Transcription
Welcome to another day in the matrix. This is Red Pill podcast 224. And just as I was preparing today's podcast, Bitcoin broke out yet again, hitting a very symbolic 119K on this fine Sunday. And during this move, we're seeing some of the altcoins that I actually accumulated last month going crazy. Notably, Stellar Lumens and Har. We have the Hideera play up about 60% and the XLM play is up 80% bringing what I said in my last YouTube video to life in just a couple days where in that video I mentioned that if you felt like you were missing out on XRP at current prices that XLM was a solid backup plan since my TA was showing me that there was way more ROI ahead for Stellar Lumens and here we are up 80% since I released that last video. Let me quickly check in on where XLM is right now. Trading at about 46. Absolutely wild. And of course, we can't forget about XRP showing strength, returning back to this $2.80 range on the second anniversary of what some are calling XRP's Independence Day. Since two years ago on this exact day, we had Judge Torres officially deem XRP not a security on July 13th, 2023. Of course, we're referencing the SEC and Ripple lawsuit, that ongoing case. And here we are 2 years later to the day, looking better than ever, and gearing up for price discovery very soon.
So, with these markets breaking out and us only being 24 hours away from the start of crypto week, the exoteric event that everyone in the space will be focusing on. Of course, this means we have a lot to cover in today's Red Pill. And like I promised last week, we'll actually be dedicating today's red pill to decoding how the crypto market moves during Mercury retrograde. Since I've received so many requests to cover that over the past couple weeks, especially since the last couple years of me covering how Mercury retrograde influences the crypto market has given us an unbelievable level of accuracy for how this market will trade, not only during that time frame, but also for the following two weeks after. So, what we're going to cover today will be giving us the blueprint for how the next 5 to 7 weeks are going to play out.
Now, really quickly before we kick off today's podcast, this is just a final reminder for those that are interested in joining my university since enrollment will be closing down tomorrow, Monday, at midnight Pacific time. So, if you're interested in learning how to create your own business and monetize your passion to bring more cash flow into your life to support your investment journey here, then check out the link in the description or in the pin comment below. And since you are a Patreon supporter, a member of our mastermind community here, you actually unlock the one and only discount available for our university. and you'll be able to find that exclusive promo code and everything else that you need to know in the description below the video. So, that discount code will be below. And now that this crypto market has taken off and we're soon to be moving into the stages of taking profits during the next phase of this bull run, this makes now the perfect time to join our university so that you can start building out your foundation for the rest of this bull run and be thoroughly prepared for supporting your investment journey holistically and start putting in the time towards bringing your vision to life. And for those who join us over in our university, I'll be connecting with you very soon. Since our next university meeting will be this upcoming Thursday, July 17th, and I'll be hosting a Q&A that day to kick off this new July cohort, where we'll be focusing our Q&A on the topic of wealth, which is perfect since our next special guest in our university that I'll be interviewing very soon will be showing us a full presentation on how to accelerate the process of paying off debt. And this will be the perfect cohort for me to dive deeper into credit card cashback rewards strategies. Everyone's been asking me about that. So, I'll be teaching how to leverage debt and use credit cards in a way that the banks will be paying you instead of you having to pay the banks. And I'll also have another special guest for our university lined up shortly after that which will focus on overall investment strategy, not just in crypto, also covering the long-term vision for investments and wealth planning in general. So, I'll just leave it at that because I know it sounds like it's going to be a crazy amount of value and that's because it is. The next couple months in our university is going to be absolutely lit. So, I cannot wait to kick it off this week and have some new members here join us. Again, the link to the enrollment and the promo code can be found in the description or in the pinned comment below.
Now, let's get into today's Red Pill. As always, make sure to get relaxed. Make sure to get comfortable. Grab yourself a cup of coffee or tea if it's a little earlier in the day, or a glass of wine or beer if it's getting a little later out there in the matrix. I myself am boring and just drinking some water. And also, please make sure to comment below this post here on Patreon to vote on the altcoins you'd like me to cover in next week's Red Pill podcast. But before you leave a comment, just make sure you use the search function here on Patreon to check that I have not covered that project in at least 3 months. And if it's been over 3 months since I've reviewed that altcoin, or if I've never covered that altcoin before, as long as it has at least one year of chart history, you can go ahead and comment below with the name of the altcoin and include the ticker symbol next to it as well. And whatever submissions get the most likes, those top four will be selected for next week's red pill.
So, as mentioned, we have a very important time frame for these markets that we're approaching as we speak. And that's, of course, the time frame of Mercury retrograde. Something that I've been tracking here at Waters Above for at least 3 years now. And there's definitely a pattern that plays out during this time frame that you need to be aware of. So, that's what we're going to cover here in this red pill decode. First things first, we'll kick this off by reviewing our past iterations of Mercury retrograde to see how Bitcoin traded during that time frame. And this will reveal to us how this upcoming Mercury retrograde on Friday, July 18th is likely to play out for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. So, we're going to start here with the last iteration that we had back in March 2025. And you'll see a couple things. For one, we dumped into Mercury retrograde. By the way, all these red boxes from the start to the end of the red box is Mercury retrograde. This one is actually a little bit confusing to see because we had Venus retrograde overlapping with Mercury retrograde. So, sorry if this looks confusing, but the red box starts here. Nevertheless, we corrected into that time frame. You could see that we actually bottomed out maybe 3 or 4 days before it. And then this is the second thing that we typically see during Mercury retrograde measuring from day one over to about 5 days or so. You see this kind of pump fake where we move up have a fake out and we dump right back down to similar prices and then typically overall we end this whole phase sideways. So Mercury retrograde was concluded around here. But you can see that if we just look from left to right this effectively didn't move too much. We chopped a bit but from start to finish pretty much the same. Then of course as we left that time frame we had this shadow phase and we broke out after it. This gray box is for the shadow period which is the two weeks that follows Mercury retrograde. So dump sideways day five or so kind of a pump fake fake out and then we end it around the same price that we started.
Now, let's go back. Also, very similar. You can see that we were overall sideways, but I have a green box here for what we would call a bullish Mercury retrograde. It's not so rare, but they do occur about 25% of the time. So, it's of course important that we map these out. And this will help us determine, of course, future iterations of Mercury retrograde. But another thing we see is topping out before Mercury retrograde and then having a correction into Mercury retrograde. Then on day four, five or so, a little bit of a pump fake to the upside. We came back down and then generally we ended this one off pretty bullish. Nice to see. Now we're going to the prior one and we have again topping out before Mercury retrograde here. It was about 6 days out. Big correction into the start of Mercury retrograde. And then what's crazy is even though we were bullish overall and we had this major like kind of crashing structure, you'll see that from the day Mercury stations retrograde till the last day when Mercury is stationing direct, we were actually pretty similar prices. I mean, if you look at the open price and you look at where we wicked down on the final day, it's the same. Pretty wild. But note how we're topping out before Mercury stations retrograde. Then we have the prior iteration again. We have effectively topping out four, five or so days before a correction into the start of Mercury retrograde. This little pump fake that we get about 5 to 7 days in. And this one was pretty rough because it was absolutely a fake out. As you can see, we went much lower. But look, if you go to the last day of Mercury retrograde and you look at where we were trading right around Mercury stationing uh retrograde initially, very similar prices. So, we're seeing a pattern here. I'm going to go to this iteration. It's also quite similar. When you look from start to finish, barely nudged, just kind of chopped around. But the pattern remains. We're topping out about 5 days or so before. And here it took us about 7 days. So this is why I've been saying 527 days to get this kind of pump fake move and you could see we stalled out and again sideways shadow period was very bullish though. So that that's that's nice to see.
Okay, here we are. We have another overlap between Venus retrograde and Mercury retrograde, but we're going to be focusing on the red box today. And we have us topping out, you know, about a week before we started to show some obvious weakness. Let me check if there was a new moon here because if there was, there was. Yeah, there's a new moon here. So, this is the August new moon flash crash. I warned everyone about this in advance when it was about to happen. August is very dangerous with the new moon. This is why I'm teaching everyone here to be cautious um bull to be bullish past um August 23rd or so, the upcoming August new moon. You don't want to bank on being, you know, bullish on an event that's kind of like a cyclical pattern, right? But bullish until that date. Yes, that's at least how I feel. Just going to quickly check the mic. We're good. One second. I'm just going to take a quick sip of water. All right. So, we can see here correction into Mercury retrograde. A crazy pattern we have of 5 to seven days in a pump fake, return back to the downside, ended it overall sideways. I mean, look at this man. Barely moved. Got this iteration right here again. Dump into Mercury retrograde. We topped out 7 days before and then you can see about seven six days out we have our pump fake and then we come back down. also closing around the [ __ ]. It's amazing, man. Closing around the same price on day one to the last day.
Now, we're going to look at this one. A very important um bullish Mercury retrograde example where you can see here we um didn't really have too much uh more room to the downside because we were at the bottom of our bare market. Remember, Bitcoin was at like 15K over here. But you can see this Jcurve style breakout. And we were bullish throughout the entirety of uh Mercury retrograde and the shadow phase pretty much effectively topping on the final day of that shadow period before an 11 or so% correction. These are less common, but we do need to again point them out because we can't just deny the patterns. Now again, we have this pump fake day 5 through 7. Obvious pump fake here because we came back to around the same price as we were at at the beginning of Mercury retrograde and then from the day one to the final day sideways also did correct uh you know like let's call it 7 days or so before we already started dumping into Mercury retrograde. This example here is pretty clear. Also we have the day six pump fake down sideways crashed into it. Same. Same. Here we have um this is just awful. No bueno. But this was deep into the bare. This was at the like start of the bare market. Anyways, I'm not skipping this one. I'm just showing you that, you know, it does have pretty much the same pattern because look at this day right here, February 4th, 2022. The day after Mercury stations retrograde. We are literally at the bottom wick price of the first day of Mercury retrograde. So again, even if it's like super elusive and we have a huge correction, there's some return back to normaly. I don't know how, but it's just what it does. Really crazy.
Okay, here we have a bullish iteration. This one also similar pattern. We have about 7 or so days out. We started to correct pretty heavy but still corrected into the start of Mercury retrograde and pretty much from there on out we were bullish throughout the entire time. And this was the cycle peak. Um note how every time we have a bullish Mercury retrograde I am labeling the quarter that it happens in. So we'll return back to that later. But I feel like um we're in the midst of something similar to like this. But I'll share my thoughts on that later. Here we have a Mercury retrograde, which I think is very similar to the one we just had back in March. Uh the one that was in alignment with the March total lunar eclipse that went through the time frame of liberation day and the April 7th bottom. And and by the way, speaking of April 7th, just quickly want to show you guys something. You notice how today's super bullish and Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. Well, if you take from April 7th, the 47 date, been talking about this a lot lately. That would be the 97th day of the year. Remember, we're in the year of the snake. The snake is the serpent 97. And also crypto, what we're focused on here is 97. So, we have on the 97th day of the year, the entire market crashes. And then we have 97 days later is today. So if you wanted to uh kind of call the ETH the pivot date and you wanted to put it the day out and then add the end date and call it July 14th, you could look at it that way as well. I mean, that's that's fair considering there are people who live in Australia even though the Australian market and economy doesn't matter at all in this kind of context. But no no offense to Australia. I'm just it's obviously unimportant in the grand scheme of things. We do have this um connection here with the 97 to today. It would be I think really fascinating if today was the top. Uh I'm not going to call it that. I just want to say because we have the 97 to 97 correction, the 97 and the gumatri of crypto etc etc. But then also we have 718 is five days from today which is kind of that five days before Mercury stations retrograde pattern. You know you know what I'm saying? So it wouldn't shock me if starting tomorrow we got a little bit of like a rejection type energy. And this could even come in tonight with the CME opening up with the Chicago Merkantile Exchange opening up. But I'm not going to put too much energy into that because you guys know my overall analysis is just up. We are up until latest September 7th, 2025. Whatever happens between now and then is just like at best buy the dip opportunities, but we should have already been buying the dip. This is why I didn't buy over the last 30 days, not because I was afraid or because I didn't want to or any of that. It was just because I already derisked and I already took profits on certain things and I relocated to stuff back in a time frame where I was just ready to deploy and if we went down a little bit I wasn't concerned. If we would have pumped immediately from there it doesn't also concern me because I was pretty confident that we would go up. So my last buys in this market I feel very good about not worried as to wherever we go over the next 3 to four or five days. If you're somebody who's not exposed to this market, well, you're just kind of waiting and waiting and waiting, I think, a little too long, or you're just scared of what the market's doing, and that's fine. I would avoid being that type of person right now, though, because that's like kind of what the market maker wants to do to you. They want to psych you out. And I do feel there's a little too much FOMO going on right now. I do admit. So again, I wouldn't be shocked if we do have a momentarily kind of top out vibe over the coming hours, maybe into later today when CME opens. And I do believe we have a pretty noticeable CME gap at around 114K for Bitcoin. And that alone would put a lot of pressure on the altcoins, even if Bitcoin dominance was to keep going down. So I'm just sharing some thoughts off the top of my head right now because we do have a couple of really awesome connections. Today being 97 days after the 97th day of the year, tied back to crypto and the year, the Chinese year that we're in. And also, we would be five days um before Mercury stations retrograde. Again, a pattern that we're seeing quite often. Just look right here, 3 days or so. This daily close was about 5 days. We correct pretty hard into Mercury retrograde. I mean, this was 18% correction and then we chopped overall. But look at the pump fake that we have about 5 days deep. So, what would that mean? I mean, if we were looking at 5 days from the 18th, that would mean that around July 23rd through July 25th that we would move up if we were to correct into this date. Would that be weird, guys? No. Because that is the upcoming new moon. It's very typical. All right. And then depending on how high we move up and if August is really going to be as bullish as I think it's going to be, which by the way, I do think it's going to be quite bullish, we could even get a new moon correction like we've been getting. And that won't be bad because the market will be so high that it'll just be a a tiny little correction along the way. And also, we have the upcoming FOMC to finish off the month. But that's enough of like my side talk. Uh, let's get back to this.
We have the bullish example of Mercury retrograde right here. You can see quite a correction into it. I mean, that's pretty noticeable. And we were just bullish throughout. We topped on the final day of Mercury retrograde. This was when alts were going absolutely crazy in the last cycle, by the way. So, keep that in mind because I mean, alts are looking pretty sick right now. But here we have a also bullish iteration. This is a little bit more rare where we see the market pumped into it and we didn't have any correction into it at all. So, I do think this is like an outlier. All right, this is definitely an outlier. One thing to mention though is that we were in a a solar cycle during this. We're not in a solar cycle right now. Over here, we have a Mercury retrograde, which again, you can see that we're topping out about one week before correcting into it. also this like pump fake 4 to 7 days in went lower and we're sideways. That's a very typical thing. And then this one right here is the black swan event of the C19 crash. So I think this aligns a lot with like the liberation day April 7 uh April 7th bottom. Uh so I'm not entertaining this at all. I don't think we're just going to crash through this upcoming time frame. I mean, there would have to be something absolutely [ __ ] crazy that happens on the world stage. And like, I I get it. There's a lot of really awful um events happening right now with flooding, you know? I mean, our hearts go out to anyone who's being affected by this. I know there's lots of floods in Texas, lots of flooding, I believe, in North Carolina. It's it's really tragic to hear about this happening. And it's crazy because the market was also pumping crazy during the time frame of the LA fires. Um, so it's like the market maker is doing everything energetically. It's like literal sorcery, guys. Like I know it sounds crazy, but that's why you're here. You know that gamria, numerology, and astrology play a massive role in all of this. So, is it shocking that on the 117 date that we just went through, Bitcoin hit $117 for the first time ever, especially with the 63 date numerate numerology that's perfectly matching back to Bitcoin with this 3663 connection. I mean, we've seen this so many times now where these numbers, the mirror numbers, all of this pretty much perfectly tied. So remember what I was telling you in the last red pill about the 15th of July that's coming up and the connection to the 23rd I believe or the no this date right here 97 days left in the year. Remember I was just telling you about the number 97 and how it's been 97 days from the 97th day in the year. Well we also have this 72 days between these two dates. This will be officially after um Rashashana has passed. So we'll be in a new Hebrew year. And the 72 connection comes back to Bitcoin. Also comes back to money. So got that 63 in money. We were just talking about that 63 on this date right here. Number 18, the most important number in Judaism. Yeah, should say Zionism. Excuse me. Uh but yeah, anyways, there's so much to say about this, man. I do want to stay on track, but this was the final iteration that I wanted to review because these are all the important ones. I will just very quickly go through a couple of these that happened in the last cycle of 2017 because that could be something to consider. We have this Q4 bullish example we have here. Uh quite interesting because we also rose into this time frame. Not the typical correction into Mercury retrograde. We do get this sort of pump fake 4 to 7 days in followed by the correction, but overall pretty bullish and then we had a correction after. It's a little bit more rare here. A very rare example of us just bullish the entire time. But what makes it kind of understandable is it was during a Venus retrograde and we already had a 30% correction during that phase. So you can expect more corrections after you're already getting quite a wash out. And then here you have the Q4 bullish example which you got a Q4 bullish example, Q4 bullish example over here Q4. Over here Q4 and over here Q4 that kind of reveals to us that there's something to the final Mercury retrograde phase of the year.
So over here I have a little bit of a guide that I want to review with everybody so that we can take this step by step and then we could align it with what we're likely to have go down over our upcoming Mercury retrograde. So with Mercury retrograde I've identified four key phases. Make sure the mic is good and we are good. So with these four key phases, the first for us to consider would be the week before Mercury stations retrograde, which is the time frame we're in right now as I record this red pill. Then the second phase would be the first week of Mercury retrograde here. And to summarize the pattern we've identified, it's typical to see Bitcoin push up into the or actually we push up into the first week before Mercury stations retrograde which we're clearly doing right now as you can see over here. I'm just doing the examples side by side with you. So we push up into about 7 days to 4 days before Mercury retrograde. And we're doing that right now. And then Bitcoin momentarily tops out within those four to seven days before Mercury retrograde. And we temporarily correct into Mercury retrograde, which is important for us to keep in mind since, as I mentioned moments ago, we're within this phase right now. And if we pushed it all the way to 4 days before Mercury retrograde, it'll be this upcoming Tuesday, July 15th. So, let me just get back to this for you to show you, including the end date. So, that's something to keep in mind. I mean, I do believe it's including the end date over here on the Trading View chart that we've reviewed as well. So, just keep that in mind. It's if we were to push it out all the way to that time frame. This is actually a date that I decoded in last week's red pill. And this entire time frame would be during crypto week, which is July 14th, tomorrow through the 18th, literally wrapping up as Mercury is stationing retrograde. It couldn't be any more perfectly timed for this exoteric event, right? And if you didn't check out last week's red pill, definitely make sure to watch it because I thoroughly decoded this crypto week that we're moving into tomorrow.
Now, the next phase is phase two. It would be during the first actual week of Mercury retrograde. And the pattern that we've identified is about four to seven days in, we have a little bit of like a pump fake where we pump back up from that correction that happens as Mercury is initially stationing retrograde. And in many iterations, this pump up is by day 4 to day 7. and it could actually turn out to be a fake out which then leads us to dropping back down to a similar price we were trading during the correction that occurred between phases one and two as Mercury was stationing retrograde. So, I'm going to kind of draw it over here. This is just the start. So topping out 5 to 7 days before, moving down into Mercury retrograde, pivoting at the start, moving up about 4 to 7 days later, and then having this be a fake out coming back down to a similar price we were trading at as Mercury was stationing retrograde. I hope this all makes sense. I'm literally giving you like the detailed breakdown day by day. Like, it doesn't get better than this. It doesn't get more dialed in than this. And I'm not bragging. I'm just trying to show you everything we've reviewed so far and make it nice and easy for you so you actually learn about what we're talking about here. So, this is why it's actually important for us to mark off the Bitcoin price on the day Mercury retrograde begins. So on the daily close of July 18th, we'll mark where Bitcoin closes that day because it could give us some important data for where Bitcoin will be trading at potentially on August 11th when Mercury stations direct because 75% of the time we see how that goes.
Then the next phase we have, I'll simply call it the middle the middle phase which is 75% of the time sideways price action. Essentially, we just chop around sideways within a range. And this eventually leads to us being at a very similar price to where Bitcoin was trading at on the day Mercury initially stationed retrograde. And during the other 25% of the time, we actually pumped through the entire Mercury retrograde phase, which could potentially be the case this time around during our upcoming Mercury retrograde. And of course, I'll share my opinion on that in a moment. But lastly, I just want to review phase four, which would be the shadow period. It's 2 weeks after Mercury stations direct again. And during this shadow period, we also have a pattern to consider. And this time around it'll especially be important since the post Mercury retrograde shadow period will be concluding literally uh on August 25th right around the August new moon which is on August 23rd a couple days before. So I can't get into how the shadow period will go right now. We need to see how Bitcoin is trading on day one of Mercury retrograde and then track how it looks on day 4 through 7. This will give us a lot of clarity on how that shadow period could go. But for now, it's just a guessing game. There's no way to determine how this uh shadow period would go at this time. We need to take it one step at a time as well because you can see this crypto market can get hot fast. Like we just had in the course of four or five days, a lot of altcoins move up 60 to 80%. I mean, some of the top altcoins only moved up about 30% or so, but that's pretty big. So, just keep that in mind.
So, now that I've laid out that blueprint for you, let's explore what this all means for Bitcoin. And we can conclude phase one of the pre Mercury retrograde period throughout the week ahead and officially move into the phase two as Mercury stations retrograde this upcoming Friday, July 18th. So, we're just going to kind of track how this can all go for us now. And we're going to take everything we just decoded and explore the two main outcomes of how this can play out. First being what I said happens 75% of the time from uh wherever Bitcoin closes on the first day of Mercury retrograde, which we'll know very soon. we will come back to the same price or around the same price on the final day of Mercury retro Mercury retrograde meaning in plain English during Mercury retrograde 75% of the time we're sideways and the second outcome would be the other 25% of the time which is a pump through the majority of the time Mercury is retrograde and you'll see on the chart I've actually highlighted those specific iterations s in green all throughout everything we've just covered. And I've also mentioned the quarter they happened in right above them. And in those iterations where Bitcoin is actually bullish throughout Mercury retrograde, it tends to either be in Q1 or Q4. We're in Q3 right now, and I've never seen it happen in Q2 really. So another way of simplifying it would say would be by saying it's usually happening on the first Mercury retrograde of a calendar year or the last Mercury retrograde of the calendar year which might be a more uni I think we could say that would be a more universal way to explain it because I think a Australia has different fiscal quarters than the US and it could actually be the case for some other countries as well. I'm not sure. Perhaps what I just stated is not completely accurate. But regardless, simplifying things by saying the first or the last Mercury retrograde of the year tends to be bullish just makes things easier for everyone. And the ones that are happening in Q2, Q3, those are the ones that tend to be more sideways.
Now, why is this so important to bring up? Well, because we have one more Mercury retrograde coming up later this year in November. So, the one we're about to have is obviously not our first or our last Mercury retrograde of 2025. But back in August of 2017, we uh did have what might be considered a less common bullish Mercury retrograde that was also around an eclipse season and in a similar time of year to the one that we're about to have next week. They're only about a month apart. And with the way Bitcoin has been trading over the past two years, it looks way more like the 201620 2017 chart than comparing it to our last cycle in 2020 to 2021. Regarding the way Bitcoin's been trading as of lately, and I've actually been saying this all year, especially with how the XRP setup looks right now. We reviewed this in my last video. This is the 2017 breakout. Pretty much perfectly mimicking the 2017 breakout. XLM and Dogecoin also look very similar as well. So, with that being said, let's zoom in to this August 13th, 2017 Mercury retrograde and see how we traded. And one thing you'll notice is that we did not have a correction into Mercury retrograde, which is very um it's not very normal to see. Um, but maybe during the bullish iterations, it's not the strangest thing ever, especially as I mentioned earlier when we were kind of just glancing over this example. We did have a pretty major correction before that Mercury retrograde. We also had a solar eclipse around this time during a solar cycle, which is not the case for us this time around as we're in a lunar cycle right now. And we have a total lunar eclipse after Mercury retrograde and not during like we had in this example over here. We had a solar eclipse in a solar cycle during Mercury retrograde. That could be a much more different energy to consider. I I mean I believe it's the case. But what we did have happen in this iteration, which is part of the pattern that we've identified in phase two, is we made it up about four days and then we had that pump fake. You know, we had that fake out which actually followed with a pretty decent 20 19% correction. Like I don't think we'll have that in this situation this time around. That'd be pretty rough. Um, but regardless, we actually pushed higher. So, this is a very positive thing because if we were to take from the daily open on the first day of Mercury retrograde and measure it all the way to the top, we had about a 28% move. I mean, if we were to measure it all the way from the bottom during Mercury retrograde, it was over 35%. If you were to have bought that uh shakeout, which also happened around an eclipse. So, of course, we can consider this is a more bullish iteration, even though it did follow with a nasty pullback into the month of what? Say it with me, September. So, this of course aligns with my overall thesis that I've been sharing for over a year now with proof of that in my crypto decoding blueprint, which that was actually released publicly at the beginning of June in 2024. And now that we're here seeing Bitcoin hit almost 120K, it really brings all of that analysis in my crypto decoding blueprint to life. And perhaps by the time you watch this podcast, Bitcoin could have already uh hit 120K. Just such a wild thing to see in real time considering I released that project back when Bitcoin was still just kind of trading into the prior cycle all-time high from late 2021 and it was getting rejected there for months. And for many at that time, the idea of 100k Bitcoin sounded impossible. But I was confident of that being the case inside of my crypto decoding blueprint. We even talked about Bitcoin pushing higher before the March lunar eclipse that we just had and how we would get a correction between March and April of 2025 and then how Bitcoin will go higher after that correction even if we're in a lunar cycle. Look at what we're dealing with, guys. I said we would get a correction in March, April 2025, and Bitcoin will go higher than where it was trading at before that correction. and it will go higher before the September 7th total lunar eclipse. So now this is like impossible to argue the power of these crypto cycles when you're looking at the solar and lunar cycle is so like just crazy. It's it's unbelievable.
Now, I think by getting through this cycle, it's going to help me determine how all of this aligns with Bitcoin dominance and the overall altcoin market. And that'll help even more to be able to determine the energetics and make the timing of the next cycle even more dialed in. And that's always going to be harder as the cycles continue because so far the only one that's been really mimicking things every four years has been Bitcoin. It's like crazy how it's been actually quite predictable. Um, anyways, here we are. So, with that being said, now that we've explored this rare bullish iteration of Mercury retrograde in the third quarter, we could entertain that as a possibility this time around. But still, this iteration fits into our overall analysis of us going up. and it would include several of the phases we normally see in almost every iteration of Mercury retrograde. And to summarize my thoughts on this by sharing my opinion, I personally think Bitcoin will top out during this Mercury retrograde phase. And there's a high likelihood that if Bitcoin dominance doesn't break down during Mercury retrograde that we can actually see Bitcoin price carry up into the shadow period and then we could top out in mid August leading into the August new moon which to some of you just sounds like a broken record at this point. But here I am showing you yet another additional tool we have that points to us being bullish until the August new moon and no later than the next total lunar eclipse on September 7th. And why am I sharing this? Well, because Bitcoin dominance is everything when it comes to the true expansion of the altcoin. So the correction that we're getting right now or in the Bitcoin dominance and how Bitcoin is pushing up, this is a great thing to see for altcoins. But what this means is if we were to bounce right now on Bitcoin dominance and let me just show you on the chart. If we were to bounce from here and then push higher again next couple weeks, this would now give us a situation where we might not have the true end of the alt season just yet. It might be carried on into Q4, which is something that I've been entertaining lately. The same goes for Bitcoin, how we could actually get a final cycle peak for Bitcoin in October. And I I showed you it in this chart here. Remember, I drew it out for you how we can go up, maybe get to 137, 140ish by the end of August, then we correct. I mean, this would be a very dramatic correction, but believe it or not, it's about 30% or so. The same thing that we just experienced quite recently. This pullback would be very harsh, very quick, very scary. But then we would go up for like a syringe top, like a true blowoff top. And the alt season will be from now until then, it'll be ex it'll be a more extended style. And that's what happened here in our last cycle. If you look at how Bitcoin dominance broke down, it took very long time for it to fully bottom out. from topping out it took 130 days whilst over here in this cycle it was much more rapid. It took 30 days. All right. I think things extend out longer as market cap grows, as something becomes more popular. This is something you should all be aware of regardless. Who gives a [ __ ] if it takes one extra month, two extra months, three extra months? It's all about the ROI that you're able to accomplish by just being patient and keeping your eye on the prize. These indicators that we're focused on are not even that complicated. We're just adding in these esoteric elements so that we could round it all out and actually make sense of what's happening here without getting sucked into the cyclone of news and the drama and the shiny objects that are distracting people along the way.
So, I'll also be sharing next Friday likely a market update, but because we'll be getting our daily close on the first day of Mercury retrograde, this means that in next week's red pill, we can have really solid data to determine how the following phases two and three for Mercury retrograde are likely to go with a much higher level of precision since we'll have the numbers to go along with it. And that's what you guys are probably also interested in when it comes to the accuracy. Even though I don't think our community here is cares that much, you know, at the end of the day, market go up and if we get a correction in the short term, it's probably just going to be a healthy needed pullback that I brought up in my last update post. But for now, let's actually dive into these charts and review the setup into the week ahead as well as our upcoming weekly close later today. Starting with the obvious, which would be the Bitcoin weekly close. As Bitcoin sits at 118K, unless something insane happens, uh we would be closing off our weekly in price discovery with an almost 9% candle, $9,000 on the week. Absolutely wild. So, here we are, guys. This is the kind of [ __ ] we want to see into the final phases of this cycle. Now, will this be a bi-weekly? No, it won't. Okay, so we already had our bi-weekly kissing resistance, and we're just floating right now. But this weekly would be a concrete higher weekly. I mean, undeniable higher weekly close. We already went over the fact that we had the highest two-month and highest three-month ever in history. No need to talk about the monthly right now. At this time, weekly is looking very um promising that we probably have a couple more candles to push up and if there's going to be a wash out candle in the middle, it's quite normal. Bitcoin is a crypto after all and that's how crypto trades.
Now, the one thing that's very uh important to mention is this candle right here on the 10th, we just shot through all liquidity and swiped up pretty rapidly. So, that means we have a back test that's potent. I mean perhaps other analysts are talking about this as well. This is just me now going into the more like exoteric like traditional technical analysis for those people that that are interested in it. We have a potential move of a retest back at around 112 if Bitcoin is to um just kind of confirm this breakout. I mean it doesn't need to though. That's the thing about Bitcoin is it doesn't need to do that. It could just really say [ __ ] you to everybody and just keep going and going and going. Uh but we do have a clear gap right here uh sitting at around 114. And uh where Bitcoin's trading at right now is effectively the same price that Chicago Merkantile um exchange closed at on its weekly close. So when I'm looking at the 1 hour chart, if I was to dial this in a little bit more, you you can see this is a pretty big gap. And uh this is a full it's a full thousand move. And as for where we're opening, it's probably somewhere over here at about 18. I mean, who cares? Um, but that's about a 3 1/2% pullback. Now, I showed you already in the Bitcoin Mercury retrograde analysis that it is normal for us to correct into the first 48 hours or so of Mercury retrograde and then we pivot from there and move up. So, that would be the 18th through the 19th, maybe the 20th. And that would make sense, too. what that would what that would look like guys is actually a pullback for the traditional markets. Um and I'm not trying to time that also that would just make things like way too complicated but the stock market is just overvalued. Like it's way too high right now. Like the NASDAQ is already accomplished un unimaginable things given the state of our economy right now. So, this is like just fairy dust being added into a pile of nothingness and it's the whiplash of uh everything that that occurred at the start of Trump's administration kicking in. Um, no complaints, no emotion here. I'm just it is what it is, you know. So, even with the slightest bit of a pullback in the traditional markets, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to affect the crypto market that much. And as long as Bitcoin dominance continues to just fold over more and more, uh, Bitcoin coming back to fill that lower gap at at a 4% correction, it could put about a 8 or so% correction on a lot of altcoins, these top alts like ETH. I mean, look, an 8% correction would just be back testing uh 2,700, which would be all of these prior rejections, which would be beautiful. That would be a back test of our resistance right now. As for things like XLM and H bar, these things are a little bit more wonky because when they get going, they
Make these huge moves, and then you see things like, here, let me just show you. This was a 25% correction. This was also a 25% correction. Doesn't look like much, but it was the case. And let me show you where RSI was at that time. Well, it's pretty similar.
So, it's something I don't love about these projects is like when they get going, they get going, which is great if you hold them. I mean, my portfolio looks gorgeous right now, but it's it's like, yeah, and then we do from top have a 20% pullback. We go back to 20 cents, and it's just like too much drama along the way. But hey, that's that's what we signed up for here in cryptoland.
Here at the um breakout of the last cycle, you can see in the last true alt season that was a 40% correction. This was a 37% correction. This was a 43% correction. So guys, on the way up to a 1,400% move, we had one, two, three, four, 30 to 40% corrections for H bar. Like, wild, right?
So, yes. So, we're up 22% today. Um, Monday, we could even go a little bit higher. But here's the thing, man. Like, these alts, they are just going to whiplash. I already told you guys about this. When we enter a true alt season, it looks pretty, pretty crazy. So, you have to like be numb to this all. You have to be super, super neutral.
I mean, it's you're lucky to be in this community 'cause we're one of the few that even when the market's going wild and super bullish, like we're not all just throwing a party, you know? It's like pretty cool that we're chilling, you know? Anyways, um, not that you have to not, don't not celebrate if you're making lots of money here. Of course, that's great and all, but it's just cool that we don't have these like dgens in our community. And also when things are super bearish, it's not like a pity party blame festival, like just super mature and uh, it's a beautiful thing that we have going on.
But anyways, getting back to Bitcoin. Um, I don't want to spend too much time on the fractals. We already went over this WOFF analysis. And if we were to have one more shakeout on the LPS, you can see over here when we have this move where we break above the resistance, which could be what we're doing right now, then we have a backtest of the resistance to confirm it as a new support and then we keep going. So that could be the play. And if we were to, that would be the backtest of around 112. Again, I don't think I'm alone in sharing this, and I'm not calling for this. I'm just letting you know this is the kind of stuff we can do. And we already have that lower CME gap. Of course, it would just be like an additional 1 to 2% move down from where we're at right now. Nothing too crazy.
All right. Um, so generally I'm still sticking to my overall upside target for Bitcoin, which is around 135 to 145K. That like 10K zone of 135 to 145 is really nice because the inverse head and shoulders pattern that we have right here, left shoulder, head, right shoulder. And then also, if you want to entertain the local bull flag, which is this right here, they both measure out to about 140. So, I'll just keep it super simple. And that doesn't give us too much more room to go then for Bitcoin to get 140 on the nose, that would be about 18 more%.
And um, you know what's funny about Bitcoin is it tops out during the month or not doesn't top out, it's that August is the only neutral month we have. And obviously September is the the main red month. But fascinating that August could be neutral. Meaning that if we were to make it up to like let's just say closing off the month at like 125, we can go up into the first couple weeks of August to 141 and then literally come back all the way down to like 120, uh, and then close the month down 2%. And then September just roll over, you know, 5% or something like that, you know, like that's literally how it can go. Um, from there, an additional 5% would be like 114 on the average. So, if it's going to go the way that I think it's likely to go, which is a much more dramatic pullback, it would be um sensible that August doesn't actually close off bullish for for Bitcoin. It's just in the month it's bullish. And I'll explore that more in the next uh couple red pills 'cause I I think we're doing pretty well on time here and I want to focus on our altcoins.
So, Bitcoin looking good. Um, ETH kind of back at the $3,000 level, I guess. Nice to see. We're back above this main resistance line, which definitely kind of makes me feel a little better about things. When ETH breaks into price discovery, if it's similar to the last cycle, then it's going to be really absolutely crazy for altcoins.
Um, for the most part, I think what we're seeing that's different this time around, which makes what our community is doing so legendary, is like I think the ISOs are going to have the run this year, as opposed to last cycle it was all about Solana and uh Terra Luna and even ETH and the ERC20s because of all the things that were going on with NFTs. I think this cycle is all about the ISO 222, not even about the ISO 222 projects, but just the ones that are all a part of that conversation. So, XRP, XLM, Zinfen, or uh, is it called XDC Network now, and or X? Yeah, let me show you real quick so you all know what I'm talking about. So, this project here, XDC Network, I believe it's called. So, this one's going to do very well. IOTA, Algorand, probably going to do really well. Um, I haven't looked into XCN. Um, I know that gets brought up, even though I'm not sure that's actually ISO certified.
Anyways, let's finish off with uh just a couple couple thoughts on ETH. ETH back above this level, hitting the 702 fib in the macro. This is pretty important because it's at a major junction point. We've had a whipsawing event where we had an extremely oversold to an extremely overbought back to an oversold RSI on ETH. That's like a whole reset, and everything has gotten liquidated in all directions. That's good to see. So, everybody's shaken out of ETH now. The new world order has bought it all, you know, and they're just playing with everyone.
As for upside potential, we're looking at a retest of all-time highs is still 60% away. So, we're still technically early because when this broke out of price discovery in the last cycle, it went up an additional 230%. So, if we were to only do half of that, which would be about 115% from where we are, that would still be like hitting a $10,000 ETH. Now, where are we at today? We're at 2,000. Let's call it 3,000. And a $10,000 ETH would be a 240% move. Now, that's not too fun for crypto people. We're used to like 1,000% or 700%, but just know that if ETH moves up from here up to 10K, that's going to put every alt you have up much, much, much higher than where they're at right now. So, this means we're just at the early days of this breakout.
Now, I've already made a video covering this chart for XRP. I don't want to meme this this chart to hell. Um, it's looking good. It's looking good. If I was to reset this and just zoom in, it's looking good. Okay, let it play out. Does it have to be perfect? Are we going to hit $15 in the month of July like this fractal says? Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. Will you take profits then? That's what matters. So, let's let this play out.
By the end of the month, we could look a lot different than the way we look now. We have a week to get through where XRP will probably be brought up many times, especially with the talk of this clarity act and the fact that it's already been deemed not a security. So, it will be put in the spotlight. And since you're most of you are already XRP holders, enjoy the ride. When we break out of 330, 340 and we close a daily candle above 4, we can sharply move to $8. And then from there, just breaking the psychological level of 10 can quickly move us into 14 to 15. This is all things that could happen in the matter of a single week. So, you need to let this play out. And my overall target for this all to be complete is by the August new moon. So, we still have at least a month from now. Don't get too hyperfocused on some fractal uh shared in a tweet.
Okay, now we're heading over to a project I've never looked at before. It is called Metal Blockchain. Let's zoom out. Ooh. Okay. All right. So, we have data going all the way back to 2022. It's a couple of years. What happened here, though? Is this a single day? This can't be accurate. There's no way this could be accurate. This was a single daily candle that went up 30,000%. Okay, that that's probably not a real thing, but let's just look at where we're at with some of our horizontal lines. That's always important to do in our analysis. We're just going to map out some of the key levels. Okay, looking good, man. 500% up from the absolute lows which came in about Q4 of last year. And since lately, we've actually broken out um of a horizontal trading range that it was getting rejected in going all the way back almost a thousand days ago. So, this was a very bullish breakout to see. Goes to show what happens when Bitcoin dominance breaks down a little bit. So, we're just going to try. I mean, yeah, this this could be a very true breakout. It's good to see.
I'm going to pull a fib real quick to see if we've already hit the short-term 1618. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. You see that? We hit it. And a big rejection from there happening today. That's like I'm worried. I'm a little like it is exactly 97 days from our ultimate bottom that we just had. Everything crashing on the 97th day of the year. It's just really sketchy, you know? Like it's really sketchy. Look, that was this yearly bottom, April 7th. And look at this high of 33 cents. And today is the 137th date. Written internationally, you would call this 137. 137 is the 33rd prime number. And Metal Blockchain hits 33 cents today. Like for the first time since November 2022. Like, what the man?
All righty. Simulation confirmed. I don't know what's going on with the old chart history here. It's a little confusing for me, but needless to say, we do have liquidity, I suppose, all the way up to about 75, maybe 80. Uh, I don't know about a full dollar, but this shows that this one's traded at a dollar. So, if we were to throw some horizontal trading um levels over there, I mean, I could maybe entertain. This is really tough 'cause the chart is all over the place with these really weird candles. But sure, why not? Let's quickly just pull a fib from this level. It's the best we can do right now. Yeah, I have a hard time imagining a $4. Okay, maybe 280. Maybe. Maybe maybe big move, an additional 1,000% from where we're at right now. It's possible, man. It is possible, guys. So, where is our? Yeah. And this five spot extension is somewhere around the 70 target as well. So, that makes me pretty confident we'll hit 70 uh pretty soon. Actually, that'd probably be complete by the very early August time frame. And then as for this higher level, it's just determining how everything goes for the overall alts with Bitcoin dominance breaking down. And I mean, Bitcoin is trading at 119K right now on a Sunday on a weekend. That's kind of awkward how bullish everything is on a weekend. I don't trust it usually, but typically what happens on these days where we have a very bullish Sunday is we will go even higher into a Monday and then correct pretty hard into a Tuesday. So, this is a pretty fascinating chart and it's recently broken out. So, um, there's not much volume to fight against ahead. Like clear skies ahead um to to a dollar 'cause I mean, it's been there before apparently and what do we have like two weeks of trading there. Here we have like almost two or three weeks of trading above 40 cents. Like I mean, this is nothing after it's already dealt with all of this like 900 days of building all of this um trading range between 5 cents to about 15 cents. So, there was really nothing between this 15 cent level all the way up to 67, 70. So, we're like just in price discovery effectively. Very good play, I think, for those who already got in.
As for right now though, just be cautious because again, we're moving into Mercury retrograde. We could have a little bit of [ __ ] next week and you just don't want to be caught off guard and and think about it like a 20% correction during this time is not weird after something's already gone up so much. And I think ultimately that'd be healthy for this thing to even maybe potentially backtest like around 18 or 19 cents, which is this um rejection over here. We didn't really do that. We just shot straight through it. So, you can see all of these rejections over here and and that wouldn't be weird for us to come back to like 17 cents or so and then shoot up now chase that 65 liquidity.
All right, we have Jupiter project that I don't think I've spoke about in some time. Oh, okay. So, we filled out the lower end of this launch launch zone. So, we had this launch last year at the beginning in February 2024. It went straight from, you know, whatever initial price pretty much all the way up till about a 180 in only the first couple months. And since it's dropped heavy, let me delete these drawings. Since it's dropped pretty heavy, we're looking at a full correction of about 83%, which is very typical for altcoins. Actually, we've even had some top altcoins correct 70% recently, you know. So, this is just what it is. The one thing that's a little ugly to see is this right here where you had this as your main support and then when you broke below it, you get rejected coming back to it. That's not good. But what this could become is a W pattern, a bullish breakout where this is your neckline. It's likely how this is going to go. And we have a couple things to point out, which would be this higher low on the second V of the W. That's good to see. Your neckline sitting here around this 382, which is around 60. That's good to see, too. So, kind of like this backtest of the neckline and then break out and quickly get back up to the $184 level. So, that's the play there that I see. Even though a majority of your trading range is built between this 60 to $120 uh zone, just consider that we've already dealt with that. This was a time to fill all of this below and it's been accomplished here. That's actually a good thing 'cause it's all speculative anyways, right? So, in the event that we do push into price discovery, what this means is this will be a very solid floor. This is not a solid floor. It's just pump straight through. Try to hold. Can't. This is your chance to confirm bottoms. But you get rejected here again. And then that's where it becomes trouble. So, this is the less likely outcome unless this just becomes a sham.
Uh, I've held off on investing in this since I first I think dabbled with it and I'm not going to uh anymore. I don't really feel like this is an opportunity. It's still just venture capital to me, but I can entertain these upside targets still. Uh, maybe five on the extremes, on the extremes, you know, and we have to be open to extremes in an alt season. So, more conservative would be somewhere between three to four range. And from where we're trading at right now, that would actually be um a typical move about 500 to 600%. I'm not able to share too much more analysis on this though because it's a very limited chart history. I've showed you the correction here could become an M pattern and fill out even lower lows. It's definitely possible as this is still in price discovery or the likely play given that there's an incoming alt season would be a W, a bullish W breakout which if you want me to quickly measure for you, you can just do a simple uh fib simple pull here from swing high of this neckline. It's okay to do it all the way to the end of the wicks or the tails when it's an altcoin. It's very normal. And this shows you that we'd just be coming back to the 8-day fib. And and honestly, that might be how this goes for the first phase where we only make it up to there before the September eclipse. We have this correction here and then we go up one more time and then it's concluded a little bit later in the season. We've also seen this happen in the past with some projects um that made it through the lunar cycle without too much damage. On the other hand, we've seen a lunar cycle cause an insane amount of damage for certain projects like FTX or Terra Luna. So, not everything has the same uh connections, even though, funny enough, Jupiter is um the like the the name of the mythological deity Jupiter or Zeus, right?
So, all right, Virtuals Protocol. This is one everyone's been wanting me to look at. Um, here we are. Let's see what we got here. So, we have some chart, same amount of chart history, but very clearly different um in its results. Holy moly. 5,000% from this support low on um pivoting in Q4 2024. Amazing. I mean, if you took profits on the absolute peak, this is 14,000%. Wow. Uh, it's also since had a 90% correction, so I would feel very confident making this fib pull here. Obviously, we're going to double click. We're going Nope. We're going to turn this setting on. And now we'll see we've made it up to the 702 rejection. Okay. So, we want to hold this 0.5 fib and we want to make it back above this golden pocket sooner than later because the typical thing we see when you get rejected at the 702 is you come back to the 236. I don't think that's the case right now though. But rapid recovery straight to the 702 with holding the 0.5 is actually very bullish. I think maybe Matic did this in the last cycle. So, but then it also finished its cycle early than everything else. So, that's another thing to keep in mind. But, wow, 14,000% already means it's done quite a bit and you can't be asking for much more on the upside. Uh, but everyone's greedy, so everyone wants to know, right? I mean, in this logarithmic pull, this is an additional 1,200%. I'm not too sold on that being a possibility. Um, I suspect it would push its market cap pretty damn high in that in that event. And this $8 uh level seems a lot more likely. 20, I don't know. I really don't. It's hard for me to entertain 20. Hard for me to entertain 20. But that's on the upper end of the range. So, we have 20 on the upper end. It's possible. Let me mark it off. I'm going to mark 19 and then we'll mark 24 just quickly. We got the 26 though. We got the reverse 23. The 221 236 two uh 236. There's a couple ways to interpret this. 26 in Calaldian though. I don't know. It's very extreme. This gives an upper range. It'd be amazing if it go push push this much higher because it's not like a suppressed project like it's already done a bull, it's already done an alt season, you know, like it's already done this whole move. So, congrats if you were in this at the start. Like, I mean, it's up a tremendous amount. When it launched, it also already had a washout and it traded kind of in this wonky, you know, disbelief kind of phase like meme coins do this a lot where like I'm not calling this a meme coin, but meme coins do this where they like launch and then they have this washout and then it just looks like absolute dog [ __ ] and then out of nowhere they have a really crazy impulse and then people start piling in and then that you have to deal with a much larger 90% correction and then it never goes back up again, it just kind of chops. It already had its euphoria phase. So, I would be cautious with this one is what I'm saying because even though I shared these much higher price targets, it doesn't necessarily mean that they need to happen. And this has already had a crazy run. So, expecting more out of it, I just think isn't as sophisticated as looking at something like maybe XRP or Doge or XLM, HAR, like these projects that still have a lot more upside potential. um and you're not buying them in price discovery at the top, you know.
All right, let's go over to Casinocoin. There might be a couple that are just some quick thoughts. Okay, first of all, this pro Oh god. Okay, this project is down 11% today while everything is up. So, uh, what is this? Okay. Yeah. Oh, no. Okay, I'm just gonna skip it. Don't invest in something that looks like this, okay? Like, it's been perpetually in price discovery to the downside. It has chart history going back to 2022, so it's not like this is news. Um, this type of price action is also very annoying to deal with. Like spike up of 400%, then it loses 80% of its value, then another spike up 200%, then it loses another, you know, two 70% corrections in a row and then followed by an 80% correction and then another 90% correction and it's just been going lower and lower and lower. You were better off buying Bitcoin, right? So, don't touch this stuff. Shitcoin 110%. I know this triggers people. Some people are going to be like, "Water is like, you don't know about the connections and the pro and the CEO of the company and who gives a [ __ ] Look at this chart, dude. This is the This is it. This is an absolute distraction." So, I I when we get a lot of votes on stuff, it's good for me to cover it, even if it's very quickly. I did have a backup plan of a couple things I could check out just in 'cause I I did remember seeing this one kind of in the list and I I knew it would be important to just share some thoughts because like dude, what is this? It's more of an avoid uh conversation and I hope it helps to get people like when you're learning charts and like learning how to understand the charts when you see things like this on a logarithmic chart, it's a really, really uh dangerous and like this is on a linear chart horrifying.
Okay, so let's move on. We have a very quick check-in on Pulse. Um, this is Hex on Wrapped Pulse. So, we always get like some confusion here when we're talking about this project because it was on Ethereum and now it's not. Now it's all like on the Pulse chain and and then even that like people want me to look at different versions of it and it's like it doesn't matter. The it's all the same chart. Okay, so I haven't looked at this in quite a long time. But what I did have, and I just adjusted it now for the first time, and all I did was move it over, was I had a fib pulled from this level right here up to the current um let's call it the current high. And you have the 1618 sitting at pretty much where we've been stabilizing. And it is barely touching it. So, this has also been a really bad play to be in. Um, again, no offense. I'm not trying to hurt anyone's feelings. This isn't me talking [ __ ] about the Hex community. It's just it is what it is. This is the price of this project back when it started. Day one. This is day one. It's at the same price today, 800 days later. Um, all it did was chop and get rejected one, two, three, four, maybe call it five times and it couldn't break out and go further. Um, whilst a lot of other things are enjoying very bullish price action at at the current moment, this project is down 6.4%. Um, and off of the April 7 lows, it's up 25%. Most things are up dramatically higher from I mean Bitcoin is for example, just so you understand from April uh 74K lows up till today, Bitcoin is up 58%. So, you just kind of wasted a lot of time and energy on this on this play um hoping for the best and hoping that it would have a cycle like it did in the last um in its last cycle. And I've always spoken against that for Hex because the whole cycle that it had initially was riding on a lot of what the creator was doing, Richard Heart. It it had a lot to do with him live streaming. It had a lot to do with his reputation. It had a lot to do with the way he carried himself. And perhaps those things are all good and dandy today. I'm not sure. I don't keep up with it. But when your whole price behavior is kind of predicated on the way that the creator moves and uh behaves, then you have to rely on that. And what that also means is when it doesn't go so well and when there's controversy and negative things that are occurring. I mean, I believe the SEC even dropped the uh lawsuit with um with Richard Heart and Hex, correct? Didn't they like move on from that already? Like way quicker than they did with the Ripple situation. And yet, look at the price. Remember, I was always telling people, don't care about the Ripple SEC case at all when it comes to the price. It's the same thing I was telling the Hex people. Don't care about it because whether it's good or bad for you in the exoteric perspective, it won't matter what the price. The price is just speculation in the community and the people that are throwing their money into it. So, it's just speculation.
Why is Bitcoin 119K? Well, because a lot of people on this planet believe in its value. Does that mean it's actually valuable? Who can determine that? Study the tulip bubble. There was a time where salt was a thing worth fighting wars over. Now we have clean water coming out of our toilet bowl that you could drink. Okay? So, value just adjusts and changes. And we're at peak civilization right now, you know. Anyways, I don't want this to be like a philosophical like a philosophy class, but all in all, this chart doesn't look so great. I would suggest avoiding this investment. Um, no offense to the Hex community or anyone in it, but this is a a bummer, right? And uh I'm glad that I stuck to the ISO projects and uh even Doge, funny enough. But um as for a majority of my investment thesis, it's always been centered around heavy Bitcoin, heavy XRP. I've moved on from ETH. I'm glad that I did. And now I've diversified effectively uh heavily much more into the other ISO projects and things are sitting pretty. This whole Hex ecosystem, I don't think matters at all. Uh it's just a belief thing and the community behind it, I think, has been experiencing an exodus for maybe two years now, mostly because of the way the price of the project is moving.
Last but I guess not least, we have something that I want to touch on really quickly because I'm not sure what I've shared on this project, Aerodrone, in regards to my opinion 'cause you know I try to share my technical outlook. I also try to share my opinion on charts. This clearly had a breakout phase. It went through this very arduous parallel channel that had effectively like a 90% correction which bottomed on April 7th. And since we've had a nice rebound into a technical level, the 0.5 fib, we're holding this rising trend line. I think this might be a excuse me, this might be a VC opportunity for me. So, I might actually make an investment in Aerodrone. I've heard of there being some connections over with Coinbase. I think Coinbase is going to be a lot bigger than maybe some of us could imagine. So, I'm just taking a little bit of a bet with my venture capital portfolio. It's nothing big, nothing crazy. This chart does not look awful. I see there being um a breakout to come. So, as for the upside targets, I can't get too deep into the nitty-gritty of it. When I want to make an investment for myself, of course, I do a little bit more intricate investment. um strategy exit strategy protocols like doing gamatria and some decoding but just generally, I mean up to the 1618 on the macro is looking at about $8 and that is like a 900% move. So, in a typical alt season, that is not weird. Also, from this launch up to where we are right now has been a 25,500% move on the current local top. And that is not as extreme as the example I was showing you earlier with um what was it? Virtuals. Like this is 14 or 15,000%. To me, that is not much ju not much more juice left in the fruit. So, I do feel a little bit more confident banking on something that's had this major impulse, but it's only been about 2,000% to the upside. It's had a nice washout a couple times. What's seemingly like a double top could easily become a triple top and a massive macro W pattern that has a breakout, let's call it two above the $5 level approaching 7 to 8 on the upper end. So, I don't want to get too too deep into the investment thesis, even though I shared some of my thoughts, but I think this might be a play for me. Um, I'll share with you guys soon whether I'm going to take a bite or not. Please do not just copy me and get this project and invest in it for no reason. Um, I'm just sharing something that I might throw, you know, a couple hundred bucks in. It's not going to be a huge investment. I'm not really um I don't really care to invest too much more into this market because I've been investing in it for years now and I've already pretty much packed my bags.
So, we'll see how these next couple of days shake out with this upcoming Mercury retrograde. You've gotten a very thorough analysis on everything. I do believe there'll be a pretty notable um CME gap coming in later today. So, don't be shocked if we get that filled out before um or by the end of next week. It would make a lot of sense considering Mercury retrograde is on Friday. And it's very typical that we correct into Mercury retrograde. And given that Bitcoin could have a 5% or so correction from here, that could at least be a 10% correction for most alts. Um, for the more extreme situations like with H bar, we could have maybe like a minimum 15%, I mean maybe 20% or so percent. I'm not calling for that. I'm just letting you know depending on how Bitcoin behaves in the immediate short term and how overextended alts have gotten so quickly into this weekend. Don't be shocked by this because this is pretty typical altcoin price action. Just like we had a couple 20% corrections over here, boom, boom. And we had even I showed you over here multiple 40% corrections on the way to the top.
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