This man spent 45 years quantifying what actually works in the markets and was the only winning researcher of the Charles Dao Award in 2020, the highest annual honor in technical analysis research.

We statistically showed that any type of stops that were put in place degraded the performance of the methodology. We're not the only ones that think that way. Stanley Ducker Miller, arguably the greatest trader of our time. He said, "I've been trading for 40 years. I've never used a stop in my life. Anything can blow through a stop. If something crazy in the world happens right now, you're going to get filled as a market order."

Introducing Larry Connors, author of over 25 trading books, pioneer of the two period RSI, and founder of one of the most prestigious quant research firms in all of finance.

Shorter term RSIs, two, three, four period RSI. We created our own Connor RSI. What they're really doing is they're measuring fear. They're either selling the market off because they're concerned about some sort of event or they're just pausing the buying. What is the mechanics of the RSI that you created? The call is RSI.

I can um probably give an example of there are usually no edges in first order thinking things that are basically obvious where the potential alpha comes into place is if you're immediately able to move into second order thinking. Okay, after you have your first order companies, what else is required? If you really do believe that AI is going to play itself out, power is required, data centers are required. When we get into third order thinking, that gets even harder. There I was looking at Duolingo. Even I was able to program the AI to teach me how to speak another language. And I'm looking at this and I'm saying to myself, they're dead. They're providing services that can be done by AI for free. If AI is going to win, if AI can provide these free services, who can't compete against that? My background was I got hired at Meil Lynch out of school. So I got an opportunity to really learn how to play the game from some of the best. And I had a breadandbut setup that was there that I pretty much used over and over. But I remember we hosted a New Year's Eve party and I'm sitting at the kitchen table and I'm saying to myself, you are the oldest 34 year old on the planet because we were trading right into the clothes and it was just I'm not going to do this for another 30 years type of thing.

What kind of a temperament or personality type does it take to thrive in that arena?

I've seen um so many people succeed and I've seen even more people not succeed at it. Usually it comes down to one thing. Hey Titans, we have a huge episode today that is with Larry Connors. Now, if you don't know who Larry Connor is, he's one of the most exceptional minds in the training space. One of the most impressive guests that I've ever sat upon. And after the episode itself, I have to say it's within my top three episodes of Titles of Tomorrow that we've ever done. And in preparation for today's episode, Larry actually presented to me one of his key frameworks, something that he's never published before, which was a huge honor. And this is his power laws. How he's able to get the most out of the markets, the ways of thinking, the strategies, the mindsets, the execution types that minimize your downside and have extreme upside. So what we've done for you today inside of the Titans inner circle is prepared for you today's episode companion, which is Larry Connor's 25 books, today's episode, and his entire career insights distilled down into an episode companion. This resource is for you to download for free inside of Titan Circle alongside all of future guests and also previous guests. so you can get more out of each episode. If that sounds interesting to you, click the link in the description for free to join Titans Inner Circle. Without further ado, let's get into today's episode. Ladies and gents, welcome back to another episode. Larry, thank you for joining us. I think we have a lot to unpack, but you are the first guest to give me a framework that I believe you haven't really shared online before. So, this becomes a very nice way to set a foundation and a theme for the conversation. Before we do get into the power law of trading, which is your framework, I want to first get into alpha. Now this is a a term that everyone is hunting for but I I I think you would have some unique takes. I want to throw it as an open question. Uh is the job of a trader to achieve alpha?

Um well the job for an independent trader is to make money. Okay. And ideally do it for a consistent period of time. Um and if they're fortunate enough to be able to do it for decades at a period of time. Um there's a lot of work that goes into this. So, if there's not alpha in place, if they can't do better than the market averages, it's, you know, I usually recommend buy an index fund, do a 60/40. Um, if they're looking to make 5 6 7 8 9 10% a year, that's that's a better place to be. Um, you know, ideally the job, um, at least for independent traders, retail traders that are not managing other people's money is really there to maximize. It's it's to compound your capital. So a few ways that we could look to maximize and compound is either beat the benchmark, create alpha or get the equivalent of the benchmark but minimize the downside. So instead of having a minus 30% year, let's say, and then spending the next few years trying to recover your deficit, it's uh have the benchmark without the downside. Which side of the fence would you be on?

Well, it um having run two funds, it was the latter part is more important, but now that I manage um my own money, it is to maximize the returns each year. Um and you know

Is that more related to your personal risk appetite?

At this stage? Yes. Yeah. It's um it very much returns.

I would have thought with uh with time you'd be like I've got this capital I've built a whole career trying to acrue it. Let me now get into preservation states not necessarily compounding states.

Yeah that's a good question um and a and a good point you make. So are you familiar with the barbell strategy Nim Tip came up with in 2007? you know, in the scene to leave um the black swan. So, um the barbar strategy basically um I'll keep it simple. 80% of one's money would be placed in something risk-free. Okay.

Bonds.

Okay. T bills. Okay, keep it in short data T bills. The other 20% is there to max returns is really there to to be able to do that. Um Tib has basically made a career out of this. A lot of people have embraced this. a lot of successful people have have embraced it. There's also peace of mind that's there that no matter what happens in the trading or things that go on, you know that 80% of your capital is liquid and is safe as long as the US government stays in business, you're okay.

There we go. Curious now. So there is many types of trading and I I've got a familiarity but then you also threw a curveball at me which is you don't look at charts. So I need to then understand first of all systematic or discretionary which one would you be

Com uh used to be fully systematic now it's a combination of the two.

Okay. Why the transition?

Um especially a a good number a number of our strategies are thematic in nature okay and before we started this you know we were talking about AI so um you know I mentioned December 20 um two 20 yeah December 2022 um was when I came across chat GPT could see immediately, you know, I was fortunate enough to be there on the internet side. Um, and you can see, okay, this is game on again. This is really going to change the way way way things that that are there. Um, you can't back test a revolutionary technology. Okay. So, every few years and depends upon what industry um that you're looking at, but in this case on a pure technology basis, there's a revolutionary technology. There's no back testing that could that could be done. And if you take a look at people, for example, who use fundamentals, who use systematic fundamentals that were there, they very likely missed this phenomenal move that has happened in the AI stocks over the past couple years because they were pricing things on a look back basis, not on a revolutionary technology basis and what was going to bring out.

How did that affect your decision-m or is that in the framework?

It's in the framework.

Okay. Okay. So, let's kick it off. So, the power law of trading. So, if you can give me an overview of what this framework is.

Yeah. If you want to read one at a time for for sure.

So we have the investment philosophy. Do you want to start off there or you want

You can start with number one with which is dando. I think that would be helpful.

So number one is long strategies thematic investing new revolutionary technologies.

Yeah. You can uh if you go back a little bit higher you'll see the philosophy that's there. It says Dando.

Uh okay. At the top. Yes.

Dando which is heads I win big tails I lose little. Yeah.

Asymmetrical gain.

Yeah. Yeah. So that comes from Manesh Parry. Um the name of his book is the dyno investor. Um probribe probably has had the greatest influence in my thinking. Um and you I've been fortunate to be around a lot of great traders o over the years and over the decades. Um I don't know man I mean I read the book but it immediately resonated with me that structuring positions in such a way that heads I win tails I lose a little. Um and that has had a major influence on there. Um a lot of things end up you can end up um on a philosophical basis you can end up making decisions in your life just based upon ask okay okay with this decision is it heads I win or when tails I lose a little or just just the opposite of that.

Hey Titans let's take a quick break from the episode to talk about a sponsor and partner of the show that is Ola Prime. Now, a lot of traders have been talking about Ola Prime because they were recently the winner of the fastest payout proper award in the IFX Expo here in Dubai. And something that you don't see so often is that they are backed by their own brokerage firm, Ola Prime Markets. And a few things that I love about Ola Prime is that they have offers for futures, forex, and crypto traders. And most importantly, they allow you to trade on over eight platforms. And further, they do a 95% profit split, basically unheard of, which means whatever profit you make, you keep 95% of it. And most importantly, because of their reward, they're one of the only prop firms that offer a 1-hour payout through a structured 10point 1-hour payout system. Your payouts are practically on demand, which means you can spend more time on the chart trading, withdraw your profits, and go back to the markets. With all these steps, measures, and awards in place, they are truly redefining transparency and trust in the prof space. So, if you want to work with a profam that you can trust and a partner of the show, click the link in the description or use the code TO for Titans of Tomorrow, to get the best prices and discounts that I've personally negotiated for you guys, our Titans of Tomorrow audience. With that being said, let's get back into today's episode. Is it a wrong assumption to think when you have asymmetrical gain or a high risk-to-reward play that naturally it's inversely correlated and you would have a low win rate or can you have high win rate and high risk reward free lunch?

Yeah, the win rate is going to go down for sure. It will it will absolutely go down because what you're doing is you're structuring trades in in such a way that um you're risking one unit. Everything comes into a unit size. So, you're risking one unit. Um it's done with options. It's done with long options. You can sleep at night. You know exactly with that position what you can what you can lose. Um, but if you long calls for example um theoretically this the price can just run to an unlimited number. In the real world that doesn't doesn't happen. Um, but you structuring positions in such a way that you're risking one unit with the goal of making many units that's there. Okay. Um, if you do it in verticals you know what that max you can make. Um, I'm not a big fan of verticals, especially with revolutionary technologies, because no one knows just how far these stocks can run. Um, and we've seen this now all the way through with this AI cycle. They just keep going and going and going. Um, companies that I would have never imagined, things that I had positions in would have moved up as much as they moved up. And even right now, you know, as as we're speaking, um, Micron Technologies, obviously, memory is an important part of AI. Um, for those traders who've been out there for a few decades, they know the history of memory. They know the history of Micron. It's a cyclical stock. It runs up, run, then it goes down for a number of years, and then it runs back up.

Um, Micron has moved from, I believe, a hundred, it's now above $900 a share as we're doing this. I um we got into it only a few months ago at 400 with long options. So this 500 point gain that's there. Um, and if they're going to price this from a cyclical play, which memory was always cyclical, to a secular play, meaning this is going to be inherent in AI, they need to repric Micron.

I nor anyone in the world um knows just how far that stock could go. It could,

You know, it could reverse back down. Um, or it could go up, you know, we're talking hundreds of points. It could literally go up thousands of points.

When when we talk about a when we talk about price going up initially, it could be driven by the fundamentals of it, the industry and the revolutionary technology, but then it can be extended further towards what we would call a bubble, which is then euphoria hype. Sorry, we have euphoria hype and then it can just get overextended and then you start to think should I mean revert, should I start to take profit out or you can also think the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent and you just ride the wave. How how would you position yourself when you've already got the extended move now uh and now there's a you're looking for asymmetrical gain but the gain to hold is maybe now negative riskreward because you can for forego what you've uh unrealized to gain maybe a little bit extra and maybe the asymmetrical goes to now symmetrical to to then the other way.

Sure. Sure. Um so there's a couple of answers you asked a couple of questions within that one question. It was that's very good. Um, you know, number one, the worst thing I if if you're looking for asymmetrical gains, the worst thing you could do along the way, worst thing any trader can do along the way is chop off those gains. Okay? Stress, you need to be there. Okay. Um, two of the companies that I was in last year and I I handle a number of fairly large books, so I can have a 100 positions on at any given time. Um the two largest two amongst the two largest gainers last year were in companies I would have never have thought they would have run. One was GEV um GE Vernova and the other was Palunteer. Okay. Um and as they kept going up first I didn't know GE even spun off Vernova that was there. The AI identified that. Um Palunteer at 30 it was overpriced. At 40 it was overpriced. At 50 it was overpriced. And I don't know what the you know the high was. I think it go 180 190. Um, so one never knows just how far it's going to go. Um, being in the options and especially being in the longdated options, it gives a chance to be able to run. Um, one of the points you're making there, it is greater risk because what's happening is those options are moving hypothetically. Let's say you paid $20,000 total. Your position is $20,000 total. Um, if that's now a $200,000, you know, it's moved up 10x. Um, are you going to risk $200,000 on a hypothetical million-doll portfolio? Are you going to put it at risk with one stock?

Um, and that's where protection comes in. And I'm a big advocate of B basically going in and buying protection there along the way. They're out of the money puts that basically says no matter what happens to this stock, if it reverses significantly, if the bubble's going to burst, however it's going to be there, um, I'm going to be protected. This is the minimum I can make with those puts. Okay. Usually people especially the audience the style of trading we would have is we have a philosophy we've generated trade idea then trade execution we're in

And then we have a stop-loss which is to protect ourselves where it seems like you're not using a stop loss or even a mental stop loss you're using hedging systems to protect your downside.

What's the reason for this?

Um what we published back in 2009 um got got a lot of got got a lot of interesting comments about this but we we statistically showed that from I believe we started the test results might have gone back as 1985 um and we used the S&P 500 stocks that any type of stops that were put in place whether it was 1% 2% 5% we we literally went up to 50% stops which is really not a stop okay um degraded the performance of the methodology. Um, we're not the only ones that think that way. If you take a look, um, Stanley Duck Miller, who is arguably um, you know, arguably the greatest trader of our time, 30, I believe it's 30 consecutive years of profitability. He was George Soros's head head trader that was there. Um, he he has the there's uh, I keep this picture up there. He said, "I've been trading for 40 years. I've never used a stop in my life." So, he's averaged 30% a year for 30 year years. Audited performance. That's there. Um other people that are out there Eu and Sinclair um I'm going to mention two authors that people um should you know should read their books you Sinclair another is gentleman's name is Harry Krishnan that's literally his name um each have PhDs in physics each have um serious institutional bank test experience large hedge fund experience um but if you take a at at um I believe it's Sinclair especially he basically shows that it's better to pay athet than to have a stop in place because the reason there is that anything can blow through a stop. If something crazy in the world happens right now, those stops, you know, I'm not going to you're going to get filled as a market order.

Isn't the idea to have a stop to prevent yourself from being victim to a just, you know, unforeseen circumstance?

Sure. um after doing this for 45 years, I'll I'll it's better to have pots in place.

Very interesting.

The the next question for me therefore becomes is we had another guest on the show that I really enjoyed with with Rishi Nang and he argued the same thing and he said actually think about it. If you're entering a position and price goes down against you and where your stop loss would be, wouldn't the logical thing be to actually add more if the underlying reason for you getting into the position has not changed? That actually makes a lot of sense.

Yeah, it it does. You know, the other thing that people don't, you know, on on the surface, it see it makes a lot of sense. Um, and I know a lot of traders, successful traders that do use stops. What um when you run the the the test results, when we're running test results, we're running things um like in that example, there were millions. The sample size were millions and millions over many market regimes that were there. What they're doing is on a mean reversion basis, for example, they're missing out all the times you get stopped out and then it goes higher and gets stopped out. So, what they're doing is they're missing the moves on the upside and they're accumulating losses there along the way. Um, you know, it is I found it to be, you know, especially over the last few years, far better to basically have those puts in place and most importantly let those positions run. As much as we've all been taught, take things off the table. No one would ever went broke catching in register. Um, you leave, one leaves too much money on the table because you just don't know how far any of these stocks can move. So, for some reason, this doesn't feel intuitive to me and the reason is we're betting on an outlier scenario that it just keeps on running. But apart from a unicorn or in this case, revolutionary technology along your career, would it not be a larger opportunity cost of things that things that you were hoping would keep on running but then go back to your break even and therefore you left money on the table table on large increments.

It it it happens. Yeah. I mean ideally if you're setting up if you got a large enough move that's there and that has to be identified you know ahead of time. That's all part of the the systematic part. Um it basically assures that the gain a portion of the gain is locked in. Okay. Um but sure it

How would you do this? Would you use let's say an EMA to to trail your position?

So there are certain things um um and you know there's certain things that I work with a group of about 50 professional traders. We get together once a month um so there are certain things that basically out of respect to them. Okay.

Um you know I'll fair enough.

Yeah. But but you're you're in the ballpark that's there.

Cool. So I want to get into the next part which is asymmetric trading. So it's similar to the first one where it's win big and and lose small but then it's risk one unit to make multiple units. How would this differ from the previous point?

It's the same point. Yeah, it's very much the same point. I mean the majority of my portfolio both on the long side and short side um is looking to basically risk one unit with the goal of making multiple units. But um even even after doing this after 45 years, nobody can predict where things are going to be a month from now, two months from now. Um, you know, right before we came on here, the semis moved um, significantly. They just reversed and, you know, who knows what got announced, you know.

When it comes to position sizing, before I get into the question, I want to understand, would you grade a setup? Would you have something that you can consider A+ or high conviction versus lower conviction? and is the lower conviction but still worthwhile still has a alpha inside of it. Is it still worth trading or are you because you're looking for the asymmetrical gain you're specifically waiting for high conviction plays and then loading up risk.

Yeah. So on on it it depends upon the strategy. I'm trading multiple strategies both on the long and short side. Um there's different time frames that that are going on over there. Um on a high conviction basis there are certain strategies that's there especially on the short side. There's going to be limitations as to what's there. I you know when we're shorting and going into positions in no way do I believe these companies are going to go to zero. Um in a couple of cases you know that they do but we're looking to basically capture that sweet spot of you know for for whatever reason

Um that that for whatever reason that's there.

But go back and and I've got a couple of thoughts on this. Go back and answer ask that question again because I want to I want to make sure I cover both.

Okay. Yes. Yes, it was it was regarding when you want to because we got into risk. So before I understand what is risk one unit because then it will be okay of your account size or whatever the case may be. I want to understand before the risk it's the conviction because it's how do you determine a thesis because you're not looking at the charts but there is many pillars. It could be fundamentals it could be sentiments. It could be XY Z and then those amalgamated together. Would you try and make it quantitative and grade each things? because a lot of things can be subjective like uh the fundamental side of it how do you quantify something that is a subjective thing and then as a result of that, how do you determine conviction and therefore risk?

Yeah usually the risk is a dollar a month which is a percentage that's usually predetermined ahead of time um and it it's very rare that I'll go into something that's high conviction at the end of the day um I like everyone else have opinions on things and I can't tell you the number of times I have had you know trades that were basically they were put in front that should have been there and absolutely there and I overruled them didn't take the trades and then you know the stock would went would end up going there are other trades that have gone on there along the way I would have bet you know I would have bet anything that this can't miss and you know they did miss um so try to do equal position sizing um to get a little bit heavier with micron to go a little bit heavier on that um I believe the initial risk might have been one and a half times um that that was there but this is bas basically a little bit of discretion wars coming in. If per chance this was going to move from a cyclical valuation to a secular valuation,

It had a long way and if it, you know, if it does play itself out, um, if it does move secular, it has a long way to run from here. No predictions. I have no idea where it will go, but I want to be there. The main thing is to be there if it does play itself out.

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Yeah. Um the discretion I um again going back to the example that I gave on on the thematics and revolutionary thematics that that's there. That can't be systematized. I think we, you know, we were talking about that earlier, maybe before we came on the air, but um in 2022, December 2022, when I first got on chat GPT and said, "Okay, this is the internet all over again." Um, if if that was going to play itself out, how would I be able to go run a back test on these these companies that that that were there? And even back in, you know, in 2023, there were a number of questions there along the way. Valuations, Nvidia was overpriced, that was there. um is a very well-known professor at NYU who is on the corporate finance side well respected has written a number number of books on valuations um and he went on to CNBC and he felt Nvidia at the time was at 400 and change it's before it split 10 for one um and he said Nvidia was worth 250 okay um which would be 25 and today and you know we're over $200 this year so in looking back he was doing his job there's nothing wrong with that but there's no back testing to be able to do that. Um, so that's where you're really on a thematic basis. You're building your positions, working with the AI. We work very closely with the AI to basically identify what those positions could potentially be. We build our positions in such a way risking one unit with the goal of making many units for the times that they do have those moves.

Very nice. Let's get into now the first principles, which is undeniable truths. Markets go up, markets go down. How would you be using this?

Um been doing that for a number of years and it very much you know first principal thinking just for for everyone to know um is very much undeniable truths that's there. Musk has built all his businesses around first principal thinking. He doesn't have an engineering background. He doesn't have any anything in space um type of background. SpaceX is going public here tomorrow. Um he builds from first principles up. Bezos does the same thing. Um so first principles are undeniable truths. What's an undeniable truth from the market? Markets go up, markets go down. Okay, what happens there is that's where the heavy lifting begins. Okay, if markets are going up, what strategies are going to be traded? How are they correlated to each other? How are you putting together those those strategies? And the short side, how are you putting together your strategies there? on the short side. Um I run a fairly delta neutral book, okay, which is basically I come in most days and they're really um unless there's something crazy that happened overnight, um I'm pretty much sleeping comfortably. So I'm not really making any prediction of where the market's going to go and I'm I'm not running a market neutral. It's a delta neutral, but I'm balancing my my deltas to basically come in fairly neutral each day. Again, this is me coming out and saying, you know, no one can predict. Maybe some people claim they can, maybe they can. Um, I'll say I can't predict where the market's going to go on a day-to-day basis.

If the job of a trader, as we earlier described, was to make money hopefully through alpha and predict where price is going to be to do it. U what would be the correct framework if it's not to predict price?

Structure the trades in such a way basically to to it gets into a fairly complex system and it's got to be done at a step at a time. But it's structuring your trades in in such a way that um if there's some if they're if they have a reason to be bullish um on the market. It's basically putting together positions in such a way that in case they're wrong first they can predetermine what what the dollar risk is. That can be done with long options. Um, and number two, what happens if they're wrong? And um, what what I do is I hedge all the way through. I hedge out to a degree market risk, indust industry risk, um, and even on an individual stock basis. I'll hedge out the risk. Um, and it's not completely hedged out. I mean, hedging is going to cost money. You don't want your hedges to pay off at the end of the day. Um, but hedge is going to cost money. But what that does is basically balance. It allows for balance to come in in smoother returns over a longer period of time.

With first principles in mind, uh let's talk about some myths or speculations of what could be first principles and then you can agree or disagree. One would be uh blohai with the pendulum of fear and greed.

Yeah, true, true. Um I'm I'm not going to I'm not going to argue with that. Okay. The reason I mentioned this one is because buy low, sell high obviously seems like a timeless principle, but then a lot of people do end up trading momentum or breakouts which naturally relatively speaking is buying high. You're not waiting for the retracement, you're waiting for the breakouts. What is your thoughts on that style?

Um so there's a few thoughts. Number one, I if if anyone goes in and uses AI and looks at my background, what will happen is because of things that I've published over the years, it's very much going to have me on main reversion, systematic trader. Okay. Um I've become I haven't published as much o over the years. Um and so that was very much the way I traded. It was mean reversion. Um that goes all the way back to the 90s. Um systematic was there. um we always kept the portion of the money um anywhere from 10 to 20% for special situations that was there but it was mostly systematic um that was there to go along the way um I'm really not a big believer in lumping now mean are you a mean reversion trader are you trend following trader are you there's cases to be made for all of those um and you know I can keep going back to a couple of examples and glassware for example once on AI, you know, come came in came in. Obviously, optics were going to play a role. Um Corning glassware is an old company. It's been around for decades. My grandfather owned um Corn and Glassware. Um but if optics were going to play a major role, which they do, they play a major role in AI in the buildout, they were going to be the prime one of the prime winners sets there. By the time we got into corning, I think we're going $60 a share um on the options. I I believe I still have the the calls on them. It had already moved up significantly. So one looking at the charts, one could say, well that's a momentum trade. That's a trend following trade. That was a thematic trade. That was basically that's when we identified it u with the use of AI. We identified it, built a position on it. I wish I could say I was smart enough last August to say, "Yeah, I knew the stock was going to triple. It was going to go from 60 to 180." Of course I didn't. But the position was built and that became, you know, that that became an outside you know, return. Um, which we're still in. I mean, take a look at Micron. Micron was at a 100. Um, got in at 400 with the with the calls. You know, it hit a,000 the other day that was there. But from 100 to 400 25 years ago when the internet came around, there was no way in the world I would have been in that position. And you know when AI came about one of the things I did was what are all the mistakes that I made when I was trading during the internet days that was there. So I would buy buy a stock at six and it would open up literally open up the next day at 9 jumping up and down that's 50% take it off and then watch the stock run literally to 50 60 $70 a share. I did not want that to happen again and that's where the power law comes into play. The power law guides the venture capital industry. What they do is that, you know, the the um the venture capital firms that have been around for decades, they're making multiple take multiple positions that are there. Many of them go to zero. Okay, there's a handful that will do, let's say, okay, but where the real money is made is when they're there early stage for Google or for Amazon. Um, you know, now SpaceX with going public, some of the early investors that were there. um if they had sold out along the way, they left a lot of money on the table. You really need to be there. Just let it run. Let it run. Let it run. Okay.

I I want to also segment the reasons people would get into a trade, whether it's fundamental, technicals, etc. could either be camped into uh correlation based things that come to mind as just an indicator or a moving average or a Fibonacci versus causation. Now, it seems to me, especially a lot of the professionals I've spoken to, uh, they seemingly be in the correlation camp, especially for technicals, and I I always wonder why, but how would you segment correlation versus causation in the markets?

Yeah. Um, let's isolate it on the correlation side. Uh, it's a it's a big issue. Um, I I refer to it. I, you know, I gave you I gave you the um the framework that was there. Beneath that framework, there are some of the things that we do on a day-to-day basis that basically go on um including the measurements, you know, including the Greeks. But under correlation, next to it, it says the silent killer. Okay. People don't realize how things are correlated that that's there. I don't think the industry has done a very good job in showing correlations. Is still teaching it the way that it was taught in the 80s and 90s. It's found its way into textbooks. Um, but there is um the there is an immense amount of correlation that's in place at any given time. Um, so you bring up a really great point and I can um probably give an example of just how correlation just how extreme it can get. So in 2008 after Lehman busted that was there September October 2008 markets went into a freef fall. Okay great financial crisis occurred. So you have your ETFs and then you have your inverse ETFs. Good. Okay. If the ETF went up 3%, the inverse theoretically for the day should go down 3%. The ETF goes down 3%, the inverse should go up 3%. There were multiple days in a row and it would be good for the listeners. They can go back look at the charts there on the inverse. There were multiple days in a row that both the ETF and the inverse ETF dropped. Okay. And the reason for that everything became correlated to each other. It was a need for cash. There were margin calls. There was liquidation go going on all over the all over the place. And it was a grab for cash. Anything that had any type of liquidity, they were selling. Okay. And it offered phenomenal phenomenal opportunities for a short period of time. Um, you know, we got a chance to take advantage of it of a few of them, but um I have some friends that really were able to take advantage of it during that period of time. So correlations can seize can you know can really you know move together. One of the things that I teach and I've been teaching this now for 20 years is that traders should be looking at dynamic correlations. Okay.

Um and what that basically means is you know I I know still inherent to some degree correlations may be quoted on a two-year basis on a three-year basis. Well that's not right in my opinion. Okay. um they should be done on a on a shorterterm basis and then blended. So you might have a three-month correlation, a six-month correlation, and a 12-month correlation that blends together to to give the numbers. They end up using it more as a static indicator, meaning they set the date and that's it. It should be more dynamic than that and it should be shorterdated because things, you know, especially in the markets, we're one big global market. things can basically become correlated real fast, faster than ever.

With also correlation in mind, the the where I was in my head is why does a support level seem to work at times? Why does a Fibonacci does a 200 uh moving average pinpoint respect because there is there shouldn't be an underlying reason, but it does. So then it begs the question to me, is it just something that's self-fulfilling? Because if everyone believes, everyone acts on it, then it becomes which then does sound good. But then I also think well the market is supposed to be zero sum. So it's player versus player. So if everybody is acting one way and then it does happen, it's not zero sum. It's everybody won together. So then it breaks down this concept. So what is going on here?

Well, you know, we've um been publishing the 200 day moving average since um and quantifying it, you know, since I think it first did it in 1999. Um so you know back then technical analysis in that sense of using a 200 day moving average they didn't use it. I mean, it wasn't there. Um what's interesting is that um someone who was my co-founder in one one of the companies he was the head of trading for Fidelity Capital Markets. Um and it was rumored that in in the 90s so it was rumored that he and his 92 traders were moving up to 10% of the volume on the New York Stock Exchange. Okay. And he said within Fidelity and I don't have this this is basically just repeating a story that was there. They used to have a room a chart room okay all these fundamental analysts that that would be there everything was done through fun but they would they would know where the 200 day where the 50 was they had all the charts that that were up there. Now the marketplace knows those 200 days that's there. 50 is also another popular number that's there. Um, but now you're also playing on the other side. The quant hedge funds know this. High frequency knows this. Um they're going to be playing off that. Some of it is self-fulfilling. Yes. Um, but if one just simply traded off the 200 day moving average and looked back over a sustained period of time, um it doesn't net out to, you know, there's there's not alpha in there. I finally have a special offer to share with all of you from the US or my futures traders which is over 20% of the listeners of the show and that is Alpha Futures a leading futures prop firm that is working with trade of 8 and ninja trader that are compliant with CME regulations with the largest end of day balance draw down in the industry a 90% profit split and same day payout and with the most competitive pricing in the industry with accounts starting at just $79. On top of that, just by being a viewer of the show, you get up to 40% off all evaluations. So, why not get started with an evaluation right away? Trading $50,000, $100,000, and you already know the power of prop firms and larger capital. So, go ahead and use the link in the description or code toot for the best prices in the industry, plus the best discounts in the industry to make this a home run offer if you are a futures trader. Is it is it a correct belief of yours that you believe greater alpha/dislocation slash asymmetric opportunities exist when there is uh maximum greed or fear in the market?

Yeah, very much.

And how would you look to quantify? Would it be through technicals is how you understand greed and fear?

Yeah. So, if you take a look at the um when when I first published it, first started as a four period RSI and published it as a two-y period RSI. Um and I think it was back in 2003. That was a dead indicator. So, Wells Welder created it back in the 70s. You know, he he did some brilliant work that was back then, but it was a 14-day and I know a lot of charts still default

to 14 day. We couldn't quantify it. It just really couldn't quantify it.

Um, but one afternoon, I was working on my Bloomberg terminal. Blick just had a tremendous amount of data in there. Um, living on the west coast, so a lot of free time in the afternoon, markets closed at 1. And I started seeing that when I, as I was shortening the RSI period, I could start seeing pattern recognition. I could start seeing that this was beginning to move with the on a mean reversion basis, especially when these stocks and, but I should say especially spy, um, was above its 200-day moving average.

Okay. What I've ultimately learned from that is that those shorter-term RSIs, you take a look at the two, three, four period RSI, create our own RSI, Connor RSI. What they're really doing is they're measuring fear in the marketplace. Okay. What's happening is that one of two things. They're either selling it off, um, they're either selling the market off because they're concerned about some sort of event that that might be going on out there, or they're just pausing the buying. Okay. It's, it's portfolio managers will say, you know what, um, PPI is coming out, CPI is coming out, employment's coming out this week. Fed's making a decision tomorrow. I don't need to buy today. I'll wait till after the decision to do this, especially if they're buying in size and going to be holding positions. So that's in a sense measuring some sort of fear. They have a fear of that event. What will happen is again, because of the lack of buying, the RSI will sell itself, will will come down to some sort of levels. Um, so using RSI, very much is in my opinion, is less to do with technical analysis and more to do with the fact that it's, it's a measurement of fear.

Um, we've shown to be able to do it with VIX, um, 30-day VIX, if you take a look at the shorter-term VIX that that's out there. Um, but also, uh, three-month VIX, six-month VIX gives tells as to what the what what portfolio managers and how they're positioning themselves, um, that are in place. Though those are ways to measure fear, and then there's other traders out there that basically can put on CNBC and they've been doing it long enough and they know that there's fear that's there.

>> What is the mechanics of the, what is the mechanics of the RSI that you created, the Connor RSI?

>> Yeah. So, it's using, it's, um, it has, um, without going into the details because it's in the public domain. Anybody, um, anybody can look it up. Um, we made it available for free, um, to be able to do it there. So, you'll see the three components that that that that's there. Um, and for those, um, who are using Bloomberg and, um, a handful of other platforms have it built in there, they'll be able to, they'll be able to use it.

>> Cool.

>> What, what is the way that you're generating trade ideas? So I know we're talking about, um, you're looking for asymmetric gains, you're looking for thesis, thesis, or revolutionary technology. And then let's say you've generated a trade idea, uh, with a thesis behind it. How would you execute upon it?

>> Yeah. Um, number one, it's important not to overpay for the options. Okay. So it, it really is going to, um, you know, the, the second layer after that is after the decision is made is how are they pricing the options? Okay. Um, you know, the, the advantages you have that when we're holding positions, I'm a big believer in time horizon diversification. Okay. So if I've got a, a thematic in place, I might buy a six-month or one-year and a two-year, hypothetically, that that that's there. Um, if I'm doing a shorter-term trade, especially things on the short side, I have to be more precise in making sure I don't overpay for those options that that are there. So implied volatility is going to play a big role. Um, and if I can get fair pricing, that's there. Um, certainly, you know, want to take the trade. If something is just, let's say your earnings are coming out tomorrow on the company and the implied volatility is going to be spiked, um, I'm not going to take that trade. I'm not going to overpay to that to that degree. So, it really is looking, um, the trader should be looking at, am I paying fair value for this option? Is it overpriced? Um, and to what degree is it overpriced? If you're looking out a couple of years, one to two years, it's okay to pay a little bit more. Okay. On a shorter-term basis, um, probably you, you're putting it, once putting themselves in the hole. They don't want to be overpaying for a volatility.

>> With the idea that you're looking to hold this for a long time and you're looking for huge asymmetric gain, I, I guess the exact execution is not, is not going to make a difference. So you, you would just rather get in rather than wait for complicated intraday models to get in.

>> Absolutely. Yeah. You know, um, I, again, if the option is fair value, it's, it's, you know, that position is going to get, um, it's going to get put on. You know, has it also has to get filled. Some of these positions, there's widespreads. Um, you know, what type of size can you put in. Sometimes you have to work the trade, which means it may take a couple of days to get the position on. But again, um, you know, probably the best suggestion that I can make to everybody, make sure you're not overpaying for the option, especially on a shorter-term basis.

>> Okay. The next one, number five, is applying first and especially second and third order thinking. So, this would be different to first principles.

>> Yeah. So, um, as you know, as we were talking before we got going here, um, let's go back and use AI for, for example. Um, let's go into 2023. So first order was going to be, you have to own the semiconductors. Okay. So it's going to be Nvidia, it's going to be Taiwan Semiconductors, it's going to be Advanced Micro Devices. You, you, you can go through, um, the first order companies that that are there. There are usually no edges in first order thinking. Okay. Things that are basically obvious that's there, that that that's there, unless you're really, really early on it. Um, we're pretty much all wired to think in first order. Okay. Where you start getting edges in place, where the, where the potential alpha comes into place, is if, if you're immediately able to move into second order thinking. Okay? And Wall Street traders have gotten better and better at this. Okay? 20 years ago, this type of thinking was usually a handful of hedge funds would would would know to automatically do this. Um, but second order thinking is, okay, after you have your first order companies that's there, let's say the three I mentioned, what else is required if you really do believe back in 2023 that AI is going to play itself out? What's required? Power is required. Data centers were going to, are required. So that second order thinking basically allowed us to get into, um, I say us, myself, get into positions that were there, um, that were in power-related companies, um, that were in, um, data center companies. And you know, you may ask, you know, how do you come up with all this knowledge? How do you come up with all this information? Um, knowing how to properly prompt inside the AI, AI is able to do this. Now, this back in '23, I think we were on GPT3.5, you know, and now it's 5.5, you know, we use extended pro. Um, but it was able to basically identify companies that I, nor even if I had a research team, would have taken us weeks to find, able to do it instantly. Um, Verdiv is an example that just keeps running and running and running. Genova is is another one. Um, those were identified back in 2023. So, that second order thinking is a good way to be able to do that. Okay. When you get into third order thinking, that gets even harder. Okay. And third order thinking can be the suppliers to the suppliers. Okay. Um, and that is, um, you usually have to wait that out. If you're doing good third order thinking, you're usually going to have to wait that out. We're waiting for the marketplace to realize, oh yeah, this company's going to benefit. The company's basically showing, they'll come out a quarter or two quarters down the line, and they'll show this rapid growth that that's there. Maybe an expansion in the gross margins. Um, the way I primarily use it is, if this is going to win, meaning if A is going to win, who's going to be on the other side? Who's going to lose? Okay. And that's really where on the short side, those provide great shorting opportunities, especially if you're there early to be able to do it.

>> Would you apply first, second, and third order on the contrarian side, too? If, if AI is going to win, who's going to lose? And then first, second, third order all the way on the losing side, too?

>> Yeah. On the losing side, it, it really became pretty obvious. It, it was fairly obvious. Um, and in a few cases, I was way too early. Okay? And I'll, I'll share that story with you because it's, um, you're, you're, you're often times, if you're correct, you're usually early with it. Okay? But on the, on the third, on the, on the third order side, there were certain things that were there. It was quite obvious that as GPT and a few others were bringing out the images and the graphics and things like that, companies like Fiverr were going to get hit. Okay? That was obvious. But I went through a couple of option cycles, um, not making money on Fiverr because they were, you know, the marketplace hadn't caught up, and then all of a sudden it did. Um, I believe it might have had the 30 puts. It was somewhere in the 30 range. Stock, um, when we exited was at $11 a share. Okay. They can't compete. Um, you know, that many of those services that they were advertising on the Fiverr platform have been obsoleted. They could be done by for free. Um, others were, were on the education side. Another one is on the legal side. Legal Zoom was was low-hanging fruit. It was quite obvious that many of the, um, baseline services that Legal Zoom was doing, AI was able to do it and do it, do it for free. That stock has gotten hit very hard. Um, the one I was wrong on early on, okay, Duolingo. So, are you familiar with Duolingo? Okay, great company. And there I was looking at Duolingo. Um, and I could see that even I was able, I'm not a programmer. Even I was able to program the AI to teach me how to speak another language. And I'm looking at this and I'm saying to myself, they're dead. They, you know, most of these education companies were cashed, had gone down. Udemy had gone down, um, Chegg had gotten hit and got hit first. Chegg was the first, um, one that that was there. I felt Duolingo could miss. So, and this is the difference between, you know, going in, having a short position, having protection in place, and not. Um, I think I had, I shorted at 175 with puts, and the stock proceeded to move up to $500 this year. And as I was going, you know, my options expired worthless. And as the stock is going higher and higher and higher, I'm saying to myself, what am I missing? Really, what am I missing here? Um, again, I work pretty closely with the AI. AI is basically dug in. As they're not missing nothing. You're really, they can't compete. Um, I'm not going to pick a top on something that was just keep racing and racing and racing, but ultimately it broke. Um, and it lost a couple hundred points pretty quickly. Was able to put on a short position that that was there. Um, meaning on, on puts, rolled them a couple of times. I still think I have a little bit of position in Duolingo, but the stock is trading at a 100. It got under $100 a share. Um, they're providing services that can be done by AI for free. That's number one. I understand, you know, they, they, they do a lot of AI that's in there. The gamification is great. The community is great. They had brilliant marketing in Brazil that, you know, they did on TikTok and that really brought on a tremendous amount of business for them. Um, but I'm not looking to take Duolingo to zero. What I'm essentially doing is looking at it, if AI is going to win, if AI can provide these free services, who can't compete against that? Um, now today, many of those stocks have sold off significantly. Earlier this year, we saw it on the software companies that's there, and they're still trying to figure it out. You know, we're, I'm, you know, also in that camp. Who is going to win on the software, on the software side, like who's going to be able to transition on the agenic side, and who really is just providing services and processes that are replaced that, you know, cloud just dropping, you know, 55, bring out a cable, fable, you know, can't make it there, you know.

>> Well, with AI able to replicate and replace, in the case like you're saying with Duolingo, the idea makes sense. But then the, the things that are hard to quantify is, as you were saying, community, brand, marketing, um, the entertainment element of it, gamification. How would you consider these things? And or is the philosophy, well, I'm not trying to make it go to zero, so I'm just trying to get a, a repricing?

>> Yeah. Having been doing this for 45 years, I've yet to meet a short seller who was successful waiting it to go to zero. So, they may exist out there, but, um, we don't wait for it to, to go to, um, to zero. I'm not taking those pieces into place. What I'm really looking for, it's a great question that you just asked. I'm looking for waning, waning demand. I'm looking for waning demand. I'm looking for demand that basically they're not going to be able to maintain their growth.

>> And over time, um, you know, many of these companies were growth stories. If they can't grow, the market punishes that. Um, and if there's going to be less and less users over time coming in, and again, I'm looking at it over a longer-term period of time. It doesn't mean that they're going to go out of business, but at the end of the day, waning demand is not a place that momentum buyers or growth buyers are going to, you know, run up a price of, of a stock.

>> What is the art of timing a thesis, um, with the idea of mining? I don't want to tie up capital because it's an opportunity cost of not deploying it elsewhere.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Um, so I do have, um, one fairly simple indicator that basically gets me into these positions. I'm looking for price to basically tell me, okay, they're beginning to move out of there. Okay. What I'm never going to do is, I'm never going to try to pick a top. Okay. I want some price confirmation that that that will be there. Um, so that price confirmation is basically, okay, this potentially they're beginning to unload the stock. They're beginning to move it out, and that ends up giving the signal to be able to do it. Another thing can just do it, um, if it's on a watch list, company comes out with earnings, and basically you start seeing the demand waning that that's there. They're not going to come out and just say, we're going to lose to AI. You know, these are run by very smart individuals. The publicly traded companies, you know, especially the S&P 500 companies. Um, those people run their companies. They don't get those positions unless they've succeeded in their life. They come up with solutions. The board of directors are constantly talking about this. Um, but at the end of the day, if they can't compete, can't compete against free, for example. If there's waning demand that's going to come in there, it's going to show up in the numbers somewhere in the numbers, and during that earnings thing, you'll see, you'll see it there. The market is pretty smart. The market will price it down fairly quickly, and that will often trigger the opportunity. It's already gone down to a degree. It triggers the opportunity though that the selling may continue. We saw this in the software stocks over the last five months.

>> Okay. So the next part of the framework, um, is long, short-term protection. How would you like me to unpack these with you?

>> How would you, what's best for the listeners?

>> Well, the, the bridge that I'm thinking as we're going through this conversation to help cross towards the audience is most traders are going to be day trading, and they're going to be most, uh, I mean, the viewers are going to be primarily technically driven. So we're actually on the opposite side of the spectrum with yourself. So either we can also talk about your, your beliefs on what, what do you think of this? Is it worthwhile? Because a lot of people are also not finding success in doing so. So we could either ignore it as a topic and then keep going into your strengths, or we could go into, okay, what are they doing right or wrong here?

>> Yeah. Whatever you think is best. I, I think let's touch on it just, just to hear your thoughts and expertise because I'm sure at some point you've considered it, or you've probably seen a lot of people thrive or fail in trying to master day trading with technicals.

>> Yeah. Um, so I come from, um, my background was, I, I got hired at Merrill Lynch out of school, um, and finished up my career on that side at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette at DLJ, which is just absolutely phenomenal. Got bought by First Boston and then Credit Suisse. So I got an opportunity to really learn how to play the game from, from some of the best. That was very fortunate to get hired by those two firms. Um, when I came out, it was basically, um, when I came into the market, I think the Dow was at 700. Okay. Couldn't have timed it better. All right. So, um, we were, we were compensated quite well. Okay. Um, and good lifestyle. Um, able to live in good places. Moved out to, to Malibu, California before it became crazy. So across the street from the beach. It was a, you know, very comfortable lifestyle. Um, I don't come from that upbringing. I come from a, you know, traditional, you know, middle-class upbringing that that that's there. Um, to go from that to be able to move over to, there's no more income coming in. I went out, started my own private partnership, plus I had separately, the futures were traded separately. That was there to supplement my income. Um, the futures trading was there, that was mostly day trading, almost all day trading. Okay. Um, and I had a bread-and-butter setup that would, that was there that I pretty much used over and over and and over again. So over time, that bread-and-butter setup, um, the edges have dissipated. If I try to do it today, you know, others have figured it out that that that was there. Um, so day trading is a, is a hard game for myself. I found it to be mentally hard, that was there. Okay. Um, and I remember after the first year, it was a good year. It was, it was successful. Um, it needed to be successful. Had two children at the time, you know, now I have three. Um, got a great lifestyle, and there's no income coming in. This really has to work. But I remember we hosted a New Year's Eve party, um, that year, and we had neighbors that that that came over, and I'm sitting at the kitchen table and I'm saying to myself, you are the oldest 34-year-old on the planet. Okay. Because we were trading right into the close. There were things that were going right right into the close. Um, and it was just, I'm not going to do this for another 30 years. Um, type of thing. So day trading, you know, some, someone, um, other people that I know who have done it for decades, they're wired to be able to do that. Okay. So, one really has to know, you know,

>> What kind of a temperament or personality type does it take to thrive in that arena?

>> I don't know. I've seen, um, so many people succeed at it, and I've seen even more people not succeed at it. Um, usually it, it comes down to one thing. They, they usually have greater risk controls that are in place. I, you know, you, you know, I know you're a big believer in this, that, um, from what, in reading about you, you're a big believer that if there's not an edge in place, I don't, you know, nothing is really going to matter.

>> 100% spot on. Very much agree.

>> So they have some sort of edge in place. What may not necessarily be the entry that they have in place, it will be some sort of exit strategy that's superior out there.

>> Okay. Um, we worked with, um, one gentleman, got a chance to see him trade live as a futures trader that was there. He had a systematic entry that was in place, and then a discretionary exit. Okay. We went in, we back-tested his systematic entry that was in place. He entered every position in the hole, meaning he had a negative edge. Okay. Yet, there he was, year after year, at least the seat on the exchange that was there, is a year after year putting in, um, substantial performance. What was happening is he had his, his exit strategy, which was more discretionary, was superior that was there. So that's where his edge is placed. He might might have thought his edge was on the entry.

>> I find the tension between edge and psychology very curious because prior, my beliefs of psychology is something that's overspoken about and it's usually a scapegoat because you don't have an edge, but it's easier to blame your psychology. But as I've gotten older, I've realized that a lot of it ties back to psychology. The reason I say this is because I think I would have a hard time, uh, interacting with the markets like yourself because I think I am a little bit impatient in the sense of if I've got this huge idea and I've tested and I've put a lot of time and effort to generate this idea and then I place it, I want to kind of know if I'm right or wrong soon as opposed to waiting months, even even years, which kind of caters then for me to the instant feedback loop of, um, day trading.

>> But then the other side of it is, uh, discretionary on profit taking. So this is something I used to do, and then I started to realize, what are the, what are the things that I'm targeting? And there can be many technical levels on a screen. You can have 10 lines on a chart, and all of them have a reason. How do I decide? Well, then discretion, but discretion can just be something like fear and greed masking as a good idea, which then became the problem. So then I tried to make everything as systematic and data-driven as possible. What is your, uh, interaction with your own psychology, and then fundamentals, technicals, and everything else with trade ideation?

>> Yeah. I, I very, I very much relate to you because the majority of my career was spent as a mean reversion trader. Okay. And the sweet spot of mean reversion is that three to five day, you know, three to five trading day, um, window that's there. Um, we've quantified it. We've quantified it for decades. We've created, you know, um, published a number of strategies. For as many as we published, we probably have five to 10, um, more. For every one, there's five to 10 more that we haven't published, um, for whatever reason that's there. So you get this instant feedback, um, on a mean reversion basis. Is basically, you know, it, it's there. Um, this type of style of trading where, um, a power law trading, where you're waiting for things to play themselves out, and one never knows, it just doesn't happen overnight. Um, early on, it just, you, if you're committed to it, which, um, you know, obviously I'm committed to it, um, you learn to live through these times where there's going to be drawdowns. There's going to be periods of times that there's going to be, um, going to be periods of times that basically, you know, maybe make a little, lose a little. That will be there. Um, just coming out of last quarter's earnings, um, it was amazing how many positions I was in on the wrong side of earnings. Okay? And even to the point, it got so ridiculous. I actually texted my assistant, who doesn't know anything about trading. I actually texted, I told her, I said, I cannot believe how many times, you know, I've been on the wrong side, and the returns are good for the, I'm, you know, really comfortable where they are, um, and they're on target of where my target is for what I'm hoping to achieve for for the year, yet it was earnings after earnings. I, maybe told her this at about 3:30 in the afternoon. Last 30 minutes, I'm, I'm trading there. 4:01 comes, company comes up with earnings, boom, it just gets crushed again. And I said, consistent as hell. And it's like, you know, you, you learn to play it out. Um, it's, it's basically, um, it's, it, early on, it's hard, but if you're doing it for a period of time and you believe in it, it gets easier and easier and easier. And it really is nice, um, when it's right. All it takes is a few trades to basically play themselves out to be able to do that. Um, there's another part to that. Um, when it's on, so, um, I had this happen last year, one of the quarters, probably 65 to 70% of the positions I was in, wrong side of earnings. Okay. Um, the next quarter, probably 65 to 70% was on the right side of earnings. That that's there. It tends to balance, it tends to balance itself out. Um, so it just, you know, it's a belief in, in the methodology itself.

>> Do you think it's more important to build, there's many ways to make a million dollars. There's many ways to find edge. So therefore, is it more important to find an edge or a style that's congruent with your personality, or it's find something that makes sense, uh, theoretically, and then your psychology can be molded around it?

>> The first. Absolutely. The first.

>> Does that therefore imply that there is a bit of rigidity in what is your own temperament and psychology? And yes, you could put in frameworks and systems and meditations and whatever, but it's not usually going to be a needle mover.

>> Yeah. Um, the, the, the wiring, we, I, I've worked with a number of traders, you know, along the way. Um, a number of floor traders, both from the New York Stock Exchange and also from, um, the CBOE, or the Chicago exchanges, would hire me to mentor them, to teach them how to trade off, off the floor. Very much enjoyed, um, you know, doing that for, for a number of years, um, and to see the success, a number of them, you know, went on to have, um, that that was there, but they all had different temperaments. They had all had their different things that that go through. Um, there is no right or wrong temperament that that that's there. One needs to know themselves. You know, for myself, it very much fit being reversion trading, very much fit for me, um, in the '90s, in the 2000s, um, and, you know, even in, in the decade after, it became, as I started building out this framework that we're talking about over here, um, I became more and more comfortable with it. Okay. Um, was able to basically apply to take strategies that I had ever published before and then bring it in. Um, and then you just learn to get better and better and better at it. Um, it, it, it doesn't matter how many years you've been doing something, you know, especially with trading. Um, I wake up every day as day one. I need to learn something new. I need to get better. I need to get better. Um, and I don't need to get better for financial reasons. That's there. That's the way I'm wired. Um, and with the markets always adapting, I think it's even more important that people are just constantly learning and learning and learning. Um, and the final part to that is studying things, for example, that were published 20 or 30 years ago, or learning things from floor brokers that basically were buying on the bid and selling on the offer, and is still inherent being taught by the brokerage firms and being taught by others. I know they're well-meaning, but I don't believe someone's going to put in consistent substantial returns year after year after year from strategies that have essentially been obsoleted or been arbed out.

>> Mhm. This is an important point. Uh, I often, a lot of episodes we haven't published, and it's because I get this real feeling of like, you had your golden era and now you're living off off that with your public reputation. But then this also is curious to me because you do see certain principles that are timeless, certain technicals that you, people are still trading and believing in that were published decades ago. Um, and now even, it was a question I had later on, but we can bring it now, which is, you have like a pendulum between efficient market and inefficient market. And as we approach efficiency, uh, there's less or it's more effort to get alpha, and therefore people don't put the effort in, and that swings the pendulum the other way, and then there's a lot of alpha and XYZ. But then as we move towards AGI and, and as a lot of people are harnessing AI, alpha would become more armed out and harder to find. So I then do wonder, what is the future of the markets? And especially these timeless technicals that everyone's trading, what happens, what happens then?

>> Yeah. Yes. Good questions, and you've got a couple of questions in there. So, um, in, um, take, take the first part of your question. Read that again, because we can do this one, one piece, one step at a time.

>> Uh, yeah, we can start off with efficient and inefficient market as a pendulum. Is this an accurate way to view the market?

>> Um, so this is the advantage that retail or independent traders have here today, um, that didn't exist before. What's happened is it's a very dynamic industry. The industry is constantly adapting, constantly bringing out new product sets there. When I started trading, um, I think options traded on a quarterly basis. Um, you know, you, it was, um, you know, then monthly, weekly, and, you know, now we, we have our dailies. Um, there was no such thing as leveraged ETFs. That, you know, the market is continuously, or the, the, um, industry is continuously innovating, um, to be able to do there with that. And this got brought on, especially thanks to Robinhood. Co played a role in it, that it brought in millions. And I think Robinhood's platform is somewhere between 27 and 30 million traders alone in there. Um, a lot of retail traders that may be very intelligent. They could have advanced degrees. They could be doctors. You, you go through the whole thing, but they don't have market intelligence. They don't have the experience for people who have been doing this for many years, of people, you know, who, who, who are trained to be to be able to do this. Um, there are a number of retail products that are essentially been brought out there. Um, and those retail products provide opportunities. Um, you're really trading the, these are products or markets that the institutions and the hedge funds can't trade in because there's not enough liquidity in them, um, or won't trade them for whatever reason. The risk managers won't, won't allow it. Hedge fund industry has changed significantly. When I was doing it back in the '90s, um, if you walked in with 30% returns a year, it was like, that's good. You're the 10th person we've seen today that you know has done 30%. Um, that doesn't exist today. Today, what they, what, if you take a look at Millennium, you take a look at, at, um, Citadel, take a look at 72, what they're doing is they're putting in 1% on average, one to one and a quarter percent a month, but it's consistent money all the way through. If you take a look at the risk parameters that's there, they pull money pretty quickly from the, from the pods that they have in place. Teams that will be in place, they'll give them a certain amount of money. Um, if they draw down, they'll, depending upon the firm, they'll cut it in half, and if they draw down for any sustained period of time, they're gone. It just basically gets, gets replaced. So, there, they may be amongst the best risk managers in the world. Okay. Um, if you have the ability to invest in a Millennium or Citadel, 72, there's a number of these firms. What that leaves open is, because they're so risk adverse, they can't, for example, trade this power law strategy that's there. Okay? They can't go through months where there'll be a months where it won't make money. They can't go through months. The Sharpe is going to, you know, the Sharpe, um, is going to punish the upside moves. There's outside months that that occur over there. So, it's going to be come high, but they're answering to sovereign wealth. They're answering to pension funds. And what do the pension funds want? They want that 11, 12, 13% net of fees year after year after the year. No one loses their job allocating money to these firms that are there. That provides the independent trader with the opportunity to go places that the hedge funds can't go to. That's number one. Number two, with all the many millions of newer traders that have come in, they don't have the same expertise and knowledge. This conversation that we're having right now, they wouldn't even begin to understand probably two-thirds of it. So, um, they'll pro, they, they provide mispricing all over the place. You could see it in the option markets. Um, there is, there, there were, um, a couple of Thursdays ago, there, there was volatility that was floating around out there, and you can see from the size, it's a retail, retail orders that were there. 100% V selling for 500. Okay. Um, and I will not take that trade unless if I get hit in this trade, will this mean that something else in the portfolio will flourish from it? Um, but when you see things like that of retail traders putting in orders at 500% fall when when it should be priced at 100 fall, right? Um, maybe a simple example is that you have a piece of property, it's worth $100,000, and someone says to you, I'll give you half a billion dollars for it. Okay, you're probably going to say, "Done." Um, to be able to do that. So, I could go through, there's an endless list of them. There's inefficient ETFs that are out there. AI can help people find those inefficient ETFs. Um, there's ETFs we were talking about before that are built to go to zero. Um, we published that back in 2009, 2010. VXX, UVXY, UIX, take a look at Boil or Natural Gas that's there. Um, now take a look at the many 2x futures related, um, cryptos that that's there. BITX, ET, which is which is Bitcoin 2x Bitcoin futures. Um, ETHU, 2X, Ethereum. Go through the list that are there. They're structurally built to go to zero. They're rolling option, they're rolling futures on a monthly basis. Um, they're structurally inefficient. And really, what you want to do, market makers are smart. They, they price that into the option price. Ideally, you want to have some sort of indicator that will be able to trigger when can I be entering this? Where's it safe to enter this? And you just really want to be there. If you take a look at BITX and what's today, June 11th, is, is that right? Today's June 11th, I believe.

>> 10th.

>> 10th? Is it 10th?

>> 11th. Sorry, you're correct. Yes.

>> So, today's June 11th. Um, if you take a look at the decline that BITX has had over the past couple of months, um, it's just been going down and down. Now, obviously, Bitcoin has been going down, but also they've got a structurally inefficient. You're getting this tailwind that they have to, um, they have to sell low and buy high month after month after month while it's in contango.

>> The, the conclusion I'm getting from this is, let's say the institutions, for, for better or worse, are incentivized to be mediocre, just get the 10, 11, 12%, and you're not really rewarded for being or chasing alpha beyond this. Therefore, you leave pockets of inefficiency, and therefore the edge for a retail trader is actually in, uh, where you trade, not how you trade.

>> Yeah. I, I don't know if I would classify them as being mediocre. Um, you know, one, one of the funds that we were in was a low volatility fund. It was, it was built that way. I'll tell you, it, it was, it was harder to do 7, 8, 9, 10% returns here and make money most months. Okay. And have a high Sharpe ratio. Let's say a Sharpe ratio of two.

>> Okay. I found it harder for doing that for many years versus what I'm doing now, which, um, you know, the returns are, you know, knock on wood, at least up through today, significantly higher on an annual basis. Um, so they're not, they know what they're doing. Okay. They're providing a phenomenal service. They're running, you know, brilliant people, they're running.

>> It seems paradoxical, but why is it harder to make consistent but less gains rather than consistently over decades making larger gains?

>> Yeah, it's, it's, um, there's no room for those losses that will occur there along the way. So, someone is trading on a, on a mean reversion basis. Okay. Um, if you take a look at any of the books that I've published, and many of those strategies, um, you know, continue to hold up, they got to be done on a trade-by-trade basis. Some people have moved them into a portfolio, which is, no matter how many times I said in the books, these are not portfolios. These are individual trades. Um, you know, they still run on a historical basis, and now running three decades, and even up to four decades, 75, 80, 85% correct in price, that's there. What happens though to the 10, 15, 20% that are not right? Okay. So, um, you're not making a lot on the mean reversion trades, but you're making it often. There's a, a lot to be there. Um, it's what happens when there's a sharp market selloff. August 2011 is an example where mean reversion, um, got hit pretty hard during that period of time. How do you protect from there? Um, and maybe it, it's just tied into, um, decades of experience. Maybe it's just tied into knowledge. Maybe it's tied into the fact that I have no one to answer to, just myself. Um, but I do find it easier, psychologically easier, to be putting in much higher returns than doing that, you know, than doing that, uh, 8 to 12%, um, and keeping that Sharpe ratio ideally above two.

>> Would you argue that technicals, if, if you correctly find an edge, is the best place to find the consistent gains?

>> Restate that, please.

>> Right now, when we're discussing the asymmetrical gain and the kind of outsized returns that you're able to achieve, is because you're betting on the right things, uh, with as the world changes. But if I was to think, how can I achieve, you know, 1% a month consistently for decades? Would the best way to do that be strictly technicals?

>> No, it would be strictly money management. It would be how you structure your trades and the, um, the, you, there are not many good books out there that basically talk about structuring trades. It's a boring topic. You put on CNBC all day, and, um, you know, no disrespect to the many guests that they have on CNBC. I know a handful of them, and I've actually worked with one of them for a number of years. Um, but CNBC is basically, you know, which stocks are going up. They're focusing stock, stock, stock. If someone was sitting there and saying, "Well, I'm going to have the stock and then basically go into option land on how they're going to structure that trade, and then how they're going to put in hedges in place," that doesn't fit the narrative. So, there are not many, um, books that are out there. You asked me earlier if I ever thought of writing any more books that were there. Um, that's an interesting topic to me. Um, another interesting topic is correlations. Um, that that would be there. But to answer your question, it would absolutely be done through the structuring of the trades. It's done on the money management side, as long as there's an edge in place.

>> Mhm. The other part of the earlier question that I had, which is how there's two parts, but the first part I want to get into is technicals that don't seem to expire when everything else in the world has changed.

>> Tell me what you're thinking.

>> I lean towards, um, two things. One is that, uh, the self-fulfilling thing that we mentioned earlier. Number two is, um, from a retail lens, it seems like everything is about technicals. Maybe it's because just when we search online how to trade, these are the things that often come up. But when I look at the professionals that I've spoken to, technicals is often an afterthought. And even when I, I proposed it to you, you're not focused on the entry. Yeah. It's just I got to get in somewhere at the right time, but plus or minus a bit is not going to make a difference on the net gains I'm going to make. So then there isn't time or effort or energy spent there. Plus the idea that everyone is following similar things just makes it a strong, strong tide.

>> Yeah. Um, so you basically stating that technicals may play the least important role in things.

>> Uh, to a, to a professional or institutional guy. Yes. But they, it doesn't mean it's right or wrong. It just means they have the more significant capital that influences the market. But yes, I would say that.

>> Yeah. I, I, I agree with that. Um, and I've agreed with that since the 1990s. Um, I didn't become a CMT, and I know the people at CMT, they're good people, that's there. There are a number of CMTs, you know, they, they, they do a good job. Um, for me, as I began the process, um, I registered, was going to become a CMT. Um, and when they're putting patterns in place, okay, whether it's trend lines or head and shoulders or all the things, you know, that, that, that we all originally learned from when we first started, that's there. If I couldn't quantify it, I had issues with it. Okay. Um, because it, it just, for me, at that time, I needed quantification in place. I needed to see statistical evidence. Um, and, you know, today, this is much more common. In the '90s, it was basically looked down upon that that was there. People were doing this, the quants weren't known as quants, they were known as system vendors. Nothing worse to be called than than a system vendor. Um, but thanks to MIT, thanks to especially to Andy Low, professor Andy Low, and he's done tremendous, you know, the first generation of financial engineers, the first generation of quants were born, you know, out of MIT, and, you know, very much thanks, thanks to Andy. Um, so for technicals, for me, RSI, for example, is a technical indicator. Okay. Will be lumped under a technical indicator. Um, but as we were talking about earlier, for me, it's a fear indicator. It basically is a measurement of fear in, in the marketplace, and then it could be quantified. That's what we did with Connor RSI. Connor RSI, um, was the first, and it still may remain the only technical indicator that has quantified results behind that, and people, um, they can find it online. We made it free. We made it available so they can download it. They can see the formula. They can go back and do the testing with it. Um, you know, again, for me, it really does provide, um, with that said, I have friends who are quite successful, um, been doing it for decades, um, and their tech, they're, they're chart readers, they read charts, um, they'll read something that, that's there, um, and have been able to stay in the game and done quite well for themselves for, for many, many, many years. Um, so I'm not taking anything away from chart reading. It doesn't work for me, you know, for, you know,

for myself.

Reading between the lines here, I'm I'm assessing that technicals for you is more a representation of human psychology and therefore as we trend towards more AI utility in the market, will that be eroded or will that still remain ever present because it's still a human deploying an AI generated idea?

No. Um, if you want to segue this into the AI, it might it might be helpful, but I'll, you know, I'll leave it up to you if we want to segue this into the AI.

I think it's important.

Okay.

Yes.

Okay. So, there's a there's a few things with the AI and, you know, as we were speaking before we got got on the air. Um, so I saw CH EPT as I mentioned December 2022. I said, okay, this is going to change things. I used it as a knowledge base that that that was there. Um, I don't program. I don't haven't had the need to program. My director of research was literally the senior uh developer of Excel in the 1990s. His name is Cesar Alvarez. So he's brilliant um that was there. So I never had really a need been able to surround myself with good good programmers, gentlemen that basically you know the company um that that is handling RA and building out the AEI um and the gentleman who leads it for them is doing a phenomenal job. Okay, I don't need to get involved with that. I just see the end result and see you know um you know want to make sure that it's it's working.

On the AI side where people stand today is that most people don't understand that the output from the AI number one is going to be biased. I'll get to that second. Okay. Number two it's very much dependent upon the model that they're on. Okay. And I'll use chatbt for an example. That's where most people start. Um, it changed the us the UI. Interesting overnight. But up until now there are seven different levels of chat GPT. Okay. You had instant that was there and that was free to everybody still is. Um, you have the thinking models and the thinking models was the 5 series and that was a big advance that that they had over there. That was a big breakthrough that they had within the thinking models. there's a I think it's called um there's a there's a fast thinking then they it defaults to a standard then that's one that's extended and then there's the the highest level that's there then if you pay $200 a month and I strongly suggest that anybody who's taking doing this for trading and taking this seriously pay the $200 a month the best $200 Alman also announced earlier today they may lower the pricing so we we'll see if that plays itself out but within there there's two other levels that's on the um That's on the pro version. So there's um the highest level is pro extended. Okay. Pro extended. Extended is usually going to take between 12 to up to 20 minutes to get an answer to to be able to do that. Um what we published I presented this a couple of weeks ago. I put it um that there was with the group that I work with is that was able to show and this is um the AI basically showing it at what grade level. So you know for those who are not in the United States in the United States the grade level is you know kindergarten through grade 1 through 12 is high school then university or college is another four years masters would be another two years PhD would be four to five years that's there okay people who are using GPT instant which is the free version are getting the equivalent on a trading question I specifically kept this to trading okay are getting the answer the equivalent of what an eighth or a ninth grader okay, would be answering. It's there for the masses there. It very much is there. Um, do you want to trade? Do you want to put your money at risk with an answer from an eighth grader, right? Um, you get into the thinking models and as you go up, it keeps moving up. It will move up. But even at the highest level of the thinking model, what it's doing is it's giving to you as a first or a second year finance college student. that's there. Again, at the end of the day, do you really want to be, you know, they have some knowledge, but do they have that type of knowledge that's there? You move it into the extended, okay, into the pro version. Um, and the highest level of the pro is the extended version. What you're beginning to get is you're beginning to get answers at a PhD level. Okay? So, now think of where we are. Same question. Ask the exact same question. Depending upon which of the models you're going to get answered by an eighth grader or you're going to get answered by someone with a PhD. Okay, that's the first part.

Okay, where most people look at and use AI today, this will likely change, but where most people have been using it is they use it to ask questions. They use it as a chatbot that that's there. Ask a question, get get an get an answer that's over there. What AI does better than giving answers, it's a better falsifier. And we as traders want truths. We want to we want to get to absolute truths that that that's there. Okay. A lot of the books that have been written out there, there's a lot of things that are basically discussed. There's a lot of things that have been outdated. There's a lot of things that have been armed out. We want to get to the truth. Simply putting in ask that same question and telling it to red team reed. Just red team it, which is the most basic falsification. very very basic falsification immediately lifts the cognition to a much higher level. Everything jumps up a few grades that were there. Okay, that's the beginning. And then just keep using it. You know, you you were mentioning the way you were using it before we got on the air. Um and Claude, you're using multiple levels of falsification that's there. Um what that's doing is that's getting better and better answers, getting better and better truths. Um, at the end of the day, even if it goes to AGI, this is where domain experience comes in. Um, on the trading side, I have the advantage on that. 45 years, been able to work with some of the best and, you know, gotten to know, got a chance to write a book with arguably one of the best traders, meaning Linda Rashki um, out there. Linder and I still remain in touch. Um, that's my domain. I have domain knowledge. I can go back in my memory into things that I did in the 80s, 90s, you know, I can piece things there together. Um, that's an advantage I have on the trading side. Um, if I came in from another ask that same ask ask basically a question on something that I don't have domain knowledge, I'm going to get an answer that's likely going to be a ninth or a tenth grader and I'm not going to know the difference. I have no domain experience. I encourage people run with what you know. Okay? And that really is if you're going into trading for example, trade if you don't come from a a finance background, if you come from an entrepreneurial background, sold their business knows a certain a certain industry in place. They have such a competitive advantage over the rest of the world. They know things inside they they have unconscious competence. They have the highest level of mastery that's there. Um, and if it's in real estate or no matter what the industry is, whether it's biotech, real estate, I go through any of these and I've worked one-on-one with with a number of these people and most of us take for granted, well, if I know it, everyone else knows it. And, you know, very much they can go far far deeper having that domain knowledge. So, number one, get your bottle down. Spend the $200. It's worth it. Um, number two, use it to get to the truth. Okay, red team at a minimum. Okay, and then GPT will give other suggestions to be able to advance the red team. Um, and then number three, domain knowledge is a must. Okay. Um, a doctor, for example, using GPT is going to be able to go far deeper than, you know, I assume you don't have a medical degree. I'll speak for myself. I don't. Okay. So,

They're going to be able to go far deeper than the two of us can.

It makes sense. Um therefore for me the question becomes in utilizing AI as a trader. Is it in testing your beliefs and just having you know some someone to brainstorm with?

Uh but then you don't have the uh ability to decipher what is good and bad because of the domain knowledge you were mentioning or is it better using as a tool to back test and and other ways to interact with AI is basically the question.

Yeah. um both and I can address these um what the what the AA does and Claude CL claud I'm a big fan of Claude but Claude does it the worst there's confirmation bias there okay so they're going to tell you how smart you are how handsome you are how this how that how brilliant you are and all the things that's there um someone that I similar that I I I work with um and he just picked up he's prompting at a at a good solid level but He's, you know, he's still learning there along the way. Um Claude told him that he's prompting exceeds what what what it sees from um what was the firm that they basically did? It was either Citadel or one. Yeah. Number one, it doesn't know it's talking to anyone at Citadel. Number two, Citadel is not going to be putting the prompts in there. It just hallucinated. It just basically just told them that was there. Um there's ways to be able to do that. at telling it in the prompt, be brutally honest, will get it to straighten it out to some degree. All right? Um, it will still basically tell you all these things about yourself, but what you're looking to do is basically, you know, you want to get it away from that confirmation bias. Um, if you allow it to have memory, which mine does have memory. I have two years now almost three years of compensations that it has memory of. Um, I'm sorry, it's about two years. That's when they when they start allowing the memory that goes in there. So, it pretty much knows me inside and out. It knows the way I think and those things that that that are there. Um, I have to be very careful that it's not telling me what I want to hear. Okay. Um, and I think we all do. Um, it really is, um, a way to basically utilize AI at a higher level. Um, it's also a phenomenal teaching tool that was there. all the holes that I had, fragmentation that I had in options knowledge, I was able to within three months pretty much move myself what I would consider to be on a professional level, an intermediate level trader up to professional level knowledge, but I'm getting feedback continuously because I'm going into the marketplace, seeing how it played out, put it back in the AI. So, these are all ways that it could be it could be there. Um, AGI will never be able to, at least in my opinion, will never be able to take the domain authority and knowledge of anything that I haven't published, for example, or that hasn't been published out there. It only has things that have been published.

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Do you think um because now AI becomes a wonderful way to uh empower yourself with more and more knowledge and diversify your level of knowledge. But I do wonder does is that a worthwhile pursuit in the sense of does more knowledge equal better trading performance?

100%. 100%. I you know I can't guarantee performance. Nobody can you we're an industry but

There's a stronger correlation.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean you know we're not we're not in physics so it's there's that's there but absolutely knowledge plays a a major major role. Um and that knowledge has to go that knowledge really has to go beyond what has already been published. that that that's out there. It's it's connecting dots and putting things together. And you know, you have you have the top part of my framework that's there. A lot of pieces to it.

Yes. Well, let's refer back to it. So, I'm I'm curious because you mentioned it before and it is jumping a bit, but the convexity side of things.

Yeah. So, we we can start with first on the hedging side. As I mentioned, um I'm continuously looking, constantly looking out how can I hedge out market risk, how can I hedge out industry risk? Obviously, AI and optical, you know, that's there. Um I have memory, so you know, I can hedge it out with with the ETFs to be able to do it to a degree. And how can I hedge it out to such a um point that I'm not hedging out all the potential gains that that's there? You can, you know, you can you can underhedge, you can over hedge. M

They are both things that continuously get get working on. Um convexity plays a big role because if you take a look at the great wealth creation done in short periods of time they were done from convexity trading. All right, it was done that if you go to the original market wizards books, okay, there's only one options trader in there, Tony Civa. Okay, and you know, Tony's brilliant, have a phenomenal career, phenomenal business, phenomenal business career also, but Tony was long convexity when the market crashed in 1987. Okay. And you know, he um you know, he he was able, you know, to do there. We jump ahead to 2008. Um, if you take a look at John Pollson, he was long convexity from the great financial crisis that's there. Jump ahead to 2020 20. Yeah, 2020. Bill Aman was, you know, early readings on CO. He's there in New York City was basically um able to build convex positions. How does one build convex positions? I'll keep this simple. Um, I've been through a few market crashes. 87 was the was was the first. So you see h how these things play themselves out. What happens there is that you're building a a certain percentage of the portfolio. Okay, usually the recommendation is 1 to 3%. I'll go up to 5%. I believe I have enough alpha in place that I can go 5%. I want to be there on a market crash. It could be it could be it could happen this year, could happen next year, might not happen till next decade. It's going to cost. Okay, it's done by basically having far out of the money. I'll use this example, SPX or SPY calls. Let's say, let's say it's SPY. Um, they would go out into 2027, go out into 2028.

They're going to be ridiculously out of the money. You know, at, you know, the S&P is, you know, in the 700s. We're talking about buying things in the low 500s, 400s. I even have options that go out I think a couple it's more than a couple years that that are in the 300s that's there. Okay. Um long Vega long volatility market sells off that's there. Those things can potentially depending upon how the the um portfolio is structured and depending upon how heavy one is those things can make a year can make um yeah can make a year can make a decade. They can make a career. I have a handful of friends that literally um in different industries at different times that were always long convexity that made generational wealth from one trade because they were long convexity. Um if you take a look at some of the you know I mentioned Aman you know he's done it successfully at least twice. Um another phenomenal hedge fund manager billionaire hedge fund manager Seth Clarman deep value investor but he uses convexity plays a big big role. that's there. The other thing that happens is if there's a substantial selloff as some, you know, spies go from the sevens down to the four, implied volatility is going to be spiked through the roof. Okay, those options are going to go have gone up likely many, many times what you pay for it. It could be 50 or 100 times what you pay for that now. There's no liquidity in the marketplace. There's all this panic in the marketplace. The risk managers have shut everything off this, you know, they're in protection mode. That's there. and you're providing the liquidity, you're flush with cash. You can convert those options, you cash them in, and now let's say you have a favorite stock and it was trading at $60 a share, you know, well, it's now at $20 a share. Maybe the fundamentals didn't change, okay, but it's at $20 a share simply because they had to get rid of the stock. They needed liquidity that was in place. So now you have a second profit, potential profit center. You portfolio protected on a big sell-off may turn into a substantial once in a-lifetime sell-off. Plus, you can go long. Um, you have the liquidity. You're the buyer at that place. So I'm willing to give up up to 5% a year.

5% of your account or 5% of your gains.

5% of the account.

Oh, okay. Okay.

Yeah. And usually the recommendation is 1 to 3%. But I believe I have enough alpha in the strategies that that there that you know again this is

But I can see why it's called a power law because um when it's not if it's when it happens it becomes a huge opportunity.

Yeah.

Very interesting. Have you have you been able to do this in any previous crashes or it's something you recently uh started to think about?

Um inadvertently without the knowledge of knowing and I was able to do it in ' 87. Um so in the 87 crash um there were all sorts of signals that that it was there that this thing was this bull market that had been running up since 19 I think it was 82 it bottom out so it was pretty much a 5year run um so I was long options at a buck two bucks it just loaded up really load up I was positioned to be able to to to do that um none of my children were born at that period of time you know it's it's still my Um, and I was loaded. Options that I bought for a dollar opened up on Monday morning. 2025. So, it was 20 25 times the money. It was sub substantial. Um, at the time it was an 87. I was still in my 20s at there. Yeah, I think I was 28 years old. And there's this avalanche that was there. Here's the mistake I made. I just grabbed it. It was like done. If I waited till the end of the day, those same options were trading in the 60s. So where I made 20 times the money in the morning, if I had just simply held a piece or held the whole thing until the end of the day, it was trading in the 60s. So I've been able to witness it. Um, and you know, also fortunate enough to know of, you know, a handful of friends that have been able to do it in other markets. You know, one of them, one of them did it in the, um, it was either the coffee market or the orange juice market, but he was on the floor. He was in his 20s at the time and he was lung convexity and it was a freeze and it was up limit day after day after day after day after day. Um he was yeah he was in his 20s. He's now 55 and still going. Um but it was generational wealth created from one trade.

So it's actually it's it's a new concept to me but it's very interesting because now I can build a career trying to grow my accounts or I can just use that as a vehicle to then one day have this big generational wealth event.

Yeah. I mean Nasim Talib you know that's his um you know he's author of a number of books that are out there um was a flaw trader I mean brilliant mathematician and and statistician um so they have a fund um that basically this is all they do it's it's it's there for the crash so they'll go years losing money okay um to be there for that time that it makes you know they'll literally they've had quarters at least reportedly have done thousands of percent for for the quarter. Um it's not something I could do. I you know I I I'm looking to basically compound my account at a you know at a fairly healthy rate. Um I don't want to wait around but I certainly want to be there. Yeah.

If and when the next one comes um I'll be there.

Very impressive. The next part is uh portfolio construction which is a nice segue to what we've spoken about. this can be 1 to 5% of your account towards this black swan event opportunity. How would you construct the rest of your account portfolio?

Yeah, so there's a long side, there's a short side. Okay. Um there's a hedging side, and then there's a convexity side. Um my rule of thumb is I don't risk more than 1% um in a position. Okay? And this is why I'll often have, you know, I can handle

80 100 positions at at a time. I will use leverage to be able to do this and plus with the option I'm getting you know you know I'm I'm getting

greater use of capital to be able to do that. Um if I'm wrong lose a percent, you know, not a big deal. Um, you could be wrong five six seven eight nine time 10 times. Um, it really is there to be able to do that. Um, that 1% is will make a difference on the options. If I was outright trading equities, for example, if I was going to take a position, that 1% is not going to make a dent. I could be dead right on something. It could end up doubling.

If it doubles, I made a percent. It's it it isn't there. So, um, you know, risk management and position sizing there. It's an individual choice to be able to do this. Um, my children are now all grown up. They, you know, they're doing well. And um, but while they were growing up, my responsibilities were different. I needed to make sure there were, you know, private schools. We lived in good areas that that was there. Um, and I really needed to make sure that I wasn't putting capital at extreme, you know, at extreme type of risk. Everyone knows what's, you know, the question they need to ask is what is best for them at that given period of time. Interesting.

Yeah.

And then, you know, where is the net worth? How is it sprinkled around? It could be in businesses. It could be in real estate. It could be there every and there's no one rule of thumb. You know, for me, it's 1% um per position max.

Because you're not using a stop loss, are you just sizing for zero?

I'm sizing for zero. I go into every trade assuming I'm going to lose 100%. Got it.

Yeah, I'm I'm never disappointed.

Okay.

Fair enough. Uh this is actually a nice point you mentioned which is diversification outside of the market with because previously when you were in employment you had a salary then I I guess that acts as a nice cushion but now when it's your money and uh not a fixed salary tied to your uh profession does that add a burden or does that make it more difficult or do you now use uh cash flow in terms of property as the replacement?

for myself.

No. Um, if you want to segue this into the AI, it might it might be helpful, but I'll, you know, I'll leave it up to you if we want to segue this into the AI.

I think it's important.

Okay.

Yes.

They're going to be able to go far deeper than the two of us can.

It makes sense. Um therefore for me the question becomes in utilizing AI as a trader. Is it in testing your beliefs and just having you know some someone to brainstorm with?

100%. 100%. I you know I can't guarantee performance. Nobody can you we're an industry but

There's a stronger correlation.

Yes. Well, let's refer back to it. So, I'm I'm curious because you mentioned it before and it is jumping a bit, but the convexity side of things.

5% of your account or 5% of your gains.

5% of the account.

Oh, okay. Okay.

Yeah. And usually the recommendation is 1 to 3%. But I believe I have enough alpha in the strategies that that there that you know again this is

But I can see why it's called a power law because um when it's not if it's when it happens it becomes a huge opportunity.

Yeah.

Very interesting. Have you have you been able to do this in any previous crashes or it's something you recently uh started to think about?

If and when the next one comes um I'll be there.

80 100 positions at at a time. I will use leverage to be able to do this and plus with the option I'm getting you know you know I'm I'm getting

Yeah.

Because you're not using a stop loss, are you just sizing for zero?

I'm sizing for zero. I go into every trade assuming I'm going to lose 100%. Got it.

Yeah, I'm I'm never disappointed.

Okay.

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The Godfather Of Technical Analysis: Your Stop Losses Are Costing You More Than You Think

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