This Could Get A Lot Worse...

Wow, it's not often that we see a crash quite like this. And as we witness history together as traders and investors, there is a lot to discuss.

In today's video, we talk about whether markets could get worse before they get better; the structural coincidences of several different key points in history and how they share parallels; could we be heading for a depression even worse than a recession? And, of course, whether the stock market is completely oversold. We've got the key levels. Let's talk stocks, commodities, and cryptos in this special weekend edition that is absolutely an emergency one. Join us right now, guys. We've got a lot to talk about.

Well, welcome back everybody to the Daily Show. My name is Tom, and in today's video, we have a lot to discuss. If it's your first time here on the channel, make sure to subscribe, hit that bell, as we have a lot to talk about over the next couple of days, and we will be pumping out extra videos to make sure that we cover everything you need to know as the news comes through.

Now, more importantly than anything else though, I wanted to talk about today's video. We'll break it down into quite a few segments. Specifically, at the start here, we'll talk about some of the big data points. Then we'll go through the tariffs, what it means to us, and obviously we need to talk about whether we are now following the recessionary or potential depression path. That is a big deal. Then we'll talk rotation, big volumes coming into at the end of the close, and obviously everything with options and TA. Let's get started straight away here though with some history-making stuff.

The S&P 500 2-day rate change percentage since the 1950s. You can see not too many times have we seen a red dot like this. And traditionally, it does start to kind of come in usually when you hit that max fear. Now, obviously, we know we hit a sell-everything day, which is obviously a bit of a problem when you're talking about why did the market do that? It completely freaked out with those reciprocal tariffs from China. But as we'll show, it's more of the fear of the unknown. What are the values that we can put on things such as these tariffs? Exactly how serious is this going to get?

Well, let's start off here with the VIX, because the volatility markets, that is the VIX, it spiked big time, and of course that puts us within all of the biggest sell-offs that we've usually ever seen. Now, when you tend to get a VIX this high and it happens pretty quickly, as you can see here from Subu Trade, it does tend to bring some relief, at least initially, and that's because markets are trying to repric themselves. And you often see very spiky up and down markets that can move upwards of 5, 6, 7% up and down all over the place. A lot of people that have traded things such as 2020 and 2007, 2007 and 2008, and of course the dot crash, you guys would know what I mean. But this puts us into these special circumstances. Most of the time they are around lows, but they can get worse. 2020 got a lot worse before it got better in terms of percentages, and of course the global financial crisis also did. It can also mark though big points where you get relief rallies. Doesn't mean the sell is over though.

Well, not exactly. And that's the problem. The relief rallies are often seen as bull traps, as we then we basically see some kind of improvement in news. Now you could argue that this particular sell is the most unique and random on record because really if you clicked your fingers and the tariffs were taken away, the market would maybe not go straight back to the highs or anything, but it certainly would love it. And you can imagine how strong that bull handle would be. I, I wouldn't be surprised if it would be upwards of 10% in one session.

Let's have a look at the VIX 1 month versus 3 months. It jumped above the 1.2 level. As you can see here, that's not very common. And when it does it, this is what happens: 1, 2 weeks etc. Later. Interestingly, there's often a doubling dip, but notice 2 days later, 100% of all other reads again, some serious times here. One of them actually being the previous trade war was actually two of them, because February and December. These particular periods here are those points where you get that kind of flash sell, some bit of good news jumps back up, and you then of course feel better. But often it will come back and dive to a second low.

Now, when the VIX does close at these points into the weekend, that is also an interesting one. Here you can see Charlie has some interesting data when it comes to the VIX here: 1 year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year, and 5 year on actually all green. Does that mean everything's all good to buy the dip? Not necessarily. You can see there are a lot of conflicting signals. I think what I'm trying to show you guys here is that while we will probably get a relief rally based on just oversold stats that you'll see in a moment, the problem is is that what we have just done is often a triggering point, as you can see here with some of the worst markets ever recorded. And it can happen at these highs.

S&P 500 spliced to the S&P 90. You can see here, and this is Mark's work here, and it's over 8% loss weeks within two months of record high. When that happens, it's not the best read. And guess what? It was either the tariff period of, of course, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs off the great into the Great Depression, or one of the, the biggest sell-offs ever recorded in history where markets went actually negative 90%. Or you've got the dot bubble. So both of those periods kind of have some, you know, I guess you would say synergies with right now: the AI bubble versus the dotcom bubble, and of course the tariffs versus the tariffs. You know, they're almost all 100 years apart as well when you actually look at that. There were ones I think in the 1880s, but then there's an 1820s one, a 1920s one, 1930s, and of course where are we right now? Well, we're in 2025.

Retail net imbalances. What are you looking for often when you're looking for those big sell-offs? Well, as we showed on our X account and of course on the YouTube channel here that we had everyone fearful, but no one was selling, as in retail weren't selling. That changed as a Friday. Retail flows highest ever recorded by JP Morgan in the first couple of hours. That was that everyone was selling. Retail outflow, outflow, outflow, outflow, maximum panic. And it wasn't just retail that was panicking, the bonds market was panicking, and as you guys know, if the bonds market is panicking, then we need to be paying a lot of attention to what happens next. This is an all-time, well not an all-time, but a one-year high for the overall bonds market credit spreads, and this basically means, and as we know that, that we haven't seen a low formed yet. Now, if that absolutely shoots back down and panic goes away, of course it's a great signal that we used over the last couple of years to time in some of these lows along with market structure. We mentioned last week that we didn't believe that we'd necessarily put a low in because of course we haven't seen those credit markets bounce back up, but don't worry, we'll be following them together, and of course we'll be absolutely discussing those points.

Now let's move over here before we get to some of the statistical data around some oversold indicators to what these tariffs are doing and what the big guys are saying. Now, of course, the risk of recession, according to JP Morgan, you may have already heard this stat, has been raised to 60% from 40%. If sustained, this year's 22% point tariff, which is now kind of the calculation that's being worked out here, would be the largest US t tax hike since 1968. And of course it's going to be magnified by these retaliatory things such as the matching of tariffs from China. But as you'll see in a moment, that's not really the quite the story, because you'll see how much China imports versus the US in a minute.

Now, of course, more fiscal monetary easing is now expected. So we already knew the Fed put was probably coming back in, but as we saw with Jerome Pal, he didn't even make any mention of this. He just copy-pasted whatever he always says. And generally speaking, we will still expect QE in the future, but he's trying to rule that out for now as of course the market digests whatever's going on. Who knows? We'll have to of course keep watching this. The big risk is US policies generate lasting supply-side damage. And this is the big concept of investing into the future. How much damage will be done if these tariffs sit on for a long time? As you can see in this note here from Dan Ies, one of the big things here is going to be of course the time it takes to build factories, guys. Four to five years, I'd say even longer for some, 8 to 10 years for some factories. And of course this could be the game-changer, unfortunately, to maybe lose out on AI. For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to AI. And this fourth industrial revolution, well, I agree with industrial revolution, I'm not sure if it's the first time in 30 years it's ahead, being led by Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Amazon, Alphabet, Palanteer etc. But uh, the tariffs could of course affect that.

Now I think the biggest point here is I kind of feel like the, and I'm sure you guys do as well, that the key is really how long are they on? And why that is is because we have some signs here in terms of structure of the recessionary path. And it's not actually just the tariffs that of course I've always been worried about. As you would know if you've been watching this channel for a while, we did mention at the end of 24 into the start of 25 that no lever, because everyone was leveraging, and of course be more defensive. It's why we've liked sectors such as XLV, XLU, gold, silver. Yes, I know that was down pretty hard. We'll talk about that in a moment. And of course then of China as well. Now the reason we did focus on those is some of these were coming out of recessionary paths already, which is China. And these are what we call defensives. The aim is to beat the S&P as hard as you can. Plus, of course, we knew Warren Buffett was selling big time at the same point.

Now, when we take a look at the planned job cuts into the future from NextGen News here, yep, that's showing us some interesting stuff. Are we following a recessionary path? Certainly worthwhile considering that. That's of course early, cuz we're not seeing that in the jobs numbers. The jobs numbers were insane. There were like 200 and something thousand jobs. So it was a pretty hot economy that we are in at the moment, but obviously the market's forward-looking, not looking at what we're currently in. And as you can see here, the effect of the tariffs, it depends where you're looking at in terms of the effects. This is a good one from Ray Dio, and it kind of shows you here what happens at the beginning, what potentially happens, and then the long-term implications. So obviously imbalances, abrupt changes likely to occur. And of course this is the key. Trust in debt quality is a big thing here, political systems, future monetary policy, geopolitical impacts, and of course also what has been US exceptionalism.

Now if this gets affected by too much and people don't or they're not able to do what we would call, you know, we would say forward prediction in terms of the US economy, that's the key, and you'll see a lot of people probably talking about this in the future, which is going to be have we seen the end of US exceptionalism, regardless of what's going to go on here with the tariffs, is that damage really being done now? I'm not here to say that just yet, because the US is well still has the best companies in the world, but of, of course that's going to be an argument people are making. The reason you want to bring this up is because of this chart here. And I know it's a little small, I'll zoom it in hopefully on the edit, but basically it shows you the stock market is approaching a key crossroads. Now there are two issues: one is another chart which is 6 months on from an interest rate cut from the Fed, and two, when we have a 10% drawdown, if we are not going to coincide with recession, we tend to see a bottoming and a decent base and it rallies back up. If we are going with a recession, we tend to see degradation continue. Now we're about here at this point at the time of this recording, but the issue is is that we dropped quite a lot. So obviously we've dropped into a bear market in the NASDAQ, we've dropped into significant past correction in the S&P, and it's starting to just basically look like this structure. And unfortunately, we kind of knew that when we looked at that 200-day stat we shared about 3, 4 weeks ago that we were entering into an incredibly dangerous time.

Now will we go into a Smoot-Hawley style kind of rundown? You can see here this I3 infest chart actually has an interesting kind of paradigm because this is where we find ourselves right now, uh, you know, will we get this basing structure and then make a new low? Because as we make a new low there, if we do base structure here and that's what happens a lot of the time, then yeah, it's uh, it gets a lot worse unfortunately, so something to watch. Of course, can this be fixed to a degree like this? Absolutely. A click of a finger, suddenly we get rid of them, negotiations go through, what the market's going to be looking for this week: signs of negotiation, signs of, of course, any good news coming out, signs the Fed. That's probably not going to happen with the Fed now. So it's really going to be about these tariffs. Are we going to get rid of them? What's going to happen? Etc., etc.

Now one of the other things that you want to be looking at this year is if we're going to end the year red. Traditionally, we will need to see over 11 high VIX days. That basically means that we are currently at I think two or three high VIX days so far over 27.3. We get to 11, then that can give us a red end of year. So it's very important to know where are we with the VIX.

Now we mentioned with the tariffs before that China has reciprocated with a 34% tariff. What does this mean for us? Well, of course, as you can see here, it means that realistically, when you're looking at Chinese imports from the US, it's around .5%. Now I'm not exactly sure this stat's correct, but it makes sense. The reciprocal tariff is not as aggressive as of course the fact that, you know, realistically, let's be real, everyone buys a lot of stuff from China, especially western economies, so it's going to be more brutal on that end. Composite after 2 days of 5% declines again, all of those big flash crash style markets: 2001, 2008, 1987. What happens one day, 2 days, 3 days later? Well, you can kind of see here, it's uh, yeah, it's relief rallies traditionally, but that's only a couple of data points. So you need to keep that in mind.

And I thought I'd bring some with bigger data points here from Super Trade, Super Trade, and that is percentage of stocks under lower Bollinger band. You can see here, one week later in particular, 86% of the time we find bulls. So interesting, relief rally doesn't mean we're out of it, but relief rally. One week later when you have 45% of stocks oversold to the RSI again under 30, 82% of the time bullish. Again, not bad. Even the bad ones weren't that bad, but you know, maybe it's unusual times. And S&P 500 after a 4% loss then another 5% loss to six-month lows. So this is basically again those market structures that are really detrimental. Often they can sometimes be lows. The last one we saw though that wasn't the low or near the lows was pretty much this Smoot-Hawley kind of affected market. And you can see here one week later, 75% of the time the market would bull up. So interesting stat there.

Now when the S&P 500 broke its quarterly streak, that really bought in some big issues. First up, that we would probably get some form of relief at some point, which so far this hit I think on Thursday. So you know, we've got one bad day, of course, very bad day, and then we usually get a relief rally at some point over the next quarter, which is in line with every other stat we've seen. And then two quarters, three quarters, and the first year, yeah, not so good, kind of negative there.

What about dark pools? What were they doing? Well, it wasn't so much the dark pools was big funds. Big funds placed big orders near the end, 24th largest order on, most importantly, the Qs. Big one coming through. Seen a couple of big ones recently on that. And the 11th largest trade recorded on the SPY. Now that's a big one, cuz of course that's that's pretty big. I mean, it's the SPY. It's the most traded big ETF.

Now let's move over to rotations. It was sell everything, and I mean everything. Everything was selling off, including my defensives. The defensives here that we all have, guys, they were down pretty bad. It wasn't good. You know, healthcare obviously selling off on tariff expectations. Then we had homebuilders and K up the top. You might initially think, oh, that means it's strong. I think it's because when you look at the actual one month or the last 5 days, sorry, of selling, you can see here they're down the bottom. So basically, yeah, homebuilders is holding, but it was the first to sell off. So as the market goes into panic mode, they have to be invested. They go into the oversold markets and then hold in those. And that's pretty traditional. Now I mean, when we have a look at the kind of last 3 months, I guess it just shows you here that the market has been rotating defensive. We obviously have spoken about it a lot, but we probably wouldn't have ever expected to see this much, this quickly, this fast. I mean, let's be real. Those tariffs were big. They were across the board. And of course, they let the algos go wild. The wild algos absolutely waterfall this market. And we saw just everything falling through. That 5,400 put we were talking about in the previous video that got shedded in the morning as soon as those reciprocal tariffs came out outside of market hours, of course. And then that caused a futures absolute explosion.

So let's now talk about the actual charts themselves. We'll go through the S&P 500 here. You can see it fell a lot. Uh, it went to basically the close and just sold all the way into the end. Massive volumes underneath that 5150 zone which I thought might hold, uh, didn't hold. There's no bids here, guys. And then of course now we find ourselves at the 4950, 4960, and the 5150. So this area that's suddenly become an interesting point. Now why is this interesting? Well, if we go back to the S&P 500 during a similar period of time in terms of a freakout selloff, we've also had these types of freakouts that have occurred on things like the dot bust. And there's an overlay here that we might post over on X if you're interested. And it's kind of like this freakout moment hits into some monthly demand, which is exactly where we find ourselves right now. So monthly demand's been hit, we get a relief rally, doesn't go to the new high, and then of course goes down and then just keeps doing the series of lower highs and lower lows. Now will there be a relief rally? There always is. I mean, that is the, the nature of markets. And the only one that you really didn't see a super relief on was 87 where it just got absolutely flushed very quickly and then yeah, bounced. Of course, there was a relief V-shaped recovery after that. But yeah, in these cases, you know, we always, especially if we are entering into the recessionary path, uh, usually you will get, you know, usually a 50% fib kind of pullbacks in these types of situations. So that's something you can at least look into. And of course, I would suggest you do your analysis on it. Make sure that you're doing your analysis as much as you can on these levels. 4961 seems to be the next zone that the markets will try to go to, which could of course mean that the markets may sell further before rallying. Not much further though. But that's a mighty candle, a big one. And you just do not see them as we saw in the stats. So when this happens, you're obviously going to be feeling it. It's very, very crazy, very scary, very fear-driven. Do we have a bid? No. And I think that's what we were saying last week and, and you know, really getting into. We had a little bid here. We hit into those levels. Of course, we thought we might go 5850, which was the uh 20 moving average on the weekly. We just got around that 200, which is the key level as well, and we sold off. Then we saw the tariff introduction. We sold into that, of course, closed on the lows. 5400 puts everywhere. The puts then got triggered by of course the next announcement. Basically, we are in a news-driven market. And when you're in a news-driven market, picking the lows really has to come back to picking the bids. And you need to look at the bids. You need to look at the weight of evidence. If we're not getting price action bids, pretty much do not want to do it, of course, and I'm sure we're all aware of that.

Let's now have a look at the 5100 on the S&P. You can see that is the most struck one-day option. Underneath that, interestingly, we have like these 5800, 57, 4800, 4750s. And if you're looking at the OPEX now, you can see here that it is just a sea of red puts. Negative gamma across the board. Tons and tons and tons of puts, not many calls, and anywhere down here is just starting to get absolutely smashed. But the problem is is that even though these are put walls, that is that they're huge levels with massive amounts of puts on them, if the market, because of news and a freakout, takes those levels, you get a crash to the next equilibrium point. So basically the markets crash 5400 down to 5150 almost instantly. And that's what happens. You go from equilibrium to equilibrium to equilibrium. And of course, we do not really want 4950. I'm sure someone out there in the community wants that. But 4950, you do not really want that broken because that exposes some significant lows. We'll talk about our next emergency video.

Now let's talk about Tesla 250. It wasn't really doing much. It's underneath the puts, of course. Yes, it sold, but we know 220 or now 200 is becoming the big strike, but it was 220, 250. We're under 250, so we're probably looking at 220 as the next major support. And if you look at Nvidia, of course, it crunched 100. Didn't sell as much as some things. You know, it could have actually got hit a lot harder, but it already has been. And 95 is now the major put wall along with 100. So we're obviously sitting around those prices at this point.

Now let's go and have a look at the VIX. So the volatility spiked, and you just don't see these numbers very often. Here are the periods 15, 18. Again, you can see the two periods here, December 18, these are the two uh panics on tariffs last time. And then of course we have here the March 2020. And we've got here the August period of last year with the uh the Bank of Japan and everything going on there. That was actually the wildest spike considering the fear should was not justified. This one probably, I'd say, and I think you guys in the comments will agree, it's more justified than this thing. Absolutely more justified. It's ridiculous. It's actually this low when you consider how that spiked up, but that's the VIX for you.

Let's now move over to the bonds market. My bonds indicator obviously ain't showing a buy yet. I wouldn't uh like the buy yet in this case. Uh, obviously no strength. Little bit of a weak purchase near the end of the day, but not too much.

Now let's move over to relative strength. The percentage of stocks above their 50-day...

Sie können hier unten im Dreck sehen. Nun, das ist oft gleichbedeutend mit Tiefs an den Märkten, zumindest temporären Tiefs. Können sie zuerst noch etwas tiefer gehen? Ja, Sie können hier sehen, dass es im März 2020 geschah. Aber oft sind dies – das ist so meine Linie, die ich normalerweise im Sand habe. Und ich betrachte diese Niveaus oft aus dieser Perspektive. Nun, es ist nur eine Lesart. Schauen wir uns also andere Lesarten an.

Wir können hier den Prozentsatz der Aktien über dem 200-Tage-Durchschnitt sehen. Der wurde absolut auf diese Niveaus heruntergeprügelt, auf diese durchschnittlichen Niveaus, nach denen man oft sucht. Und Sie können hier sehen, dass, wenn Sie sich dieser 20-Linie nähern, es oft näher an einige dieser bedeutenden Rallye-Zonen heranrückt, die stattgefunden haben. Das bedeutet wieder nicht, dass es das Tief ist. Es bedeutet nur, dass es hier Rallyes gibt. Und natürlich der Prozentsatz der Aktien über der 20. Normalerweise betrachte ich 20 als Unterstützungszone. Wie Sie sehen können, haben wir das markiert. Wir haben übrigens eine Erleichterung davon bekommen. Schauen Sie sich 20 an. Sehen Sie 20, Erleichterung. Und jetzt sitzen wir bei sieben, was im Grunde die sekundäre ist. Also wieder Anzeichen extremer Angst, extremer Panik, die in die Märkte kommen, offensichtlich auf der Suche nach Käufern.

Schauen wir uns hier nun die Hausbauer an. Sie können sehen, dass es gefallen und sich ziemlich stark erholt hat. Das ist an sich schon interessant, dass es tatsächlich eine Rallye durch die Sitzungen gab, und der US-Dollar fiel ab und erholte sich dann wieder. Also wieder einige interessante Dinge, die dort in diesen beiden vor sich gehen. Nicht viel zu wiederholen, zu berichten, in diesen noch. Zu früh, um es zu sagen. Gold wurde auf das Nachfrage-Niveau verkauft. Das ist eigentlich ziemlich genau dort, wo man es normalerweise betrachten möchte, in dieser Art von Bodenbildungszone hier. Und Gold war von den wichtigsten Vermögenswerten am wenigsten betroffen, weil es am Ende nur um 2,43 auf 3.000 fiel. Nun, Sie wissen, es war ein großartiger Lauf für Gold. Wir mögen das bei diesen geopolitischen Spannungen weiterhin und wir bevorzugen das sicherlich gegenüber vielen anderen Dingen. Kupfer wurde zerstört. Die potenzielle Bullback-Zone wurde aufgeschmolzen. Deshalb müssen Sie nach Käufern suchen. Ich zeige es Ihnen einfach. Es gibt buchstäblich keinen, keinen Käufer. Nichts. Kam einfach rein und schmolz es. Und ich sage immer, wenn Sie ein Schlüsselniveau finden, schauen Sie und haben Sie Geduld und reagieren Sie auf den Markt. Sagen Sie nicht voraus, dass dies das beste Tief ist. Wenn Sie skalieren, skalieren Sie nur. Und dann suchen Sie nach strukturellen Veränderungen. Natürlich wollen wir bei diesen strukturelle Veränderungen sehen. HSI, was passiert dort? Der chinesische Markt hat sich relativ gut gehalten.

Okay, schauen wir uns Tesla an. Tesla fällt auf etwa 240. Die Basisstruktur liegt bei etwa 220 für diesen. Wieder würde ich Tesla nicht als die wichtigste Lesart an den Märkten betrachten. Aber ich denke, das Wichtigste hier war, dass die Halbleiter alles fallen ließen. Also haben wir alle Niveaus bei Halbleitern verloren. Und das ist natürlich kein gutes Zeichen. Es muss wirklich zeigen, dass es sich gestärkt hat. Technologie, Kommunikation, Halbleiter – wenn Sie diese nicht zurückprallen sehen, haben wir keine Erholung. Defensive Werte können es nicht tun. Und offensichtlich können kleine Sektoren es nicht tun. Halbleiter sind absolut gefallen. Nvidia ist offensichtlich auf bestimmte Schlüsselniveaus gefallen. Bevor wir uns Deutschland ansehen, schauen wir uns hier Nvidia an. Wir gehen zum Wochenchart. Sie können sehen, dass wir uns knapp auf dem Niveau des August-Rückpralls befinden, das bei etwa 93 lag. Wir müssen Nvidia beobachten, aber Halbleiter haben definitiv das Niveau fallen lassen. Noch keine Anzeichen von Käufern bei diesen.

Schauen wir uns den deutschen Markt an. Wurde während der Sitzung zerrissen. Ja, nicht gut, natürlich sehr, sehr schlecht. Ist ziemlich stark gefallen, und es gibt auch bei diesem keine Anzeichen für einen Käufer. Obwohl wir anfangen, dorthin zurückzukehren, wo wir Anfang des Jahres im Januar waren. Es löscht also offensichtlich das Jahr aus. Und wenn wir uns nun den NASDAQ ansehen, hier beginnen wir, ein wenig Synergien mit ein paar Dingen zu bekommen. In unserem vorherigen Video haben wir Synergien um 18.300 gesehen, was unser nächstes Niveau für den NAS war. Das wurde genommen. Was bringt uns das? Ungefähr 17.000. Wir haben – wir sind tatsächlich für eine Sekunde unter dieses Tief hier geschwungen. Dieser Bereich hier ist für Bullen und natürlich auch für Bären von größtem Interesse, denn ich bin sicher, dass es auf diesen gesetzten Niveaus Gewinnmitnahmen gibt. Dies ist ein sehr wichtiger Punkt, um eine Struktur zu finden. Wir haben die Struktur beim vorherigen S&P-Punkt gefunden. Wir haben einen kleinen Rückprall bekommen, offensichtlich. Dann bekamen wir die Tarifnachrichten. Tarifnachrichten nehmen das Tief, schieben es auf das nächste Niveau. Dieses wurde wieder von China erwidert. Das drückt es weiter nach unten, Algorithmen müssen absichern, und wir bewegen uns auf das nächste Niveau. Wenn wir dieses Niveau nicht schaffen, ja, Sie haben es erraten, werden wir wahrscheinlich um die 16.400 beim NASDAQ liegen. Aber gibt es irgendwann Erholungsrallyes? Ja, natürlich wird es die immer geben. Das Problem ist, wie groß werden sie sein? Normalerweise ist es irgendeine Form von Fibonacci, und wir werden das überprüfen. US 2K ist gefallen. Keine wirklichen Anzeichen für etwas Besonderes bei diesem. 1.800 wurde erreicht. Sie können hier die Monatscharts sehen, nicht wirklich ein super Unterstützungsniveau, aber es ist die meistgehandelte Zone. Was wir also tatsächlich tun können, ist, den festen Bereich hier zu erfassen. Und Sie werden feststellen, dass wir uns am Markt ziemlich oft in diesem Bereich wiederfinden. Das ist natürlich ein wichtiges Niveau. Und wenn es um Dinge wie Bitcoin und Krypto geht, hat es nicht wirklich etwas getan. Viele von Ihnen sagen jetzt vielleicht: Ich habe Ihnen gesagt, Bitcoin sei eine Absicherung gegen globale Unsicherheit. Nicht ganz. Ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob es das ist. Ich weiß, es sitzt hier und tut nichts, und Sie denken vielleicht: Sehen Sie, es tut es doch, aber ich habe das Gefühl, das liegt daran, dass es bereits ein depressives Asset war. Sie müssen sich daran erinnern, dass es in letzter Zeit stark verkauft wurde, während der Rest des Marktes dies nicht tat. Wir haben uns auch an Hausbauer und Regionalbanken erinnert, die relativ anständige Gebote gefunden haben, und Gold hat sich natürlich auch relativ gut gehalten. Ich würde also nicht zu tief hineinsehen. Ich bin ein Liebhaber von Bitcoin, verstehen Sie mich nicht falsch, aber ich denke nicht, dass es unbedingt gegen alle negativen Auswirkungen Bestand hat. 618 Fibonacci hält hier offensichtlich in Bezug auf die Märkte immer noch. Und wie Sie wissen, sind die Ethereum-Charts immer noch sehr, sehr niedrig. Also gibt es im Grunde Anzeichen für eine Art Versuch, Gebote abzugeben, aber ich bin mir ziemlich sicher, dass die meisten von Ihnen im Moment wahrscheinlich auf diese Märkte konzentriert sind, weil dort der Rückgang irgendwann eintreten und sich erholen könnte, aber es wird wahrscheinlich keinen Rückgang und keine Erholung geben, ohne eine Art Veränderung in den Nachrichten. Diese Tarife sind sehr schwer zu berechnen. Versuchen Sie nicht, es zu tun, achten Sie offensichtlich auf diese Nachrichtenänderungen und die Marktstruktur, und das ist diese Woche sehr wichtig.

Wenn wir diese Woche betrachten und uns die Zahlen ansehen, Leute, was haben wir? Wir haben ein paar Zentralbanken, die über Dinge sprechen. Wir haben die Sitzungsprotokolle des FOMC für Mittwoch, 14:00 Uhr New Yorker Zeit, und dann haben wir natürlich CPI-Zahlen, die aus der Tarifperspektive betrachtet werden, da wir einige dieser Lesarten erhalten werden, und dann Core PPI am Freitag. Diese Woche geht es eigentlich gar nicht um diese Dinge. Jeder wird nur nach Verhandlungen suchen, irgendeine Art von Deal, der geschlossen wird, Tarifermäßigungen, sie abzuschaffen, sie zu pausieren, was auch immer nötig ist. Das ist es, was der Markt wollen wird. Ich bin sicher, Sie stimmen dem zu. In Bezug auf alles andere werden wir Ihnen so viele Daten wie möglich zur Verfügung stellen. Wir werden eine Reihe von Notfall-Videos machen. Bei Bedarf machen wir einen Montag-Livestream, der völlig kostenlos ist. Abonnieren Sie also den Kanal, während wir die Eröffnung sehen und gemeinsam durchgehen. Und Mann oh Mann, Leute, das wird wild. Wir haben im ersten Quartal oder dritten Quartal dieses Jahres 10 % erwartet. Natürlich war das erste Quartal am wahrscheinlichsten. Haben wir 15 erwartet? Haben wir 20 beim NAS erwartet? Nicht so schnell. Das geht sehr schnell. Natürlich müssen wir es angesichts der Ängste an den Märkten auf viele verschiedene Arten betrachten. Wir werden in Zukunft durchgehen. So viele Diskussionen darüber, was diese Tarife bedeuten, auch für Investitionen in die Zukunft, und natürlich ist es kein Punkt, an dem man deswegen ausflippen muss, aber ich hoffe, dass die Leute nicht zu hoch verschuldet sind. Hier geht es darum zu verstehen, dass die Märkte diese Art von Dingen schon früher getan haben, nicht auf die gleiche Weise, definitiv beängstigend da draußen, hoffentlich können Sie sich uns anschließen, während wir, wissen Sie, gemeinsam durchgehen und natürlich auf Bildung schauen, mehr über diese Dinge lernen und unser Wissen teilen und es an Sie weitergeben. Vielen Dank, Leute. Haben Sie ein schönes Wochenende. Bleiben Sie in Sicherheit da draußen. Wir sehen uns bald. Bis bald.