Transcription
Are we at a bottom for Bitcoin? We will try to answer this question today. We will also quickly review the American indices to show the correlation and divergence we currently have with BTC. And I will also do a brief analysis of Ethereum. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is available and last week's results are out. I'll show them to you quickly. So, at the LIM strategies level, CTP for the LIM algorithms last week. The SPT algorithms had another excellent week, +15.41 R. For those who wonder what 1 R means, it's simply when you risk, for example, $5 on a trade and you win $10, you have won 2 R. This means that on the initial risk taken, these algorithms managed to seek more than 15 times the risk, quite simply. So, to access them, these algorithms are free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All links concerning my content are also there. It will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link, and currently, Bitgate is offering you a 10% bonus on your deposit. This means that quite simply, if you make a deposit of $500, you get a $50 deposit bonus. You just need to make a small trade to validate your bonus. So, to access the algos, click here on "join". Same for obtaining the bonus. Create your account, and then once that's done, you just need to watch this second link. It's a short video in which I explain absolutely everything about how to get the trading algos, how to get the mentorship for free as well, and how to access the VIP altcoin. This is where I will share the best long-term opportunities on altcoins from my point of view in these rooms, which will also unlock for you. You just need to watch this short tutorial, it takes 10 minutes to watch, and it explains absolutely everything.
So, coming back to Bitcoin, we are currently triggering a rebound. We had talked about this potential rebound, particularly through the divergence we had with the American indices. That is to say, we had a Bitcoin that was starting to hold up well here at the level of these lows, while the indices continued to fall. And it was the same thing, meaning that on Friday, at the start of the American session, we saw a bearish acceleration on the American indices. However, on Bitcoin, it did not accelerate; it continued to hold the previous low. And then, we see the formation of a breaker. So, we talked about this breaker block; it's a short-term reversal signal that can trigger a more significant rebound. We had talked about these stops to be triggered. Why? Because it corresponds precisely to the fair value gap zones we left behind us on the daily chart. And now, the market is doing what's called rebalancing. It's rebalancing the zones it left behind. So, it has filled the first zone, which extends up to $105,296, and we are trying to reach the next one between $109,300 and $107,200. So, in my opinion, we will reach this fair value gap zone, and it will be a rather important zone for what's next. What needs to be understood is that currently, we are on a rebound. Can we confirm a bottom here? Well, again, from a technical point of view, for now, we only see a simple rebound. What we see is that there is a nice consolidation here that ends up breaking to the north. That's rather encouraging. But it's too early to mark a bottom. The bottom, we see it afterward. I mean, in terms of dynamics, the price is still in a bearish dynamic. I mean, the price can very well do this. But again, should we wait for confirmation of confirmation? Not necessarily. I mean, these entry levels were interesting. Now, we can suspect that we will come back to test this low at some point, given the stops we are leaving here. It's as if we are quietly encouraging people to position themselves, to leave their stops here so that we can come and recover this large volume, probably a bit lower. But for now, it's rebound time. I don't see the price reversing for now on the hourly chart, so that's what we will observe, but for now, there is no reversal signal here. It could come in the next few hours, but for now, there isn't one. We see that we are working on the last fair value gaps we left behind, and broadly speaking, on the hourly chart, if we manage to break free from this FVG zone, the next objective will be to purge the stops above this high, meaning above $108,360. So, as long as I don't see any reversal signals, I expect Bitcoin to go higher, potentially above $108,000. So, I'm saying here, it could very well top out; it will be a zone to watch. And for now, there is no reversal signal. As I said, it's too early to talk about confirming a bottom, yes, it's certain that we've bottomed, it's good, we're going back to ATH, etc. What I will observe is the price on the weekly chart. I like to look at the weekly price for BTC. We can see that the previous high came to purge liquidity; it's this one. So, theoretically, we won't come back to this high now. That doesn't mean we won't come back to it. I mean, if we are bearish, in fact, if we are bearish, the price will no longer come back above this high. What it will do is retrace this move and often it will come into the premium zone of the last move. So, that would be here between $107,500 and $111,810. Well, that's convenient, in this premium zone, there is the previous weekly high. So, that's last week's high. For those who remember what I said last week, we didn't take any highs last week. What does that mean? It means that's why we were talking about this rebound, because we fell on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, etc., and at no point did we take stops. We see that we have only fallen since Sunday. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, we accumulated all the highs here. So, now the market is shaking out sellers. There is last week's high right here at $110,600. I'm telling you honestly, I wouldn't even be surprised if we went and took the stops above this high and then the price could fall again if we are truly engaged in this bearish dynamic. Unfortunately, on the weekly close, we have the validation of our breaker here. Well, it's not a clear validation, to be honest. What I like to see after a breaker is a fair value gap. Well, we are on the weekly chart. Theoretically, this breaker is there, and either we could expect, it's simply the retest of this breaker, and that also corresponds to our premium zone, etc., etc. So, what would be very positive for Bitcoin is the break of the last high at $116,000. But that's not what you should wait for to position yourself; it's too late. I mean, if, again, it depends if you are an investor, it doesn't matter, but if you are a swing trader and you wait for the market to go up here to position yourself, well, it's interesting to position yourself on monthly lows. You remember on the Alts, I often talk about yearly lows, etc., etc. On Bitcoin, on monthly lows, it's already starting to become interesting again if you still have a bullish bias. That was the low of October, so it's already an interesting zone. This zone will also be interesting if it's offered. It's the low of June, which covers our monthly fair value gap. Personally, I think we can still go back there, but what I think in the short term is that we are in this rebound perspective, and I'm telling you honestly, Bitcoin likes to go and seek the extreme levels here, what we call the buy stop zones, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we went and recovered last week's high, nothing more, nothing less. But broadly speaking, then, if we are still bearish, we would see something like this, unfortunately, a bearish continuation. Again, I don't know if we are still bearish. What I have in front of me is bearish on the weekly. As long as the market doesn't go back above this breaker block, we are in a dynamic that is bearish, which in my opinion would aim to take care of the levels we left behind, particularly the stops here at $98,200, but why not our fair value gap zone here on the weekly. For me, these remain levels that we could potentially reach during this quarter or perhaps early 2026. Now, again, if the price breaks back above the breaker as if nothing happened, well, let's go and make a new ATH, and at that point, there's no problem. We must not forget that we are in this megaphone dynamic, which is a rather complex and tricky dynamic. I've already talked about it, but broadly speaking, that's the dynamic we're in. We're going for the extremes; we're in something very volatile. The price is trying to make a return to ATH, and then in the coming weeks, it will purge the lows. I mean, this is really a very, very tricky price dynamic, where the market has no direction anymore; its only objective is to stimulate sentiment. Once people have capitulated, we make them FOMO again, pardon, in the other direction, and then the market comes back to seek lower levels, etc., etc. This is really the dynamic the market can be in. It's entirely possible. Now, given the price dynamic we have here, well, I would expect more that, to be honest, I was expecting a rejection in this zone for bearish continuation. This time, I expect more of this or this personally. Okay, that doesn't mean it will happen because I still think we will take care of this monthly FVG. Again, maybe we won't. But my main bias remains that we will take care of this monthly FVG. But it's not because I think we will take care of this monthly FVG that if you are an investor, you say, "Ah, well, I'm not positioning myself here because Cryptolone thinks we can reach the monthly FVG." You don't care. If it's investment, you don't care. If it's swing trading, it's up to you to manage your risk on what you see on the price here. But here, if you wanted to invest in Bitcoin and you're waiting precisely for $98,200 when the price has dropped to $99,003, well, I mean, that's investment. If we're talking long-term, and you buy $500 more than your initial price, you don't care. Even here, if you're interested in investing in Bitcoin long-term, the difference isn't huge. If we're talking long-term, again. Now, if we're talking swing trading, there were already inversion patterns to take. What is an inversion pattern? It's here, it's the retest of the breaker with, again, the hunt for the weekend low. So, that was Saturday's low. Right here, we recovered Saturday's low. A new breaker is forming here. There's already an entry signal for swing traders with an invalidation right here, and the risk-reward ratios are very interesting. But also, this pattern, simply taking the previous day's low, breaker block. This was also a trade that was entirely possible to take with a stop loss. Right here, there was easily 2R. Well, the 2R are almost reached. These are swing patterns taught in the mentorship. But here, if you enter here just because it's good, you think it will go up, your risk-reward isn't great. That doesn't mean it won't go up. It's just that theoretically, if you enter here, your stop is here, and then you have to see what you can target. If you want to target at least 1:1, you would have to retest the late October high. If you want to target, I don't know, for example, this weekly high, you're at 1:1, it's not super interesting. Well, it's not extremely bad, but it's not super interesting.
Let's move on to ETH here. On the indices side, I'll do a macro review later, but something really nice happened. It was a bit trickier than I thought. I was finally able to position myself on this low, I'll talk about it in the macro review, but the close, I find it superb. The weekly close, I find it great because ultimately the price closes within its weekly fair value gap. So, that's a good thing on the indices side. And on top of that, on the other side, we came to take the sell stops of the weekly low, which covered the entire rise, right here, on this daily low. So, this is really a very good reaction we're seeing on the American indices. Knowing that we've only been falling, we've left a lot of stops behind us. Well, I'll talk about it in the macro review, but for me, it wouldn't surprise me if the indices made an ATH this week or next week. So, that's rather encouraging to continue, ah yes, I forgot to mention it, to continue to have a bit of bullish flow on the indices. Well, of course, there's Trump's check wanting to give $2,000 to every American. Well, here, he's putting enormous pressure on the American administration and probably on the Fed, to try to release liquidity quickly. But that's another debate. Also, we have here the correlation with the indices to observe. For example, if you start to see the indices do this, the indices rising strongly and then Bitcoin starting to struggle like this, well, that would be the same signal as here, but in a bearish way. This is bullish, that would be bearish. It would indicate that Bitcoin is starting to weaken and that broadly speaking, at the slightest dip in the indices, it's over for it, it will go down like this. So, that's what we're going to observe. Will Bitcoin weaken or not? That will be extremely important. That's why I have this chart to look at the strength of the EUR/USD. Generally, I put the dollar and to look at Bitcoin and the indices to see a bit if one is faltering compared to the others. These signals are very powerful. That's what allowed us to identify the bottom, or rather the rebound here. I still think it's too early to talk about a bottom.
Ethereum, the zone is perfect. Even on the monthly chart, what has been done is not bad, since we've been stuck in this monthly candle for 1, 2, this is the 3rd month now. We came to hunt for stops to the south. We came into the FVG zone. Theoretically, there's a pattern where this is what's called the candle range theory. I explain it in the mentorship, where the logical continuation is ATH. And what would confirm that we're going to ATH is also the fact that we maintain the first stop, the 38.2% retracement. That doesn't mean we're going to ATH on Ethereum; it means there's a pattern where as long as the price doesn't settle below the range candle we were in here on the monthly chart, meaning it shouldn't close below this candle, there's a possibility to go and take stops to the north, meaning to make a new ATH. That doesn't mean it will be the case, quite simply. And what would be needed to validate this pattern, in addition to this here in terms of confluence, is to maintain the 382. For now, that's the case. We talked about this zone on Ethereum, $3,353. For now, the first stop is maintained. We can see that, again, we came to take the previous day's low. We have a nice reaction from the price here. And so, we are taking care of the fair value gap zones. So, for me, there's nothing more to say. We had talked about these zones in case of a rebound. That was a bit of the bias on Bitcoin, the rebound. So, it's the same thing on Ethereum. The dynamic remains bearish. This zone was extremely interesting. I'll say it again. This is where we're playing for a rebound, I talked about that last week too. And now, what we're observing is how the price reacts in the FVG zones. Also, what I invite you to note is last week's high on Ether, because we see here that we came to take last week's high, and we reversed. So, what we're going to observe is exactly the same thing here. I'll note "previous week high" for last week's high in French. And so, we're taking care of these fair value gap zones. We see how it reacts. I wouldn't be surprised if we went and purged the stops, and that's what interests me. Does the price do this or this? If the price shows strength and remains strong, that's super positive. That would confirm a bottom, for example. Okay, the zone itself is a potential bottom zone; it needs to be maintained. Basically, we absolutely don't want to see this on Ethereum. Retesting this low would be really bad. What's needed here is to maintain the shorts here. So, we stopped the longs, we blocked the shorts, and so now we're taking advantage of it to continue putting pressure. But if the price makes a rebound and comes back towards the highs, for me, that's not good at all. It would indicate more of a break, and that would confirm the break of the first stop. And that would confirm more of a bearish swing action, probably the reload zone, and then it would be Ethereum between $2,400 and $1,700. So, that's really what we're going to observe. Are we making another lower high or not?
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the like button, leave a comment, and subscribe. A huge thank you to those who are playing along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, lots of free content for you, Bitgate bonuses, etc. Don't hesitate to take advantage of them. We'll meet again later for the macro review and for another crypto video tonight. See you soon.