Transcription
Last year it was Justin Jefferson, Ashton Genty, and Alvin Kamara. Guys that you drafted who completely tanked, destroyed your chances of winning a championship, and ultimately probably ruined your fantasy football season.
In today's video, I am identifying about seven players I personally will not be drafting because I think they have the same chance in 2026 to absolutely kill your league in the worst way possible, right? Like kill your chances of winning a championship.
Let's get this out of the way. I like every player in today's video. I don't dislike them. I really do. It's just I hate all of their draft prices. All right. Starting off with Mr. CD Lamb. And yeah, this video is going to be full of heavy hitters. All right. I'm not going to tell you to avoid the guy who's being drafted in the 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th round. We're talking about heavy hitters, guys who could be legitimate landmines in your drafts this year.
CD Lamb is currently my wide receiver six. I am lower on him than most of these fantasy websites. I would love to draft a wide receiver in this offense, but I don't think it will be CD Lamb. His currently a his current asking price, his ADP, is a first round pick, a top 10 overall selection. I just can't understand why I would pay that price when there is a nonzero chance that he might not be the highest scoring receiver in fantasy football on his own team. I know who we all know who I'm talking about. It's George Pickkins who's currently available in the third round. Guys, when CD Lamb was injured, George Pickkins proved he could be an alpha number one wide receiver. He opened up a lot of Cowboy fans eyes, a lot of NFL fans eyes, right? From week three to six, he was the definition of dominant in that four game span, more points per game than any other wide receiver in the entire NFL, more than JS Puka and a Monra St. Brown.
Now, look, both Lamb and Pickkins can thrive in this offense. It's a great environment, but I don't believe that CD Lamb has the same ceiling with Pickkins than he had previously without George Pickkins. Pickins the dominant target earner now in the NFL. When CD Lamb returned from injury and from week seven onwards, there was a clear uh 1A 1B combo type of situation. There was no hierarchy where Lamb was like, "It's it's my team, right?" In fact, in that span from week seven onwards, a huge span, Pickkins led the team in points per game, receptions per game, receiving yards per game, yards per target, yards per route run, and total routes run. Now, obviously, CD Lamb coming back from a high ankle sprain impacted his performance a little bit, but you simply cannot tell me that Pickkins doesn't have the potential to give you maybe exactly what Cidi could give you, but two rounds later, guys, since 2022. If you don't think Pickkins had a big impact on Lamb's fantasy output, since 2022, Lamb has played 48 games without George Pickkins, that's the right side of that uh your screen here, this comparison without all right, 48 games, averaged over 20 points per game. All right, 10 targets per game, 88 receiving yards per game. He has played 15 games with George Pickkins and in that span averaging just 14 points per game. You cannot tell me it's not going to make an impact. I think there's a good possibility that with Pickkins in this offense, Cidi is more in the range of a 15 to 17 point per game scorer than he is the 23 point per game scorer that you saw, you know, back in that historic 2023 year. And to be honest, like throughout his career, expecting CD Lamb to score like 23 points per game, that looks more like an outlier than some sort of expectations from CD Lamb in my opinion, right? Still a good value, but the price tag is too much. And almost nobody is even talking about the fact that the Cowboys passing attack in general could be heading into a slight regression. They were the perfect offense to be attached to in 2025 for fantasy football. Bottom three defense forced to throw at a top three rate. Only the Rams had more passing yards per game than these Dallas Cowboys. But it's not the same defense heading into 2026 as it was in 2025. In November of last year, they traded for a top five defensive tackle in Quinn and Williams. This one move helped their defense tremendously. Then in the NFL draft, they go out and select Josh Downs and Malachi Lawrence in the first round. Both who will be day one starters, five of their seven total draft picks were defensive players. Again, I love CD Lamb, but I don't think he has the same ceiling as some of the some of the other first round picks. I think it's maybe a little bit of name equity here. Uh and in my projections, I would just rather target George Pickkins as my third player than CD Lamb as my first player.
Now guys, I appreciate you watching the video. You might not agree with my takes, but hopefully you're willing to listen. I appreciate y'all being here. I have a really audacious goal to reach a 100,000 subscribers before week one of the 2026 NFL season. If you're not subscribed yet, do me a favor. Go ahead and sub to the channel if you like the content. Hit the like button and hype if you're on mobile to show some love.
Okay, second one. Again, I told you we're going with absolute bangers here. I might get a lot of hate in the comment section, but Jeremiah Love, I don't think I'm going to be drafting much Jeremiah Love. I loved him as a prospect. But to be clear, you know, this is a situation where I have no doubt about it that in the very near near future, Jeremiah Love will be one of the best fantasy football running backs you can have. Okay. However, I think there are too many red flags for me to draft him as high as he's going in his rookie season. Red flag numero uno. Okay, I'm going to wave some red flags for you. The price point. Okay, if you want love as a rookie, he has to be the second player you draft in your fantasy football teams. He rightfully so is the highest priced rookie in fantasy football drafts this year. You have to take him in the second round. He's a mid-sec round pick. When you look at ESPN and Yahoo and underdog ADP meanwhile the other rookies in this class like Carnell Tate, Jadarian Price, Mai Lemon are all going in the sixth and seventh rounds, right? I love, you know, putting some rookies on my roster. I'm a huge fan of it with the upside and the potential movements that you can make. But this feels like Jeremiah Love at his ceiling as a rookie. I mean, we don't have to go that far back to look at picking a rookie running back in the second round being a bad idea. Ashton Genty was a second round pick by ADP last year and sometimes a first round pick. We should learn from that. All right. He was drafted as the sixth running back overall, which Jeremiah Love is not being drafted in the top six at running backs, right? He finished with 14.4 points per game, the RB 16 on a points per game basis. Now, Love is more affordable like we talked about, but he still has to be your second drafted player like Genty was last year if you want in on the guy. All right, that's red flag number one.
Red flag number two, the offense as a whole. All right, last year the Cardinals were battling out for one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL. The only thing that they were top 10 in is passing attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. And obviously that's because they were down in every single game, really needing to throw the ball from behind. They won three games. Two of them were with Kyler Murray, only one of them with Jacobe Brassette. But their rushing attack was absolute cheekies. Okay, cheeks. It didn't help that James Connor and Trey Benson went down with injuries, obviously, but they were 31st in rushing yards. Only the Raiders had fewer. Uh they were 32nd in rushing attempts. Uh 27th in rushing touchdowns. They were just completely average across the board. The offense was rough. Uh scoring rate, they were 23rd. Points per drive, 23rd. They were just completely average. I asked myself two things here when I think about this offense. Number one, will their rushing attack approve? Obviously, yes, right? I mean, it has to. But number two, will they be able to establish the run more? I'm not sure. Okay? Because if they're able to establish the run more, it's because their defense is helping them be more competitive in games. How did their defense improve? They added a fourth round edge rusher, and that's pretty much it. All right. It's basically the running it back with almost the same defense last year that never let them establish the run. Okay, it's hard to improve your your run game when your defense isn't keeping you off the field.
Red flag number three, Tyler Alier. Might sound silly, but they just signed this guy. He was under the impression he was going to lead their backfield. Tyler in his career as a rookie showed that he was very uh capable of leading a backfield. Uh he's always been involved even with Bejon there inside the 5yd line. You look at his his carries inside the 5yd line there. He accounted for 36% of Atlanta's carries in Bejan Bejan's rookie year. The rotation that I imagine for Jeremiah Love and Tala Aier in Love's rookie season is more like what you guys saw in Jir Gibbs' second season in Detroit, right? That year, uh, you know, Gibbs led the snapshare, but Monty was still heavily involved. I project that this year again with Jeremiah Love. The rushing attempt percentage could be closer than people are comfortable with. I wouldn't be surprised like weeks one to five where they're almost splitting opportunities and people are really frustrated yelling on Twitter. Uh and I'm most confident that Alier will have a role on the goal line like Montgomery had in that 2024 season when Gibbs and Monty were both uh involved on the goal line.
Now the the last red flag I want to talk about is just the general outlook for this team, right? The quarterback room is an absolute mess. I don't know how long Jacobe Brusset will play and he's probably the best engine for that offense. Is Carson Beck even good? Uh, this team is projected to win the second fewest games in the NFL. They have the most difficult strength of schedule in 2026 according to Warren Sharp, who has a lot of great analytics that go into those projections. I just think there's too many red flags and I'm sorry. I just I don't think I'm willing to make the pick.
All right, right after this next take, I have some incredibly exciting news for you guys. But again, another heavy hitter. It's Malik Neighbors. We are not hiding at all in this video. I don't think I'm going to be drafting much much Malik Neighbors. The injury seems far more serious than we originally thought. As of right now, it does not sound like he's going to be ready. Week one, let's play this on a timeline. Okay. All right. We're going to go a little timeline here. September 28th, 2025, Malik Neighbors tears his ACL. A month later, October 28th, he had what we thought would be the only surgery to repair that ACL. May 14th, reports come out that Neighbors has a second surgery, and they call it a cleanup surgery to kind of, you know, clean up some of the uh the scar tissue, if you will. Right now, my go-to Jeff Mueller, who's a doctor over on X, compared this to JK Dobbins when he had his knee fixed and kind of like scoped up a little bit, right? He suggested there was a potential pup here, uh, which means to start the year, neighbors could be on the pup from weeks one to four. Okay. May 21st, John Harbaugh, head coach of the New York Giants, come out and they ask him about the second surgery for Neighbors. And he uses verbiage in those interviews. He says things like, "We don't know when he'll be back." All right, it was not a simple knee injury. He goes on to say things like, "It's just impossible to predict. We don't know when he'll be available." Then he says things like, "If he's out there, great for week one." He's talking about if he's not, great. Either way, we'll be ready to go. They are not committing at all to any timeline at all for neighbors. Jeff Mueller on the second surgery mentions, "Look, I mean, maybe week one, it's it's possible, but there's maybe weeks four to six." Guys, it's just we we've gone from like he's ready at training camp to maybe week one to maybe he's starting on the pup list. This timeline is not set in stone. His current draft price is a second rounder. He has fallen, but he's not fallen enough. Okay, he's still projected to go in the second round. I mean, let me play a comparison. And I know this might sound weird, but I'm there's a reason I'm doing this. Okay, do you guys remember Rasheed Rice's ADP last year after he was suspended for six games? Do you remember that he ended up having an ADP of 71st in one quarterback formats? Okay. And I know it isn't the same exact situation, but at least with Rashid Rice, you had a confirmed timeline to work with where you knew he was going to come back. No major injury to recover from. Off the- field issues may have pushed him down a little bit further, but you have to draft Malik Neighbors 50 picks ahead of where you took Rice last year. All right. I mean, I'm going to need to see a serious fall in his current asking price to be in. He has the sec, again, has to be the second player that you draft off the board. Now, don't get me wrong, I want Malik Neighbors on my teams when he's healthy and ready to go. On a point per game basis, I have him fifth at 18 points per game in my projections. I think he'll be a superstar when healthy, but my projections just don't account for injuries. That's really difficult to do. I more look at like the point per game um outcome of when they do play.
By the way, this is a great segue. What you're looking at there is my projections in my 2026 draft guide. This is a huge day for me here on Fantasyland Football. I am dropping version one of my 2026 draft guide officially today. This is the coolest thing I've ever done. I I dead ass. I'm I'm being so real with you guys. Shout out to Kate. Shout out to the entire team as we put this together. This is the coolest draft guide in the industry. The best draft in draft guide in the industry. It's not even close, quite frankly. Uh it's absolutely incredible. Not only do you have a bunch of featured players, a bunch of writeups on these players, you also have the ultra cheat sheet, uh, which is infamous. I've been, you know, 50,000 people used my cheat sheet last year. I'm sure that will grow this year. Um, we've got my complete projections for every position, for every team. Uh, absolute gamechanging tools throughout the draft guide. And you can officially get it right now by purchasing the 2026 season pass with the promo code land. It just dropped today. both the draft guide and the season pass. It's just $34.99. The best deal in in the industry. It's not even close. You won't find a better fantasy deal out there this entire year. If you buy it today, it's about 17 cents per day because you get access to the site for the entire year. You get my draft guide, you get the cheat sheet, you get a guaranteed spot in a land league that I host here for reddraft. I'm going to answer your fantasy questions on stream. You get vouchers. You get all the rankings in season, offseason, all the tools. It is absolutely by far the best deal in the industry. A no-brainer. Check it out down below in the pin comment. Uh it'll lead you to a point where you can buy the season pass to get the draft guide.
Okay. Another name here that I am not drafting. It's just not going to happen. David Montgomery. On the outside looking in, I truly do understand why people are excited about Montgomery this year. But personally, I absolutely hate drafting him over any of the other players around his ADP. I mean like right now he's being drafted right alongside of like Jaylen Herz, Carnell Tate, Evans, Adun, Jadarian Price, Tutin Dart, Harold Fannon. I just hate his ADP right now. To me, he's an absolute floor play. I could be the definition of a dead zone running back compared to the other guys around him with potential league winning upside. I mean, people's mindset right now, and you might be watching this, might this might be your mindset, is man, Montgomery has been so good in Detroit. Imagine how good he'll be in Houston. My mindset is Houston is a rough change of scenery uh offensively for him to thrive in. Right? Let me show you the comparison. Okay, we're going to go on a this or that. Right? So, in Detroit, he consistently played behind a great offensive line. I mean, uh this year they they ranked 12th in PFF's final offensive line grades, but for the entire time, they've been one of the best offensive lines in the league. Meanwhile, Houston last year had one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. They ranked 27th. I know they've improved it, right? But it's still a bad offensive line. in Detroit. Again, the grass is greener in my opinion. There it was. Uh he was a part of one of the most elite offenses in the NFL. Top five in points scored in total yards each of the seasons he was in the Motor City. Meanwhile, Houston well below average for offense for a long time. All right. In Detroit, they built one of the most successful rushing attacks in the entire NFL. Top seven rushing touchdowns. Every year he was there, always rushing a high amount. Meanwhile, Houston, even in the Joe Mixon days, right, like that year where they were great, Joe Mixon was great, they have struggled to efficiently attack on the ground, the players I project him around are all so much cheaper in drafts. I just can't find a reason to be in on Montgomery. Like Rashad White, Jaylen Warren, and Tony Pard. Uh, you know, Montgomery is a fifth or sixth round pick. Warren and Pard go one to two rounds later. Rashad White goes four to five rounds later. in PPR formats. I don't know why I would have a big difference between Montgomery and Rashad White. I project him to be the clear workhorse in Houston. I if you feel that way, like I agree. I think that's probably the case. If I'm wrong and this take is incorrect, it will ultimately be because I didn't project the Texans to take the offensive leap that they would have in that scenario, right? And I'm okay to be wrong in this scenario.
All right, let's talk about a quarterback I am avoiding. It is Joe Burrow. I love Joe Burrow. I mean, it's a common trend in today's value in today's today's video, but it's all about price. I think Burrow is just too expensive this year. Currently, a fourth or early fifth round pick in ESPN and Yahoo ADP. I love Burrow, but like guys, come on. How in the world is there zero discount on Joe Burrow after these recent years? In the last three seasons, he's played 69% of Cincinnati's games. He's missed 16 games in that span, almost an entire season worth of games. In 2025, he averaged 16.8 points per game. The quarterback 15 on points per game basis. In 2023, he averaged 14.7 points per game. The quarterback 25 on a points per game basis. Everybody is chasing what he did in 2024. And I get it. He's totally capable of being a a 20 plus point per game scorer. But to pay off this draft price, Burrow's going to have to throw 40 touchdowns and he's gonna have to stay healthy. And ask yourself, did the Bengals do anything to help protect him this uh off seasonason? Did they do anything? Well, in the NFL draft, they took two centers, one in the fourth and sixth round. That's that's what they did. All right. That's basically what they did to help Joe Burrow. With their first round pick, they traded for veteran defensive tackle Sexy Dexi. Their first, second, and third round picks were all spent on defense, which by the way, if the defense in Cincinnati drastically improves, that will not be good for Joe Burrow and fantasy football. It'll be great for the Bengals organization, but it will not be good for fantasy football. You want your quarterbacks having to throw the ball down in games needing to constantly compete with the other offense. There has been no improvement on the offensive line, by the way. No improvement at all whatsoever. I mean, they they just keep having they keep we keep asking them to learn the lesson of protecting Joe Burrow. They keep not learning the lesson. Okay. Also, there is no rushing upside to Joe Burrow's game. He is a top three quarterback in ADP. The other two quarterbacks are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who clearly have insane rushing upside. All right. Like why would you be buying Burrow at quarterback three prices? There are so many cheaper options. Burrow is just a terrible pick for team building. He has to be either your third or fourth round pick, which is like crazy. Or is it fourth or fifth round pick? I'm sorry. Right. Meanwhile, Daniels and Jaylen Herz go about a round later. Jackson Dart goes two rounds later. Brock Pury is going in the eighth round. I mean, Brock Perie is basically discount Joe Burrow. Why would you build your team this way? I don't get it. I love Burrow, but you're just banking on something to happen that probably won't happen.
All right. Okay, I said I'd have seven uh players today, so I'm going to do two quick honorable mentions. I'll go through these players more in depth. If you guys want me to later, leave a comment down below and let me know. Nico Collins. Okay, my main concern with Neo Collins is number one, they have a lot of young receivers that I think will be more involved this year rather than less involved like Jaden Higgins, Christian Kirk, uh sorry, um Jaylen Null rather, and you've also got Tank Dell coming back from injury. I don't trust the offensive line and they didn't change offensive coordinator. Okay. Uh Trey McBride. It's not that he's going to be bad. It's just I think there is going to be regression across the board for the passing attack in Arizona. They're going to probably not uh throw the ball as much as they did last year. It's a new scheme. Uh Marvin Harrison might be healthy. I just think that maybe we are drafting him a little bit too high based off what happened last year. Uh so it's a little bit concerning for me.
But guys, I appreciate you watching the video. Do me a favor. Hit the like button and show some love. Subscribe again. We're trying to get to 100K uh before week one of the NFL season. I appreciate y'all so much being here. I would really uh love for you guys to sign up for the season pass with the code land. It is the best deal. DM me on Discord, on Twitter, wherever. Email me if you have any questions. Would love to help you out and I'll see you in the next video. Adios, people. Nothing but love.
This is Chad. Last year, Chad joined his friend's fantasy football league for the first time. He drafted the worst team possible and finished last place. A year later, he lost his job, his wife left him, and his kids no longer respected him. Don't be like Chad. Get the season pass for just $34 with the promo code land. Draft day has never been so easy.