Transcription
We know the monetary measurement of silver says it could go ridiculous on the upside, or at least seemingly ridiculous. Go to 500 bucks. Our assumption is that it will occur very quickly, meaning within a couple quarters, probably. Well, our clock began when, after the close of November. That's when the spread broke out. So this Jan, Feb, March, April, May. Okay, maybe another month or so. I don't know. But, you know, there's a couple quarters, let's call it, maybe three, but dramatically. And not go from here to, let's say, 3 to 500 over 3 years. It will have a tantrum.
>> Welcome to in it to win it. This is Steve Barton, and thank you for tuning in. Today's guest is Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael's been in the financial world since 1975 and has spent decades developing a momentum-based approach to technical analysis that sets his work apart from traditional charting. Founding MSA in 1992, he's become well known for identifying major turning points across commodities, stocks, bonds, and currencies by focusing on momentum and trend changes. Michael, thank you for coming back on the show.
>> Good to be back, Steve.
>> Good to have you, sir. Um, okay, I'll open it up to you. Uh, macro view of what's going on right now. What, um, you got the floor. Where, where do you, where do you want to start?
>> I love it. There's a lot of confusion because everybody thinks that today's headline is the be all and end all of markets.
Take you back a year, January through April of last year. S&P had made a high, I think, in February, just short of 6,200. Okay. Now, our recent low was 6,300 and something. Okay. But anyway, 6,200, and then suddenly the new president says, 'Tariffs!' Oh, gosh. A word that hadn't been thought about for years, you know, and uh, the market puked. Okay.
Well, we put out a sell in January, I think it was, and we said that probably going to be a bounce point around 4,800. Yeah. Yeah. There you go. Yeah. But there was a headline. Okay. It wasn't a headline before.
And then when Trump came out in the mid-April and made a statement that, 'Oh, well, we're going to put a 90-day pause on this,' everybody partied. They said, 'Oh, boy, the nightmare is over.' Well, it really wasn't, but he put a pause on it. Okay, look at the, look at what happened. Right back up.
Okay, so those who sold the dark news got killed, and those who got stopped out of their long S&P position, whatever. You know, we argued then it was not a place to be as an investment anyway, but you got whipsawed and went both ways and ended up back where it was early that year, and then ultimately went higher another 10 or 12% or so.
And then where you got that arrow now, first of March, a new headline. And by the way, you're in that upper part there where we're starting to roll over and pause, you know, going back to September, let's say, of uh, last year, the headline about tariffs abated.
>> Yeah.
They weren't front and center anymore. Yeah, they were still being talked about, but it, it wasn't like some dark cloud that's going to kill us all. Okay. And, and so it sort of dissipated.
And then they got a new headline in March. Oh, boy. A new dark headline. Oil's going up forever, and uh, you know, we're all going to die, we have a depression, whatever, you know, all these ramifications.
And so everybody sold, and of course then everybody who sold, at least if they sold late in that March selloff, uh, got rammed pretty good because we're back up to 6,800 now, you know. So anyway, easy come, easy go. Uh, yeah, look at those, those little bars there. Isn't that cute?
>> You got short based on the news, you got killed.
But meanwhile, don't be happy that that news story, let's say, abates or sort of dissipates over the next month or two or whatever, and you say, 'Oh, everything's good again.' Well, maybe there's other big fundamentals at play here in the stock market, not just the tariffs that came and went all of a sudden. Nobody expected them. And then the war, there are bigger fundamentals at play and there bigger technicals at play.
So, we view, we view this recent break in the S&P. In fact, going back to November, we were saying, 'Hey, uh, no, no, excuse me, not November, back up. Um, prior to the March selloff anyway, in in early 2026, we were saying, hey, you needed to have a rally. You needed to get back up near the highs.'
And sure enough, we, we've had that. We've had that rally now. Now, maybe there's more to it. I wouldn't surprise me.
>> Uh, and also, maybe it'll hold up here for a while, and put everybody to sleep. 'Oh, we're comfy again.' Okay, let that next headline, it was tariffs, then it dissipated. Now the Iran war, it'll dissipate.
And suddenly, you're left with the underlying longer term reality of the fundamentals and of the long-term technicals that we watch. And they argue to us, especially the technicals, that we are in a topping process, have been since early last year when we got up above 6,000. And even the extension up here to 77,000 we got to this year. Uh, we still think it's a laborious year-long topping process, and that's what we've been seeing.
Similar behavior occurred back in 2000.com top. There's a whole year of labor up there. You know, you didn't collapse. And the .com hit in uh, you know, early 2000. Uh, you didn't go down until really early 2001.
>> Yeah.
Really didn't start down till then. It was a whole year of labor.
>> This is a weekly chart, so every bar is a week.
Look how laborious that was. How many weeks were involved in that topping, teasing up, down, up, down, and then finally it went down, without even a crash. There was never really what you could call a crash in that whole two-year process. And yet, we were looking at S&P, but if you looked at NASDAQ 100, it dropped 82%. Okay, but anyway, it was a laborious topping process.
Same happened in 2007. Uh, in late 2006, we argued that uh, then the S&P was 6,400, if I'm not mistaken. Um, um, no, no, excuse me, 144, 1400. Uh, we said S&P is probably going to peak next year, 2007, between 1550 and 1600. And well, it took a long time, but it finally peaked at 1575 area, right in the middle of our target zone.
But it, that was uh, October, so it was 10 months after we argued a topping process was starting. And even then, after you topped and dropped some, you came back up again in the spring of the next year, 2008. Uh, yeah, that rally after that first break, you'll see a rally that you dropped into early 2008, and then it came back up again, and in that rally in March, uh, May of 2008. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Yeah. There you go. But it was laborious.
>> Yeah.
The point, and there was no dark headline. The dark headlines came later, like a year later, October of 2008, after the October 2007 high, and that's when the big short guys smiled. You know, you remember the movie. Okay.
>> Oh, yeah.
Uh, they knew in 2005 and six that there was uh, something going on here. Okay. And yet everybody ignored it, laughed, and the Fed ignored it and laughed, but it happened. But the headline didn't hit you in 2007. And the headline hit in summer and fall of 2008. Way off the high.
>> Yeah.
So we think we're going to top now because of Iran war. No. No. Iran war is a come-and-go event, just like the tariffs were. Even though the tariffs still lasted, they ceased to be a financial headline. Okay.
Uh, anyway, I think that's where we are now. We're in that laborious process, and we were not going to go down on a war event, and that's we had technical reasons to argue, don't follow this decline. It is not going to last. You're going to have a rally, and sure enough, we're having the rally.
Uh, I suspect in the next several months we'll head back down again. But hopefully, and probably without headlines. The headlines will come later, like, you know, maybe several quarters later before you say, 'Oh, my, now I understand why,' you know, that's the way markets move. Uh, very rarely does a headline mark the beginning or the end of something.
>> Okay, so you see the stock market topping out, uh, kind of a rolling, uh, uh, pattern like we saw in 2000 and like we saw again in 2008. You see something similar.
Panning out, we're seeing that fact, you know, I think we've been seeing that. And uh, so you've had the tariff sell off, okay, and the guys who got skeptical on that said, 'Oh, but gee, that didn't work.'
>> Hm.
And then you had the war sell off. If that doesn't work as a downside trigger, which it's not so far, uh, then they'll pretty soon they'll think, 'Hey, we're immune to anything.' No, you're not.
But anyway, uh, yeah, we expect a major market decline to commence. Uh, probably be evident by uh, later this summer, maybe something like that. Uh, but even quite often you'll get well off the high before the average guy realizes, 'Gee, you know, this is for real.' Yeah. Okay. All right.
We've got a lot of questions here. There's no way we can get to all of them. I'm going to try to combine some of them here. Less, uh, n, um, Kevin, um, okay, gold and silver. Uh, you're, you're mentioning that you think that it will become obvious to the general public that the stock market is rolling over and going down probably by summer. Uh, you've recently in interviews been stating that um, you think that um, gold and silver are probably going to reach uh, new peaks in uh, summertime. Is that some of your logic? You've thrown out numbers like $3 to $500 silver by summer. Is that, am I, I don't want to miss.
>> Yes, I still assess that. Uh, I think that the break we had mostly in one day, January 31st, last day of the month of January. Most of the break occurred then. 90% of it came one day. Uh, and since then, if you'll stand back and look like at a monthly chart of gold or silver, it's really violent sideways, in a in a wide range for silver, a less wide range for gold, but it's just really been net sideways. Uh,
>> Uh, daily chart of gold. Okay.
Daily. Yeah.
>> This is this is the day you're talking about here, the peak.
Yeah. That, that big day, and then there was some follow-through on the first day of February, but basically most of the break occurred in two days.
>> Yeah.
You know, back there, two big red candles here. Uh, and then since then, you can draw a line sideways and, and you know, you know, you're short, you're winning. Oh, suddenly I'm not winning. You're long. Oh, it got stopped out.
First off, we argue that the market drop in January was likely to occur. We thought it might occur later, like in April or so. Uh, based on our timing assumptions about this, this major surge in the monetary metals, we define it as having commenced really big time in November of last year for silver. That was a, our final long-term buy signal. If you got a silver chart somewhere.
>> Uh, boom. There we go.
Go to a, yeah, a weekly would be better. Best if you could do that.
>> Okay. Weekly. Done.
Yeah. Okay. In the last several years, we put out three major long-term-based technical buy signals. One was back in um, 2024 after silver dropped down. Let's see. That would be, yeah. 24. April of 24. Yeah. Yeah. In 24 we were coming up. See the ceiling there at about 26 bucks for.
>> Uh, Yeah. Yeah. Well, when we came up there in March of that year, just to right of where you were then,
Uh, we said we're going to break out. We didn't wait for the breakout, which was means taking out 26 or 27, but we said, and we got up in the 25, 26 zone, said, 'Okay, the market's going to start to accelerate now.' Okay, that was at 30, uh, to, excuse me, about 25 to $26 zone. Okay, market.
>> 24, 25, 26 bucks.
Then we had that first surge, got up to 30 something again, right in the middle of the 50-year range, you know, silver.
And in the sharp drop in June of uh, 2020. No, in April, May of 20. Yeah, right there. That drop there. When we turned up out of that hole, we said you get back up into the 34, 35 zone, and it had already been over 35 twice in the prior year. But that in June of 2025, it was coming up through 34 again. And we said, 'Okay, next major buy signal.' Okay, that's our second one.
The third one occurred in November of last year. November of last year, price was closed that month at 56 bucks. 56 and check. Yeah, that, that bar.
>> That was not based on the momentum of silver. That was based on a spread relationship between silver and gold. Meaning you plot an ounce of silver, divide it into an ounce of gold, express it as a percent. And at that point when we plotted that chart, silver was breaking through a massive ceiling of prior spread relationships to gold. And it said, 'Oh, I'm going to accelerate against gold.'
Well, in the past when that has occurred, like in the mid-79 to 80 surge or in the 2002, 2011 surge in silver, both of which peaked at 50. In the midpoint of those sharp advances, the spread broke out, meaning silver said, 'Hey, I'm beating gold now.' Okay. I'm no longer the dog. And
>> This is that point you're talking about right here is for.
Yeah. Yeah.
>> 10 years it was trading in this range.
Actually, we had another one at a lower level, too. But that's okay. Uh, but at $56 was therefore our last buy signal.
>> Okay. Okay.
And this one was based on the spread relation between silver and gold with the prior knowledge that in the past whenever you have both markets going up, silver and gold, and silver is lagging, but there's a point at which during that trend, silver spread versus gold breaks out in a clear way.
>> Yeah.
Uh, at that point, usually both metals then accelerate, but silver far more than gold. Well, silver went from 56 bucks to well over, you know, 120 in a matter of a couple months.
>> Yeah.
Yes. It pulled back into the 60s briefly two times now. Now we're in the mid-70s, 76 area. Uh, but we're no longer issuing any major long-term buys. If you want to get long now, you're a late comer.
But there is a lot more to come because our analysis of prior such moves in silver, even the ones that were confined in that 50-year depressed price range, four bucks to 50, four bucks to 50 for 50 years. The surges that occurred even within that range lasted a couple quarters and they were usually signaled a couple quarters before the surge ended by the spread breaking out silver versus gold.
Uh, so how do we come up with this 3 to 500 nonsense? Right? Okay, that seems silly. If you go back in history, you'll find other markets that had similar 'I'm out of here' type breakouts where they'd been confined in a price reality for so long, for decades. And suddenly they decided on their own,
Didn't need help from other markets. Copper did this in 2005 to 2006. It had been in a range of monthly price action for decades between 50 cents and a buck 50. Yeah. Over there. See that?
>> Okay. Right here.
Yeah. Yeah. See the surge that occurred. Whoa.
>> Okay. Several quarters. You quadrupled out of that range into a new reality. And with the exception of the real sharp break there that occurred briefly, you lived in a new reality after that. An average price of maybe 350 for decades, you know. Yeah. There. And then there's a new reality up there, three, four times the price level of the old reality.
>> But the movement from the old reality to a new one.
Was a tantrum. And we all know if you've been involved in markets enough when a market gets excessive fundamentally and technically either too high or too low for too long and makes a mistake in doing that. The corrective process is usually excessive the other way. You don't just say, 'Well, I should be here.' No, you, you go beyond where you should be.
So it would not shock to see a multiple range like copper did back then and lead did the same thing except it did it in 2007. I mean, real exciting market, lead, right? Okay, and they did it on their own. It wasn't like, 'Oh, all the metals went up at once.'
Anyway, those were a couple of examples. This copper chart is an example of a market going parabolic into a, a new reality. And so we defined months ago back in November that we're going into a new reality and it's highly likely silver could go to such levels as 3 to 500.
How do we come up with that? Well, you can do it on a simple monetary basis. I think Eric for example has used this in lectures that you know if you take the money supply where it was in 1980 and how much it's increased and silver merely reflected silver was 50 bucks in 1980. Okay. And silver price now reflects the increase in the money supply. Well, you'd be hundreds of dollars. Okay.
There's another way to do it. If you look at a silver chart on a log scale, uh, you've got an arithmetic scale there, but put on ratio scale. Yeah. Ratio scale, uh, going back to the 1970s.
>> Yeah. There's your two peaks. Okay.
And the bottom of the range is down around four bucks. Okay.
>> Yeah.
Yeah. There. Okay. So, you got a range. It's what, what's the difference between the highs and the lows? About a tenfold.
>> Yeah.
Plus. Okay. You break out of that range and do a swing objective of it. A simple price chart technique.
>> And it's just gee, I go to 500 bucks.
Okay. 10-fold. You know, break out of the range, go 10-fold. Okay. Uh, don't be shocked by it.
And we also know that in the last four or five years fundamentally, and this is something we don't keep up with because frankly the fundamentals are often lagged in creating the reality. But silver supply demand has been in deficit. You know, the new new silver versus the demand is has been in consistent deficit for like five years now. They can't produce enough silver. Uh, and we have strong industrial demand. Uh, used to be it was for photographs. Remember that? I don't know if you remember that far back or not. Uh, and then now it's solar development around the world, uh, in the photovayic cells is silver, uh, and it's also in the AI generation stuff, you know, the the big plants are being built and so forth, there's a lot of silver in that.
Anyway, that's not our issue, but we know these factors are out there. We know the monetary measurement of silver says it could go ridiculous on the upside, or at least seemingly ridiculous, go 500 bucks.
Uh, our assumption is that it will occur very quickly, meaning within a couple quarters, probably. Well, our clock began when? After the close of November, that's when the spread broke out. So this Jan, Feb, March, April, May, okay, maybe another month or so. I don't know. But, you know, there's a couple quarters, let's call it, maybe three, but dramatically. And not go from here to, let's say, 3 to 500 over 3 years. It will have a tantrum.
>> It's already showing some signs of a tantrum here. You can look at the chart.
Yeah.
Anyway, so that's the reality we see, and we're only uh, you know, on the clock maybe halfway through that process, and quite often what happens in the latter part of that couple quarter explosion is where most of the price increase occurs.
>> Okay. So you're um, you're basically seeing that you're looking back at past price action, uh, of which you've seen it in lead, you've seen it in copper. Um, when we got that uh, ratio breakout from uh, silver to gold, uh, which also coincided with the price breakout, that was kind of a double whammy.
>> Um.
Yeah.
I guess it wouldn't be unheard of if it did the same thing as copper and it did the same thing as lead has done before.
>> Um.
And there's underlying monetary factors as well. People forget that silver is not just an industrial metal. It behaves like gold. A lot of people like to think of silver as an industrial metal. Therefore, oh, it goes up and down in recessions.
Well, first off, that's not true. And secondly, commodities can go up during recessions as the late '7s proved to us at other times as well, you have a global recession and commodities explode. Okay.
Uh, the key factor underlying silver I think is monetary. The industrial is a side side event, important but not not the primary, and when gold goes up, silver goes up. The issue is which one goes up more and faster, and silver has been lagging and now it is not, and I don't think it will lag in the next several quarters as well. You'll see more drama there than you will in gold on the upside.
>> Okay. All right. Well, I got to say uh, from our last talk, um, you uh, we did with premium subscribers, we took some leaps on silver miners. Those worked out quite well. So, thank you for that. Uh, maybe it's time to take some more.
>> Yeah, I think the congestion zone is done on the downside. Words, we had this violent range and about a month ago or three weeks ago, we put out a report and we suggested that hey, you know, the February low on gold was 4223. We said, 'You know, it's too obvious. Let's go take it out and run some stops, some more stops.'
Words. Anybody who bought late on silver or gold didn't buy it at 30 or 25 or 30 or 50 or they bought it silver at 110, let's say, and and bought gold at uh, 5,200. They got bagged. Okay.
But there was that low in February that we held above all in March and finally we started to approach it again with the war event. We said, 'Take it out. Run the stops.' And if you look at the hourly action, the day we ran those stops, it spent like two hours or so below the February low and then right back up again. Both silver.
>> You're talking about this bar right here, right?
Yeah. That bar right there. See, one day took out the Feb low.
>> Here's the hourly chart. So, yeah,
It literally was.
>> 90 minutes or something and then we're back up to.
Yeah, that low was 4223. So the prior, the FB low. So it literally was a couple hours below it and then you immediately said, 'I'm back above it.' Same with silver. It's low had been like 66, went down to like 61 something.
>> Yeah.
And look at the low to your left there. The FB low. Yeah. That right there. And see look what' you spend an hour or two below it.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Maybe 75 minutes.
Just enough to sting everybody out.
>> Yeah.
And then you pop back up. And the, you know, I suspect that was the low.
>> Okay. Now, the issue is, okay, how long is it going to take us to get up and make it clear to investors that, okay, we're going up again?
>> Yeah.
Obviously, go back to the high, everybody's going to realize it. That's an idiot level. Okay.
>> Yeah.
But if you looked at gold on a close-only basis, the mama market, daily closes,
>> Just the closes, if you can do that,
>> Uh,
Continuation chart. Now, I don't know if you got April or a continuation here, but there was a high close back in January that was at 5,300 plus high daily close just prior to the big bloody down day. Okay.
>> Okay.
It was a high close right there. 5,300 and change. Okay. Then you drop down, then you come back up and in March on a continuation basis, you had another close that was above 5,300. So on a close-only basis, you basically eliminate the highs and lows. Look only at the closes. You got two peak closes above 53.
>> I'll tell you what, you ever get back above 53 again, it's not going to stop this time.
>> Okay?
And it's definitely not a top for the people who have to see a price chart evidence of that. So that's a level that will wake them up. We've already had momentum levels that have been crossed that suggest that was the low we just saw, and we're on our way back up.
And for silver, the level that's important for price chart guys now, not momentum, is getting above 90 because you'll see after the Jan break, you've had three rallies that probed up over 90.
>> Yeah.
Right after the break, there was a rally that got above 90. Then there was that rally there. There's one got above 90. Got above 90. And then go over to your right a little more. And that that got above 90 too on that day. It traded there early March.
>> And then then you went down.
So you three times you've posted action above 90. Don't go back there a fourth time.
>> Forget the the the isolated high over there. You get back over 90 again and says, 'Hey, I'm coming through this time. I'm persistent.'
>> Okay. Okay.
Clearly persistence is what that says.
>> Yeah. There is something about when price action just kind of taps on a level multiple times.
>> Yeah.
It's almost like it weakens it. You know what I mean? Like, like it just taps and, and the shorter the distance, uh, of the tap, kind of like we saw when oil broke down from the 65 level, you know, it was, it's almost like a bouncing ball that's kind of losing momentum and then it falls off, you know?
>> Yeah.
That uh.
>> Okay. Uh, we also got a lot of questions, not surprisingly, on oil. Um, I've got too many here that I could read off, but uh, thank you to everyone that submitted your questions. Uh, so let's go here to the oil chart. Uh, we got WTI Brent. Uh, we can what? Uh, just thoughts on.
>> WTI is a good one.
That's a good one. We got bullish on oil. We've been monitoring oil as a likely upturn market for over a year now. And if you look what happened after the 2022 high, which is the onset of a war, by the way, Ukraine oil peaked at like 130.
>> Oops. Oh, I'm on log here. There we go.
Yeah, there you go. Back in 2022. So when the war started there, oil peaked.
>> Yeah.
And you went down and you lived mostly above 60, but then late in that process in 2025, you got down in the mid-50s.
>> Yeah.
Well, that's, you know, half less than half the price of the peak that occurred then and a very low price for oil going back decades even. So it was very cheap. And you can see that the downside pressure just dissipated.
>> Yeah. In 2020, you see a lot of little bars there that are just doing nothing. Okay. Yeah.
Well, when you came up out of that hole in the January close, we got above 63. That was our buy signal, getting above 63 in January, and we closed above that month above it. At that point, we put out a major long-term buy signal on oil saying, 'Okay, bull trend has commenced.'
>> Yeah. Well, the war started a couple of months later, but I mean oil was already turning up in January and February was higher and then of course the news hit.
Yeah. So, what we think about oil is yes, it is in a bull trend, but do not buy into this wartime headline rally. You're likely to get bagged.
Well, even the other day, you got bagged pretty good. I mean, most of the people who bought high are break even at best. Okay. Yeah, you know who chased the headlines.
>> Yes, oil we think is going up. The whole commodity complex is our buy signal for Bloomberg commodity index was back in October. Oil was a lagard this time. Uh, and I think the entire commodity complex including oil are headed much higher over the next couple years.
They will be the preferential place to be in terms of what category should I be in the stock market? No. Unless you're buying stocks that are related to commodities, oil related stocks, which again I would not buy now. I would wait for a break. Uh, grain related stocks, fertilizer companies, uh, base metal miners and so forth. Obviously the monetary metals, but that's that's ahead of the game. They're much stronger than the commodity complex.
Um, but oil is a got exaggerated on a news event and therefore yes we're bullish on oil but no you should not buy it here. You should have bought it in January.
The close that month was 65 bucks. Okay. I don't think you're going to see that level again. It wouldn't shock me if you get back down in the 80s or so though which would clean out all the headline chasers. And at that point, maybe oil will then resume without a headline as a driving emotional factor.
>> Okay. We did the same thing you did and got long oil before the war. And so we've been um, selling covered calls, which have been kind of nice uh, now that I could see the future and that our oil stocks have come off the uh, come off the top. I guess I wish I would have just sold the stocks outright, but uh,
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, I guess. Um, but yeah, I, I, I, I, I couldn't push the buy button up here on uh, oil stocks. I think sometimes you just miss it. You know what I mean? Like if if you weren't in before then, then then well, there's always something else.
No, you, it's sometimes you get news rallies like this. They're totally false and will totally fail.
And sometimes they actually occur within the context of a genuine uptrend. In that case, this case is what we've got. I think oil is in a genuine uptrend. I think it's going to the old highs 130, 140 and so forth. They're going to be gone, you know, probably within a year.
Uh, and it won't be a war event that causes it. It'll be just one commodity assets are cheap in relation to other assets. If you measure it, you could take Bloomberg and divide it into the S&P and go back decades and say, 'My goodness, it's free. Commodities are free.' Okay?
And oil is cheap in relation to everything, including its own history. Um, it doesn't need a wartime excuse to go up any more than commodities do.
Uh, it's just and also whenever the stock market starts to bleed in a way that upsets investors and so far it hasn't because look where we are. We're 6,800. We're literally a couple hundred points from the high in the S&P. Okay. So Betty's happy again.
Um, but when money does flow out of that broken asset category, which I think you'll start to see more so as we get into late summer especially, um, it goes somewhere and it's already been going into gold and silver. They're beating the pants off of the stock market for the last several years and including this year so far.
In fact, if you look at just the first quarter of the year, you see this big drop in silver from the January high of gold, silver, gold, gold miners, and silver miners on either side of 7% gain in the first quarter measured from the December close last year. The S&P at the close of March was down about 67% on the year, totally opposite them.
So uh, despite the seeming synchronicity of their trends on a day-to-day basis sometimes, uh, don't expect that to continue because even on the bigger trend it is certainly not in sync. Okay. Uh, gold has been a good place to be and so silver and the miners for the last couple years really versus the stock market and that will continue.
>> Okay. Um, I also want to give a quick shout out here to your call on the um, on the Bloomberg commodity index. I uh, was able to uh, play that and uh, it was a nice little profit you put out uh, I believe it was around here.
650 crossing that in October. Yes.
>> Yeah. Yeah. It was around uh, 107, 108. I can't remember the exact level, but anyways, you put you put one out like there.
>> Yeah. And uh, that was been an amazing run. Wonderful call, sir, in a short period of time too.
What, what is this weekly or daily?
>> Uh, this is daily. I can go weekly.
Much of that move had already occurred before the March event, the war.
>> Yeah.
Okay. So oil did contribute in the tail end of that Bloomberg surge. Now oil components, you know, heating oil, gasoline, crude oil, etc. They comprise a, a reasonable percent of the Bloomberg, but they're not overly heavily weighted.
Bloomberg's pretty well balanced. You got the grains, you got base metals, you got sugar, cocoa, and stuff like that. So, it's pretty well diversified.
But even with that war move already, the Bloomberg had hit up into the high 120s before that even occurred.
>> Yeah.
Okay. After being a buy signal at 10650 when it closed above that level in October.
So it wasn't just oil in other words, and I think this trend is is uh, emerged now and I think we're probably going a lot lot higher particularly in relation to the stock market. So if you want to where do I move my assets and you don't want to own commodities raw you know like futures ETFs on wheat futures which I own and corn and copper etc. Uh, own the companies that are related there too grain related base metal related and on a good break oil related.
Okay, awesome. Yes, thank you very much, Michael. Uh, since uh, getting your newsletter, I uh, I I make a lot more money. So, thank you for your contributions there. We got more questions. We're going to get into uranium cash and some other ones with premium subscribers. But if people want to follow your work, uh, how can they do so?
>> oliversa.com. MSA for momentum structural analysis. Take your time on the site. Uh, we explain our unorthodox methodology in some depth, uh, not too much depth, but you know, enough for you to get a understanding and uh, ask for some sample reports.
>> Awesome. Thank you very much. We'll put your links down below. Uh, thanks for coming back on the show, Michael. Thanks.
>> All righty, guys. Well, thank you for being here. If you want the full conversation, the premium site is where we go deeper into cash, uranium, copper, agriculture, precious metals, mining stocks, and the sectors. Michael believes offer the biggest opportunities from here. And when you become a premium member, you're not just getting the rest of this interview. You're getting premium only segments, deeper dives, and member-driven questions that help shape future content. And one more thing, we've got our Easter discount right now. Our golden egg giveaway, but it expires this Sunday, April 12th. So, if you want in, now is your time. Click the link below, join premium, and I will see you on the inside.