Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the heavy metalverse. Today, we're going to talk about gold, and we're going to discuss the path through the rest of the year. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, gold is currently trading around $4,000 an ounce, and it's actually, it's actually had a sizable correction after this large move up we had going into January 2026. Now, if you followed my views on gold, uh, for the last year or so, we talked about a parabolic rally, but then a correction in the first half of 2026. Considering that it's now June, I thought it was timely to maybe make a video update now, since the first half of 2026 is almost over.
Predicting where the low is going to occur is very difficult. Um, you know, I talked about it with with Bitcoin. We, we sort of speculate about it with, with things, but no one truly knows. But we can look at history to get an idea of, of what might happen. And so, my guess is that gold will likely find a low, probably between the June to October time frame. But on average, in midterm years, gold tends to bottom in June or July on average. So, let's go through some of the examples and then talk about, you know, why the low will likely occur in that time frame.
So, the first thing we could do is look at seasonality. And as I've said before, seasonality only works about 70% of the time. So, if you run with it, it'll likely work more often than not, but about 30% of the time, you would probably see it do something else. So, seasonality is certainly not everything. But if you look at the year-to-date ROI of gold in 2026 and compare it to the average of prior midterm years, you get a chart that looks like this. If you overlay one standard deviation to that average, you can see we exceeded the returns in the beginning of the year, and now the losses have exceeded the typical losses that we get going into the summer. Currently, it is day 162 of the year, and on average, gold bottoms on day 187. So, on average, in midterm years, gold tends to find a low in the summer. It can extend longer, but I would start really looking for lows to form, you know, especially the later we get in June, and especially going into like July, August, September, October time frame, and likely gearing up for another move up going into sort of the 2027, 2028 time frame.
One of the reasons why, I mean, it's so hard to nail down lows. Let's actually look at, at a lot of the midterm years rather than, rather than just say, "Oh, this is what happens on average." Let's actually look at, at what most of them have actually done. So, we're going to remove the average. Now, look at 2026 compared to 2022. You'll notice that they don't look that dissimilar, right? What you'll see is that gold had a move early in the year, and then it kind of bled out, um, and ultimately it found a low around the time that the stock market found a low. So, that's the reason why I feel like I have to be o. As much as I'd like gold to bottom sooner, and I think it could, I have to be open-minded to a low occurring a little bit later if gold is to follow what I would think would be a correction by stocks going into like late Q3, early Q4.
If you look at 2018, you can see that again, we had sort of an initial move early in the year, and then we just kind of bled out into day 227, which would only be a couple of months from now, before the market started to pick back up. If you compare this to 2014, you can see we ended up getting the low later in the year. If you look at 2010, there was a low that formed in the summer. It was, it was in a bull market, and we continued higher. And if we go look at 2006, which I think there's plenty of, there are some similarities, there was a low formed, you know, around the summer months, and then we sort of trended up after that. And then going into 2007, gold continued to go up.
So, my guess is that gold will likely find a low between the June to October time frame. The reason I say that is because on average, gold tends to bottom in June or July in midterm years. Uh, but if stocks get a correction, it could drag gold down with it. Be that as it may, there are some examples in the past where gold starts to go up even during that stock market correction, which is why it could bottom earlier in the summer. Let's go through a few examples. All right.
Now, let's go through one of the more egregious ones, because one of the things that we've talked about a lot is how in the last two major gold bull markets, they were interrupted, both of them, they were interrupted by a recession in the United States. Now, in the current gold bull market, we don't, we haven't had a recession in the United States. So, I don't even know if the current correction that you're seeing is actually one that lines up with a recession or not. The labor market, as it stands right now, is still holding up relatively okay. So, I can't look at that and be like, "Oh, well, this is a recession necessarily," because it might not be. You might say, "Well, this is a pretty steep correction by gold, and have we had corrections like that before and not have a recession in the United States?" Well, if you look at 2008, gold dropped about 33% in the larger bull market before going on to new all-time highs. If you look at 1974, gold dropped about 25% before going to new all-time highs later that year. What is the current drawdown by gold? It's about 28%. Okay, but if you look at what gold did in 2006, it had a correction of about 25%. If you look at what gold did in 1973, it had about a 28% drop. Now, again, these were fairly normal corrections for gold to have in route to a larger speculative blow-off top that then lasted a really, really long time. So, I'm not here to say that it, it can't go lower. What I'm here to say is that look, there's pretty, there's pretty obviously large corrections in gold that have happened in bull markets, and the top still was not in.
Now, you might retort and say, "Well, what about the monthly RSI, right? That one was got that got pretty egregiously overbought. And so, could we really expect gold to recover after a monthly RSI of 95?" But the last time the monthly RSI was around 95 was actually in 1973, when gold had a correction, about a 28% correction, which is where it is right now, and then we still rallied up to all-time highs. What I would argue with the RSI is you want to look for divergences, like a high on the RSI and then a lower high a few years later, and then the price puts in a high while, and then a higher high. So, you, you get like a negative, um, this bearish divergence that essentially occurs. But we've only had the initial high, right? And even last business cycle for gold, you can see the high for the monthly RSI occurred right before this drop in 2008, but we went higher. Gold went higher and printed a lower high on the monthly RSI. So, for me, I remain still bullish on gold, and having a correction in the first half of 2026 is what we said would likely happen, right? We said this is a likely outcome. And if you look at what happened in the last midterm year, you can see that gold also had had some sizable corrections in the last midterm year. If you look at 2022, you can see that gold corrected from March into, you know, into like October, and it had about a 22% drop.
So, what I'm saying is this. I'm saying you have your first leg of the bull market, and then a midterm year consolidation correction. And then you have your second leg of the bull market, and then your midterm year consolidation correction, which will then eventually lead to sort of the third and likely final leg of the bull market going into the end of the decade. That is how I think this is going to play out for gold. You should be aware that in bull markets, you will have corrections like this. Okay, this is a, a fairly standard correction for gold. I know it looks bad, but again, when you look at monthly Heikin Ashi candles, I mean, this is what it looks like, right? And you can see how in these prior bull markets, you know, getting these corrections was just par for the course and wasn't necessarily an indication of a, of a top that was going to last for a very long time. So, I think this is a really important chart to, to really zoom out on, um, to hopefully get a better understanding of, of like what actually could happen. And I also think too that, you know, if you're, if you're a crypto trader, you might be used to market ideas playing out over just a few weeks or a few months. But with gold, this is something that, you know, it just kind of sits in your portfolio for a decade or two decades or longer, and, and it tends to do pretty well over the long term, even though there are periods where it, it doesn't do so well.
Now, when you look at gold divided by the stock market, what you'll see is that gold has rallied, or sorry, yeah, gold rallied up against the stock market and took out these prior highs, but it actually had a really large sell-off. Okay, now, there are times where this kind of stuff happens. You get sort of this big fake out above it, and then we come right back down, and then you get another push back up. We've seen that actually happen a few times before. Like if you look at things like Bitcoin dominance, and you look at, at, you know, the breakout that it had right here, right? It sort of had this, this small little breakout, and then it came back down. We've seen that happen with, with many different assets. I think even Palladium did something like that once upon a time, right? Look at Palladium. You can see how it, it broke through, and then after breaking through, it had a sizable correction, right? It dropped about 20%, and then it really went through. Now, it's come back down. But you can see how sometimes after you break through these levels, it, it can in fact come back down.
So, here's the thing. If you go back in history and look at the times previously where gold sort of had these moves, uh, against the stock market, you can see that, well, 1973 is an example, and in the 1960s, 1970s, where we broke through. You can see that, and, um, you know, you can see how, how much it continued to go up. In 2008, we sort of broke through this level, oscillated here for a little, and then continued to go higher. What I would, what I could see happening is the bleed for gold really slowing down, if not coming to a complete stop in the next few months, and then gold starting to recover while stocks then start to show weakness after the semis start to to sort of lose the bid for, at least a little while, as, as cooler markets prevail going into the end of the midterm year.
Remember, when you look at the stock market in midterm years, what you'll see, the cadence of stock markets in midterm years is that you get a correction by stocks at, at the beginning of the year, and then often you'll get a correction by stocks at the end of the year. That's 2014. Here's 2018, and then 2022, right? You'll get corrections by stocks at the beginning of the year and the end of the year. And so, we already got our correction by stocks at the beginning of the year. We'll likely get one at the end of the year as well. And so, at least in the back half of the year. So, if gold were to bottom out, let's say between June and October, and then stocks start to really be are weak around that time, then you would start to see the gold ratio go up against the stock market, the gold valuation go up against the stock market, uh, during that time. So, I would argue that it's possible that gold could bottom as early as sort of the June, July time frame, because on average, that's what we've seen, right? On average, that's where we've seen it ultimately find a low. We could go through all the different examples as well. Uh, like we already looked at all of them through, through 2006. Here's 2002. You can see it was more of a bull market back then. 1998. You can see it found a low in kind of like late June, early July, and then just swept that low in October. But I mean, I, there wasn't really a great reason to be bearish on it after that low, just for a sweep of the prior low. And then you can look at 1994, 1990. In 1990, gold found a low late June, early July, and then went back up. And see if gold were to do something like this, if it were like bottom out in the next few weeks and then trend back up at the same time that maybe the stock market's getting a correction, that's how you could see that gold ratio against, uh, the gold valuation against, um, the stock market really, uh, change a lot. Here's what it looks like in 1986, and in 1982. Like in 1982, you can see gold bottomed out in like late June, early July, and then had a pretty nice rally into the end of the year. You can look at 1978, 1974, 1974. You can see we bottomed out like June, July time frame. Uh, 1970, etc.
So, I don't think it makes sense to get overly concerned about the correction in gold. I mean, objectively, last year, we looked at the market and said, "Look, gold is due for a correction. It'll likely happen in the first half of 2026. It could go a little bit beyond that, but I don't think it'll go too much beyond that." The other thing to remember is that for gold, the bull market support band, as I've stated previously, is based on the 20-month moving average and the 21-month EMA. And what you'll notice is that in the last bull market that gold had, it basically stayed above that bull market support band on the monthly, with the exception of the fake out in 2008. You can see in 19, in the 1970s, gold stayed above that bull market support band with the exception that the, the drawdown here that we had right, right after the rec, the recession in 1974. So, we actually already did drop below it in 2022. So, I guess what I'm saying is look, there's a good chance gold will sort of find support on this bull market support band, consolidate there, and then ultimately go up higher into the end of the decade. That's at least my guess as to what's going to happen.
Some people ask, "Is it possible for gold to put in new all-time highs this year?" It is possible, but I think the only way it would happen at this point is if gold were to bottom within the next few weeks. If it doesn't bottom within the next few weeks, and instead it goes down into say, like September or October, then it would be less likely that it would be putting in new all-time highs this year. But it's not impossible. For instance, if you look at 1973, you can see that gold found a top in, uh, June, fell down into November, and then was putting in new all-time highs by January. Right? So, that was only about seven or eight months. And in that correction, gold dropped about 28%, which is what it's down about right now. In 1974, gold topped in April, dropped, found a low in July, and then rallied to new all-time highs by December of that same year. So, it is possible, but in order for gold to put in new all-time highs this year, it would need to bottom out within the next month. If it does not bottom out within the next month, it is very unlikely to put in new all-time highs. I do think it will eventually put in new all-time highs in the 2027, 2028 time frame. But if you want to happen, but if you want it to happen in 2026, we need to see bit, we need to see gold bottom out relatively soon.
So, those are my views on gold structurally. I would remain, like I remain bullish on gold. Uh, I think these consolidation correction periods in the midterm years are a nice reset in the market, and I think that's essentially what, what gold is experiencing right now. So, those are my views. Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up. I want to remind people that I am throwing a conference later this year. If you want to sign up to get updates for that, check the link down in the description below, and, and you can sign up and get updates for that conference in case you're interested in attending. I will see you guys next time. Bye.