Transcription
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Hello friends, I am Vikas Bagaria, SEBI registered Research Analyst. Welcome to my YouTube channel, Vikas Bagaria. This week, we are going to look at the weekly outlook for gold and silver. Gold and silver are standing at a crucial turning point. Either we will see a supercharged rally of wave five, or upon breaking support, we will see a deeper correction of wave C.
So friends, first of all, we will talk about the Comex gold chart. See, after wave five, the correction of wave A was completed. The bounce back of wave B has also been completed. And now what? The correction of wave C can open up. But before that, prices are stuck near the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement zone. If this support zone breaks, then definitely the correction zone of wave C will be seen opening up. So where is the support? $4000, $3980, this is an important support cluster. If this breaks, then definitely zones up to $380, $3750 will be seen opening up at lower levels. But if the resistance level breaks, the resistance of 418 breaks, then somewhere we will see ourselves hitting resistance zones of 4180 and 4250.
Talking about the setup of technical indicators, we are seeing a negative crossover on MACD for prices. ADX is sideways to indecisive, and RSI is trading below 50. That means it is indicating more towards weakness.
So friends, now we will talk about MCX gold, where MCX gold, after coming to the support of a classical wave four, has given a bounce back and is locked inside a triangle pattern. A breakout or breakdown will be seen initiating a major move.
So friends, first of all, I will tell you something for your knowledge. This wave theory, as the candles move forward, we have to shift the candles from the lower candles. So, it is possible that sometimes you are seeing the fifth wave. Then after 10 days, if you look, it will be the third wave. Why? Because the data from below is shifting upwards. Okay? So keep this in mind. Do not get confused.
Now, if we talk about MCX gold, the top of wave three has arrived. The correction of wave four has happened. Before the rally of wave five, it is locked inside a symmetric triangle. And here it is tightly squeezed near the 20 EMA. Now either a breakout will form from here, or a breakdown will form. This means it is a classical pressure cooker zone, where we will see extreme volatility.
Friends, if we talk about momentum indicators, MACD is flat, meaning momentum is low. RSI is sideways. That means no strength is being seen in the market. And ADX is also hovering around the 20 value. That means momentum can build up in the near future.
So friends, if we understand from the technical charts, big moves will be loaded in MCX gold. This week, either support will break or resistance will break. So now, if the support of ₹121500, ₹121500, which is Friday's low, breaks, then ₹12700, which was also the low of the previous week, this support, these are both support ranges. If both of these break, then ₹17500, ₹15000, the next support levels will open, and this move will be very wild and very volatile.
On the other hand, if gold moves above ₹1225800, and closes above this resistance zone, then it can move up to ₹1227800. The main wild volatile move of Fibonacci and Elliott Wave will be seen starting above ₹1229800 and ₹1330500.
So friends, now it is the turn of silver. Talking about MCX silver, after the correction of wave 4, amidst the rally of wave 5, it has fallen and is trying to find internal strength, hovering near the support zone of Fibonacci's 38% to 61.8%. The 20 EMA is acting as a dynamic resistance, above which MCX silver prices are having trouble trading. As soon as it goes above it, selling pressure is seen. But the 50 EMA is providing a dynamic support.
So what should you do in silver? What should be your strategy? See friends, if we talk about technical support and resistance, ₹150000 and ₹149000, which we also mentioned last week as potential support, have provided support. This week too, what did we get? Near a trend line, we saw the formation of a hammer candlestick pattern, which indicates that a reversal is on the cards. If a reversal occurs, then for you, the support will remain ₹150, ₹149. But the resistance zone in silver is now ₹156700. If it crosses ₹156700, then it can move up to its previous resistance clusters, ₹1660 and ₹1664. The rally of wave 5 will start above ₹168000. Moves above ₹168000 will be more volatile and will be seen becoming wild.
See, if we talk about momentum indicators in silver, MACD is flat. RSI is hovering around 50, and ADX is also sideways. So there is no momentum or trend. This will have to develop. For it to develop, what can happen? This time you will have to proceed with a dual strategy in silver. If the support of ₹150, ₹49000 breaks at the bottom, then it can come to retest its important double bottom support up to ₹1400, and this move will be very volatile and very fast.
On the other hand, if it sustains above ₹156700, it will try to hit resistance clusters up to ₹160470. So, keep an eye on both sides.
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