Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Thursday, November 20, 2025, in front of a cryptomap that is completely crushing the mashed potatoes. Unfortunately, it's not pretty today. We have the altcoins falling, Bitcoin falling, we also have the stock market, right. Look at the instant specs, the NASDAQ, everyone is eating a lot of red cake. It seems like nobody liked the employment figures that came out at 2:30 PM. We will of course talk about it. It was quite cheeky because the stock market opened in a big green just before. Futures were very green. So there was a big pump at the opening and bam, directly the big dump. Whereas for cryptos, it was a direct dump. For me, there is no problem with that. Well, it's still ugly, right. It's annoying, it takes a long time to make a nice bottom. Anyway, bottoms are used to make people capitulate, right. People capitulate when they really can't take it anymore, you see. That's it. So, it's always, it's always long. Unfortunately, the market is still in extreme fear. And well, after a while, we will surely find a little bottom, especially in the oversold zones on Bitcoin as we have had for a few days. Well, it's not often. The last time it plunged into oversold territory like this, well, it was in February, you see. So it's twice a year, once or twice a year that you have an oversold zone on Bitcoin. So it stings, it hurts, it's long, but well, after a while, these are phases that allow for accumulation for those who can. I'm talking about Bitcoin, I'm not talking about altcoins like that. Well, so for now, the market is still in extreme fear, normal. Well, after all, you have to stay a little optimistic for Bitcoin. I'm talking about at least because there are quite a few on-chain indicators that show us a capitulation on the short positions, capitulation of short-term holders, strong accumulation by whales. Go watch yesterday's morning news video. They are buying, they are buying, they are buying, and then after a while, everyone who wanted to sell will have sold, there will be nothing left to sell, and then it will be over, you see. Well, the ETFs did a little bit of green yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs at plus 75 million. Well, but it still looks ugly, Monday, Tuesday, and I'm sure that today we will have ugly sales figures for the ETFs, for the Ethereum ETF, it's the same. So, these are small figures, but well, it still looks ugly, ugly. So the altcoins unfortunately continue to take a bit of a hit. On the other hand, there is still bullish divergence, right. That is to say, the price is falling while the momentum indicators are not falling as much. So that's good news. After, as I was telling you, well, the structure has been saying it for quite some time, well, we would need to break the little low of this wick. It's showing a small minus 5. So, will we still have a bad Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, you see, this thing could last another week or a few days, right, to make another small minus 5 on the altcoins. To finally reach the bottom of this wick. Remember this nuclear wick, the market doesn't often miss huge wicks, as I was telling you, because markets that do that, well, they are often retested, very often retested, and look here, October 10th, a month later, a month and a half later, boom, we're going to retest the wick, right. So, what's not good is yes, the wick that is still waiting. We are not surprised. What's good is still these divergences that are there. Our little Bitcoin love. Well, already very early this morning, it told us, I'm going to be ugly, okay, because here it was proposing a small running, little by little, but small, it's boom. I told you in the VIP channel this morning, where we did, where we sent you the video every morning around 7:30-8 AM. I send a video on the VIP Telegram channel. There was a small running, small A, small B, small C. Boom. So the structure, it, it, it told us, "This morning, it stung, it's not pretty, it's a running, and it didn't miss." The structure is very often right, right. So here, small running, small A, small B, small C. Boom. Well, congratulations to all those who are short. Here, it was an easy structure to take. Now, well, unfortunately, my little love, it continues, it continues. What we would like to see is rather a loss of momentum. That is to say, we don't want to see a Bitcoin that sinks, sinks, sinks, sinks like that. When it sinks, it's not very cool. On the other hand, we want to see a channel form above all. And there, it would be very cool to see a channel to see it take off. So we will survive. We wouldn't want it to start sinking directly towards $84,000, you see. 84, 85. No, that would be, that would not be a bearish channel, that would be all ugly. So we hope to have this kind of structure that loses momentum like this, and then it will smell even more of a bottom to take off. If it sinks directly, it won't be pretty. We are under the lower band, well, we are stuck to it around $88,000. Well, if tomorrow we have a red candle that breaks the $88,000, the Bollinger band, well, it will be a descent. Tac, tac, tac. But after a while, well, we'll have to stop the descent. Here, Bitcoin is in the oversold zone. Oversold zone, we are at 25. It's starting to be a lot. The last time it went to the max, it went to around 24, you see. We, on the RSI, we are around 25. So, to tell you that it's really oversold, the market, anyway, people are panicking, and it's in these zones that, after a while, well, those who hold on are rewarded. But here, it's true that it stings, it stings, it stings. It had been 8, 9 months since we had seen an RSI this low. And the last time, so the last time we saw this, it was in February. And the time before that, the time before that, it was here, it was in August. In August, when it wasn't pretty, you see, June, then August, there was a not-so-good period in 2024, and then before August 2024, it was August 2023. So you see, these oversold zones are not frequent. You see, you had March 2023, August 2023, then about a year later, summer August 2024, then about 6 months later, 6, 7 months later, February 2025, and then about 7, 8 months later, around November. So you see, these are quite rare zones. It's rare for Bitcoin to go into oversold territory, and when it's oversold, everyone is afraid. My God, take my Bitcoins, I see them losing, I don't want them anymore. Well, yes, no problem. Here, I'll take them. I'll take them. Go ahead, fill my bag. But after, well, I know what I can do too, right. I have a little bit of money, I'll break my piggy bank, take out a little 16 terabytes, a few terabytes, three little terabytes, and with three terabytes, how much can I buy? Well, no, so it's still whipping at the futures level. Well, there's still a little bit to eat. So now you'll tell me, Foufou, there's always something to eat in the south. Yes, there's always something to eat in the south. There are always people placing long positions, long positions. But after a while, it calms down more and more people, because boom, it falls, every rebound it falls. Every rebound it falls. After a while, they say, "Ah no, that's it, I'm not placing long positions anymore, I don't want to anymore, you see." Well, that's the idea. We also see that since around November 14th, it's been about 6 days, shorts have started to exceed longs. So the market is starting to be more shorted than longed, you see. Whereas before, there were many more longs than shorts, you see, since the beginning of October. So this is quite good to see. After a while, if there are too many shorts, well, the market might go to get them. You see, it would be good if it went to get those 10 billion that are waiting at $102,000 for Ethereum. There, finally, we've talked about it. We've talked about it. It went fast because when I was preparing the video, it hadn't gone to get the famous gap. The famous gap, it went to get it. That's what I personally wanted, because gaps need to be closed, and at least that's settled. Well, Ethereum closed its gap. Ah no, on futures. Yes, on futures, wait, it's not closed on futures. Ah, on futures, there's a small minus 0.37 missing. Go on, little one, close it. Ah, go on, close it, damn it. Well, so on futures, there's a tiny bit missing for it to go and close this gap. Come on, go ahead. Maybe it will do it during the video. Well, and if it's closed, it will be good news. It will be good news. Finally, well, knowing that here we see that the price of Ethereum is crashing, but we see that here the RSI, which entered the overbought zone, is making a small bullish divergence here on the RSI, same as on the MACD. So, this is starting to become interesting. Like bearish divergences in the middle of an oversold zone, it's not pretty. It always ends in the red. Well, always very, very, very often in the red. But bullish divergences in the middle of an oversold zone, they very, very, very often end in the green. You see, that's the idea. So, for it to go and close its gap finally at 2853, we've been talking about it for so long, so it's good news. And moreover, when it closes its gap in an oversold zone with bullish divergences, well, it's even more good news. So the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and for Ethereum, it will be rewarded after a while. So here, it needs to be on futures, ah, there's a small minus 19 left. Come on. Oh, but it's almost done. Well, maybe it will go there afterwards to close. So that will be good news. Same for Ethereum. The structure is not bad at all. This morning too, I was talking about a small drop for the structure, it's not bad at all. Well, so zigzag, zigzag, we like that. Zigzag, zigzag, zigzag. This bearish channel, we like it. As long as it remains a bearish channel like this, after a while it will take off again. Structures often do that. Well, so for now, it's pretty, and of course, you have to wait a little bit on futures. It's eating a little bit there. It might eat until 2008, maybe 2775. There's a little bit left, but the bulk of it is to the north. So, come on, close that little gap, there's almost nothing left, and then we'll smash everything. No. After a while, you have to do it. No, I don't know. Well, regarding Solana, well, that's annoying. Solana still has a small minus 8% to go to reach its gap. So, will the market take another hit for Solana to close its gap at a high price too? Well, that would be good. Solana, it would also be good, well, for it to go and close it. I think if it goes to close it, it will also draw a bit more bullish divergence because we can see, here on the RSI, there's no divergence, but there are divergences on the MACD, which is rather good. So after, when you look at the structure of Solana here, it's the same, it wasn't very, very pretty. You see, this has a slightly higher probability of boom, of falling, if you want. So really looking for its gap at 121, I wouldn't be surprised at all, and it would even be technically speaking good news to finally close this little gap. So, will we take another hit tomorrow, the day after tomorrow too, as long as Solana goes to look for its gap, because I don't think Solana will do -8% all at once, you see, it will take a few days. Well, so, almost the objectives are met with this little Solana to get there. Knowing that at $121, there's this little, you see, this little, little mountain, hop, go get the 121, it's there, so done, or a little roller coaster ride, we smash about 400 million here on futures. We eat this little gap, we don't talk about it anymore because anyway, the structure here is not pretty, right. This channel also has a higher probability of falling, so we wouldn't be surprised at all if it went to reach $121. And to finish, XRP, well, he is currently breaking his lower Bollinger band. It's not very, very pretty. Not very, very pretty. On the other hand, XRP, is it diverging? Is it diverging? We'll have to wait for the close, but no, no, there's no divergence for now here, in any case, today. So XRP breaking its Bollinger band, it doesn't smell of bullishness because it means it risks falling, falling, falling, and XRP, bam, bam, bam, sliding down. So if tomorrow we have another red candle, ah, it will be very ugly. It means that yes, yes, it will confirm the sliding of XRP downwards and the descent a bit lower for XRP. Not pretty at all, you see. Well, so, okay, let's hope that it does a bit of green for XRP so as not to trigger the diabolical descent and make a green candle to recover the Bollinger band and try to attack again from above, because here it's not pretty. After, XRP also doesn't have much left to eat in the south. A little bit, 1.90, it's small crumbs. To the north, there's a lot there. Come on, come on, push a little, turn around, look at what's behind there, because down below, there's nothing left, right. You have to tell the market. Maybe it hasn't seen it. Well, so it's a shame because with Nvidia, we had good news that made the market grow, but today, it wasn't pretty. Well, so, what happened today? Why? So, I'll show you here the candle for example of the S&P 500, the biggest index in the world. There. So, in short, the S&P 500, I'm going to zoom, zoom, zoom, zoom. It opened here. So, it closed yesterday. Here, it opened there. So a huge gap upwards, and I showed you this since this morning, futures were at +1.5%, +2%. Well, that's very big. So it opened upwards and then bam, the impossible sale. Why did it open upwards? Because people were very excited with Nvidia's figures that came out last night. Well, we were live, it was very nice. Well, you didn't see it live, but it came out around 10 PM. So, very good figures. Very good. I talk about it in this morning's video. Third quarter, never seen before, plus 63% I think compared to the third quarter of last year. Explosion in the fourth quarter, they predict even more than expected. In short, Nvidia is doing well, very, very well. The problem is that today, we had the employment figures, the two biggest figures, the NFP, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment. And as usual, there's always the dilemma. That is to say, the NFP came out at 119,000 job creations, well above the 50,000 that the market expected, but unemployment came out at 0.1, at 4.4 or 4.3. And there, you're like, "Okay, so, will the market say, 'Yeah, there are many more jobs, there are 70,000 more jobs than expected, that's great, employment is picking up.'" Or will the market say, "Oh my God, unemployment is rising by 0.1, we're all going to die." Well, the answer is that the market is looking more at the unemployment figures than the NFP, because to have such a red candle, it means it's looking much more at the unemployment figures. Well, on the other hand, with unemployment rising, Jerome Powell himself said he looks at unemployment figures, the Fed chairman. So, with unemployment rising, the probability of rate cuts increases, so from 30% yesterday, we went to 41.6% today. There. So you see, well, it's always complicated to... Is bad news good news? Does the job market crashing mean the market loves it? Yeah! Because there will be rate cuts. Does employment not doing well mean the market is red because it says, "Oh my God, things are not going well at all." Well, it's complicated right now. It's complicated because the country is in stagflation. Inflation is at its peak, employment is crashing. If Powell cuts rates, he will increase inflation but help employment. If he does nothing, he tries to see if inflation can decrease but employment continues to crash. So, as an investor, at best, you say, "Okay." Well, here, you have a figure that is good, you see, job creation of 119,000 or 50,000, and unemployment that is bad. Okay, which one takes precedence? You see, you don't know, you don't know. Well, so, the market is giving the answer, given the red it's showing, it's not pretty, and apparently, it doesn't like unemployment rising too much. Well, but rising unemployment increases the probability of rate cuts. So that should be bullish. So, is the market not thinking, "Oh no, there are many more jobs than expected, so Powell won't cut rates, but since the probability is increasing, it's ultimately him who counts, you see." So it's always a mess to understand what's happening, but well, you feel it a little bit. So for now, well, the markets don't like it too much. Well, it's not pretty. And you have other sponges? I'll tell you in 3 seconds. So here, the S&P 500 is taking a hit. Nasdaq too, Dow Jones too, Russell, European tech, everyone is taking a hit today, it's settled. The gold, a little red candle, nothing at all. Well, and what are we going to look at? I'll show you that right away. Well, here are the crypto stocks that are all taking a hit, like Bitcoin. Everyone, all down, at least it's settled. And the bond market. So, the bond market, when people rush here to Treasury bonds, for example, the 10-year or the 20-year, making its big green candle, it means they think there's a higher probability of rate cuts. Anyway, that's the case because new bonds issued will be issued with lower yields. And so they rush to buy, well, Treasury bonds on the secondary market that were issued with higher yields. So when you see them there, a big green candle on the bond market, it means it smells more like rate cuts. There. And that's why you see, moreover, well, this is confirmed by this, that there is a higher probability of a rate cut. Well, and so, why is the market red when the bond market is green, the 10-year, the 20-year, and the dollar is not doing much, and it wouldn't like a rate cut too much. This is perhaps also because the market, well, it doesn't like to see unemployment rising. I say it's not pretty. So you see, it's never all black or all white. It's always annoying, this thing. Why is the market red? I think it's red because employment is not doing very well. Or maybe, since the NFP came out much higher than expected, some people think there won't be any rate cuts, they are not happy. Well, but since on the bond market, they are buying Treasury bonds enormously, there is a high probability that many think there will be a rate cut. Well, well, it's always complicated, in any case, for our beloved cryptos. They continue to fall like stocks. We'll see if it starts to break the last levels here, well, it won't be very, very good. If there's a rate cut for December, it will be good news. It's a bit of monetary injection. It will facilitate credit a bit more for companies to boost employment a bit. A bit more money flowing. Well, it's not a big faucet, but it's not too bad. Well, we'll see tomorrow a little bit too how all this behaves. Thank you for listening to me, friends, and I send you kisses, and we'll talk again soon. Bye bye.