Transcription
Josh, welcome back to this course on US-China relations past, present, and future. We have just finished week three of the course and maybe have tried to dissect the structural forces that are now at play in the US-China relationship. It's very obvious that some kind of major geopolitical contest has broken out between US and China. And if you read the speeches given even recently by American leaders like Trump, Pence, Pompeo, they portray China as a great threat to the United States and to the world. And they actually keep claiming that China is now emerge as an aggressive power and that China, as it becomes more powerful, will become as militaristic as other great powers. And this is a claim they make consistently.
But [snorts] if you look at China from your perspective, given the long history of Chinese civilization, do you think the West is right in believing that when China becomes powerful, it'll behave the same way as Western powers did, use its military, conquer territories, become an imperial power? What does Chinese history tell us about how China will behave as a great power?
>> The Chinese have thought through the implications of their own rise >> Mhm. >> very deeply and over a long period of time. Deng Xiaoping told his own people, >> Mhm. >> "Keep a low profile. Hide your shine." >> Mhm. >> Because he knew that sooner or later China's reemergence >> Mhm. >> will create countervailing forces and it's best to defer it for as long as possible. That's in China's interest and that's in the interest of the major powers. Because if major powers press upon China before it was strong then it could easily lead to a new conflict like during the Korean War. Then China would have to fight prematurely. But if that fateful contest were to be deferred China would be much stronger it could better manage conflict so that wars become unnecessary. The Chinese view of warfare is avoided whenever possible. If you have to fight it means you're not a good strategist. So even though Sun Tzu Bing Fa, The Art of War, is not a classified text it is the single most important document to understand Chinese strategic thinking and the thinking on warfare. And the Chinese are not um a missionary power. It is an arrogant civilization. It doesn't believe that anybody else can become like them. And that if you are Chinese then you can be governed using Confucianist principles and you could have peace on Earth and a very productive economy.
Today China which is bigger than the US slightly >> [snorts] >> is over 90% Han. Is this an accident? Is it because uh China could not have incorporated more non-Han people into its realm? No. The reason why China is over 90% Han because it wants homogeneity. And because the Han people have no inferiority complex with respect to the minorities, >> Mhm. >> so they very often treat the minority groups with benign neglect, >> Mhm. >> which is the reason why beneath their noses >> Mhm. >> there's this problem of Islamic terrorism >> Mhm. >> because they had ignored >> Mhm. >> what was happening in the western region. Now they found out they've got to act with double quick time and maybe there's an overreaction. >> Mhm. >> But but they are no longer >> Mhm. >> uh they are no longer taking the attitude that they did >> Mhm. >> uh in the past. But they have no wish to to go around telling Laotians and Bruneians and Singaporeans how we should govern ourselves >> Mhm. >> because they know how difficult it is for they themselves to govern themselves. >> Mhm. >> It's it's very different from uh the American approach, which is it's a manifest destiny. >> Mhm. >> Yeah, these are western values. >> Mhm. >> These are universal values. >> Mhm. >> And therefore values which you would naturally want to imbibe >> Mhm. >> if when you are free. They're given a choice, our values will be your values. >> Mhm. >> And it was addictive. >> Mhm. >> I think for a whole generation the Asian dream was America. >> Mhm. >> Many of us studied there, >> Mhm. >> whether consciously or subconsciously >> Mhm. >> the vocabulary, the the intellectual constructs, >> Mhm. >> the view of history, and then we look at ourselves through western prisms. >> Mhm. >> And the western media, of course, became very important. >> Mhm. >> But the rise of China because it has a different starting point and a different world view with huge consequences. >> Mhm. >> In the US in the last 3 years the mood has turned so dramatically toxic. >> Mhm. >> It's almost unbelievable. And for many of us, it's painful because we used to be able to talk about China >> Mhm. >> in a very relaxed and calm way with our American friends. >> Mhm. >> Today, they are so prickly. And we are very careful what we say in order not to cause offense, >> Mhm. >> sometimes at the risk of >> Mhm. >> not telling the whole truth because the whole truth will cause offense and rupture relationships. >> Mhm. >> That's the sad state we are in. >> Mhm. >> But it had its origin much earlier. >> Mhm. >> I would say from the Obama days, >> Mhm. >> the pivot to the east, >> Mhm. >> the pivot to the western Pacific. >> Mhm. >> Uh the their strategic thinkers >> Mhm. >> were already viewing China as an increasingly grave threat >> Mhm. >> to US dominance in the world. >> Mhm.
The one one of the points that is constantly being used, especially in the last 3 years when you say that when things have become very toxic, is that the Americans claim that because China is run by the Chinese Communist Party, and they keep emphasizing that they are only opposed to the Chinese Communist Party, but not opposed to the people. Uh [snorts] my in my view, I think they they they completely misunderstand uh China because as as a Harvard Kennedy School study has pointed out, the Chinese Communist Party actually enjoys the support overwhelming support of the Chinese people today. So, how how do you try to persuade an American audience that they're making a huge mistake when they keep emphasizing trying to make [snorts] a distinction within the Chinese Communist Party and the people of China?
>> The idea of a political party >> Mhm. >> is a western idea. >> Mhm. >> The Chinese Communist Party >> Mhm. >> is not a Western political party. >> Mhm. >> China If I can go back. >> Mhm. >> China had the most stable system in the world for 2,000 years governing at any one time quarter or fifth of humanity. >> Mhm. >> In one centralized administration. >> Mhm. >> And every dynasty had to do two things. >> Mhm. >> First, he had to maintain the dynastic line. >> Mhm. >> You know, if you watch Chinese dramas, the most interesting dramas are what happens in the harem. What they call the inner palace, the Neigung. >> I see. >> The Neigung has only one objective. >> Mhm. >> Which is to produce a male heir. >> Mhm. >> Only one objective, to produce a male heir. >> Mhm. >> For the governance of the empire, >> Mhm. >> you needed officials, clever people selected by examinations, >> Mhm. >> who understood moral principles, >> Mhm. >> and who did the right things. >> Mhm. >> Now, you had the 1911 revolution. >> Mhm. >> You tried to bring in political parties. It didn't work. >> Mhm. >> Then you have the Communist Party. Tens of millions of members. Really really to replace the palace continuity. Beyond that, yes, you have administration. >> Mhm. >> But ultimate political power and how it's transmitted in China >> Mhm. >> is a question which is still being debated in China because with the end of imperial China, >> Mhm. >> which to me led to the greatest revolution the world ever seen >> Mhm. >> from 1911 all the way to the Great Cultural Revolution, >> Mhm. >> China has got to resolve this question. >> Mhm. >> How do you transmit ultimate political power? >> Mhm. >> In a legitimate way. >> Mhm. >> And right now it is a communist party. >> Mhm. >> And it can't just be a means to hold power. It needs moral principles. >> Mhm. >> It needs legitimacy. >> Mhm. >> Which is why they will never repudiate Marx, Lenin, and Stalin. >> Mhm. >> Because in that history is their legitimacy. >> Mhm.
Yeah, then and this this actually brings up one of the critical points that is often raised by Americans and now they admitted openly. >> [snorts] >> They say that when the United States engaged China, uh their goal was to open up China economically first and then after opening up China economically first, then it would they would then China would be opened up politically. And in fact, two officials whom I think you whom you know well, Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner have published an article in the magazine Foreign Affairs explaining why the US was disappointed that China didn't open up its political system after China opened up its economy. And as they also indicate that that explains uh the bipartisan support in the US today for this confrontation against China and the feeling is China let us down. China didn't become uh uh democratic. So, how how does one try to persuade uh uh the Americans that this was a very unrealistic expectation because America at the end of day is less than 250 years old with 1/4 of China's population. How did Why did Americans believe that they could transform uh China? So, how do you address that widespread belief in the United States that China has disappointed America by not becoming democratic?
>> Well, because there is an endearing idealism >> Mhm. >> uh in the American view of themselves and of the founding principles. That these principles are universal and that they should be spread to the world for their benefit. So, there are many Americans who honestly hope that China will become more and more like America. Many foster families who help look after Chinese students and really hoping that one day they'll be like like Americans and bring American thinking, values, hopes into China. Uh but of course there are also Americans who don't see it that way, who see in power terms. So, thinkers from the European tradition like Kissinger understood that you can't change China. That China has its own deep nature and all change must be founded within that deep nature. You can only do a delta X. You can't change the X, which is what you inherited from the past. So, there's this bipolarity in in American thinking, which leads to this oscillation between wanting to help China and then demonizing China. Uh it will continue and it's part of the drama. I think the Chinese understand this and they're trying their best to manage this this process.
>> You You met Kissinger many times, I believe, and you must know him. And I My My sense is that uh at least when I had lunch with him uh one-on-one, he's very troubled uh at the way the United States has almost gone on almost like a crusade against uh China without having sort of worked out a strategy, you know, on how to manage uh a rising uh China. Uh do you think um someone like him can are people of his type can come back and bring back a more realistic policy of United States towards China?
>> Just as China should not blame the world for what it was in the 19th century. The West >> suffered the century of humiliation, yeah. >> Yes, during the century of humiliation. >> Yeah. >> But the deep causes were internal. So, I don't think it behooves the West to be blaming China for their own problems. Because if the West recovers its vitality becomes creative, idealistic productive again then they can manage China. Now, Kissinger when he wrote his book on China many Chinese who read it, particularly the first chapter felt, "Ah, here is a Westerner who understands us. He's able to put his mind into our minds." But Kissinger is also worried about the rise of China and what this means for the West. And I remember in the an interview he gave to the Financial Times, he said "If we fail China will become the teacher of the world." Now, he didn't say that the greatest outcome would be China being the master of the world or being the hegemon. For him, the worst scenario is of China becoming the teacher of the world, which to many Western people is insufferable.
>> Why? Why so? >> Because if you are proud of your own history of Greece and Rome and your Judeo-Christianity and your great thinkers how can China be our teacher? Mhm. Yes, we can have a seminar. >> Mhm. >> So, they find Chinese preaching sometimes intolerable. I mean, so in Australia recently. >> Mhm. >> Uh I mean, in the cartoon which the Chinese >> Yeah. >> prime minister spokesman >> Yes. >> uh put on his Twitter account. >> Mhm. >> The prime minister found it unacceptable. >> Mhm. >> How can you pass moral judgment on us? >> Mhm. >> The West, of course, is is used to passing moral judgment on China. >> Yes. >> Uh but they do not admit of moral equivalence. >> Mhm. >> No. It's one It's one way. It's not two ways. >> Yeah. >> And they are afraid it may become two-way. >> Mhm. >> And they are terribly almost frightened of it. >> Mhm.
So, one last quick question in 2 minutes or so. You mentioned the West has got to not blame China for its internal weaknesses. What do you think has caused the internal weaknesses in the United States today?
>> Uh that that is as complicated a story as the history of the Qing Dynasty. >> Exactly. >> and it's not it's not an answer which can be given in a minute or two. You will not do justice. You will do grave injustice >> Mhm. >> to to uh to your students. >> Mhm.
Well, I I I At the same time, I hope that our course will also that lead Americans to reflect on whether or not they themselves have their own issues to deal with. I mean, that's part of what we're trying to do with this course, too. But thank you very much. Uh we've had a very good discussion on the many the major misunderstandings that clearly are developing between United States and China. And when we go on to week four, uh we'll be looking at how how will other countries view this contest. And also, what can we do if possible to try and stop this contest from getting out of control. So thank you once again George for appearing on our course. Thank you. >> Thank you.