Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this breaking news video of Saturday, November 1st, 2025, in front of a crypto market. We spent Friday with the market consolidating quietly, moving sideways. For this little Saturday, it's starting in a slight green. Some are pushing well like Alcoin this morning, so that's pleasing. On the traditional market side, it closed a little less joyfully, with the big companies slightly in the red. However, we have a nice push from Amazon, which has regained some of its vigor after its big correction, which ultimately led to the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closing in the green. But still, it was a Friday that wasn't the prettiest at closing.
So, if we take a quick look at a market overview, we see that Bitcoin, after correcting all week, finished Friday slightly in the green, and today it's quietly continuing to climb. I did an analysis on the VIP Telegram channel this morning, as usual. Regarding the S&P 500, it's correcting slightly. Same for the Nasdaq. Well, since Tuesday, if you will, is this the beginning of a larger correction, or just a small correction before heading even higher? We'll have the answer next week because, yes, there have been quite a few good news items that have come out. So, the markets could quietly continue their little climb.
However, the dollar continues to rise because, well, perhaps the interest rate cuts might be over. We don't really know. For December, we might not expect a rate cut, as Jerome Powell said, and so the dollar is gaining some strength. And a rising dollar unfortunately puts some downward pressure on risk assets.
Now, looking at the liquidity map, it's rather good. You might say, "Well, there's liquidity on both sides." Yes, I'd say there's more to look for to the north. Can Bitcoin go and eat this cluster here between 106,350 and 102,000? Yes. However, we would need to break through some large buy orders, because for Bitcoin, the most powerful, most voluminous buy orders are waiting around $106,820 and precisely at $106,000. So, if the $106,000 level starts to be broken, there will surely be a descent to go and target the entire cluster and the largest buy orders that follow, which will be precisely at $102,000. Okay? But for that, we need to break $106,000.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin starts to attack the cluster to the north, the direction is at least here towards $117,200. Why $117,200? You see this huge red line, those are the most powerful sell orders. So, it's surely a big whale defending its short position, which is above. So, you see a Bitcoin that starts to break $112,000, goes to $113,000, there will be a rally that will happen up to around $117,200 to go and eat all of that.
For now, since Friday, it's been consolidating, so it's accumulating to the north and to the south. As it's consolidating, the Bollinger Bands are very compressed. As I told you in the analysis this morning, this means there will be a strong breakout either upwards or downwards to go and target liquidity, at least up to $117,000 and down to $102,000.
Now, what about the news? Well, Bitcoin closed the month of October in a slight red. It hadn't done that for quite a few years. Now, the question is, will November be green? You should know that November has an average increase of 42.51%. So, if November remains within the average of the last 12 years, we could see Bitcoin reaching around $160,000 in November.
Now, is it silly to say Bitcoin $160,000? Some will tell me, "Yes, the market isn't doing well." But if we just look at the statistics, November on average is +42.51% since 2013. So, we can't say it's silly because it's the statistical average of November's rise over the last 12 years. So, Bitcoin at $160,000 for November could clearly remain possible. Of course, the market atmosphere isn't great, so people don't believe it. However, I only look at statistics and probabilities.
There are quite a few macro factors at play that will, of course, determine whether November is also green or not. There is still some good news. The interest rate cut by the central bank. We have the United States and China working on a trade agreement. All of this is favorable to Bitcoin. However, on the other hand, we still have the paralysis of the American government. We have quite a bit of uncertainty regarding tariffs with China. So, there's a small agreement, but it remains a bit tense. So, we will need new bullish catalysts and to somewhat sweep the bearish catalysts under the rug. You see?
Well, Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday to end these trade tensions. It's essentially a discussion about tariffs and Beijing's stronger fight against intellectual property theft. This is one of Trump's battlegrounds. He wants to reduce this. Now, I don't know if you've traveled to the United States in recent years. I've been to a few places. Intellectual property theft is not pretty. Well, he's also asking the Chinese to buy more American soybeans and to lift export restrictions on rare earths for at least 1 year. Rare earths are used to manufacture all advanced technological equipment.
For now, an agreement has been reached. However, it might not be the long-term agreement that they're telling us here. Denis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University, told CNBC yesterday that this meeting constitutes more of a pause in the trade war than a major victory where everything goes back to normal. So, you can feel that everyone is trying to pull the blanket towards themselves.
And also, the Fed's interest rate cut. The next Fed meeting is on December 10th, 2025, with a 63% probability of an interest rate cut. Powell cooled the markets on Wednesday by saying, "Be careful, the Fed governors don't agree." They didn't all agree on a rate cut last Wednesday, and for December, it's very uncertain whether there will be a rate cut. So, there are bullish catalysts, and there are also rather cautious, bearish catalysts. That's why the markets, for now, don't really feel very bullish.
Interest rate cuts. Yes, this is also good for Bitcoin, meaning lower borrowing costs. Easier borrowing means more money comes into the market, and that's good for risk assets like cryptos and stocks. Clearly, the Federal Reserve also said it will end its quantitative tightening (QT), which is a bit of a balance sheet reduction, on December 1st. So, that means that perhaps in a few months, we'll see the opposite of QT, which is quantitative easing (QE), where the central bank injects some money. Well, we hope so.
Now, what's not cooling the atmosphere is the ongoing US government shutdown. This is entering its 5th week, and we're approaching the longest period of US government shutdown in US history. So, at some point, something will have to be done. Trump is fed up; he's calling for a rule to be passed so that a small group in the Senate can cause trouble and block the majority. So, for now, you can clearly see there's good news, but it's a bit overshadowed by an atmosphere of ongoing tension and uncertainty, unfortunately. So, we would need some good little news, some good catalysts, to reignite the upward trend in cryptos.
The month of October ended in a slight red for the first time in 7 years, a small drop of -3.35%, which isn't too serious. What was serious this October was the crash on October 10th, which completely bled all the altcoins. It wasn't pretty. You should know that since 2013, Bitcoin has only had two negative months in October: in 2018 and in 2014. So, we can see that the sample size is too small to predict what will happen. Because, yes, we could say, "Oh, it ended in the red like in 2018." That means we're heading for a red November and December. The problem is that the sample size is very small.
For example, you see that in 2022, 2021, and 2019, October ended in the green, but November and December ended in the red. Well, in 2014, October ended in an ugly red, but November was a nice green. So, it's complicated to say what November might do after a red October because the only year we have where October was red and November and December were also red is just one year. So, statistically, it's a bit delicate.
Well, what we do know is that November is statistically a bullish month. Now, the problem is that with what happened on October 10th, the confidence of some in the crypto market is quite shaken. That is to say, since the crash on Friday the 10th, many people have been calmed down. Clearly, when you have between -50% and -80% on your altcoin in a single day, you get a bit fed up. It's completely normal. So, in short, November is quite uncertain. Will it be like 2018, where after a red October, November and December were also red? Well, the correlation for now is quite weak, as we only have one year for comparison.
However, what we do know is that Bitcoin's average return over 3 months after a weak October month is +11%. So, the statistics are rather positive. You should know that historically, November is the best month for Bitcoin, +46% on average over the last 12 years since 2013, and that the period between October and December, the last quarter, is the best quarter for cryptos with an average gain of +78%.
So, on one hand, we have general statistics that are very positive and very bullish for this month and this last quarter for November and December. On the other hand, we had a red October, and the last time that happened, November and December were also red. So, on one hand, there are those who will only look at the general statistics, saying, "Well, on average, November-December is green and boom. So, there's a higher probability of green, and that's exactly right." I agree with that because politics says so. And on the other hand, there are those who will say, "Oh my god, 2018 was red like now, and so we're going to see red in November and December."
I prefer to look at the overall probabilities, which lean more towards a last quarter that has a higher probability of being green than red. And that would align with the fact that Bitcoin could reach $160,000 this month if, well, it stays within the statistics of having a green month. Well, we have the right to hope.
There you go, friends, this little video. I hope you enjoyed it. We'll see each other tonight for the analysis; we'll do a monthly analysis since it's also the end of the month. I'm sending you kisses, and I'll see you later. Bye bye.