Transcription
We are truly at a key level right now on altcoins; they must react, otherwise, we could see a bearish continuation. I will provide you with analyses of the altcoin indices precisely. We will look at the key levels today. Also, we will talk a little about Aster, which has absorbed all the market liquidity, especially from large-cap coins, and we will briefly review upcoming trends. Just before we start, I remind you that our free algorithm service is still available. You keep 100% of the gains plus 2.59 R on SPT strategies and 14 TP on LIM strategies. Thousands of you are already using them. To get them, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. This will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via your partner link, and you can click on this second link right here. This will also allow you to register for the contest. There is up to $10,000 to be shared. Once again, it's free, don't worry, there are no problems. You just need to click here to register. You register, so you create your account, and once that's done, you are automatically registered for the contest. This way, if you trade on the platform, you will be eligible and can recover gains. In short, once that's done, you just need to watch this short video here: Algo Trading Mentorship VIP Altcoin. I explain absolutely everything in it on how to get the algos, how to get the mentorship, how to get the VIP Altcoin and crypto, in which I will share the best opportunities from my point of view on altcoins. All of this is free, don't hesitate.
So, to look at the altcoins, I chose the Oders index, which will better represent the evolution of the altcoin market. So, here, we are taking the entire market outside of the top 10, quite simply, and this allows us to get a bit of an idea of what's happening with altcoins. And we see that we are still battling within this FVG. It's important to break it. I extended it slightly because it allowed us to also capture a bit of the daily FVG, but broadly speaking, the red box remains the major resistance that absolutely must be broken to have a bullish acceleration in the altcoin market.
And consequently, Aster, and given that the market is lacking liquidity, I can show you this thanks to this stablecoin printing indicator. We are printing fewer and fewer stablecoins, which means less and less fresh liquidity is entering the market. And this is what causes rotation. That is to say, it's no longer like in 2021 when so much money was coming in that we could fuel all altcoins, or at least a good portion of them. No, we see directly that as soon as a narrative arrives, people sell their altcoins to go into that narrative. The big players also take profits to go into that narrative, and this is what causes the recent pump of Aster to harm a good part of the market because we saw it skyrocket, and we see that it harmed assets like Solana, even though they are not necessarily direct competitors. But we saw that as soon as Aster started to gain traction, Solana lost value. We especially saw Hyperliquid, the direct competitor, get destroyed and continue to be destroyed. So, many people sold their Hyperliquid to go for Aster, which caused the altcoin indices to fall, and that caused a bit of damage. And there's also BNB, I forgot, a large-cap coin that took advantage of this to explode, which went into a somewhat parabolic phase. And it's a large-cap coin, which means it probably absorbed a lot, a lot of liquidity, and we see that it harmed other assets. And so, this is what causes it: OK, well, we have Aster and BNB pumping, but consequently, people are selling their cryptocurrencies to go into these kinds of tokens. And this directly creates strong selling pressure on other assets.
And so, we have indices like Oders. Well, we were already under resistance for a very long time. We've been talking about it for a long time, but here, this divergence with Bitcoin is not confirmed, but it continues to intensify. That is to say, we haven't managed to make new highs on this index, while Bitcoin has made a new ATH. And we've been in this state of divergence for some time now, and we talked about it, but Bitcoin absolutely must break its bearish weekly FVG because if it doesn't succeed here, it will be the first time we witness a rejection of the weekly FVG and perhaps form a lower high, and that would be the first bearish structure we would have on Bitcoin, and I can tell you that it's not very positive for altcoins. That's why it's extremely important to have a BTC here that doesn't settle below this low. That is to say, we can go back and take out stops to try to make another bullish leg. It has already happened that the price did this, but for example, here, you see, hop, just there, I'm just going to remove the element. So, this is Bitcoin here. We went back to take out the stops, you see, hop, we didn't settle below it, and then we had a big bullish leg. That's what should happen here, for example, take out the stops, don't close below, and make another bullish leg.
And therefore, regarding altcoins, once again, Bitcoin depends, or rather, how do I say it, it really dictates the overall market trend. And when we look at it against Bitcoin here, we see that it has weakened again. That is to say, if I switch to daily, there, we see that a bearish structure is forming. We have almost reached the target. Perhaps in dominance, it has been achieved because these are indices, again, they are not traded. So, I'm analyzing it as if I were trading it, but again, there are small differences. We see that altcoin dominance here. So, we had our triangle, we broke out upwards, but now we have the first bearish retracement structures. This is why altcoins are not performing well. We also have Ethereum dominance which is falling again. So, here, we have resumed a bearish dynamic on Ethereum dominance. That is to say, we have a lower high. Here, we are forming a bearish breaker. So, there's a chance that Ethereum dominance has topped out, and we will start to retrace. So, it's quite natural that Bitcoin dominance might bottom out. Here was the zone we had identified. It was the re-accumulation zone of the last movement. And here, we can see that there is potentially a bottom forming here on Bitcoin dominance. We can see it with this false breakout and re-entry range. So, if a bottom is truly forming on Bitcoin dominance, this could impact altcoins a bit. You know I often look at Coin 50 here, and we are at the bottom of the channel, and the fact that we broke here but didn't make new highs, if we break the bottom of the channel, it wouldn't be good. A break of the bottom of the channel, if accepted, obviously, could indicate that we are resuming a bearish dynamic.
And so now, we can look at Coin 50 divided by Bitcoin here. And we can see that similarly, there is a significant bearish structure forming. So, theoretically, we can say that there is some damage to altcoins against BTC. We were in an environment where altcoins were holding up well against Bitcoin, and we are leaving that environment. So, this is not positive. And I remind you that altcoins should be analyzed against Bitcoin, they should be analyzed against Oders, and this allows you to see if your altcoin is strong or not. And so, if we enter a somewhat bearish environment against Bitcoin, well, if your asset is also bearish against Bitcoin, it will simply retrace or even fall against BTC. For example, I don't know, but here, I see EGLD, the first one that comes to mind, but here, we are still bearish against Bitcoin. So, these are assets that continue to lose value against BTC, knowing that BTC has lost momentum, that BTC has formed a bearish weekly fair value gap. It's the first in a very long time. Yes, for a very, very long time. Honestly, it's been a bearish weekly FVG. The last one we saw was in June or even July 2024. So, it's been over a year since we've seen a bearish weekly FVG. It's not the end of the world, again, but it shows that there is a slowing dynamic on BTC, and if your altcoin is underperforming, well, there's a chance it will simply fall.
And so, I also like to look at Total 3, having removed stablecoins here. And this is a slightly different reading, and that's why we are at a key zone. That is to say, we have broken the bearish FVG. So, theoretically, there would be a way to reach a new ATH on this Total 3 index, with stablecoins removed. But to do so, we absolutely must maintain the last low. Why? Because here, if we break the last low, we will have re-entry below the fair value gap, and we will especially have the break of the last low. And then we could even materialize a breaker. And if a bearish weekly breaker forms on this type of index, theoretically, these are signals that would suggest we will retest 674 to 624 billion in capitalization. And this could translate into a dump. That's why I'm making this video today. We are truly at important levels. We absolutely must make a higher low. Here, we must maintain the dynamic. That is to say, here, we formed a higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high. We also need to find a higher low because if we break this low, it starts to indicate that the dynamic is reversing, and we would have a bearish resumption in the altcoin market. So, it is really crucial for the market to hold here.
Tomorrow, we have the PCE, which is news that could potentially save the crypto market because if inflation is low and lower than expected, then the market expects a PCE of 0.2% here in terms of forecast. So, this is what is expected and predicted by the market currently. If we are below 0.2%, we could have a short squeeze on Bitcoin and Ethereum, and this could also trigger a short squeeze on altcoins. However, if we are above these figures, it's not positive and could confirm the recovery we are currently seeing in the market.
And so, here on Total 3, as I said, we absolutely must not break the last low, otherwise, we would have a reversal of the dynamic. As you can see, the dynamic is bullish, but if we start to break the last low, then we would have a reversal forming, and potentially a retracement of this bullish leg, or even confirm, unfortunately, a divergence with Bitcoin. It's not impossible, but the divergence would be that we managed to make an ATH on BTC, and on Total 3 ES, we didn't succeed, so we would have somewhat weaker altcoins here. That's why these indices are important to read. Honestly, the signal I really don't like to see here on Coin 50 is the break of the channel. We absolutely must maintain this channel; we must not settle below it because if that's the case, well, it could really start to indicate reversals here, and that wouldn't be good.
Okay. Is there another index that we can observe? Well, I have formulas that I observe from time to time, but sometimes I forget them, which is why I've saved them. This, no, we don't care about that. This also. This too. Well, I have AI altcoin indices, for example, here, which are still consolidating, but there's no bullish signal on these indices. These are the AI against, no, this is also another AI index. We had a rebound, but since then, it has already gone down again, and it has been diverging for a very long time with Bitcoin here. You see, that is to say, BTC then made highs, but this index did not succeed. So, this proves again that we have a weak AI market. And this is AI against Bitcoin. We can clearly see that we are breaking the support, and if it is accepted below the support, then we should expect a bearish continuation of the AI market against BTC, so potentially bearish turbulence on AI altcoin indices. And this was, but it doesn't change much. It's what I showed you earlier. And I don't have any other indices. We don't care about this. This is the same, we don't care. This has nothing to do with crypto. I could talk about these indices. That could be an interesting video. And this was all about bonds, etc. But again, this will likely be the subject of a separate video to talk about bonds, which are potentially starting to show signs of bottoming. But again, I'll make another video about that. So, I've talked about all the indices that I personally find interesting. So, yes, signals that are not great compared to the signals we had on Total 3 ES. That's why we absolutely must maintain the last lows. If we lose them, well, we will unfortunately have to expect bearish divergence confirmations against Bitcoin. And this is not good at all, because it would indicate that BTC, if it settles below its low, could retrace further down. And if that's the case, well, it opens the door to a deeper retracement in the altcoin market. So, there are altcoins that are stronger than others and will hold up better, but 95% of the market is underperforming BTC, and so it wouldn't be very good for the altcoin market.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe if you haven't already, and leave a comment. Thank you so much to those who are playing along. I remind you of the links in the description box, the first link in the pinned comment. For those who want to join the school and train with me, it's the only paid subscription I offer, and right here, join my trading school. You will have access to the private briefs I do with students every day from Monday to Friday. We analyze the market, we find opportunities together, I answer students' questions, I show them trading concepts, I analyze their altcoins, I talk about my personal exposure to the market. So, the price is only €49 per month, it's commitment-free. You have even cheaper offers for 3, 6, and 12 months. You also have access to the school's training, which is only available within the school and cannot be obtained anywhere else. You also have a brief description of what you will find in the school, testimonials from members if you are interested. I'll stop here. See you very soon. Have a great day.