this. You know that you're into and you know you're passionate towards the same thing and you have meaningful relationships, whether through that work or beyond, you're going to have probably a great life. Okay. And so you have to keep that in mind and it doesn't have much correlation past a certain level of money, uh, doesn't have much correlation with that well-being with the amount of money they have. And if you see studies across societies and you'll see that past that certain basic level, there's no correlation between the amount of money they have and how much happiness they have or well-being. Okay, that the highest level of correlation across societies and studies of happiness and well-being is community. Do you have a sense of community? Do you have those around you or your community? This is the one. You'll live longer that way. You'll have a more joyous life and it'll be a better outcome.

But anyway, so thinking of so like I just really want to double click on that, right? Like because a lot of the times we're watching these podcasts, watching these money shows, we're watching all this stuff and we're kind of missing the forest for the trees and the forest is tribe is community, right? If that is the motivator, community and shared mission and purpose, then you're going to work it out. You're going to be fine. You don't need to worry about making huge sums of money. If you can just be around the soil that you belong in, that you're going to thrive most in, that is the answer. That is where I believe everybody should be starting from from that thought. Okay. So, I thought that one was super important about those things I think is important. Based on your life cycles in this book, principles, your guided journey, create your own principles to get the work and life you want. Do you think you have to play different games in different seasons? Yep, we do have to play different games in different seasons. We don't have to talk about that one. All right.

So, I'm going to finish I'm going to finish this off with basically two more parts. And and I think these parts are super important because he Ray talks about pain plus reflection equaling progress. And I think that's super important. Playing the game, having meaningful work, meaningful relationships. And then he talks about his system and the best way to deal with pain. Right? And that's by building principles and building systems, okay? In order to overcome your shortfalls, overcome emotions, in order to deal with the system that you're in. And so I'll quickly play those clips. And then the last one, he talks about he talks about him being more spiritual than religious. And it's amazing at the moment because you're seeing this great debate between religions, between certain, um, parts of the world that have different religions. We on the unemployable podcast had a debate about Muslim and Christianity. And I think the way that Ray ties back the importance of at least being spiritual, I think is a really important signpost to guide us all individually through these battles and these questions that are currently being asked of us. So I'm going to finish with those three parts and then we're going to wrap it up.

Pain plus reflection equals progress. Okay? Your best learnings come from the pain. It's a message. Pay attention. Learn how reality works and how to deal with it differently. So you have principles for dealing with reality better. And I learned that process and from that process, my company Bridgewater became the largest hedge fund in the world. Um, extremism. You know, I think it's important, especially today. I think a lot of people are doing the best they can, but they're struggling to deal with the reality of the situation. And that's why they're getting caught up in the online wars and the things that are going on, right? And if we can better understand the situations and deal with the reality situations, then maybe we don't get distracted by those wars. Just for context, we're not talking about money. I understand it, but you're a prolific philanthropist. Also, people said that your net worth is in the $10 billion dollars, and I'm sure there's some people that collect this conversation aren't aware of the scale of what you built up and the scale of Bridgewater to capital and how prolific and famous it is in the investing world. In that 50-year life arc, one of the things you mentioned is pain. All of us will encounter pain, and you said pain plus reflection, reflection equals progress. How have you learned to deal with pain? You've had a lot of pain in all facets of life as you've lived the life and continue to. How, what's the best principle for dealing with pain? But first of all, um, to calm yourself down and to get centered. Meditation has had a big beneficial effect on my life. We can get into meditation in a minute how it has. But the ability to, you know, in a sense, calm yourself down and when the time is right, to reflect on what's happened, both to understand how reality works. You know, you want to be a hyper-realist. I understand how reality works. Therefore, I need to do this under this set of circumstances, which means developing principles. And so what I did when I would do that at any time, and whenever I would think, "What, what should I do?" whether painful or not, I would pause, reflect on, you know, what should I do if that happened again? And that's how I would write down my principles. And what I think that's incredible advice. And Ray goes on to speak about in 2020 how he had to deal with the worst thing that could happen to a person, and that's to lose a child. He lost a 42-year-old son in a car accident in 2020. All right. And you know that what I did was I wrote down a lot of principles. A lot of principles. If this happens, that happens. And and you guys, you know, everyone should go out there and get Ray Dalio's book Principles. I think it's one of the best eye books I've ever read, and it's one of the books that I would give my 18-year-old self for sure. All right.

The serenity prayer. Winding it up, getting towards the end. Decision. How influential was transcendental meditation in your success? Oh, enormously success. Enormously significant. Very, very significant. In other words, that way of saying seeing that, and how, and by the way, there's, you know, there's I, I would say there's a serenity prayer. The serenity prayer is: God, give me the serenity to accept that which I can't control, and give me the power to control that which I can, and the wisdom to tell the difference. Okay. And so to how you approach these things, we're talking about reflection. You ask me reflection. Okay. If you can reflect in that quality way, then you deal with anything. And I've, I've dealt with, uh, the worst possible thing. Um, I lost a son. Okay. And I would have rather died. I would have rather lost everything to lose my son. So it's the worst possible thing. And and then to see what it did, you know, the damage and the harm and from the family. Terrible. Okay. Then to go through that with meditation, with reflection, and so on, uh, was invaluable. And people have their own challenges, but to be able to do it that way, I, I really urge your audience, I urge you to, uh, to learn that, that's very helpful. How, how did that tragedy change your, your perspective and your, your principles in any way on life, on on happiness, on success, on all these things that you bring about? Well, it's again, you know, I go above it and, um, I reflect on the life arc and I realize at that higher level that that's what the life arc is like. If you'll, in all my books, there's this ar, um, arcing, this arcing here. There's a bigger version of it. Uh, yeah, there's this arcing. Okay, I don't know if you're seeing. Okay, whatever it is. And that's what life and evolution is like to me. Meaning you make advances, you will have setbacks. Okay? If you reflect well and you learn how reality works and how you will deal with it, you will get past that and go on. The most successful people I know, um, are able to practice incredible stoicism, and the majority of them have this philosophical outlook on life. And so I just think it's, it's another important signpost, and that's just what it is, that's just the way life is. And if you do that well, then that's your best possible life. Are you religious? Are you a religious person? I'm not religious, but I'm spiritual. Okay. The Dalai Lama, who I had the pleasure of meeting, called told me, uh, and I agree with, uh, that religions are typically, um, a mix between superstitions and spirituality. There's half of it is an element that nobody knows, but there is the way people should deal with each other. There is karma. Okay. All religions, there's a part of them that says, "Do unto others as you have them do unto you," or "What goes around comes around." And then we get to the particulars. Okay. And it is true that if we work well together, that even little things I can do to help you can make a big difference in your life, and little things that you can do to help me make a big difference in our lives. And so it's practical, and it is also joyous. Okay, that creates a relationship. And we talked earlier about how that meaningful relationship is like the source of great happiness. But when you have a community and you do that, you have a better society. And almost all religions will tell you that there'll be elements of those. And when I believe in spirituality, what I also mean is, uh, we're all part of this greater whole. Okay? We're all part of the greater whole. And if you could see yourself as part of the greater whole and love the greater whole and whatever that is, spirituality really. Okay? And so I will go through my life arc, okay? And I will die, and I'm comfortable with that. Okay. In that, okay, it's all part of the greater whole, you know, nature, whatever it is. That's true. I can't tell you about other things, but I do believe in the things I just told you. I think that's such an incredible explanation and it's such valuable advice, especially in the times that we're currently in. And I think that's why you're starting to see things like religion make a comeback.

All right, the last thing is, um, the greatest tragedy of mankind. What Ray considers the greatest tragedy of mankind, and I think a lot of people are suffering from that at the moment, especially with the multipolar world, the polarized world that we're in. So, we're going to finish on that. And be open-minded while you do it. Yeah. Open-minded. Yeah. I see, uh, the importance of being open-minded and assertive at the same time. Um, I, I watch people becoming so tied to their own opinions. Like this is the greatest tragedy of mankind. The greatest tragedy of mankind because it so easily can be fixed is holding a strong opinion that's wrong that you could have made right, better. If you were open to learning more, if you said, "I want to be stress-tested. I want my thinking to be stress-tested. I want to make sure that I'm making a better decision," and so I'll be challenged. But a lot of people view that challenging like a fight. It's not a fight. If somebody holds a different opinion, it should prompt a curiosity. You know, I don't know, am I wrong or are they wrong? There's a 50% chance. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong, right? So, it should prompt curiosity and an exchange to try to make sure that you're seeing the whole picture and so on. But subliminal instincts are, I'm going to stick with it and I'm going to have a fight. So, there it is, guys. Like, that's only the first hour, but I think that's the most important hour of the pod. Um, they have the highlights in my opinion. And the reason that I wanted to do an episode on it because is because I feel like it's tying so much of what's relevant in my life at the moment, and I know that is relevant in some of the people that are following me on this journey or watching the pod, uh, or following the unemployable pod. And so, you know, if I think you can watch this episode with an open mind and listen to some of the things that Ray is saying, and if you take nothing but that last point that, um, the greatest tragedy of mankind is holding on to strong opinions that may be wrong, right? Like, um, if you take nothing but that from the podcast, I think you're going to be doing amazingly well. But yeah, I just think that's a playbook. Uh, it's a master class. It's a playbook, and it touches on everything. It touches on all of the most important things that you're seeing happening in today's day and age. And I know that a lot of people out there are confused, are confused. And that's creating frustration. It's creating stress. It's creating anxiety. And I think we need more voices like Ray in the world. And we need to be willing to listen to those voices. And I think that, uh, you know, a one-hour episode like this can help to alleviate some of that confusion, and it can help to start putting people back on the path of happiness and fulfillment. So this episode was a little bit different. I hope you enjoyed it, guys. Uh, if you found it useful, please give it a like, give me a subscribe, and share it with someone else in your life who you find who you think might be able to benefit from it. Thanks. And I'll see you guys next.