Transcription
Now, that's how you end a quarter. You can see right in here where we closed over this area and then on the NDX, it was the same exact thing. We closed right into this. We had 5 days to do it, but we flipped some really key levels at the end of today. I know what you're going to say, but it was light volume. The question is, yeah, it was. The question more is, does it matter? I'm going to say that it doesn't considering the circumstances and considering where we are. There are some things here with the S&P, the NDX, what the stocks did today, why we rallied, and what's so significant about it. So, let's jump right into it.
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So, the number one intraday driver of today was right here at 10:00. And you can just see that doji on the dollar marked off. If we want to take a look at that on the S&P and just go to the 10:00 area, you'll note you have like this little move right here where it looks like we're going to reverse. Goes back up and we never really undercut that level. If you take a look at it, if you mark that off right here, coming straight across, that becomes the low. Watch this on the NDX. and then we'll get to what it is and then why you should actually care and then we'll go right there at 10:00 that bar again becomes the low. Very clear what bar did it, what bar became our base and what took place from there. We knew exactly what we were looking at today. We went through this pre-market publicly with you and we nailed it in the community. But the important thing about it is understanding why this happened so that you know what to look for going forward. So, let's get to it.
Now at 10 o'clock today. And for those that don't know, these videos are done unedited and raw so I can pack in as much as possible for you at the same time. But this is JOLTS jobs and what you're seeing here is higher better. It means there's more job openings. And so we take a look here from June over to where you are now. This is the most job openings that you've had of any time. So as we hear AI is going to eat everything. If you're talking to Dario or any of these guys, you know, jobs are going away. Okay. So if we look right here, we can see that is not the case that you're at the highest levels that you've been in 12 months. Down here, you'll see April and May. So April, you're going to see the actual came in at 761 and then they adjust that to this previous 758. Consensus last time was 688 and you came in at 761. Consensus this time was 73 and you came in at 759. So this is a pattern of more jobs being available, which is what you want to say. Now, this is a clear sign going into non-farm payrolls on Thursday, but what this did was it caused the dollar to drop. A lot of people are concerned about inflation and what's going to happen with rates. So, when you start to see the job market stabilizing, which this is a sign of, that's good for equities. So, if the dollar drops, what happens? Equities tend to go higher. And that's exactly what happened. That is the low of the market. That is the exact reason why you bought them there. It is nothing more than that. So, don't get it twisted. That is the intraday areas.
Now, from a longer term standpoint, why did we have the movement that we had in the day itself? And this goes into a couple things. If you watched last Saturday's video, we talked about how we were going through this huge Russell rebalance. We talked about the Russell rebalance and the pension fund rebalance. And again, if we just do the simple things and go, okay, well, here was Monday and then Tuesday and just come back and you here, let's do it this way because this is I'm gonna confuse the heck out of people. Watch. Let's do it this way and we'll do daily and we'll mark it off this low and then we'll come through it this way because if I do it weekly, I'm just going to confuse everybody. I don't want to mark this off as well. And then we'll get rid of that. Drop it down there like it's hot like the kids say. All right, so we have our long bar down at June 9th, right? We thought we were getting world peace. We weren't. Then we were promised world peace and we didn't get it. Gap fill and then everyone's aware of the rebalancing and the repositioning by pension funds. And then we come all the way back down to Friday. And then that Friday does what? It marks the low. Pension funds and Russell have done rebalancing and then we start trading up. And you trade right up to where we broke down. So everybody came in and said, "All right, well here goes the rebalancing week. Now that's over." And we came right to this area. And I think this is really important to get because now not only do you have that but and this is a really tumultuous week or five past trading days because you've been all over the place and then you look at the market and realize man we haven't gone anywhere in June. But what's important about this is you have a lot of window dressing tonight. Window dressing is where they buy stocks so that they show that they own those names to their investors and that happens on June 30th. Today is June 30th. So, a lot of names that you'll look at, if you go over here on your screen, it doesn't matter what your names are. But if you look at any of the names that you're in today, you'll see that they're now down. Pretty much everything across the board will be marked down after hours. Why? Because they bought them to print the tape and then they come in the next day. And maybe they sell, maybe they don't, maybe they reposition themselves. But, you know, Intel was 142. By the end of the day, after hours, you're down a full dollar. And once you know this stuff, you know how to position yourself going into the next day, right? Okay, we'll get to this and we'll get to some of the bigger names and how to play this. But when you understand the window dressing side of the market, it allows you to take advantage of that.
So once we got through 10:00, it was just basically on. You got through your hurdle and then you know that they're going to want to own semiconductors because if you don't own semiconductors for the last quarter, if you go back to March 30th to June 30th, semiconductors are up 108%. Do you know what your hedge fund limited partners don't want to see? That you don't own semiconductors for the last quarter. They really don't want to see that, right? So if you're up that, they're going to mark that. Now, tomorrow the question is which names do they hold? Which names do they sell? And we can go through some of them, but I think there's some real big distinctions to make. The important thing for us is to take the dailies because you can't move the dailies this way just on window dressing. You can in the last couple hours or intraday, but you can't keep it going, right? Especially now that it's in the can. So, if we do the simple things here, and then we're going to go back to the S&P and the NASDAQ in a second here. But if we do the simple things, we've undercut the 22 and then we've bounced and now we're closing here and you now have the second highest close on the S&P or on the stocks that you've had. It's been a long trading day. Going to make slip ups. You're going to have to stay with me. And I do have a double espresso in front of me. So, just bear with me.
So, if we take a look here, you have that close, but hit the 22 and bounce. Hit the 22 and bounce. broke it through the 22, bounced, hit the 22 for a day over and over. This is doing the same thing and people are expecting a different reaction until the earnings go away on semiconductors. They're not going anywhere. When they go away, they're going to go somewhere. If you take a look at ESOCS right now, you're going to notice something that the ESOCS doesn't really look as great as the semiconductor index as a whole. If I look at ASOC, you're going to note that ASOC looks better. AI names. So, if I take ASOcks and I divide it by the ESOCS, take a look. What are you starting to see? You're starting to see a trend change that you haven't had in some time. And sometimes it's easier to turn these into a line. Go to a bare chart and then, as the kids say, we're going to drop it like it's hot and look at the hourly and then we can kind of see this and go, "Wow, you know, semiconductors, the A's, meaning the AI names over the equal weights have really been outperforming." Right? So, like from 26 on and then you hit a point with what what happened, right? crushing then it's like that's it 26 on you didn't want to be in those did you wanted to be in the ESOCS and you can see that very clearly here so what I think we're starting to get here I'll show you I'm going to do this on Saturday in detail but if I go and take a look at this see the low see the lower low see the low see the higher low so you're starting to get to a point here let's drop it like it's hot on the 4 hour you guys are always welcome to comment just not on the drop it like it's high comments see what's going on here so you're starting to set up for as to start leading again I think that the AI names are going to start leading again and it's going to be kind of vicious if that's what happens. We started to see signs of that today. But I would keep your eye on this. Th this is definitely of interest to me.
See, we were sold a bill of goods recently and that bill of goods was, oh, we have to rotate and we're all going to rotate into IGV names. I don't know if you remember this or not. IGV, we off to buy software. That's going to be the next thing. Some of these software names look great, but they have to be the right names. I don't think it's the whole sector. And then it was the mags are going to lift. And then we look at the mags today and yeah, they're not falling off a cliff, but some of these names like they don't look that great to me. I mean, Meta tried to get up there. Amazon tried and then all of a sudden complete kaibos and failed. These aren't the best names in the world in my opinion for me to be sitting here and staring at. It's just how I feel about them. I don't think they're the right names. I started to think that they were and then I got Netflix, you know, in 48 hours. this thing looked like it was going to break out and then all of a sudden wham and it just rolls right back over. So, I don't know that that's where they're going. You know, it seemed to me that they were going into the IBB names and I still think they might be. But then at the same time, we need to take a look at something and we're going to do it on Saturday, not today. But gold, gold seems to be holding all of a sudden, like it's not taking out lower lows. People are watching silver and saying the same thing. All right, how is gold and silver going to act versus the dollar? And this is something that you might want to take a look at. what happens to the dollar and if the dollar drops what happens to gold and silver right so looking at those kinds of relationships might not be the worst thing in the world to take a look at if you take a look at gold in May and you see how gold has rolled over what happened right it went lower what happened to the dollar so you' see that oh and then from there that May we ran up all right so then if you're going to take a look at the S&P and go well what happened in May well in May we put in the top all right well when did the dollar start rising and how long did it take before that caught up to the S&P. So right now we want a weaker dollar based upon what's going on out there because of the cost of goods being shipped out etc. We want inflation to come down and that's the setup right now. So we actually want the dollar to drop and you would think that would benefit industrials and there's industrials. What are they doing? Hitting all-time highs, right? Weaker dollar selling globally. So that should benefit those guys. And then you look at names like Caterpillar hitting all-time highs. GEV start looking at that breaking out all-time highs, right? When we I've been going through this name, we actually went through this name with you guys that we did this in the community around the,30 and now we're at alltime highs again. Breaking out of this huge I guess it's kind of a cup kind of a wonky handle. Not the best handle, but it's there, isn't it?
So, I think that there's a lot going on here under the hood, but I want to go back to this before I get too far in the deep end and just show you a couple things. So, I'm going to go to a bare chart and then I'm just going to go to this open, high, low, close. And we're going to close this off. And then we're just going to start with the basics. And the basics are that's an island. And you have 3 to 5 days to get above that island or into that island. 1 2 3 4 5 we have a winner. So, the S&P actually got into this in five trading days and is well into it on the six. You are closing above the close of that island. On top of that, you are reversing here. Take a look at this. So, here's the 22 and here's the 12. And this is the first time that you are closing above those since you have that island. You want to make sure that you are closing above that level tomorrow. Whatever that low is. If you want look at the spy, it'll be the same exact thing. And we can take a look at that right here. So, we just want to make sure that we're closing above that 740 tomorrow. If we could, that would be the beast knees. If we go and take a look here at the cues, it wasn't as clean. 1 2 3 4 5. What I would say is this kind of close. It still didn't get us there by 5 days. Here we are. And what I noticed here, and we were talking about this in the community a lot today, right over this area. You can see how we hit that previous close and then we just completely rejected it. And I thought this was worth pointing out. And you are above the 12 and the 22, which does mean it might be time to start looking at swings again. As long as we can stay above this 7, what is it? 723. I think we're there. As long as we can stay above this, I'm feeling pretty comfortable saying like, yeah, it's probably worth taking a couple shots now on swings. And we've added a couple things. But if we take a look at that island and I notice this, if I come all the way back here and I just drop it right from that level, you'll see it too. Like over undercuts and then we're trying to hit it again. We got over one, two, three, and then that was it. So this is a really tough level. 738 for whatever reason seems to be a real pickle. So, we want to see if we can get over that and then we want to watch this 723 just in case we break down. The fact that we're in here is great. What I'm trying to wrap my noodle around is how much of this is real and how much was window dressing end of day. From the 10:00 on, it's really hard to think that that's all window dressing. And it did present like a lot of opportunity today if you bought the right names. Intel, there were certain names out there they really wanted to own. And as soon as they flipped, they were just absolutely perfect trades.
So, I'll give you an example of one. And they just lined up absolutely perfectly. Like literally right off the open. You didn't even have to wait. Get rid of the print in the post. And I'll show you what I mean by this. We'll go to right here perfectly. Hold on one sec. Let me just pull this up because you can't really miss these things. Like it was just so darn simple. Here's 9 five bar five. Mark that off. And then you're going to see the 9:30 bar right here. Look how you came down to the top of that. Look at the size of this bar here. Let me show you this. This is something that we own as a swing in the high teens 117. We also trade around them because the volatility of these names has been insane. I love the volatility, but you have to know how to trade it. You you really need core positions and trading positions, but other than that, you're just going to get chopped up. Intel sold the open. So, I sold a bunch of puts today at 130 as well, and then I kept rolling them up and I finally rolled them up to like 140. But we bought long at 133 and then I just kind of held the thing and my we moved the stops up to I think it was to 140 to the end of the day. I'll take a look in a minute here. But the point that I'm getting at here with this bar is once you saw that reversal, your life got really easy. So I I've been doing this long enough I can eyeball them. After two decades of staring at charts, you'll be able to do it too. That and you'll lose your sanity. But see this bar at 9:30, right? So right off the rip that bar, see the ATR? And my ATR settings are different, but it doesn't matter. You should use whatever settings you want. So, you'll see that right here, you're at like 43 cents. This bar will be twice that. Watch. But wait, there's more. So, there you are. I think you're at b 65. Like, right off the rip, that bar is like 3x the ATR. So, that tells us what it's a control bar. I like control bars cuz I'm not the smartest bulb, right? Then you have a three bar pattern right in here. And how do you know that you have three bar patterns, right? So, you always know you have a three bar pattern because what you're doing, let's get rid of this because that's going to confuse people. You know you have a three bar pattern because you're right at that 50% line. Like, you're literally right there. And so, whenever this bar, second bar is 50% or less. There it is. And it's not perfect. You're probably under it by a haircut, you know? You just have to you eyeball it. You don't It doesn't have to be an exact science. Let's get rid of this. And let's get rid of this. Perfect. So, now you have that three bar pattern. And then what do you get the next day? The higher high. And that's really all you need. We put the trade on and then the trade that's it and we just let it go. It gave me no reason really to do anything with it. Just broke out, kept going. And this is the problem with trend days and if you don't know what you're looking for like once that 10:00 data came out, that was it. There was really no reason to do anything. You knew intraday the only thing that was going to hurt you was JOLTS jobs or a mean tweet. So, and then the rest of the day we cut we pushed and then you can see this. If I drop it to a five and it doesn't matter what you're using, but you should be using something for a trend. One of the things I try to get people to use is this private cloud. And it doesn't like if you're not using this, you can use moving averages. This cloud that we use, it actually changes with the rate of change velocity and the VIX. So, there's a lot to it. It's just not a cloud. But you can see right here where like it changes colors. And so, right on there, it's like telling you like, hey, that's probably it for the day. And we actually put that out there, I think. Hold on. Yep, we put that out there right there. Let me just grab it real quick. And then there was another trade here. and I'll show you that with it. So then Intel day trader, these are just how the alerts go. Swing adding to the swing. Doing this the day trade using 13930 makes a lot of sense. I'll show you why on the hourly and then we just move the stop for those that want to hold it just for the day to 140. Right? So if you go to the hourly and you flip down and let's get rid of everything. Now you'll see it. You can't miss it. We'll clean these off now. So you break out and then you go one, two, right? See how tight that second bar is here at 11:30? So, as soon as you broke out of that, it gave you another day trade right on it. And then all you're doing is just moving the stop up because that's where the stop went. And then the stop would just move up to here, but you still could make a couple dollars there. And then, of course, you knew when you hit all-time highs and this closed, that was going to be an area reversal, but it was an area of interest. Doesn't mean you're going to stop there, but clearly these people have been dying to get out forever. So, you're going to have some issues. And then they got out. Now, you can see where you are after hours. But that kind of trading right now is working exceptionally well and I think it's going to continue to.
Really what we're seeing is just some outright breakouts. And that's why I don't know how much is really window dressing per se. So like when I look at something like AMD and like this is what I get and that's what AMD looks like. It's really hard to look at that breakout and say well that's window dressing. Maybe not. You know we'll find out more tomorrow. But you have some mess of breakouts on these names. All these semiconductor capital equipment manufacturers, they're all breaking out. And now that you can, I mean, anybody can see this. A KAC, ASML that nobody wanted to own is now a $2,000 stock just like that. It's here it is. And it's just absolute monster. And you can see Lamb Research and 39% of their revenues of Lamb Research comes from ND, which obviously is Flash. So, I mean, clearly that's going to be an absolute monster as well. I don't know that the theme's going away. I think the theme's going to be pretty wild. What do you need to watch? You need to really watch DRM tomorrow and see if it's able to hold. Can memory names actually hold? Does Taiwan and Korea actually buy their stock markets tonight? Because they really have not been buying their stock markets, right? Even with what Taiwan Semi is doing, which is just ripping everybody's freaking face off. Even doing that, no, you're not seeing that as much. And I do think that that's something that we really have to pay attention to. Um, I think it's a very good thing, but I definitely think it's something that we have to pay attention to.
So, going forward, I just think that we're just we just rolled right back into the semi-trades. Tomorrow, we get the first Fed speaker at the ECB, >> US Bloom Energy. And I think that'll be really interesting. What else do I think super interesting? Oh, we went through some Russell rebalances for you on Saturday and then you can see we talked about how be was probably overshot on the Russell and just because it was a Russell rebalance. You see, we closed on Friday and then by Monday you're at 273 300 and then it got some good news tonight and I think you're at 337. So there's about 90 points. I try to give you guys stuff that actually moves. Another one that was there that was doing the same exact thing was Cardano. I don't know why I called it Cardano. CRDO. Wow, we're definitely going to need more caffeine. So then you can see here at 288 and how you came all the way down. I don't think I've ever even traded Cardano. And then here's Friday. Monday we did the undercart, the rip and dip, and then here we are. So I think those names are super interesting. Nike, I mean, I don't really have words for how bad this is. So they actually beat the lowered expectation, but the inventories are really bad. The pool wall was 40 and nobody just really seems to care. Everybody's just puking it. I'm not really sure where we're heading here and like h how this is going to go. I actually think you're going to get to the point where you just become a private equity takeover. Like this is it's really bad. Like if you take a look at this, let me just show you this real quick and then we'll wrap it up and we'll bring this bad boy home. Oh, if you're trying to get in the community, I'm going to open it again uh after July 4th. But the conference call, I've seen conference calls go well. This one's not going well. So, I would expect this to have some issues. The football is 40. So, they'll probably try to squeeze you guys up to that tomorrow, right? just to flesh out the option, guys. But again, community is open starting July 7th or 8th, whatever Monday is. Make sure you're on the list. Links in description. I also pin it. I don't know how they're going to handle this tomorrow, man. This is the one thing that really gets to me. Like, what does Nike do? You know, cuz I keep looking at Lulu and these names saying like, is apparel like that bad? Is it really that bad? I mean, apparently it is. Yeah. So, we'll see what they have to say tomorrow about it. But the most interesting thing about this that came out of it, I'll just tell you where we are. Jordan street wear and sportsear is negative for the first time year-over-year. So like that's their bread and