Transcription
I mean, it's Cooper. Russ worked two and a half points. I would hope Quinnward put up a decent stat line against Arizona State. If he didn't, we have a real problem.
You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they had a one good game against Kansas at home.
When Toast talks about the kicking market, it's like some earth is flat. Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it's going to be very dog. This is going to be ugly.
Hey, get the sauce. Good evening everybody. Happy Monday morning to you. Sorry, Tuesday morning to you all. Excuse me. I forgot it's Labor Day weekend. I hope you guys everybody had a great Labor Day weekend. Um, I had a pretty good day today. I won't lie. My won't lie. Um, that felt pretty good. Spoon, how was your day today?
I uh went four and three there in baseball. Had a couple tough losses. Um, Toronto Blue Jays blowing a two-run lead in the ninth. That uh that kind of hurt to watch. Then uh the Padres's game had the over seven and a half early out the gate. Got four early runs. Um, felt like it was coming and just I until the last at bat I I thought they had a chance but ended on seven. Oh well, still a winning day.
Yeah, that Padres's game was sad. Not only could they not do anything, then they lost Jason Adam for the year, which is a huge blow to that bullpen. So not great. But anywhos, uh, plenty of games to talk about for tomorrow. Let's get started.
The Mets came through for me today. Thank God. They needed 10 runs and they needed all of them. Uh, and now they go back on the road. Obvious still on the road in Detroit. The kid Nolan McClean on the road versus um, kind of like I'm going assume like a bullpen day, but Gibson Long will still be starting or the primary for Detroit. Um, I really want to bet the Mets here, but I don't think you can with their bullpin situation. Um, you can put the Mets up for me, Kyle. Um, I'll talk about it in a second. Spoon, I'm curious to hear what your thoughts are.
I agree that the side is the Mets. Um, I was waiting for first five lines to open up.
Yeah.
So far only FanDuel has it at minus 140 for the money line. If I can get that at minus 130, I'll get on that pretty quick.
Yeah.
Um, I did move on the total in this game. FanDuel also has a minus 104 on that over eight and a half. Um, it looks like all the books are juicing this closer to minus 120. Um, a lot of the sharper offshores and things that I like to track. So, I think this probably closes pretty well. I look at these teams and it's hard not to take an over with the Mets lately. They just tattoo anybody they see. And I don't think this bullpin day is going to be that much of a silencer for this offense. And then on the opposite side, Nolan McQueen's looked really sharp his first three games out here in the majors. Uh, just two earned runs to the Atlanta Braves. Uh, went eight innings pitched versus Philadelphia, zero earned runs, pitched into the seventh there versus Atlanta. No earned runs to Seattle pitching into the sixth. It's tough to paint an easy picture where he gives up runs, but it does look like he struggles a little bit more with lefties. We know this Tigers lineup has quite a few in there and once we get into the bullpin, um, I think they can get some more runs. So over 8 and a half, I've officially bet it. If I can get minus 130 on that first five money line, I'll also take that. But that's a that's a hope.
Yeah, I think I'm priced out. Like I said, it would only be Mets or pass for me, but you're probably not going to have Diaz and then a lot of these guys are two of the last three um or works yesterday. So, it's just not a situation that I really like in that Mets bullpen. But that that kid has been really really good. Um, his pitch count has been pretty much pretty consistent as well, so I'm not really worried about him pitching eight innings um against Philadelphia. And I will say that I I know that I give uh Carrie Carpenter some crap on this show, but him be I know that he pinch hit today or what have you um and he didn't come through at the time, but I do think that him being in the lineup tomorrow does give the Tigers a little bit more of an edge. But I do think that with um with um the kid on the mound with McLean, I think that the Mets have a pretty big starting pitching advantage. So, and their bats have been red hot. So, it would only be the Mets for me, but I just think I'm priced out. But we'll see.
Next game on the board, Dodgers on the road in Pittsburgh. Clayton Kershaw. Is it Bubba Chandler or is it that Mozinski kid? Yeah, it's Bubba Chandler. He's going to be the primary and then Mozzinski, I think, follows. Um, I think I'm going to be betting the Pirates. Spoon, what say you?
I was kind of looking at an under here. Um, I think Bubba Chandler can pitch well. I don't know what order they put those guys out. Um, I think Bubba Chandler came in in relief last time.
First.
Um, just on that first five. Um, I can't lay this kind of price with the Dodgers right now. It It's way too big of a price. Even if you tried to build a minus one, it'd still be north of 150. And I I can't lay that kind of juice with this offense right now. They haven't really been getting to right-handers and uh Bubba Chandler's really sharp. If we get more than four innings out of him, um I I think this bet's really good. Clayton Kershaw has been pitching really well. I don't expect that to change versus the Pirates. Um he could give up a run or two, but I don't expect a blow up here. This under eight and a half looks enticing to me. I haven't bet it yet.
Uh I I will be betting the Pirates. I see a 156 on the board. Um, it's not for Okay, first of all, I don't really think that the Dodgers are playing that well to start. Um, I like the fact that Pittsburgh, even though they are coming home from a road trip, they were just in Boston, so not really a big travel spot. Obviously, the Dodgers are going to come across all the way across the country, but they had a travel day, which is all good. But this Pittsburgh team has been really, really good at home. They're only 30 39 and 30, but compared to 22 and 47 on the road, they're a significantly better home team. And Bubba Chandler obviously a star supposed to be paired with Ski, I don't think anybody worries about him and the talent that he has that. But Mosinski has been pitching pretty damn well, pretty damn good himself. He had one blow up against um Philadelphia on the road, but besides that, I mean, a lot of four innings of one or two-run baseball. Uh, and and like Spoon said, this Dodgers offense hasn't been like anything to ride home about, especially on the road over the last 30 days. They're like middle of the pack in Major League Baseball. So, and for whatever reason, it just seems like this Pittsburgh team has just played this Dodgers team close over the last couple years. Um, so, at 156, I think I'm going to take a shot with the home team um with the kid on the mound. So, yeah.
Anywhos, next game on the board, another game where I think I'm priced out. Um, Toronto on the road in Cincinnati. Uh, what killed Spoon made my bet. I had the over eight. So, that ninth inning really made my day. Um, but obviously it hurt you. I thought for sure when Bobette hit that home run and then Vario hit one right after. I was like, there that one is. But that was crazy. But anyway, Toronto on the road in Cincinnati. Jose Berrios, Nick Leolo. Uh, what are your thoughts here? I I don't know if I can lay juice with Cincinnati, but I and their bullpen, but I really think they win the game.
I'm leaning the other way. I want to take uh Toronto plus 100. Um, seems like a good price to get with the team that I still view as the better team.
Agree.
Ledo has looked pretty good in his home starts recently. um that could come into factor here, but I think this Blue Jays lineup is just getting to left-handers enough to be able to get to Looo. Um, it looks like Boyd pitched pretty well against them, only gave up two hits to get those two two earned runs off him in seven. And uh you also had Blake Snell pitch really well and Kershaw, but some of the lower level lefties they've gotten to. Uh, no, Cameron was pitching really well at the time when they scored runs off him. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays open up a crooked three- four run inning off Lido tomorrow. And Barios has pitched better on the road this season than he has at home. Um, I think he matches up pretty well with this Red's team that's full of righties. He has worse splits versus lefties. You only see a couple there. Um, blue I know the Blue Jays blew it today, so nobody really wants to go back there, but I think I'm going to have the Blue Jays plus 100 on my card tomorrow.
It would be Cincinnati or pass for me. Um, the Okay, both of these bullpens are in like a little bit of a situation. Um, I think that Cincinnati's is a little bit worse, which I know that kind of sounds dumb, but it depends on what you think of Trevor Hoffman, who hasn't been sharp for a while now. I know that he's coming off um a game where he didn't give blow it, so I guess that's a positive. Uh, but you're going to have Yario Rodriguez on three of the last four days. is you're going to have that Nance Kid on three of the last four days and then you're going to have that uh Brendan Little three of the last four days as well. That's some of your top arms in the bullpen. So, you'll have Sir Anthony Dominguez at the very end of the game, but if unless Jos Barios goes out there and pitches well, and I know that the Cincinnati offense isn't anything to ride home about, but it's not like Berios is going super deep into game. So, if he gets any some any sort of trouble, he's probably going to get an early hook here. Um, the issue is is Cincinnati's bullpen is equally in trouble if not worse. You're not going to have Pagan. Uh he's went I think back to back days in three of the last four. You're not going to have Cantonian. Um, you have Barlo who worked today. He's going to be two of the last three as well. So that's your top three arms in the Cincinnati bullpen as well. So you might see multiple innings out of Nick Martinez which could help a little bit. So that's kind of what I was banking on when I was looking at this game. It would only be Cincinnati for me. I think they're a short favorite for a reason, but uh I don't know if I can actually do it.
Next game on the board, Miami on the road in Washington. Adam Mazer on the mound for Miami. Cade Cavali. Sauces young goat on the mound for Washington. Uh, does Cavali get his money back, get his lick back from getting blown up his last time out? Does he pitch well here today?
I believe he does. Um, I was looking at a few different ways to play this. I was looking at the full game under nine. Um, I'm just not in love with either of these bullpens. And, uh, when these guys are getting touched, it's the later in they pitch. So, I'm going to take a first three under three minus 127. Uh, sorry I didn't text you about that sauce. That's uh, you can get it on DK right now. Um, it just seems like both of these pitchers have pretty good stuff. Um, neither of these lineups are really destroying the other side of the plate. Miami's 23rd versus right-handed pitching in the last few weeks. Kate Gavali has had one bad start in his four major league starts here now. I don't think this Miami lineup is on the same level as New York or even close. And just on the other side, Washington's young bats. Um, I think Maser's slider is really pretty nasty. I think they'll have a hard time hitting it. He throws that a ton. Um, I think we can get three innings of good baseball out of these guys and catch this.
Uh, someone asked in the comment Trevor's really gone. Yeah, wasn't joking. He Megan made him join the Peace Corps. So, he's he's uh he's off to to to the core to lend a helping hand.
There's nothing you can do about it, guys. You just have to wish him wish him well. So, anywhos um I really don't have an opinion on this one. I I really wanted to play a Miami team total over, but it was four and a half and plus money. So, um you can just put Miami up in general for me. Sauce, I I don't trust Mazzour to save my life to save my life. So, uh but I do think I I agree that Kavali has one really bad start, but he has a couple that he's I mean, I don't really know if I trust him and he has given up runs in three of his four starts. So, um, Miami has been feisty and they've been scoring runs at a very high rate besides today. Um, so I I don't know. It would only be over a pass for me or Miami, but I I'm not it's a pure pass for the game.
Next game on the board, Cleveland on the road in Boston. Slade Sakone Garrett Crochet. Kind of want to bet Cleveland. No. Chapman. What about you, Spoon?
I don't hate that Cleveland bet. Um,
It's hard to go against Crochet. Um, especially, I mean, a lefty versus Cleveland this season, it's been a good recipe for that pitcher to have a good start, but Crochet hasn't looked super sharp his last four starts out there, giving up seven hits, five hits, six hits, and three of those games. Um, Cleveland's a pretty contact heavy team. I think they can turn a couple of those uh hits into runs. I like Slate Sakone. Um, I was more leaning towards the under in this game. I got burned on it pretty early in this game today. Probably keep me off it. But, uh, I think Slate Sakone can also pitch well and just it's too hard for me to bet on these Cleveland uh, bats to really show up against a lefty. They got four off Eduardo Rodriguez last time out. They also got five off Maniah um, on the 4th of August, four off Peterson, but outside of that, everybody else is looking pretty sharp. I I can't get there with Cleveland, so put me up for an under.
Um, so my thoughts on this is I think I'm just going to end up playing Cleveland. Put Cleveland up for me. Sauce. Cleveland and Pittsburgh. And I think that one of the two way you said under I thought you said Cleveland's going to turn it into runs.
Can turn a couple hits into runs.
Oh, okay. Okay.
I I don't think he's going to get destroyed out there. Um
Oh, no, no, no. You didn't have to explain it. I was just making sure I heard the pick correctly.
Um, so for me, um, I think this is a really good price you're getting with Cleveland. Uh, one of the things that has made Boston so good is how well Chapman has been and now his working on back-to-back nights. So, you're not going to get him. So, I just think that there that bullpin is significantly worse when he's not available in the game. Um, I know that Whitlock has been pretty damn good for them as well, but I don't think that he's anything like them. So, uh, you're also, they also saw Wisert as well. Uh, so it's really going to be Wilson, Sllayton, and Whitlock, which doesn't really scare me as much. And this Cleveland team, I I mean, again, I they're starting to play. They've been kind of like a roller coaster team. They were playing really well, then they lost a whole bunch of games with the Class A [ __ ] And now over the last week and a half or so, they got a couple wins off of Tampa Bay. They got a couple wins off of Seattle. They looked somewhat decent today. Their bullpen and whatever kind of gave it up, but I I really think that Sakone can pitch well here. I mean, he's pretty much going six innings in most of these starts and giving up two or three runs. Uh Tampa Bay, Texas, Atlanta destroyed him. Uh the White Sox was a bad start, but the Mets, Boston, I'm sorry, Colorado, Baltimore. And honestly, if this Boston team versus right-handed pitching, I mean, they got on the 25th, they got four runs off of Sagano in six innings. They got some runs off of Paul Blackburn. The only only thing that's really impressive with them is they got to Will Warren on the 23rd. But Mitch Keller, Johan ADO, Mike Burroughs, Paul Skins, Kyle Bradish, all pitched well against them. Luis Heel, Sagano on the 19th of last month. So I I'm not really just convinced that this Boston team's just going to destroy Sakone. And he has a full bullpen behind him regardless of what you think of them. He does have a full rested bullpen behind him. And the last thing I'm going to say is that Cleveland versus lefty starters. I mean, it's not terrible terrible. Like he just went through it really quickly. But four off of Rodriguez. Wentz pitched well but four off of David Peterson in Maniah. Five off of Maniah. Three off of I'm sorry two off of Kyle Freeland in two innings. Noah Cameron pitched well but they got three off of Crit Bubic. six off of JP Sears, five off of Jeffrey Springs. So, I think it's more than capable that Cleveland can score a couple runs and you're getting them at like plus 210 or something or better. So, uh, yeah, I'll be betting Cleveland. I'll also be betting Pittsburgh. So, anyway, next game on the board.
The comments are saying, "So, TV Jones no longer joined the Peace Corp. Now he was never real. He was CGI." [Laughter]
Uh, no. I'm pretty sure TV Jones is real. He's not CGI. He's not CGI. And it was so funny because of all the memes and stuff like, "Oh, you guys think I'm funny." Like, it's on the background of my phone. Anyway, next game on the board.
Seattle on the road in Tampa Bay. Brian Woo, Drew Raspersonson on the mound for those teams. Um, I really want to play Seattle Spoon. I think this the number kind of scares me, but you have Woo with a bullpen behind him. Uh, what about you?
Yeah, I already took the uh minus 110 on Seattle. I think it's really easy to get to Tampa Bay here. They just scored a bunch of runs. Um, and they have a really good pitcher on the mound. Why wouldn't they come out and score a bunch more runs tomorrow? Um, Seattle's offense didn't put anything up till the final inning of the game, I believe. And Drew Rasmmanson, uh, his last nine starts hasn't given up more than two earned runs in a single one. Um, at some point, we do believe some of his innings are going to get pushed back. Um, they're still sort of in the hunt for the wild card there, so that probably doesn't happen till he's until they're completely out, but that's always built into it. Um, but Brian Woo on the other side, his last start versus the Padres's, only went five and two/3s. It's notable because that's the first time he's done that all season. He's pitched into the sixth inning or more in every single game. I think he uh wants to write that um come out, have a really good start tomorrow. He just watched his team get absolutely mollywpped. I I think Brian Woo comes out, pitches a really good game. He saw this Tampa Bay team on the 10th of August pitched six innings, gave up three earned runs. They were able to get seven hits off him. And uh Rasmmanson pitched even better against Seattle. He went six innings pitched, zero on runs, just four hits. Um I think that zigzag effect kind of applies tomorrow. I think Seattle's bats show up more than uh what the Rays do. I also like the Rays bullpen situation a little bit better than Tampa Bay's. Um I think this is a fair price. Probably minus 120 Seattle here even on the road. So I I had to bet it at minus 110.
Uh yeah, I just joined you. Uh Seattle money line. I was already looking at it. Um I I the Rays, like you said, I think a lot of people are going to be get to the easy to get to the Rays because they've been smashing right-handed pitching. They've been good at home, yada yada yada. But at the same time, let's just pump the brakes a little bit because Brian Woo is the upper echelon of major league starters. We can just we can all agree on that I think and Bradley Lord, Jake Irvin, Slade Sakonei, Tanner Bbeby, Miles Michaels, Sunny Gray uh are not just plain and simple. So the step up in competition for what the Rays are going to see as far as a right-handed starter is pretty huge in my opinion. Not to mention the fact that he has a full Brian Woo has a full rested bullpen behind him. And the Seattle numbers versus right-handed pitching is kind of all over the place. But for me, I I like them versus right-handed pitching. And the fact that they've gotten to Tanner Bbeby, Gavin Williams is a stud. It is what it is. They didn't get to him, but Darish Cece, all these decent arms, I put Rasputin in that category of Darvish CE and Bby. Maybe not Bbeby. He's kind of lower level, but those other guys. So, I'm not really worried about the Seattle bats, especially getting a full nine at bats. So, yeah, I'm I'm on Seattle with Spoon as well.
Next game on the board, Angels on the road in Kansas City. I don't think we have a line on this one. I have no idea anyway. So, Spoon, anything really quickly?
Um, no. I was trying to see if I see anything for pitchers. I see Circa has a line open minus 155 Kansas City plus 135 uh LA Angels. It looks like Lorenzan is going for Kansas City. So, uh
I don't know. This is not a game I uh took very long with.
Yeah.
I like they both of these lineups at this point. An over wouldn't scare me. It's at nine, but
Yeah, no chance.
We can just move along.
No chance. I bet a nine with the Royals. No chance.
Um next game on the board, Atlanta on the road in Chicago. Joey Wentz showed Imanaga. I mean, there's no chance in hell I can lay 180 with the Cubs. Uh, Spoon, the Cubs had a nice walk-off tonight. That probably got you excited. Uh, do you think they win again tomorrow?
Um, it's questionable. Uh, I think this is too big of a price delay with them. Um, agree.
I think this is probably 15 20 cents above where this line should fairly sit. Atlanta's not a bad team at this point, but Joey Wentz versus Shoda Imanaga is a pretty big gap in pitching disparity. Uh Sha's gone out there the majority of this season. Pitched really well. Winds blowing in a little bit in Wrigley. That always favors Shota, a really big flyball pitcher. Um the Cubs bats did show up today. It took him a little bit, but I think they can probably get runs off Wentz. I was looking at the first five minus a half at minus 130. Um, I don't really want to get the Cubs bullpen involved with my money at this point. And, uh, I think Shota can go out there and pitch well. After that, I mean, at this price, you'd probably be Atlanta or pass, but Cubs first five is the only thing I'm close to betting.
Yeah. Um, it would only be Atlanta for me. Um, I don't get there. I can't I don't think I can get there because their bullpen isn't in a great situation. um they'll have a Glacius um in Kinley which are their top two but everybody else is like two of the last three days and I just I don't really like that coming off of an extra inning game and I don't really know what I can really get out of uh Mr. Wentz but I will say I mean he hasn't been absolutely terrible and I do think that the Cubs have been pretty damn bad versus left-handed pitching. They randomly showed up against Andrew Rabbit and then they got some runs off of Carson Wiz and hunt that kid in San Francisco. But keep in mind, they let Tyler Anderson score go five innings and only score two runs against him. So, it's not like this Cubs offense is anything special in any way uh versus left-handed pitching. And as far as the Cubs go, I mean, I I expect Imanaga to pitch well. It's not like the Braves have great numbers versus left-handed pitching or anything like that. But what I will say is that they've also seen some really good ones over the last week and a half or so with Lazardo, Chris Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, David Peterson. Um, hell, Martin Perez is actually pitching well right now. I don't know if you can actually put that name on the list of guys to be worried about, but he is pitching well over his last four or five starts. So, whatever that means. Um, but regardless, I I do think that Atlanta can probably get a couple runs off of Shota. So, I can't get there because of the bullpen, but it would only be Atlanta for me.
Next game on the board is White Sox on the road in Minnesota. Davis Martin versus the law firm in SWR. I guess over a pass. I don't know about this one, Spoon. This one, the fact feel like you could just flip a coin. But what are your thoughts?
Yeah, this feels like one of those 1800 gambler games. Um, I agree with that over though, like right-handed pitchers versus the Twins, every single one of them is giving up more than two or three runs. Um, and they're getting runs off good guys like Paveta, Sherzer.
Um, Chris Paddock gave up an absolutely terrible game, but Seali was pitching well when he ran into them and got four earned runs off them. They just saw Davis Martin on the 23rd.
He pitched into the fifth inning, gave up six base runners and two earned runs. I think they can do a little bit better than that this time around. Um, not a big Simeon Woods Richardson fan. Um, this is just his second start uh, coming back since being sent down to the Miners. I don't think he's a guy I want to trust. I could see the White Sox getting to them. They've been getting runs off righties two, Lorenzan four, Taj Bradley seven, Mcabable six. uh not necessarily the who's who's of pitchers, but I put Simeon's Woods Richardson in that class of kind of bad pitchers in MLB right now. So, I think this is an over pass. I'm probably not going to bet it.
Yeah, 100% agree. I will just say that the White Sox have a are able to spring up at times, whether it be left or right-handed pitching, but even on the days that they don't, their bullpen can completely give it up. But it seems like if they don't score seven or eight runs, the other team scores 10 and they lose. Uh, and that's been going back for a while. And the same thing goes for Minnesota. I mean, neither one of these bullp neither one of these teams have a an average bullpen at minimum. They're like some of the bottom third bullpens or two of the bottom third bullpens in Major League Baseball, excuse me. Um, and Minnesota's been scoring some runs lately, even with nobody in that lineup that you really know. So, um, yeah, I mean, they have a couple guys, but you know what I'm talking about. So, it would only be over. I think there's a little bit of rain there, but I think if they get it in, it's going to be like 75 with the wind blowing out. So, take that for what you like.
Next game on the board, ace came through for both of us today. Uh, easy money winner. Sunny Grace sucks. Uh, today we have Luis Severino on the mound versus Miles Michael. Uh, don't really understand why we're getting the A's at another really good price. Do you? I mean, Severino is a huge question mark, I guess, but we'll see. That's why I haven't played this yet. I was going to ask your expectations.
Um, I believe it was an oblique injury that's kept him out the last few weeks. He hasn't made a rehab start in the minors or anything.
I mean, it's I would assume that he's fine. I mean, he has been pitching in Major League Baseball for a while. He had a simulated game a few days ago or something like that. So, he obviously feels fine and he's good to go. So, I would assume he's fine. Um, that being said, it's not like him and the organization have like a great relationship, so maybe they don't really care. Maybe he doesn't care. Who knows? I mean, that's what sucks. But, I mean, he really only had one stretch where he was pitching terrible. And then even before he was hurt, he was pitching just fine. It's not like he was getting shelled in any way, shape, or form. So, um, it was like his essentially six innings of two-run baseball on average. So, and this Cardinals offense has done what to right-handed starters. I mean, I don't know, man. This price seems really, really cheap for the A's for me. The first five is not that much more expensive. You can get plus money on the uh full game. How I end up on one of these? I want to do a little more research into Severino. I didn't see much on line about anything for his rehab there, so put me up for athletics at this price.
Um I I would have this the Athletics are the better team right now. Um I don't think we should be able to get plus money with them. So just on price alone give me athletics.
Yeah, I I agree. I don't think that you can count on Seed on going super deep in this game, but at the same time I don't think it really matters the way that the Cardinals offensively are.
Someone in the comments asked, um am I dropping a video for Thursday Night Football? Yeah, of course. Um, so we'll probably talk about it on tomorrow's show, but I'll drop like the full video on Wednesday night. The full like analysis video I usually do the day before, but we'll probably talk about it on the show earlier in the week. But as far as like the full breakdown, it'll be usually like 24 hours before.
Yankees on the road in Houston, Max Freed, Framber Valdez, Spoon. This is a really really cheap price for the Yankees and Max Freed. Am I wrong? With a full rested bullpin behind him.
It is. And I think that's cuz Max Freed's been really terrible on the road recently. Uh St. Louis, his last road game gave up seven earned runs in just five innings. Texas before that. Five innings pitched, four earned runs. Uh Toronto got four in him in five innings. So every time he hits the road, he gives up at least three or four runs. And Framber, I mean, this is a guy that's always pitched really, really well at home. He just saw this Yankees team in Yankee Stadium, got touched up, uh, didn't make it out of the sixth inning, gave up 12 base runners, four ended runs,
And, uh, kind of looking at his historical numbers versus this Yankees team. Uh, he always pitches poorly. Um, walks a bunch of guys, which is kind of strange to see for Framber because he doesn't normally do that. um price alone with Framber on the mound, I really want to bet Houston Astros, but with the way the Yankees bullpin is, they have so many good arms back there. If uh Freed finds a way to pitch a decent game and the Yankees do what they do against Valdez, it's hard to picture a way where they win. Maybe it's a little telling that you can get plus money with the Astros at home with Framber on the mound. I uh you can put me up for Astros. I just I'm too worried about the Yankees having multiple ways to win this game, so I probably won't bet it.
Uh you can put me down for the Yankees emphatically. Uh I love the Yankees tomorrow. You touched on it. Fram doesn't have great history versus this Yankees team at all. For one, for two, this Yankees offense has been absolutely demolishing everybody they've seen. I get that they've played Chicago and Washington lately, but even prior to that against Miami and St. Louis or whatever it was. They were they've been absolutely smashing the ball. So, I have no reason to believe that they come into the small park in Minuteade or Daikon or whatever the hell they call it now and they don't have they don't feast on Framber Valdez. Framber really hasn't looked like Framber for a while now. Uh don't let one home start versus the Colorado Rockies or a home start versus the Washington Nationals fool you. This pains me to say, but it's not the same Framber that we know and love. On top of the fact that you mentioned it as well, I think that we're getting a really, really good price with Max Freed, who I think is kind of founded over the last couple starts. Baseball is kind of a mental game and I think a huge good start against a rival like the Red Sox and then following up with seven innings against a really piss poor Washington team. I get that. But mentally, he's got to be feeling really good about himself. He can write a lot of wrongs for this season with a good pitching performance tomorrow. He has a full bullpin behind him. I think we have a starting pitching advantage. Honestly, I do. Uh I think we have a bullpen advantage and I think we have a lineup advantage. I don't think there's any reason not to bet the New York Yankees tomorrow. Uh I love the Yankees. Shout out S Dot. I'm with you, brother.
That's a bad pick. Astros.
No.
Next game on the board, San Francisco on the road in Colorado. My only loss today. I played the over. I feel like there was 50 chances. Just couldn't get there. Logan Webb on the mound for the Giants. Kyle Freely. It should be the Giants minus four and a half. I mean, Jesus Christ, this Rocky's team is just that bad. What are your thoughts, Spoon?
Seems like Logan WG has pitched pretty well throughout his career at Kors. Um, seems like he sort of alternates between four and one or zero earned run starts, and he's off a four earned run start. Kind of expect him to go out there and pitch pretty well versus the Rockies this time around. Um he's a really good pitcher. This is a bad lineup. It's not really hard to paint that picture. Um Kyle Freeland, he pops up at home from time to time. And uh I think he can pitch well versus this Giants lineup. They've been getting to lefties recently a little bit more than they have on the full season, but I don't know what to really make of that. Um seemed like it was just one series versus the Cubs where they got Imanaga and Boyd on a couple weird days at Oracle. It seemed like there was a lot of home runs going out at that park in ways that you don't normally see it. Um, besides them, the only other lefty they've touched was Nester Cortez, and that was the second time around. He pitched well the first time. I uh I like the under here. I see a bunch of 10 and a halfs juice to the over um on Offshores. I think we see an 11 at some point in this game. And uh I I want to take that under 11. You can't get it yet. It's something I expect by tomorrow. I think too many people are going to look at Korsfield and just take the over in a 10 and a half game.
Uh yeah. Um it is definitely uh decent weather tomorrow in Kors, but I will say it's 80 degrees, but it's like wind blowing in like double digits. So uh not the best weather as far as condition is concerned. Um it would be Giants minus one and a half or pass. I'm not not going to bet it. But uh Logan Webb has like he said a decent history at Korsfield and a lot of these guys on this team have really haven't seen him. Orlando Arcia and Mickey Moniac and Tovar Tovar has decent numbers but besides that all these guys hasn't hasn't seen Logan Webb. Uh and this Giants offense has turned a cover turned a corner over the last I don't know 10 days or whatever. I don't think it really continues for forever but until we see it slow down uh I'm not trying to find a way to get in front of it. So it'd be Giants minus one and a half for pass.
Next game on the board, Baltimore on the road in San Diego. Tyler Wells poo Darvish on the mound. Oh, heavy price to pay with the Padres's spoon. Can you uh can you get to the Baltimore Orioles tomorrow?
That's an expensive poo right there.
That's ex Yeah, I 100,000% agree. Uh, I don't care what you think of Udarvish. I mean, let's look at his home starts. He went seven innings pitch versus the New York Mets. Just gave up two hits, no walks, um, zero earned runs. His next home start was versus the Dodgers. Just one hit, one walk, one earned run. Uh, six innings pitched. He's been on the road for a long time. Uh, and he came back late in the season rehab. So, it looks like he's pitching really well every time he goes home. I think he can pitch well versus this Orioles lineup tomorrow. Tyler Wells, 31, 32 year old. Um, barely had a cup of coffee in the major leagues at this point. He's not pitching that well in AAA at this point. I I think the Padres's get to him. Uh, Padres's minus one minus 120 for me.
Uh, I Yeah, I agree. It would only be the Padres's for me. I I just don't know if I can actually lay it with them. But I don't Baltimore really hasn't seen any good right-handed starters and when they have, they've been completely blanked. So, they got a couple runs off of guys like Spencer Arrigetti, Christian Javier, Lance McCullers's, uh Dick Fitz, but besides that, um it really hasn't been pretty. And all those guys are coming back from injury or was their second start or whatever. So, uh, it would only be the poss for me. If it gets down, if people kind of bet up Baltimore, if it gets down into the 165s, I might play it, but not in the 170s or 75s.
Uh, the last game has no odds. You guys want to go right to college football.
Yeah, just go right to college football cuz I got nothing on that one.
All right. Uh, make sure you uh give these guys a follow. Make sure you give Spoon a follow on Twitter. uh he's stepping up to uh last year Toast had to do the baseball by himself and his really didn't didn't hit the same. So make sure you guys give Spoon a follow. Appreciate him stepping up here.
Yeah, let's talk college football.
Have a good night, guys.
All right, it is Monday and we're talking week two. Some uh some look ahead stuff for this Saturday's games. We got Moneyline Mack on and I was listening to uh the the the week one recap there on the college experience. you you should just change the title of the of of that show to the Nico hate show. Uh Matt Matt goes on yet another hateful rampage about Nico. Uh the story of the headline of that game, by the way, was Utah's offensive line made UCLA's defense look like an FCS team. Now, whether or not you want to say UCLA's defense is practical joke bad, their defensive front, or Utah's offensive line is that good, maybe it's a combination of both, but I don't feel the headline of that game was Nico's terrible. But hey, you you take it and do whatever you want with it.
Is Nico was terrible. Nico was terrible.
22 for 130 yards good. I don't know.
The stat line doesn't tell the story, man. He was making some plays and it it it wasn't the best showing for UCLA.
Um.
Oh, that game was over in the blink of an eye. It was crazy. I was like, "Wow, 200 already."
Immediately.
Um and it man, Dan Pier and Beck, that's as good as ever. My My take on that was like Utah's going to have to prove it to me offensively. I don't think they just hit the ground running. They did exactly that. They hit the ground and looked like they were in midse like the best offense in the country. Seriously, that that offense looks so fluent. And Dan Pier, he would drop back, have 5 seconds standing in the pocket, and then run to the sideline. Like, dude, you how does he have both? You either have all day to the throw, but all day to throw, but you're contained. And then he had the sideline after he stood. It was just crazy the domination from that game. Um, but yeah, we got seven games queued up. So, let's go ahead and get into it. And I've got bets on a few of these. This is not one of them. We're starting off with Illinois Duke. Um, so Mac, you texted me this list. Great choices, by the way. I I like all seven of the games you picked.
Uh Illinois Duke, what do you what do you like here?
Uh I like the Dookies. I I like the home dog here. Uh I I thought Darren Mensah, it took a minute. It took a half to get going in that Elon game. I thought they were super vanilla with the playbook knowing that Illinois um was on deck. I I've been wanting to fade Illinois um coming into this year just because of how crazy their season was last year with the six fourth quarter come from behind wins. They were outgained on the on the year. Uh I like Altmire. I like a lot of their pieces, but I think this Duke offense is going to be able to move the ball on Illinois with Menson company. And I think that this game comes right down to the wire. I'm getting I'm getting a field goal. Uh I'll take the home dog with the dookies and to pull the upset. And I like to fade teams that aren't used to being the hunted here. Uh this is Illinois. I mean, when was the last time Illinois was in the top 15 in college football? Now they're hitting the road with that big target on their back, that number next to their name. I'll take the dookies in uh Mena here at home.
So unfortunately, I like Illinois. I'm one of I'm like part of the Illinois hype. I like it. Um but unfortunately, I I kind of agree with you. I'm going to put Duke up for You know what? I'm going to put under. It'll be Duke or under. I It's not I think Illinois just based on hey team A on the road against team B. Who's better? What should the number be? I think it should be about four. So you would think, oh, you'll lean towards Illinois. But I don't like this matchup at all. I mean, what's the strength for this Illinois team, the offensive line, right? Brett Brema brings back four starters. Well, actually like four and a half starters. He's got a history of sending talent to the NFL from the offensive line. There should be a very, very strong offensive line here for Illinois. But on the road, Wallace Wade here against a Duke defensive line that's tough. I mean, those two defensive tackles in the middle, Aaron Hall and Josiah Green, you're not going to go in there and bully them around. And I I think that's how Illinois
Illinois is going to find some success this year is is bullying the opponent's defensive front. I don't see them doing that here against this Duke defensive front. I think we were expecting Duke's defense to fall off after the Mike Elco exit. That didn't happen at all. This defense is tough. And like I said, that defensive line is tough, and I just don't like this matchup for Illinois.
I will say personally, I'm not loving the matchup for Duke on the other side, though. This Illinois secondary should be very strong. This should be a tough defense to throw the ball on. And in terms of, brace yourself, Scoop, you're going to hate this, but in terms of a pure thrower, just a pure thrower, I don't know how much of an upgrade Mensah is from Murphy. Just a pure thrower of the football, that's not what Mensah showed us last year at Tulane. I mean, some of their big wins, he had like 13 pass attempts. He had a superstar running back behind him in Tyjae Spears. He had an elite Tulane defense. As far as a pure thrower of the football, I don't know if Mensah is just like a big step above Malik Murphy. If you want to move the ball in this Illinois defense, in my opinion, you have to run the football. And this Duke team is different than last year's Duke offense. Definitely. The offensive line's better. I get it. But last year, we are talking about a bottom 25 rushing attack here at Duke. So, can Duke run the ball? They ran the ball over Elon. I don't know if I trust Duke's offense. I don't know if I trust Duke to have a consistent rushing attack. It would be Duke or the under. I'll put both up on the screen for me. As of right now, I do not have a bet on the game, though.
Scoop: Yeah. So, uh, told you guys before I'm going off the rip since I lost two hours of, uh, you know, stuff that I previewed. So, that's that's that's great. Literally five minutes before we started recording. So, I'm pretty flustered and pissed off right now. Um, yeah, I like Illinois here. Um, Mensah didn't look great. I know whatsoever in that first half against Elon. It was rough, but and I was like, maybe Kyle's right. Maybe Mensah is not the thing. Maybe he's not the $8 million man. Um Duke did what they could in the second half there. I mean, what they should. Uh but I like Altmire here. He's a, you know, I think he's might be a better quarterback. Three years experience. Darian Mensah, you know, obviously has Tulane experience, but his first time coming over here. I like Illinois's offense and I love Illinois's defense. I think their secondary is going to give Mensah problems. Obviously, they returned all their starters. And even though Duke has a ground game, I mean, Illinois's defense, I know they lost a bunch on the line. I mean, they lost Briggs and Edwards, but I like Jalen Daniels there. I like James Thompson transferring from Wisconsin. Um he didn't play last year, but I think he did awesome the first game. So, I mean, I like Illinois here. I'm not a big fan of Duke. When I saw first saw the line too, I was like, "Ah, Illinois, you know, this is an easy spot for them for, you know, only giving three to Duke, but I I don't really trust it either. Um, I like I feel like Duke's going to compete for sure. I feel like this is going to come down to the wire, but I think Illinois has a better offense and a better defense than Duke. I just don't really trust them to to close it out here.
I will say what we saw a lot of this in week one, these quarterbacks struggling in these harsh road environments. Altmire is no stranger to that. I mean, this dude's been everywhere. He's played at Penn State, at Oregon, at Minnesota. I think he started the game at Kinnick, too. So, Altmire is no stranger to a real tough environment. So, I'll give you that if you're on the Illinois side. It'll be under Duke for me. Let's move on.
Next up on the list is Iowa State, Iowa. You're not about to do this, are you? For those who haven't been following Mac after singing the praises of Matt Campbell in the College Football Experience Iowa State preview, gave him a glowing 90-second hype speech there. I literally recorded it and sent it to my friends like told you guys. Look, he's hyping Matt Campbell up. Told you guys. Then he fades Matt Campbell twice in a row.
Thoughts?
Three times. Three times. This is a road team series. The road team has won four straight in this matchup. Kirk Ferentz has had Matt Campbell's number. I do see a three and a half out there. I think that is a big hook in this game. Remember this game last year, Iowa dominated the game until the third quarter when Iowa State made some adjustments and they nailed like a 57-yard field goal at the horn. This matchup, I think this is a one-possession game. Crazy game back and forth. I like Iowa's offensive upside more this year than previous years with Granowski coming over from South Dakota State. I know what I'm getting with the Iowa defense every single year. I think this game comes right down to the wire. It's another 17-16, 19-17, 20-19 that kind of range game. I think Iowa State actually probably wins. But you're giving me three, three and a half. I'll take the Hawkeyes in the points here in what's always a crazy game with two teams that are basically the same defense, disciplined, well-coached, and it's going to be a field possession game. So, I like the points and the under.
Well, in that case, we're not that far off then. So, I grabbed Iowa State moneyline at open. It was minus 126. It's now like minus 150. So, I wouldn't play it now. And as I'm a Matt Campbell guy through and through, I won't be laying three. Are you kidding me? Three and a half in this game. I actually wouldn't even be opposed to keep holding on to my Iowa State moneyline and taking an Iowa plus three and a half if I'm being honest. But I'll put Iowa State moneyline on the screen because that's actually the bet I have, but the number I got was minus 126. I can't disagree with an under. How many overs have we even seen in this series? Probably not many. I feel like it's always low scoring, but I don't know. I don't have the stats in front of me.
Last year was the first one it went over in forever, and it was because Iowa State hit the 57-yard field goal and they won 20 to 19. That was the over.
2019 went over. That would have stayed under this total too.
Yeah, but in terms of why I picked Iowa State to win, I mean, I was getting the home team at minus 126 with the better quarterback, and I had Iowa State ranked number seven preseason. I had them as one of the strongest teams in the country, and that hasn't changed. I don't think we've seen anything to change an opinion on that. I truly think this is a top 10 team, and I've said it dozens of times. I think Matt Campbell, you can make an argument he's the best coach in the country. So, I'm getting the better team at a good number at a home moneyline, but if there's three and a halfs, and I see one right now on ESPN Bet, it's hard for me to argue with an Iowa plus three and a half in this game because like Max said, this had like 19-17, 20-19, that is Iowa State, Iowa all the way.
Scoop: Yeah, I if I was taking a side, I would take Iowa State. There's just no way I trust, you know, trust Granowski and Hank Brown to a lower extent if he's playing. But until Iowa shows they can actually throw a football, there's no way I'm taking Iowa on offense to beat Iowa State. I do believe Iowa got worse defensively, though. There's no way Kirk Ferentz is going to let this defense slip up in any way. So, it's not like they're going to slip up that much. I mean, they've had the same coordinator, Phil Parker. Kirk Ferentz, they're going to, you know, they're going to their defense is going to be three and three no matter what. Um, I mean, if you're going to bet this as a side, I mean, five straightaway teams won on all the away games won the last five years. So, um, if you're going on a trend, that would be a good way to go with Iowa. But there's no way I could take Iowa. I just don't trust Iowa's offense. I thought Iowa's offense was going to be great. I know it's been one game, but I mean,
They didn't show you anything in that game, though. Saw against Albany. They couldn't even do anything in the first half.
They didn't even I don't even think they tried to do it. I think they purposely held everything back on that. They just handed the ball. They don't want to show they might have a passing attack. Actually, they're not trying to show any of that before this game.
It's just I I just trust Iowa State so much more than Iowa. But like you guys said, I mean, in this matchup, it's going to be a three-point game no matter what. And I feel like it's going to go under again. I feel it's just always just a brutal game. Even though like even if Iowa State has like a ton of offense, it's I feel like if when they go into these games, they look like dog [ __ ]. So, it's not like, you know, the offense is just not going to be there. So, I feel like it's going to go under again. I mean, like like Max said, that 20 to 19 game last year, I mean, it should have been under, hit that game-winning field goal. But yeah, I mean, as long as this is over three, there's no way I could take Iowa State either. So, I would go under in this one.
Yeah, like we me and Max both said under. Yeah, can't argue with an under.
Next up, got a good number in this one. I'm on Baylor plus four. Um, I have a feeling we're all going to be in lock step on this one. You're not about to take SMU here, Mac, are you?
No, I'm on Baylor. Um, I I thought that the final score, the Auburn game was a little bit misleading. Um, I thought Baylor moved the ball. They had 500 yards of offense. I thought Robertson looked really good. They just they let Auburn off the hook, I felt like early in the game. They had two big time drives to start the game and only walked away with three points. Got stuffed at the goal line one time. SMU on the other hand, defensively I was not impressed with them on Saturday. They almost gave up 400 yards of offense to Texas A&M Commerce. Now they got to play a Baylor team that I think is explosive. I think SMU lost a lot from that defense last year. I think they're a little bit overrated coming into the year. I love Jennings on the offensive side. I am a little worried about Baylor being able to stop them because we kind of saw Auburn run the ball down their throat, especially with Arnold's legs. But, uh, I like Baylor here. I think that this is another crazy game back and forth. So, I'm going to take the three, um, that it's at now. Um, and I think Baylor's actually gonna go in there and back against the wall, pull off an upset, and get a split here in these first two games.
Uh, agree with every single word. Uh, if this is on a neutral field, do you have Baylor laying a point or two?
I think so. I think they're slightly better than SMU.
Agreed. Um, so like I said, yeah, I'm on Baylor plus four. Still bet it. I would still bet it at plus three. Um, and like Max said, I am a little worried about Baylor's defense. Um, Auburn just held on to the football for long stretches at a time. It's there are a couple differences. SMU's offense is crazy talented and Jennings is the man. Um, SMU's offensive line is not Auburn's offensive line. I've been saying the last couple weeks, Auburn's offensive line might be a serious problem this year. And if they're going to coach like that, if they're going to just let Jackson Arnold kind of be a power rusher like that, they might actually be it might be really difficult to get that Auburn offense off the field with that offensive line. So even though I am not big on the Baylor defense this year, they weren't particularly great last year. Um, I don't think SMU with their offensive line can dominate it quite that much. Because Auburn held on to the ball forever, like I said. And then exactly like Max said, on the defensive side, the strength of this SMU team was the defensive line. They sent four pieces to the NFL. Four. So this defensive line is gutted. Now they're still a very talented team, but they literally lost the entire strength, which is the defensive line. And Baylor, like Max said, that was an SEC defense, and they were not having problems. They made a lot of explosive plays. The final score looked like Auburn kind of beat up on him a little bit, but that's not what happened in that game at all. Um, I have no doubts that Baylor's going to be able to move the ball up and down the field on SMU. Uh, so yeah, I'm on Baylor. I think they have a good chance to win outright.
Scoop: Yeah, I completely agree with you guys. Um, I love Baylor here. I feel like it's a bounceback game for sure. I am not as high on SMU's offense as you are. I think it's going to take, I think it's not going to be as good as the year as last year. I mean, you lose Nay'Quan Wright and LJ Johnson, Bashard Smith, and you replace it with, you know, TJ Harden, McFall, Chris Johnson Jr. I feel like those are all worse running backs. Um, their offense, I mean, they lose a couple pieces on the offensive line. It's still a good offensive line. Uh, but I think Baylor's defensive line is going to be a lot better this game than they were against Auburn. Auburn just looks like a beast, by the way. They're going to be an awesome team all year. Um, but you lose, you know, Roger Daniels too, and K.J. Smith. I feel like, you know, you do good against East Texas A&M, but Baylor's defense isn't isn't going to be as bad as you think they are. And as far as Kyle said, yeah, I mean, I I don't like this SMU defense really at all. I think their front seven's pretty shot. Um, and like Max said, I think they had like 244 yards passing East Texas A&M.
So, I mean, Baylor is going to light them up, I feel, on the offensive side. And I mean, not only that, I mean, they're they're I feel like they can get picked apart on a run, too. I feel like they have one of the worst linebackers in the ACC this year. So, I feel like this is going to be a Baylor game. I fortunately, I feel like all three of us want them on the money line, too. I feel like they could definitely win this game. I just don't like SMU in this position, especially after Baylor. Like, you know, everyone's like, "Oh, they got embarrassed by Auburn." I think they're going to bounce back here and just win the game for sure. Yeah, I'll chill on my plus four, but yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Baylor wins at all.
Um, all right, let's move on to Mississippi-Kentucky. Uh, the Miss looking for some revenge. For those of you that didn't follow last year, Stoops goes into Oxford, pulls off the win 20-17. Vander got him. I know I have personal experience with this. I was on Miss minus 13. I think I was on Miss in this game. Um, they got him. Um, I have I kind of want to go back to Kentucky. I think they can get him twice in a row, personally, but Matt, what do you think?
I we're seeing eye to eye. I love Kentucky here in this home dog spot. Uh, what did we learn in week one? Your first road starts usually don't go as well, whether it was Arch or Simpson at Alabama. Um, I mean, this is Simmons' first road true road start. He's a highly talented young quarterback, but now he's hitting the road in Lexington. And for whatever reason, Miss is really good when they're in the bully role. When they're playing the G5s or the FCS teams, they're great. Lane's great at running it up. But as soon as they start playing a team with a little bit of physicality, it bothers them because of their rhythm on their offense. Stoops has had Lane's number for whatever reason. He's been a heavy underdog in the last three games. They've easily covered in all three. Every game's been a three-point game or one-point game, and then of course he wins outright as a double-digit dog last year in Oxford. I think that Kentucky's able to run the ball. Georgia State did run for almost 200 yards against Miss in that game. I know Miss won by like 70, but I think Kentucky with that rushing attack that they displayed against Toledo. I think they can manage possessions here, control the clock, and I'm with you. I think Kentucky's live here. I'll take the I'm all over the 10 and a half against Simmons in his first road start.
Yeah. Yeah. Um, I I wrote down Kentucky or under. I didn't actually bet it, but yeah, I I don't know how you can lay 10 and a half. This isn't the same Miss team either. This I still can't believe Miss didn't go to the College Football Playoff with that defense last year. That defense was loaded. Um, they lost a lot of pieces. And look, I I don't can't really always judge based on like reading who's going to be replaced, like, oh, this is a former four-star. You know, it's really hard to get a feel for how effective that piece is going to be. But just reading on who the starters were going to be this year, my view of it was Miss is a step down from where they were last year. And Kentucky's kind of getting slept on. Although I got to say, the reason I ended up not betting this or I'm still considering it. The reason is man, Kalzada, dude, you know, really had him in a box.
Run the ball.
Yeah. I don't even trust I don't really trust much about this Kentucky offense. So, look, Austin Simmons on the road here in Lexington. I I He threw a couple picks last week, didn't he? I think he threw a couple picks last week.
Yeah, it's only be Kentucky at home getting this big number. As of right now, I don't have the bet down, though.
Scoop: Yeah. Um, I wrote a bunch and it's lost. But yeah, I I'm taking Kentucky here. Um, I like the home dog, too. Uh, Old Miss, you know, like Max said, had their fun against Georgia State, but Kentucky's defense is not Georgia State. Obviously, I love Kentucky's secondary. I think Simmons is going to struggle here. They're going to I think Kentucky's definitely going to get into the backfield. And on the other hand, what kind of what Max said, Dallas is going to find space here. I mean, Georgia State put up five and a half yards per carry on a clip, 191 yards. Old Miss can be run on, and I feel like that's what Kentucky's going to do most of the game here. Um, I know, you know, Kazada did not look good against Toledo, but I I just feel like Kentucky is I feel like their defense is just going to be so much better than what Old Miss saw the first game that um, and it's first SEC game at home for Kentucky against Old Miss, and you know, they have the pedigree to win beat them like they did last year. So, yeah, I mean, I'm on Kentucky with you guys. I feel like they're going to just ground and pound the ball. And I think Old Miss is going to be run on all year for in the SEC. I feel like their front seven is not good. So, I feel like when it gets to SEC play after this, but I feel like it's just going to be a rough road for Old Miss's defense. So,
Wow. A lot of agreeing here. And honestly, as we flip to the next game, I kind of think we're all going to agree on this one as well. Texas State, UTSA. Got a looking like so far. I got a great number. I'm on the Roadrunners minus three and a half. Got it as soon as it popped open. Um, Texas State did look strong, and I was on Eastern Michigan plus 14 and a half in that one. Uh, but UTSA in the Alamo Dome, second half last year, well, pretty much the whole year. Their offensive numbers in that place, they're 6-6 and 0 in the Alamo Dome last year.
Yeah, their offensive numbers, their average like eight yards a play, 42 points per game. Their offense is like the greatest show on turf in this place. Uh, so yeah, I'm on UTSA. Matt. Uh, yeah, we're seeing eye to eye here. I finally take a favorite. Uh, I guess all of us are finally taking a favorite because we've seen eye to eye. But I I walked away really impressed with UTSA at Texas A&M. They ran for 200 yards against a Mike Elko defense on the road at the 12th man. Um, I thought Robert Henry going for what, a buck 77. I thought McCarney, he's an experienced quarterback. And this is a revenge game, too, because Texas State beat the you know what out of them last year 49-10, and they ran it up, and they were not quiet about it. So, a little bit of I think the Roadrunners here back at home. Got this one circled. Um, love, love taking trailer, especially in that building. He's he's one of the more underrated coaches I think at the G5 level. I'm with you. I love the Roadrunners here. Lay the number. I think they win by double digits. I didn't even re I didn't even know that there was some words exchanged after last year's game either. So, makes me like the bet even more.
It's an underrated rivalry here. They don't like each other.
Is it? That's cool. I like it even more now.
It'll be Chippy on Saturday.
Hopefully Chippy and a seven-point UTSA win or more. Scoop, Roadrunners.
Yeah, I'm on the Roadrunners as well. Um, I love this offense. I mean, they listen, UTSA had 203 yards rushing against A&M, and listen, like we talked about with East Texas A&M, you can't hold a lot of weight when you play a team like that, while Texas State played a terrible Eastern Michigan team with Chris Klieman as their coach. So,
Chill, dude.
I just love he's such garbage. I told you he's garbage. He's miserable. He's not a good defensive coach. His team's awful. He's gonna get fired. Um, yeah. So, Texas State though, their defense is not good. It is broken every year. It is not good this year. It's just it's every year that you look at Texas State, you look at their offense. That's fine. But UTSA's defense didn't actually play that bad either. Um, but UTSA is going to I think is going to score like 35 points this game. I feel like it's hard. It's going to be hard for Texas State to stop anything. Um, as I mean, their offense, I mean, their defensive line, they had so much transfers in. A lot of their talent except for Landry, they lost everyone. They lost all their depth, all their experience. Their linebackers had nobody in there. There was like a bunch of FCS transfers. Their linebackers had no starting experience. And UTSA just put up a ton of points. And then I think, you know, I think you lost your spread last week, right? On that last 14-second class.
Oh my god. Yeah.
Yeah. That's that's rough. But and it wasn't even McCarney. That's even worse. But uh, yeah, so I I feel like, yeah, like you just said, McCarney's going to have a bounceback game here. He's going to have a he's going to be able to pick apart Texas State's defense. I love them at the Alamo Dome. They were six and 0 last year. They put up literally like 150 more yards at home. So, yeah, this is going to be a UTSA spot for me. I feel like they're going to easily win this game.
Yeah. And you know what? Talk some [ __ ] about Chris Klieman. Uh, but Noah Kim was piecing them up last week. So, I agree.
Noah Kim.
Kansas, Missouri. I think we might have a disagreement here, Mac, because I
Border the border war, baby. Well, I heard you mention this. Well, actually, I didn't hear you mention this game, but I heard you make a comment about like Kansas is really good, guys. Like, so I already know what you're about to do.
You know, I'm taking my Big 12 team against the SEC here. Uh, yeah. I mean, I think this line should be closer to a field goal. I think these two teams are evenly matched. Um, I I think Jalen Daniels back under that K.C. offense. Zebroski, I think he's done a great job getting Daniels in space, making throws easier. I I thought last year he just with the he never fit the Grimes offense. So, Lipold as a dog here. Uh, like I said, I think that this is going to be a back and forth game, an old rivalry from the Big 12 days, Big Eight days. Um, I I am interested. I mean, Missouri is a little bit unproven here just because they played a buy game and won by like a 100 against Central Arkansas. Um, they're still trying to work out their quarterback situation. Pribula coming over from Penn State. So, I think this is a war back and forth. You're giving me six points in a rivalry game. Give me Jalen Daniels and company as the dog.
Yeah. So, the guy that Pribula was competing with for the job was seen on crutches. It's Yeah, it's definitely Brady Cook. Yeah. The other guy got injured. His name was Sam Horn. Um, so, yeah, I guess the struggle with this one is trying to figure out what we've seen from Kansas and do we take it seriously? Do we adjust our thoughts on Kansas? And I'm going to move to more towards no. Um, that game against Fresno, I mean, it's Notre Dame's first game there. They completely changed the entire identity of Fresno. I don't think there's ever been a more vulnerable time to play Fresno State ever than in that game with and and completely changing the identity. They came out with a new quarterback in EJ Warner. I just I don't really put much stock into that one. Um, and then who'd they play last week? Wagner? Who cares? I don't know if I've seen enough to change my opinion on Kansas. We know Jalen Daniels is crazy talented. That's not new information. We knew that last year. We've known that the last couple years. So, yeah, Jalen Daniels made some crazy plays. He basically has perfect numbers so far up to the season. To me, I haven't learned anything new because I knew he could do that. Um, I still have concerns about the Kansas defense. The weakness of this Kansas defense, in my opinion, coming into the season is the secondary. What have we seen? Like, have we seen that tested at all? They played Fresno in the opener and then Wagner. So, my concerns about the Kansas secondary haven't been addressed. I need to see it tested before I change my opinion on it. Now, it looks like DJ Graham, the corner they brought in, he played in the last one. He missed the opener, so that's good. But those two linebackers, Joseph Sip and Kamari, the two inside linebackers, Kamari missed the game. Sip hasn't played yet, so they're not even healthy on this defense. And like I said, just hasn't been tested at all. The question is, is Missouri the team to test it? And that's a very good question. Pribula had elite looking numbers against Central Arkansas, but who cares? Um, I don't know how I feel about the Missouri offense, and that's what really, really is holding me back here. Um, but I truly think this Missouri defense is going to be top 25. They bring back a ton of production. We've seen elite defense from this program in the last couple years, and they bring back what is this, like seven or eight starters. I could This is also Jalen Daniels' first real test on the road. I guess under or Missouri. I'm going to put Missouri up because it's more fun.
Head to head.
Why is it got to be six though? You're killing me with that six.
That's inflated. That's an SEC inflation here.
An SEC tax. I'm hoping if I can get like Missouri at four, I'll play that. You guys have my word on that. If I get Missouri at four, I'll be on it.
Scoop: Uh, I pretty much exactly. I mean, agree with you. I just It's just I don't know if Kansas is good. Uh, I mean, 31 to 7 to Fresno and then 46 to 7 to Wagner. Okay. I I mean, I don't know. I feel like there's nothing to look at. And I get on the other side, Missouri played no one too. I think Pribula looked good. I mean, I think he'll be good this year, but I literally don't know. I know Ahmed Hassan is a monster at running back, but I mean, look, he had two 10 rushing attempts last game, too. So, I feel like none of these teams are really tested. I do love Kansas's front seven. They held Wagner to what, like 40 yards rushing, and then Fresno to what, 50 or something like that. I don't have it in front of me, but if they shut down Hassan, Maris Davis, I Yeah, I mean, I do believe Kansas could possibly win this game because as Kyle said, I love Kansas's secondary. I think it's Kansas's secondary is stacked. But
I hate Kansas's secondary, dude.
I know. It was a joke.
Oh, I was going to say like to a word. Are you?
No, they're their front seven is really good. It's their secondary I'm worried about, but like you said, I don't know if Pribula is good. I don't know. They played what, Central Arkansas. I don't know if that's good or not yet. I know Jalen Daniels looked good so far, but like I said, it's been Wagner and Fresno. I don't have any opinion on this game. I feel like it can go either way just because I I mean, if this was before week one, I feel like what Missouri would be laying more than this, probably nine or 10, I would think, cuz no one believed in Kansas before the season started.
I don't know. I I don't really know what the consensus was on Missouri before the season started either though. I I will say Matt.
I feel like the defense of Missouri everyone was high on. I don't know about the offense.
I think so. Uh, Mac, so the what we saw the first half of last season, the Jalen Daniels turnover machine. Have you just put that in the rearview that doesn't exist anymore? Or
No, I I mean, I obviously was still injured from the back injury the year before that. And I thought the way that they finished beating the three Big 12 contenders coming down the stretch before not being able to make a bowl game, they were I mean, they were a top five team in the Big 12 the second half of the year with those Iowa State, Colorado, and they won in Provo, too. Yeah, they I mean, they were they were great then the year. So I just I'm not a big Missouri. I I kind of think that they're a little bit fraudulent.
Frauds.
I kind of want to be Give me a four and I'll play Missouri. I like that defense. If they're so tough, why can't you lay six with them, you know?
It's fair. It's a big number for like with Pribula. Who the hell knows?
Um I would almost guarantee we're all going to be on the like I bet this. I'm on the plus seven. Yeah, you're plus seven, right, Mac?
Yeah, I've been I've been I've been waiting all summer to this. Like I said on the Mississippi State preview, Mississippi State's going to pick off Arizona State week two. I honestly if you want to talk about teams that flew under the radar and looked the most impressive, Mississippi State, what they did to Southern Miss in that in that hostile environment in Hattiesburg, I thought was super impressive. 500 yards of offense, Blake Shapen back in Jeff Lebby's offense, and Arizona State, they have Dillingham's been warning us in press conference after press conference, going from the hunter to the hunted, target on their back. He says they don't have the same chip. I think they're walking into a hornets nest here. Prime time Starkville, Stark Vegas with the Cowbells. I think Mississippi State's going to beat Arizona State outright.
Uh, I agree. And I I bet the plus seven. Agree with every word. And I I also think the line is kind of crazy. Like this was one year ago. Was it Mississippi State laying seven?
Yeah. At Arizona State.
What? Like I understand based on what we've seen in the last year. I understand the market would shift as far as our opinions here, but two touchdowns a year later, now we're in Starkville. So, it's even more than a two touchdown shift if you consider the location shift. It's like a 20-point shift here, like 18-point. Um, that's just a crazy overreaction to I've said it a number of times, guys. Like, Arizona State could have been seven and five last year. They've won a lot of games they could have lost. I'm not taking credit. It was an awesome year and they definitely were far better than anyone expected and they deserve the credit. I'm just saying it's a little bit of an overreaction. There was a lot of games there where the coin could have flipped the other way there in the last few minutes. And I I like what you said about Mississippi State against Southern Miss. That was not a layup, man. That was that place was loud. I went back and watched was watching the highlights earlier this morning. That place was going nuts there early in the game, and Shapen kept his cool, really, both their RBs, Booth and Bothwell. They've got two weapons in the backfield. I think this Mississippi State offense could be good. Not just like, oh, I think it'll be all right. I think it could be a good offense. And Arizona State's defense, I wasn't really even sold on last year. They bring back all the production. I'm not really sure how good it is. It's a solid defense. It's not elite. Uh, I think Mississippi State's going to move the ball up and down the field on them. And look, Mississippi State trying to make stops against Sam Levitt. I'm not really sure. I do know this number shouldn't be seven, and I very seriously doubt it closes at seven. So, yeah, I'm on the Bulldogs and I think they are very most definitely live.
Who?
Uh, yeah, I'm not I'm not taking Mississippi State. Uh, I'm also not taking Arizona State. I like the over here. Um, I mean, listen, I what you just said, I don't think Arizona State's defense is exactly the best. I mean, they just gave up 19 to Northern Arizona and 242 yards through the air against Northern Arizona. And if you think about it, last year, like you were just saying, they gave up 23 to BYU, 19 to a terrible Utah offense. They gave up 28 to Texas State, 23 to this same terrible offense last year with Mississippi State. And I mean, this Arizona State team last week against Northern Arizona, they scored they had 21 carries for 203 yards. I do find it hard to see, like you said, how Mississippi State can stop Arizona State. I feel like Arizona State's offense is just absolutely stacked. But I also I agree Mississippi State's going to put up points here. Blake Shapen looked good in his first week back. I love their running backs like you do with Bob Wall and Booth. Um, I feel like this is going to go back and forth. Uh, as long as it stays over a touchdown, maybe I would grab Mississippi State, but I just not from last week last year. I'm not trusting them yet. But I feel like this is going to be just a back and forth game because I don't I don't I didn't like Arizona State's defense last year. So, and they returned a lot of their I know they returned a lot of their team from last year, but I still didn't I I think they're So, in the preview, we talked about like Arizona State like and I was like you're high like you're you're not you're disrespecting Arizona State's defense and their offense. I kind of came around after looking at it. I mean, I think their defense is going to be a lot worse this year and I feel like they got lucky a lot last year. So,
That's what I said and you called.
I know, but I just liked Arizona State a lot. Um,
It was a magical year.
It was a magical year, but I feel like, yeah, they're going to get I wouldn't be surprised with like an eight and four year from Arizona State. I just don't I just don't like their defense. So, I just think it's the ACC's a lot better. I feel like Mississippi State's a hell of a lot better. So, yeah, I I like the over here. I think this is going to be a shootout.
Yeah. And speaking of last year's game, we briefly mentioned it. Final score was 30-23. If you watch that game, Mississippi State kind of gifted them two touchdowns early in the game. They had a fumble return for a touchdown, and then they turned the ball over on like their own 40. Was a turnover on downs or I forget exactly what happened.
Yeah, it was like 27-3 at half. Arizona State, Mississippi State just like shot himself in the foot all game.
Right? I remember thinking like, wow, Mississippi State gifted them two touchdowns and then in the second half they came all the way back. Mississippi State was just driving up and down the field. That was on the road in Arizona State. That was last year. That was during It was 100 degrees that game, too.
Yeah.
I think this is going to be one of the more underrated home atmospheres this weekend because you know how they get down in the SEC, man. And with the Cowbells getting a top 10 team coming to Starkville, I think this place is going to be on fire.
Let's go. Yep. I'm on this one. It's one of my favorites. This plus seven. I might play the moneyline. You got me fired up about it, too. So, I'm
It's a prime time game in Starkville. I can't wait for this game.
Let's go. All right. Uh, Moneyline Mac. You can find him over at The College Football Experience. They're live. You guys are live seven nights a week.
Pretty much. Yeah.
Yeah. They do like a what what they do that we don't do here that it's a it's a good watch is they do a recap after where they go through every single game, and it's impossible to watch every single game. It's I watch every single week. It's it's a good watch over there. So, that's The College Football Experience. I'll put the link to it. I'm sure everyone watching already knows what it is, but I'll put the link to it in the comments just to make sure everyone knows where to find it. All right, everyone. Have a good night. Talk to you tomorrow.
Cheers.
All right, thanks everyone for watching. I'll be back tomorrow. I'll be up for a little while.