Transcription
America missed [music] because they set up their military bases too close to Iran. Iran then went in and destroyed various equipment at US military bases in nearby countries, in fact, everywhere. Each of these bases was invested in at a level of billions of dollars or more. Iran tried to send missiles in. It was the first time they used surface-to-surface missiles. Apparently, they missed by about 500 meters. The information that came out was that Israel had a way to jam the GPS. Trump, at a time when he was losing, could he turn into a winner? Many diverse [music] [singing] products, Suphap Oshot, for over 70 years and will shine forever. [Singing] [music] Suphap Oshot >> But I want to say that what makes the US disadvantaged now is that of the military bases in America, the ones they set up in the Middle East, there are only two countries left that are being looked after, which are Bahrain and Qatar, right, professor? Other countries don't want them anymore. Now, if Iran attacks, the main targets are these two countries. Most recently, I feel like what you wrote on Facebook was that they attacked very accurately. Professor, please analyze a bit. Where will the response of the third world war, the third round, go next? If it continues to attack like this? >> It's like this. The fighting with Iran, since the beginning, within a few weeks, Iran has been accurate in sending missiles to destroy various equipment at US military bases in nearby countries, in fact, everywhere. As I told you, they sent missiles to destroy radars, and each radar investment was in the billions of dollars. They were completely destroyed. Therefore, right now, what the US is doing is bringing in aircraft and using them to hover to try to protect ships passing through the Strait of Oman and other areas. But I think the US knows now that it cannot win with air power alone. On the contrary, Iran has been able to attack important points of the US in a frightening way. I watched a clip of a person, I don't remember his name, but he was a former retired US soldier. In the past, he was the commander of CENTCOM, the center for fighting in the Middle East. He said America made a mistake by setting up military bases too close to Iran, and said that it was within about 100 kilometers, so there was no way to defend them. This is the direction it's going. I think the US is very shocked by this, that within a distance of about 100 kilometers, Iran can accurately send missiles to destroy military bases. Everyone thought it was normal. Two days ago, Iran attacked Jordan for the first time. And in Jordan, they have what they call hangars, which are very large aircraft hangars, two of them were just built after the war, to hide from satellite cameras. Inside, whether there are planes or not, I don't know. Besides that, there is also a center for storing and repairing their expensive drones, also in Jordan. Apparently, Iran was able to send missiles in, and the US military base in Jordan is a large base, their main base. Therefore, we know they must have defensive equipment, whether it's Patriot missiles or whatever. It turns out that Iran's missiles could reach them. They sent only 11 missiles and were able to destroy these hangars, penetrating both points in Jordan. I think this is what made America so shocked, that it could be this accurate. And don't forget, the distance from Iran to Jordan is over a thousand kilometers. Therefore, I wrote on Facebook this morning that the next day, suddenly, the US moved its F-22 Raptor aircraft, which are expensive stealth aircraft, which were placed at a very expensive base in Israel, out of there. At first, people misunderstood, thinking that the US was probably trying to reduce its forces, reduce its aircraft, reduce its military power. But from what I see and analyze myself, I don't think so. It's because they were shocked that Iran has such a high destructive capability. This makes it difficult for them to have military bases in the future in terms of force deployment. >> It's quite surprising because Jordan is quite far away and it's a large, well-defended military base, as you just said. At the beginning of the war, there were attempts to fire, but they were all defended. But this time, they couldn't defend. I think they might have developed something in the last 3-4 months of the war. Perhaps they have added equipment to evade or AI calculations, whatever it is. Because now, missiles are getting smarter and smarter because they have AI. And Iran's AI is not ordinary AI. >> It [inhales] is AI that they researched themselves, and researched for missiles. So they have the ability to make them smarter and smarter. But I don't know. But what I saw was the Sharif University of Technology, which was bombed by the Americans, the whole building collapsed, professor, the whole building collapsed. >> And they said that this was where Iran's AI research was done, and there were many scientists there. I don't know how many died, but I know that the whole building collapsed. They took me to see it and said, "This is a real university, why did you bomb it?" And another place, I found a vaccine institute that produces vaccines for export throughout the Middle East and the world. They all came from there. And why did you bomb the vaccine institute? But I think there were many scientists there, and the large buildings all collapsed. >> Yes. >> They admit that the Patriots are really accurate. America's Patriots, when they land, they land right in the center. Professor, America has superiority. >> Right, right, right. The offensive side, the offensive side is not, not, not the Patriot. The Patriot is only for defense. The offensive side is called Tomahawk. >> Oh, Tomahawk. Okay, I misspoke. [Laughter] >> Tomahawk, I think it comes from a submarine, right, professor? And it's probably about 90 million per missile, right? [Laughter] >> Ah, ah. >> They say they used Elon Musk's XAI. >> Uh-huh. >> Used Anmus's XAI for calculation, calculated various points, and was able to completely destroy it. At first, they were going to use the [inaudible] but the owner didn't allow them to use it, so they switched to XI. The [inaudible] is better. >> At first, they used it themselves because it was better than XCI, but they were prevented from using it. So that's one thing we heard and felt, well, we respect those who don't want to use AI in war. But I think Iran must also have scientists who took someone else's AI and incorporated it to make it more accurate. Professor, you recently said that the high accuracy uses a precision system of 10 cm. 10 cm is the target of an arrow. >> Correct. This is a Chinese satellite. >> Yes. >> So. >> What I saw before, it's like this. Originally, when they fought in June last year, I saw a clip. Iran tried to send missiles to attack the radar of the US. Apparently, they released a clip showing they missed by about 500 meters. >> Uh-huh. >> Yes, I saw it. The information that came out was that Israel had a way to jam the GPS. >> Oh. >> Ah, and that caused Iran's missiles to go off course. So I tried it. I said, "If that's the case, I'll try using Google Maps and type in the coordinates." I typed in the coordinates to Tel Aviv. Do you believe it, it showed an airport in Jordan? [Laughter] It was hidden. It was hidden. >> But after that, Iran switched to using Chinese satellites. As you mentioned, Chinese satellites indicated very high accuracy. And theirs is encrypted, meaning communication with Chinese satellites cannot be interfered with. >> That's one reason why it's more accurate and interference-free. So I think Iran also has AI technology. I wasn't sure at first, but Iranians themselves said they have their own AI center, and their AI center collects all information about Iran. It was bombed by the United States. [Laughter] So America is smart. They bombed the heart, their AI center. I'll bomb it first. Then Iran also bombed many AI centers in the Middle East. So I think this fight is endless, professor. And I want to say that the current situation, do you think Trump will back down next Sunday? Meaning, after thinking about it again, he realized he was losing badly. If he continues, he probably won't go anymore. Will he go back to the original position? Professor, do you think that's possible? >> Right now, the one who refuses to talk is Iran. Iran has clearly stated, Iran recently came out and said, Professor, Zarif came out and said, "We are still trying to proceed." They said exactly that. >> Yes, but Iran says that before talking, you must fulfill the conditions set in the MOU. >> Oh. >> The important conditions are, first, Israel must stop interfering with Lebanon. Right? And second, the assets that were seized must be released. They clearly stated that if this is done, negotiations can begin again. >> Okay, I understand. So they are taking advantage of this opportunity. Let's stare at each other. Whoever blinks first loses. >> Correct, yes. >> You won't release them, so I'll stay put. You'll have to come out and yield eventually. I think so. >> What if they don't agree, professor? Will the fighting continue? >> Well, right now it's like this. Donald Trump, in each of these situations, he tries to find something different. Most recently, when he attacked this morning, I read the news and was shocked. It was the first time they used surface-to-surface missiles. >> Uh-huh. >> By firing missiles from Kuwait and Bahrain. >> Into Iran? >> This is the same type of missile they used in Ukraine and fired at Russia. Its operational range is 150 kilometers, easily. >> Yes. >> This is the problem. For these two countries to allow the US to fire weapons like this, in my opinion, Iran must consider this crossing a red line. Because if neighboring countries allow America to do this, and Iran doesn't react, it will continue. And the nature of these missiles, only 100-150 kilometers, their accuracy is high. But the main point now is that Iran is trying to insist that Arab countries must not allow themselves to be used as tools by America to attack them. This morning, this happened, and I was confused. This is Trump trying to drag Arab countries into the war. He's dragging Kuwait and Bahrain. But I don't think this will succeed easily. Originally, I thought if this happened, Iran might attack Bahrain and Kuwait, but not military bases. They might attack other assets of the Kuwaiti and Bahraini governments. I'm still worried that if that happens, it will be a mess. But surprisingly, Iran has held back. And first of all, the news that they used surface-to-surface missiles, no one has confirmed that they actually used them. Second, I think Iran might be opening a channel for Kuwait and Bahrain to emphasize to the US that they must not use surface-to-surface missiles like this in the future. I don't know. But at least, I think the world can breathe a sigh of relief that there won't be a problem with the oil export infrastructure of Kuwait and Bahrain. The problem is, we are looking at Trump at a time when he is trying to find a way out. He is trying to see if he can get through this. Can he save face and turn from a loser into a winner? And the nature of the cards that have been played, trying to draw Arab countries in, is very dangerous. But as far as I can see now, it hasn't worked yet. So we have to keep watching this kind of card. If it really works, it shows that Trump is tired and has run out of ideas. >> It does seem surprising, but I understand. Bahrain and Kuwait are countries that are directly opposed to Iran. Because Bahrain was formerly a province of Iran. Its rulers are anti-Iran because they don't want to go back to dealing with Iran. But the majority of the population is Shia. The population of Bahrain is actually the same as Iran, but the rulers are Sunni. >> Which is a problem for that country. They know they won't get along with Iran, because if they get along with Iran, they'll be taken over. >> Kuwait is the same. It's a country that is a US client. America controls it 100%. We know what happened during the Gulf War. So the ruler of Kuwait would never agree if Iran became dominant. The ruler of Kuwait would be overthrown first. >> So these two countries have to fight to the death. >> So, but other countries, I think it's difficult. Other countries have seen that if America stays, they will surely collapse, because Iran will not tolerate it. >> I see, and I think it's the last stronghold for Americans, but these two countries. But I don't know what Donald Trump is thinking. He keeps firing. He uses emotion more than reason. Right now, he thinks miracles exist. He's that kind of person, I think. He thinks if he keeps doing it, there might be an opening, there might be a chance. So he keeps doing it. >> It's like this, you have to understand that when Trump pushed the ships through, there was one oil tanker and one LNG tanker. And when they went through, Iran attacked the oil tanker, which belonged to Saudi Arabia. It's not a commercial ship, it's a state-owned enterprise ship from Aramco. The gas tanker also belonged to Qatar, so it was a government ship. In other words, for Arab countries to allow their ships to be used as tools in America's challenge to Iran, it's like "waving your feet to find a thorn." >> Uh-huh, true. >> But they agreed. But they agreed to do it. And this shows that the politics between Arab countries and Iran is still complicated. >> True. The reason for using these two countries is that these two countries have the power to pressure and change things. But I think it's an agreement that involves risk. Otherwise, it's like we're not taking America's side, and America will get even more angry. So it's okay, they take the risk. And I don't think Iran will sink their ships. At most, they'll fire a warning shot or something. I think so. And what I also understand is that the ships will pass through without charge. Why don't you wait 60 days, let the oil fill up the route, and then think about this and that when Iran collects money? Are you impatient, professor? >> No, no, no. Because Trump needs to save face. He needs to save his own face so that Americans see that he is not a loser. This needs to be done urgently. That's why he needs to find someone. He can't get the ships through, so he has to push others. [Laughter] >> This person, that person, and that person, to get commercial ships, and they have to be commercial ships. And to pass through. >> Oh, I see. >> The first one was from Singapore. >> Yes, the first one was from Singapore. That's why, simply put, anyone who follows Trump ends up with damage like this, but they still agree. >> Therefore, it shows that the relationship between Arab countries and Iran is still complicated. >> Yes, what the professor means is that Saudi Arabia doesn't love Iran, Qatar doesn't love Iran, but due to pressure from both sides, they have to do it. And I think Donald Trump has to do it to save face, as the professor said. But another thing he wants is pressure. He knows that after 60 days, Iran will definitely seize Hormuz. He has to solve it now. If he doesn't solve it in 60 days, he won't be able to. He tried it, and it didn't work. So the situation will only get worse. But it's okay, professor. As you said, he has changed his mind 39 times, and the 40th time, he will still [laughter] sign a contract, sign a contract. There must be a 41st time, professor. >> I don't know. I don't know. Right now, I think the world cannot place too much hope. I am looking at it pessimistically. If, for example, the oil price is not controlled, and the situation escalates, and the oil price cannot be contained, the oil price will rise very high. And when it reaches a certain point, it will put pressure on the global economy. Every country must plan for it. >> When you say you look at it pessimistically, do you mean Trump will continue the war and keep closing the Strait of Hormuz for another month or two? >> No, no. I don't think he knows what cards to play at this point. One card he can play is to close, to block the Strait of Hormuz, to close it again. And this is like escalating something. But if Trump remains indifferent, I believe Iran will not open the Strait of Hormuz. They will continue to say that only a certain number of ships can pass each day. And Trump will still lose. >> Therefore, when Trump acts like this, after all this, he can't withdraw or not withdraw. It's all difficult. >> If he stays quiet, pretends not to know, he still loses. >> It's still better for the global economy. >> For countries like us, who are related, if we stay quiet and accept the situation, it's manageable in terms of politics. But politically, Trump will fail. He's already failing, and he'll fail even harder. >> That's right. He should have withdrawn after the second week. He's let it go for four months now. It's difficult to withdraw. >> That's Trump's strength. [Laughter] He doesn't give up. >> Uh-huh. >> He doesn't give up. Miracles might happen. Maybe Iran will break into pieces. [Laughter] Is that possible, professor, looking at it this way? >> No, I don't think so. Right now, they are planning. Before this, they wanted to use the Qashqai group, which is in the northwest, bordering Iraq. Because these people don't like Iran, and they might try to invade. It's like using proxy warfare, with American forces behind them, and these people invading from Iraq, in the hope that it might lead to a change in government or something. This might still be a dream for the US. But as of today, it's clear. The navy, no need to talk about it, they don't dare to come close. The air force has bombed so much, they don't know how else to bomb. They can't do anything. They've come out and fought. Only the army is left. As I said, if they do it now, they can't go in directly because Iran's terrain is surrounded by mountains. >> Very high mountains. >> Yes. So there's no way to go in directly. The only way is to rely on these people. And I see that right now, they should have surrendered. But they are still persisting. >> They are out of options. Because they are fighting with their hearts. I admire them. They fight with their hearts, truly not giving up. They are very resilient. But their resilience hurts them. Instead of doing something else, they've wasted months on Iran and only suffered heavy losses. I sincerely hope that Donald will change his mind this Monday and announce that we will continue negotiations and put other matters aside. I think there's a high chance of that. I'll give it 60%. And if it happens as you said, that the fighting continues, then the remaining 40%. >> No [laughter] no, no. I think Trump will try to allow negotiations again. Iran will say, "Okay, we can agree, but under conditions." >> What they call peak conditions, that you must fulfill first, are like this and this. And then they might try to drag it out. It's an opportunity for Iran. They will say, "Before we sit at the table, you go and clear up the issue with Israel first. You go and clear up the assets you've frozen. How much can you do?" I think it's better than doing nothing. Iran guarantees that they won't suddenly jump and sit at the negotiation table. No way. They will stall. And during the stalling, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and closed a little. >> Opened and closed, yes. It will continue like this. >> They can go. Some ships, allies first. Those who are enemies, don't block, don't come. It will probably be the same. >> It will be like before. >> They will probably do that as a bargaining chip. I sincerely hope that negotiations will continue next week, and we will not be troubled. Thai people will be able to survive. >> Yes, yes. [Music] >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to Su Tao's channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.