Transcription
It's easier to uh spot geopolitical incompetence than to spot geopolitical competence, you know. And of course, you know, whenever there's geopolitical incompetence, there's wars, you know, and I believe that every war we see today reflects geopolitical incompetence.
The Europeans thought they had won the cold war. So they became very arrogant. They saw no reason for compromise with anybody. We have won. We are the top dogs. We decide. You accept what what we are today. And that arrogance and arrogance clearly leads to geopolitical incompetence. Whereas humility by the way is a very good quality to have in geopolitics.
What you just saw was a clip from a speech in October 2025 by Keshor Mabani, a renowned Singaporean thinker. In this speech, he takes us on a tour of the world, systematically examining the state of regional organizations today and poses a thoughtprovoking observation. From South Asia to the Middle East, from Africa to Europe, why are conflict and deadlock so common? In the content that follows, we will hear Mr. from Abubani's profound analysis of this global dilemma. Using a classic textbook level case study, he will reveal what true geopolitical competence is and how Europe, once seen as a model of success, lit the flames of war on its own doorstep through its geopolitical incompetence. This is not just a diagnosis of global disarray but a deep insight into the different political wisdoms of the east and west.
Let's continue. uh you know um what I want to talk about is something that is should be seen to be a genuine mystery and this genuine mystery which I must confess to you I haven't completely solved is why is Southeast Asia at peace because going by all the logic of either past history or watching trends around the world. The peace that we see today in Southeast Asia is not normal. It's abnormal. And I'll explain why why it's abnormal. And because it is so abnormal, I'm surprised that not more people are noticing it. You know, of course, we've had skirmishes here and there between the two ASEAN member states like recently within Thailand and Cambodia, but we have nothing like the kind of major wars you see happening in Ukraine or the major wars you see happening as you can see in Gaza uh today. Right?
So the reason why uh I say it's a mystery is because if you firstly if you look at the all the regions in the world the one region that should be programmed for war rather than programmed for peace should be Southeast Asia because it's important for us to be aware that no other region on planet earth is as diverse as Southeast Asia is. Right? I mean the the one statistic I give is that out of the 700 million people in Southeast Asia, you have now more than 250 million Muslims, 150 million Christians, 150 million Buddhists, Mahayana Buddhist, Hinayana Buddhists, you have Tawis, Confucianists, Hindus and as you know we have lots of communists also in Southeast Asia and amazingly given this tremendous uh diverse university. This is why uh every all the previous British historians when they wrote about Southeast Asia described Southeast Asia as the Balkans of Asia and this as you know in the Balkans of Europe is where you saw all the struggles and fights and all that. They thought well Southeast Asia is going to be where all the wars will take place. So for a region that should have been a natural cauldron for war, right, to have become instead one of the most peaceful regions and prosperous regions on planet earth is is is abnormal. It shouldn't have happened. And so we should therefore begin to try and understand how is it we arrive at this very strange abnormal situation that we have.
So as I said the first reason is that we were designed to be as a diverse place a place where you should see more conflicts tensions and so on so forth but we haven't see that and secondly the reason why the this peace is abnormal is because if you look at for example every other you should compare Asean or Southeast Asia to the regions in the global south to the developing countries regions And I'm going to take you on a tour of the world and I'll show you how ASEAN in comparison with every other region is doing.
Now of course, our most immediate uh neighborhood in some ways is South Asia right and you have India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Nepal um Maldes right in this and they have a regional organization called the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation. Now that region actually should find it easier uh to cooperate or have peace with each other because frankly they share common history and even though there's divisions between Hindus and Muslims and as you do as you see between India and Pakistan it is the people speak the same language eat the same food and I can tell you uh when I was serving as Singapore's ambassador in New York over 10 years and I would meet all the bankers from City Bank and other places and I would watch this Indians and Pakistanis talking to each other singing the same songs eating the same food and I couldn't tell who's Indian who's Pakistani you know they look very similar right so they were so similar and yet despite that as you can see in South Asia you've you've had uh significant conflicts in fact one that took place very recently on a much larger scale than anything you see in Southeast Asia and at the same time the leaders in in of that South Asian Association of Regional Corporation haven't even met each other for several years they can't talk to each other I mean forget trying to make peace, you they can't even talk to each other. That's the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation.
Then of course, if you go to the Middle East, as you know, the Middle East is a really troubled place and and and and just when you think things may settle down, something some new surprises come out there. And I can tell you for example the Israeli bombing of Qatar should come as a big shock to us because frankly Qatar is a peaceful sovereign country that was actually trying to bring peace between the Israels and Palestinians and actually at the request of the Americans too. But then out of the blue they get bombed. Right? Now, as you know, you all sitting in this room not worrying for one second whether or not a bomb will come and land somewhere near you, right? You take it for granted. The people in Doha took it for granted too. Guess what? The bombs came. So again, it shows you how abnormal the peace we have uh over here.
And of course if you go to the continent of Africa as you know there are tremendous number of conflicts here and there of different scales and some are incredibly brutal. Uh thousands have lost their lives like in Sudan for example tremendously painful wars have taken place in in Africa. And what's interesting is that when you cross the Atlantic Ocean, when you go to South America, the good news about South America is that the the states don't go to war with each other. There's been no major war between Brazil and Argentina or, you know, Brazil and its neighbors and so on so forth. So, by and large, South America is at peace. But even though most of them share the same language, they most of them speak Spanish except for Brazil. that speaks Portuguese and despite the fact they come from a common European traditions and they should have learned from the example of Europe even there regional cooperation is difficult and the leaders of Brazil and Argentina haven't met for some years again again they don't talk to each other see they're very similar but they don't talk to each other and in Southeast Asia we have no difficulty talking to each other so you If you compare Southeast Asia region by region by region, it's amazing that we are by far the most peaceful and prosperous corner of the global south, right?
And then what's interesting is that even if you compare um uh ASEAN let's say with the in theory the most successful regional organization which is the European Union. Now, it's true that within the European Union, there have been no wars fought among any two EU member states, and that's a great achievement on the part of the European Union. And I consider this the greatest civilizational achievement of any regional organization because in the European Union, you don't just have zero wars with each other, you have zero prospect of war. Now we in ASEAN we have not achieved zero prospect of war yet as you can see within Thailand and Cambodia the skirmishes there but what's interesting is that even though in theory the European Union is ahead of ASEAN actually the story is more complicated because even though the Europeans have not fought wars with each other directly they have fought proxy wars And I can tell you that one reason why Yugoslavia fell apart in the 1990s was because different European countries supported different parts of Yugoslavia. And so that war was in one way a result of European Maravealian manipulations that also happened right and what's interesting is that even though the European Union is supposed to be a beacon of peace the major wars that we have seen since the end of the cold war in 1990 have been in and around Europe and I can tell you that for for example the European Union uh The current war in Ukraine could have been avoided if the European Union had shown some degree of geopolitical competence in managing his neighbors like Russia.
Now there's nothing nothing that I say justifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, it's illegal. It violates international law. That's very clear. But it's a war that could have been avoided that if there had been more geopolitical competence. And this is again surprising that ASEAN is is is a region of developing countries not developed countries. The Europeans have much bigger budgets, much more sophisticated foreign ministries, but they failed to achieve peace in the region. we with much less geopolitical sophistic uh much less sophisticated institutions have created peace in our region you know so I hope I hope by now I may give you a sense of why it is so unusual to have such peace and prosperity in Southeast Asia but I have not yet been able to figure out why this has happened why are we peaceful but if I if you asked me to look for a theory, I would say it has to do possibly with the character and soul of the largest member country within ASEAN.
Now, why does the largest member country matter? I can tell you that most regional organizations fail because the biggest country in the region tries to dominate the organization and for example if you talk to the in South Asia sometimes the neighbors of India complain well India is too big is is trying to control the organization. If you go to the Pacific Forum, I can tell you when I was ambassador to the UN, the Pacific Forum ambassadors would tell me privately saying Australia is so big. Australia is trying to bully the bully the small countries in the Pacific Forum. Uh and and certainly the organization of American states is dysfunctional because the United States is so strong. It controls and manipulates the organization. So if the big country tries to control or dominate the region then it becomes dysfunctional. So what's interesting is that Indonesia has decided not to do that which is unusual and the question is why not you know and here I must say and I reflect on the fact that I first attended ASEAN meetings in 1971 um that's about what 54 years ago and I can tell you when I attended the ASEAN meetings at that time there was a tremendous amount of distrust among all the ASEAN countries. It's quite natural because you know Malaysia and Singapore had just separated, Indonesia just had confrontation against Malaysia. Uh Philippines was claiming a state of Malaysia and then you know Thailand had some problems with Malaysia over separatist in southern Thailand. So you had all kinds of problems within the region and there was a lot of suspicion. So how how do we overcome that suspicion and rivalry? And when I look back at it, I realized that actually the Indonesian diplomats in a very sort of understated fashion tried to get everyone to compromise, you know, and the Indonesians developed this concept of what you call mushawara and mufakat, which means consultation and consensus, Right. And so that that somehow rather I don't know how got planted into the DNA of Assean from a very early time and because of that DNA of consultation and consensus where everybody compromises then you end up with a result whereby Assan has become so peaceful and what's interesting by the way the other miracle of ASEAN that many people don't seem to realize.
You know, in many other regions when two countries have been at war with each other and when the war ends, the bitterness continues and they don't talk to each other, they don't come together. See, by contrast, in Asean, we used to be I used to fight the Vietnamese ambassador for, you know, long time in in the UN in the 1980s. But when the cold war ended, ASEAN admitted Vietnam into ASEAN. And that's amazing. A former adversary. And what's even more remarkable is that uh in in October, next month, uh Timo Lee will be admitted to ASEAN. Now why why is the admission significant? You know that uh Timolestie as you know used to be part of Indonesia and then uh became independent. It's in some ways similar to a region called Kosovo that used to be part of Serbia and then it separated right and today relations between Kosovo and Serbia are really bad. They don't talk to each other and there's no way they can have normal relations with each other, right? That's that's a normal situation. And guess what? Even though Timolestie's separation from Indonesia was a painful thing for Indonesia, Indonesia is sponsoring Timole Eststee to join us. Yeah. Now I can tell you this you know you don't even notice it right but this is inconceivable in any other region right and it's a in some ways is similar to India and Pakistan separating from each other and today India and Pakistan can barely talk to each other Serbia and Kosovo can't talk to each other right yeah but here adversaries are supporting each other again that's again I I I hope you realize by now that this is really an unusual state of affairs and and my big worry by the way the reason I talk about it is that because it is so unusual the big danger is that we take it for granted we take we take it like this is normal it's not normal it requires a lot of work a lot of effort and a lot of commitment to try and keep uh Assan uh remain uh peaceful and that's why you know uh I wanted to come and have this this dialogue because if we if we don't uh appreciate what we have today which is a very special and very unusual peaceful situation this region you can lose it and so that's why I think we must all become more conscious of this special nature of So I hope we given enough thoughts for you too.
>> Sorry. Thank you so much Kesha. I mean I think what you've put on the table is something critical for us to think about when we think about regionalism and you know ever since you recently uh worked on the book can Asians think of peace and I noticed when you were traveling the book the con and you mentioned it in the book um in your essay in the book this concept of geopolitical competence. And you were just saying this in the sense that Southeast Asian regionalism, ASEAN evidences geopolitical competence. War reflects geopolitical incompetence, but ASEAN not having had a war reflects geopolitical competence. I was wondering, you know, this idea is so important. If you could flesh it out a little bit more for us, what are there specific cultural values to geopolitical competence?
M well um it's easier to uh spot geopolitical incompetence than to spot geopolitical competence you know and of course you know whenever there's geopolitical incompetence there is wars you know and I believe that every war we see today reflects geopolitical incompetence so for example the war in Ukraine could have been avoided If the EU had made some effort to understand Russia, understand the concerns of Russia and work with Russia, even though Russia is very different and frankly the war in Gaza could have been avoided if the West had made a bigger effort to try and bring a two-state solution to uh the Middle East and give the Palestinians a homeland. If the Palestinians have a homeland, there's no reason for them to have a war. So again, that's a result of geopolitical uh incompetence.
But if you want an example of geopolitical competence, this is a this is a true story I'm going to tell. And it's a bit sad that many Singaporeans are not aware of something brilliant that was done by some of our founding leaders. And I can tell you that you know uh as you all know this story soon um after Singapore became independent there was uh uh as you know during there was a bombing in Singapore Macdonald house as you know by two Indonesian Marines and when the Marines were caught Singapore put them on trial and Singapore hanged them. Now, this made the leader of Indonesia incredibly angry, President Suato, because he was also a general and he didn't want to see his soldiers being hanged in Singapore. And when Singapore refused to listen to Indonesia, uh we hanged the Marines, the Singapore embassy was burnt and things could have spiraled downwards within Indonesia and Singapore, right? The natural situation after that happens when a small country like Singapore snaps the leader of a big country like Indonesia, the relations went down. So what happened? How did things turn around? And here it's a combination of factors. Number one, we actually had a a brilliant in Singapore ambassador in Indonesia. His name was Lee Kuncho. He was a former minister of state. Um and he understood that you have to find a way of assuaging the concerns of the Indonesians. So he recommended to Prime Minister Lee Kwanu that Prime Minister Lee Kwanu should go to the graves of the two Indonesian Marines and sprinkle some flowers. Right? Now in some ways that could have been seen as a humiliating gesture on the part of Mr. Lee Kuanu but he heeded the advice of Ambassador Lee Kunjoy went there sprinkled the flowers and just a simple act of sprinkling the flowers in a sense closed the chapter on a bitter thing but the story doesn't end there what's remarkable is that you know when I was present at some of these meetings president Suhat uh is not a traditional western educ educated person. In fact, President Suhat was a very traditional Javanese mind and his mind was full of Javanese mysticism and he didn't understand the legalistic Anglo-Saxon world. Now, Lie Kwanu's mind was completely Anglo-Saxon legal mind, right? Everything clear, straightforward, you know, these are the rules, these are the lines. So there should have been no meeting of minds between Lie Kuwanu and Suhat at all. But amazingly Mr. Lee Kwanu decided that he had to understand the mind of uh President Suato. So not only uh so he began to uh immerse himself in Bahasa, Indonesia. And I was told he would spend hours listening to speeches of President Suhat in Bahasa to try and understand how he used his language and his mind and all that. And then so when he when he spoke to President Suhat, he could use the language and concepts that President Suhat had used in his speeches already. Now, believe me, uh, this takes hours and hours and hours of work, but Mr. Lee Kwanu was determined to do it. And I can tell you, it was this very unusual friendship that developed within two minds of two completely different cultural universes that enabled Assan to come together. because by far the two strongest leaders at that time on Southeast Asia were President Suhat of Indonesia and Mr. Lee Kwanu of Singapore. So when the two leaders came together, it provided the bridge for Assean. Again, this is a story that almost nobody knows, you know, but this is and can you imagine if the European leaders had done the same thing, had immersed themselves in Russian, listened to hours and hours of the speeches of Putin to understand the mindset of the man and why he thinks Ukraine is so important to the future of Russian. And and you know, many people rubbish Putin's views. Jukan his views do matter but the fact that the Europeans have made no effort whatsoever is actually quite shocking but it it reflected by the way and this is where the larger historical context matters a lot. It reflects the at that time at the end of the cold war the Europeans thought they had won the cold war. So they became very arrogant. They saw no reason for compromise with anybody. We have won. We are the top dogs. We decide. You accept what what we are today. And that arrogance and arrogance clearly leads to geopolitical incompetence. Whereas humility by the way is a very good quality to have in geopolitics. And that's what uh that's what this region had. So that that's the contrast between what's so special about uh Southeast Asia and other regions.
>> What we have just heard was a geopolitical master class on how peace is made. Mr. Machbubani used no ornate language. Instead, with solid regional comparisons and vivid historical stories, he revealed the secret behind the miracle of Southeast Asia. He laid out several key points for us. First, the peace in Southeast Asia is a counterintuitive miracle. A region that should have been rife with conflict due to its extreme diversity has instead achieved lasting peace, subverting all Western geopolitical theories. Second, the region's success stems from its unique eastern wisdom. Whether it's the humility of Indonesia, the largest member choosing not to dominate, or the magnanimity to turn former adversaries like Vietnam and Timor Leste into partners, it reflects a mindset completely different from the West's zero sum game. Third, true geopolitical competence is found in humility, not arrogance. He drew a sharp contrast between the moving story of Lie Kuwanu spending hours learning Bahasa to understand Saharto's mind and the failed case of Europe whose arrogance after the cold war led to a misjudgment of Russia and ultimately war. This conversation also leaves us with some critical questions to reflect on. Is the geopolitical incompetence caused by arrogance in Europe as Makbubani revealed the root cause of the series of domestic and foreign policy crises the western world faces today? For a world moving towards multipolarity, does the Southeast Asian model of consultation and consensus and not imposing one's will on others offer a more constructive future than the West's confrontational model? And finally, how are we to understand how a region once defined by the West as a tinderbox ultimately achieved peace while Europe, which proclaimed itself the center of civilization, can never seem to escape the ghost of war. If you found this episode valuable, please like, comment, share, and subscribe to our channel. Thank you for watching.