Transcription
Wow, you can feel it. This June, July period is the decision time for gold. Gold is dancing on the edge of the volcano. We're going to look at the technicals today. We're also going to look at the gold mining stocks and I want to give you a senior producer that nobody's talking about that looks really good for a swing trade if you think gold prices are going higher. Let's get into it.
Welcome to Hot Trades of the Day, your show for swing trading ideas for the coming days, weeks, and month. Hello, my name is Daniel and let's start with some housekeeping. Congratulations to Paraguay defeating the Germans in penalty kicks. And also immediately after, thank you to Morocco for defeating the Netherlands also in penalty kicks. Because let me tell you, if you're German in a year where there's a World Cup or European Cup and you love the Netherlands and Amsterdam as much as I do, not great. When the Germans lose in, well, borderline embarrassing fashion and then the Dutch go far in the tournament. You're going to hear it. Fair enough. You know, the trash talk. That's what it's all about in sports. But I don't have that problem anymore. Also, boy, this heatwave in central Europe, wild. I really hope you are doing your best impression of Ariel the mermaid and or swimming somewhere cool because it is crazy hot and I'm running around in a tie and a shirt. Enough about football and the weather. Let's get to the other hot topic in the markets and that is the precious metals gold with a selloff today in Asian trading.
If you follow this channel, you're familiar with this pattern. I've pointed this out for you for month now. But we are seeing market forces are trying to hold the $4,000 an ounce. We are seeing buying under $4,000. Now the question is now today's the last trading day not only of the month and the quarter but also of the first half of 2026. Are there forces in the market that want to hold gold over 4K until the first half of the year is in the books and then the buying stops. And I've told you before what happens when the buying stops. We're talking about it in correlation with this then support zone right here. And I told you, hey, the problem is the second the buyers are stopping, we're breaking down. We're getting a waterfall selloff. We didn't get the waterfall selloff yet. Let's not be overly dramatic, but we did get a selloff. And that could be in store for gold as well.
So, here's the deal. Depending what you like, if you're an intraday or a daily close person, we made a new intraday low. This is the lowest intraday low since November. So, it's a it's now a sevenmonth low. Now, we haven't made it on the close, but intraday we made a new low. I prefer the daily closes. The intraday are just kind of an indication, but there's always volatility and especially when it comes to important technical markers like 4K for gold. You always have to be a little careful with the intraday developments because as I've said before, institutions usually like to trigger these these specific marks in order to get liquidity grabs to trigger stops and trigger margin calls and then buy up the positions that get liquidated. We see this. I pointed this out with the arrows in the past of the big big tails that we got. Intraday typical very typical liquidity grabs in panic selling. So that's why I'm a little cautious with intraday. It gives us an indication. It gives us an indication that there's weakness in the market.
And the one thing we can say for sure and learn from the past days is what I've said on this channel for now about let's say two weeks. There is no buying in gold. There's no strength in gold. Look at the recent days. You you can't even call this a relief rally. That's a that would be a joke, right? You can call barely call this a relief rally. We had this big sell-off and we we barely made it back to this line that I outlined to you in the past videos. And if you miss the videos, subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any of the videos. And then don't off it. We didn't even make it to 4,215, which was the much more important line in the sand or the downtrend. Not even close. So there is no buying in gold. This is still a weak structure. I like today's candle. But again, because of where we are in the calendar, we should not overemphasize its importance and what it means in the overall structure. The first days of July will be much more telling. what direction gold will go overall.
This is not what I had in mind of what I wanted to see when I was telling you. I think we're going to go below the 200 day moving average, the golden line here in the chart, and break the uptrend, then get a flush sale, a liquidity grab, an undercut, whatever you want to call it. It's all the same. It's like a chart, a candle, a candle that looks exactly like the purple arrows that you see here and then bounce back quickly. What we're seeing now is more downward structure. What I was hoping for and was something like this when we broke the 50-day. We broke the 50-day for the first time, as you can see, since August 2025. And that immediately triggered a massive waterfall selloff that joined us to the 200, right? Then we got these type of panic selling candles that I've been looking for and then we started to move back up. Now eventually we moved back down, but this is the scenario that I was envisioning when I was talking about, hey, what's going to happen when we break this zone? And this hasn't really happened. As you can see, this is a more civilized bare market movement and we need to take this into account.
So unless we're building structure now and we're getting to structure in a minute around 4,000, this indicates now that a yeah, we're definitely getting a flush sale if we break below 4,000 on the close for sure, but it actually might go lower than I would have liked and would have hoped. So adjusting this looking at the past days and how gold is behaving around 4,000. We need to keep money in the back pocket now in our plans that we're going to go down to 3,500 because this is not the panic selling like we had in the in the second green error that you see here after we broke the 50-day which you would think would have happened after the 200. Now we're seeing weakness. Yeah, we we seeing no buying, but we don't see the panic selling. Part of it obviously has to do because we at the important number 4,000 and a lot of the correction is already done. We are in the final stage of the gold correction. Make no mistake about it. But again, how will it look? That is the important factor. And my idea was and my thesis was we're going to get the waterfall set off like we did after we broke the 50. We're going to get the undercut and the liquidity grab and then move back up quickly. Now, this looks more like we're going to get a flush sale. We're going to stabilize and then we're going to move up, which again, if you're a long-term investor like me for gold and the gold miners, kind of the same outcome, but it might take longer. And I want to adjust how I start, how I going to invest in the market accordingly.
And I want to show you historically what I mean. So if we go back to the last bull market in gold which was 20 years ago and if you follow the channel you remember the video I did where I used these golden squares to show you the undercuts of the 200 and that we all it always had them in the correction. ctions almost all. We didn't have it here, but because we're already in advanced stage of the bull market, but anywhere else, we usually have the undercut of the 200. That played out, we undercut the 200. If you missed this video, you'll find it um I'm sure in in the archive somewhere. And again, hit the subscribe button so you don't miss these videos. Now what I want to emphasize here is look how short in the last bull market these undercuts of the 200 were. This one starts on April 1st and it's already over in April 10th. So it's like 10 days. This one starts on April 28th and then reaches this low on March 10th I think it is. Yeah. So that's like two weeks. This one here. Oops. This one here undercuts here and reaches the low on May 31st and starts it on May 12th. So that's about 19 days. So let's say let's call it three weeks. Okay, we're not going to use this undercut because it was a higher low. This was already the low of this whole correction. What do we have here? Breaking the 200 September 29th lowest in October 5th about a week. You see where I'm going with this? the the all the undercuts in the last gold bull market were very fast about a week to three weeks and then the one time where the undercut started to take longer we break the 200 here on August 5th and then make a temporary low on September 10th. So, so about a month that is the one where we get a lower low and this whole thing takes a lot longer than anticipated. It really comes out to about two almost like two month and 3 weeks. And that's what I mean with we're starting to establish ourselves below the 200 and don't just go down quickly for a week maybe maybe a couple of weeks and then right back up. Now we can say okay this part here this second sell off that's obviously financial crisis and this was forced sell off that is true liquidations by funds but it's still the same outcome right so going back to today what does that tell us where do we stand today.
So, we broke the 200 on June 5th and we're obviously at the end of the month now. So we are already at the at the end time period of the the undercuts of the 200 day that we saw in the last bull market. The one time it took longer, we saw a second wave down. We saw a much longer period below the 200. And that is why it's so important to watch out what's happening within the next one to two weeks. Also concerning the earning seasons obviously. But if we don't establish structure now at 4,000 and then get buying interest, we have to assume we're going much lower, maybe even with a double low move that we saw in 2008. We get one flush selloff, then a big rebound, and then a second one. So, we need to factor this in. And that leads us to the stocks.
So before we get to the GDX, obviously the question is, well, what do I think it's going to happen? Well, I think gold is going to go lower. That's what I'm that's what I'm seeing. That's what my interpret interpretation is of the charts. There's really not much buying. I do like that we're holding the 4,000, but it's a round number. It's an important number that is not surprising especially again at the end of the quarter the month and the half year. So I am not putting too much importance on this yet. Now, interestingly enough, just as in yesterday's video with silver, if you look at the gold stocks, they look better in terms of they have not made a new low. Even yesterday, we just talked about uh today gold price making a new intraday low. The mining stocks are not, at least not yet. Let's wait what happens in the US. One of the reasons why the mining stocks have not made it is because, well, they trade in Canada and the US. that market isn't open yet, but since the Asian selloff got bought up, it's hard to envision that we're going to get a massive sell off in a mining stock. So, we did not make a new low. I I'm not This is not the type of structure that I like within the chart. As you can see, we're kind of hanging in the air. Yeah, we're below the upturn. We're below the 200. We're below the support zone. That was important. And there's kind of nothing. Yeah. Okay. There a little there's a little bit of structure that here, but it's not major. So, this doesn't excite me to buy gold stocks right now.
However, I told you it makes sense that especially the seniors are holding up well because money is in the in the equity markets is trying to hide in this earning season from big tech because uncertainty is high and I expect volatility to get quite high. But it is very very interesting to see that the mining stocks are performing better than gold. And here's a senior producer. If you want to get in on a swing trade where I really like the technical setups, it's one that's not nearly as well known as like Newmont or Bareric or Kin Ross, but it's a heavyweight and it's it's called Lundine Mining. If you know anything about mining, you know who the Lundine family is. If not, picture them as like the Peter Teal of the mining sector. These guys really know where to invest. They are one of the most successful mining investors in the world. It's like a 29 billion Canadian company. So, it's big. And look how good it looks compared to the GDX or the gold price. We are above the 200. How many shares can how how many stocks can say that in the mining sector? We're at this double support of the 200 and the low end of this sideways channel. And if I zoom out, then I see, wow, this really just looks like a bull flag. a healthy consolidation after a big move up in 2025 and into 2026 and the uptrend is still intact.
Now again, this is no investment advice. I'm not your financial adviser. You know the drill if you follow the channel. But I like strength, especially when it comes to senior producers. This is serious strength. Now, not everything is perfect here. Obviously, we did lose this uptrend. But the more important factors, the 200 and this support zone still absolutely intact. So, this could be an interesting swing trade. I'm personally not buying right now. I'm not buying gold or I'm not buying miners. I'm sitting back. I'm watching everything like a hog and I starting to see that we are this is very interesting in the mining stocks. I'll leave you with this. We're starting to see a separation of some mining stocks that show high relative strength to the overall mining sector and to the gold price. So, we see money flowing in there or less selling, however you want to word it, it doesn't matter. And those stocks are usually the big winners in the next rally. So, do your homework or watch the channel. We'll talk about some of them. That is it for today. I wish you a great day. Hopefully, it won't be as hot today and not as hot wherever you are. We see us tomorrow. Bye-bye.