Transcription
To fully and to the most frightening depth comprehend the entire monstrous and truly historical scale of the catastrophe, which is not just looming, but is already relentlessly crashing down on the Russian military machine, it is necessary to cast aside emotions and propagandistic husk and listen with extreme attention to the words of a person who, by virtue of his unique profession and access to state secrets, operates not with slogans and empty promises, but exclusively with dry figures, irrefutable facts, and high-resolution satellite intelligence data. For it was the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, who revealed the truth that the Kremlin is trying to hide under seven seals. And this truth is that Russia's legendary strategic reserve, about which they so love to talk with bated breath on federal channels, is in reality completely and irrevocably depleted. General Milley, in his closed report, the details of which became known to the analytical community, asserts that what we are observing today is not just some temporary supply difficulties or local logistical failures that can be corrected by personnel changes or arrests of deputy defense ministers, but a systemic and irreversible collapse of the very foundation of Russian military power, which has relied solely on the giant Soviet legacy for the past 2 years, and now, when these seemingly bottomless warehouses have emptied. And the factories physically cannot cope with the load. Putin's regime has found itself facing the mathematical inevitability of total defeat, which can no longer be prevented by any mobilizations. In his detailed analysis, the American general points out that the concept of strategic reserve in modern warfare includes not only thousands of tanks and millions of artillery shells in warehouses, but also the state's ability to replenish losses in manpower and equipment without critical damage to the economy and social stability. However, it is precisely at this crucial point that Russia passed the point of no return back at the end of 2024 and is now flying into the abyss by inertia, accelerating every day. Milley draws particular attention to the fact that the visual and documentary confirmation of the depletion of reserves is visible to any competent analyst who simply compares the available satellite images of the main heavy equipment storage bases beyond the Urals for 2020, the first, and 2025. For where rows of thousands of armored vehicles once stood, there are now gaping voids or rusted, disassembled vehicle hulls that cannot be restored even with spare parts, because they have stood under the open sky for decades and have rotted from within, turning into scrap metal. The general emphasizes that the Kremlin made its most fatal and fateful mistake when it counted on a short victorious war and recklessly expended its elite airborne and special forces units, as well as its most modern weaponry, in the first months of the invasion, being absolutely confident that Western aid to Ukraine would dry up in a couple of weeks. But when the war entered a protracted phase, it turned out that the emperor had no clothes and there was nothing to fight with, except to frantically take Khrushchev- and Brezhnev-era tanks out of storage, which are only suitable for a museum or retro-tech parades. Mark Milley places special and very strong emphasis on the fact that the mass use of T-62 tanks and even ancient T-55s on the front lines is not some cunning plan by generals or a thrifty way to dispose of old junk, as Russian propaganda tries to lie. But a real cry of despair, indicating that modern T-90 Proryv tanks and deeply modernized T-72B3s have physically run out and are no longer produced in the industrial quantities capable of covering daily losses at the front, numbering in the dozens. The general explains that the Russian military-industrial complex has lost its competencies and access to critical Western technologies necessary for creating modern thermal imaging optics, fire control systems, and quality bearings, without which a modern tank is just a pile of blind iron, which becomes an easy target for Ukrainian drones and ATGMs. Moreover, Milley reveals information about a crisis in the production of special armor steel, which arose due to the lack of alloying additives previously imported from European countries, which has led to new batches of equipment having lower armor quality than Soviet models from the eighties. A crucial aspect of the general's report is a deep analysis of artillery potential, which has long been considered the main and invincible trump card of the Russian army, the so-called "fire wall." But now this wall has turned into its main Achilles' heel, as the shell hunger has become a chronic and incurable phenomenon, which cannot be cured by supplies of questionable quality shells from North Korea or aid from Iran, because these supplies only postpone the inevitable end for a couple of months, but do not solve the fundamental problem of the lack of domestic production of quality gunpowder and explosives in the required volumes due to the deficit of chemical components. Milley specifically notes that North Korean shells have a monstrous spread in the quality of gunpowder charge, which leads to unpredictable trajectories and often bursts gun barrels, killing crews. The general states plainly and without mincing words that the strategic reserve of artillery barrels has also been depleted to the limit of physical wear. And we increasingly see Russian artillery on the front losing the ability to conduct counter-battery fire. Simply because the range and accuracy of fire from worn-out howitzers have dropped by 40% compared to normative indicators, making them easy prey for Western systems transferred to Ukraine. But the most terrible thing for Putin's regime, the discovery that General Milley makes in his analysis concerns human resources, which in Russia are cynically considered to be endless and renewable – "women will still give birth." Although in reality, this is a profound delusion that will cost the country its future. For the professional contract army, which was trained for years and into which trillions of rubles were invested, was effectively destroyed in the first year of the war. And what we see now on the battlefield is a poorly trained, demoralized, and poorly equipped mass of mobilized and unwilling contract soldiers, recruited from prisons and depressed regions, which is incapable of conducting complex combined arms operations. The general explains in simple terms that the strategic reserve of manpower is not just the arithmetic number of men of conscription age in the country, but the presence of a professional officer corps capable of commanding these men in battle and maintaining discipline. And it is precisely the junior and middle-ranking officer corps – lieutenants and captains in the Russian army – that has been almost completely wiped out, leading to the degradation of troop command to the level of primitive frontal assaults, which Milley calls "meat assaults" with soldierly directness, having no tactical sense other than the senseless disposal of people for the sake of reporting upwards. A special place in Milley's report is occupied by an analysis of the state of Russian military aviation and aerospace forces, which have also faced an unprecedented crisis of engine and airframe resource depletion. For modern fighters and bombers have a strictly limited number of flight hours. And due to the intensity of sorties, this resource is burned five times faster than normal, and factories cannot keep up with producing new engines and turbine blades due to sanctions and a shortage of qualified engineers, which has already led to an increase in accidents and plane crashes deep in the rear without any enemy action. The general points out that Russian pilots are forced to fly worn-out machines, risking their lives with every sortie. And the cannibalization of civilian aviation for the needs of military transport aviation only exacerbates the transport collapse within Russia itself, where planes break down right in the sky. The report also addresses the critical situation with logistics, particularly with rail transport, which is the circulatory system of the Russian military machine. Milley reveals data on the deficit of roller bearings for railway cars, which were previously purchased from Western companies SKF and Timken. And after their departure, there was nothing to replace them with, as Chinese analogues cannot withstand the loads and break down after a couple of months of operation, which has already led to a decrease in railway carrying capacity and the accumulation of trains at nodal stations. This creates ideal conditions for long-range missile strikes on concentrations of equipment in the rear. Analyzing the overall strategic situation, the general arrives at a disappointing conclusion for Moscow: Putin has fallen into his own ideological trap by believing the beautiful and false reports of his desk generals that Russia has the resources for a long war of attrition. But the reality has turned out to be that this war of attrition has depleted Russia itself much faster than Ukraine, which is supported by the most powerful coalition of fifty developed countries with a combined economic potential tens of times greater than Russia's. Mark Milley warns that right now we are witnessing a desperate attempt by the Kremlin to create the illusion of reserves by endlessly transferring the last combat-ready units from one sector of the front to another, from the Luhansk to the Zaporizhzhia direction, to plug holes in the defense. But this "Trishkin's caftan" strategy only works until the first serious breakthrough, which will inevitably collapse the entire front on the domino principle, where the fall of one sector leads to the collapse of the entire defense line and uncontrolled flight of troops. The general also touches upon the topic of financial and economic reserves, which are melting away at a frightening speed, as the National Wealth Fund, Putin's main piggy bank, has already been effectively tapped and is being spent to cover the gigantic budget deficit, which is inflated by monstrous military expenditures and secret articles. And this means that Putin will soon physically have no money left not only to continue the war but also to maintain the loyalty of regional elites and the bloated security apparatus within the country, the Rosgvardia and the FSB. Milley draws a very accurate historical parallel with the situation in Kaiser Germany in 1918, when the German army was still on foreign territory in France and seemed a formidable force, but the country's strategic reserves were completely depleted, the economy collapsed, the population was starving, and the rear fell apart in a matter of weeks, leading to capitulation and a change of regime without the Entente troops storming Berlin. It is precisely such a scenario that the general predicts for Russia in the very near future, as the economy is overheated by an arms race, the military-industrial complex is working at the limit of its physical capabilities in three shifts and cannot produce a single tank beyond the plan. And social tension in society is growing secretly but steadily, like steam in a closed boiler ready to explode from any spark. In his analysis, Mark Milley particularly notes the destructive role of Western sanctions, which act slowly, like a snake, but surely, suffocating Russia's technological capabilities to produce modern weapons. For without Western chips, high-precision machine tools with numerical control, and licensed software, it is impossible to build a modern aircraft, a high-precision missile, or even a modern tank or digital communication system. The general openly laughs at the pathetic attempts of Russian propaganda to present import substitution as a great success, pointing out that the forced replacement of high-quality Western components with cheap Chinese surrogates leads to a sharp decline in the reliability and effectiveness of weapons, which we see on the battlefield, where Russian missiles, like Kinzhal or Kalibr, often fall on their own territory or simply do not explode upon hitting the target, turning into expensive scrap metal. Milley asserts that it is the depletion of ordinary strategic reserves that forces Putin to take increasingly insane and risky steps, including constant nuclear blackmail and threats to strike decision-making centers, which is the only remaining argument in the arsenal of a dictator who has run out of conventional military and political arguments. However, the general is confident that nuclear blackmail is just the bluff of a cornered rat, since the use of nuclear weapons will provide no military advantage on the battlefield, as Ukraine does not have troop concentrations that can be destroyed by a single strike, but it will guaranteed lead to an immediate NATO retaliatory strike and the physical destruction of Putin himself and his entourage, which he has been repeatedly and unequivocally made clear through closed communication channels from Washington and London. An important part of Milley's sensational revelations is insider information that Russian generals are well aware of the real catastrophic state of affairs. And in the corridors of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense, there is an atmosphere of despondency, fear, and hopelessness, as they, as professionals, understand that there is nothing to fight with, and they, not the propagandists on television, will have to answer for the inevitable defeat. The general says that intercepted conversations of the highest Russian command indicate growing panic and attempts to frantically shift responsibility to each other and to civilian officials, which is a sure sign of the imminent collapse of the entire system of troop and state command. Milley predicts that the culmination of the process and the depletion of reserves will be the very moment when the Russian army loses the ability for even passive, stubborn defense. And this will happen suddenly for the external observer, as the structural integrity of the armed forces will be violated from within through the loss of connectivity in logistics and command. He cites numerous examples from world military history where powerful armies lost combat capability not due to the complete physical destruction of all soldiers, but due to the loss of faith in victory and the understanding of the futility of resistance in the absence of resources. And it is precisely to this state that the Russian grouping in Ukraine is rapidly approaching, which is held together only by blocking detachments and fear of repression. The general also points out that Russia's so-called allies, in the person of China, perfectly see this weakness and are in no hurry to provide real military assistance with lethal weapons, preferring to cynically extract cheap resources – oil, gas, timber, and metals – from the weakening neighbor, taking advantage of its hopeless and dependent position and dictating their usurious prices. Milley believes that Beijing has already effectively written Putin off and is pragmatically preparing for the division of the post-Putin inheritance and spheres of influence in Siberia and Central Asia, understanding that Russia's strategic reserve is zeroed out and it is no longer a subject of geopolitics, but is turning into an object of division and a raw material appendage. Furthermore, Milley draws attention to the demographic pit, which has become another factor in the destruction of reserves. For the most able-bodied men from the real sector of the economy, drivers, mechanics, builders, are being taken to the front, which leads to the shutdown of entire industries and the inability to maintain urban infrastructure. The general predicts a series of man-made disasters in Russian cities in the winter of 2026, when worn-out heating networks will begin to burst, and there will be no one and nothing to repair them. In his address, the general urges Western leaders not to weaken the pressure under any circumstances and not to succumb to the Kremlin's cunning tricks about a truce or freezing the conflict, as any pause is needed by Putin only for one purpose: to try to accumulate at least some reserves, re-arm the army, and postpone his end, only to strike again with new force later. Milley is confident that now is the decisive moment in history when the aggressor, deprived of resources and the will to win, must be pushed to the limit to ensure the security of Europe and the world for decades. He explains that the concept of victory in modern technological warfare is not necessarily planting a flag over the enemy capital, as in '45, but depriving the enemy of the physical and economic ability to continue organized resistance and combat operations. And it is this goal that has already been practically achieved thanks to the incredible courage of the Ukrainian people and the consolidated assistance of allies. General Mark Milley also reveals secret intelligence data that the real irreversible losses of the Russian army have exceeded all imaginable forecasts. And the Kremlin is hiding these monstrous figures not only from its own population, so as not to cause a social revolt of mothers and wives, but also from itself, so as not to destroy the fragile worldview in which everything is supposedly going according to plan. But the bitter truth is, the general says, that the plan failed back in the first 3 days of the war, when Kyiv could not be taken in 3 days. And everything that happened afterwards is a bloody and senseless improvisation at the expense of burning strategic reserves accumulated by the Soviet Union over 70 years of preparation for a third world war with NATO. Now that these giant reserves have been senselessly burned in the fields near Ugledar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Chasov Yar, Russia is left alone with the harsh reality of the 21st century, where wars are won by advanced technologies, satellites, artificial intelligence, drones, and a powerful economy. Not faceless masses of infantry and rusty iron from the mid-20th century. Milley predicts that 2026 will be the turning point year when the accumulated problems and contradictions will finally transition into quality and lead to a cascading collapse of the front and rear. He compares Russia's current state to a house of cards that stands only because it hasn't been blown on hard enough yet, but the wind of change is already rising, and this wind will blow away the rotten structure to its foundations. The general emphasizes that no mobilization of the economy, as the new Defense Minister Belousov talks about, can compensate for a decade of total corruption, theft, and technological backwardness. For it is impossible to build in a year under the harshest sanctions what has been destroyed and stolen for 30 years in a row by effective managers. Milley says that strategic reserve also includes public trust in the authorities. And this most important intangible resource is also depleted, as people are starting to ask uncomfortable questions, to which state propaganda no longer has clear answers, and even Solovyov and Skobeeva look confused. Why is the war lasting so long if we are so strong and great? Why are prices for eggs, gasoline, and utilities constantly rising in stores? Why are coffins and cripples returning to every yard, and the war aims are constantly changing? These simple questions are destroying the rear, which is the foundation of any war. And no television can defeat a refrigerator in the long run, when the refrigerator becomes empty. The general is confident that as soon as the truth about the real catastrophic state of the army and economy breaks through the dam of censorship and internet blockages, the regime will collapse instantly like a colossus on clay feet. He reminds us that dictatorships always appear powerful and monolithic until the very last second, until they crumble to dust from a single push, as happened with the USSR, Ceaușescu, or Gaddafi. Mark Milley urges everyone to look at the facts, not at the beautiful television picture. And the facts indicate that Putin no longer has any good moves on this chessboard. Zugzwang. Any of his actions only worsens the already deplorable situation. An attempt at a new large-scale offensive will lead to the final defeat of the remaining army and the loss of the last equipment. Transitioning to stubborn defense will only postpone the end, but not prevent it, as the economy will not withstand the arms race and sanctions pressure. Milley summarizes that Russia's strategic defeat has already occurred as a fait accompli, and now we are only witnessing a protracted and bloody finale to this historical tragedy. The general also draws attention to the fact that the loss of strategic reserves makes Russia vulnerable not only on the Ukrainian front but also in other directions where it has interests and frozen conflicts that could flare up at any moment. The Caucasus, which has always been a powder keg, and where local elites already feel the weakness of the center. Central Asia, where the influence of China, Turkey, and Islamists is growing. The Far East, which neighbors are looking at. All of this could become new points of tension that Moscow will simply have nothing to deal with, as all combat-ready units and the Rosgvardia have been sent to Ukraine. Milley says that Putin, with his own hands, has made Russia defenseless against future threats for the sake of his insane imperial ambitions and desire to enter history, which have been shattered against the resilience of Ukraine and the unity of the West. The general concludes that history always cruelly punishes those rulers who cannot count resources and overestimate their strength. And Russia will pay for this senseless and criminal war not only with the loss of its army and economy but also with the loss of its status on the world stage, and possibly territorial integrity, for a decade to come, turning into a failed state. In conclusion of his deep and comprehensive analysis, General Milley leaves us with the thought that the finale is inevitable and it will be terrible for those who unleashed this criminal war, but just from the perspective of higher history and international law. We see live how a huge military machine, which seemed invincible to the whole world and the second army in the world, is stopping and starting to smoke because it has simply run out of fuel, spare parts, qualified mechanics, and faith in the righteousness of its cause. And soon it will simply fall apart under its own weight, burying its creators and ideologues of the Russian world under its debris. This is the bitter and uncomfortable truth that General Milley has revealed to the world and which the Kremlin is so frantically afraid to admit, continuing to lie to its citizens until the last minute of the regime's existence. Ah.