Transcription
These are players that were selling in fantasy football, but there are conditions to each of these sells. So, let's start with the first one's a good example. Trayvon Henderson.
Look, I mean, it's well documented on two or three separate videos on this channel for the last couple weeks. We've been telling you we're not quite convinced that Trayvon's going to be super involved in this offense this year. And it means that we were wrong about Trayvon Henderson to start the year. And we are deeply sorry about that because he looks like one of the worst picks in fantasy football. Luckily, I didn't I don't know how many Trayvons you got. I only got maybe one.
I think I got maybe one. So like, he started by the time I was on him, everybody was on him and then he started moving up a lot. Then he went too far. So like, you know, it's a mixed bag. But like when you're looking at the snaps yesterday for the Titans Patriots game, uh Randre Stevenson had 49 snaps. Terrell Jennings had eight and Trayvon Anderson had nine.
Now, and the other funny part about this, and if you are anywhere online, you've saw you've seen this already, that Mike Rabel when Terrell Jennings was walking into the locker room, dabbed him up and was like, "There is our five-minute back. There he is. Let's go." Like he is it's like everything coming out of that organization for Trayvon Henderson right now is like, so he got asked about Trayvon again. He gets asked almost every press conference and coach speak is important for fantasy football. And he said, um, basically, you know, Trayvon, you know, we this we just kind of went fromre's way today. Still going to be a big part of what we're doing in the future, whatever that makes me feel 0% better about Trayvon Henderson as somebody who owns him. Like I, I just, you, it's shifting the wrong way. And Raandre has given Trayvon Henderson every opportunity.
The other problem is, you know, the creativity as a runner that Trayvon Henderson is showcasing when he does get the ball on the ground is not great. Raandre is more creative as a runner, which is incredible, but he is. And so I, I think, you know, they're probably at this point with the way they both look correct in giving Stevenson more carries.
And they're not getting him involved. Break down the analysis at this point, though. It is it does have to do with involvement, though, because Raandre has had games. I mean, they said this this past game where he had like 15 points. They're like, "He's had the most yards from scrimmage in the first quarter than he's had in the last two games combined because he wasn't creative with the ball and his touches at all." But guess what? They gave him volume.
And you don't have enough volume with Henderson for him to figure it out and be creative. And that's that's the huge issue. So that's that's really the the the crux of it right there. And so now the caveat with selling Trayvon Henderson is if you can get somebody that you actually can flex every week, it's a no-brainer. But he's far enough down rankings where you might not get that at this point. And so at that point, you have to balance the upside. But I feel like we're misjudging his upside only comes with opportunity. Is he going to get the opportunity to showcase his upside this year? I don't think he will personally. But that's just a guess. I would be thrilled to death if he did. I would be I would be absolutely thrilled if he did. I'm just not sure it happens this year.
So, when I'm looking at Trayvon, you know, if you still have somebody like he's ranked next to Trey Benson on the site, I would I would buy Trey Benson for Trayvon Henderson in a heartbeat. I would, um, and just hold him until he comes back. You can't start Trayvon now. So, you also can't start Trey Benson now, but when Trey Benson's back, you can start him. And so, I, I would do that. I would buy Zack Charbanet for Trayvon Henderson. They're ranked two spots apart on the site with Charbanet. Like, you could potentially try to flex him every week, right? Um, you know, Kamani Vidor, Rashad White, if you need wins now. I think those are guys I'm comfortable sending Trayvon Henderson for.
Now, guys like Bam Knight, probably not. RJ Harvey, I mean Harvey and Arandre are kind of the same thing except the main difference between them is Harvey's getting more snapshare and scoring more fantasy points, but they're in very similar situations to be honest. So, I feel like that's kind of a lateral move. Harvey's really in the same boat here as as Tvon Henderson. Aaron Jones I'd probably take a shot on for sure. Tai Spears I'd be comfortable probably taking a shot on. I mean, and I know that's cheap relative to where we drafted him, but where we drafted him is out the window now. It just doesn't matter. It just doesn't anymore. And and right now, you have to look, do you want this guy? Is he droppable? Is the conversation that we're having around Trayvon Henderson fantasy football?
So, if you can move him for a guy that you could potentially plug in either short-term to get some wins or long-term, um, a guy that is a good depth option or a first or second guy off the bench and somebody still wants to buy into the upside of Trayvon, I, I'm not, I'm not denying that Trayvon has upside. I'm just saying that I think at this point you're probably going to have to be realistic about if that upside is going to occur this year. And my guess is the answer to that is probably no. So I'm going to say, uh, I'm gonna say for for Henderson, um, if you can get any of those guys are going to make an impact in your lineup, I think he's going to be I think they're going to be better shots than having Henderson on your bench at this point.
So I understand fully understand that this one could blow up in our face, but honestly, the moves, the moves that you can, the moves that you can make in the middle of the season here are pretty few and far between when it comes to like some of these bigger names and bigger moves. If you are a team that is 500 or below and you need to take a shot or make a move here, like AJ Brown is a guy that on a week-to-week basis, I just don't trust. I, I don't trust this offense. I don't trust those receivers on a week-to-week basis to be consistently productive. And for the value that AJ Brown currently is in redraft compared to Devontae Smith, for example, is like it's significant enough for me to be like, okay, number one, um, I would rather just downtier from AJ Brown to Devontae Smith because they literally are the same player in this offense in terms of fantasy production. They are the same. Their floor is as low as the other. Their ceiling is as high as the other. And you don't feel great any given week if you're going into halftime and they've only got like one target on the day. Like that's just the reality. You saw the least amount of target volume that you've seen for a while, uh, in this matchup against Minnesota for AJ Brown, but again, he had a couple of explosives. He had a touchdown. He had a great day. I mean, I mean, an absolutely amazing day. 28 points. He had a 22-pointer against the Rams. He has had four single-digit games in the first seven weeks of the season. Three in the double digits, four in the double digits, four in single digits. You have the Giants, then you have buy, then you have Green Bay and Detroit. The Giants one, you could see another decently productive day against the Giants in week six, he had 14 points on nine targets, six receptions, 80 yards. Um, but after that, Green Bay and Detroit, that's going to be pretty shaky. That's going to be pretty iffy. We'll see what happens there.
Here's here's what I'm worried about. Number one, I am, and I've I've noted this before. I am worried about the, um, the opportunity availability there on a weekly basis with Jalen Hurts only throwing the ball consistently like 20 to 25 times a game. I mean, he's gone from 23, 22 up to 32, 24, 38, 33 down to 23. When they are down in games, they are going to throw the ball more against the Giants. We'll see if they end up being down in that game again. I doubt the game script is going to look similar to how it did last time where Hurts had to throw the ball 38 times. Um, and then you have the by-week of course.
Look at the guys priced around AJ Brown at the moment. Number one, Devontae Smith is a tier below AJ Brown right now. And again, from a production perspective, they are literally the same. And on a points per game basis, Devontae Smith is averaging more on a points per game basis. I would downtier from AJ Brown to Devontae Smith. Schematically, AJ Brown is the one. Schematically, Devontae Smith is the two. From a fantasy production perspective, they are both high-end ones, low-end, like very low floor guys because of the situation. I would pivot to Courtland Sutton or Garrett Wilson. I would try to get Igbuka low. I would try to buy Romo Dunce low. Those types of guys, right? So, like I'm asking for a lot with AJ Brown if you are going to sell him. But this is this is the time that you are waiting for with AJ Brown if you were to buy him low and then like sell him high. If you're freaked out on a weekly basis about like what AJ Brown's floor is going to be, which he's demonstrated more than half the time this season so far, then go get a guy who you feel a little more confident is going to be more consistent for the rest of the season, like a Romo Dunce, for example. I think this is one of the few times where you could actually pull that off because people are going to be moving Romo down Romo Dunce down their rankings quite a bit. I rest my case.
So Keenan Allen just dropped 29 points this week on a 64% snap share, but he had 14 targets and 11 receptions. Gets a Colts defense where all the cornerbacks are out. It, it was just atrocious. The Colts can't defend a rock running rots against them. And that is part of the reason why Keenan Allen's a sell high for us here. You know, Keenan Allen's a wide receiver six on the season. And you're looking at his games, 19, 17, 19, and then he had a stretch there three weeks he didn't do anything and then 29 points. Keenan Allen is only still only playing 50 to 60% of the snaps. When you're looking at his utilization, and I know it hasn't mattered because he's been so efficient, but when you're looking at his utilization compared to the other wide receivers in this offense, Keenan Allen has 49 snaps compared to Lad 67 and Quinton Johnson 68. Okay? So, he is the odd man out when there are two wide receiver sets. Keenan Allen's not on the field. And it hasn't mattered a ton because, you know, in yesterday's game, for example, Quinton Johnson was the odd man out as he had five targets to Lad's 13 and Keenan Allen's 14. The problem is this isn't always going to happen. And I feel like of all the guys and when you're looking at where all these wide receivers are valued and what their actual legitimate outlook is rest of the season, Keenan is a guy that's going in a place where, you know, number one, he's going next to Michael Pitman right now. I mean, he, he, he is ranked two spots for Michael Pitman. Michael Pitman is the wide receiver one in an offense that's just as good, um, and has less competition. Even though, you know, Warren and DS are both competition, it's not Lad and QJ. It's just not. It's it's a completely different thing and Pitman is going to get his own in that offense every time. And so I would make that pivot in a heartbeat. Uh, you're also looking at potentially getting to like a T. Higgins, who I like rest of the season. You could take an outside shot with with Terry McLaren. He's probably going to be, um, you know, more consistent when he starts getting going. Stefon Diggs, if you believe in him still. What did Diggs have yesterday? I forgot to ask that.
He had, I for because I saw I think Booty had a touchdown. Bourne had the big plays. Diggs had 14 points. So seven catches for 69 yards. This is that's about what I think Diggs his rest of the season like right there. That's what I think his median is. Um, and so I'm honestly comfortable pivoting off of Keen Allen for most of the guys in this area. And, you know, let's just go ahead and pull him up on the Tradefinder real quick and see like what, what kind of trades have been going down for Keenan Allen right now. For somebody traded Keenan Allen for Raandre, I'm totally fine taking Raandre Stevenson in there to be honest with you. That's that's a running back that you can, you know, put in your flex box. Um, you know, somebody traded Tucker Craft for Keenan Allen. I would probably prefer Keenan Allen there. Um, somebody traded, um, these some of these trades are absolutely whack. Somebody traded T. Higgins for Keenan Allen, Tony Pollard. Uh, when you're looking at, you know, Allen up up here tier to Higgins, I'm definitely good with that. And that's kind of what I'm mentioning. I think that's what you can do best with Keenan Allen since you drafted him so late is you can use him as a consolidation piece. Yep.
Um, and that's where I think you are going to get the best deals here. And so, if we're going to take Keenan Allen plus, we can get up to the, uh, DK Wadd, Evans, Devontae Smith. I don't want to say QJ or Lad, but I'd rather have QJ or Lad the rest of the season. And potentially Chris Ave range, Brian Thomas. So that, that's that's what I really like to do with Ken Allan is I just like to take him and move off of him and get somebody that is again higher upside and better. I think you can package him with another piece and get a better player. You know, with Keenan, I think he's still going to be fine rest of the season, but he's a top six wide receiver. There's zero chance he's a top six wide receiver rest of the season. It's reflected in his rest of season rank on the Flock site where he is listed as the wide receiver 33 rest of the season. The problem is I think a lot of people in more casual leagues are going to have him look be looking at him ranked a lot higher than that. If you're playing in work leagues, casual leagues, home leagues, I think people are going to look at Ken Allen as a top 15 wide receiver rest of the season. If you can get anything close to those prices, you move off of him in a heartbeat. But again, even if you can use him as a as a as a throw-in piece to get a much better deal done and get to a better player, I think with Keenan Allen, that's probably the best place to go right now. If you have the depth to do it, Keenan Allen's still not a bad flex option, but he is going to be very hit or miss as a flex option just because of the amount of guys that are in that offense demanding targets. And so, if you can get another flex option, if you're moving him straight up for a flex option that is more consistent, I like that move. Or if you're again, if you're up-tiering to a better wide receiver, I like that. I like Keenan Allen. I like this offense, but at the end of the day, he's going to be too hit or miss for me and I think he's definitely overperforming compared to what he's going to be rest of season from week eight on out.
So, I'm going to kind of generalize this next sell, and that's going to be your quote unquote elite rushing QBs. Um, again, most of you guys are playing in one QB formats. That's the standard for redraft. And look, th this was something that was kind of a hot conversation, a hot topic, uh, before the season started, and that was these rushing QBs, these elite top three to four guys are falling way too far. Um, they're falling to the late third round. They're falling to the fourth round sometimes. And at that point, you just have to take them. And while that was understandable, the reason that they were falling is just crystal clear for the third season in a row with these guys. I, I mean, the the the level of investment and the cost of these elite level rushing QBs is just not worth it when you can get guys at skill positions that on a week-to-week basis are giving you a competitive advantage at wide receiver and running back over your league mates that you're going up against. And it really doesn't have to do even with just these individual rushing QBs disappointing necessarily. They still have a very high floor. Josh Allen's still going to have very productive games. Lamar Jackson is still going to go off every once in a while, but so is Patrick Mahomes. And Patrick Mahomes was going in the ninth round of your startups this past season. Uh, Dak Prescott is averaging 21 points per game. Drake May and Baker Mayfield are averaging just under 21 points per game. Daniel Jones is averaging 20 points per game. Every single one of these guys, if you plug them into your starting lineup, is giving you a nice advantage, a high floor because they're in high octane, productive offenses with high upside every single week. And they're really, when you compare the the production gap between these guys and the and the elite rushing guys up top, there's not that much of a gap. There just isn't. And and they're so much cheaper. Like so many of the trades involving Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaylen Hurts, Jaden Daniels. Jaden Daniels will be different now because he's injured for who knows how long with that hamstring injury, but they're just all so pricey and it's not worth paying two startable flex wide receiver and running backs plus a QB that's that's that's lesser to go get a Lamar or Hurts or a Daniels like we just saw in the Flock League, guys. And I understand it looks bad because Hurts is or or because Daniels is now hurt, but again, when you're downgrading significantly at a skill position to get an upgrade at quarterback just by the fact that it's a onesie position that it's QB or you could honestly apply the same thing to tight end, but mainly QB because like it's it's it matters so much more at the quarterback position to not make that move because the difference between QB1, QB2, QB3 versus QB 10, 11, 12 at the moment on a week-to-week basis, their upside is very similar. And I understand again, I want to reinforce, I understand the floor that these rushing QBs offer, but the reality is what you are costing your team at wide receiver and running back specifically by owning one of these guys or what you're costing your team when you're paying up for one of these guys is not worth the sacrifice at the skill positions. It's not. It's going to hurt your team significantly. So that's my spiel with these rushing upside QBs, these elite level QBs, and I honestly don't think they're worth the investment right now.
Jordan Mason is going to be a guy that we're going to recommend as a sell as well. Look, Jordan Mason was a guy that really we thought he was overvalued coming into the season. We didn't draft any Jordan Mason. I didn't draft one Jordan Mason.
Um, and you know, against Philadelphia, you're looking at his last since he had that 23-point game the first week after Jones got injured. 10, 12, and 11 points. And we've already had him as a sell, but he has some tough rushing defenses in the next couple weeks. Obviously, the Los Angeles Chargers actually ended up being a pretty good matchup for Jonathan Taylor. Detroit is tough. Baltimore's a good matchup. Chicago is a mixed bag. Green Bay is tough. And so, you know, with Mason, you also have Aaron Jones returning. And I think Aaron Jones is going to be back I think week week eight. So, that is, uh, that is this week. And so, I'm not sure you can sell him. However, if you can, let's just look at where the experts have him ranked over on the site and see if we can spot some inconsistencies here. Jordan Mason right now ranked next to Chase Brown. I would take the shot on Chase Brown over Jordan.
At least he's a running back one rest of the season. Kenneth Walker, I would probably take the shot on Kenneth Walker over Jordan Mason. Rico Dowdle, I would take the shot on Rico Dowdle over Jordan Mason right now. Roandre Stevenson, yes, I would also take the shot on Roandre Stevenson. So, there are four backs right there that you could move realistically. Again, these are these are the expert consensus values in the site, uh, for Jordan Mason and feel pretty good about that. And so, um, I, I think with with Mason, when you're looking at some of the trades that have gone down for Jordan Mason, I mean, he is fetching, you can use Jordan Mason and DJ Moore, for example, to uptier to a guy like Breece Hall. This is a trade that happened in a super, uh, sorry, a redraft 10-team league. Uh, you can use a lot. So, a lot of people are using Jordan Mason as pieces to uptier, and I like that as well. He can be a throw-in. He can be depth for somebody else when in reality, he's not actually depth. Um, so I like him in that utilization case as well. Somebody took like George Mason, Rico Dowdle, they need wide receiver, and moved him for Jaylen Wadd. Boom. I like that a lot as well. Um, somebody did trade Jordan Mason straight up for Chase Brown, which I think is a very smart trade. Somebody traded Jordan Mason for Amari and Hampton. If you can afford to do that, and the Hampton owner's freaking out, you got to do that. Um, somebody traded Jordan Mason straight up for Raandre. A lot of these trades where we're talking about the one for ones for Jordan Mason are happening. The reality is I think I would prefer a lot of the guys in the range of Jordan Mason over Jordan Mason rest of the season. His outlook wasn't great when he was the starter and now he's going to be sharing that backfield with Aaron Jones for the rest of the year. I don't really care to have him. I'm also pretty skeptical of that Vikings offense with J.J. McCarthy coming back. So, there's that as well. Uh, with Mason, I think if you can get any of the guys ranked around him, I would go ahead and pivot off of Jordan Mason for them.
Look, last sell video we had Marv as a sell, and I'm doubling down on on Marv, uh, here. I am so done with Marv. I'm so done that I sold him on my team in the Flock League, and who knows, it might come back and bite me at the end of the season. I legitimately don't care at this point because we know what Marv is at this point. He has had one game this season with double-digit targets. Every other game it's been 6, 5, 6, 5, 6, 5. He is a wide receiver three at best. He's had three double-digit games this year. One was low-end double digits, 13 points. The other two were salvaged by touchdowns with 18 points a piece. The rest has been single digits, not even close, not productive. When he gets those targets, they are low efficiency targets because they're generally down the field and he's not bringing them down. He's not taking them home. It doesn't matter if it's Brassette. It doesn't matter if it's Kyler. Offense is cheeks and it has run through Trey McBride and Trey McBride alone. Arizona is one of the best or one of the worst teams in the NFL at this point. They keep it close. They're a little bit scrappy. They try to stay competitive. They don't have the talent. They don't have the ability. They don't have the consistency to win a lot of games the rest of the season. They just don't. And Marv is not helping here. They're heading into the by-week here after that. They have Dallas, which is a great matchup for Marv. Green Bay was supposed to be a great matchup for Marv. Tennessee was supposed to be a great matchup for Marv. San Fran was supposed to be a great matchup for Marv. He had one double-digit game. One double-digit game in all those matchups. If you want someone to have a big day against Dallas, I'm telling you, it's going to be McBride. Marv may have a couple more big days this season because again, that's the type of wide receiver that he is. He's kind of a big play guy that can, you know, score five points with like one touch. But we can't keep going back and forth with Marv and just saying, "Oh, Kyler sucks. It's his fault. Maybe Marv can kind of maybe they can figure it out rest of the season." They're not. Now Kyler's hurt. Maybe Bruceet will figure it out with Marv. He doesn't. Okay. Well, it's Brett's the backup. Now that Kyler's back, Marv's gonna be fine. I know. We just said that we weren't cool with Kyler throwing the ball to Marv because he doesn't get get the ball to him consistently. Again, let me reinforce, through almost the first half of the season, one double-digit target game. One. And right now, an expert consensus, I don't think the experts have adjusted. Honestly, I have maybe overadjusted. You could criticize me for overadjusting with Marv, but again, as an owner heavy investor of Marvin Harrison Jr., I was being realistic with Marv and being totally honest from what I saw. This dude is not looking up rest of season. He's not. For the love trade Marv for Devontae Smith right now. They are two spots apart on expert consensus. For the love trade Marv for Jaylen Wadd. They are back-to-back on expert consensus. DK Metcalf, T. Higgins, Pitman, Addison, all guys that are ranked below Marv right now. I would take any one of them in a heartbeat over Marvin Harrison the rest of the season. It's not even close.
All right, last one we're going to have for you here is Isaiah Pacheco. Um, Pacheco saw some increased usage because, uh, when you're looking at the week before, um, it was actually the Detroit game where he saw 77% snap share. Um, he, Kareem Hunt was hurt essentially, so he ended up getting more carries there against Las Vegas in a game where they were absolutely blowing, you know, blowing that team out and Bashard Smith came in garbage time. And we saw 56% of snaps, had 15 carries, which was a season high for 57 yards. Still not efficient, but did have a touchdown as well. Um, with Pacheco, you've seen, you know, two weeks of an increased snap share and then increased fantasy production. And to me, if if I, if there's even a slight chance I can I can get any of the cost back of what I spent on Pacheco in the draft, I am doing it and I'm not even thinking about it at this point. And so with Pacheco, I don't want to try to, he's not somebody I feel comfortable starting my lineup. That, that's just that's just what it is. Um, so, you know, I think Pacheco being used as a piece to uptier is a good idea. Um, I also think there are plenty of guys in this range that you could potentially move Isaiah Pacheco for straight up that I would prefer. Um, he's going around guys like again, Raandre Stevenson, Rico Dowdle, Chuba Hubbard, Chase Brown, like, yes, yes, yes, yes. The guys below are a little bit tougher. Trey Benson, I would be a little bit more comfortable buying. I think Trey Benson is a good buy right now. Um, but when you're looking even at the overall rankings, let's just pull up so we can see some, uh, some wide receivers potentially as well that we could trade for with with Isaiah Pacheco because I think that's a move that a lot of people are making as well. They're just getting off of trying to flex Isaiah Pacheco and going to actually, you know, flexing a wide receiver that could be worth a freaking crap. Um, the wide receivers in this range like directly around him are Jauan Jennings and Romeo Doubs. I don't love that. Calvin Ridley, Keon Coleman. You have to go a little bit higher here and you start getting into some some interesting names. Josh Downs is is two or three spots higher. Shakir Godwin, DJ Moore, Matthew Golden, and Wandale Robinson. I honestly think Wandale is a move you could get done and I would really prefer Wandale over Pacheco in my flex spot rest of the season. And you don't have to go too much higher on the wide receiver range to get to like Jameson Williams, Travis Hunter, Ricky Pearsall. And so I also think he's a good uptier piece again because you're giving somebody depth who you know, if you can consolidate, that's always the best move in fantasy football anyways. But I don't want to try to have to guess rest of season if Pacheco is going to get the work or if it's going to be Hunt or if it's going to be Smith or whatever. I would rather just have somebody that I can actually put in my flex spot and feel good about. And so Pacheco, since he's had even a glimpse of hope, I'm I'm out on him. I, I do not want him. Don't, Don't put your fantasy hopes, don't put your flex spot hopes on Isaiah Pacheco this year. Please don't.
All right, hopefully that helps. Again, um, you know, every league is different. You're not going to be able to sell all of these guys in your league for what we mentioned, but at least you know, try to shop them and see what you can get. Never sell low on guys to where you're losing a trade. But you can check out our trade calculator. Um, if you want to want to see if you're selling guys for a good price, the trade calculator will prevent you from making like a disastrous fantasy football trade. I got the link in the pin comment. Create a free account, code domain. You can use it for free. You can use the trade calculator. You can use all our tools on the site as well. Appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching. We'll see you here soon.