Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Friday, December 5th brief, it is 8:23 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long-short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the Wells are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a bearish movement on Bitcoin, but not as much as I expected. I was really expecting to at least reach this FVG. So, it is probable that we will reach it later. But currently, we are rather in a bullish moment, or even a range in which we could simply range and so on and reach this zone this weekend to potentially have a rebound because I think we have all the necessary data to reach $98,000 within the week. By next week, I think we will be at $98,000, and it is very probable that we will also reach this today during the PCE Corp news. So we also have ETH BTC. When we look at the chart, it is rather bullish. So logically ETH will have a bit more strength than Bitcoin. We should have a potential rebound on ETH that is stronger, more intense than on BTC. And this is rather interesting because it will mean that the Alts will surely perform better than Bitcoin, and logically we could have some moments of happiness on the Alts. So there will potentially be trades to attempt on them. So that's pretty cool. Regarding Bitcoin, what I think is that currently we are really in a range in which we are stuck between these two zones, and we even have a bigger range between these two zones right here. So between $95,877 and $80,000, but currently we are stuck in a range between 91 and 94. So why not simply split below this range right here to re-enter it afterwards and then have an accumulation to then reach $98,000. I think that would be a pretty good plan. And now, that does not mean that you have to short to reach this zone. It simply means that if we reach this zone, it could be a potential long to aim for $98,000.
Regarding economic news, today we have the PCE Corp. So, that has a direct impact on the figures, on inflation. Consequently, on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting on interest rates, we have currently a very high chance that the interest rates will decrease by 0.25%. So, it seems to me that it is, uh, tac. There, it is next week, we have the Fed's decision on interest rates on December 10th at 8 PM. So, expect quite a lot of movement next week because we will have the YOLS report on new job openings, FOMC economic projections, FOMC statement, the Fed's decision on interest rates at 8 PM, and the FOMC press conference at 8:30 PM. So then, we will be fixed on the next meeting. We will have revealing slips of the tongue about what could happen at the next meeting on interest rates. And so, it is really this that makes it so that it is really the 10th that will determine how the beginning of next year will unfold. So pay close attention to this news, knowing that the annual closing is soon. So clearly this day will be decisive.
Regarding the crypto bubble, what we see is that we have red almost everywhere. We still have Alts that are mostly following Bitcoin, and only ZC and Mix are managing to get out of this dump. So we see that ZC has gained 10.7%, Mix has gained 6.8% currently, and the rest is in the red around -4%.
Regarding funding open interest, what we see is that we have a funding that is currently rising, but we still have, uh, so an open interest that is falling. So what that means is that these are not positions that are currently being opened, it is rather longs that are being closed, uh, shorts, sorry, that are being closed. So we potentially have fewer liquidations to the upside than expected. On the other hand, when we look and zoom in a bit, we see a rise in open interest here with a drop in funding. This means that here, a majority of shorts have entered. And when you enter short in this zone, you put your stops, well, quite simply, above the high. So that means that right here we have quite a few stops, and therefore reaching $92,600 is largely probable. Now we also have a lot of stops to reach just above, at $94,200. So logically, it is a matter of time before we reach them. If we look at liquidations, we see that we have a rather enormous cluster up to $98,425. We have $2.35 billion to liquidate if we reach this zone. On the other hand, we don't have much after that. So that means that potentially we could reverse if we reach $98,000. So let's pray that people continue to short when we are at $98,000 to simply go much higher and simply have a rejection to then reach higher. But in any case, what we see is that there are not many liquidations to reach on the downside, and so we have a cluster at $89,700 to reach. $89,900, so that coincides with the zone I was talking about earlier in the H4 FVG. So we are in this zone around $89,900. It's really about simply wicking into this zone to then re-enter and accumulate to then reach $98,000, which we have. So we have a lot of liquidations to reach in this zone.
Regarding what the Wells are doing, the Wells sold this movement. They are currently selling this micro pump that we have right here. We see it, they sold this movement, while the micro wells are buying, and the retails are in total indecision. So clearly the Wells are not on the bullish side currently. We will need a nice little news for them to start buying again. So why not this afternoon around, so at 4 PM, we have the news on the PCE Corp. So, as a reminder, it's at 4 PM today.
So regarding Bitcoin, what I think is that this plan could be very good. Now, that does not mean that we are going to dump. It means that well, if we pump directly, we know that we have a cluster below afterwards. So if we dump, if we pump directly to $98,000, it will be probable to reach this zone again. But there, you can imagine, we will then move to a trend change on H4, and therefore the rebound will potentially serve as a rejection to then be able to go much lower. So ideally, we would need this dump before the pump. So, uh, well, pray that either a lot of shorts open in this zone, and therefore the rejection is simply a rejection in which we return to the upside afterwards. But if we have people who go bullish and so on and everyone goes long, well logically the accumulation of liquidity that will happen here will be a potential rejection in this zone. So we will have this rejection, we will reach this zone, but afterwards, well, I think it will be difficult to make a new high since well, we will have liquidated everything that was to be taken on the upside, and therefore the rejection could be violent and reach much lower. So be careful about that. The plan remains the same, which is to reach $98,000, and we will depend on the configuration in which we get there to know what happens next. If we pump directly, clearly it will be dangerous. And if we have this little dump before, it could be really encouraging for the future because we could go much higher. So, well, I wish you a good day. I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.