Transcription
Hello everyone. A good little private briefing this Monday morning to debrief a bit on the movements of the weekend's movements and to take a bit of a global situation assessment. I like to take my time on Mondays because Wall Street is still closed. We won't have the opening until this afternoon. So it allows us to look at the market a bit in its entirety, look at our indicators a bit, try to make rational decisions and so on, and see what interesting things we have to say.
So, you'll see, there's a lot to say. I'll try to be shorter than last time, but for now, again, I'll give you a little summary at the beginning of the video to help you with the rest of the chart reading. I'm not changing my exposure; I'm still at 70% exposed. I think the probability of a rebound, even just a technical rebound, is very strong this week. I think we'll recover at least in the short term the $97,000, but I think we'll recover $100,000 by the middle of the week, I think. It looks like it's shaping up that way. And at that point, however, I'll be super vigilant to watch what I do. Will we lighten up at that point, go from 70% exposed to potentially 40% if we realize that it's not the right time and that the market isn't ready to move up more sustainably, or will we stay at the same exposure level? In any case, I think if we recover $100,000, it will potentially happen like that, and then we'll probably have a dip before moving up again. And in that case, if we really have all the signals that are open, then we might add another cartridge to potentially go from 70% exposed to 80 or 85. So that's the scenario. Now, let's try to understand a bit why I'm talking about this and what makes me think we'll probably have a rebound.
So, let's look at Bitcoin. We're at $95,500. Yesterday, we went down to $93,000 on Bitstamp. I'm on Bitstamp here. So, here, we've scared a lot of people. We're in very strong bearish territory. If we look at the Fear & Greed Index, we're at 14%. Yesterday, we were at 10%. Honestly, it's really exceptional to have such low levels. I tried to look precisely at when such low movements last occurred. I'll show you a bit, but you should know that we are less than 5% of the time in extreme fear levels. Okay? So, not only are we below, we're in extreme fear, meaning we're below 25 on the Fear & Greed Index, but we're actually at 10. Okay? And if we look at the last time this happened, here, let's switch to daily. The last time this happened was in February. Okay? So, during the crash here where we went from $96,000 to $82,000, okay, we had a big drop in 3 days, linked to Trump's customs tariffs. -15% in 3 days. It was much more violent than what we've experienced recently. We recovered to 10, then we had a huge rebound on the strategic reserve, strategic reserve rumors, all that, a descent, but apart from that phase, look at the range phase here where, if you were here, you know there was quite a bit of fear. We reached here during the crack with this big wick, we went down to, yes, 17, yes, 16 or 17, we didn't reach 10 during this entire range phase. If we zoom out a bit, you see that not here, not here, not here either. Even during the cycle bottom phase here, post-FTX bankruptcy. Okay? That was the candle on November 8th, on the FTX bankruptcy. You see we reached 20, yes, around 20, but we didn't go below. We have to go back before that to the Terra Luna collapse. Okay. The de-pegging of the USD, no, of TUSD, right? Of the Terra Luna stablecoin which, at the time, plunged the entire market into extreme panic, and you see we went down to, we actually went down to five, okay, on the Fear & Greed Index, and we stayed below 10 for a while. Okay? But you see that it's still very, very rare over the entire Bitcoin cycle. These are movements that happen very rarely. We were there during this phase. So, between the big bullish phase of March 2021 and the big bullish phase here of November 2021. Before that, it was here during the Covid crash. It happened a bit here during the summer, from summer to September 2019. And also here during the big fear phase. After that, for those who were here, we had a huge support level that held for a very long time. We thought it was our cycle bottom. And finally, we broke it. We broke it in style, as we had a -50% drop. We dropped by at least 50% on Bitcoin. So, you can imagine on altcoins, and at that time, we reached 10. In short, it's a rather unprecedented movement. And you see that the common point between all these phases is that there was always a rebound. Okay? Even when we were in this bear market phase with the Terra Luna collapse, okay? We reached 10, but then we rebounded. Okay? We still rebounded by over 40% on Bitcoin. We went from $17,000 to $25,000. Okay. So, there are always rebound phases after phases of bearish excess. Okay? Well, we necessarily have rebound phases. It's like, anyway, conversely, when we have phases of bullish excess, when the Fear & Greed Index goes through the roof, we always have correction phases, even in an uptrend. Here, we were at, well, 99 on the Fear & Greed Index, boom, we took a -30% hit. Okay? There are always correction phases when there's an excess of sentiment, whether it's positive or negative. So, here, we're getting to a point where, well, you see, the Fear & Greed Index has been gradually settling into fear since around, well, around here, around August. We were around 80, yes, around 80% on the Fear & Greed Index, and it was actually a slow but steady drop that led us to a Fear & Greed Index of 10 yesterday. So, a rebound is very probable. Again, I repeat, the liquidity we're leaving behind us is really, really symptomatic. If I show it to you right here, boom, every time we have a green line, it means we have orders from sellers, okay? So, people who are shorting the market who find themselves in profit, okay? They are not hunted. And here, you see that when we look at the market in the short term, over the last month of trading. Here, all the red lines have been stopped out, okay? Meaning a candle comes and cuts the red line. So, it means we're recovering that liquidity. All this liquidity that was created here. It was done during the October 10th crash. Here, all the liquidity that was created by buyers, we recovered it here. Same here. And even here over the weekend, boom, I'll put my thing back. Same here over the weekend, you see that we recovered all the liquidity we had created on a potential bottom, okay? Conversely, you see that there are liquidity zones that are quite obvious and that a market maker wouldn't have trouble recovering. I mean, look here, there's liquidity from short sellers here, this green line. Okay? And you see that here we have a bullish candle that stops just before, okay? and then goes back down. So, at one point here, all the people who are shorting the market and who are very, very opportunistic, because shorting the market here is quite risky. Imagine the market has already lost 25%, Bitcoin has lost almost 25% in a straight line. And there are still people betting on the downside, and you'll see in the liquidations, we'll see it just after, but they are increasingly numerous, and these people are never bothered. Okay? So, they were a bit bothered during this phase. Okay? So, here, it was obviously quite symptomatic. You see, we set a sort of bottom and we create liquidity. We absorb all this liquidity. So, all the green lines here are eaten up, and then we go down. But since October 27th, we've been going straight down, and we've recovered almost no liquidity. Well, you might say a little bit here, a tiny bit here, but not even here, just a tiny bit here. That's all during the phase of almost bottoming out between November 4th and 9th. Okay? Where we started to reposition ourselves. So, apart from here, we haven't gone after other liquidity.
So, I think we will recover at least below this resistance here at 107. Well, I think $100,000 is obviously a target, but a very short-term target. It could happen as early as today. We could go up from here. You see that here, we recovered the liquidity just there. I'll show you in very short term. This is Smart Money Concept analysis. But here, you see, we made a double bottom. Okay. Right here. Double bottom, and then we recover the liquidity below this bottom. Hop, hop. And we recover below. The objective is to recover the liquidity above the range. So, here, above $96,700. So, I think in the very short term, we'll be at 97. Okay. So, very likely today. And then we'll have to see what's going on. But you'll see there's enough material for a short squeeze. And I expect that for the coming hours and days. I'll show you that right away with the liquidity. Hop, we'll start again each time. We'll start from the shortest liquidity over the last 12 hours. Well, we have a range phase setting in, but you see that above the price, that's where we have the most liquidity. See, same here, we had the most liquidity. Hop, we fed on that. And here, the market seems ready to recover the liquidity above the price. So, that's what we just did. That's what we're doing right now. If we look at the last 24 hours, you see that the liquidity is much greater above the price than below the price. Here, we have a line indeed, right here at $92,900. But you see that the liquidity is mainly here. And indeed, you see that the price is finally the price action is touching these liquidity zones to feed on them. Okay? So, here, at the level of the last 48 hours, tell me in the comments, I'm leaving this video on YouTube, so the comment section is always there. If you have questions, don't hesitate. If you have remarks, things you want to see developed further, please don't hesitate. So, you see over the last 48 hours, we have a big liquidation wall, and it's here. Okay. At $96,700. So, I think in the very short term, we'll go recover this level. That's what we were talking about. You see that below the price, we have some liquidity, but it's much weaker than what we have here.
If we look at 3 days, at the level of the last three days of trading, the people who entered the market in these last three days. Well, we had buying here, but it was stopped at that point. Well, we still have some below, but you see if we look at the picture here on the right of the image, well, you have especially here a big liquidation wall that is here between 97 and 96,17630. Well, you'll see that there are walls when you do this kind of exercise, walls that appear and disappear. We had a very yellow line at $92,800 when we were at one day of trading. Okay? And you see that now, we no longer have a very, very yellow line. The very, very yellow line is rather here. This is because we are summing up all the liquidations, and each time, it's subsets. Okay? Here, we have 3 days of trading. So, we'll recover the data from the last day of trading with this famous yellow line, but in addition, we'll add the two days preceding that day. And so, in the end, over the last three days, when we sum up all the people who entered derivative contracts in position, well, the people who entered derivative contracts in position over the last three days, the majority have shorted the market, and they have shorted the market with a liquidation zone that is here. Okay? In fact, it's very simple. If you have a person who enters here, okay, at $94,200, and they are using 10x leverage, okay? So, here, CoinGlance can check if the trades that were entered, well, the person who entered here at $94,200, they entered with 10x leverage. So, that means that they will be liquidated if Bitcoin makes a price movement of 10%. Why? Because 10x leverage amplifies movements by 10 times. So, if there's a 10% increase in price, it means that Bitcoin, the leveraged position, will increase by 10 x 10, so by 100%. And so, it will liquidate the position. Okay? Because, of course, you have a 100% price variation for only a 10% price variation, hence the 10x leverage. And so, you will be liquidated at that point. Okay? So, here, if a person used 10x leverage at $94,200, well, we'll be able to check, well, a 10% variation. That makes, that makes what liquidation? Okay? Well, 10% of $94,000, so that's $9,400. So, a $9,400 variation, $9,400 + $94,000. Well, that's about $103,000. So, we'll have a line drawn at $103,000. Okay? We'll have a line drawn at $103,000. And here, we sum up all those with 25x, 50x, 100x, 10x, 2x leverage, all the people who entered with stop orders, okay? And CoinGlance aggregates all this data to create a heatmap for us. Hence the interest in this heatmap, because it's not that easy to construct, but it has a lot of value because at a glance, we can say, well, over the last three days, the majority of people who entered were sellers, and they entered as sellers with a liquidation wall that is mainly here at $97,000.
So, if we look at the last week, it's the same, the imbalance is glaring. We have a lot of liquidations above the price. So, if we decide to go and recover these zones, we could have a huge short squeeze, recover all of that, and probably stop. Well, here, perhaps here, you see, at the previous major support zones at $103,000, well, it's a very obvious zone, and then we'll see if we can go higher to actually reach $107,000. Okay?
If we look at the last two weeks, well, you see it's about the same. It's less glaring because we had big liquidation walls that change the scale a bit. Okay? If I reduce it here, you'll see it a bit more easily. Hop. So, here. Hop. So, here we had a lot of liquidation that we recovered. We have a bit below the price, yes, it's what we were seeing. And here, however, well, you see that here, right up to $100,000, we have quite a bit of liquidation. So, it's quite close to the price. So, in the short term, we could recover all of that. And then, well, the big, the big liquidation wall is mainly here. Okay, at $107,000, $108,000, $109,000. So, that will really be our major zone to recover if we go back into a real uptrend.
After all, even if we have a short squeeze, when we have a short squeeze, hop, if I show it to you right here, we'll zoom out to daily. But short squeezes, anyway, we systematically end up with the same thing, which is, hop, let's say we have a short squeeze with a big bullish candle that brings us here. Well, generally, hop, we'll work it like this. Hop, and then we move on. Okay? It can be more or less long during this phase, but generally, we go back down. Okay? It's very rare to maintain here and move on like that. It happens, you see that it actually happened right here when we were post-bottom of April, we had here two big short squeeze candles with the recovery of all the major short levels. And then, we made an accumulation zone here that was very important because it was the one, you see, that we targeted for a while. It was the one we saw with, right here on the cost basis distribution map. I'll show it to you right here. Hop, with indeed, well, it's here, you see, with indeed this big accumulation zone. So, potentially, we could have a short squeeze, an accumulation zone that forms more strongly, and then move up again. That's what happened here. But more traditionally, when we have a short squeeze, we are then reabsorbed, we set a bottom, and then we move up again.
Well, we'll see. In any case, the probability of a short squeeze is becoming more and more important. I'll continue graphically a bit on these indicators because I'll show you very interesting things.
First, regarding Bitcoin dominance, we've just broken the structure we were forming here on dominance. So, I remind you that this curve represents the proportion of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. So, Bitcoin's capitalization currently represents 59.43% of the capitalization of all cryptos. And you see that we've broken this rising wedge. Okay. So, here, it's an ascending triangle, and if you've studied graphical analysis or know a bit about it, it's quite basic. I think it's in chapter 2 of the course. Rising wedges are continuation patterns. So, here, traditionally, when we have a bearish phase with a triangle and a breakout, well, traditionally, we have a movement. We project the movement here. AB = CD, okay? And so, that should bring us to around 51%. Now, that doesn't mean we'll get it. Of course, we have to put it in perspective. These are movements, all that is chartist structure and so on, these are things that existed a lot in the 70s, in the 80s, actually, at the very beginning when we had access to real-time quotes. Because before, you must know it, but people who invested in the stock market on Wall Street in the 30s, they took the newspaper and looked at the morning quote and decided to buy or sell, and they waited for the next morning's newspaper to see what happened during the day in terms of quotes, not real-time quotes. And so, obviously, when we had access to these kinds of charts, a whole science of charts began to emerge. And so, that's precisely what led to patterns. So, ah, okay, when there's a channel and we break it upwards, it's a breakout, and generally, we go towards that. Conversely, well, there have been many theories created at that time, and so you have many percentages that you can still find on the internet. If we have an MTP, we have a 77% chance of going down. When a range is broken by an upward breakout, we have an 83% chance of reaching such a value. Well, all of that, the percentages and so on, no longer exist, of course, because, well, since everyone knows it, everyone bets on the upside, and so, in fact, the markets systematically do the same thing. When you have a range, well, hop, we break it. Everyone says, "Ah, here, I have an 80% chance, I have an 83% chance of reaching that zone." So, I buy, and in the end, the market reverses and recovers all the liquidity of everyone who knows that. Okay? Like always, the market proves the crowd wrong.
Now, when the crowd wasn't aware of this kind of indicator and chart analysis, well, you still had an edge in using it. Now, absolutely not. Okay? So, when I see all the people who tell me, "Ah, well, here we had such a breakout and so on, it's certain we're going down," I mean, it's like what you always see when we break such a support level, that's it, it's the bear market. All of that doesn't exist anymore. It existed back then, these are things that may have worked in the past, but they don't exist anymore. And that's why, when I look at the moving average, we'll look at the 50-period moving average. So, indeed, we have it on weekly. So, here I have the 50-week moving average line. Well, you see that generally in a bull run, we're not supposed to break this resistance. Although, you see that here, those who really played it by the book, here we broke a little bit below. Okay? It wasn't huge, but we broke a little bit below. Well, we didn't have a clear close. Okay. And when we had a clear close below this zone of the 50-week moving average, well, you see that we went into a bear market phase. And when we managed to regain it, well, you see that here, during all the correction phases, we never went below this line. Okay? So, I agree that this gives an indication. It indicates the strength of the movement. That is to say, the current movement is much weaker than it has been in the past. Well, you see that with any divergence indicator, okay? So, the momentum indicator, you see that the RSI, well, here, we have divergences with troughs, or rather with peaks that are ascending on the price and peaks that are descending on the RSI. That's called a divergence, okay? a potential divergence, and it's confirmed when we break the level here, this level, this trough level. Okay? So, here, hop, if I put it horizontally, I'll show it to you right here. So, here, we have a bearish structure that has formed with a trough, we rebound, here a trough, we rebound, and here we broke it. And so, here, we've created a real bearish divergence on the weekly RSI for Bitcoin. So, obviously, it's not a very good sign. I mean, we shouldn't fool ourselves. So, that's why, when I tell you that when there's a rebound, we'll have to re-evaluate the position. Here, we have our 50-week moving average at $103,000. If we recover this zone of $103,000, we'll have to ask ourselves if we're in a pullback. Is it going to go down, etc.? But what I mean is that this is not enough to invest simply because everyone is looking at this curve. So, it's game theory, everyone knows it's going down, and everyone thinks it's going to be a bear market if we break this level, if we break this level on a weekly close. So, here, people will short the market. If the majority shorts the market, the market will go up. Okay? And at that point, we'll have to see what's going on. But Bitcoin has accustomed us to very tricky movements, movements we've never had in this cycle. It's not an exception. It's probably even the trickiest cycle we've had. But for now, because as time goes on, cycles will become trickier because collective intelligence is increasing. People in the market now are much more educated, much more trained than they were in the past during the 2017 cycles, or even before 2014, etc. And so, as time goes on, more people whose profession is investing are investing, and so, inevitably, we end up with tricky behaviors. I remind you that we broke the ATH before the halving. That had never happened, it wasn't supposed to happen. Okay. So, people were a bit confused. Finally, we broke the halving. We broke the ATH before the halving, we had the halving, etc., and we never came back below the ATH during a bull run phase. Okay? So, let me explain, for example, we had the previous top in 2017, which was around $19,700. We broke that level, and then we never had a correction that came back to test that $19,700 level. Okay? And here, you see that we rebounded before at 28, etc. And when we went below, it was the bear market.
If I show you, hop, I'll show you a bit what's going on on longer-term charts. Okay, on BLX. Hop, you'll see it. Same here, we had a peak at $1100 in October 2013, in December 2013. Hop. Well, if we look a bit here, when we broke that level, right here, well, after all the corrections, we never went below. And then, well, when we went back to work not far from that zone, it was the bear market. Okay. Well, not very far, we were still double. But in fact, as time goes on, these indicators can no longer hold. Okay? Because we can't have such significant returns for so long without ever deviating from the rule. I mean, if everyone knows the mechanics of Bitcoin, then everyone will play the exact same thing. That is, the top x days after the halving, the bottom x days after the top. These are things that have worked in the past a few times. Well, that's not statistically enough occurrences to justify using only that. So, I look at this curve, but like any technical indicator, it must be looked at in conjunction with many other indicators. It gives us an indication. Indeed, it's not a good indication. It means that the momentum is weak. It means that, well, the further we go, the more if we have a recovery of the ATH or an upward recovery, it will be weak and not necessarily very sustainable. Okay? We know that. We've seen that the upward movements we've had in the past were much more powerful than what we have now. Okay? And as time goes on, it's decreasing, and potentially, we've entered a bear market. Okay. But I think with the excess pessimism and the excess bearishness we have now, the probability of a bear market truly starting in a straight line now, I think it's very low.
So, we'll continue with indicators that I'll show you. First, a few tweets. On X, we have CryptoQuant, stablecoin reserves. So, here, it's precisely the number of times when you have phases where a lot of stablecoins enter the exchanges. So, in the same way that when a lot of Bitcoin enters the exchanges to be sold, well, when stablecoins enter the exchanges, it's to buy. And so, generally, it's rather bullish. You see that it happened at the time, this big spike we had was a bit before January. So, it was the big hype phase during the period when Donald Trump was elected and before his inauguration. It happened here, okay, before the May 2024 phase. So, if we look a bit, it's May 2024, we were, hop, we were around here. Okay, we were around here. So, we had a lot of capital inflows at that time. Well, we'll look a bit at what's going on. But here, seeing a lot of stablecoins
Entering the coin, it's rather positive. Agreed? We'll continue with here, look, it's Kyongju, okay. So he's the founder of cryptoqu, well, there's no bear market entering into Bitcoin. And you see that here, as long as we have liquidity coming in, and so you see that here, the liquidity and the increase in the realized cap. Agreed? This means that people continue to buy. And so here, we have a buying pressure that is coming in, and we'll look a little bit into the details of where this buying pressure is coming from. But you see that here, well, there's always, there's always pressure. And conversely, when we started to have, you see here, a stagnation, well, that was the moment when we had our bear market, and there, despite the drop, we still have an increase in this realized cap. So that's a rather good sign. Okay, we'll look here. But here we really have a powerful capitulation on the altcoins. So this graph here, it shows us on Glassnode. So here you have lines with 500, so 500 lines that correspond to 500 altcoins, and you see the supply in loss versus the supply in gain. So here, when we are in the red, it means that we have almost 100% of the tokens held at a loss. And here, when we are in the green, we have almost 100% of the tokens held at a gain. Here, you see that, well, we are in the red, red, red. So this means here, we are in a phase where almost all the top 50 tokens are at a loss. All portfolios that have held crypto for the past few months, etc., are at a loss. And you see, so this allows us to trace this blue curve, this blue curve with the altcoin capitulation zone. And so currently, we are right in the middle of it, and we've been in it for a sustained period. Okay? You see that it's been quite a few days, and practically weeks, that we've been in it, and you see that, well, this is what we reached before forming our bottom here in April during the bear market. We didn't even reach it, we didn't even come back to it here during the August-September 2024 phase. Here, during the phase, precisely, after the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy, etc., we came to reach these zones before a powerful rebound, and during the bear market phases, we came to recover these zones. Agreed? That's precisely why we have so much strength in altcoins, it's because they've already lost so much that there's no one left, in fact, all the people who are psychologically in a state where they hesitate to buy, sell, buy, sell, they've already all sold. Agreed? Those who remain are either the strongest, the most unaware, or the most confident in their buying zones, and who, in any case, tell themselves, "Well, I'm not going to sell at current levels anyway, I'll wait later, and it can still drop by 20%, 30%, 50%, anyway, it doesn't matter, I'm not going to sell." And so in this case, it's generally where we set bottoms because in fact, there are no more people selling, and we only have a few buyers who can relaunch an upward trend, a trend that can be just a rebound. Agreed, I'm clarifying, but we reach moments where, necessarily, the balance between supply and demand, well, if you have no one left selling, then a few buyers are enough to recreate a semblance of an upward trend. Agreed? And here, we are reaching these moments where we are in very, very powerful capitulation phases, and even if we are on Bitcoin at $100,000, well, $95,000, okay, well, the behavior of altcoins is similar to what we had at $17,000. That is to say, here, people who are at a loss on altcoins are as much at a loss as those who were here on altcoins. Okay? So here, there is really, once again, a very, very significant bearish excess. And this, precisely, leads me to show you something, which is that the famous Bitcoin dominance that we saw here, which had broken its falling wedge. So this indicates something quite interesting. It indicates that here, in Bitcoin's movements, we have altcoins that are very, very solid, okay? We have a very strong drop in Bitcoin. And despite that, we have a break in Bitcoin dominance here. This is very rare. What you need to know is that in bullish phases, we have, let's say, 50/50. It's not exactly 50/50, but it will depend on the phases of the cycle. We have Bitcoin increases accompanied by increases in dominance. Agreed? This generally happens in bull markets, at the beginning of the cycle. Bitcoin rises very strongly while altcoins remain stable. So Bitcoin dominance soars, and sometimes we will have other phases in which Bitcoin rises strongly but Bitcoin dominance falls, as we could have, for example, here, you see between November 2024 and here, December 2024, it lasted a month, a month during which Bitcoin increased in value and capitalization, and during that time, we had a month during which altcoins increased so strongly that we had a Bitcoin dominance that fell because Bitcoin rose, but altcoins rose even more strongly. So I'm going back a bit to the basics, but I don't think that hurts anyone. And so here, on the other hand, phases of falling Bitcoin dominance generally, okay, or rather, phases of falling Bitcoin are generally phases of rising Bitcoin dominance. Simply because, just as when Bitcoin rises, altcoins can rise more strongly, when Bitcoin falls, altcoins often fall and fall even more strongly. It's very rare for them to stabilize or to manage to increase while Bitcoin is falling. Agreed? We have a very significant correlation between Bitcoin and all other cryptos. And so obviously, when we have falling Bitcoin phases, we generally have rising Bitcoin dominance phases. And that's precisely what we saw here since September. You saw that here we had a drop in Bitcoin's value, and you see a rise in Bitcoin dominance, which actually corresponds to a phase where, well, altcoins suffer more than Bitcoin. Okay? And so we have a rise in this Bitcoin dominance. And here, we just broke this rising wedge. And you'll see here, but on Total 3, here, I'll show you. Look at the Total curve. So Total is the curve that represents the global capitalization of the crypto market. 3200 trillion dollars. I use trillion, billion, etc. Well, it's not very rigorous, I agree. There are English terms, French terms, anyway, it's not very rigorous, but I'm sure you'll excuse me. At the level of Total 3, look at this, we haven't broken the low of November 4th. Okay, that's quite symptomatic. Here, you see that we had a higher low than the previous one on Total 3, whereas on Total, we had two descending lows. This means that Bitcoin carried the majority of the drop, the majority of the decline. Whereas on Total 3, which includes all altcoins except Bitcoin and Ethereum, well, you see that we held our bottom. And that's quite peculiar. If we look at Bitcoin dominance, well, that's precisely what I was telling you, it's falling. If we look at dominance, so that's the dominance, or rather, how much altcoins from the top 11 to the top 125 weigh in the total crypto market. So I'll explain. You take the sum of the capitalization of the top 11 to the top 125, okay, and you look at it in relation to the global capitalization of the top 1 to the top 13 million. Okay? And well, you look a bit at the dominance of that. And well, this dominance, you see that it has, it's in an increasing phase. You see here, we are in a phase where this curve is increasing. This means that small caps have a stronger performance than the rest of the market. Agreed? We were at 6.67%, we are at 7.37%. If I zoom out a bit, well, these are rather rare phases. Usually, this happens in bull run phases. You see that here between June and September 2025, this is precisely what happened. Here between June 2023 and December 2023. Here between November 2024 and December 2024, the famous drop in Bitcoin dominance. But we have it here with an increase in altcoin dominance. And so here, you see that we are holding the bottom that we created precisely here around June, and on altcoin dominance, well, there is some strength. Agreed? And so this is quite symptomatic, it's quite rare, and it's rather positive. Agreed? And so I really think that the scenario of a drop in Bitcoin dominance with a subsequent rise in altcoins, I think it's far from irrational, and so for me, it's something that I see happening in the coming weeks. Regarding the news of the week, the macroeconomic news, this Monday, we will have the Fed figures on manufacturing production. Which will be transmitted on Wednesday. That will be very important. Nvidia's figures, quarterly figures, they should continue to be good because investments remain quite strong in the sector. So it should be good, but it must not falter because Nvidia carries the market. So, so there you go, we want Nvidia to remain strong. On Thursday, we will have quite a few data points. You know that since the end of the shutdown, we are getting economic data again, etc. So it's rather interesting to see what will happen regarding, well, jobs, the employment figures, sorry, I'm not very awake this morning, the employment figures for September and existing home sales for September as well. So we'll look at that. We'll also look on Friday at the PMI figures. So the PMI is really the figure that best reflects growth. Agreed. And so consumer sentiment, inflation, etc., all the CPI and so on, anyway, we'll have a lot of data. We'll have a lot of data this week that will help us. So here you have the figures that are being published here on investing.com, you have the economic calendar. I systematically filter in the filters for 3-star importance, because otherwise you have a lot of useless data. Here, you will have the PMIs, you will have the non-farm payrolls. So all of this will give the Fed some visibility to know at that point what they will do. Will they lower rates or not? We had almost 90% probability of a rate cut at the December 10th meeting, which will take place in about 3 weeks. Now we're down to 43% probability. This means that the strongest probability is that there will be no rate cut in December. So obviously, we'll have to watch that. And especially, if we have good news on the employment figures side, if the employment figures are a bit degraded, inflation remains stable, and growth remains pretty good but a bit degraded, well, we'll certainly have a rate cut, and in that case, the balance of power will change. Agreed? If we go from 43% to 85%, the stock market will appreciate that, and so will the crypto market. So, so it's worth watching, but for now, it's rather interesting. Regarding ETFs. Well, there are some things that aren't very good. Again, here, we had something interesting with renewed buying from BlackRock, but you see that here, well, it's still fragile. We would have liked to see a bit more strength, especially on Friday. Well, given the trend, obviously, it's what we were talking about. We made a big point last time, but I'm saying, by the way, on the subject. Obviously, in strongly bearish trend phases, I don't expect bullish phases on ETFs, but to see bullish figures, especially on Friday, where we see that it was mainly BlackRock that sold. Well, that pleases me only halfway. That's why I'll be watching, and on the technical rebound, if I see that there's not much more strength than that, then perhaps we'll have to protect ourselves and get out of the market a bit. Agreed. So, despite everything, on the watchlist for altcoins, you see that we're in a bit of a rebound. We have quite a few altcoins performing rather well. If we look, whether it's TRX, Hyper Liquid, Solana. Well, Solana, we saw that it had faltered a bit. BNB, Tao is doing rather well. Morpo is still very good. Well, it's really indecent to see it stagnate around $2 so strongly. Well, we'll have to be careful, because we're creating a major support level. That is to say, I told you, by hitting it repeatedly, at some point we risk going down. So either it's a very, very powerful accumulation. That is to say, here we have someone with unlimited money who buys back every time it's below $2, they buy back. Agreed. And so, necessarily, every time there's selling pressure, they gorge themselves, and so, necessarily, it creates a support level. This seems to be what's happening. Except that unlimited money doesn't exist. So if they have $1 billion, well, at some point, we reach the end of that $1 billion, and so the selling pressure risks causing a downward movement. If it's $2 billion, if it's $10 billion, anyway, at some point it stops. So the buying pressure needs to return before they run out of money. And if, consequently, if that's the case, well, then it will be great. It means that the person who gorged themselves on Morpo here, well, it's rather a good sign for the future. Agreed? We'll try to look on Glassnode for Morpo if there's anything interesting. Here. Regarding Morpo. So we'll look at cost basis. No, at cost basis distribution. So there were large buying zones at $1.4. Well, we saw that. However, here, if we look at the last month, here, there has been, yes, there seems to be quite a bit of buying. You see here, red blocks appearing. So here, I think there's a bit of buying. If we look at the supply held by the top 1%, currently it's only increasing. We went from 94% to 95%. So, well, there's always, there's always upward pressure. Okay, okay, okay. We'll look at the SOP. Yes. No, there's no real profit-taking here. So, well. No, there you go, it's still strong. It doesn't indicate that there's really excessive buying back on Morpo. Well, here, it's activating a bit. So here, there seems to be quite a bit of buying, but but well, we don't have much more information than that. We'll look. So, there you go, so ETFs, we talked about them. Well, we'll certainly have to monitor that. There's quite a bit of selling pressure here. We'd like to see some buying pressure again before moving higher. The cycle top indicator. Well, you know that, I always look at it because, well, it gave good signals, whereas here nothing was predetermined for it to give the top signal for the 2021 cycle. So I'm looking at it. For now, it's not well underway, but we'll see what happens. Regarding the whale accumulation heatmap. You see that we had this large accumulation phase right here from the whales. We are still in it. Well, it reminds us, obviously, here. It reminds us, obviously, here. That is to say, a large accumulation phase followed by a downward leg on which we have a lightening of the accumulation. But in fact, well, the accumulation happened before. Here's what we had with a downward movement as well. Here, we had an accumulation with a downward movement that followed. Well, are we precisely in the last downward movement? I don't know. Well, in any case, finding the levels here that were the buying levels from these whales, it doesn't seem unreasonable at all. And so, going for between $100,000 and $106,000, it seems reasonable. Here, at the whale SOP level, whale profit-taking, we've very strongly deflated this indicator. Well, you see that we're still rather well oriented. There's no alert at the whale level. In any case, there's no alert, and more importantly, there are rather good signals. Agreed? Accumulation, no profit-taking. If we look here, but you'll see, later I'll show you on other Glassnode charts, but you see that here it's reinforcing this convergence, we had a slight stagnation here. Okay. Well, we had this downward leg that continued. If we look a bit, here, I'll display it. Which one is it? It's here. So the mega whales who own more than 10,000 Bitcoin, you see that there's a nice, nice buying pressure here. Agreed. Well, that's quite a pressure. Last time I told you, it happened here, here, also during the market bottom phases. Well, so we'll look. It also happened here. You see that just here, after a big, big drop, we started to have buying at that time. So, so obviously, we need to look at that because it could be, if we are in a bear market phase, it could be the case. In any case, what I was telling you is that even in phases of bearish excess, etc., even in bear markets, we have rebounds. And so, it's especially at the time of rebounds that we need to ask ourselves whether to lighten up or not. The majority of people ask themselves the question once the drop has occurred, okay? Once we are in the full capitulation zone. No, that's not when you should ask the question. You should ask the question when there's a rebound. Because when there's a rebound, people say, "Ah, that's it, we're saved." No, it's not there. That's precisely where the danger zone is. It's when there's a rebound. Because when we are in a downward trend and there's a rebound, we need to know if we are rather, I'll put Bitcoin back, but we need to know here if we are rather here, okay, or if we are rather, I don't know, here for example. Okay? Because indeed, when we have a rebound from here to there, we can say this is either a liquidity grab before a return to bearishness, or it's a local top and then we'll go higher. Agreed? And that's very important. So we'll obviously need to see if we are in a phase of bullish recovery or bearish trend. So here, I'm not too worried, ultimately. We can go even lower, etc. We can go to $92,000, whatever. It's possible. It's possible, but we'll have a rebound phase, and that's when it will be the danger zone. Agreed? When we have another rebound, will it be a moment of exit liquidity where we'll see a lot of people leaving, or not? And so in that case, we'll obviously have to adjust the portfolio, either by selling, or by reducing our exposure, largely, in small part. Anyway, we'll have to monitor that. We'll continue with the rest. But here, what I wanted to show you, well, yes, I'll just continue with the whales. But you see here, we had the whales, consequently, of more than 10,000 Bitcoin. We have here the whales of more than 1,000 Bitcoin who are buying again. When we had this in this cycle, I'll show you a bit, but in this cycle, you see right here, it happened here, just during our phase, our bullish phase, it happened here on our bottom phase. It happened here precisely at the beginning of our bottom phase until we started to rise again. Anyway, in any case, seeing the selling pressure fade and turn into buying pressure is a very good sign. It's a very good sign, especially to have consistency between portfolios of more than 10,000 Bitcoin and those weighing more than 1,000 Bitcoin. And to also see that the Sharks, who weigh 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin, and as you know, they are always poorly positioned, they sold the bottom here, and now they are selling strongly. Agreed? They sold the bottom here, they sold the bottom here, they sold the bottom right here. Agreed? And also, here, they sold the rebound. Well, you see that in fact, they are always poorly positioned, meaning, at the beginning of the cycle, as soon as there's a rebound, they sell because they think, "Well, it's a rebound in a downward trend, I missed it." It was the beginning of the bull run. Here, there's a low. We sell, it's the end of the bull run, it's the bear market. Well, we have a rebound, and you see that they are selling more than they sold here, here, and here. So here they are selling as much, and it's being bought by portfolios weighing more than 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin, well, globally, it's a very good sign for us. It means we are rather well oriented. Regarding the long and short term cost basis. So here you have the cost basis of the different portfolios. You have this orange line which is the realized cost, so the average purchase price of all Bitcoins currently in circulation. You have here the price which is, sorry, which is that of short-term holders, okay? And you have here that of long-term holders. So I'll zoom in a bit. But you see that, well, traditionally, it's rather a bottom indicator because here you see that it shows us the moment when these curves invert, okay? And so the moment when the Bitcoin price is below the price realized by long-term holders. And so these are generally very good buying zones for the cycle. Well, this means that if we want to buy back the cycle bottom currently, it's at $37,000. Well, you see that we still have room if we are truly in a bear market. In any case, here, when we are in a bull run phase, and you see that this cycle has accustomed us to novelties, which is that before this, we never went below the price realized by short-term holders during bull run phases. You see, I'll show you a bit here on the 2017 cycle. You see that here, this red curve, okay, which I'm showing you right here, it served as support throughout the cycle. Agreed? So, investors who lived through this bull run, like me, thought that for the next bull run, it would be easy, just look at this, buy back when we return to these support levels, and make money. We had this bull run level, we never reached this zone. So those who wanted to buy back in this zone during a correction phase could never do so because there was such monetary inflation that we went vertical. So people who based themselves on this indicator, thinking, "That's it, I have the key, I'm sure I'll perform in this bull run because I know when to reload, etc." well, they failed. And on this cycle, well, the newcomers who said, "If we break this level, it means we're in a bear market." Look, here, the 2017 cycle, when we broke the short-term holder support level, okay? The price realized by short-term holders, well, you see that when we broke it, we were in a bear market. And well, here, those who sold at that time, thinking it was a bear market, they sold here, we had a consolidation, we went strongly upwards again. They sold here, we had a consolidation, we went strongly upwards again. Same here. And currently, well, we are in exactly the same situation as here, here, and here. So, will we need to look a bit lower? We'll see. But for now, it's still, we are still in zones of excess, etc. So I don't think, I don't think we're heading for a straight-line drop. In any case, this scenario seems very unlikely. Agreed. That's why we still have 30% liquidity, because this scenario seems very unlikely. That doesn't mean it seems impossible, okay? But it is therefore very unlikely. We'll look a bit at the dashboards that I have, and which are very interesting, which are, consequently, very interesting. And you'll see here, regarding the, well, here, at the level of orders on spot, okay, order size on spot, and you see that here, whale orders continue to buy. You can check in the videos we made a long time ago. Well, I have nothing to prove to you, but since you already trust me, so to speak. But we talked about the fact that we needed to be very vigilant when targeting this zone between $92,000 and $96,000, regarding what the whales would do at that time. Would they buy back? Would they sell? Here, we are in a zone that had been a major zone. Agreed. Here, here, we had a lot, a lot of buying. And at that time, this is what drove our rise in the months that followed, between April, well, basically May and September, October. Agreed? Here, we needed to look at that time, when we return to these zones, is there a probability of continuing the downward pressure, or is there rather a probability of continuing an upward pressure, and therefore with whales who had bought here and are buying strongly? Well, that's what seems to be happening. Agreed? At that time, when we return to their buying levels, they buy back, and that's a very, very good sign. Agreed? If here we had had a large selling zone, whereas here it's a major support level for whales, it's very likely that they have taken enough profit, that they have sold on the rise, and therefore that they are protecting themselves and embarking on a longer-term downward movement. Here, that doesn't seem to be the case. We have large orders from whales, and consequently, it seems to be buy orders, given everything we see on the portfolios of more than 1,000 Bitcoin, more than 10,000 Bitcoin, etc., which we also saw here. In short, it seems to be a good buying zone, so rather a good sign. I'll also show you here, regarding stablecoin supply, so the quantity of stablecoins in circulation, etc. So here, we have an RSI, that is to say, a momentum indicator on stablecoin printing and on stablecoin supply. You see that here, it's an oscillator that allows us to see when we are in excesses, in signals, in signals, sorry, of overbought or oversold on this stablecoin supply RSI. And you see that here, well, it indicates to us, so here the small green triangles indicate when it's rather bottom levels. Now, it's not infallible, like all indicators. You see that here it indicated bottom levels. In fact, we had significant selling pressure. Well, we had 1000 other indicators at that time that allowed us to say, "Be careful," starting with this one, okay? Which told us here, we have a large distribution zone, which is not the case at the moment, okay? But you see that right here, here, we'll take this indicator again. You see that here, it indicates rather bottom levels according to this RSI on this supply. Okay. Here, at the level of supply held by retail and large investors, well, you see that we have somewhat contradictory signals, so we'll have to look. But here, retail is repositioning a tiny bit. Large investors, so we are rather at a low, okay? So, and generally these lows, well, you see these are bottom phases here, here, here, here. So we'll see a bit what's going on. Well, I wanted to show you this graph, which is very interesting. So here you have addresses that hold more than 10 Bitcoin, okay? So more than a million dollars, and who receive Bitcoin but do not make withdrawals. Okay? So this excludes exchanges and miners. And so you see that this curve, frankly, it's hyper interesting. It's the curve of those who hold for the long term. This is really a movement that appeared since this bull run. You see that in the past, it didn't really happen, there were a few deviations here at that time. It was notably purchases by Tesla, by companies that put Bitcoin in their treasury, etc. But you see that here it's something very symptomatic. We have many addresses that now hold more than a million dollars in Bitcoin and are there to keep it. This is, well, consequently, a new paradigm, especially since the ETFs, because from the ETFs onwards, we now have portfolios where, since BlackRock is investing in Bitcoin, they say, "Well, this is a good time to invest in Bitcoin." And apparently, all fund managers say that one should own between 1 and 5%.
Bitcoin is in his portfolio. We have all the traditional exchange channels, right, I don't know if you uh if you follow them, but whether it's Synaps or even Xavier Delmas who talks about it and so on, who are not at all pro Bitcoin by default and pro crypto, but who say, well, there you go, for fun and so on, for exposure, you never know, well, there you go, owning between 1 and 5% of Bitcoin, why not and so on. Anyway, there's still a big change. That is to say, these people, not so long ago, said that you shouldn't buy it. Okay. Uh so obviously, as a result, we have a bit more of a long-term buying pressure and you see that currently in this bearish phase, we have an enormous increase in the share of uh, as a result, of the number of addresses that own more than uh, of uh, of 10 Bitcoin and who continue to buy. Okay? So there's buying pressure. There are a lot of addresses that are buying at this moment to, as a result, support the price. And you know, we're always looking at supply versus demand. So that interests me a lot. Here too, I'm looking at this curve, which is, as a result, the supply at a loss. Okay. So here the supply at a loss, uh, if it wants to display it for me, but it doesn't want to display it. Here I have, uh, as a result, the number of Bitcoins that are currently at a loss. Generally, bottoms are formed when a large part of the supply is at a loss. Okay. Here, we are at levels that are quite significant. We have about 35% of held Bitcoin that is held at a loss. Okay? Since the beginning of the bull run, this is the largest proportion we have ever reached. So, we had reached a little more at that time in September 2023. Okay? So, well, it was still the beginning of the bull run, so I'm mentioning it anyway. But you see that we are at similar levels currently, okay? We are at the level of 35, between 35 and 40%. So, so these are often reversal levels, pivot points. So we'll have to look at that. But this is still a very good sign. Uh, I'll just look here. Hop. Uh, so, did I want to show you things just here? I've already shown you that. Uh, there. Well, here, the, what whales own. Uh, so, you see that it continues to increase, right? Here, we had this blue curve here that has gone back into the positive. So here, uh, whales are currently restocking. Well, it's just another, another display to say the same thing, right? But there, that's what I wanted to show you. It's the Bitcoin Traders MRIC. Here, it's the number of positions held by traders. So here, it's really about the, the part really of the, of the traders who are at a loss and at a significant loss. Okay? Here, you see that we have, so this, this famous, this famous, this famous blue histogram that shows us that we have losses of almost 20 billion. So we have about 20 billion in unrealized losses from traders. And so these are generally bottom levels, or rather, very strong bottom levels, because here we have very, very, very big losses. Okay. Here, just here, we needed to, well, liquidate all the gains, okay? But we had returned to a fairly neutral state, but now we have clearly gone into the negative, but very, very deeply negative. Okay? Same here, if we look, if we look at this curve, you see that here, we are currently at levels. So here we have the price realized by short-term holders and the MVRV of short-term holders. And you see that we are at inflection points that usually signal our local bottoms. Okay? So again, we are in oversold signals and still in the same logic. Now, we have the scenario of an even deeper descent, okay? To go even lower, that's totally possible. Uh, but you see that the indicators we have and that we systematically look at indicate rather that we are in a phase of potential rebound precisely because we have gone into very, very significant oversold zones. Same here, you saw it with the open interest. So here we have the changes, the variations in open interest. Well, the variations in open interest here, we have a big drop, uh, in fact, which corresponds to a large liquidation zone. We are really at the bottom. So, that is to say, here we are in, in deleveraging zones, that is to say, people are reducing their leverage, and these are generally bottom zones. When we are rather in phases where people are in excess and take excessive leverage, well, these are generally excess zones that, uh, that are in fact the, the top phases. Okay? We'll continue a bit. So there, well, that was pretty much it for these dashboards. Liquidations, we talked about them. Well, you see, we are still in very strong fear. Here, I've put 6 months of trading and you see that here, we are still in, in blue, in green, and so on. So, there is fear. You have to be very aware of that. There is really a lot of fear. But on derivatives contracts, and this is really a very, very special particularity of this moment, is that you see here positive fundings. Okay? Here, we find ourselves with no zone, even though we've had capitulations since October 10th, but you see that here we have a trend of bullish recovery from fundings. And this is really super confusing because it means that despite the drops, despite the support breaks, despite the capitulations, the extreme fear we have on the markets, we have fundings here that continue to increase and an open interest that continues to increase. Now, I think that in the lot, we have excessively many sellers. Okay? We have all the sellers who are very happy to have shorted since October 10th and so on, and who reinforced here, and who reinforced even more here, who are very happy and who are taking advantage of the drop to restock. Every time there's a small rebound, you see, there are small rebounds, we're at $96,000, well, they take advantage of it to strongly restock their shorts. So we can't really blame them because they are in their negative bias and so on. They say, "Well, of course, I'm the king of oil, I only make money by shorting the market, I'm making quite a bit of money and so on." Well, you see that there will come a time when the market will turn around, and when we have a short squeeze, probably on the break of $97,000, it will normally pick up a bit more and we should go up a bit higher and a bit faster. So here, I'm still relatively confident about the short squeeze, but it bothers me to see this significant increase in fundings. So I'm very eager to see precisely if we have this short squeeze, to observe the behavior of fundings here and the behavior of open interest here. If we have a break of these levels here with a recovery of the main support levels, then potentially, well, we'll say that we have a nice short squeeze that takes us to 105,000. We'll see if we have, well, this. If here, in fact, the excess we have in open interest is mainly an excess of sellers or an excess of buyers. Normally, according to the fundings that remain neutral, well, we have about as many buyers as sellers. And since it continues to increase, right, so from here, to here, you see that the trend, if we smooth out this curve a bit, it's rather bullish. This means that I have more buyers than sellers who have entered positions. So which surprises me because you see that we have liquidated a lot of buyers. Here, I haven't put the liquidations, but you regularly have the indications of liquidations on CoinGlaze and so on. Liquidations, it's quite something. Here we have a lot of liquidations and especially a lot of long liquidations. You see here, so these are the, these are the green lines. You see that here on this day, we have 200 million in liquidations, 120 million in liquidations. Here we had a lot of liquidations, and you see that for shorters, well, we have almost no liquidations. We had some here, okay? Because just here, hop, sorry. Uh, click. So yes, I shifted just here, we had just here, well, a recovery of these, of these liquidity zones. So we had significant liquidations here, but you see that it's very low compared to buyer liquidations, and it's especially much rarer. Okay? We sometimes have a spike or two, but it's still very rare compared to what we can have just here. And so, it's very likely that when we have a bullish recovery, well, we will have precisely many more bearish liquidations that will arrive, and so we'll have to see at that time if there's a drop in open interest. So, well, that's what I'll be watching from my side. On Ethereum, it's a bit different in the sense that it's a bit more negative. On this rebound, you see that here we have a rebound, well, we have a drop in fundings with an increase in open interest. So here it's clearer. This means that people who are entering here think it's a dead cat bounce, okay? A cat bounce, that is to say, a drop, we have a rebound before the bearish continuation. Okay? That's what the majority of people think. So it's likely that we will continue to have a bullish recovery. Okay? Because the crowd is always wrong. If we look a bit here at the weekly RSI for all cryptos, you see that we are still in the negative, right, strongly in the negative. We are at 37 on the weekly RSI. Okay. So frankly, it's rare, right? Again, for those who have experienced several bear markets and so on, you know that these are traditionally bear market levels to have this kind of thing. Weekly RSI. If I show it to you just here, RSI, the relative strength index. So here, we are currently at 41%. You see that generally, these are cycle bottoms when we reach oversold on the RSI, right? When we are below 30, these are generally cycle bottoms. Okay? Here, we had it during the Covid crash, we had it here in November 2018, and here as well. So here, we are reaching very, very significant bearish excess levels. And if we look at some, at some altcoins, okay. So we'll look, I don't know, BNB, well, it's very strong. Okay, we're more in the middle, but let's look at AVAX for example, we're at 37. Well, there you go, it's quite representative of all cryptos. We are at levels, okay, long-term major support levels. Okay, so there is still, there is still a certain, a certain excess, and so, well, generally, excesses need to be corrected. So it's very probable that we will correct them in the coming days. Okay. Uh, so here, we talked about morpho. If we look here at the cost basis, we'll zoom in a bit on the last month. But, but there. So here, yes, we had a small recovery here from buyers. Well, it's tending to weaken. It's not very, very strong here on this indicator, but I had already, I had already talked to you about it. Well, here, you see that we have a small line that is being drawn. For now, it's still a bit, a bit weak, but anyway, I had talked to you about it here, when we are in phases of bearish excess and especially phases of excess that are then swallowed up, we don't have a line here on the cost basis, okay? Sorry, because in fact, these are people, the people who are buying here, these are people who have already bought before. Okay? So in fact, it averages their purchase orders. That is to say, here on this indicator, sorry, we will average by address. That is to say, if you are an address, you bought here at 87,000 and here at 76,000, you will have an average purchase price of about 82,000 here, and so a yellow line will be displayed at these levels. Okay? When we have red lines here, it means that we have whales that are strongly buying back at a given point, and that it averages their purchase price in this zone. Okay? So these are generally major support levels, right? So that's why here we have major resistance levels and here major support levels. But in phases of really hypervolatility, well, these are generally not the times when we will see lines drawn below. Okay? Here it was the case because volatility was very low. Here it was the case because volatility was very low. Here it was the case because precisely we had a lot of selling and volatility was a bit lower. Okay? But you see that it was less dense than it could have been in the past. So here, it doesn't surprise me that we don't have much reaction at this point. Uh, and it's rather if we have one here, it will really be a sign of very, very strong strength. Okay. But for now, for now, there is no reason to worry. Uh, here at the level of long-term net position change, we still have selling. So we talked about that, right? Uh, the thing is that it doesn't filter by, uh, whale, not whale, and so on, it's everyone. Okay? If you own 0.01 Bitcoin and you bought it a year ago, if you want to sell it now, well, you will be counted here in the selling pressure. So obviously, this kind of indicator has value, especially related to the fact that it creates selling pressure. So whatever the selling pressure, as long as there is selling pressure, well, it's not really a good sign. But you see that here, well, we'll have to see a bit what's going on. I would have preferred, of course, to have a green curve. These are still things that, as a result, somewhat counterbalance my bullish bias at the moment and that call for caution and that's why I'm not currently restocking more than 70%. Okay? Here at the level of exchange net position change, there's also a bit of nuance. Uh, I've given you a lot of positive things. Here, there are still Bitcoins arriving on exchanges. Well, you have stablecoins arriving and Bitcoins arriving. So that means there's buying pressure and selling pressure. When Bitcoins arrive on exchanges, it's to be sold, to be managed, to create selling pressure. And so, necessarily, here, we reach moments where, well, there is selling pressure that is being put in place. It's normal in phases of bearish excess, right? It's even the principle of a bearish excess, which is that, as a result, there is a bearish excess, and so, necessarily, many people arriving in a bearish way on exchanges to capitulate, to sell despite their losses, despite the drop and so on, they sell because, in fact, their psychological state no longer allows them to see the glass as half full. So, as a result, they will sell. And indeed, I would like to see a reversal phase here. Well, we don't have to go into the green. We can just have a reversal phase, but here, I would like this curve to go back down as it did here, to indicate at that moment that Bitcoins are leaving exchanges, so to be held, okay, to be stored and kept aside. Same here, we had a small rebound in the put and call ratio. So here, people have bought puts. This means they want to protect themselves from a potential drop. So, there you go, again, it can mean a lot of things. This week, we have a lot of macroeconomic information coming. So it could mean that if we have a lot of bad economic news, well, the price could go lower. And if the price goes lower, people who buy puts here are protecting themselves from a potential drop. Okay? I don't do that. I don't buy puts and calls. Uh, first of all, it's forbidden in France for non-professional investors. But anyway, I believe that one can manage their portfolio just by calibrating their exposure between 0 and 100%. So, here currently, we are still a bit de-risked, okay? It's a bit like we've bought puts, precisely because we have 30% of our portfolio in stablecoins. This means that if the market drops, we are able to, well, restock lower and thus reduce the volatility of our portfolio by owning less crypto than the money in our wallets. So, there, we've talked about the, all the other indicators. So we'll stop there. Some rather positive news. You saw on the markets, on Wall Street markets, I'll finish with this, but you saw that here we've recovered the bearish gaps, okay? Here I'm showing them to you. We had a big gap that we've recovered. We've gone back to the support level that we were at. This reminds me a bit of what we could have had. Hop, I'll show you. Uh, where was it? Uh, you see one by, well, wait a moment, Hop. Yes, that's it. Uh, here, we had precisely a phase of uncertainty during the summer. We had come back, gone up, come back below, and recovered some of the order block levels. Support level, support level. Well, here's what we had. Order block, support level, support level. We're coming back to that. Uh, honestly, it's a pretty good sign to see a bit of strength here, uh, in the recovery of this support level. We'll have to see how the American session opens, and especially, well, depending on this week and the macroeconomic data we might have, the employment figures, the creation figures, uh, sorry, the creations of, well, wait, I have it right here, I'm a bit tired after 1 hour and 18 minutes of video. Hop, there it is, existing home sales, that's what I wanted to say. Existing home sales, job creation, we also have the PMIs coming out. In short, with all that, we should be able to get a lot of information and thus know if we will potentially have a bullish recovery on the American markets. In any case, we are at good support levels, so we'll have to look at the Russell 2000, we are still below our resistance for now, no more data on the American small cap side. There. Well, we've had a good overview. Uh, we'll stop there. So there's a good probability of a short squeeze this week. In any case, we'll stay in touch on the Telegram channel. If you have questions, I'll repeat the message, but you can ask them either privately on Telegram, you can write to me, or if you want, directly in the comments of this video on YouTube. There. Thank you, and have a good week.