Transcription
Hello everyone, it's Atriid and I'm making a short video as promised to show you how I analyze a very specific altcoin. We're going to focus on NEAR of NEAR Protocol, so a Layer 1 blockchain crypto, and we'll look a bit at how things are done.
So, a quick disclaimer right away: this is a video that will be quite long, but even so, I'm not showing you 100% of how I do things. There are things I'm not showing you on purpose because I don't want to reveal my secret sauce, but you'll see, it's still quite comprehensive and it's actually to show you the extent, especially, of the work that needs to be done in analyzing each crypto you consider buying. So it's mainly for those arriving from YouTube on Discord to see a bit of everything I talk about in videos when I talk about financial analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and so on and so forth, because this video will be posted in the private group, of course, but also in the public welcome group so that everyone can see it. It's also why I'm not showing everything, because it's publicly accessible.
When you analyze a crypto, it's not enough to just look at a graph and say, "It looks nice, the price is there, let's go for it." Not at all. Technical analysis is something that comes very late in the analysis of a cryptocurrency. We will first analyze many things, starting with fundamental analysis. What is fundamental analysis? It's looking a bit at what the project is, what the project's utility is, how the team intends to develop it. By the way, what is this team? Do the people at the head of this company have the profile and skills to successfully carry out their project? Because you can see cryptos. For example, we saw the Mantra scam very recently where, ultimately, when you do a bit of research on the founders, well, they participated in several scams, many companies that failed, and so on and so forth. So confidence in them and their abilities could be a bit reduced. We will also look to see if there are investment funds placed on the crypto because this also tells us something: if we have a slight doubt, saying that subjectively we like the project, maybe it's subjective. Does it objectively appeal to other people? And so, seeing a multitude of investment funds considered professionals who are also invested in the crypto, well, it reinforces the cognitive bias of saying, "Okay, the fundamentals are good" because very often these investment funds got in very, very early in the project, meaning at a time when the token wasn't even listed on Binance, on Coinbase, and so on. So we really had a fundraising where they believed in the project and said, "This is strong for the market." So we'll go into it. So we'll look at all that.
And once we've finished the fundamentals, we can start looking at the chart data. So, chart data, what I really like to see, and I do it before Tokenomics, before financial analysis, is to see a bit if the fundamentals are good. Look a bit at what the cryptocurrency is doing. So first, look at the chart of the cryptocurrency itself, but also look at what the cryptocurrency is doing against Bitcoin, against Ethereum, and against the rest of the altcoin market. Because I tell you very often in YouTube videos, the goal isn't to arrive and achieve what are called "at market" performances. What does that mean? It means you arrive on January 1st, you buy Bitcoin or an altcoin, you sell it on December 31st, and ultimately you get the performance that the altcoin achieved during the year. The goal, in any case, when you are in the Millennium group and you pay a subscription, is to outperform the market. So we want to find altcoins that will perform better than Bitcoin and perform better than other cryptos. In any case, for the majority, maybe not in their entirety, but we want to grab that top 10 of cryptos for the year because the goal is to make as much profit as possible. And so all the work we're going to do is solely to achieve this result.
Once we've done that part, we'll move on to Tokenomics. So what is Tokenomics? It's actually looking at how the team has planned to manage the token issuance. Because you can see that the circulating supply, in any case, you'll see it in a few minutes, the circulating supply of tokens, it's managed, everything is prepared by the team in advance, and there are mechanisms we like, mechanisms we like much less. I'll present them to you. After that, I look at financial analysis. So if we've ticked all the boxes in the three previous stages, I move on to financial analysis, which will be looking at the company's results. Is the crypto making money? Is it making a lot of money? Can we estimate that it will make even more in the future? Compare it to direct competitors. So if we take NEAR, it's directly compared to Layer 1 blockchains to see what competitors are doing and to determine if, within the same basket of cryptos, meaning cryptos in the same sector, is the one we have in front of us one that will objectively perform better. I very often use the example of McDonald's versus Burger King. I mean, it's the same sector, fast food, sandwiches, burgers. If McDonald's performs much better in terms of its economic data than Burger King, and you have the choice to invest in one or the other, you will necessarily choose McDonald's, and well, it's the same here, we want the one that will objectively be able to perform the most and attract the most investors.
Once we've finished all that, we have two steps left. Technical analysis, finally we get to the chart where we say this asset can be bought, at what level will I buy it, and at what level will I sell it. And then, we'll move on to liquidations. This is the last point in the analysis, it's looking a bit at what's happening behind the scenes, meaning what's happening with people who are positioned. Are there a lot of people shorting, meaning betting on the asset going down? Are there a lot of people betting on it going up? Or do we have what are called liquidation clusters? We'll get to all that. I'll explain what it is for those who are the most beginner and don't really know what we're talking about. So you see, we're already at 5 minutes 35 of introduction. It's going to last a while, but you have to hang in there, you have to hang in there because it's super important because it's exactly the work you should be able to do if you want to master this vast field of activity which is crypto and globally finance if you want to move to the stock market because it's the same thing, just a bit more complicated. So as I was saying, I don't necessarily show everything, but there's already quite a bit. So follow until the end.
So if we start with the fundamentals, it's a part that I'll summarize briefly because it's not the most interesting part for analysis. This is something everyone can do. You go to the website of the crypto in question, you must go, first step, read what is called the white paper. The white paper is the kind of business plan that the team put together to attract investors, in which they write about the project, the utility, the token issuance, and so on. I'm not reading it with you for NEAR because these are elements we'll see in the video. So we won't bore ourselves with reading. I'll show it directly in images. So what is NEAR? It's a Layer 1 cross-chain blockchain, as we call it. So it can integrate several blockchains onto its own blockchain. So that's cool. And it can host projects like, for example, Solana hosted a lot of meme coins. So that's also something to look at: are there projects developing on the blockchain? Because if there are a lot of projects developing on the blockchain, it will necessarily develop the blockchain. We only have to think about the enormous pump of Solana, which was mainly due to meme coins, particularly the Trump one, which generated a lot, a lot of liquidity and drove Solana up at the same time. So these are all things we'll look at, and typically, the project itself is cool, but there's nothing super amazing. There are plenty of Layer 1 blockchains. We know many. There's Sui, there are others that are more performant, but we'll perhaps get to that later. So project-wise, it's cool. Utility is great, but we're not looking at something revolutionary, okay? We're looking at something good.
Regarding the team, if we look a bit, we have access here to several members of the team, in any case the founders. And what interests me above all is not so much the CTO, the advisors, and so on, but rather the founder. Do the founders really have the skills to successfully lead a project of such magnitude? Because to have a crypto that isn't a scam, you need real skills. So I've done my little research on these two guys. You can do it too, see their LinkedIn profiles, there are plenty of articles about them. Broadly speaking, they are computer engineers from Google, in the tech business for years and years, they didn't start last year. So I'm telling you, they are giants in their field. So on that, we are already reassured, they have the skills to successfully lead a project, and that's what we want. We don't want people who arrived saying, "I have a bit of money, I don't master what I'm doing, and I..." Because again, when power is in the hands of one person, we want that person to master it objectively. So it's much better to have someone who has objective skills rather than an image. What is subjective, you just have to look. Vitalik, for example, the founder of Ethereum, if we just look at his image, I think you've already seen posts on social media where he does the sponge dance or "My God, it's horrible." You'd never buy Ethereum if you relied on his appearance and so on. That's again, that's a subjective opinion. On the other hand, objectively, he's a giant, he has all the skills, so investors trust him. It's the same here. So team-wise, we're good now.
Now, what interests me a bit, so you see I go through things quite quickly, but it takes time to research, but I go through them quite quickly because it's not the most important thing for me. At the next step, what I like to see, I said it at the beginning of this video, is to see a bit who is on the project. So on that, I go to Dropstab, it's a free site. You can go on it, and if you scroll down a bit, we're on NEAR, if you scroll down a bit, you have the list of investors here. It's free data for NEAR, so it's not up to date. You can look on Dropstab, sorry, it's not always up to date, but you can see that there are top-tier investment funds like Pantera Capital, everyone knows them, Multicoin, Andreessen Horowitz as well. So that's cool, it's reassuring. If funds like these have entered, and 43 of them according to Dropstab, it means that fundamentally we are reassured that yes, NEAR is something that's not bad. So Dropstab doesn't show, how to say, the data up to date. They don't have all the data. I won't show you the site where I get my data from because it's a paid site that nobody knows, and I'm very happy to have it. And we're rather looking at this range of funds that are on it at the moment. So quite a lot of people.
Now, what's interesting is to ask ourselves, is this large number of people here because they got in very early in the project? Did they buy very late? Have they already taken profits? And especially, what is their ROI at the moment, when we are precisely in a major price correction? What is ROI? It's return on investment. And if we scroll down, we also have information on Dropstab, and for once, it's correct. They are around x 5.13 of their initial investment. All the funds that are still on the project. So it's not a huge ROI. And so we can say that the funds that are on it, that haven't sold yet, expect higher prices in the future to sell. We'll also see this in the last part, which is liquidations. Funds cannot sell what they have at the moment if there isn't a strong buying counterparty that can come and buy their sales. And for that, they are counting on the last point of the analysis, which is liquidations, and I'll explain why at the end of the video. So, we have people, great, we can say that even if the crypto has terrible financial data and so on, we could still have a retracement because if these big players are still in it and haven't sold, it means they expect to sell higher. So that's already good news for those who are on NEAR if the rest of the video is a bit negative for this crypto.
So once we've seen all that, great, we know the competitors. Layer 1 blockchains, we can see here. You can click a bit on the crypto narrative. So blockchain, we can see that there are many blockchains that are outperforming, well currently, well not outperforming, but have a higher market cap than NEAR because Dropstab ranks by market cap. So we have Aptos, we have Sui, we have Dot, even Polkadot, yes, Sui, and so on, and then all the somewhat known cryptos. So we'll look a bit later at why NEAR isn't first, why its market cap isn't the one that attracts the most people. And we'll see that later in the video because it's interesting. I'll take the McDonald's vs. Burger King example again. We want the best. So if we have to choose a crypto on the Layer 1 or even Layer 2 narrative, we want the two best. So is NEAR among the two best? We'll answer that during this video.
So once we've looked at that, I'll look at the chart. So here I'll look at the chart. I'm in logarithmic. To switch to logarithmic, you need to come here, check the little L on TradingView. If you check the little A, the chart is different. It's the price evolution over time. Whereas in logarithmic, it's the price evolution relative to the market cap. Which changes. Why does it change? Simply because there is what is called vesting. What is vesting? It's a token issuance. As time goes by, the team will issue more and more tokens of the crypto onto the market. So you will have a circulating supply that will arrive, that will arrive, which can potentially cause problems in a number of cases, and so, necessarily, if you have an increasing circulating supply to maintain the same price for the crypto, you must necessarily have buying demand because the more supply there is, the larger the market cap must be to maintain the same price. So that's why the chart in logarithmic is not the same, and I advise you to switch to logarithmic to get a much more accurate view of what's happening with cryptos.
So the first thing I don't like too much with NEAR is that we see that since the market top in 2022 for NEAR, early 2022, we are in a downtrend. We made a lower low, we are in weekly, you can see here, we made a lower low, we haven't reached this higher high. in a downtrend with what appears to be only a retracement in these downtrends. So already, I don't like that too much because there are many cryptos that have a completely opposite chart where we make higher highs and retrace, a sign of a clearly bullish dynamic. I won't show you which crypto because, of course, this is a public video, so I won't show you one that outperforms all the others, necessarily. So already, I don't like that too much.
Next, I'll check against Bitcoin because, again, I told you at the beginning of the video, we want a crypto that outperforms the market and therefore outperforms Bitcoin. And here, we see that NEAR against Bitcoin, it's not really great. No comment needed. Regarding ETH, it's the same. We had a retracement between 2023 and May 2024, but since then, we've been bearish against ETH. And when you know that ETH, at the time I'm making this video, April 17, 2025, we are looking at an ETH crypto that is extremely weak. To think that we might be looking at a crypto even weaker than Ethereum. I'll let you be the judge of the situation, but for me, the little box I want to tick is not ticked.
And then we look at NEAR against the total global market, Total 3. And again, it's not amazing what it indicates. It indicates that NEAR, compared to a majority of altcoins excluding Ethereum, NEAR does not outperform a majority of altcoins. On the contrary, we can see that it underperforms, it's in a downtrend, it underperforms the majority of altcoins that make up the crypto world. So here, we clearly have things that I already don't like too much. So for the video, we'll look a bit at what could explain why it looks like this. What did investors see that doesn't attract them? That's the fundamental question. And so, to look at that, we'll first look at the vesting. Is there anything regarding vesting? Regarding token issuance that is blocking NEAR and causing problems?
First step, we're back on Dropstab and we'll look a bit at what's happening with the circulating supply. Regarding the circulating supply, you can see here, we're at a market cap of about 2.5 billion. So it remains a large crypto, and according to Dropstab, we have a supply, so a circulating supply of 96.85%. So what does that mean? It means that the team has planned to issue a certain number of tokens over time, and that at the moment we're speaking, about 96% of the tokens have been issued. So there would be about 3% of tokens left to issue. So when we see that, we say great. This means that in the future, there won't be much selling pressure because there won't be much supply issued into circulation. However, I told you to be careful with free data because it can be a bit wrong, and the data on Dropstab is wrong.
What we can see on a paid site is that, on the contrary, we have a vesting where there aren't 3% of tokens left, but there are many more tokens to be issued, and the vesting is gradually calming down. You can see here, it's the curve of tokens being released. If I remove the infographic a bit, you can see that from the beginning until here, today, we had a curve that was very high until here, then its angle gently calmed down and will calm down even more from October 2025. But we have a token issuance that is increasing over time and is currently planned until almost summer 2030. So in fact, there are much more than 3% left. And so why is Dropstab wrong at the moment? For a simple reason. And again, this is a check that is not ticked. It's here, regarding the max supply. What is max supply? It's the maximum circulating supply of tokens. And you can see that there's nothing here. Why? Because NEAR doesn't have a max supply. This means that, like Ethereum, like Doge, the team can issue as many tokens as it wishes. So generally, they fix this in advance in the white paper. They say, "We will issue X tokens under Y conditions." But ultimately, when you look at it, they have all the power to issue new tokens. And we don't like that. We want a scarcity mechanism for the supply. So, meaning, we want fewer and fewer tokens to be available over time. We want buying pressure because, naturally, people will say, "Oh, if the crypto is cool, I'll buy it, I'll buy it." And what happens when supply decreases and buyers increase? Well, the price mechanically increases. This is actually what Bitcoin is based on. You all know the Bitcoin halving. The circulating supply decreases and is halved every 4 years.
There are cryptos with excellent vesting. Let's take Tao, for example, they also have vesting aligned with Bitcoin, so with a predetermined halving, a maximum number of tokens in history that will be fixed, and therefore, naturally, much stronger buying pressure. Other cryptos are similar, but those with an infinite supply, we don't like that too much because, naturally, there's all the latitude to create tokens. And what I like even less is this little part that is sometimes not necessarily important but that I don't like too much. It's here, this little blue rectangle here, called TBD, where TBD is a token issuance that is possible at any time at the team's free decision. And so we can see that here, the little blue box is equivalent to 178 million dollars of NEAR. So that's not great. We know there's very little chance they'll issue 178 million at once because it would probably crash the crypto a bit. So the goal isn't to sabotage their own project. But again, that they have this power, well, I'm not a huge fan. After all, it depends on the cryptos. There are cryptos that are so performant, like, for example, we'll see, that they also have a TBD, but the story is a bit different. But for follow-up, I'll make another video. I'll explain why it's different in that case.
So we have an inflation mechanism. What I also like to see is, well, when are the tokens finally released? Because if they tell us there's a token release in 2 years, well, we know that for 2 years, we won't have too many problems. It's a bit like what's happening with HODL. Vesting is a punctual problem. There are periods in the year when you shouldn't buy HODL, and there are periods when there are periods in the year when you can clearly buy HODL because the vesting is punctual, it's not spread out every day, every week, and so on. If we look at NEAR, it's clearly spread out every day. It's really a small, small issuance every day. Every day, every day, you can see it, there's about 519,000 dollars of NEAR being released every day. So you can see, tomorrow, in 2 days, in 3 days, and so on and so forth. And you can scroll down as much as you want. You can see it, the curve is almost linear until October 2025. We clearly have half a million dollars of NEAR being released every day. Remember this figure well. In any case, I've noted it. You'll see why it's super important to remember it. 519,808 dollars. Okay.
So, next step is to look a bit at what the inflation mechanism is. So you know, there are 500, oops, where is it? There are 500,000, about 519,000 dollars that are issued every day. What is the inflation mechanism? Precisely, by how much the crypto devalues each time we issue tokens. And for the price to remain the same, there must be at least 519,808 dollars of additional demand every day. So we end the day with an excess of buyers in the exchange for at least that amount. Okay? And what will interest me is not so much that. What will interest me is the situation where we remove buyers and sellers from the equation and ask ourselves, has the crypto, has the team planned a mechanism to combat this inflation mechanism? In a world where there would be no buyers, no sellers, and where we would let the crypto fend for itself with what the team has planned for it, is what the team has planned conducive to scarcity of supply, or is it conducive to a drop in the crypto? And to answer that, we'll look at the financial analysis.
So here we are on NEAR for its financial analysis as well. This is paid data. You can look for it, but it's paid, so it's expensive. It costs more than my subscription. So there you go. But of course, we're talking about crypto. So all the financial data for cryptos isn't necessarily super easy to find, and most don't even have financial data because they don't make money yet. So it's nice to find one that does. What will interest us is to ask ourselves, okay, does this crypto make money? Does it make money? To what extent is it profitable? So you can see here we have the financial statements, so it's the financial statements quarter after quarter. So if we zoom out, we can go up to around 2021. But what interested us, of course, isn't 2021, it's rather the last year. Why? Because, as I told you, there are cryptos that are booming because the narrative is good at a certain time of the year or period. For example, we had the metaverse in 2021, it was really super fun to see all the metaverse cryptos pumping everywhere because everyone was talking about it. Now, everyone doesn't care much about it. So NEAR is pretty much the same. We want to look at what's happening in the last year. Is there demand or not? And understand why.
So when we look at the chart, we won't look at it again, you can go back up the video, but you saw that the charts weren't amazing. So, can we have something financially that would explain that? The first mistake many people make is to look at this column, or rather this line, the fees. So what are fees? They are the fees that the crypto takes each time an operation is performed on its blockchain. So, for example, you go on the NEAR blockchain, you make a crypto transfer, whatever. Well, the crypto takes fees, and that's the money it will make. So it's a bit like what's on the asset side in terms of revenue. So what we can see already is that in the first quarter of 2024, we had 2.1 million in fees, 3.2 million in Q2, an increase, 1.8 in Q4, in Q3, sorry, then 2.3 in Q4. So on that, you shouldn't just say, "Oh, there's a drop, that's bad." You need to look at the chart again. What happened in Q1, Q2, Q3? So we can see at Q1 2024, here we have an increase, and as you have an increase, very generally, people talk about it, people go on the network, there are more and more users on the network, the more it goes up, and so, naturally, transaction fees are increasingly high. Which explains why in Q1, we have 2.1 million. Q2, it's not the same. Sorry? Q2. Oops, we are from here, here we had a clear stagnation of the price then a price correction at the end of Q2. And so there, it's interesting because we can see that the financial data reflects it once we stumble a bit. And here, what's interesting is that even though the price wasn't going up anymore and even dropped, we made 52% more in fees. So that's nice. Q3, nothing much happens, and then we're rather low, so it's normal that we drop in terms of figures. Q4, we increase a bit again, up to here. Okay, great, 2.3 million. So far, nothing to report.
Now, that's not all there is to look at, of course, because fees don't tell the whole story. Especially, what we'll look at isn't the company's revenue. Revenue is good, but profit is better. Again, if you have McDonald's and Burger King, I'll use the principle again. McDonald's has a revenue of one billion. Fees are equivalent to all the sales McDonald's makes. Burger King has a revenue of 500 million, so half. I don't know if I said McDonald's 1 billion, but yes, McDonald's 1 billion, Burger King 500 million. So half, we can't say McDonald's is doing better, we go for McDonald's. No, what about, what about if McDonald's, out of its 1 billion in revenue, has 900 million in expenses, so a net profit of 100 million dollars. What happens if Burger King, out of its 500 million in revenue, has only 100 million in expenses and therefore makes a profit of 400 million, a profit four times higher than McDonald's? We would go for Burger King. So it's not the revenue that counts, it's especially the income actually generated by the crypto. And that's where things get a bit exciting for our dear NEAR.
If we take Q1, we have 2.1 million in fees and we have expenses here of 31.9 million dollars. So, well, we have fees, but we have 15 times more expenses. Why? Here, you have to go look at the expenses. I went to look at them, and there's not necessarily much that justifies it. Small aside, Polkadot, for example, I made a video about it, it also has abysmal financial data, but Polkadot invests millions and millions and millions in marketing, etc., in project development. So that's a small excuse. For NEAR, I looked, and their excuse isn't as legitimate as for Polkadot. So we have enormous expenses. That's a fact. What's interesting is to see what happens when the activity develops, do expenses increase much more than revenue? From Q1 to Q2, we increase by 52% in terms of fees. Great, expenses increase by 84%. So, expenses increase much faster than revenue. And that's a real problem. That's a real problem because we can ask ourselves about the project team's ability to manage the money they spend. Does the network cost too much? Do the developers cost too much? Is there something in the company's financial situation that was poorly thought out? This financial data reflects it. In Q3 2024, we have 1.8, 43.6. Problem with fees, we are lower than in Q1, so we could say there's less activity, fewer network fees, etc. We go from 31.9 to 43.6 million in expenses, and it continues like that and doesn't necessarily improve. So here, we're not doing well. This is a very, very big box to tick when you analyze a crypto project. And this box is not ticked. We saw that the fundamentals are ticked. Great. Chart data is not ticked.
The economic TO is not checked. Financial analysis is not checked. So already there it's a name. It's a name to enter crypto if you have cash. If you are already on it, as is the case for subscribers and undoubtedly for you who are watching the video, uh, for the majority because the majority of people are on it almost, you need to tell yourself at what point I will sell. So there, I'm talking about someone, a profile who has stablecoins and who wants to buy a crypto, to enter the market for the first time for example. And well, it's a big name already, it's a big red flag. Now, the red flag is still elsewhere. There is still another one. I'm sorry for those who had to hear it but the red flag is still elsewhere. The red flag is precisely at the level of the token inflation. At the level of the team, what they have planned to make the supply scarce. We have a burn mechanism. You can see it here. Near also implements a burning mechanism blah blah blah blah blah where they say that 70% of fees are burned like that the tokens are removed from circulation and so we have the new ones in circulation that decrease because the fees here that they take are in near tokens not in USDT or another crypto. So regarding the fees that are here, they will receive all these fees and 70% will be burned. This way the circulating supply is reduced. Now we need to do a little calculation and that's again where it gets a bit out of hand unfortunately for Near. You have to do the calculation. If we take the biggest quarter, Q2 2024, we can see that in Q2 2024, so over 3 months, April, May, June, we made 3.2 million in fees. So 3.2 million divided by 90 days in a quarter on average. That means they earned $3,555 per day. Per day, they earned this in revenue. Then, they said 30% goes into their pocket and 70% are burned. So if we look in terms of tokens that are removed from circulation, how much does that make in dollars per day? It means that per day, $2,488 worth of NEAR are burned. Do you remember a little thing I showed you? This. Every day an offer is added of NEAR of $519,800. You do 519,000 minus this figure. We won't split hairs to the dollar. This means that per day, you have an excess supply added to the market of $44,000 of NEAR. And that's a big problem. It's a big problem because we have an inflationary token, very inflationary. And so it requires constantly every day a demand higher than the supply for the price to be able to hold. Just hold, not go up, just hold. And that for me is a problem. The team has not precisely the team has not planned a sufficient supply scarcity mechanism. And so there, we are on a big problem. Another box that is not checked. So normally, I go further in financial analysis but there we can already stop there because we're not going deeper to find the little things that stink. But when the big things already stink, the little things are not positive. So on that, I will not show you the rest of the analysis that I do financially. We can already stop there because it's clearly a big name for anyone who would want to enter NEAR now. I repeat it for anyone who wants to enter now to support. So once we have finished the financial analysis, we can move on to the technical analysis of the chart and for that we return to our nice little chart. So there you can see our chart in weekly. There are areas that are isolated with red rectangles. There are people who are marked. Here it's subscribers who have NEAR. Uh so there they are not happy with the video I'm showing them. But so this part is for them. It's for you who potentially have NEAR because I was saying someone who wants to enter here, I would not advise them to buy NEAR. Now those who are on it, we saw it, there are investment funds OK who are on it who have not sold. We will have an upward leg that will arrive on the market. So can NEAR perform a little more, if only by market manipulation? And that's where it gets quite interesting. First thing I always like to look at is something called the CBD, the cost basis distribution. We are on Glass Nud, it's paid, it's 50 bucks a month, so you can go get a subscription there if you want, but it's as expensive as mine. So might as well take mine and I'll show you everything that's paid and that would cost you around €3,000 a year. And so what's quite interesting is to see the cost basis because this data clearly shows what the big portfolios are doing. And so how it works? It's simple. You have the price line here in black. So we are on NEAR for the last 6 months and you can see that we have different colors. Each color corresponds to an accumulation level of NEAR tokens. You have the scale here. When we are on dark blue, there is zero and the more we go up in colors, the more there are token units. So there 40k, what does that mean? It means that there are about 40,000 NEAR that are accumulated in this color zone. And so what interests us is to look if we have zones in orange or red because we are precisely on a lot of tokens that are accumulated. And how to read this chart? You have to read it as follows. Here you have a red line that starts here above the price. What you need to understand from there is that if you draw a straight line, it means that from here, since the price is below this red line, it means that many large portfolios have opened short positions, so they have bet on selling. Here, what you can see is that the red remains very strong until about here, or even here. Which means that here, everywhere the price started to consolidate here, the large portfolios have each time bet on the downside as soon as the price went up. So they sell high to buy low and make the difference. It's the opposite of when you bet on the upside. When you bet on the upside, you buy low to sell high and pocket the difference. So there, we clearly had the information that large portfolios were not buying NEAR at all but on the contrary were betting against its fall and so you can see something, all the orders accumulate, accumulate, accumulate and suddenly the price crashes. What you also need to read is the rest. The more the color of the line here fades, the more it means that the number of tokens that are accumulated decreases. In other words, it means that the large portfolios that have taken positions here on the sell side have gradually closed their sales in profit here, here, here, here. And what we can see is that from there, they got scared, they clearly closed all their orders almost and that we only have about 40,000 to 45,000 NEAR tokens that are leveraged, so they are hedged and bet on the downside. What is important if you are on the buyer side is to ask yourself, isn't it the opposite? Wouldn't we have a price zone with this red line that is below, indicating that the accumulation is not on the downside but on the upside. And as you can see, it's total nothingness. We have absolutely nothing from the big portfolios that are positioning themselves on NEAR. Nothing at all. We are clearly, we are starting to be a little bit here but we are clearly on something that goes through like butter. Which explains why it underperforms the market. it underperforms it because there is no one behind to support the price. And so again, that's something we don't like too much. In terms of technical analysis, what we will look at at the end is to say "Well, NEAR at the moment is not on fire. Of course, everything can evolve. Everything can evolve in the coming quarter, the next three quarters, whatever. But for now, it's not on fire." So since ATR tells us there will be an upward movement, we need to identify at what price we get out. At what price we get out with profit, for example for Jules, at what price we get out with the least possible loss, for example for Joe, right here. And for that, we move on to technical analysis where we identify very specific zones in the price. These zones are called imbalance zones. These zones are areas where the price has not been well worked. And when we have imbalances that are preceded by areas of high liquidity as we call them, well it considerably increases the chances that the market will come into them. I will explain why in a few seconds. But first, for the beginners, we take these imbalance zones. What is an imbalance zone? It's for example this zone here that I draw for you with a red rectangle. If we zoom in on the price, you can see that this big weekly candle was very powerful on the week of May 9, 2022. And what you can see is that the body of the candle, which extends from here to here, has not been entirely worked by the previous candle and the following candle. What I mean by not entirely worked. I mean that the wicks of the two preceding and following candles, so this one and this one, have not entirely covered the body of the candle of the candle here, sorry. Here, you can see that the wick worked up to here, but from there to there the body of this candle was not reworked by this candle. we went directly lower. And so there, what does that mean? It means there is a hole in the exchanges in terms of supply and demand. And that the order books and market makers, the people who are supposed to support the price on the markets to offer at all costs, so not at all costs, meaning at all costs, but at all possible prices, an offer and an exchange between supply and demand, well they failed in their task and so it's a price that has not been well worked and this type of zone constantly attracts the price and we professional traders know that these zones are zones of high potential for price rejection. Let me explain. I told you here we are in a downtrend on NEAR. You see it from here, in weekly, since we broke this low here, we are in a downtrend. In a downtrend, nothing goes straight down, on the contrary, we make upward bounces and so precisely because we are in a downtrend, for us professional traders, we know that upward bounces will end in these imbalance zones. Here there was one, another one here. You can see that we bounced into it. We stopped in it as if by magic and we made a lower low. Here, we retraced a bit because there was a lot of liquidity accumulating. We entered the major imbalance which served its rejection role and rejected the price. So here, no matter where we go on this movement, you have to ask yourself if we have imbalance zones that are big enough and that we can spot directly. So there, I've drawn them, no big suspense. There's one here that extends from $3.89 to $4.68. And if we zoom in daily, there's another one right here. Approximately $6.40. Now, the higher we go on the timeframes, the higher the probability that the market will go into them. So, there's a greater chance that the market will go into them than a chance that it will push the madness all the way to this one, or even that one, the small one I identified right there. Let's remove this one to put more visibility on the map. And so what happens is that now that we have isolated these imbalances, we need to see which ones have very, very, very large liquidation clusters nearby. And how do we spot these large liquidation clusters? I will explain to you what a liquidation cluster is in a few seconds. We spot them by zones where there are either successive bottoms at almost the same price level, or successive tops at the same price level. And so this one, which is the weekly imbalance, possesses right before it? It possesses almost a quintuple top at the same price zones. One here, one here, one here, and one here. So this zone here, roughly speaking, which extends from $3.555 to $3.81, without even looking at the liquidations on a specialized tool that I will show you later, we know that there is a lot of liquidity to be sought here. Why? Because you have to put yourself in the psychology of a retail trader. All of this, I will really go into it very, very precisely in the training I am putting in place, but it is extremely long because there is so much to see. But so a retail trader, what will he say? He will look at the first videos on social networks, on YouTube, whatever, and he will say the following. In any case, he will learn the following. It's Ah okay. Here, we have the price that was rejected once, twice, three times, four times, five times, six times. So this zone here, what is it? It's a resistance. The price will not go above it. And so if I bet on the downside, I put my stop loss where? I put it just above it. So that's what you learn, that's the basics, what's taken everywhere and what's frankly very, very wrong. Conversely, the market, who is the market mainly? It's Binance, it's Coinbase, it's Bitget, it's all the exchanges that have access to all your positions, that know where traders who have leverage have put their stops. And that's where there's a big problem in crypto, it's that these brokers who allow you to take leverage, they make money when your positions are liquidated. I don't know if you've ever traded with leverage, but notice that even if you put a stop loss, your position is closed and liquidated before the stop loss is reached, generally a few cents before because the exchange wants to avoid its own money being touched. And so this small difference that it takes in terms of commission brings it money. Therefore, you must not be fooled. We make a frightening and very serious observation, which is that brokers have an interest in making you lose if you bet with leverage because that's where they make money and so, necessarily, they will constantly make you reach these zones. Has it frankly never happened to you to see zones like this? You put a stop loss, as if by chance, your stop is hit and once it's hit, the market turns around and you say "But [ __ ] that's not possible!" Well, in fact, no, it's totally logical. It's because the market comes to take all the liquidity of people, of thousands of people who did exactly like you because they learned the wrong principles and once this liquidity has been recovered, the market has no interest in pushing the price higher or making them go lower. So, we reverse the dynamic and we go towards the next point of interest in the other direction. So that's exactly what's happening. So there we have the biggest liquidation cluster without even looking. I frankly haven't looked at the liquidations, but it's obvious here, we'll have a big cluster and we'll have smaller ones here and here. So we're going to look at these liquidations precisely to see what's going on. So there we are on i block capital. It's a paid tool again. It's 50 bucks a month to see liquidations and lots of other interesting data. So it's as expensive as the subscription I offer you. So again, take the subscription and we'll take the ticker. We'll take our dear NEAR, we'll take hop Binance and we'll look over yeah 3 months, 3 months seems good. 3 to 6 months we'll look. So there you have all the liquidations over 3 months. Why do I take 3 months? Because we're going to look at the liquidations that have been there for a while and that are accumulating, really accumulating. How to read this chart? It's very simple. It's a bit like the CBD. The more you are on royal blue, the more it means there is little money to be made. The more we are on yellow here, the more it means it's teeming. It means there is a lot of people and a lot of money to be made in these price zones. And so you can see the biggest cluster is not higher towards the small imbalances, it's towards the big one we isolated which is right after this 1 2 3 4th 5th top, a quintuple top. So between $3.60 and $4.11 it corresponds exactly to the weekly imbalance that is here and which ends up to $4.5. So for those who are positioned on NEAR, place a sell order here when the liquidation cluster is finished. Now, it's good a priori because that's not what I would tell them. It depends on when we reach this price. Because in terms of technical analysis, there is something that is hyper important, which is that the price, it's what we analyze, it's what we analyze secondarily. The price, we analyze it secondarily. What we analyze first is what period of the year we are in. The temporality before the price. First time and then price. Why? Simply because for example now, look, it's April 17th, let's engrave this video in the annals, we will have an important upward movement. The upward movement will last uh several weeks, several months, maybe 2 and a half months, 3 months. So if after 1 month we are here while we know that all cryptos will generally go up for 3 months, if after 1 month we are directly here and we have broken this liquidity cluster, I will not tell my clients to sell because we still have 2 months that are bullish and psychologically what will happen is that the more the price goes up, the more we have sellers who will fight to reverse the price, people who were liquidated here who say "No, but NEAR has already made me money before by shorting it, it's a shit crypto, I'm going to sell it even more." And so we will have clusters that will be created higher and higher, higher and higher. So as long as we have a macroeconomy and a temporality that is conducive to a bullish continuation movement, the price can absolutely continue to rise. So it will depend on where we are in the cycle and in this temporality, I repeat. So it's not as simple as that. It's not as simple as analyzing this. Seeing now April 17th, there is a cluster here. I put a sell limit here, it sells and finally well, I didn't take this time component and NEAR well it goes up, it goes up, it goes up and it reaches $10. And that's why you have to constantly follow this information, this data. I'm giving you the summarized version and we're already over 40 minutes of video. Here I'm compiling data that took me about 7 to 8 hours of research. Imagine doing that for each crypto to determine if it's a good investment or another. There are those who have time, there are those who don't have time. And so that's exactly what I offer to the community. It's me who bothers to do all this to then offer you the ones that are great, the ones that check absolutely all the boxes and the ones on which we have the most chance of making money. That's the goal. So there you go, I'll stop here. I hope this video pleased you in any case this summary of the analysis video and if you're up for it, join the group. And for all those who are already in the group, I thank you guys. It's a real pleasure to work for you and I will continue to give my best for this to continue like this. Have a good evening. Bye bye.