Transcription
All right, y'all. So, it's all beginning to catch up with the Republicans. Um, we have some new polling numbers that just came in and it is an absolute bloodbath. It is an absolute disaster for them. Um, they're they're falling apart. And the reason they're falling apart is that, you know, Trump's economy is hitting a wall and cracks in the foundation are beginning to show. Unemployment's going up. Uh prices going up. We also see shrinkflation. At the same time, we see manufacturing jobs going away. Everything negative you can imagine is happening.
Here's what that's led to. This is from Harry Anton over at CNN. "You know, we're talking about warning signs for the Republican party. And I will just say uh-oh for them. That is the phrase of the day. Uh-oh. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot. And you can see their lead is expanding. It's becoming bigger. Look at this. In spring CNBC, it was two. Now it's five. How about Ipsos? It was one for the Democrats. Now it's four. How about the Wall Street Journal? It was one. And now it is three. So now the average lead here is four, which is up from just about a point. That's about a three-point move on average in the Democrats' direction. And of course, Kate Paul, when this is coming amidst the fights over redistricting, I think there going to be a lot of people wondering, wait a minute, are Republicans wanting to change the lines because they are losing, which they absolutely are on the generic congressional ballot. At this point, Democrats are winning, Republicans are losing, and maybe they're trying to change the lines in order to give themselves a little bit more wiggle room given what we're seeing, a clear Democratic momentum on the generic congressional ballot."
"How does it break down with on when you look at party ID?"
"Okay, so this is one metric, right? The generic congressional ballot. How about party identification, right? Because the idea is if you're a Democrat, you're very likely to vote Democrat. If you're a Republican, you're very likely to vote Republican. Take a look here. The party ID margin, Democrats versus Republicans. Look in quarter one of this year, Quinnipiac. Republicans had a lead of a point. Gallup, it was tied. Look at where we are now in the latest measures. Again, Democratic momentum. This is a five-point move to the Democrats according to Quinnipiac. Now, they're up by four on party ID. How about Gallup? What we see is Democrats ahead, ahead by three points. So again, what you're seeing is clear movement towards the Democratic party on a very key metric because if you're identifying as Democratic, you're far more likely to vote for the Democrat. You're identifying as Republican, you're far more likely to vote Republican. And I will note Kate that this is a change from last year, especially among Gallup, when Republicans had a held a rare lead going into the 2024 election and that of course foreshadowed Donald Trump winning, foreshadowed Republicans taking the House, taking the Senate, and now of course Democrats are ahead here. This is a big uh-oh for Republicans as we are at the midpoint of 2025."
"But you're also you see some signs as well even beyond polling that you've been looking at you think indicate."
"Yeah. Okay. So this is the polling, right? You're looking at party ID. You're looking at the generic congressional. How about the special elections? Look at this. In the median 2025 special election so far, Democrats in these different districts, get this, they're doing about 13 points better, the median Democrat, than Kamala Harris did in those same districts last year. That is a huge, huge movement. And last year, what we saw was, in fact, when you compare the 2024 special election results back to the Joe Biden baseline of 2020, Republicans were actually doing better than they did in 2020 in those. So again, this is clear movement towards the Democrats and we're seeing on three different metrics. Two polling and one in actual election results."
"So is it going to matter? That's my question. Is this gonna matter? Because I don't know. I mean, we're looking in real time right now at uh the attempt to gerrymander away all the seats that the Democrats can pick up. That's what Texas is doing and California is trying to fight back. New York's trying to fight back. But the Democrats are behind the eight-ball on that because they have laws about independent redistricting efforts in a lot of the blue states. And so, first the Democrats would have to repeal those laws and then try to counter the gerrymandering by doing gerrymandering of their own. So, because the Democrats care about fair play, they actually sort of [ __ ] themselves a little bit when it comes to the midterms because it looks like Texas and Florida are going full steam ahead trying to [ __ ] rig it and pick up Republican seats knowing that the polls are not looking good for them right now for the midterms. So, you got that going on. You got Trump signing executive orders about the election. Originally, he tried to hand over the election process to [ __ ] Elon Musk and federalize the process. I've never seen clear attempts to rig the [ __ ]. He tried to steal the 2020 election. Now he's testing out deploying the National Guard and deploying the US military in our streets for no reason whatsoever. What the [ __ ] do you think he's going to do around the election, if he's doing this right now during peacetime? I mean, is this going to matter? Because I'll tell you what, if um if we do have a free and fair election, oh my god, it's all finally catching up to him. Guys, Donald Trump killed an increase in overtime pay for millions of people. You think they like that? You think people like that? You think uh the federal contractors and employees when Biden gave them a $15 minimum wage, you think they like it that Trump came in and he took that away and he got rid of that for federal contractors? Do you think it's it helps Trump that he opposes the PRO Act and opposes minimum wage increases? Uh that he destroyed the NLRB with his anti-union thug picks, that he destroyed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. That he outsourced 200,000 jobs, killed 115,000 factory jobs in his second term. I mean, the the the trade war alone making the whole world turn on us. Prices going up, unemployment's going up. Like, all that all that is an absolute disaster. Trump cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. I mean, this is what we're talking about with the big [ __ ] bill. 2.3 million people lost healthcare in Trump's first term because of his policies. So, is this [ __ ] actually going to finally [ __ ] catch up to him? And I like to think the answer is yes. I like to think the answer is yes. I don't know, but um they're doing everything they can to try to rig it up front. But if we have a free and fair election, and God help the Republicans, if the Democrats learn to even fight 15% as hard as they need to fight, oh my god, they'd be so cooked. The Republicans would be so cooked because uh this is the Democrats are now surging in the polls. And this is without them even doing anything. No Democrat is leading the charge. No Democrat is making any argument. You know, no Democrat is front and center saying all the right things. This is literally just purely uh out of spite and hatred from the public that Republicans are going down and Democrats are going up. Could you imagine a functioning Democratic party that hammers Trump on the Epstein stuff, that points out that Epstein was best friends with Trump for a decade? That the first time Trump and Melania had sex was on the Lolita Express, which is Jeffrey Epstein's pedophile plane? Could you imagine a Democratic party that points out that Epstein knew the inner workings of Trump's first White House, his first term? That points out that uh Trump and Epstein shared a girlfriend. That's real. That sounds fake. It's not. They shared a girlfriend. Trump wrote a creepy love letter to Epstein on his birthday and said, "You and I share a lot of similarities, Jeff, don't we?" Trump offered Epstein a job in his first term in the White House. I'm not kidding. This was just reported by the Telegraph talking to Epstein's butler. He's the guy who added this. Epstein learned human trafficking from Trump's teenage modeling agency. If you had a Democratic party that could focus on these things, fight on these things while also fighting on Trump's warmongering with Iran and Yemen and Somalia and fight him on his concentration camps and alligator Awitz and his [ __ ] horrible economic policies which are leading to unemployment going up and prices going up at the same time. Stagflation. If you had a Democratic party that could also fight, we'd be looking at prime FDR-like numbers for the Democrats, not only in the midterms, but in the 2028 election. That's what we would be looking at for sure. But instead, Democrats are running in hiding. And even given that Republican numbers are still cratering because of just how disgusting they are. And don't get it twisted, man. A lot of this also has to do with that big [ __ ] bill which really just tore this country in half. Destroyed it. 17 million people losing their healthcare. I mean, that's not something you just recover from. That's not that's something that is, you know, generational type damage. And the fallout is just beginning.
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