Transcription
So never talk to me about Japan developing nuclear weapons. If they do that, that will be the moment of their annihilation because they will constitute threat to China and China has all the power and the authorization to destroy that new menace from Japan. China will never allow Japan to become another militaristic or facetist country. And if Taiwan wants to break away from China, China will need to bring them back into China by force as President Lincoln did visav the Confederation. That is not aggression. That is not using force against another country. That is civil war as the civil war in the United States. If you are a British or Australian, don't forget all the atrocities and the crimes against humanity, against your nationals and humanity as a whole committed by the Japanese fascism in the Second World War.
Even if China says it's an internal affair, uh obviously other countries, not just the United States, but increasingly European countries, Australia, more recently Japan, they consider themselves stakeholders as well. And the reality is that uh since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, Taiwan and China have been separately governed. That that's just a fact. They are separately governed.
And I I just wonder, you know, asking Victor, you know, hypothetically, do you think that the Irish are a different group of people, a different nation to the British?
In a recent phone call between the leaders of China and the US, President Xi told President Trump that Taiwan's return to China is a key part of Beijing's global vision. Xi said it's an integral part of China's postwar international order. In China's eyes, Taiwan's future is inevitable. And if you look at the activities of several of China's Indo-Pacific neighbors, they appear to be preparing for some sort of escalation. For example, the Philippines has recently signed a defense pact with Canada to boost its standing and its defenses in the South China Sea. So, Victor, I'm going to go straight to you first. Is China preparing to take Taiwan by force?
Taiwan is part of China. There is only one China as declared by the declaration of Cairo as well as dictated by the Potan proclamation. These two documents form the pillars upon which the international order was based upon after the defeat of Nazi Germany in Europe and the Japanese fascism in the Asian-Pacific region. So the whole world recognizes this policy and there is no country in the world which can recognize both China and Taiwan at the same time and we need to be fully aware of this by defending this one China policy. We are defending the international order established back in 1945.
Ross, you're in Taiwan. How do you interpret um what Victor has said? Well, well, even even if what Victor said is true, there's still a reality that we all have to deal with and policy makers around the region and around the world who consider themselves stakeholders in this issue and and there's no denying that other countries further a field feel that they are stakeholders. So even if China says it's an internal affair, uh obviously other countries, not just the United States, but increasingly European countries, Australia, more recently Japan, they consider themselves stakeholders as well. And the reality is that uh since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, Taiwan and China have been separately governed. That that's just a fact. They are separately governed. And the only way to bring about unification would be either a peaceful way or by force. And uh at the moment uh China China's position is very clear that they reserve the right to use force. And that's why we see other countries including here in Taiwan, they're responding to that w with their own military moves. Again, that that's just a reality. It's that's not a a biased position that I'm stating, you know, I'm just stating the facts that the the two sides have been separately governed and people are preparing for the possibility that China will use force.
Victor, I want to I'm going to bring you in in a moment, Bill, but I just want to get a quick response to you from that, Victor. um particularly on that unification is either peacefully or by force because even though you say that it is one China, a lot of countries particularly the US do not um support a unilateral change to the status quo which is as Ross said they are governed separately. So any change to that status quo is it going to be peaceful or is it going to be by force? First of all, we all know there was a civil war towards the end of the 1940s. Allow me to emphasize that civil war was never brought to an official end by any means. That is the reality of the separation across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Now, if China ever uses force, it will not be an invasion. It will be a resurrection of the unfinished civil war. And we want to avoid that. We want to achieve unification by peaceful means. But if for example as Ross said other countries want to be stakeholders to be intervening in this situation that will be the resurrection of the unfinished civil war and I don't think any country in the world including the United States wants to shed the blood of their soldiers to be involved in a resurrected civil war across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Let's all work together to achieve the peaceful reunification that all of us want and let's do our best to avoid the resurrection of the unfinished civil war.
Bill, what do you make of that? If we are going to see a show of force, is it, as Victor says, a resurrection of an unfinished civil war, or is it an act of aggression? Well, that's obviously the the Chinese narrative is that it's it's the unfinished part of the civil war. I mean, the other way of looking at it, you know, extends from from what was saying, which is that in the last 130 years, uh, China has only ruled Taiwan for four of those for four years between 1945 and and 1949. And you have a very different sense of self, if you like, in Taiwan. You know, you ask people, you know, do they feel Chinese, you know, among the younger generation. It's it's it's a tiny tiny proportion who say they feel exclusively Chinese. Um but really what the outside world wants is the status quo. What they're worried about is a change of a situation by force whether that's an actual invasion or some kind of blockade by China. Um and if that you know if if there was any change to the status quo I think it would unleash a whole series of really dangerous dominoes. You know, I think Japan would try to develop nuclear weapons, and it probably has the skills to do so within months. That would probably trigger South Korea to develop nuclear weapons. We'd have all kinds of unforeseen consequences from China taking unilateral action over the status of Taiwan.
Ross, can you see uh the the unilateral movement from China to reunify with Taiwan creating that sort of a dangerous ripple effect? Is that something you sense being in Taipei?
Well, whether or not there's there's a regional arms race, I I think frankly we're already there. We see that with commitments by Japan and South Korea for significant increases in defense spending. And part of that's in response to to North Korea, part of it's in response, frankly, to China. The Philippines is also dramatically increasing its defense budgets after decades of underinvestment. And here in Taiwan, there's a new proposal for a nearly $40 billion US supplemental defense budget, which is an enormous amount of money. Uh so, uh I think the key question is not really what would happen uh if and when China should use force uh or or would that set off military spending increases? Because again, I think we're already there. Really the key question and I think my colleagues know this the key question is should China use force would other countries militarily intervene and that's what caused the controversy after Prime Minister Takachi's remarks uh about 3 weeks ago in the Japanese parliament and uh really uh you know in response to what Victor said about foreign leaders foreign countries being willing to shed blood the only thing we could really say about that question is it will be up to the leaders of those countries at the time that this contingency occurs. There's simply no way to predict whether or not the US president or the Japan prime minister or the Australian prime minister at the time that such an event occurs would they be willing to dispatch their military and engage in what would be a a hot war with China.
Victor, what do you make of that? I mean, jump in, please. Um, if you feel you want to respond to this idea of of can you imagine a nuclear armed Japan and South Korea in response to China's actions uh in Taiwan? That's a big risk for China to take, is it not?
Allow me to mention I'm shocked to hear some of the remarks from the other co-panelists. They talk about Japan as if Japan is in the same line with China. No, if you read the United Nations charter, there is a particular clause called enemy state and Japan is an enemy state as far as that clause is concerned. Meaning the United the uh Japanese government are prohibited from possessing comative weapons of aggression to constitute another threat to the victor nations including China. And if for example Japan wants to rearm and to constitute another threat to the victor nations including China, the United Nations Charter authorizes the Victor nations to take unilateral military actions against Japan without the need to consult and inform the United Nations Security Council beforehand. That means if you look at China and Japan, they are not equal. One is the country which unconditionally surrendered in 1945. The other country, China, is a victor nation together with other allied countries like the United States. So never talk to me about Japan developing nuclear weapons. If they do that, that will be the moment of their annihilation because they will constitute threat to China and China has all the power and the authorization to destroy that new menace from Japan. China will never allow Japan to become another militaristic or facadist country because of the prohibition of the United Nations charter. And that is part of the condition upon which Japan unconditionally surrendered. And no one should even think about Japan raising its head of fascism again to threaten China.
Bill, do you want to >> That's a really good reason for why the status quo should be preserved. I mean, if you don't want to unravel the postwar security order uh in East Asia, then preserve the current status of of Taiwan and carry on with business as usual. I I think that Victor has made the a very strong case there for preventing a whole series of unforeseen consequences from China attempting to change the status quo over Taiwan. Allow allow me to add a point. Allow me to add a point. I think to preserve the legacy of a second world war is to make sure China is a united country and no one should indulge in the fantasy that China should ever be separated across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Meaning to achieve national unity for China is a precondition of preserving the victory legacy of the Second World War. If you argue with me otherwise, you either don't read history or you are misguided by your misperception of the realities of the world. If any one country wants to fight militarily against the China to prevent China's reunification, he or she will be doomed to failure. If you ever want to try that, then you are really playing peril for yourself. Could I ask a question or Victor? As far as the the United Nations enemy enemy state clause, you know, many many experts do consider that obsolete and even China voted for a resolution uh uh affirming that it was obsolete and that vote was in the 1990s. So whether or not it still applies is actually it's kind of an unresolved legal question at the moment. But but I I do think um that that the likelihood of Japan developing nuclear weapons in the near term is highly unlikely. However, the reality is is that Japan is significantly increasing its defense budget. They've been doing so uh ever since Abbe uh came back as prime minister in 2012 and that's continued under AB's successors uh since 2020. They've changed their prime minister multiple times. Uh but it's clear that the trajectory is for increased spending not just by Japan but again as I said by other countries in the region. So we are in an arms race here in in Asia.
Bill you wanted to ask a question of please allow me to mention something obsolete without being terminated still is not terminated. Therefore, allow me to emphasize for your benefit as well as the benefit of our audience that the United Nations Charter Enemy Clause remains on the book and it can be triggered if Japan wants to move in the wrong direction of rearmament and remilitarization to such an extent that it constitutes a threat to China. China will go to war with Japan if Japan wants to rearm itself as well as even possessing the nuclear weapon because that is the right authorized by the victor nations as reflected in the enemy clause in the United Nations chart. Don't be misguided about the so-called obsolete of that clause. That clause remains on the book. I've checked with the security council office just recently and they reaffirmed the validity the validity of that enemy clause. So don't play with fire.
If you advise Japan ask them to read very carefully.
Bill, you wanted to ask a question of Victor. Go ahead. But I also want to ask you Bill, does Victor have a point here?
Well, he does. I mean, we're all kind of getting a bit hypothetical here. I mean my question you know my comments about you know the next stage all followed from you know a forcible change of the status quo over Taiwan and in saying that if the status quo does change then I think you know it will trigger a whole load of other uh moves you know by by the regional powers by Japan by South Korea um and you know presumably you know wider than that um as well but I do think there's an interesting question here I mean you know given that it's you know so long since you know China, the mainland actually rules Taiwan. I I just wonder, you know, for asking Victor, you know, hypothetically, do you think that the Irish are a different group of people, a different nation to the British?
Victor, you are completely wrong. The better comparison is the uh United Nations versus the Confederation. There was only one country that is the United States of America. The Fed the Confederation wants to break away from the Union. And if you test the opinion at that time, probably up to 100% of the people in the confederation wanted to break away from the union. Why President Lincoln was ranked as one of the greatest president of the United States. He refused to accept that. He wants to use force to bring back the Confederation into the Union. Therefore, as you can see, President Lincoln and Federation won. The Confederation was defeated. They were brought back into the Union by force by defeating the Confederation. This is a better comp comparison for the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. China will never allow breakaway of Taiwan because if you read the Potan proclamation and the Tairo declaration, Taiwan in its entirety should be returned to China upon the unconditional surrender of Japan. and it was returned. Now there was a civil war afterwards but there was only one China. China being separated across the two sides of the Taiwan straight. That is the fact. But there is only one China. And if Taiwan wants to break away from China, China will need to bring them back into China by force as President Lincoln did visav the Confederation. That is not aggression. That is not using force against another country. That is civil war as the civil war in the United States. Thereafter, the United States has always been one country under God, indivisible. China should always be indivisible after the reification of Taiwan.
Yeah. But I think if we went back 120 years when Ireland was part of the United Kingdom and we can see that things change and if people decide that they are a nation and they deserve self-determination, well, why shouldn't they have self-determination? Allow me to emphasize what the British or the English or the Irish want to do, it's their business. What the Chinese want to do here along the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, it is our business. As I declared just now, there is only one China. If you go back to Ireland, ask your government whether they recognize two China or one China, one Taiwan, you will be informed that they recognize only one China. They recognize that chi Taiwan is part of China. And China has full authorization as a sovereign country to deal with a part of its territory which wants to break away. And the better principle you need to keep in your mind is what President Lincoln did with the Confederation. Whatever Lincoln did to the Confederation, China has the right to do the same for the so-called breakaway Taiwan province.
That brings me to something I want to bring you in here on Ross because uh Victor says, you know, what happens uh is up to China, but it's also up to what Taiwan wants as well. And we're seeing China carrying out bigger, bolder military drills closer to Taiwan. It's um enacting this kind of anaconda strategy of sort of strangling the island. Is that emboldening people in Taiwan to want to resist China or is it making them more submissive realizing they cannot outfight the might of China? Well, for many people it's probably somewhere in the middle. Uh, you know, consistent with what Victor has said, people here know that a a unilateral declaration of independence. If, for example, the government and the people had a consensus that they were going to change the name from Republic of China to the Republic of Taiwan and you know, this is what people typically call formal independence. I think people here know that the the the most likely outcome of that would be an immediate uh Chinese attack. Uh at the same time, the number of people here who are saying we want to reunify uh with China on China's terms, which is similar to what China uh offered uh or implemented in Hong Kong and Macau, one country, two systems. the number of people here who support that uh as a as a short-term occurrence is is very small. Uh which means most people here for now prefer the status quo. But the but there is an interesting aspect to this and it it does go to your question. They do have elections here and uh over the past uh nearly 30 years of of of democratic elections, the electorate has switched back and forth a few times. They've elected more independenceminded uh leaders and they've also elected leaders uh who who preferred a closer relationship with China and adamantly opposed Taiwan independence and and uh emphatically believe that Taiwan is part of one China. And the voters elected a a leader like that two times in in recent decades. In in 2008 and 2012, but in 2016 and 2020, the voters emphatically elected a more independence-minded leader. And in 2024, it was it was a really uh strange result because uh the independence-minded leader was elected with only 40% of the vote because the other 60% was split between two candidates who were more moderate when it came to dealing with China. So it actually shows that at least at the moment the the majority seems to be just wanting some moderation. and they don't want to go for independence because they're concerned about uh a Chinese immediate Chinese use of force, but they don't want to unify either. And it seems that now they want to get along with China. I think at the moment one could say that that the public is a little concerned with some of the moves that the government has made that may have inflamed tensions. Um, you know, there are many people who support the government wholeheartedly, but it does seem at the moment that there's a trend to say, well, maybe we need to get along better with China. When we talk about getting along with China, I guess that turns us to the United States. Uh, one of Taiwan's key um friendships, I should say, an unofficial uh friendship and a um interesting relationship with China recently. Taiwan is a key US partner though in the Indo-Pacific. The US obviously doesn't officially recognize its sovereignty, but it does oppose unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. I should note going to what you said there, Ross. Earlier this year, though, the White House reportedly discouraged Taiwan's leader from visiting the US over the summer so as not to anger China. This was all happening during the trade wars uh between Washington and Beijing. So, Bill, that begs the question for many people. Would President Trump compromise Taiwan's territorial integrity, Taiwan's status quo in order to maintain his relationship with China?
I think unfortunately the bad answer to that is only President Trump knows that. But and you know, it might be different today than it is tomorrow. Um but the I think you know in terms of US posture over the last you know half century or more they've always seen the status quo as integral to the American position in Asia and I think from a defense and security perspective you know maintaining Taiwan's uh you know self-ruule is absolutely critical to to US you know national security at a global sense that said of course you know President Trump has been consistent on two things throughout his career. one is he absolutely hates, you know, what he thinks of as unfair trade and he blames China for that. But the other one is he absolutely hates foreign wars. So whether he would actually be willing to to go to war is is is a moot point, I think. Um and whether he thinks he could do some kind of deal that would somehow avoid China getting into a war with China and you know getting some kind of good trade deal as he sees it from China. Um and that Taiwan ends up being the sort of you know the collateral damage to that deal. I I I I don't think we can confidently say yes or no, but I think it needs to be factored into any kind of consideration of this three-way relationship between China, the US, and the leadership in Taiwan.
Ross, how do you see that? Is Taiwan a bit of a porn here in in President Trump's uh game in relationship with China? Does Taiwan think that it's secure under President Trump? Whether or not Taiwan's a pawn is a topic of endless conversation uh among uh talking heads like me here in Taiwan uh among government officials uh politicians legislators arguing back and forth uh about this topic. Uh we we do know that uh the administration, the Trump administration does include a number of people who are very strong supporters of Taiwan, starting with Secretary of State, National Security Adviser uh Rubio. Uh so I I think it's a safe assumption that he he often counsels the president to uh show support for Taiwan, including things like uh letting uh William Lie transit the United States. Given the precedent uh that that that exists for these kinds of transit stops, you know, there there's literally decades of president precedent. It happens once a year typically. Um but ultimately the decision maker is President Trump. That being said, ten I mentioned earlier this uh uh proposed defense supplemental budget uh of nearly $40 billion US. I I do think that President Trump is inclined to approve uh large weapon sales to Taiwan. If Taiwan is willing to make the money available, uh then I think the administration will will sell a significant amount of new weapons or additional uh uh uh uh weapons uh for systems it has already sold, for example, more Patriot missile batteries. Uh you know, and that there's precedent because the US has already sold Patriots to Taiwan. Um and and I think uh President Trump would simply tell Xiinping that uh you know we've always sold weapons to Taiwan. You know that we've not given up uh our our sovereign right to sell weapons uh to Taiwan. And uh you know to put it more simply speaking as an American, you know, Americans always support a fair fight. So, if this is going to be a war, um even if America is not going to send its troops to to fight and die, I think America would continue to make weapons available to Taiwan.
What do you think about those weapons being available? Victor, does that pose an issue for China?
Allow me to make one perspective. We talk about US Taiwan relations as if you know they started from yesterday. No. uh when Dr. Harry Kiser made a secret visit to China in 1971. When President uh Nixon made a state visit to China in 1972, the United States had diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in Taiwan. And the United States and Taiwan or the Republic of China had a defense treaty and uh the United States stationed tens of thousands of military troops in Taiwan. In order to normalize relations with the People's Republic of China, the United States broke off all these points. They decided to withdraw all the US troops stationed in Taiwan back out of Taiwan. They broke off diplomatic recognition with Taiwan. They even rescended the US RC defense treaty which was a domestic law in the United States. They did all the impossibilities in order to do what? to normalize relations with the People's Republic of China. Now, yes, of course, the United States is still supplying weapons to Taiwan, but do you know where will be these weapons after the reunification? Most of these weapons, if not destroyed, will be on display in the military museum, either somewhere in Taiwan or in mainland China. Therefore, if you think that the weapons supplied to Taiwan by the United States will enable the separatists in Taiwan to defeat China, you are indulging in fantasy. The United States publicly acknowledges in terms of a conventional weapon. The Chinese conventional weapons are not inferior to the United States. They are actually in many cases already superior to the US weapons. In terms of other weapons, China's weapons are ahead of the United States. For example, President Trump is talking about uh F47, for example, the sixth generation of the phantom stealth planes. China is already producing two types of that from two manufacturers, one in Chandu, the other one in Shenyang. And if the United States does not have the supply of rare earth from China, their defense industry will grind down to a halt. So don't think if you think about the war between China and the United States, the United States will win the war. What if they don't? What if they lose the war? especially in the war close to the Chinese coastline and every inch of land in Taiwan is fully covered by the long range artillery pieces in Fujian, in Guangong and in Jang.
So you are talking about a completely one-sided war. If the war ever breaks out, let's all use our sanity to pro propose peace rather than agitating for war. The war will be quick. It will be very very uh swift and the result will not be surprising at all. And if you are betting on the wrong side of the equation, what if you are on the wrong side? What if you are on the losing side? That is the moment of truth. We all need to think about it. And China will never take any military action unless it is fully believed, fully convinced it is on the right side of history.
Mhm. Why what will make China to reach that conviction to achieve national unity is always the right thing for China to do and to pre to defend and preserve the victory legacy of the Second World War after defeating Japanese fascism is always the right thing to do. If you are a British or Australian, don't forget all the atrocities and the crimes against humanity, against your nationals and humanity as a whole committed by the Japanese fascism in the Second World War. Fore Ireland. forch. forch. Fore speech. for leadership.