Transcription
A Bitcoin at $65,560, down 5.5% in 24 hours, nearly 20% in 30 days, breaking all its support levels. Widespread panic in crypto markets, funding rates turning negative again, geopolitical news fueling fear. In short, the climate is quite anxiety-inducing for Bitcoin this morning, and we will take a global look at what led to this movement. Are the conditions that generated this downward movement on Bitcoin for several weeks now, since Wednesday, May 6th, are they finally behind us? Is the worst still ahead of us? We will address this. I will explain my point of view to you frankly. You know I like to give you my point of view, backed by data. I remind you that I have a quantitative approach to the market. So, I observe many indicators spread across five pillars, distributed within this member area, which I have synthesized in this member area accessible to members of my investment circle. The technical part, obviously, since many of the things that happened today were predictable from a technical standpoint. Obviously, the bulk of what happened today was very closely linked to derivative contracts, and I will explain why. Finally, we have the on-chain part and the macroeconomic part, which will play a major role in what happens precisely here. So, we will look together at what will happen. Obviously, market sentiment currently has fundamental importance, we will see, but we have a Fear and Greed index around 12%. So, we really have something that is tipping into extreme fear. But it is obviously necessary to discern and interpret all of this to be able to have a reliable reading that allows us to re-expose ourselves gently if we wish, or to protect capital if necessary. So, we will go straight to the technical part. Well, the technical part, Bitcoin is breaking its support levels. It has been frankly visible since our $75,000. $75,000, which constituted the bulk of our support zone at the time when we broke below it. Personally, in the investment circle, we rather exited around $80,000, precisely on May 14th. That's when I sent my first message to massively reduce exposure because we had signals that were already starting to signal caution, starting with an RSI that was starting to tire, funding rates that were starting to rise, and so little by little it was the right signal to start reducing exposure. We see that from $75,000, what followed was totally predictable. Now, obviously, I know this can be annoying to hear, especially if you haven't anticipated it. And that's why I really want to be 100% transparent with you. You have the possibility to go to my website, the link to which is in the description, and to directly observe the track record to see exactly what I am talking about. It's a track record that is updated in real-time. You see here the performance of my portfolio, a performance that is obviously enhanced because I decided to take a short trade a long time ago now, for over a week. You see here on Bitunix, which is my partner platform. I invite those who are looking for an exchange with interesting liquidity to be able to position themselves this way on futures, on spot, to be able to switch from one to the other easily on a non-KYC exchange. It's very interesting. So, you have all the links in the description to do so. You see, from around $75,000, precisely $75,270, I opened a short position that has been reinforced. So, in fact, I reinforced the short position as support levels were broken, when I observed interesting things, namely that, as we saw, on the funding side, we had a generalized rise in funding rates during a period when open interest was not decreasing, and so that was a signal that there would be a purge, that an important liquidity zone would need to be recovered before a real reversal. And we had this liquidity zone precisely on the return to $62,000. Now, this is a zone that I was targeting, that I was obviously targeting because when we started to see a rise in this rally, this very significant bullish rally up to $83,000, we recovered a lot of liquidity from aggressive sellers. All these sellers who thought we would reach $40,000-$50,000 in the coming weeks. Well, this upward movement that we experienced throughout April, these sellers did not believe in it. They took short positions one after another, a short, then a short, then a short, until they were liquidated one after another, until they were sufficiently tired for us to then truly resume the movement when funding rates turned and the majority of influencers, the majority of the crypto population finally changed their bias and eventually turned positive again. And you see that this positive movement only ended today, only today. And that's why until yesterday, I was still in position. Now, I bought back my short, you see it right here at $63,560. So, precisely in this area, I took a short again. Obviously, all of this is shared in my investment circle, you see it right here. Opening of the short position, in real-time at $75,270 with the stop loss, increase of the short position, then another increase, and finally a closure with a PNL of +24% of the entire portfolio, which is relatively enormous. You can imagine, it corresponds to my risk profile. I don't necessarily advise you to take this kind of trade if you are not comfortable, but in any case, protect capital. That's why, personally, globally, within our investment circle community, we had protected our capital by exiting a good portion at $80,000, then the rest at $76,000 because the subsequent movement was going to be of great amplitude, and that was very linked, as we saw, to derivative contracts. Derivative contracts, which show 35% in this member area, indicating that we are still rather bearish. We are expecting a sideways stabilization direction, given what we saw with these derivative contracts. We still have whales distributing. This is something that is always very important. We still have this shadow on the horizon, even if, in my opinion, it is starting to have a little less weight than in the past, but look at this indicator, it has rarely been so low. This Whale versus Retail Delta is the difference in positions between small portfolios and whale portfolios. Whales are considered when they have tens, hundreds of millions in their portfolios. And so, when we are around this zero level, it means that whales are long and shorts are, or small portfolios are long, or whales are short and small portfolios are short. In short, that there is coherence between the positions of the small and the large. As soon as we deviate from this zero level, it means that whales are taking positions different from retail positions. And this indicator is obviously extremely important because you always want to be positioned on the side of portfolios worth hundreds of millions, managed by fund managers, who have a lot of information, the ability to call CEOs of companies, who have the ability to get information from BlackRock, from large investors, large portfolios, to know what to do. And you want to be positioned in the same direction as them because they have much more to lose, they are much more informed, and they proceed with much more method than small portfolios. And that's why when we see this indicator starting to strongly swing back upwards, it shows us that whales are buying heavily compared to small portfolios. And the reverse is also true. We observe that when this indicator drops massively, it is generally when whales are extremely bearish while small portfolios are bullish. The difference is that now we have reached a major liquidity point. We are starting to see a slight rebound. You see that this indicator is showing some fatigue. Now, there hasn't been a massive awakening yet, as we saw around $60,000 on February 5th. There hasn't been a major whale awakening. But what is extremely interesting is to see that on the spot side, in terms of actual Bitcoin holdings, something very interesting has just happened. Now, obviously, all these indicators are paid. Glassnode costs around a hundred euros per month, maybe a little more. Altracatal, which I showed you just now. These are indicators that cost around $100-$100+ per month as well. And that's why I synthesize all of this. I synthesize all of this in my member area with a reinterpretation of all of this for my investment circle to centralize all these subscriptions and give you access to a maximum of indicators, a maximum of data, to be alerted to what could happen. So, this is exactly what you see here with whales distributing versus retail, and it's based on this kind of indicator. What is important is to see that the accumulation trend score, which had strongly returned towards zero at the beginning of the decline. Now, this is not a magic indicator. We simply scan all the transactions that have occurred on the Bitcoin blockchain. And if we have small transactions, meaning transactions with small amounts, that are buying, and large transactions that are rather selling, then in this case, we will have a trend score that approaches zero. Conversely, when we have large transactions with large amounts that are buying and many small selling transactions, then we will approach one. Because we estimate that large portfolios are absorbing small portfolios, absorbing Bitcoin from small portfolios, and we consider this to be accumulation versus distribution when large portfolios are dumping their Bitcoin towards small ones. And so, what we observe recently during this decline, we had a distribution, a distribution that took place notably around $75,000. I told you that opening our short at $75,000 was not insignificant. We simply reached the zero level. Precisely at $77,000, we reached zero. This meant we were in an extreme distribution phase, which then slowed down, as during the decline, we started to see some re-accumulation by large portfolios. And what is very interesting is to see that recently, precisely when we reached our $61,500, we observe that the accumulation trend score, if I can select it, has swung back. There, you see it at the 0.50 level. 0.50 is higher than what we had on February 5th when we reached our $60,000. We reached 0.46 on this accumulation trend score at the time. What is interesting is not so much the figure itself. Although the figure is interesting in itself, what is interesting is to see the dynamic. During this drop, we had purchases. This is also visible precisely on the order book pressure. Now, I will show it to you right here. The order book pressure that you see on Coinbase is intensifying massively, precisely since $65,000, we have massive purchases. Coinbase is absorbing the supply that is being sold at a loss. We have a lot of Bitcoin being sold at a loss by small portfolios that are panicking, ETF holders that are panicking. You have a lot of bad news. If I opened my X news feed this morning, frankly, it was all red. Geopolitics deteriorating, economic data deteriorating, Trump's statements, Bitcoin sellers, traders, everyone is bearish. Everyone, everyone, everyone is bearish. This is easily observable in market sentiment, with market sentiment starting to plunge sharply. I told you, the Fear and Greed index is at 12, in extreme fear. And obviously, this is transmitted on X. We have a convergence between the price drop and the drop in the Fear and Greed index, which is rather positive. In any case, there are no major panic signals at this level. Obviously, what we need to observe is if Bitcoin rises in a still bearish sentiment, then we could have the rally of disbelief that we had in April, and we could have the same thing, which would recover the liquidity from the other side this time. After a very significant long squeeze, we could have the same thing, that is to say, a more significant short squeeze to recover all the liquidity we left lying around above us. Because there, we saw it, if I show you over the last 6 months, well, it was clear, it was logical. If I held my trade for so long and if I just closed it, it's not for nothing, it's because I was waiting for the return to this $62,155 level. This is a level that was particularly anticipated by the market. A huge number of long positions that had been built since February 24th had their stop orders precisely at these levels. And that's why as soon as we had our bearish acceleration, the price target was unique. It was $62,155. Does this mean we have the bottom? No. Does it mean we have a higher probability of a local bottom than a continued bearish trend? Yes. And it's very simple. When we observe here over 6 months of trading, 6 months of long and short positions on derivative contracts, you see the imbalance, it's massive between short and long positions. The market moves from liquidity pockets to liquidity pockets. This is obviously something you need to understand to be able to navigate price configurations because you have an S&P 500 that is rising, you have a rather good macroeconomy. We see it on the macroeconomic news. The figures released yesterday are still extremely bullish. We have an ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. So, I remind you that this is an indicator on which we ask purchasing managers about their perspectives for the weeks and months ahead. And you see that it is coming out higher than expected and higher than the previous month. For the Services PMIs, there is a slight dip, but you see that overall, we are rather well oriented. The Joltz report released on Tuesday on new job openings, there is a spectacular increase in new job openings. The US economy is holding up very well, and it's no coincidence that US markets are doing so well, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at ATHs, holding their overbought zones with rather bullish momentum. Now, we are marking stabilization zones on momentum. So, obviously, this could potentially mean that we need consolidation, a healthy consolidation, but a correction, that's not necessarily what is to be expected. The US economy, I tell you, is holding up very, very well. And so, a growing US economy that is holding up well with employment that is still very relevant in a context where inflation is gradually stabilizing or even receding, well, that's great for the markets because it means the US Federal Reserve doesn't need to act immediately. The risk of stagflation is potentially behind us. We see it on the macro side, but you see the risk of stagflation is rather behind us because we are rather in a risk of disinflation than in a risk of inflation. So, in any case, in a risk of more moderate inflation. Now, disinflation is still far behind us, it's rather far from us, but for now, stagflation is rather far. We have economic growth in a context where inflation is stable or declining. That's perfect. That's perfect. You see, it's the famous Goldilocks quadrant, which is automatically calculated from the liquidity of our real rates, the 10-year rate minus inflation, Fed expectations, etc. This Goldilocks market regime, or "boucle d'or" in French, is extremely relevant for stocks. Extremely relevant for stocks and for risk assets in general, you see that the dollar is rather bearish, I remind you. The entire interface is generated so that at zero we are rather bearish, at 100 we are rather bullish. US indices are extremely bullish. The dollar is rather bearish. And so, that's rather very good. And so, you see that we are in a regime where everything is going perfectly. We have liquidity that is starting to expand again. Now, it's still quite slight. Expansion is slowing down a bit, certainly, but we are still in a monetary mass expansion regime, which is obviously very important for Bitcoin. The rate cut regime is still rather distant. So, rate hikes are anticipated, we saw it just now, rate hikes are anticipated from the beginning of January 2027. But this could change significantly, and it could change if this inflation stabilizes. And that is totally probable. We have a US economy, as we saw, that is holding up month after month since January. These ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs are only increasing. They are in a very good upward trend. Now, I will even show it to you here. You can see it by adding a curve. There, new price scale. You see these Non-Manufacturing PMIs. I will put it in weekly. There, these Non-Manufacturing PMIs that are only increasing month after month. We are in an upward trend, you see it in blue right here on this curve. And this is a very relevant signal. Obviously, the few times we have had a very strong upward trend on this ISM indicator, it has been extremely bullish for the S&P 500. We saw it in the 2020-2021 period, late 2020, early 2021. We also saw it in the 2008 period up to 2011 with a bull run recovery in US stocks. This has been the case almost in each of our bull markets, and you see that it corresponds obviously to our bull markets for Bitcoin, which are very often correlated with bull markets for risk assets and stocks. You see, the few times, particularly in 2020-2021, when we had a massive increase in this indicator of US purchasing managers, well, you see that it went very well for Bitcoin. Now, the regime is very different, the market regime is very different, but what is important is to see the trend. And here, the trend is still very good at the moment. [grumble] So, this does not mean, and I don't want you to start thinking that I am ultra-bullish and so on. I just closed a trade during the night, a trade that was rather very bearish, but we have currently reached extremely relevant zones to potentially play a rebound. We will see it over 7 days. We have excessively many short positions that have entered with stops at the $75,000 level. Over 1 month, we have excessively many short positions that have their stops between $75,000 and $85,000. You see that we have practically 90% of the liquidity that is short in the market, in a context where on the spot side, accumulation is strong. We see it on Coinbase. Now, I don't know if I showed you on Binance, but on Binance, it's the same thing. Strong accumulation there as well. So, at some point here, we have a transfer, strong hand, weak hand. We have small portfolios capitulating, large portfolios buying, in a context where macroeconomics is potentially calming down, and therefore, we could have a bullish recovery. From a technical point of view, we are still quite weak, we see 38%. We still have quite a few shadows on the horizon. We see it on the daily momentum, we are rather poorly oriented. We will see it. The only positive thing is this weekly momentum. You see it, the weekly momentum that is holding up for now. We have not recovered our low point on weekly momentum, the low point we reached on March 2nd. So, for now, despite the fact that we have gone lower in terms of price than on March 2nd, we do not have a closing below on the RSI. However, you see on the daily, we are still in a very, very bearish trend. We have reached 18 on the daily RSI. This is obviously an oversold zone. Now, as it stands, this does not mean we will rebound. However, historically, these are rather zones where we see a reversal because in fact, there is such selling pressure that it is difficult to maintain this selling pressure even further. I remind you that to have a decline, you need more sellers than buyers. The fact is that sellers have almost all pressed the sell button in recent days. And so, there are not that many people left to capitulate. Now, there are still some, and that is obviously the case when we look at derivative contracts with, as you see on this indicator, if it wants to display, there, on this indicator with open interest that has deflated but is still quite high, at $40 billion. Obviously, we have the possibility, the possibility to go lower, but you see that we have slightly exhausted the trend. Leverage cleaned up, funding and OI decreasing, funding rates decreasing with open interest decreasing. You see, funding is starting to decrease. We see it on Binance. I will show you right here. But there, we will see it on a 30-minute time scale. You see, we had our first passes into negative funding around $63,000. We are starting to see a slight inversion of market sentiment, exactly like what we could have seen at the $80,000 level where you see that we were very bearish for a long time and that we started to have small passages into bullish funding during our top phase. And so, in fact, this showed, this signified the inversion of trends, of sentiment on derivative contracts, with sellers who had gradually given up, buyers who were repositioning themselves, and so this is what signaled our top because I remind you that we ultimately have quite little volume currently, that we ultimately have quite little movement on this Bitcoin market and on this altcoin market. So, ultimately, the only game for market makers, for exchanges, for large investment funds, is to play with Bitcoin, with the psychology of the few actors present, to recover liquidity higher up, to recover liquidity lower down, and ultimately to introduce nothing more nor less than a range zone, a weak zone to re-accumulate in view of the future cycle. We have a lot of opportunities that are starting to materialize in altcoins. Now, this is something that I reserve for my investment circle. By the way, if you wish, you have all the links in the description to understand what this investment circle is and to know if it could be for you. If you have questions, by the way, you have the possibility to contact me via Telegram to learn a bit more. But you see, on the long-term oscillator side. Now, I am on the Puell Multiple on-chain. You see that we are in zones that are historically very interesting to reposition. You see it here, these are remarkable zones, zones that we have rarely reached, usually during bottom phases, post-FTX crash, post-Terra Luna crash. After the zone of 2018-2019, after the November 2018 crash, we had similar phases to this one. This is also visible on the MVRV, market value versus real value. So, what we observe here are really capitulation zones. Now, it could be worse, totally. Are we in the capitulation phase? I don't know, but I remind you that a bottom is not declared. We cannot say at this point that we are at a bottom, we will only know that later. However, we can know that we are in a bottom zone where there is an asymmetry between risk and reward. Currently, if you think after a drop of more than, let's see, of more than 25%, if you think that after a drop of almost 25% in a straight line, we have a higher probability of continuing the decline than of slowing down and making a technical rebound, then I think you are mistaken, and in any case, statistics and history prove you wrong because currently we have rather all the elements that suggest that we could have a rebound, at least a technical rebound that would at least liquidate this $75,000 zone, in my opinion, which is still much higher than current prices. And then, we will see. So, will we have to go and recover $60,000 by then? I see many people talking about it. $60,000 is $54,000. Indeed, when we look at the liquidity zone, we observe that we have a liquidity zone between $57,000 and $53,000. Certainly. Will we have to go and recover them by then? You see that the major zone was there. It was between $62,700 and $61,500. It's not for nothing that I closed my short within it, because we had a very high probability of recovering this zone and bouncing from it. So, if you wanted to close your short, you had to do it in this zone. If you wanted to buy Bitcoin, you have to do it in this zone. It's not later that you have to do it. Now, I see too many people starting to target $55,000, $50,000, $45,000. I have even seen $29,500. Now, obviously, we could return there. Obviously, if MicroStrategy goes bankrupt with unrealized losses of over $8.5 billion, that starts to be a problem, same for Tommy Lee on Ethereum, we could totally have a bankruptcy of this type of company that would put a new blow. It's probable. Is it the most probable scenario? Honestly, I'm not sure. And you see, for now, we have recovered the major liquidity zone, and ultimately, even if there is liquidity below, it might not be the most favorable zone. You see that what we did in reverse, when we recovered $83,000, we had liquidity above us, but in fact, we simply fed on this liquidity to set a top and go back down. Well, here, we could simply do the opposite, set up a range phase for a few days before going back up, and then we will adjust. And this is the principle of active management, this is the principle of risk management, that currently the risk-reward is more favorable for buying than for selling. Obviously, with a daily RSI at 17, with a 4-hour RSI that is showing a divergence and has gone to the 11 zone, obviously here, we have a higher probability of a short-term rebound, a break of this famous parabola that you see here in yellow that I have displayed, this famous bearish parabola that you see here, well, the probability of breaking it is quite significant. So, you see my point of view a bit. I have presented all of this to you. Bitcoins are leaving exchange platforms. This is typical of capitulation phases. We have a lot of buying on spot. We saw it with the accumulation trend score, it's increasing. Obviously, the Bitcoins that are bought are stored on ledgers. So, this is gradually decreasing, structurally, this selling pressure. And so, that's why, personally, I believe that we have a lot of probability to rebound in these zones. There are buying zones at $60,000 that are present, so potentially, we could go and recover them. I am not sure that this is the market's objective. In any case, personally, I believe that waiting for $60,000 as a signal and absolutely wanting to buy in these zones is a bit too greedy. We have just dropped 25%. If you want to buy back, well, maybe it's time to start doing it. So, I will stop here for this video. For all those who wish, do not hesitate, you have the possibility to subscribe to my newsletter and download a manifesto of almost 90 pages of strategy and market understanding that allows you to benefit from almost 9 years of experience in the crypto market. So, if you want to learn a bit more, train yourself for free, you have the possibility to do so via the links in the description. And if you wish to take it to the next level, to have access to this member area which is a concentration of everything I monitor, everything I observe, and which is synthesized, you see it in the home section in paragraphs that synthesize the market vision each morning with indicators to watch, things to do and not to do. You see the market being scored with a figure each time that explains a bit the best things to do, that explains which pillars are the most bullish and the most bearish. We see it on-chain. I haven't shown it to you, but we have a short-term on-chain dynamic that is still rather bearish, but a position in the cycle that is starting to become particularly interesting to reposition. So, I wish you an excellent weekend. We will meet again as soon as possible for a new public video on YouTube. See you soon. Goodbye.