Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will of course talk about BTC. We will see if we have any setups that are executing or not. We will of course talk about Ether and regarding Altcoins, I will be asked to analyze SOL, RSR, and XPL. So we will look at these cryptocurrencies, the setups that can simply execute.
So, I'm starting here with BTC. We had a very good close yesterday, as we had the re-entry into this resistance zone, $112,500. We are back above it, we are also back above the medium-term, short-to-medium-term moving averages, whether it's the 15-minute tunnel, the 1-hour tunnel, the 4-hour tunnel. And currently, we are pulling back to this level. We can clearly see from a price action perspective, we have a wick that came back to re-tag $112,500. Logically, this zone that acted as support, we went back below it, it acted as resistance, we went back above it, it acted as support, then we went back below it. By re-entering it, we are supposed to flip it and it should now act as support. So it's possible that we have a validated bottom here. In any case, it looks like it, considering that we are back above the moving averages, that we are flipping this resistance level into support.
Now, two things. First, we must not re-enter this level because that would mean we would flip this level back into resistance, and the last time we broke it, we went much lower. So I think if we retrace to revisit this low, this low here. Now, as long as this level acts as support, the most probable thing is to go back to this extremity, and it's possible that BTC enters a larger phase of sideways movement, a bit like we experienced at this level. Okay. Either at this level or at this level. In any case, we see that BTC is lateralizing much more than in previous cycles.
After, you must accept that regardless of the markets, we spend much more time in a range than in a trend, whether it's cryptocurrencies, traditional finance, forex, in short, regardless, the market in general spends much more time in a range than in a trend. So, this is something you need to get used to. That's it, simply. Currently, as I said, we are re-entering this level and above all, we are finding interesting momentum in the short term. We are going back to the 15-minute tunnel. This is what I told you. As long as the 3-minute tunnel, here the blue tunnel, holds, it's better to look for longs in the very, very short term when it breaks. Okay, we will have a high chance of going back to the 15-minute tunnel. This is done, this is done at this level. Okay.
Now, this is a level that must hold, but here, we are in a good location zone to look for longs and aim for a retracement to at least revisit this peak. The fact of using these moving averages simply allows us to have reference points, to know okay, what are the levels, what are the interesting zones because the goal of a trader is not to trade anywhere. And I see many beginners making this mistake of being in front of a chart and wanting to take opportunities everywhere. That is, no matter where the price is, they want to enter anywhere, on a signal with the RSI or whatever. No, the most important thing is always to frame your charts, to know where you want to position yourself, simply, whether it's at support levels, resistance levels, there are many ways to use, to frame a chart. It can be moving averages, it can be pivot points here, it can be supports and resistances, whatever. For some, it can be imbalance zones, order blocks. So, I know there are many terms like that that are used. Now, some terms are a bit like marketing, they mean the same thing compared to other terms. What I generally like, support levels, Vegas tunnels, these are simply moving averages, it's an indicator you can add. So, you put here multi-timeframe Vegas and you can add it here. And I also use pivot points if you want two indicators in one, you can add this one. Pivot points also give us very interesting levels, whether they are weekly, daily, or monthly levels. So, BTC is doing quite well, which is what it's doing for us.
Don't hesitate to re-evaluate your portfolio from time to time, in case we have pumps like this or dumps, whether it's on BTC, Ether, or altcoins. You must have a kind of diagram, a diagram of... So, can I draw a circle like that? Perfect. So, you must, I didn't want it that big, perfect. You must know globally how your portfolio is distributed. Now, it depends on the number of cryptocurrencies you have. Honestly, if you are a beginner, I recommend not having more than 6 cryptocurrencies, that's already enough. If you have some experience, a bit of time, 10-12 maximum, grand maximum. Someone who has 50 cryptocurrencies, that's pointless. So, you must do this work of creating an Excel file, using online software, whatever, to know okay, what is my cryptocurrency allocation? How do you have on one side, as we see, it's often your cash-to-crypto balance, okay? Which is simply how much percentage of cash you have compared to your cryptocurrencies. So, let's say you have $50,000 worth of crypto, $50,000 in cash. You have a 50/50 balance, of course. If you have €100,000 in crypto and 0% cash, you are at 100 on one side, 0 on the other, etc. When you have determined your percentage, let's say you have 30% cash here, okay? 70% crypto. So globally, you are well exposed but you still have flexibility in case of a retracement.
After, the work that needs to be done is to know, among these cryptocurrencies, what is your exposure. You might have, I'm saying things randomly, it's to help you understand, but globally, you might have 15% in BTC. Okay, at this level, 15%, oops, if I manage, 15% in BTC, you might have on the other side here, 20% in Ether. You do this work. Okay? And the most important thing is if you can, with Excel, you just have to enter numbers, or even now there are tools that allow you to directly retrieve the price of an asset, a cryptocurrency, with an API and transfer it to Excel. This allows you to have this kind of pie chart here, which is up to date. You do this for all altcoins and it allows you to have a good visualization, and you might have 20% of Ether at the end of the week, and Ether will pump, or it will go from 20% to maybe 21%, 18%, etc. Having this kind of tool, okay, allows you to take a step back and see if you are under-exposed or over-exposed on an asset. If tomorrow, let's say, you entered a meme coin, okay, you entered a meme coin, you have 30% of this meme coin. Very good. For whatever reason, the meme coin explodes, it goes up 10x. Automatically, this 3% will not remain 3%. It might become, I don't know, maybe 14%, 12%, whatever. But in your strategy, you must know okay, what is the limit you should not exceed.
I know, for the altcoins I own, whether it's BTC, Ether, whether it's Chainlink, Hyperliquid, Solana, cryptocurrencies like that, I know my maximum threshold that I don't want to exceed. If tomorrow Chainlink explodes and I find myself with 20% of Link in my portfolio, no, there will be what's called a relocation. Okay, I will have a portfolio rebalancing, meaning I will rebalance the different allocations I have, whether it's between my cash, whether it's between other altcoins, because I don't want to have a high exposure to one cryptocurrency. If you don't have this, you are navigating a bit in the dark. Okay, this is the minimum. After, we can go into much more detail. I'm not talking about entry prices, exit prices, TPs, stop losses, I'm not talking about cash or which stablecoin you have. Is it in DAI? Is it in USDC, in USDT? I'm not talking about staking this cash, which can also be done. I'm not talking about staking cryptocurrencies. A part is staked, a part is not staked. So, I can go into much more detail, create a big diagram. But this is the foundation. I won't go into more detail, but what I'm showing you here is the most important thing. If you don't do this, if you don't have this curiosity and this, well, this ability, this ease of setting up these very simple tools with an Excel file, it doesn't take a lot of time, you are navigating a bit blindly and you won't have a real vision of your portfolio and you won't make good decisions because everything we do here is to facilitate the information of our portfolio, of our investments, and then to make better decisions. Okay? Investing is not just buying and selling, it's not just doing technical analysis, no, it's management. Okay? And this is an important point. So, I encourage you to do this work. Okay? Take the time so you have a better visualization of your portfolio globally and you will simply make better decisions.
So, this is a little lesson that allows you, especially for beginners, to know what needs to be put in place for you. Me, this is not something I implemented. The first times I started to be interested, not specifically in crypto, but in other assets, but even when I started buying cryptocurrencies a while ago, I didn't start making an Excel file like this. No, but it comes later. The sooner you implement it, the sooner you will have interesting tracking. So, BTC. I don't have much more to add. It's quite quick. What we want is for this level to hold. If we retrace and re-enter it, then we will have to monitor the pullback at the level of this accumulation phase we had at the Ether level.
So, Ether, as I said, is a bit weaker than BTC. It pumped, it is also pulling back to its 15-minute tunnel and its 1-hour tunnel. We have a small bearish flow that we've put here. We came to test the previous daily high, which is simply here. Someone who doesn't want to use, for example, my tunnels. Okay. Well, they are not mine, but the Vegas tunnels, the moving averages, because they can't manage. I already have people who told me, "Nico, when you use them, it looks super simple, but after months and months of use, I can't manage." And you shouldn't force it. There are indicators that you will be comfortable with, others not at all. It's unique to each person. We all have a different profile. But you can take a very simple indicator. It's not an indicator, it's simply the extremities that allow you to know where the previous lows are, where the previous daily highs are. And you can set this to weekly, monthly, whatever. It simply allows you to have extremities where we often have market reactions. The previous daily highs and previous daily lows are very good location zones where, when we test them, we often have a buying reaction and a selling reaction.
I have setups. I have a setup that works very, very well with this tool, a setup that I share in my training, in my program, and that works very well. And the people who join the program generally use this setup quickly. It's quite simple to implement, it's not complicated, the rules are very precise, and it has very good results. But yes, previous daily lows and previous daily highs can clearly help you in your trading. After, be careful, one mistake not to make is to constantly change indicators. You take a trade, your trade is a loser, you say, "That's it, this indicator is bad." No, no, no, not at all. Try to use your indicators consistently, okay? Over a long period of time. Refine your indicators, of course, but don't change them overnight, it's pointless. So, Ether, as I said, it pumped well. Okay. At this level, yes, at this level, it's logical, $3900, which is our long-term level. For now, nothing to report. The pump is present, but not as present as BTC. We are trading above the short-term moving averages. It would be good to get back above the H4 tunnel and above this level. Here, we have an important level that must be re-entered. This support level that now acts as resistance and this H4 tunnel where we would like to get back above to have a convergence of moving averages in the direction of the trend and hope to reach much higher, $4600, $4700. So, I remain bullish on Ether. I remind you that it has been the most important exposure in my entire portfolio for a while. If I redraw the pie chart you saw earlier, it's my biggest crypto. Anyway, it's very simple for me. 80% of my portfolio, 80% of my portfolio is 80, yes, 70-80, numbers are next to me, I can't see them. I would have to show you files, but globally BTC, Ether, Hyperliquid, Solana. These are globally the four cryptocurrencies where I have the most exposure. And these four cryptocurrencies, I've been talking about them for a while, for me, they are delivering my biggest performance. At the same time, it's normal, it's my biggest, my biggest exposure. But even if I take other cryptocurrencies I have, for example, Chainlink, Chainlink has performed well, but when I compare it to Ether, to Solana, Hyperliquid, it doesn't compare.
Now, some will say, "Yes, you're not taking too much risk, you're on the most capitalized altcoins, perhaps." Except that when we compare the performance of BTC, Ether to Solana, well, most altcoins perform worse than these four cryptocurrencies. Now, I understand the mentality of some who say, "Yes, being on a low-cap altcoin is more interesting because we have more upside potential, we can achieve better performance," which is technically true. A low-cap altcoin can perform better than BTC. BTC, from now on, cannot do a 10x. It's not possible. Its market cap is too large. Low-cap altcoins can, except that when we look at altcoins, very few of them perform better than the four I mentioned here. Yes, there will be some, but it's very, very rare. So, that's why for me, choosing to own these four cryptocurrencies for 75-80% of my wallet is a very good choice. After, I have others, but the others will be 1%, 2%, 3% of my portfolio maximum. I will have Chainlink, I will have Tao, I will have RSR, I will have Axelar, I will have Atom, I will have DOT. These are somewhat "junk" cryptocurrencies that I have 1-2% maximum, which are no longer performing significantly, which I keep like that, but I don't expect to make big multiples with them for now. I don't have others in mind. I might have one or two more, but CRBX, you see, that's what I was telling you, I won't have 20 cryptocurrencies, it's pointless. 10-12 maximum. So, Ether, same, I have nothing else to say, rather an educational video, and we will especially analyze your altcoins today.
So, precisely, I was asked for an analysis of Solana. I remain bullish on Solana. Why? Because we have a pullback underway in an uptrend. We are here in a phase where we continue to make higher lows and higher highs. So, on that, it's quite good. We have exited this sideways phase. Globally, I see the range on Solana in this phase, the range. And I still have Solana. I had, well, I exposed myself to Solana really at $30. I bought here, but that was really in the past, I'm talking about this cycle. I differentiate between previous cycles. That means if I talk about my positions, I won't talk about certain positions on Solana that I might have taken during the bottom of May 2021. Yes, for example, because that's another cycle. Okay. If I were to talk about my positions, I would also talk about the previous cycle. Okay. And I'm talking about this cycle. I positioned myself on Solana at $30. I took profits partially during this pump here. I took profits again in this zone. I entered when we went back below $120. From $120 to, I have orders from $120 to $80. I executed 60-70% because we didn't reach $80. I took profits again at $180 at this level. And here, I'm letting a part run a bit because I like what Solana is doing, as I said. If I put our volume profile here, we can clearly see the extremities. We have exited above our value area high. We are pulling back, we are rejecting. So, we might be seeing a shift in value, meaning we could have a real exit from this sideways phase to make a new ATH. It's entirely possible. Now, don't expect Solana to give you another 30x or 40x like it did here. I don't even know the performance here anymore, but it's stratospheric. We went from $10 here to $300. So, we can talk about a 30x. No, it's not possible for me in this cycle. If the performance is already crazy, we could set a top here and stop. Okay. If we really have to push on Solana, maximum $400-$500. I can't see Solana going above that. From here, we would be at about a 2x. These are really maximum levels. After, if there's a big market euphoria, a crazy altcoin, we can go higher and have high wicks. Okay, now I can't see Solana settling above that. That is, when I talk about this level, I'm talking about realistic levels, okay? That is, globally, we can do this. We can have a very high wick to retrace strongly to do this afterwards. But globally, this is the value zone that could be worked after making a new ATH, it's between $400 and $500. Will we get there? No idea. If we do, is it a realistic target? Yes. Will I be surprised? No. Okay. But if we set a top before, and we have bad signals, will I exit the position? Yes. Okay. It's not because I have TP levels like this that I stay focused on them. I have several ways to exit positions, just like entering positions, it's the same. Either I will exit at levels I've defined, psychological numbers, Fibonacci extensions, resistance levels, okay? Or levels like this, milestones, whatever. Or because I see a market exhaustion. You see, if I take the last times I exited, here I exited because we were at a resistance level. Here, here, I exited because psychologically, there was, how to say, a big phase of fear on Solana that arrived very quickly. I remember in 3-4 days, if I recall correctly, when we made a new high at $75. Here we had 45 days of openly on Solana, you see, plus 60% in a few days here. And there was a big bullish sentiment, and I exited around $117, I think, something like that. From memory, it was $117, $110 or $117, and then we consolidated. Yes, we went higher, and some might say, "No, wait, you sold, now we're twice as high." That's how it is, it's my profit-taking strategy, I respect it. That's the most important thing. Here, if we start to re-enter, I could also exit again, or if we make a new ATH. Whatever, as I said, either we go for the levels I've defined above, or if I have reversal signals, a market that's rising, that doesn't want to go higher, I could also exit.
After, I was asked for an analysis of RSR crypto. So I am also positioned, whether from a technical point of view and solely from a technical point of view initially, at this very low bottom. I have an aggressive entry where I sold at 2x, 4x, 8x. Okay. I clearly took my profits on the way up and I re-entered in this zone where I am currently at break-even on my second entry from the bottom, because I thought this cryptocurrency had some potential. Okay. So, again, it's a small exposure of my capital, but it's in case of a retracement. Now, we must take into account that this is a cryptocurrency that has had quite a few token emissions. I don't know if I can see the market cap here. No. Well, it doesn't matter. It's a cryptocurrency that has had quite a few token emissions. So, it has a market cap that is also significant. We are more here, if I take the price at ATH, I don't think it's a cryptocurrency that will make a new ATH. Okay, I'm not positioned to say, yes, this is a cryptocurrency that will absolutely make a new ATH. However, it's a cryptocurrency that has potential and could experience a significant retracement. Okay. I'm not predicting the future. However, if we start to break this level, it wouldn't be great because we are in a range here. But from the bottom, I thought it was an interesting cryptocurrency. Now, as I said, it's not among my four biggest cryptocurrencies, and there's a reason for that, okay? It's because I don't have as much conviction as the other four. Not because it's a lower market cap crypto, because on Hyperliquid, when I positioned myself at the beginning, it was at $13, it wasn't top 10 or top 11 like it is now. Okay? Now, it's just from a conviction standpoint. There's technical analysis, there's fundamental analysis. Okay? At the end of my fundamental analysis, I give a score based on certain criteria that I measure based on data, my analysis. Okay? It's not something I do in 10 minutes, it takes hours and hours of research. And well, RSR stands out compared to other altcoins, but not as much as, for example, Hyperliquid.
So, where are we? We are in a bad range, so rather a zone where we will look for longs. Now, it's a level that must hold, and I would like to exit this phase because if we start to break downwards, then we will have a high chance of coming back to this support zone at this level. Okay, globally, our extremity, we have set a bottom, we have globally this W structure. Ideally, if we reject here and go back to the opposite extremity, we flip this resistance level into support, we will have a high chance here of having a big bottom marked and retesting. Well, first, if I take a Fibonacci, I don't know, this wick is an anomaly. I'll check. Ah, I'll take it here on Binance. We had a rather significant wick at the time. We would be here around a 0.382 to 0.618 retracement. These are clearly the objectives in case we break this range upwards. And we are still at interesting levels in the long term since we are here at a weekly support. So, on RSR, and the last cryptocurrency, I was asked for an analysis of XPL. I don't know what it is and I have very little chart. XPL, XPL, so it must have come out. So, if you have cryptocurrencies that come out like this, I can't do much from a technical point of view. I won't do a fundamental analysis because it takes me time. Okay. The best advice I can give you on this is either you have strong fundamental convictions, like I had at the time with Hyperliquid, and you have a very young chart like this. And typically, on this kind of chart, I always recommend waiting for a bottom to be established on daily and weekly charts. To compare, I like to take Optimism. You see, not now, but at the time of its listing, it dumped, it dumped. It dumped, and it dumped quite a bit. We are at -70%, so it dumped. Okay. Until we find a small base where we set a bottom and we pump and we retest this bottom. Well, here, we already have a reference point. We know that at this zone, demand was greater than supply. You see, this allows you to have a small reference point in the long term. Well, the reference points are more important. We have one here. We have one here. You see, these are zones where demand was greater than supply. This allows you to globally know where the market stopped, where buyers were present. If you don't do this work, well, you might regret it by positioning yourself too aggressively and having a market that falls. Here, we've already had a -40% drop, nothing prevents us from going much lower. Okay? So, either you have strong fundamental convictions, like Hyperliquid, as I said, like I did, or for me, it's very simple. I had a chart like this, I put orders in a "buy the dip" mode and I said to myself, it can go lower, I have so much confidence in the project. Okay, I estimate that it's clearly undervalued. I enter the position. It's rare, it happened to me only once. Clearly Hyperliquid. Otherwise, generally, I wait for a larger sideways phase to position myself. Here, ideally, a bottom, something that shows us that okay, we are setting a bottom, buyers are present, demand is greater than supply, we go from lower lows and lower highs to higher lows and higher highs. But be wary of this kind of young, young chart, it can go very fast.
I'll leave you with that. Nothing else to add. Don't hesitate to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.