Transcription
Hey everybody, it's Ron from Pick Dogs, and this is Ron's Rundown. We're going to go over the Movie Games, the Wild Card Series games for Tuesday, September 30th, 2025.
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Alrighty, here we go. It's day one of the MLB postseason. Here are the games for Tuesday.
First up, we've got the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians. We've got Tarik Skubal for Detroit. Looks like it's going to be Gavin Williams for Cleveland, but if not, should be Tanner Bibee. It's still not official, but Williams is the most likely. It makes the most sense for Cleveland to go with game one, as these are two ace-level starting pitchers that had absolutely incredible numbers against the opposition in the regular season. Skubal against Cleveland: 28 innings, 40 strikeouts, a .165 opponents' batting average, and a 0.64 ERA. We know the Guardians for most of the year struggled against lefties. They did improve down the stretch in September, and they were able to get to Skubal for enough runs to win in the most recent game, but still, Skubal was dominant against this Guardians lineup overall this season. Gavin Williams, it's the same case for him. He had a 1.06 ERA against Detroit in 17 innings of 29 strikeout baseball with an even lower .136 opponents' batting average. He was incredible against Detroit. So this is going to be a great game. I think it's going to be a pitcher's duel and a low-scoring game, and honestly, a low-scoring series.
But for me, I actually like the Tigers in game one, despite me, you know, I've been critical of the Tigers for a lot of the second half of the year because I mentioned that their first-half success was a little bit unsustainable because of all the not-so-great underlying numbers, expected numbers for their rotation and their bullpen, as well as some of the concerning numbers for their offense as well. I mentioned that I thought the Tigers were not as good as their record. We saw them collapse in the second half of the year. They blew a big-time 15 and a half game division lead to these Guardians, who I was able to get plus 1600 AL Central win. I know it was even higher at one point, and you know, congratulations to all who tailed that play. But for me, in game one, I still trust Skubal more in a matchup like this. I think that the Tigers have their concerns in their bullpen, but I think their high-leverage options are okay. I don't think they have the depth as the Guardians do. But I think Skubal can go six, maybe even seven or more innings in this game of quality start baseball, rack up the strikeouts, and give the Tigers that Cy Young performance that they really need in game one. There's a reason why, even though these pitchers both had great numbers against the opposition, the Tigers are the big favorites in this game. Skubal is on another level compared to Williams in my opinion, and I think the Tigers actually have the better offense in this game, in this series. So I'm going to side with Detroit in game one on the money line. Lean towards the under as well.
Next up, we've got the Padres and the Cubs. 3 PM Eastern for this one. It's going to be Nick Pivetta for San Diego. Still waiting for the official starter for Chicago, but it should be Matthew Boyd. If not, it's going to be Shota Imanaga. And honestly, I don't really love either of those options in this game, as San Diego was solid against lefties in September. They had a low strikeout rate, high walk rate, decent OPS and power numbers with a very low BABIP to go with it, one of the lowest in the league, suggesting that they were even a little bit unlucky against lefties down the stretch. And when you're facing a guy like Boyd, who had an ERA above 4.5 in August, ERA above five in September, and you're facing a guy like Imanaga, who really struggled down the stretch, his final three games, a lot of earned runs, a lot of home runs, his last five games, and eight earned runs in particular in his final start of the season. I think the Padres match up well against both those options. And then you get into a Chicago Cubs bullpen that I'm not in love with either, especially compared to San Diego's superb bullpen with a guy like Suarez as your closing option ahead of Mason Miller. He's not even the bullpen's so strong that Miller is not even the closer. He's that high-leverage option in the seventh or eighth inning if the Padres need him. And then you've got guys like Estrada, [ __ ], as options the rest of the way. So San Diego, the much more talented and much deeper bullpen in this series.
Now, Nick Pivetta, I don't think he'll be perfect in this game. I expect a short leash for him. Honestly, I think that, you know, Mike Shildt has been one of the better managers over the last couple of years in Major League Baseball, and one of the reasons is because he manages his bullpen so well. If Pivetta does struggle early on, I could see a very short leash and a very good bullpen enter the fray, and that should be enough for a Padres win. I still think that Pivetta matches up okay in this game because Wrigley Field looks like it's going to be beneficial pitching weather with the wind blowing in. And for a guy like Pivetta, who gives up a lot of home runs or at times gives up a lot of home runs, that does benefit him. He's got good strikeout stuff overall and pitched pretty well against the Cubs overall in the regular season. So I think Pivetta will be good enough. I think the Padres can get to Boyd or Imanaga. I think the Padres have the much better bullpen at a great price. I'm going to take San Diego on the money line.
Next up, we've got the Red Sox and the Yankees. Great matchup, big rivalry. 6 PM Eastern on ESPN. It should be a good one. Garrett Crochet and Max Fried are your starters. Two of the best lefties in baseball. Two of the best starting pitchers in baseball. And the Yankees are, you know, sizable favorites in this game at home. Despite Crochet being considered, you know, if it wasn't Skubal, he would probably be the Cy Young winner in the American League. Crochet would. Fried was up there, though, especially, you know, the very beginning of the season and the very end of the year. He had a great end to the season as the Yankees try to push for that American League East title. They were able to tie the Blue Jays, but the Blue Jays earned the tiebreaker. But Fried was, you know, I mean, seven-plus innings in four of his last five games down the stretch, including a game against the Red Sox, which actually wasn't his best outing, but still wasn't terrible. Five and a third innings, two runs, six strikeouts in a Yankees 5-3 win. The Yankees won a ton of free starts down the stretch and was a big reason why they were able to win those 94 games and, you know, have a home-field advantage in this series.
Now, Crochet again, he's been excellent all, you know, all throughout the season. He's been a very profitable starting pitcher. The Red Sox have won a lot of his games down the stretch, but you look at his matchup against the Yankees back on September 14th. It was a quality start. He had 12 strikeouts in that game, but also gave up a couple of home runs and a lot of sharp contact in that one. And that was also a game where the Red Sox had a 6-0 lead in the very first inning, and Crochet still struggled a bit with those extra-base hits and home runs. And for me, when you look at this Yankees lineup in the month of September against left-handed pitching, they absolutely crushed them. They were top five in OPS, but they were also number one in isolated power. The strikeout rate, but so is the walk rate. They're going to swing and miss in this game. Crochet should be able to rack up the strikeouts. But I think the Yankees, who have been excellent offensively in this final few, you know, games, final few series of the season with Aaron Judge as hot as he's been, Giancarlo Stanton, of course, racking up the home runs, I think the Yankees can find enough extra-base hits and home runs in this game against Crochet to walk away with the win. Now, if this is a close game late, I think the Red Sox have the better bullpen, but I don't think it's by as large a margin as say, that Padres-Cubs matchup. Obviously, Chapman's been one of the best relievers in Major League Baseball. And the Yankees have had their problems with their high-leverage guys like Devin Williams, but I still think talent-wise, projected WAR-wise, the Yankees will be fine in the bullpen in this series. So, I'm going to say side with the Yankees in this game one on the money line.
And the final game we're going to talk about for Tuesday's Wild Card Series matchups, it's the Reds and the Dodgers. 9:00 PM Eastern on ESPN. Hunter Greene going for Cincinnati. It looks like it'll be Blake Snell for the Dodgers. If either any of these starting pitchers are scratched, like I said, Guardians should be Gavin Williams. If not, Tanner Bibee. If it's somebody different, I still like the Tigers in the game, but I'll make sure to update Cubs. Like I said, Boyd or Imanaga. If it's somebody different, I'd be surprised. But again, I still like San Diego. And then in this matchup, if it's not Blake Snell, we'll see who that starter could be. But, uh, Roberts mentioned he's, you know, very likely going to be going with Blake Snell. Hunter Greene is going to be the guy for Cincinnati. And while I think that Hunter Greene usually gives the Reds their best chance to win a game in any series that he pitches in, I think it's an uphill battle for this Reds team. Give them credit for making the postseason. They were a pretty sizable dog in terms of making, you know, their odds to make the playoffs with the Mets having a sizable lead in the wild card spot. The fact that they're even here is unbelievable. But this is still a really tough Dodgers lineup. They've got good numbers against Hunter Greene. They got to him earlier in the season, not too long ago. It was back on August 25th. Five innings, five total runs, three of those were earned, couple of home runs. That was a 7-0 blowout win for the Dodgers. And, you know, Greene, he was excellent in September. 30 and two-thirds, 38 strikeouts, sub-3 ERA. But the Dodgers, I think, is just too much. I don't love this Reds lineup. I don't love this Reds bullpen. I think the Dodgers have a big-time advantage offensively and their bullpen. And even starting pitching-wise, I think Blake Snell can go toe-to-toe with a guy like Hunter Greene. So, I'm going to side with the Dodgers in game one. And honestly, think this price is cheaper than what it should be. I think the Dodgers should be 200-plus in this game. So I'll take the Dodgers on the money line.
And that's it. Those are the game one matchups in the Wild Card Series for Tuesday. Hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, hit that like button and subscribe. Put those baseball picks in the comments section below. And again, if you're looking for my best bets, you can find those at Pick Dogs Premium. As always, this is Ron Relli. Good luck.