Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance, and we're going to just continue to discuss how that rotation back to Bitcoin is already underway.
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I wanted to mention that I will be going to Bitcoin Amsterdam, uh, next month. It's a little over a month from now, and I'm looking forward to meeting a lot of you guys there. It's always great going and meeting a lot of people and going to a lot of the talks and whatnot. So, I'm looking forward to that.
I will say with, you know, with something like Bitcoin dominance that we've talked about a lot, one of the things we mentioned was that it would likely find a low in September and then build off of that low. And that dominance should go up for basically all of October after forming a low in September. Now, what's really interesting is that just about every week, you know, someone's reaching out and saying, "Well, what about Bitcoin dominance?" Like they, they, they feel like it's not going up, but it is, right? Like it is. And, you know, if you look at it right now, about a month ago, the week of September 8th, dominance was at 57%. Now it's the week of October 6th. So about a month ago, right now, a month later, we're now at 59%. So dominance is going up, right? It is moving higher. We are seeing alts, that liquidity in the altcoin market. We are seeing it go back to Bitcoin. It's happening. It's just not obvious to people yet. But I think the rotation's already underway.
There are times where it takes a little while, right? I mean, you know, people are like, "Well, you said dominance would find a low in September. You said it would go up in October." And I'm like, guys, like that's what's happening, you know? Like there's the narrative that, you know, you're, you're potentially being fed. And then there's what's actually happening, right? And, and dominance has found a low in September and it's been moving higher.
And, you know, if you go back and look at other years where we've had similar types of moves, 2020, we've made the comparisons to 2020 for Bitcoin. Um, and one of the reasons for that is is just kind of this idea of a capitulation low, up, sideways, up, sideways, and then down into the bull market. Two weeks up, two weeks down, and then you break through in October, right? That's the same thing that's happened this year. You have your capitulation low, go up, sideways, up two weeks, down two weeks, and then you break through in October. It's really similar.
And when you look at what Bitcoin dominance did back in 2020, it was around these same levels. In fact, the week of October 5th, the week of October 5th, Bitcoin dominance opened the week at 59.35%. The week of October 6th, Bitcoin Dominance opened the week at 59.31%. So it's basically the exact same level today as it was exactly five years ago. And it took a little while. I mean, back then, you can see that dominance found a low here the same time frame and then it just, it started slowly moving up. No one really believed that it was right. It felt like, you know, people were still calling for alt season. And then before we knew it, once we got into mid-October, maybe about a week and a half from now, that's when Bitcoin dominance shot a lot higher, right? And, and in one week, it went from 60% to 62%.
So, I think it's relevant to remember that, you know, it might not feel like the rotation is happening. Like it might not feel like it is, but it is. And if you go look at altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs, like you can see that they found a high in September. And in 2020, you can see that alt Bitcoin pairs were about the same level as they are today. October of 2020, alt Bitcoin pairs were at the same level. And some people like, well, you know, how could they go down and then still got another move up? I mean, look at the chart, right? I mean, in 2020, they had this massive drop into early November and then they got a bounce, and then they had another drop into December, and then they got another bounce, right? And even in 2017, alt Bitcoin pairs rallied on up. And, you know, the week of October 9th, in October of 2017, alt Bitcoin pairs were at the same level that they're at today on October 10th. And back then, alt Bitcoin pairs still dropped from 0.04, which is where they are right now, all the way down to 0.25. And then they, and then they rallied, and then they dropped again to 0.27 in early December.
So again, like there's a lot of people that say, well, you know, how can this be? Like, how can, how do we have time for alts to drop against Bitcoin? Guys, there's always time for alts to drop against Bitcoin. That's what they do best, right? That's what altcoins, the thing you can count on them to do is bleed against the king. You can count on that. Now, are there times where alts rally against Bitcoin? Yes. Is one of, is right now one of those times? I don't think so.
And again, as a reminder, when you go look at monthly returns of Bitcoin dominance, what you'll see as we've hovered is that October is the best month usually, and we've only just begun. And so, you have to remember that there's plenty of time in October for dominance to head a lot higher. Okay.
And when you look at where dominance opened the month in October of 2020, it opened the month at 59.12%. Where did we open up at October 2025? 59.03. So they both opened the month at 59%. And then 2020 October ended, dominance ended at the month 64%. All right. In October of 2017, dominance went from 54 to 64. 54 to 64. So, at the end of October 2017 and the end of October 2020, Bitcoin dominance found itself at 64%.
So, I understand there's a lot of people that are sitting here that were calling for alt season a couple of weeks ago and saying that dominance was going to crash and now they're like, "Oh crap." You know, we were wrong again about about calling for this alt season and telling people to trade their Bitcoin for altcoins. They're wrong again. And now they're like, "All right, well, maybe it just goes up to 60%." You know? So, so some people are like, they're changing their tune now. They're like, "Oh, well, you know, maybe it'll go back up to 60 and then, and then for sure it'll get rejected." But like, what if it doesn't get rejected? What if it just powers back on through? You know, like that's, that's a scenario I don't really think a lot of people are even considering right now. Whereas 57% for Bitcoin dominance was always a level we talked about it potentially going down to because that's exactly where it went to, you know, on this trend line the last couple of years.
So again, I, like, I understand there's a lot of guys out there like just constantly calling for alt season, and I'm not saying they won't eventually be right. But the problem is that if you spend the entire cycle calling for alt season, and you end up buying altcoins for four years instead of Bitcoin, in terms of your Satoshi valuation, you now require an alt season just to break even against Bitcoin. And so that's why with alts, timing does matter, you know, like it's not, it's not enough to just say just you wait, right? I mean, like if, if you've been buying alts instead of Bitcoin for years now, you know, you've suffered the consequences unless you bought the altcoins that you probably bought because I'm not talking about your alts, but what everyone else did.
So we have to remember, in order for the bull market to continue, liquidity must flow to the king. Okay? Ethereum does not lead the bull market. Solana does not lead the bull market. BNB does not lead the bull market. None of those things lead the bull market. Bitcoin leads the bull market. And if Bitcoin ever stops leading the bull market, then the cycle's in the final innings. Usually by the time you get an alt season, the cycle's over, right? So you might have a month or so. So basically, the people that keep calling for alt season keep calling for the end of the cycle. Now, eventually they'll be right. But again, timing is everything, right? It, it, it doesn't make sense to sit around and, and, and just kind of call for that alt season every month for four years and be wrong, only to eventually be right, but recognize that you would have just been better off with Bitcoin the entire time.
There's this, like, there's this common misconception, and I think this cycle is like the first cycle in a long time where it's teaching good investment principles. A lot of people just think that the way to do well in crypto is to just buy all these random altcoins and hope that one of them goes up 100x, and then they laugh at the idea of of holding with, you know, sticking with Bitcoin instead. And because, you know, people say, well, you can't get rich on Bitcoin. But the problem is that, you know, Bitcoin went up like what, 7x, 8x from the low, which is a a great move, and a lot of people spent a lot of time chasing altcoins instead and ended up underperforming Bitcoin. Now, there might have been times during the cycle where some of the altcoins did well and outperformed Bitcoin, but the problem is that the altcoins that outperformed Bitcoin in like 2023 are not the same ones that outperformed in 2024 and not the same ones that outperformed in 2025.
If you look at Total 2 minus divided by Bitcoin, right? Total 2. You can see that you have three different areas where people have called for alt season, you know, in January 2024, in December of 2024, and in September of 2025, and even arguably in August of 2022. So, and every single time there was a narrative, right? This was the, you know, back in 2022, it was the merge, right, for Ethereum, the merge and then quote unquote alt season, but it was a lower high. And then in 2024, in early 2024, it was the, um, the, the beginning of the Solana move, right? You had the Solana move and that was the alt season. Okay? And then in late 2024, you had, it was the, the memecoin, right? And it was all the, um, you know, people were calling it like the memecoin super cycle, right? You guys remember that? The memecoin super cycle alt season. And then now, now it's, it's moved on, right? Now for the last few months, it was the, we were back to the Ethereum and also more recently BNB alt season. But the problem, the problem is like, I'm not saying you can't make money with it. The problem is they've all just been lower highs. And the alt season should not, is a word that should not be used lightly. So many people spend so many years calling for it that like, I, I feel like to some degree, like alt credibility gets lost because alt season, like this, and this, and this is not alt season, right? These big moves, this is what alt season is. And that is not something that we've seen this cycle. It's just not.
Now, maybe that will change, but again, in October, liquidity flows back to the king because Bitcoin leads the bull market. And if Bitcoin ever stops leading it, then the cycle is over. So it might seem counterintuitive to hope for something like this, but Bitcoin dominance going up is actually a good thing. It's a good thing. And if you don't think it's a good thing, then I think your brain is wired incorrectly when it comes to thinking about the crypto markets. And it needs to be rewired because every single time we get a little rally by alts on their Bitcoin pairs, people call for alt season, and then a few months later, those alts just bleed out to Bitcoin again. And so I think liquidity will flow back to the king once again. The final rotation's already underway, even if people refuse to believe it.
Again, I will be going to Bitcoin Amsterdam next month. I hope to see you guys there. Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time.