Transcription
The indices are literally flying before the FOMC. For me, that can be a pretty significant risk. We'll talk about it today as well. We'll do a check on the dollar and gold, obviously. Just before we start, I remind you, you have the opportunity to train for free with us. You will have access to the training which is my mentorship, but also access to the VIP on Discord. All of that for free. To join us, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All the notifications concerning my content, they bring you back to this page. You just have to click right here on join my free Forex and index trading coaching. This opens this form, you scroll down a bit, you register on Prime XBT via our partner link, it's our partner broker that allows you to trade Forex, indices, commodities with crypto collateral. So we can, for example, engage a position on the NASDAQ but with Bitcoin. What's interesting is what I generally do. You just have to register, make a deposit of at least 200 dollars on the platform in crypto or by bank card, that's your trading capital. You can withdraw your funds whenever you want. You fill in your email, your Premix BT ID. It's located at the top right on the platform, there's a small profile logo. You copy your ID, you paste it into the form, you fill in your Discord username, you check I have made a deposit, get my access and within 24 hours, you will receive access to the complete mentorship and also your access to the VIP index Forex. This is where we exchange, share our analyses, etc., etc.
So, to come back to the NASDAQ, we are literally flying on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, bullish before the FOMC. We might be anticipating a end of QT very soon, even imminent. We'll see what Powell says. I have the impression that the market is projecting too much, personally. We are still leaving behind our New Week Open Gap. We still have a momentum that is quite strong. I was just talking about it, but when people wait for the New Week Open Gap to position themselves, very often the market goes against this New Week Open Gap. And so, we had just come to take the Sell Side after the midnight price yesterday which launched our rally on the London open. Now, it's 4 am. Now, as long as New York doesn't change its time zone, they will change their time zone on Sunday. So after, we will go back to the classic times. But well, now the London open is 4 am New York time. And that's what makes it so that on the London zone, we came to take precisely the sell side of the day to launch the bullish rally of the day. And since then, well, the momentum is completely bullish, the dynamic is bullish. We see that we respect the bullish fair value gaps. Here, we also see that we are taking the hourly lows in FVG zones to continue. But I think we need to start asking questions about this rally, personally, since we are exploding before the FOMC, before a potential agreement between China and the United States. So in my opinion, we need to be a little careful. Now, the state delivery remains bullish. We are reaching extension zones of the previous correction between 161.8% and 200%. Generally, the price can consolidate a bit here. Now, well, there's nothing very dramatic for now. I mean, the price remains bullish. Just here, we could locate the previous daily low and its FVG zone. So, in fact, Monday's candle, see the New Week Open Gap. At some point, I think we will reprice this zone, maybe even rework the breaker block. But well, I think what the index market is doing here is quite dangerous because ultimately, if Powell today does not announce any end to QT at all, or even says it won't happen for several months, then the market that is projecting a quick end to QT could get a cold shower. So in my opinion, that's what we'll need to observe. Now, there's always the possibility of intraday trading. That's not a problem. But I think we'll end up coming back to fill this gap here. I personally maintain my bullish bias on the indices as long as the VIX hasn't reached its 2024 low. We're not there yet here. So we still have room, in my opinion, knowing that the breaker has formed. DIPS are buying opportunities to continue going higher. And also, I'm closely monitoring the Rall Future which is consolidating around its 2024 high, but which theoretically, if it doesn't reverse here, could go to seek its 2021 high. And then perhaps after that, we could start a bit deeper corrections on the indices. Likewise, my long-term bias remains bullish. I remind you that when we look at the annual chart and really take a huge step back, the year 2025 came to purge the 2024 low. For me, the price will not come back, will not come back again, sorry, below the 2025 low outside of a bear market. That is to say, if there is no recession, crisis, or anything else, I think the maximum dip we will be offered in 2026 will be the discount zone of the year 2025. So we take the entire 2025 rally, we put our discount zone and broadly speaking for long-term investors, personally, I want to add personal cash to US indices, but here it doesn't interest me. The only zone that interests me is the discount zone of this entire movement. I know it's low, but in my opinion, the market will eventually come back there. Anyway, we see that there are always corrections at some point. I don't know if we'll come back there, but in any case, if we do, personally, I'll be a buyer in this zone and more specifically in this FVG. So between 21600 points and 20400 points to then play a future expansion. And the idea will be to take profits progressively on the way up above the high. I'm talking more about swing trading right now, or even investing, because I find that the current market conditions are oriented towards big, big momentum. So there are really interesting intraday opportunities. But unfortunately, I don't have the time anymore. I'm trying to find time to do intraday trading, but I'm so busy with many projects right now that it takes me almost all my time, and I no longer have time to do intraday trading. And so, well, I'm adjusting my trading, and I no longer have time to do swing trading or even investing. And well, for me, doing swing trading is impossible. For example, repricing this Breaker and this FVG would allow me to enter swing trades. But otherwise, apart from that, I don't have much to do. Personally, for the S&P 500, it's exactly the same. Anyway, it continues to go north. We came to take yesterday's high almost. I think it was taken. Yes, yes, almost. There's a niqual high maybe. Yes, there's a niqual high. So, we know we'll come back to it during the day. And it's exactly the same as the Nasdaq. I mean, as long as the VIX hasn't reached its lows, I maintain my bullish bias. The price bias is bullish at some point, let's say that this FVG zone, New Week Open Gap, the breaker would be a very good retest zone to continue going higher. But here, personally, I have nothing to do. After that, there's intraday trading, of course, there are things to do, repricing of fair value gaps, stress moves on US open, that's the specialty. If you have a bullish bias and from 9:30 am the price drops sharply south. There are reasons to think that there's a way to find a long. Personally, that's how I think. So here, for example, on yesterday's session, we see more than, well, at 9:30 am there was boom, the big bearish drop here. Personally, I think I would have waited for this sell side. After, maybe this sell side could have worked too, depending on what the price formed on the hourly. Yeah, personally, no, honestly, I would have waited for the London Low. So, so yeah, I wouldn't have had a trade yesterday on the S&P 500, for example. After the Nasdaq, I didn't observe what the price did yesterday, but well. After, it's my personal bias, well, my bias is my trading conditions right now which are more swing or even investing. But well, for me, the price remains bullish here, there's no problem. I'm just a little wary of the New Week Open Gap. Especially going up on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday before the FOMC. Well, sellers are out. Buyers all have their stops below Monday's low. So theoretically, it's a zone we could come back and price if Powell doesn't announce the end of QT, which seems to me to be priced in here. In any case, I remember that every strong bullish push or strong bearish push before the FOMC are often traps. After, we'll see if that's the case or not. It's also possible that there are insiders who know that Powell will announce something very bullish at the FOMC and therefore insiders are buying everything they can.
Regarding the dollar, the dollar which is precisely, well, continuing to approach its preview, squatting the highs. For me, that remains the objective to trigger. Now, we are working this last FVG zone. If we pass it, it can be positive to deliver the price to squat the highs. And I think we'll be fixed again, for example, if we get rejected. Well, in my opinion, we'll have a rather bearish end of the year for the dollar. Which, I think, at the beginning of 2026, will come to purge the year's low. You have to understand that as soon as we pass January 1, 2026, it will become the 2025 low. And I'm sorry again, I repeat it, despite it being against the general bias, I see no one being bullish on the dollar, and that reassures me that the dollar is bottoming out, in my opinion. But when I see the taking of the 2023 low, and if, if in 2026 we come back to take the 2025 low, I really think it will be the last phase of manipulation before the formation of a bottom. And personally, I repeat it again, as long as the dollar maintains this bullish fair value gap, I think we will seek the 2022 high, or perhaps even completely break out of the 2001 high. I clearly don't think the euro will outperform the dollar in the long term. After, there are a lot of doubts about the debt, etc. I don't think the United States will go bankrupt. And I think the economic situation will always be better in the United States than in Europe. I think Europe is weakening day by day, and I don't see why there would be a switch of currency between Europe, well, between the euro and the dollar. So that's why I maintain from a technical point of view, for me, there is no reason to be bearish long term unless we lose this FVG. Yes, it's clear that if we lose the annual FVG, it means the thesis will be a dollar that falls due to fears about its debt, probably, and a euro that strengthens, and other currencies perhaps Swiss franc, pound sterling, etc. But well, for me, as long as this FVG is maintained, I maintain, I'm talking very long term. Again, I'm talking long term. That's why for this quarter, since there was no liquidity grab, I don't necessarily have a clear bias and I could literally expect this. But I really think that if in 2026 we come to recover the 2025 low, then we'll have to expect, in my opinion, a dollar that will go against all these highs we are accumulating.
And regarding gold, yesterday we saw that it was in an interesting zone, notably the last weekly FVG zone, notably the first stop of the consolidation we had here. So 38.2% retracement. For now, it's reacting rather well. Well, it's not the reaction of the century, but we have well maintained this weekly FVG. We can also note on the short term that we have formed here, a first order block has formed. So well, here an immediate balance, maybe a tiny fair value gap. No, there is indeed an immediate balance, but well, a first signal here, reversal candle, immediate balance. Well, it comes after with the fair value gap, so the order block is rather here. It has been retested, it takes us a bit higher. There are chances that we have topped on gold, clearly, there are chances that we have topped. But the idea is to say that it can bounce. It can at least come back to take yesterday's high with its FVG. If it gets rejected, well, it's more indicative of a continuation of the retracement. Otherwise, why not come back to work all the stops we left on this move. I like to have a liquidity grab before initiating a movement. The fact that there wasn't one here, it leads me to think that this FVG will be repriced, for example. After, I don't know if that will be the case, but I think we could come back to it. And the zone here that we touched, personally, I think it can be interesting. You see, we have the sell side, the last impulse of the last order block, it hasn't become a breaker block. So for me, this is really a good zone to start considering a rebound on gold. After, we'll see if that's the case, there's the FOMC, there are the rates, there was the international FOMO, we saw everyone going to buy physical gold. So well, that's already a lot of FOMO. And I think we have topped, we are not very far from the top. At worst, there will be a consolidation with a final deviation, but I really think that everyone FOMO'd here. So I think the market is topping out on gold and that in the coming months, we might need to consider and have the repricing of this breakout candle of this fair value gap potentially. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. Again, you have access to a lot of free content. We'll meet again later on the channel or tomorrow for a new macro review. Ciao. Ciao.