Transcription
So yes, hello everyone. We have begun. We're recording. It's a new week and a new day, right? We have opportunity on the horizon, right? This week should be straightforward, right? Because, like, literally, by looking at the economic calendar, we can see that there are no major USD news events until Thursday and Friday. All right. Just by looking at that, you can, you know, probably tell that we will have most of the volatility in regards to the US dollar on Thursday, all right? And if it's not on Thursday, it's going to be on Friday, right? We don't want to, you know, try to be too specific as if we know the future. Maybe some of us do. I'm kidding. No one knows the future.
So yes, um, if we get sequential SMT, you know, in regards to the weekly cycle, you know, between Wednesday and Thursday, then that should set the, you know, tone for a, you know, entire week trend, which should be quite explosive, you know, going into Friday. So a trend should be established by then. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, we will not, you know, be expecting too much, but there will be opportunities if the things that we look for present themselves, right? But for markets to, you know, move, we need, for the market to move, we need, you know, liquidity, engineered liquidity.
So yes, before going forward, can you guys hear? Right? Can everyone hear? Just want to make sure. Yes. Okay, good. So all we need is a cracking correlation. And remember that the thing that sets up one shot, one kill is a, you know, a two-stage cracking correlation, which occurs between the weekly cycle and then it ends up, you know, within the daily cycle. So, for example, you'll have cracking correlation between Wednesday and Thursday, then you have one between the Asian session and the London session, or the London session and the New York session, right? So pretty much looking at the economic calendar, you see where you, you know, should be, or the days, you know, within where you should be focused on, right? Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday will be more difficult than Thursday and Friday. Does that mean that you can't trade on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday? No, that's not what it means, right? This is week one, right? This is the week where you don't expect too much, right? For example, this would be the Asian session for the month, right? And, you know, you guys know that basically already. That's basic stuff here.
So Monday, what do you look for? If we have a cracking correlation between, you know, last week's high, or, you know, the previous week's high, same thing, or Friday's high, between Monday and Friday, then we could expect some retracement or expansion in regards to the market condition or the market that you're looking at, right? And the only time you look to do something whenever there are no news events, right, is if we have a cracking correlation, right? And I'm just saying that again so you get it through your heads. And remember, and I'm going to say this as well, again, I've said it before last week, you don't want to be, you know, even if you win, right, you don't want to be championing your win, you don't want to be celebrating your wins. If you lose, you don't want to be crying over your losses, you don't want to be stressed, right? You just want to trade, right? As long as you manage your risk, you've won, right? As long as you're doing good risk management, you've won, right? Have a target, right? Whether it's two hours or three hours, depending on, you know, if you're accurate or whatever, but manage your risk. Like going into this week, if you're not someone that manages your risk, you've been on a winning streak. Oh, I got three funding accounts, or I made $110,000 last week. They, I made $115,000, you know, whatever. You will lose all of that if you don't manage your risk.
And anyways, let's look at the index futures. Try. So currently, right, this is not, right, a high probability condition. We're in between, right, this range and this range, right? So basically, we are near equilibrium in regards to most, well, pretty much all of these assets, which are closely correlated. However, right, I would expect a, you know, push up, price to push up, so, some form of expansion in regards to this asset class cause due to the fact that here we have price above equilibrium already, right? So I would expect the Dow to follow suit, right, and, you know, take out these highs, right, here. And this is not high probability price action again, right? It is not. This is not the best price action. And this is due to the fact that, you know, we have all these, these economic issues, right? The Fed is printing too much money, you know, interest rates, you know, mortgage rates, everything, the bond market, you know, everything, you know, is just affecting these assets right now, right? Now, the price action, how does it look? Stupid, right? It's difficult to participate in this market. And this, all of this was last week. And anyone that told you that they had fun trading this is lying to you, right? The best type of price action would be is range in price action, or, you know, not range in price action, but price action that forms large ranges. Like, for example, you have here, price fell and fell. Here, we had price just rallying, rallying, rallying. That's good price action, trending price action, right? When you have price consolidating like this, right, and we do not have, you know, any form of higher time frame SMT here, then, you know, once we cross equilibrium, we could expect price to go higher. Like, for example, here, right? I'd expect price to take, you know, these highs here, then here, due to the fact that we have crossed the equilibrium, right? I have no faith in this fair value gap right here, right now. I'd expect price to at least trade above here, right? Right now, here you can see that we have this asset, which is the S&P 500, trade above this fair value gap already, right? So if we cut through, you can see that here would be, you know, where the fair value falls within this one. So my take on the index futures trade, I'd like to see price, you know, go higher for now. I, there is no reason for me to do anything. And there is no sequential SMT, as you guys can see here. We traded above this, this high here. We traded above this high. And here we also traded above this high. Why is this happening? Anyways, yeah, here we should above this side, right? Whenever we see things like this, right, and we have the bond market doing the same thing, then we could expect that that was the actual market structure shift, right? So even though it's difficult to, you know, tell, you know, the direction in these types of market conditions, which it is extremely difficult to do, right? We have consolidation here and consolidation here, and we're within a range, and then we're at the equal, like, we're at the lowest probability. Like, it doesn't get much lower than this. I'm telling you, it does not get much lower than this, right? So lower time frames, you know, would be better to be trading right now. And you need SMT on at least a 15-minute time frame. And if you're using that, then you would need, you know, that to be falling within the daily cycle also. The Asian session, out of every session today, the Asian session probably has the most liquidity above the highs on the lows, right? And this is something that I'm just throwing in here, right? So if you have a back correlation between the London session and the Asian session, what do you think will happen? Okay, we'll talk about that in the future here, right?
And this is the Dow, right? We're using the Dow today, right? Here we have equal highs. This is the forward time frame, right? And this was our blank week, the Joker, you know, if you will. So here we had a cracking correlation, whereas we had the low of this week trending below the previous week's low, right, and closing below it as well. So I remember going into, you know, last week, we expected price above this high. But remember, price will not, you know, be gravitated to our liquidity or buy sell liquidity unless we have this here, a cracking correlation. So here, and this was three stages. So here we had SMT here between this week and this week. And then what did we have? We have had SMT between Wednesday and Thursday. Okay. So we had SMT between this week here, this week here, then Wednesday and Thursday. Right after which we saw price fall back within this inverse fair value, but not any inverse fair value, right? Whenever you see the wicks like overlap like this, right, and there are times when there will be a, you know, quote unquote order block here, but right here, there's nothing. Remember, wicks are gaps. So due to the fact that wicks are gaps, we would treat this as a balanced price range. Price falls within the next pass to overdraw on liquidity after we have all of this cracking correlation occur, right? So we would expect price to, you know, be gravitated to this high, right? Due to the fact that we have no cracking correlations here at the top, right? Everything is going as it's supposed to be. Everything is in line. Everything is symmetrical, right? And remember rules of premium and discount, right? We want to see price trade below the low, or at least one of the assets within our trade, below the low of the previous week if we are looking for a cracking correlation, right? So price trades below this low, there's a correlation. Ultimately, immediately, this becomes discount. When is this, right? This swing low right here, when can we use this? When is this gap to be used as an entry? Whenever we have price trading back within the balanced price range while making a creating a failure swing between the current day and the previous day, or the current quarter and the previous quarter, while the other asset class is making a lower low. And this is how we'll function, right? And this is how you should function. And this is, you know, the basic gist of it. But this is the model that we should be implementing, right? As you guys can see, getting in here, up here, that's already like four R's. You just need three. You don't need more than that. Also, these highs, right? Whenever you have this, right? You have this high right here form, which was already drawn liquidity. Then we have this high right here fail to break above this one. Then we have another one, another failure swing, right? When you have three failure swings, listen, when you have three failure swings and then you have a cracking correlation, you know, in two stages, this will be a magnet. This high, which we already highlighted, since practice like here, right? Also, right here, and this is something that you need to study, right? Here you can see that we traded below this low right here, right? We did not do this in, you know, the index futures and the index futures and the interest rate trade. They should be moving in the same direction at all times. Whenever they're not, then that that condition is low probability, right? Here we should below this low. Do you guys remember when price was around here and we highlighted this right here, this SMT, and we so we expect to press higher? If you go back in the group, you scroll up, you'll see it. We even talked about it, right? But what makes this right here very, and then you're going to see this all over the place, but guess what? People understand and people even believe in it, and that's what makes it amazing. Cuz like, only you will actually, you know, believe it cuz you will see it in action. You will see it working, right? And the fact that you're paying means that you take it seriously. If you don't take it seriously, go back in your notes and you look for everything to line up. It will not work, right? It will not work. 100% will not work.
So when do you have explosive price action like this? First of all, you need liquidity. And if you go here, you can see the liquidity, right? And this is not who's cherry-picking this. No, no, no, no, no, no. Remember, we highlighted this before this happened, right? If you go back in chart chat, you scroll up, you'll see it. You will see it right here. From this high, from this low to this high, right? And let's do this. Price came back down below the 50%. Right? And this was the failure swing which created the intermarket sequential SMT, which allowed the second stage to distribute higher and clear these highs. So let's do this again. Here we had sequential SMT, right? These below, these lows, right? When price took this low right here, and we can go back here and let's see right here, and let's use the for a clearer picture. You can see that right, we did not take this low, right? And this is what we highlighted. We did not take this low in the Nasdaq. Also, we did not take this low. So here, I love this new mouse. Like it doesn't make any noise. Oh my God, it's amazing. It clicks for annoying. We're going to lie. So here, right, between this week and this week, what do you see? We did not take this week, the low of this week. Up. Am I correct? Yes. So this was, you know, what created the intermarket sequential SMT. Here you can see that we took this low out, right? But then what makes this more important, right? First of all, at these highs, we had symmetrical highs, right? So this was obvious buy side liquidity, right? What would make price gravitate to that? A two-stage cracking correlation. And for this, right, I'm not even going to give the name for what I'm showing you right now, right? I don't want it out there. Let people try to create a name for it, right? For now, let's introduce it. Anyways, so here we traded below the 50%. Here we traded below the 50%. That's what cleared the failure swing between Tuesday and Thursday of last week. Here, Tuesday and Thursday, you can see that there was a stop run. I like, I just love this because it's like, it's not like I insight stuff, right? And remember, this was a drawn could be. So here, between Tuesday, between Wednesday and Thursday, right, we had a stop run and price rushed higher. Here we did not get that stop, right? But what makes this amazing is the fact that here, between this one, this high, what do you see? We did not go below the 50%. Anyone, like, any light bulbs turning on? No, yet. So here, we did not go below the 50%. But here, remember, we talked about this. Do you remember we talked about this? I'm pretty sure that you did remember, right? And then what happened? Expansion. So everything here has to happen for price to expand. It's perfect. It will repeat. But it takes time for, you know, price to do things like this due to the fact that we have to have all these highs form, right? And then we have to have that time of low probability perception, then we have price trade below this low, create intermarket sequential SMT, trade back higher, break market structure, trade lower, then we have that second stage which pushes price above this high. So this right here, you should pay attention to. No one will understand this, right? You, I can post this right now on, they won't understand. First of all, it's going to be like, what is this? Why this happening? Like, this doesn't even make sense. Premium and discount, mirror premium and discount, right? Listen, it's not that it's just mirror premium discount. What, what else is it? What led to this even making sense? And this is how you can just be like, oh, the interest rate tribe, it's suggesting higher prices. The interest rate tribe is suggesting lower prices. Whenever you have things like this, remember, this is why I expected this market to go higher. But I expected this to occur because this didn't even happen yet. But we'll talk about that another time. And remember, right now, the market is not even high probability. And do you know why that is? And people like, oh, you know, for the last week, they've been saying it's not. What do you want me to do? Lie to you? I'm not going to lie. When it's high probability, it's easy to trade. Then it's evident in the market, right? Whenever you look at the markets and it feels as if, you know, you're getting a headache, then you just step away. Do something else that you, you know, you're good at something else that you like to do. Find a hobby, read a book, right? If you're seasoned, you've been doing this for a very long time, then you know every condition may be easy for you to navigate within. But until you can look at the chart and it's just there, just like how this was just there, you do nothing until Wednesday, right? I'll be updating the charts, sending charts, and doing other things, right, to ensure that I get this information over to you, right, as swiftly as I can, smoothly as I can, to make sense, right? Looking at your questions, trying to apply it to the lessons, and yeah, pretty much that's it for now. This week. So until we talk again, have a wonderful evening.
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All you want me is a break.
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Ob session. I am the working the tent on burning the stream. How many times can I ask you? How many days can I go without you? Show, show.
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Ting.
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Kill fire.
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The key of imposition. How many days can I go with.
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Sure.
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