The “Miracle” Rice

Rice is Asia's single most important food crop. And in the 1950s and 1960s, the fear was that Asians would not get enough of it. In the 1950s, Asia was adding 11 million new people each year. All those people needed calories. They needed rice. But those countries faced a brutal equation: The only way to produce more rice was to make more rice paddies. Then in the late 1950s and early 1960s, a new generation of high-yield rice hybrids forever changed the rice production equation. In today's video, we return (yet again!) to my favorite carb and wolf down the Miracle Rices.

Beginnings. Rice is the goated food crop. Packed with calories. Highly productive. And cheap enough for the masses. Rice provides a high percentage of people’s daily calories. The FDA's gold standard for daily calories is 2,000, though you can survive at 1,500 to 1,800. A man doing eight hours of labor probably needs 2,500 to 3,500. In 1950, only Ceylon, Mainland China, and Japan hit those food calorie supply numbers. Other regions like Indonesia, India, IndoChina and the Philippines ranged from 1560 to 1800. The choice is between two things. The first being to convert more land into cropland. The brute force method. Between 1940 and 1950, the various Asian countries turned an additional 6 million hectares of land into rice paddy. The issue was that there was only so much available land for growing rice. Much of it wasn't particularly good. Not to mention that the act of razing natural land and turning it into rice paddies is not optimal both environmentally and economically. The other factor in the equation is to raise the yield. In other words, find some way to grow more rice on the same plot of land. The issue was that this was not happening. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization noted in 1961 that per capita food production had not increased in the last seven years. Without higher yields, rice supply struggled to keep up with demand - highly dependent on a good harvest for any particular year. A single climate event can cause production to plunge 5% or more and severely damage food security. The concern in the West - here comes the geopolitical angle - was that this food insecurity could lead to political turmoil and the spread of Communism throughout the region. So let's breed some better rice, yeah?

Taiwan Rice. The Japanese, Chinese and Taiwanese have been breeding new rice strains for some time. Japan has been doing it since the 1900s and even the 1890s, but those approaches were led by farmers and lacked scientific basis. Formal programs were only first set up in the mid-1920s. A rice breeding program was also set up in Japanese-ruled Taiwan, with Chinese and Japanese researchers mixing together their strains. When Chinese settlers first came to Taiwan island en masse in the 1600s, they brought over a strain of long grain rice called indica. Over the span of 300 years, that rice became a native subspecies - called Zailai - and it is valued for its disease and bug resistance as well as tolerance of droughts. During the Japanese colonial period, Taiwan was positioned as Japan's agricultural bread basket. Since most of the island's rice production was to be exported to Japan, farmers switched to growing Japan's softer, short grain japonica rice or hybrids of such.

The Semi-Dwarf. After World War II, the Japanese left and the Nationalist Chinese arrived. Needing to feed a massive population, they launched programs to expand the amount of farmable land in Taiwan by developing the mountain slopes and reclaiming tidal land. They also experimented with higher yielding rice breeds. Taiwan's successful land reform after the war gave land to ordinary people, but those plots were small. So for farmers, it was important to grow a rice that can produce a lot. A variety of things contribute to rice yields. For example, the plant’s growth duration, its tolerance for certain soils, the quality of the grains that they grow, or their resistance to bugs or diseases. But there is one other trait that most people would not think have anything to do with yields: Height. Breeding for tall height works for the rice plant because it lets them get more light and better survive flooding. That is an advantage in the days before nitrogen fertilizers became a thing. But if you apply too much nitrogen fertilizer to a tall rice plant, the plant actually grows too tall and leafy. The stems and leaves get so large that the stalks cannot keep up and the thing "lodges". A fancy word meaning that it topples over like Humpty Dumpty. You get lower rice yields than what you'd get if you hadn't fertilized at all. Generally speaking, a "dwarf" is used to describe a breed of grain - rice, wheat, or whatever - that grows to a height only half that of its wild-type counterparts. Thusly, a semi-dwarf breed grows somewhere in between that. A semi-dwarf rice plant can absorb a whole lot of nitrogen and grow very well - but never grow beyond a certain height. Now we can safely accelerate growth with nitrogen fertilizers and get them growing like bonkers without worrying about lodging. Taiwan's first semi-dwarf rice variants were likely brought over from Mainland China in the late 1800s. It is not an uncommon mutation, and the Mainlanders will later present their own semi-dwarf strains in the late 1950s. They only discovered its progenitor AJNT (Ai-Jiao-Nan-Teh) when it didn't get knocked over by a typhoon. For some reason, that really amuses me. However, the breed that will go on to revolutionize the rice world - Dee-geo-woo-gen or DGWG - has no other origin but Taiwan. It most likely spontaneously emerged in the windy lands of Hsinchu, where it was collected. Yes. Hsinchu, where TSMC is headquartered.

Taichung Native 1. In 1956, scientists released a new breed of rice called Taichung Native 1 or TCN1. The name, of course, refers to Taichung, Taiwan's central city. Underrated city. Giant Bicycle is based there. The breed was originally created by Hong Chiu-Tseng, who was based at the Taichung district agricultural improvement station. TCN1 is a hybrid of two different rice variants: One of those was DGWG; The other being a taller, more disease-resistant variety called Tsai-yuan-chung. In addition to being a semi-dwarf variant of rice, it was also photoperiod-insensitive. What does that mean? Native rice plants flower only when the days get shorter in the autumn season - meaning that you only got 1 crop each year. Photoperiod-insensitive plants by contrast can be grown at all times of the year. With these puppies, it doesn't matter how long the days were. Once you put them into the ground - so long it was warm enough - you get mature rice in 110-130 days. So in tropical climates like Taiwan's and Thailand's, you can grow rice all year long, getting two or even three crops each year. TCN1 became widely adopted across Taiwan. When well managed, it can produce about 6-8 metric tons per hectare. Not bad considering that wild rice breeds manage just about 2-3 tons. The successes of Taichung Native 1 were substantial. It shall be remembered in history as one of the first hybrid rice breeds to be exported to another country. One of the Taiwanese scientists working on it was an American-educated Waishengren born in Shanghai named Te-Tzu Chang (張德慈). In 1961, he visited the city of Manila, where he met with an organization called the International Rice Research Institute or IRRI. He would later join them.

The IRRI. One of the major goals of the Rockefeller Foundation was to help food-deficit countries build surpluses. During the 1940s, the foundation collaborated with the Mexican government to improve agricultural yields - a program now known as the Mexican Agricultural Project, or MAP. There were some failures. Critics have said that the program increased social inequality between farmers and reduced Mexico's diverse food genetic pool. Some of the crops - like a hybrid corn - were not well accepted. But the wheat program - led by a future Nobel Prize Winner named Norman Borlaug - succeeded in drastically boosting yields and avoiding famine. Wheat yields got to such a place where Mexico - which imported half of its wheat needs in 1943 - became a net exporter by the 1960s. One of the key parts of this wheat success was the development of a breed of semi-dwarf, disease-resistant wheat. The same logic that helps the semi-dwarf rice plants survive their nitrogen infusions also applies to wheat too. We consider MAP to be the genesis point of what we now call the "Green Revolution". Later, during a meeting with the Ford Foundation, Ford's vice president for overseas development Forrest Hill said to the Rockefeller Foundation's George Harrar: "You know, George, someone should undertake to work with rice the way you Rockefeller Foundation people have with corn and wheat." People's concerns about hunger in Asia were humanitarian. But there was a geopolitical element too. There were feelings that masses of hungry people can lead to various South and Southeast Asian countries falling to Communism. In some ways, it was already happening. Harrar replied that he too had concerns, and from there the two foundations agreed to partner to found the IRRI. The IRRI was organized in Manila in 1960 and dedicated two years later. Their main goal was to increase rice yields in developing countries - recruiting various plant pathologists and biologists from around the world. Chang was one such scientist - bringing with him his vast rice breeding expertise as well as awareness that they were close to a breakthrough.

IR8-288-3. Upon arrival, Chang raised people's attentions to the value of Taiwan's semi-dwarf rice strains and urged the IRRI to use them as parents for cross-breeding. In 1962, the IRRI did 38 crosses - 11 of which had one Taiwanese parent. The Taiwanese rices showed strong yields when crossed with taller tropical varieties. One of those 38 crosses was between DGWG and a tall Indonesian variant called Peta - known for its energy and vigor. This cross produced 130 seeds, which were then planted and grown as a first generation of plants. Those plants were then segregated by their heights, with the shorter plants going on to start the second generation. This went and so on. During the fourth generation round, a single plant in row 288 was selected to yield the fifth generation. This plant was number three in that row, and so received the label IR8-288-3. If you are wondering, IR stands for "International Rice". Two more generations of growth and selection were used to stabilize the strain and proliferate its seeds. During the 1965 wet season, IR8-288-3 and other test variants were planted at various stations in Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. IR8-288-3 was by far the most productive of this limited batch - yielding about 6.5 tons per hectare. This was twice the yield of the benchmark rice, a local Thai variant known as Luang Tawng. The IRRI saw this as promising and fast-tracked it. In the 1966 test trials, IR8-288-3 performed even better - yielding 7 tons per hectare in India, 6.6 in Malaysia, 8 in Mexico, 8.2 in Bangladesh, and 10.2 tons in Pakistan. IR8 was packed with all the beneficial traits found to optimize for growth: Semi-dwarf. Photoperiod-insensitive. Increased resistance to certain bugs and diseases. But it had a few bad things too. It was susceptible to bacterial blight and a fungi called rice blast disease. The rice grains' high 28-30% amylose content mean they have a tendency to break. When introduced in Thailand, merchants had to discount it by 30-40% due to poor grain quality. Though I have to note that Thailand is a net rice exporter and known for discerning tastes. Gourmet-wise, IR8-288-3 wasn't winning any awards. It was firm and dry and the grains tended to harden after cooking, making it rather undesirable. People eating it describe the taste as neutral, chalky, and even cardboard-like. But it was quite filling.

The Miracle Rice. In the end, the IRRI chose to distribute the rice strain, naming it simply IR8. In November 1966, the IRRI announced their efforts and started distributing the seeds to experiment stations in various countries. It is important to note that IR8 was not the only rice strain that the IRRI developed and distributed. Another notable strain was IR5-47-2 or just IR5, which crossed Peta with a medium-height Malaysian breed of rice. It exhibited better resistance to blight, drought and deep water. But IR8 became the most famous of the rice breeds - thanks in part to its rapid spread through Southeast Asia. In the Philippines especially, it gained widespread use because of the backing of President Ferdinand Marcos. Marcos first visited the IRRI in 1966 and was stunned to see these plots of short IR8 rice plants loaded with grain. A few days later, the IRRI presented the IR8 rice to him at a publicized event. The Manila Bulletin newspaper blared the headline: "MARCOS GETS MIRACLE RICE". The IRRI never called IR8 a "miracle rice" and tried to discourage the term, but it nevertheless caught on. In the Philippines, the IRRI gave 2 kilograms of seed free of charge to any farmer who came to take them. They also worked with government bodies to distribute that seed to farmers. IR8 uptake exploded in the Philippines - reaching 50% planting share within five years of introduction. By comparison, it took Taiwan 16 years to do the same.

Other Countries. IR8 was quickly exported to rice deficit countries like India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and more. In India, IR8 was being grown on 1.8 million hectares of land by 1968, just two years after its introduction. A 1969 annual report by the Rockefeller Foundation - I admit they are biased on this but - noted the rapid uptake and remarked: "In the last three years [IR8] has fed more Asian people than any other recent variety of rice or any other cereal for that matter." Indian farmers discovered that IR8 grew very well during the Rabi growing season that takes place during the winter months due to fewer pest and water-logging problems. In Pakistan, IR8 thrived in the country's sunlight. Rice production surged 75% between 1964 and 1968 thanks to skyrocketing yields - motivating President Ayub Khan to direct more national support towards agriculture. An agricultural boom soon followed, though its social effects later not so great. And as for Vietnam, the rice arrived at a time of war. One author in 1971 remarked that the Vietnamese regarded IR8 about the same way as a "French gourmet would frozen TV dinners". Despite the chaos of war, IR8 was adopted there as fast as anything can be. Farmers colloquially called it the "Honda Rice", because one good crop earned enough to buy a Honda motorbike. Even the northern Vietnamese Communists quietly ordered cadres to collect it for growing back home. One special thing to mention is the impact these rices had on Ceylon (or Sri Lanka now). As I mentioned in a prior video, high-yield rice strains introduced in the late 1960s helped a country that once needed to import half its rice consumption to become self-sufficient. At least until they banned the chemical fertilizers.

IR36. Even as IR8 was being distributed to farmers across South and Southeast Asia, the people at the IRRI were working on a successor. This eventually led to the rice known as IR36. As I mentioned earlier, IR8 was not really tasty. It did not resist bugs well. Its growth time of 130 days was also not short enough to allow farmers to grow a second crop during the rainy season. Thus in 1976, the IRRI released IR36, which improved on these and quickly superseded its ancestor. During the 1980s, it was the most widely grown rice in the Philippines with 11 million hectares sown. Farmers liked it for its reliability and ultra-short growing time of 110 days. IR36 is still sometimes planted but it has been mostly replaced by other descendants like IR64, which are bred for today's conditions. A 2010 IRRI study found that if you tried to grow IR8 today, all things being equal you'd get significantly lower yields due to the world's warmer temperatures. It is a reminder that modern agriculture's performance comes as the result of years of little incremental gains with things continually evolving year after year.

Upsides Downsides. It is important to note here that the rise of IR8 and its ilk solved old problems but also created new ones. The first and most significant being that IR8, IR36 and its descendants can only achieve these high yields with technological aid. You needed modern nitrogen fertilizers to grow them, modern insecticides to keep them from being overwhelmed by bugs and modern mechanization technology to harvest them. Many poorer farmers cannot easily afford these technologies. Those who can afford the fertilizers, the water rights, and the mechanization technology ended up benefitting the most. Which to those poorer farmers feels societally unfair. And even for those can afford it, there were hidden strings. In the old days, farmers had their own seeds that they kept and planted for free. After IR8, farmers can only buy entire packages of technologies from big companies. They got locked in - creating resentment. Several commentators have noted the IRRI's funding connections to the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations - accusing the rice as a tool for neocolonialism by their firms. The overuse of these fertilizers caused negative ecological side effects like acidity in the soils. And since the fertilizers were petroleum-based, when prices surged after the Oil Crises, farmers lost substantial sums. And moreover, there is a feeling of grief and nostalgia stemming from how these high-yielding seeds have imposed a monoculture onto what was once a wild diversity of food varieties. These are unfortunate outcomes. But we can also look at the upsides. There are Internet factoids floating around that say that Green Revolution rice and wheat saved a billion lives from starvation, but I find that a bit iffy. What I can point to is a survey of poor rural Indian villages in the 1980s found that rice farmers' real incomes more than doubled from a decade ago. 40% of that rise in incomes can be attributed to increased rice production. The Gates Foundation estimated in 2012 that rice yields surged 109% between 1960 and 2000 - increasing food supply in developing countries by 12%. Without that, those countries would have had to turn 20-25 million more hectares into farmland and food prices would have been 35-65% higher. I think the calorie deficit was real. And I think these seeds did indeed help close it. People today are living better lives because of this.

Conclusion. Nevertheless, for many people, the terms “Green Revolution” and “miracle rice” leave this bad taste. Any mention of the Green Revolution must also consider that this distribution of seeds was done not just out of the goodness of people's hearts, but to promote a philosophy of technology-led modernization. It was anti-Communism. It is why they dubbed it the "Green" Revolution in the first place - a repainting of the violent Red Revolution. It had an agenda, there is no denying it. And as for "miracle seed", the implication behind the name was that this seed can by itself somehow solve all the problems of farming. Not true, of course. The reality was that Taichung Native 1, IR8, IR36, and all its many descendants are no more "miracles" than your cellphone is. They are just more productive strains of rice that require trade-offs to deliver their promised gains. Miracles imply no trade-offs. That is very rarely what technology is. There were good things and bad. Let's take both into account.