Transcription
These 10 players are currently our biggest values, our favorite picks on the board. We have not made a reddraft video yet, and this is going to be the first one that we break down, basically from the lens of best baseball drafts. We're going to go through our favorite 10 players. Each of us has five guys that we're clicking in baseball drafts right now. Obviously, this video brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. You guys can use promo code FSE at signup and first deposit and start drafting some of these players. Any new user will get our draft guides, Dynasty rookie draft guide, reddraft guide, and weekly rankings for free at that signup. That'll be linked down below. Danny, why don't you get get us kicked off with a player that we just argued about for 10, 15 minutes before we started recording in Drake London?
>> Drake London, he's going off the board as the wide receiver 7, 19.1 ADP over on Underdog. And Cory, if you remember going into last year, he was a guy I was all in on. I felt vindicated of it going into week 11 prior to that PCL sprain because he was one of the biggest league winners in fantasy prior to that. 19.7 points per game in that stretch. 16.3 half BPR points per game when we're talking about the Underdog scoring format. And that would have totaled to a top 10 overall flex player, assuming he was able to stay healthy. Unfortunately, he suffers that PCL sprain, misses the next four games, comes back later in the season. Two sub-10 PPPR points game or 10 PPR point games really inflate or deflate his overall points per game on the year. But ultimately, I remember what he was at the midpoint of the year. He was one of the most untradeable assets in fantasy football, and he was one of the biggest reasons why I was able to get puku in the flock league because of how good Drake London was prior to that injury.
>> Yeah. Um, Drake London is just very comfy. I think he's a very easy uh, selection because you don't often get wide receivers who are coming off of back-to-back 2.44, 44 yards per out run seasons despite not having good quarterback play. 29% plus target share. You know, Kyle Pittz had like a huge breakout last season, but a large portion of that came with Drake London either off the field or dealing with that injury as you kind of made reference to. So, we know who the alpha is when he's on the field. It's Drake London. And my only concern, and it's funny because we're like, we had this huge discussion before the show about, "Oh, where where is this guy ran?" He's at the same receiver position, at the same overall position for both of us. I think part of it is that I view him a little bit as a tear break behind a lot of the running backs that go off the board. And a large part of my, let's call it, mehness towards Drake London as far as when I take him, do I feel like I'm getting a league winner? I think he's going to be a very rock-solid 15 to 18 point per game receiver. I just think that when you look at the brass tax of this situation, this is a bottom three to five quarterback situation in the league. And last year, yes, you know, not good quarterback situation either, but at least there was optimism around Michael Penn. Whereas now, I don't think that there's a lot of optimism on Michael Penn. I think people understand he's maybe not that good of a quarterback and he's coming off a major injury. And while Tua's maybe a little better than Kirk Cousins, it's we're we're comparing Kaka versus Pee here.
>> So, I get, you know, not being optimistic with Michael Penn. I fully understand that. But at the same time, volume is volume. We talk about volume at the running back position. Well, Drake London is the volume is king of the wide receiver position. Games of 15 targets, 16 targets, 14 targets, multiple games of 10 plus targets. Hell, when he was healthy, he was basically a lock to finish with eight plus targets. And I don't necessarily view that changing in terms of the context for how this offense is going to operate in 2026. Sure, the overall pass volume might go down, but I would argue that with Drake London, he's still going to be getting the number one manufactured looks. He's still going to be the first read on the majority of their targeted plays. And realistically, going into his age 25 season, why can't he go from a, you know, like I said, 19.7 point per game player? Maybe he wouldn't have finished at that total last year, but can he naturally ascend as a player, take that CD Lamb, Puka natural step in progression?
>> I just think CD Lamb and Pukanu have much better quarterbacks than him. Like, it's not, it's totally not a function. I think he can be a first-team All-Pro player next year. I just think that you're looking at Kevin Stfansky coming in about a 50 to 53% pass rate projected based on when he had a running back like Bejian Robinson in a prime Nick Chub in Cleveland. I don't think we're going to see a ton of pass volume, and that's going to hurt Drake London's overall um, efficiency because this is not an offense that projects to throw for 5,000 yards. This is not an offense that's going to have 35 plus passing touchdowns. He's going to need to be clearly the alpha, which I expect him to be, but at the same time, I'm worried that, you know, 16 points per game is a great season from him, which is still a great season for what it's worth. But in half PPR and baseball mania and big tournaments, I do want that that smash. I want the guy that can absolutely crush.
>> Well, you said 16 points per game. I'm assuming you mean PPR. I mean, he's
>> Yeah, I mean in regular PPR league
>> 'Cause he was at 16.3 half PPR when he was healthy last year. So, I don't know if he's going to be at a 16 PPR point per game clip. Like, to me, it would be more so he's a safe 17 plus, 17 plus point or 17.5 plus point per game projection.
>> Yeah, still a great player. We're not going to go back and forth too long on him. He's obviously a very safe click, a very
>> solid option. He's the Josh Jacobs of wide receivers, basically. It's like he's on a, he's, he's not on as good of a team as Jacobs, but you know exactly what you're getting pretty much.
>> Well, one more thing too, it's funny because obviously um, you know, Justin Jefferson's situation is definitely a lot different going into 2026. Like, I do have ranked Justin Jefferson ranked above him, but everything that what people said about Justin Jefferson, "Oh, he's quarterback proof. Oh, it doesn't matter. JJ McCarthy, he should be a top eight pick going into last year." Well, Justin Jefferson was a lot more mortal. And with Drake London, he had a bad quarterback situation and still produced. Like, you can argue with bad quarterback situations, Drake London was just playing better football than Justin Jefferson was last year, but people don't really want to acknowledge that.
>> Yeah, totally fair. Totally fair. Uh, let's talk about Chase Brown, who is my number one most drafted early-round player for sure. Um, Chase Brown in back-to-back seasons, as we've talked about, from weeks 8 to 17 this year, only Christian McCaffrey, Jir Gibbs, Bejian Robinson averaged more than Chase Brown's 21.5 PPR points per game. When Joe Burrow came back from injury in week 13 against Baltimore, you can see the finishes: RB 6, RB13, RB1, RB3, etc. He was an absolute monster uh, down the stretch. And this is despite Chase Brown still fighting for a big contract, still in his prime. He's 26 years old. He had freaking five targets a game last year, 88 targets overall on the season. And he finishes a top seven running back in points per game. And yet his ADP right now is 206, 207, RB12 off the board. When I look at him versus the other running backs in this area, and I love all of them pretty much, Achan, Genty, Jonathan Taylor, I have more questions about their offense than I have about Chase Brown's. Then when I look at Hampton, Barkley, Walker, and James Cook, I have less question marks about their offense, but I have more question marks that they're going to ever achieve 88 targets like Chase Brown had uh, last season. So for me, I think he's just the best of both worlds. Honestly, you get a good running back who's maybe not quite as talented if you want to really nitpick. He's not as good as Jonathan Taylor. He's not as good as James Cook. He's not as good as Devon Han, etc. But he's my RB5 in reddraft right now. He's my 111 overall, and he goes off the board seven, eight picks after that. And I'm not really sure why because when you're just looking at the projections, Jason Higgins are healthy. Joe Burrow is healthy. Like, how is this offense not going to be a top five to 10 scoring unit with the upside of a nuclear type season where they can be the best offense bar none in football?
>> Yeah. No, it's definitely in the range of outcomes for the offense. I guess the only counterpoint, again, keep in mind I am more bullish on Chase Brown than the market. He's my ranked 204, or sorry, 203. I have him ranked as my 15th overall player. I understand at least where the market's trying to come from. They want to point to the fact that, "Oh, Sam Perin, he was getting some snaps in the backfield." We saw multiple times last year where Chase Brown was under a 60% snap share.
>> 31 years old, by the way. Sam Pine.
>> No, I, I totally get that. I'm just saying like what happened last year, like he did work into the equation, which people are going to view as maybe a bare case for Chase Brown. Like, "Oh, if a younger, more efficient talent were to emerge in the backfield, go behind him, doesn't necessarily become a committee." I think we just kind of go with what's being lended. Cincinnati's talking up this guy. He's clearly been the workhorse the last couple of years in terms of overall raw volume. Yeah, split. Sure, we can nitpick, but realistically, you're getting a guy with over 200 plus carries, over 50 plus targets. To me, that is a bellcow type of running back in the modern NFL. And yeah, like, is he ever going to be the guy that leads the league in touches, that leads the league in yards from scrimmage? Probably not. But you're getting touchdown equity, you're getting receiving volume, and you're getting a guy that while he's not going to blow you away with his efficiency, he's still going to give you somewhere in the mid-4s in terms of yards per carry.
>> Yeah. I mean, he was number five in weighted opportunities last year, number six in opportunity share with, you know, those guys being involved. So, unless you think Taj Brooks is going to be a major factor in this backfield, I think that uh, Chase Brown is due. Again, when you're on an offense this good, you don't need a 90% opportunity share. And ironically, I look at the positional rankings, I'm not the highest on the site. Uh, Sammy Stacks got him over Jonathan Taylor, I would assume, or maybe Christian McCaffrey, but probably Jonathan Taylor. So,
>> I was talking with him today and he, he said he was lower on JT, so that would make sense.
>> Yeah, pretty crazy. But yeah, Chase Brown, when you're in the mid-second round of a reddraft league of a baseball draft, and obviously we've talked about him ad nauseam from a dynasty lens as far as being a good contending trade target, he's just a guy that I expect to have a monster season in a contract year. Let's talk about Bree Hall, another FSE staple. We're going, playing the hits here. Um, Bree Hall going off the board RB 15, 29.5 ADP, relatively around the same range he was going last year, I think a little bit sooner.
>> Yeah, and like again, I understand it, you know, an injury-filled, hard-watch Jets year, they end up getting the second overall pick. It was, it was a nightmare. Like, if you owned Bree Hall and fantasy last year, you did not want to watch watch the Jets play football. But this is still the same Bree Hall that has two top 10 overall years that was the RB 17 in points per game in 2024 despite battling injury. Like, if you look at his 2024 season prior to week 10, he was a top eight overall running back. So I wouldn't really take the overall finish, the overall points per game finish to heart because realistically, when we look at the current situation, the Jets paid him a bag this off seasonason, and this has quietly developed into what I would describe as one of the most under-the-radar offenses in the league. Offensive line, you, you were punished a ton in the draft. You get Arman Mambu, you get Olu Fanu, interior, a bunch of young ascending talent. On top of that, you add a number two wide receiver. You had a guy like Kenya Sadi to be able to threaten at the tit position. When I look at the overall infrastructure of this Jets offense, I think they can be a sneaky top 20 to top 25 level group. And part of it is off the fact that I actually think they have professional quarterback play. That was the one thing that was hurting them all of last year. The Justin Fields, the Tyrod Taylor. If you are a troubled Jets fan, I am truly sorry for your lack of quarterback play. But I do think Gino, in terms of his resurgence back to the Jets, obviously he was drafted here second round way back in the day. I do think he can get, while I'm not sure he's going to, you know, unlock the Seattle level play. I think it's going to be somewhere between where he was at Seattle versus where he was last year with the Las Vegas Raiders. Jets offensive line much better than the Raiders. And like I said, if they can get to a top 20 to top 25 level unit, we've seen Bree be a 220 carry type of back. We've seen Bree Hall be able to command 60, 70 plus targets. Corey, he has had all this success in fantasy without a single year with double-digit touchdowns from scrimmage. Could this be the first year he actually does it?
>> I'm not going to sit here and say that I think the Jets are going to be good because that's gotten me into trouble before, specifically with Bree Hall and specifically with Garrett Wilson. What I will say is that when you just go purely projections, okay, he had 48 targets last year from two mobile quarterbacks. The last time he had an immobile quarterback was Aaron Rogers in 2024 and in 2023 with Zach Wilson, who was a young quarterback trying to get um, his sea legs under him. 76 targets and 95 targets. Um, Ashen Genty had 73 targets last year for the Las Vegas Raiders with Gino Smith at quarterback, not even for that whole season. So I think that Bree Hall at the very minimum, at the very minimum, can get back to 70 plus targets. And if he gets back to 70 plus targets, we're talking about an RB1 in fantasy, regardless of how good, bad, or ugly the Jets offense looks. Now, if you are of Danny's opinion where you like think Gino Smith's a god or whatever, then maybe you actually think that Gino Smith is going to command a decent top 20 scoring offense. I am going to, I'm going to go into this thinking they're going to be a bottom five to 10 unit and be surprised if they're not.
>> Which is totally reasonable, probably the easiest way to play it. But I would argue this guy was the RB2 in fantasy in a year that they were the 31st ranked offense in the league. So if we do have even the 23rd best, the 21st best offense in the league, maybe they give him some more inside the five attempts. Maybe we do see him reach, you know, eight rushing touchdowns, three or four in the receiving game. We could be in store for a legitimate 18 plus point per game year.
>> Yeah. Not to mention, he was coming off a blown ACL that season as well. In the last two years, I would say for sure. We haven't seen those breakaway long touchdowns that Bree Hall was ripping off earlier on in his career. Is that because of the knee injury? We don't know. Or is that because they can't sustain drives? I think the additions of Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyan Sadique in the offense can help out just get some red zone opportunities for this [ __ ] guy. Dude, he had, he had an RB2 season overall. RB6 in points per game with one inside the five carry that season. One.
>> Yeah. No, it's absurd. Uh, on top of that, obviously this past year was the down year in terms of points per game. Also dealt with some injuries. Uh, three separate years with 15 plus PPR points per game and three separate years with over 13 half PPR points per game. Getting that type of click in the third round Underdog, you're not going to complain.
>> Yeah. And as I do every year when I go through the, the hit rates of all the players in the early rounds, RB1s in their prime, guys who have finished as RB1s before, who are under the age of 27 are almost always the best picks in the first couple rounds. And Bree Hall definitely one of those guys. Um, let's talk about Javvonte Williams, who also actually fits the description as an RB1 in his prime because he had his first RB1 season last year with the Dallas Cowboys. Um, Javvante Williams was a guy that I've been in on every season except for last year, which is super annoying. He's not much higher for me in terms of his overall rank than his ADP. His ADP is at 35.6, RB18. I have him right now, I believe at uh, yeah, 30 overall, if I'm not mistaken, or yeah, 30 overall, RB15. So, I do have him a little bit higher than ADP. Why I love drafting him is kind of the same reason you like drafting Drake London. I think he's just a very clean-cut projection among him, Jacobs, and Kairen Williams. He's the cheapest in drafts. I think all three of them are pretty clean projections. And all three of them are starting running backs on good offenses who project for 1,200 plus yards and 10 plus rushing touchdowns. Maybe he repeats what he did last year when he had 51 targets as well. The Cowboys re-signed Javvante Williams. They didn't bring in anybody to the backfield. It's still Jaden Blue and Phil Mafa. And is Miles Sanders still on the team? I have no idea. Hopefully, we get CD Lamb out there playing better than he played last season. Hopefully, we get George Pickicket playing as well as he played last season. The longer I play fantasy, Danny, the easier it gets to click a guaranteed 14 to 17 point per game running back. I know earlier on in our channel, we were always saying, "I don't want a running back in the early rounds unless he's a 20 point per game upside guy." I don't think he has 20 point per game upside, Javvante Williams. But what I do think is that he's pretty much guaranteed to be a 15 point per game producer with some 17 point per game upside. And honestly, when you're deciding between Javvante Williams and a number two receiver or Javvante Williams and other running backs that are on worse teams or older, worse offenses, etc., it's not the same as when we were deciding on a projection like this at 205 in 2020. Now he's going at the 34 turn. So this is a big time difference in terms of price now than where a guy like Javvante Williams would have been going. There would have been years where a guy on the Cowboys offense, starting running back coming off an RB1 season, he might have been a first-round pick in some years. So Corey, um, it's funny because we've talked about this guy ad nauseam, but very similar situation. 1299 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, 19 inside the five carries, 40 targets. Who did I just recite?
>> Uh, is that Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor? That is Kairen Williams, who was a two-three turn pick last year. Could he not have the Kairen Williams year this year healthy with the Cowboys realistically?
>> Yeah. Yeah. I have him and Kairen and Jacobs all right at the two-three turn because I view them almost exactly identical.
>> Yeah. No, I'm on the same page there. If you can get, you know, let's just say hypothetically you get your anchor wide receiver and RB1 in the first round, like let's just say you're picking at that three-four turn, you end up with, I don't know, Genty plus Jefferson or, you know, uh, maybe CD Lamb Feltia and you pair him with Chase Brown or something like that. You can go and get Javvante Williams at the three-four turn and feel pretty confident that at the very minimum he's going to give you a top 15 in production. But I do think on the high end, even though he doesn't have RB 1, two, or three in his range of outcomes, could he be the RB 6? Could he be the RB7? I think that's a reasonable range.
>> Yeah, this is, you know, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chub, those guys and 51 targets, like that's not nothing. Like, that's, that's some receiving volume. If he runs hot on a couple of big plays in the receiving game, scores three, four touchdowns through the air, you could be talking about a guy with 15 plus total touchdowns, 1,500 plus total yards and 35, 40 receptions, which will absolutely be good enough for one of those like prime Josh Jacobs years, those prime Nick Chub years, those prime even Dalvin Cook potential years if he can really, really uh, rake off a big, big time performance. My only hesitancy on Jvonte Williams sometimes is that I don't believe he's the same caliber of player as some of the other guys that I have him ranked over, for example.
>> Yeah. Which, which is again reasonable, but you mentioned the depth chart. When we go through it, I think Malik Davis is a decent change of pace back. He ain't touching any of that inside the 20, inside the 10, inside the five work that Javante has to stranglehold on. And as we know, I'm very optimistic on the Cowboys offense. You're maybe not as optimistic, but at the same time, you can acknowledge that they're going to be a top five to 10 unit. And getting the bellcow running back that can have legitimately 25 inside the five carries this year is a very special price tag at 36 overall.
>> Yeah, you can't really go broke taking a profit is the way I look at Javvante Williams. So, let's talk about a guy that is definitely more of a, a swing in the mid-rounds here with Carnell Tate, who's going off the board. Wide receiver 30, uh, just 61ish overall ADP on Underdog. By the time we get to home reddraft leagues, I'm sure he'll be like a seventh or an eighth-round pick as opposed to, you know, five-six turn or wherever he's going on Underdog right now. But why is Carnell Tate a good pick off the board?
>> I mean, let me get the elephant out of the room here. Let me get the low-hanging fruit off the table. Um, he was my wide receiver in the class. He goes fourth overall to the Titans. And I feel like the market is kind of downplaying the landing spot for just how much upside I think is at hold here being that number one Titans wide receiver. In the last four years, we have seen other top 10 NFL draft picks, Cory, that have just simply been more expensive. What's the difference between what Carninal Tate's going into with the Titans versus where T McMillan was going into with the Panthers? Oh, by the way, Tedo McMillan was a top 40 overall pick. We look at Marvin Neighbors. Obviously, they were both top 30 picks in their respective rookie years. The only one that didn't go in the top 40 was Roma Dunay, and that was because we were talking about DJ Moore, Keenan Allen as significant target competition. When it comes to Carnell Tate, and what I'm looking at in this situation, you have Brian Dball, who has been unafraid in the past to feature young players. We look at that Malik Neighbors rookie season. We look at, for example, Tyrone Tracy Campaboo in back-to-back years. Brian Dable, if you are the best player at your position, isn't going to hold the rookie status against you, which is very good when it comes to Carnell Tate. On top of that, we talked about Cam Ward on a recent video in terms of sneaky dynasty breakout. He's a guy that I'm really getting higher on. We saw how we finished down the stretch last year making big-time NFL throws. I do think in a real NFL offense with Brian Dalel calling the shots and the opportunity to be the number one wide receiver, why can't Carnell Tate, if he is ready, be a 140 plus target guy? I think we could be talking about this guy at the end of the season as a top 15 overall receiver that we got at pick number 30 at the position.
>> Yeah, I think T-Mac's definitely the best comparison. Like you said, he was going kind of three, four turn, early fourth round. Like there was leagues out there for sure where people were getting him round five, round six in their home reddraft leagues. But again, like I said, I think Carninal Tate's going to be available round seven, round eight of some people's reaff. And, you know, Cam Ward versus Bryce Young feels like about a wash in terms of the caliber of quarterback you're talking about there. As far as the depth chart is concerned, both guys were expected to be the number one receiver right away. So, I, I think it's a pretty apt comparison. And it's not that I don't like Carnell Tate. I just have been taking other receivers in that area 'cause he goes right around the range of Romo Dunes, like the receiver that goes immediately ahead of him who I always take over him. And then also just ahead of him is like Terry McLaren and Jaylen Wadd and those types of guys who I'm usually taking over Tate. But it's, it's, it's mainly just a, a pri, like where he's situated in terms of the price point. But I think it very is, it's very much possible that with a good, you know, offseason, good training camp, good preseason, he could rise himself all the way into the 40s. It wouldn't shock me.
>> Well, that's kind of where I'm at, man. Once you're outside of round four, outside of the top 48 picks, like I think there's no singular better click on the board. I've been willing to push him up to 49, 50, 51st overall, which is, you know, significantly ahead of ADP. Again, 61 ADP. I probably got that up on my own, right? Just based off where I've been taking him in the early 50s.
>> Yeah. And it's weird 'cause when I look, I don't know if you've noticed this as well, but like in the, in the 40s, I don't like a lot of the players on the board. I like picks at the early 50s a lot more than I like at the 40s. And it's kind of making me realize that, holy crap, it's so much better to have an early pick this year because you're not going to catch that territory. You're going to make your picks at the one uh, at the one or the two or the three or whatever, and then at the two-three turn, you're going to skip over the four, the early fourth, the mid-fourth round guys and get guys at the four-five turn who feel like more comfortable clicks to me. So I mean, if you're taking anything away from this point, it's, it's that just having an early pick is absolutely insanely good this year.
>> Yeah. And the last thing I will note on Tate, taking a number one young ascending wide receiver who just went fourth overall as potentially your wide receiver three or wide receiver four on some of your best ball builds. Like, we always prioritize late season upside. Who's to say this guy can't be a 10 target per game uh, you know, 8 touchdown, 75 yards per game player in weeks 13 through 17 when all the money is?
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's, that's definitely the other takeaway is that in baseball mania specifically, he's a really good late season player. I, I do worry a little bit from a reddraft perspective that he could, he could be Marvin and you even T-MAC to some degree where like these ex-receivers, it's a big adjustment at the next level and especially when you're the best guy on the team and you're going to see the number one corners and the shadow coverage and all that kind of stuff. It helps that he's cheaper than those guys were. That's the, that's the big buffer between the, like you didn't have to pay a fifth-round, sixth-round price tag for Marvin Harrison Jr. You were paying a one-two turn pick. Like, you're basically getting Cardinal Tate right now two full rounds after where T McMillan was last year.
>> Yeah, exactly. So, let's keep it rolling here. Um, this one's very straightforward to me. Devonte Adams, the ageless wonder. I am clicking the crap out of this guy because I look at a player who's on, for my money, the best offense in football. Wide receiver 26, 51.4 ADP. We're talking about guys being cheaper than they were last year. Why did Devonte Adams go down in price? He scored 14 touchdowns in 14 games. No other receiver in the NFL had more than 11 touchdowns last year, and Devonte Adams missed the final three games of the season. So, is he prime Devonte? No. But we, he wasn't primed Devonte last year before he went into the season. So, for me, I look at a guy who was a top 20 rated wide receiver by PFF, was number 20 in yards per run. Like, that's pretty solid given this stage of his career. When you're that efficient in the red zone, you get those high-value targets for a team that is seemingly always in the red zone and always giving high-value targets away. You're gonna score a lot of fantasy points, man. Like, we're gonna project Matthew Stafford for 4,500 plus yards and, you know, 30 plus passing touchdowns. We just saw him whip up like [ __ ] 40 touchdowns or whatever. Like, Devonte Adams to me, I get Puka is an absolute monster. I get that there's still some rumors that they could trade for AJ Brown, and maybe that's what's holding this up right now in terms of the price tag. I just uh, I, I just don't see how this guy's not a return on ADP. Could he smash? I'm not exactly sure. I don't think he'll do that without Puka going down. But Devonte Adams, as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy and as long as Devonte Adams is healthy, is absolutely going to finish better than wide receiver 26 in points per game.
>> Yeah. The only thing I could possibly counter is when you look at the history of 33-year-old receivers, you know, let me, let me ask you to guess this. How many receivers aged 33 or older have posted an 1100 plus yard season in history?
>> Um, I can't imagine it's too many. It's probably sub five. Okay. A little bit more than that. We're at 13. Uh, and, and, you know, you got some archetypes like a Hines Wardman. Uh, the most recent one was in 2019 with Julian Edelman. If you take out, you know, the slot archetypes, you look at more big bodies. You have 2013 Anquin Balden. You have 2006 Terrell Owens with the Dallas Cowboys. You have 2003 Keenan Mardle. Like, that's the history you're kind of looking at here. But he doesn't have to be an 1100, 1100-yard receiver. He can get there on 950 yards if he has the same touchdown equity he had last year.
>> He had 800 yards last year. So the wide receiver eight in points per game. Like, it's pretty insane, man. Like,
>> He commanded a top seven target rate at the position. He was 28% target share, and he was playing in the slot only 12% of the time. And if he's struggling a little bit, I wouldn't put it past McVy to move him in there a little bit more. So,
>> I do think that it's the high-value targets, man. He was number two in the NFL in red zone targets. He, I believe there was a stat somebody tweeted this out. It was like endzone targets, and it was like Devonte Adams, like 10 more than anybody in the league or something like that. He's just the go-to guy in the red zone. And how is that going to change with him another year older?
>> Hey, tired. He's a touchdown merchant. Wired. What if McVey just views him as his Larry Fitzgerald this year because he realizes he's not as good on the outside and Pukanu is in his prime?
>> Mike Evans is going 14 picks ahead of him. Why? That's outrageous!
>> What's like, I, I love my, it's exact same argument. Exact same argument.
>> Except we've seen the number one. That's the only difference.
>> Yeah. Except we've also seen Devonte Adams work out with the Rams. We don't know how the experiment with Evans and San Francisco is going to look. And on top of that, you do have the hammy issues with the substation.
>> Yeah. You have more injury concern for sure and more like falloff concern in my opinion with Mike Evans also given the archetype of receiver that he is versus Adam. So, um, let's keep it going here. Jaylen Warren is a guy that you have as a um, as a good pickup right now. I have been a little bit more hesitant on this backfield mainly just because I don't know what's going to happen, but that's kind of when opportunities arise. So that is the key point because I think you were completely right. I think this is arguably the most ambiguous situation. I'm on the Jaylen Warren side. Some people are going to be on the Rico D side. Let me make the case for Jaylen Warren. Cory, what was the single most valuable thing about the Steelers backfield last year? Kenneth Gainwell's receiving role. You know, Kenny Gainwell weeks 11 on when he got that full, you know, third down, you know, space back type of role in this offense. Corey, he was averaging 17.8 points per game with less than eight carries per game. Kenny Gainwell, you, you can pull up the split. 7.75 carries per game for Gainwell, and he was 17.8 points per game because he was doing it on over six targets per game. Like, people don't realize Kenny Gainwell was basically James White 2.0. I know down the stretch that is how he was kind of operating, and the biggest reason for that to be the case is Aaron Rodgers, man. As good as he was in his prime, as athletic, as big-armed as he was, that guy is the definition of a checkdown merchant at this point in his career. In 2025 with Aaron Rodgers, what is that uh, 66.7% of his total passes came beneath 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. Rogers had 2100 of his 3468 passing yards travel less than 10 yards in terms of a dot. Yeah, when Aaron Rogers on the field, he wants to dump the ball off in space and he wants his Yak players to be able to work. And while Kenneth Gainwell obviously got that stranglehold over Jaylen Warren last year, I think stylistically Rico Dattle far more figures into that between the tackles role, which could leave the opportunity for Jaylen Warren to reacclimate himself as the space back, third-down back for the Steelers offense. Because when you look at the yards per out run for Jaylen Warren versus Rico Dow in his career, Rico Dattle peaked this past year in yards per run, and that was by far the worst of any season in Jaylen Warren's career. Jaylen Warren's yards per out run in his entire career was higher than Rico D's best year. So when I'm looking at this situation, I do think ultimately if you can hit on the right Steelers running back, you could potentially have a league winner in this offense. I, I view it as Jaylen Warren. We look at the target competition on the outside. Michael Pitman Jr., DK Mechaf, lack of a true elite number one wide receiver. Why can't Jaylen Warren have an 80 plus target, 85 plus target workload?
>> Yeah, my only push back because I, I, I do prefer Warren to Dowel. My only push back as far as why it could be Dow is Mike McCarthy is going to operate a different scheme than Arthur Smith. And also Mike McCarthy has worked with Rita Rico Dattle before. So, in McCarthy's offense, it has been more of like a, okay, you have a starting running back. They're going to push the ball a little bit more downfield, I think, just because they added Pitman, because DK Metaf and Jeremy Bernard are there. Like, it's not just DK Metaf anymore. Um, and Arthur Smith is a known, you know, terrorist offensive coordinator who throws to running backs and backup tight ends constantly. So, those would be my only like push back pieces. But, I generally agree that I think both of them honestly are decent buys at their price. Like, Jaylen Warren, if you want to take him at, you know, pick 70, whatever he's going at, I think that's totally fine. But I'm actually comfortable taking Rico D as well.
>> I, I don't disagree. Stylistically, why can't this, why can't this be the new version of what Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pard were? Jaylen Warren operate in that Tony Pard receiving back role. Ezekiel Elliott being the Rico Data, more the physical between the tackles, short-yardage type of guy. Like, I think both will have value. It's just when I'm looking at Jaylen Warren specifically because Aaron Rogers is back. Like, if Aaron Rogers is healthy, he's going to throw the ball under 10 yards probably 300 times this year.
>> Yeah. If I, if I just think rationally, who do I think is a better running back? I think it's Jaylen Warren. But the, the challenging thing for me comes up when if Caleb Johnson gets involved in this backfield in any way because then like I don't, I'm not relying on that because he looked like absolute steamy garbage last year. But if he's a 20% snap share and carry share player, that's going to throw a wrench into this backfield, and it might be a completely unusable situation as far as weekly start sits for reddraft, for best ball purposes. Warren also probably more big play upside and that kind of thing, especially if he's going to get the receiving targets. Although Rico Dattle has been one of the best baseball picks back-to-back seasons for, for uh, Underdog drafts. Yeah, I think both are going to return value, but realistically, who's more likely to be the big, "Oh my god, you needed a Steelers running back this year. It was this one." To me, the answer to that is Jaylen Warren, and you're getting him outside the first 75 picks.
>> He is a little bit younger, too, in case, you know, one of them gets banged up or whatever. Um, I'll keep it brief with Mai Lemon. We've talked about him, just like we've talked about with Carnell Tape plenty in the off-season. Um, for reddraft, I love him, too. Wide receiver 35, 72.7 ADP. First of all, there's closing line value when it comes to Underdog Fantasy because AJ Brown is going to get traded. And when he eventually does, even though we all saw this coming, Mai Lemon's ADP will probably rise a couple of picks, even if we already knew it was coming. Lemon is the eighth best prospect in the model since 2016. He was my wide receiver one before the NFL draft. He goes to a team that desperately needs to wake up its passing game, and I don't think it'll be more of the same with the Philadelphia Eagles based on everything they're saying. Bringing in Shawn Manion at OC, adding a first-round wide receiver, a second-round tight end. To me, that shows all signs towards at least higher passing volume. Are they going to be a 700 pass attempt team? No. But the Eagles were 19th in points for last year, and they were one of just nine teams to throw under 500 times over on the season. And the pace and the tempo was significantly lower with uh, Kevin Patulo than it had been with Kell Moore. So, the pass volume, the pace, and all that stuff, I expect it to go up. I think this will be a more pass-friendly offense. And I do think that Jayen Herz could see one of his better passing seasons that we've seen from him because I do think having a guy like AJ Brown where they don't really get along in the locker room could just be an addition by subtraction situation. And we also don't know for sure if Devonte Smith can handle number one coverage, number one corners, playing at X receiver, and Mai Lemon is going to have the easiest, you know, uh, alignment on the field, the easiest matchups on the field. And I also think one of the most fascinating storylines uh, going into this off-season in terms of how the Eagles are going to reapproach their offense was bringing in Shawn Manion. And we have heard with Shawn Manion's offense, they want to, they want to be operating more across the middle of the field. They want to be operating more in the short passing game. And what do they do this off-season, Cory?
>> Yeah, they drafted a first-round slot receiver and a second-round tight end who's basically a slot receiver. So, I do think there's a lot of credence to the fact that even though Jaylen Herz has struggled in that area traditionally, I do think Shawn Manion wants more on his plate, wants to see him take that development. Again, he is paid like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. It's time to show that you're capable of growing your offensive approach. I really do feel like with, with Mai Lemon, you mentioned the talent profile, you mentioned the opportunity to be a top two target on this offense. And the reason why I say top two is I think it's ambiguous to the point where what if he is the number one? What if he is just so undeniable this year, even as a rookie, that by week 13, week 14, week 15, he's the one getting nine targets per game in this offense? It
>> It wouldn't be the first time he's outproduced a bunch of NFL talents. He relegated Zachariah Branch and Duc Robinson to transfer away from USC and alpha Jacobe Lane the whole time he was there. So, it wouldn't be shocking if Mai Lemon, who's been objectively sick at football his whole life, becomes, comes into the Eagles and is objectively sick at football immediately. Like, that wouldn't be shocking at all. Even though he's 5'11 and 190 lbs and has fake demon energy to him, like he's still a really good player and he always has been. He's already getting a lot of buzz in camp and OTAs and stuff. So, and it wouldn't shock me if again, closing line value, he's a 52nd overall pick by the time we get to the actual August drafts. I think mainly a lot of the reason why I like Mai Lemon right now is because I don't think he'll be this cheap.
>> Yeah, I think that's part of it too. Uh, also just a natural preference for us having Lemon over Jordan Tyson. I do feel like the market's kind of on the inverse.
>> Tyson too, for what it's worth. I've been taking a decent amount of Tyson also.
>> I do too. I'm just more so saying like because the market's so clearly Tyson over Lemon, I do feel like Lemon's ADP has been pushed down to the point where, I mean, I mentioned it with Tate. He's going off the board 61st overall. I would argue you could potentially be 10 to 15 spots higher. You can definitely make that case for Mai Lemon as well.
>> Yeah. So, let's talk about a couple of onesies. You have Sam Laaporta. I have Patrick Mahomes. Um, Sam Leaporta, I'm trying to get a fantasy doc on the channel at some point because I do want to know about a guy like Sam Leapora's back and, you know, what's the situation here, but I think it's baked into the price pretty comfortably at tight end 7, 97 overall ADP.
>> I mean, me personally, I've done a full 180 here. I'm looking at the situation now and getting more and more optimistic on his recovery from that back injury. And obviously we know the story. Has the back injury really deflated in terms of, "Oh, is he going to be ready for 2026? What's he going to look like?" There's a lot of ami ambiguity surrounding that back injury. But let's just look what he's done in his career. Came into his uh, rookie season 800 plus
yards, top three over tight overall tight end in fantasy and he is not even 26 years old yet. On top of that, we're looking at what happened last year when he was on the field. Cory, the narrative when Sam Leaporta was on the field was that Jameson Williams was useless in fantasy. Leaporta gets hurt and now Jameson Williams going 50 spots higher than him.
>> Yeah, I uh I'm really shocked that people haven't really cared about Leaporta as far as fantasy is concerned. Reportedly, they're trying to do everything they can to sign him right now to an extension, which if they were signing him to an extension and his back was completely cooked, would his why would they be caring about doing an extension with him? That's actually one of the bigger bull signals you can see on Leaporta is that the fact that it sounds like they'll have a deal done by the time the season starts too.
>> And I'm and I'm so glad you mentioned that cuz that was the main reason why I became more optimistic. Oh, if this team is trying to secure this guy long term, clearly they are not worried about the back. So why should I why should I be holding it against a sub 26-year-old tight end who has only produced when he's been on the field who's attached one of the 10 best offenses in the league and yet you're getting them the cheapest of his entire career. 97.280p 280p, tight end seven off the board. And on top of that, Cory, I had my issues with John Morton last year. I thought maybe Detroit's offense would fall off going from Ben Johnson, you know, one of the best play callers in the NFL to John Morton, who I wasn't as optimistic on. I had him, I believe, in my CRD tier when I did the coordinator video last year. Corey, who was Trey McBride's offense coordinator when he was the title one in fantasy this past year?
>> Drew Pig, who's now the offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions. Now obviously correlation causing very good and they don't have a Monro St. Brown and even Jameson Williams on that team but
>> Sam Leaporta was a two three turn pick after his rookie season was a sixth round pick last year and now he's a seventh eighth round pick uh at this point in time and yeah I mean I have him straight up ranked over Harold Fannon I have him straight up ranked over Tucker Craft because I just think that both I I think Sam Leaporta has less questions than those guys do.
>> Yeah. And I'd go a step further. Tell me why Tyler Warren goes 30 picks ahead of him.
>> I have Tyler Warren over him, but I don't think it should be a 30 spot discrepancy.
>> Yeah, I think like if you want to say, okay, Tyler Warren's the head of the like I think Leaporta needs to be in that tier. And yet he's kind of being treated right now more so in the Kyle Pitts, more so in the tight end 8 n 10 area. And to me, again, Harold Fannon is going to be playing for a much worse offensive projection with arguably just as much target competition. Take Sam Leaporta.
>> Yeah, exactly. But when we look at where you and I have him, I have him at 91, you have him at 86. His ADP is what, 97 or whatever you said it was. Um, and also too, I I have my tight end six, which is the highest on the site as well. So, yeah, Sam Leaporta, I'm not a super big, you know, go early on tight ends guy, especially in baseball, but in reddraft, I do think I'm going to be very in on on Sam Leaporta because he's, you know, a set it and forget it starter who you can get after you've already filled out three running backs and four receivers. And Corey, like even absolute worst case, let's just say like from an ability perspective, he's not quite what he was before the back injury. Cory, Jake Ferguson was a top three, top four overall tight end with a bum knee this year. When you're a good tight end that can command volume in the red zone and be a number two on your offense, that's going to produce fantasy points. Even though Jake Ferguson literally couldn't [ __ ] move in the open field.
>> Yeah. And of course, we have the inherent implied upside that if JMO or St. around misses any time and the the Lions have the easiest schedule in football this year according to Warren Sharp. So, I mean, they're going to score a lot of points. Um, speaking of scoring a lot of points historically, not so much lately, Patrick Mahomes, um, pretty straightforward why I think he's a good pick. He's Patrick Mahomes. I don't know if I have to explain much more than that. He's going off the board 93rd overall, which is the cheapest he's ever been in his entire career. Now, it's understandable because he's coming off of a torn ACL, but it sounds like he's right on track. It doesn't sound like he's behind schedule or anything like that. Not to mention, he's a quarterback. Like, if he suffers at all, it'll be as a runner, I would imagine. Like, he might go from 4.6 carries per game last year, 422 yards, five touchdowns to more of that like 3072 touchdown type of uh rushing production.
>> But the thing that's keeping him, you know, actually sliding beyond this ADP from what I've noticed in a lot of my drafts is the Rasheed Rice situation, the jail time affecting what people think of him. But here's the thing. Last year when Rasheed Rice was suspended, wasn't on the field, and Xavier Worthy wasn't on the field slash wasn't healthy, uh, nobody scored more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, 23.8 points per game in that first six games of the season. He was having a major bounceback last year. And this ain't a chicken or the egg situation. It isn't, oh, does Rasheed Rice make Mahomes or does Mahomes make Rasheed Rice? We know what the [ __ ] answers. The best quarterback on earth makes the systemwide receiver. Like, why are we even questioning Patrick Mahomes in that regard? On top of that, we know when they're inside the five, inside the 10. What team calls more passing attempts than the freaking Kansas City Chiefs? How many freaking little little shovel passes do you need to see? Screen passes do you need to see? Little drag routes, little flare outs. Andy Reed's got the entire playbook inside the five and probably 70% of it is passes.
>> Yeah. And the maj I like nearly made my answer to this question, this like onesie kind of pick, Travis Kelce, because I've been taking a lot of Travis Kelce for exactly what you just said. A lot of shovel pass [ __ ] Uh, Rashid Rice, question marks. Xavier Worthy obviously hasn't, you know, been the guy yet. So, for me, I look at it, okay, the Kansas City Chiefs were 21st in the NFL in scoring last year. Kenneth Walker comes in, that'll help the offense. Xavier Worthy hopefully is healthy. Kelsey is back. My instincts are telling me that Rasheed Rice misses zero games because of the situation. I like I think
>> he he's in prison right now or in a jail cell
>> with a bum knee, by the way.
>> Yeah, with a bum knee. If Rasheed Rice is not the same player, Rasheed Rice has a bad season. I've actually been taking a lot of Rashid Rice because I don't intend to take him a lot in general and I think this will be the cheapest he is. Um, so I don't know what's gonna happen there, but like I said, in the six games that Rashi Rice missed last year with suspension, Patrick Mahomes was the best quarterback in fantasy football.
>> Yeah, I'm on the same page with you. Realistically, it is also funny seeing the comps list with two Cowboys in there. So, shout out Romo and Dak. But all jokes aside, I mean, yeah, maybe he's not going to run exactly like he was last year, but guess what? He was also when he was fully healthy like a 23 point per game score to pay off at his current ADP at 93.3 overall. Guess what? You don't need him to produce 23 points per game. Even if he fell down to 20, 21, 21.5, it's going to be outproducing all the quarterbacks drafted in his range.
>> Yeah, I would say in reaff go like round five or six because, you know, he's a big, you know, casual leagues are going to take him super high. But on underdog, the fact that you're getting him as QB12, which is by far the cheapest he's ever been, and he's going after, like I like the projection for Trevor Lawrence. I like the projection for Justin Herbert. I like the projection for Dak Prescott and those guys. He's going like almost two full rounds after some of them. And that's not even to mention like would it shock you at all if he outscores Jaylen Herz straight up who he outscored last year. If he outscores Drake May straight up. If he outscores Jayen Daniels straight up. If he outscores Caleb Williams straight up, like those guys are going like four rounds ahead of him.
>> You could probably say that for any quarterback bar Josh Allen realistically.
>> And maybe healthy Lamar Jackson, that's pretty much it. So Patrick Mahomes, the fact that he's not costing you a premium selection and you can build a two quarterback build with him still at that cheap of a price tag or in reddraft leagues you can roll with him as a set it and forget it starter if you're getting him round seven, round eight, round nine. Easy money.
>> There might be someone in the comments, well Mahomes, what if he starts on the pop? What if he misses the first four weeks? By all accounts, it sounds like he's going to be back for OTAAS.
>> Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I like it, it's pretty bullish as far as his like timeline is concerned. So that's why I'm not like I'm confused why. Again, very similar to what I said with like Lemon and some of these other guys. I think he'll be at least 10 picks more expensive than this by the time we get to the uh to the actual August drafting period when people are drafting reddraft leagues. So anyways, those were 10 players that are our favorite picks on the board, guys that we are we think are values that we're smashing during drafts right now.
>> One more thing real quick. If he was expected to miss more time, do you think the sports books would have him at a at the Kansas City Chiefs at a 10 and a half projected win total?
>> Probably not. Probably not.
>> Sorry about that. Continue now.
>> Appreciate you guys for tuning in. Again, this was kind of like the first reddraft video of the year for us. Let us know what you guys thought down below. And again, uh, brand new. Well, not brand new because we've had it for a number of years, but this year again, underdog fantasy, you can start doing your drafts. $25 to enter in Basketball Mania 7. $2 million up top to first place. And if you guys are wondering, oh, that's totally unattainable. We were damn close last year. So, we're hoping that we can actually take this thing down. And if you guys want a chance to take this thing down, head on over to Underdog, use the promo code FSE. When you sign up and make your first play, enter your first draft, make pick them on NBA or NHL playoffs, you will get access to our Dynasty rookie draft guide, our Dynasty Rookie film breakdowns, our reddraft rankings manifesto when it comes out couple of weeks from now, and then our weekly start set rankings for the entirety of the season. All of that stuff, $100 value for the whole season to get that stuff on the site. You get that for free when you sign up at least $10 on Underdog and you can win money with that $10 as well. So check that out. That'll be linked down below in the pin comment. But with that being said, peace out. We'll talk to you soon.