Transcription
Woo. What's going on, everybody? Oh, that's a creepy angle. We don't like this. We don't like this. We like this. What's going on? It's the MLV Research Show. I am Lindy. You can follow me at, uh, X at Eric Linquist. You might be watching me on X. You might also be watching me here on the YouTubes. Most of you on the YouTubes. Hit that like button as we get started. It lets people know, including the higher powers that be, that you enjoy this content, that you would like breaking down 15-game MLB slates alongside your boy.
Now, we had MLB Lindy's last night. You want to get all the plays? Yeah, you can check that out. That's not all the plays. We got more plays coming. We're going to have plays on this show. We're going to have plays tonight. I mean, I'm just going to be constantly sitting at my desk like I normally am, drinking a lot of coffee, caffeinated, chewing less tobacco, trying to get better at that. And we're going to be getting ourselves a lot more plays on the pick 'em streets as well. Ride the tails of Horwitz. Yeah, Horowitz50. Last day to take advantage of this. If you guys want to jump into the Discord, it is 50% off a month, less than a dollar a day just to hang out for a month with Horowitz50. That is down at the link below. You can sign up there. Come join the party. It is not just myself. And there are a lot of sharp subs, a lot of sharp people over on tails as well. My guy Mike Thirsten. I see him in the chat there. Uh, thirsty for some thirsting on this Friday, but he's got some soccer goodness going for us. Him and Ben Raza over in the Discord as well. Oh boy. Oh boy, friends. It's going to be a glorious couple of weeks. Going to be a glorious couple of weeks.
So, let's get ourselves to work, shall we? We got a lot to get to. And, uh, of course, the Odd Shopper tools. Baby Lindy 50% off your first week or month. There's a 7-day free trial. All of that is really good stuff. So, if you want to check out the same stuff I am using on a day-in, day-out basis to help you find the best home run plays, up over 26 units over the course of this MLB season on the home runs, you can check so with baby Lindy50 down at the link below.
All right, cool, cool, cool, cool, cool. We got ourselves 15 games, tons to get to. We got weather. Kind of get the lay of the land here. Not as, not as brutal. I mean, that, that White Sox game, talked about it multiple times, did get very, very worried about it. Very, very worried about it coming on this program. And Anthony Kay had looked at those walks and well, all of it was for naught. All of it was for naught. Thanks for the JRAM and WNBA on tails a few days ago. Jay Metal K. Yeah, Jay Metal K knows things. Jetal K knows things. Definitely does. I, I mean, PrizePicks, shout out the goat. Shout out to the goat. We got PNC Park playing downwind, 8 and a half total. We got Nationals Park. It's actually blowing out a little bit more than what is indicated on your screen. Uh, just, just aggregating weather for what it's worth. Cambium looks all right here. Ended up putting that in some pick 'em. I'll show that to you here in a second. Progressive Field. No clue what to do with this. No clue what to do with that game. Absolutely no clue. We got Fenway Park. Wind's been mitigated there by quite a bit. I'm feeling better about the likes of my Corey Seager play. Feeling really good about some of that. Citi Field is looking all right to me. Not 92 degrees like it was yesterday. Hey Cuck Tim, by the way, we pushed on that. Did you know that? Did you know? Great American Small Park playing downwind. Hi Spencer Steer, how are you this fine day? Roger Center roof going to be open. Not great. Not great for pitching. I, I do think that this is going to play up a little bit at Roger Center for today. Rate Field looking really good. I don't, I don't know what to make of Otani. It sounds like he might be in the lineup again today. It's just nuts. Nuts. Been going back and forth on if I want to pull the trigger there. And obviously the total has now zipped. I had said it last night. Eight and a half. I would have played it if I had been confident about Otani. I was not confident about Otani. But that movement in the line indicates, and Dave Roberts saying it, that it sounds like he's going to play baseball. So, sweet. Roof open. It's good hitting weather in Milwaukee. Doesn't matter because we got Jacob Misowski, who we'll talk about. Kauffman Stadium continuing to look nice even though nothing happens there. Target Field wind out. I am looking at some righties in Target Field for today. A ballpark better for righties than lefties. Angel Stadium wind out, nine. And then our nuke, our absolute nuke spot. I mean, what a crazy game environment we're rocking into there. Better numbers on Kyle Keros this time around. Sounds like Tavvar could end up being the two-hole guy. I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm happy to just have the plus 500. Can't cash out of that. Plus 541 now over at DK last time I looked. And Oracle, it's always blowing out, but it doesn't matter. Cool. Got the lay of the land.
Now, let's start digging into some baseball. We got two games in this early portion, 6:40, 6:45 Eastern, respectively. And I like Braxton and Ashcraft a lot more than the average bear. I think Jay Metal K does too, based on what I've heard. Based on what I've heard. You like him. Been staring at his [ __ ] all day. Yeah, it's playable on Underdog. Are you kidding me? You have it playable on Underdog like you have minus 115 there. I don't think it's minus 115 anymore. Turn this music down. It's blaring in my ear. There we go. Braxton and Ashcraft has been, he's been a real G. He's been a real G. Up to six. Here we have a minus 120 at Bet365. I've been staring at it. I've been begging for it inside of minus 120. Don't think it's going to show up again. If I were market making, I'd post something inside of minus 120 and figure it out from there because that looks really nice for today. The point is Braxton Ashcraft. I don't think I'm going to be that sad missing the boat. I like Braxton Ashcraft a lot. Pitches deep into games. He has obviously brought a lot more strikeout stuff than anybody anticipated to the table. Well, we anticipated it because we've been betting it like all year long. But Miami is kind of a disaster now. Owen Casey went up to the six hole yesterday. That'd be an upgrade opposed to the eight hole that he frequented. Did have them on a pick 'em card. I do have him on a pick 'em card. I shouldn't talk about it in past tense. If you guys go to tails.bet/lindy, you would know such things. If you follow me, I guess VIP, I posted it VIP only, but want to bring this up. Oh, I'll bring up chat here, too. Early just talked about my boy Ashcraft. Yep. Talking about it. I'm looking at it, too. But I'm not going to be that heartbroken if we don't. Uh, this is a nuke. Best price Underdog. Trust me. Just trust me, bro. Some lefties who can hit bombs. That seems useful. You can literally one-click tail. Not to Underdog, though. And obviously it pays better on Underdog than there at the moment. Oh, I got my guy B. Grebs throwing out some World Cup. That makes me happy. Talk about Lafy. Hopefully you guys checked out the snipe session before this. Hopefully you checked out the snipe session. Otherwise, you can go back and watch it. Of course, my guy Mike Thirsten just goated parlay from last night. Pick 'em starter. Talked about Owen Casey, Nicola Doolo, Cody Clemens, all of those look yatsy. Lukeley, RBI in addition to the home run, which I added last night. Just been back and forth and back and forth and didn't know what to do with my life. Slightly best available now, but I'd play it at 340. I would, I was thinking I was gonna get 375 and I just kind of realized that that's not going to happen. Kyle Keros, talked about him. Little bit better price you can get on him now. 550, 548 it sits at on DK now. It was 541 when I looked, uh, 20 minutes ago. Cody Clemens, I'd be shocked if this still existed. Oh, it still exists. They do exist. Doesn't exist in Pick 'em anymore. That much is very known. Shout out PrizePicks. Shout out to me. Corey Seager, one and a half hits plus runs plus RBIs. Obviously put him in that Underdog card as well. This looks nuclear. I mean, the wind has mitigated. It's, it's much more tame in Fenway than what it was looking like last night. It looked like it had a chance to potentially be under five. It's under five, uh, at first pitch and that is useful. Kansas City money line. Very small play on this one, but I do think it's the right side that exists. Best available number at every public book until you get to minus 102. So, we ended up getting a decent bit of value there. Obviously, no big profit X. Can't do much about that. You can if you've got it. Shout out you. Hope you choke. New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays under eight runs. I'm feeling less confident about that one. Feeling less confident than what I was last night. Sounds like the roof's going to be open. We're getting a tiny bit of CLV at the public books and I'm not even sure if we deserve it. I'm more worried about it. And this one, I'm not worried about. Spencer Steer was a nuke. Spencer Steer, I almost played it for a half unit last night. Haven't made a half-unit play the entire year in the home run department. It's coming. This one almost got the, this almost got the treatment. This was a dumb number. DK opened it. It was a dumb, dumb number. San Diego, Baltimore over eight and a half. Big fan of runs in that one. Uh, is Griffin Canning capable of getting a lefty out? Is he capable of getting a lefty out at all? I'm not sure.
But we begin. And the first thing I want to talk about on this program is Jacob Msrowski. Pulled up the custom leaderboard. I usually tweak around with some columns and take a look and see how guys have been doing recently, how they've been doing on the year, what, what, what the NL is ridiculous. Ms.ki, Ki, Skins, Sanchez, Burns, Ashcraft, Elder, even, I mean, it's absurd what we are seeing from Jacob Mizowski. We are in the midst of one of the best seasons you could ever imagine for a pitcher. Dominating. Absolutely dominating. Dominating beyond dominating beyond dominating. EV50 average of the 50% hardest hit balls is 77 miles per hour. I guess 50% of the softest. Sorry. I don't know what you can say about Paul Ske. He's completely dominant. And then you think about how Philly sets up their lineup on a day-in, day-out basis. They have Andrew Painter going. Best of luck. Best of luck, Andrew Painter. 47.2% K rate to lefties. This is not a bullpen arm. He throws like a bullpen arm. He throws like a nuclear bullpen arm and then he does it for seven innings. He's a right-handed pitcher who doesn't really throw a changeup. He's a right-handed pitcher giving up a 194 wOBA. Roof open in Milwaukee today. It's good hitting weather. Like this is a good game environment. We'll get Lindy's long balls here going. Spencer Steer, Kyle Keros, the two that I've got going so far. Again, you're going to miss a lot more home run plays than you hit. Like that's, that's going to be how this works. The great home run drought right here of 2026 from multiple weeks ago. Lot of pain. And then Casey Schmidt happened. Casey Schmidt changed my season. These back-to-back jacks on Saturday, Sunday got us back on track. And it was not perfect. Wasn't perfect at the beginning of this week. God knows that. Schmidt, Adamus in Wrigley, James Woods, same day. Nice to always see three consecutives showing up on a sheet. Like that's going to go well for you. Pinango on Sunday, C.J. Abrams on Sunday, Bowers on Monday, Olsen on Tuesday, Bush on Tuesday, Horwitz on Wednesday. Thursday was a cesspool of sadness and broken dreams until Luke really salvaged something for me. And sadly, I only played it for 0.1 units cuz I'm a [ __ ]. Anyway, up over 26 units. And so, we've got the Underdog card that's going to get added as well to Lindy's Long Walls. 0.5 units. Just a small play on three that I think are just massively, massively underrated for Underdog purposes. Always like to sling some of these in for pick 'em. Seager kind of dominating the board in that spot. We've nuked it a little bit. Uh, still beating Circa. Still beating Circa. Gisham, I talked about that's definitely going to be Underdog best available still. They came down a little bit. It's not that bad. Not that bad. Still best available, I think, in the entire market. It is 459 Gisham. And I'm feeling better about hitting weather there. For a guy who has an under ticket on that game, but Gisham can hit a home run and it could be one-nothing. That'd be ideal. And Jackson Holiday, I'm curious where his number moved to because he's the one that I thought was volatile. Oh, there's an 800 at Bet365 now. This was 696, I think, when I looked at it. Still some edge there at 800. 800. 550 up at MGM. If you play that, please just quit betting.
Anyway, we've got ourselves tons to get to on this program. Covered the, the broad strokes, but Jacob Misowski over eight and a half strikeouts. I said it last night. I thought it was close to pick 'em viable and we got plus money on it. Plus 105. I, I don't understand it. I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't. Still plus 104. You can get $39 of liquidity at Novig. That seems like a fun snipe. There's a lot of lefties in this lineup. Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, Scott, Crawford. Five projected lefties. And the righties, well, Turner strikes out. Boom. Doesn't really. Mutoo strikes out. Not a crazy amount. And Adele Garcia really strikes out. I, I give this guy 21 outs or, you know, even 18 outs, he could strike out half of them. That's nine. Napkin math. It's not that hard. It is insane how good Jacob Mizroski looks to me today. Got him closer to like 97, 98, I think was my strikeout number on him. We got plus money on eight and a half. Yeah, we click that button every time. Obviously, you can see the edge on the under. The under is not even remotely a conversation. Can he get shelled? I don't even know anymore. Like, can Jacob Mizowski get shelled? I'm probably talking him into getting shelled right now, but like he's been the best pitcher in baseball. He avoids hard contact. He does everything you wanted to have against the Phillies because they tend to have lefties, but they have a crazy high K rate versus righties. And that's with Alec Bowman there who really doesn't strike out. So, I thought I'd start there just because I can't believe how good these numbers look. I really can't. Best pitcher in baseball. As much as I love my boy Christopher Sanchez and he is absurdly good, Jacob Mizowski is absurdly good. Just is what it is. Guys can't even get the bat off their shoulders. Lowest swing percentage of anybody until you get to Bryce Elder. Can't even challenge 104. What are you going to do with 104? And people, nobody can hit a home run off of 104. I think Marsh clips him. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it works out for him. I feel like one of the lefties goes yard today. I mean, that's giving yourself a lot of, that's a lot of leeway. Herrera plus 700. Again, talked about the righties. I'm going to get to the righties. I think the righties in Target Field make some sense today, which is weird because Joe Ryan generally you're looking at lefty pop. I think it's righty pop I'm more interested in for a couple of different reasons. Let's jump there. We can, we can go around the horn. We don't have to go in order. Braxton Ashcraft, I'm probably going to leave off purely Miami. I do think Casey gets up to the six hole again. Obviously, I played his 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs. I doubt that exists anymore. I'd be like floored and shocked and all of the things if Owen Casey still existed. He has a stupid I in his name. Right. There we go. Minus 135. Yeah. I mean, we were going to, we, I would have [ __ ] nuked that card if I wasn't limited. I would just nuke that card. Should really work on accounts, man. Should really work on that. All right, PrizePicks. That was, I mean, you can't ask for a better square than Casey there if he's going to be in the sixth hole. And that's where he's projected at everywhere. Everywhere. US Labs everywhere. So, Owen Casey, as long as he's in the sixth hole, I mean, that's going to be nuclear value to do anything. And Bryce Miller, I don't really have a lot of interest in attacking him. Guy's been sublime so far. Zack Latell, obviously Luke Bradley goes without saying. Looking at Cole Young too. Hit that leadoff bomb yesterday. Didn't end up mattering. I did look at 250 Sodomr 2J Metal K. I did look at that. Definitely, definitely look at it.
We got a lot of outdoor baseball today. These are the days your boy thrives. These are the days that I live for. Outdoor baseball across the board. And, uh, let's go to that Minnesota game. Said I was going to Joe Ryan. I mean, that custom leaderboard I brought up. He sits just below it on the outer realm here. 278xWOBA, 269 WOBA, 27.3% K rate. But you might notice one thing that exists here that you have to go all the way to Jacob Deg Grom at 22nd in terms of xWOBA. He gives up barrels. Joe Ryan still gives up barrels. Joe Ryan also gives up hard hit. This is the highest hard hit amongst pitchers in the top 10. Again, he's having an unbelievable year. He's our best starter and it's not really remotely close. Like even if Pablo Lopez hadn't had his arm explode in preseason, Joe Ryan's our best pitcher. We know that. Everybody knows that. That's why Boston tried to get him. Thank God we didn't give him up. But also we gave up every bullpen arm and we have traveling Korsfield or in this case home Korsfield in that bullpen. So Joe Ryan gives up more barrels and our wind direction for today. We're blowing out to left. Blowing out to left. We cover factors a lot on this program. Again, baseball not played in the bubble is ideal for me. I do not like dome baseball. Never have. Never will. Will I still d like, will I still delve into the Rogers Center with the roof closed? Sure. Will I still delve into Miami from time to time? Sure. Globe Life? Sure. But I like baseball outdoors, the way God intended baseball to be. I think every team should have a roof just in case there's bad weather. But otherwise, I prefer strongly that the ball changes and that we have conditions change on a day-in, day-out basis. It keeps it fresh and interesting. That's the other part of the monotony of NBA play. Like other than elevation in Denver and Utah, like what are we really thinking about? Played on the same floor, same confines. You might be in LA and, you know, bang a couple of hotties while you're here. Might do that. Go to Scottsdale and, you know, rip it up and then go play in Phoenix. Like, you might go rip it up and do that. Live your life that way. I've seen that more than a time or two. But I'm telling you right now, outdoor baseball is fun because you get to do stuff like this. We have the rolling average here over the last three years. And for righties, it's not that bad for Target Field. And for lefties, it is bad. It is bad. Group it by homers. That's usually what I'm grouping it for. I guess technically over the three-year rolling average, the same there. We're getting to the summer months, though. And it's cooler there. 68 degrees today. But let's look at this year because this really encapsulates it. Minnesota 27th for lefty power amongst lefty homers, way down in the doldrums. And righties this year in this ballpark. Got to go through the exercises. Got to go through the exercises. Neutral. Pretty neutral. Don't forget we just got done playing baseball in March, April, May, and now we're getting June. This is like our first home series in a little bit for the Twinkies. And it's only 68 degrees, but that wind direction is not common. You normally see wind blowing out to right or in. We're getting a little bit different look. And Kyle Lehi will pay for some sins. Kyle Lehi is not good. Kyle Lehi would appear to give up ground balls. Not looking really at the home run category. Although Royce Lewis, there's a part of me that wants to 339 xISO. All ground ball contact. All ground ball contact. Everything across the board. On the right side, a little loft that exists here and there. And I'm still thinking about Royce Lewis. Again, I do think Royce Lewis is going to go on a little bit of a tear, but kind of talking about that. Obviously went berserk. Best hitter in Triple A this year. When he got demoted, it was an obvious reset button. Woke him up and I hope he rolls with it. But I think Kyle Lehi with some of these righties, interesting, but I think Joe Ryan is actually more interesting to target. So against lefties this year, 171 expected ISO, he's fixed a lot of the bugaboos. Last year 213 expected ISO. And righties, he's good. 30.4% 4% K rate, 123 expected ISO. But here's what I'm staring at. There's a lot of loft. Wind direction obviously favorable. And that barrel rate is actually concerning to me when it comes to keeping the ball in the yard every single time out. He does such a good job though that it's like a solo shot here, a solo shot there. Doesn't really affect him in terms of his long-term outlook. He's still going to look insane with these numbers across the board, but we're betting home runs. We're trying to make money. I don't love lefties in Target Field. Never have. A lot of lefties you're going to have to deal with if you're Joe Ryan today, but those aren't the ones that are interesting to me. Jordan Walker, Ivon Herrera. Those are the two that are interesting to me. And we're seeing, I would, I would argue some pretty low numbers on these guys or some pretty high numbers on these guys. Herrera plus 700. JK already pointed that one out. Jordan Walker 450. Beating Circa up. Beating up that ass. Didn't even actually see where Circa was here. Oh, way inside of it. We're going to play her. Yeah, we're going to play Herrera. We're going to play Herrera. I like them both. Again, we're looking, solo shot counts the same as a four as a Grandy, unless you're doing the Grandmotion, in which case they don't count the same, but we are constantly hunting for value and I think there's definite obvious value when you're talking about Circa, noted sharp bookmaker. 610 hell, identical number to Circa, mirroring each other, but that is definitely deployed. 610, 6, 650. There you go. Doable as well. Doable as well. Glad to help. Thank you, Lars Newborn. I, I like Lars Newar. I don't like him today. I don't like him at these prices in a ballpark where I don't think he's my optimal route. I don't like these prices on him. I don't like the prices on the lefty in a ballpark that, I mean, Lars Newark, can he go oppo? Sure. I mean, Herrera and Walker technically are more oppo taco guys themselves. Very low pull error percentages for both of them. Regardless of win direction, I think they're undervalued relative to Joe Ryan and the improvement he's had against lefties and how this ballpark plays. Typically feel pretty good about, pretty good about the Herrera pies. Don't feel good about Lars. Don't feel good about Weather Holt at these numbers. These numbers are just too short. And you go back a year. Yeah. Yeah, Joe Ryan gives up more power against lefties. Gives up more power this year against lefties. So, I get why they're there, but we're playing a game of assessing the ballpark and win direction and putting it all together with a bow. And I'm more interested in the righties. I kind of have an aversion to lefty power. I don't think I've bet Clo Cody Clemens one time this year. I have an aversion to lefty power in Target Field. Maybe it's a very loud bias, but it seems like the bias is true. Fourth worst park for home runs in baseball for left-handed power. Yeah. And Herrera was a quarter unit. Yeah. Quarter unit deployment. It's kind of the standard play on everything until it gets to like plus 1,000 or above or yesterday where there's only a limited amount of games. What we had seven games total, uh, with, uh, Atlanta, Chicago rained out. I fired and Horwitz. They were thinner plays than I typically would fire. So I just put, you know, 0.1 on each and obviously we got the bomb, which is a bummer because I missed my last three times with him but hit five times on him on the year and that includes a smash with Jack Kaggle on in the Underdog card, but, you know, point remains, still counts. I just had sex. I didn't just have sex. That'd be too good. I'd be in a lot better mood. I'd be in a lot better mood. Shane Baz, Griffin Canning. Hi gentlemen, how are you this fine day? No question, no question in my mind that Shane Baz, who had been reverse splitsy, is not going to enjoy his time in Baltimore if this continues to be his profile against lefties. 361 wOBA, 353 xWOBA, but the same headache exists every time we talk about the Padres. You really just have the two big boppers now. Will Wagner so far, I don't think we've covered Will Wagner on this program yet. So, I did a pretty deep dive on him the other day. Getting myself familiar. We got some hard-hitting guys that are starting to show up with the Padres. They, I mean, this, this season has been strange. They're like hovering around the 500 number now. And, um, I mean, San Francisco's rebuilding. Colorado's rebuilding. Like Colorado has some nice pieces now at least. And I'm liking this Cole character that they called up. I think he is a fascinating study, but Will Wagner so far, 0% hard hit, only four batted balls, but I think we're pretty confident in this changing sooner rather than later. Bat speed not anything to write home. But it appears to me it's going to some of his minor league data. The El Paso Chihuahuas. Okay. Chill. Pretty chill. Nothing special, but 381 OBP. You'd get down with a 381 OBP at the big league level. Not going to happen. But one can hope, one can dream. It's just good to have another lefty that exists in this lineup because it's generally just Merrill and Sheets that you talk about every single time against guys who struggle with lefties. Baltimore, a ballpark that despite Pete Alonzo murdering baseballs and of course he goes yard yesterday. I didn't even remotely look at him. I'm two and oh betting Pete Alonzo. So, I'm not going to pitch too much, but I Baltimore is just very difficult for righties relative to lefties. It is so much easier to be left-handed in Baltimore. Kobe Miles, somebody that stood out on Underdog. I don't love him for today, even though it was best available on Underdog. You don't have to play it just because it's best available. Don't have to play it just because it's best available. I didn't play it. So, I'm sure he's gonna go yaya now. But did like the holiday piece and I, I think Holiday is actually for consideration for us to play outright. Plus 8 hundo. Didn't like seeing a nine-hole home run yesterday. That was a little tilting. And Colin Cowser keeps hitting bombs, too. So, like he's not going anywhere there. Your best hope is that somebody like Adley Rushman gets a day off and you somehow get an upgrade there. But I don't bet a lot of nine-hole home runs and I think he's pretty viable. I think he's pretty viable here in this spot. Obviously, we got humid hot weather in Baltimore. Got a nice decent amount of wind direction going out to right. Should be fun. I'm going to hope I get Herrera at plus 675 on Calier Profitex. Be good stuff. I believe in you. Uh, if you are in the Dodgers division, you are rebuilding. That's generally how it works. Arizona's not rebuilding, but kind of have to by default. I don't love Rushman today. I'm You know what's weird? There's a lot of projection models that I like that value Adly Rushin a lot higher than I do when it comes to home runs because he should hit more home runs with a 15.8 degree launch angle, 47.4% hard hit, 293 expected batting average, especially when you think about Baltimore. But my thing with Adley and he's phenomenal as a baseball player. I don't want to take anything away from a guy who, you know, coming off of an abysmal season for him and for Gunnar Henderson last year. They can't both have an abysmal season. They are, I mean, there's a reason this guy was unanimous numero uno out of Oregon State. Like this guy is very, very good. He has three home runs from the left side. Only 78 plate appearances. Got dinged up obviously. I prefer him from the right side, but it's not a good ballpark when he faces lefties. Like Baltimore is not a good ballpark relative to what it is for left for, for, for left-handed power. So, you kind of run into this constant like, how do you even assess Adley on a day-in, day-out basis when the ballpark does play very, very differently across the two and he's doing like everything you'd want to see. Doing everything I'd want to see. Just very annoying, guys. He's very, very annoying. Gunner today for the hundth. His numbers are so short, man. I can't do plus 400. I, it's close. That's like right in the wheelhouse. You better have a strong reason that you would like it. And him hitting a 100th home run is not a strong reason. Can he hit a home run? Sure. Do I want to bet it at plus 400? No, I do not. No, no, I do not. I'm getting double the price, double the fun on Jackson Holiday, who has almost an identical batted ball profile in terms of hard hit and launch. You obviously get one fewer plate appearance when one guy's batting second, the other one's batting ninth. It's almost a full plate appearance, but is that the discrepancy of plus 800 and plus 400? I would argue no. 91.3, 15.37 homers. Look at him against a fastball. And Griffin Canning, for what it's worth. This is the research show. I say that a lot, but like it's true. Griffin Canning, hard hit extraordinaire. Lefties are having fun. We're really, we're really emphasizing the changeup for Seamer. Like that's really what you care about. From Griffin Canning against lefties. Throws a primary changeup and a fastball. The changeups had good results in terms of the hard hit profile. Not so much in the wOBA. This has just been nuclear bad. We're obviously looking to take a fastball to the moon. Knocks on a moon. Well, look at this. Jackson Holiday. I would argue these are pretty comparable, if not better than those for home runs. I'm not saying he's a better hitter. He might be long-term. I do think Jackson Holiday has a chance to be better than Gunnar Henderson. Call his dad, figure it out on a day-in, day-out basis. Day in, day-out basis. But Jackson Holiday, man, I think he looks better at the price, you know. [ __ ] it. [ __ ] it. [ __ ] do the thing, Eric. You're being a silly Sally. Is one fewer plate attempt between the two of them worth double the price? No, it is not. I don't need to be right today. I need to be right making correct bets that get value long term. There's a lot of red. There's a lot of times I'm going to be wrong about home runs. There's a lot of times I'm going to be wrong with home runs. There's a lot more red on my sheet than there is green. But you know what happens when it's green and you get value on 790 Brandon Marsh, 475 Ramon Lauraniano, 440 Cal Raleigh. Uh, may he rest in peace. Like, when is he coming back? There's a lot more red. And you know what? I am year after year after year profitable betting home runs because I really avoid betting things that are trying to be right today. I want to be right long term. C.J. Abrams, let's do this. C.J. Abrams Sunday plus 700. Let's find how many times I bet C.J. Abrams. And generally I have Chat GVT just tell me all of my stats because I just run it through that and then it gives it back to me. Codex is just a phenomenal thing. Abrams missed a home run. 575. Oh, that's a bummer. There's one. Let's find another. I know. I bet C.J. Abrams a lot before I hit. Here you go. Two. Three. Four. Five. I've bet C.J. Abrams a lot this season. Five times. Did I miss five home runs on C.J. Abrams? Is that it? Five times. I bet C.J. Abrams this season. I thought I had one more in there somewhere. I'm looking at all the red right now. Scrolling through. That's every home run that I have bet this season. I include Underdog parlays in there. Include everything. I, I am one and five betting C.J. Abrams home run this season. One for five. And you know what I am on him for the season? I am [ __ ] profitable betting C.J. Abrams home run because that's how odds [ __ ] work. That's what we do here. We're looking for value. We don't care about being right today. Otherwise, you know what I'd do every day? I would throw a two home run parlay of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Curts and Britt Rooker. Well, that's a terrible example because he [ __ ] sucks. But I would play the short odds guys, every day. And then I'd glorify it on Twitter and be like, "Look how special I am. Sign up for the Discord. Do what?" No, I'm here to make money. I'm here to make you money. And that requires making sure you know you're getting value. If you're not getting value, I'm doing my job wrong. If I'm trying to be right today, I'm betting Nick Curts at whatever the [ __ ] Nick Curts's price is at. Plus 175. Yeah. No. No. Although this is actually close to UV for what it's worth. I have them inside at plus 200. But the point is I am one for five betting C.J. Abrams this season. Jackson Holiday is double the price of Gunnar Henderson today. And he does not, he does not deserve to be double the price based on this to me. Be better. Don't try to be right today. Don't say, "Oh, I think so and so is going yard." Oh, you know, I think, oh, I think, uh, Jacob Misowski is going to go yard or somebody's going to go yard off of Jacob Msrowski today. The lefties that I walked into. Sure. Kyle Schwarber seems like a pretty good candidate. Kyle Schwarber is quite good against right-handed pitching. The problem with Kyle Schwarber is 325. 346 is actually interesting. Maybe I take back what I said. Maybe I take it back. But it's price and probability. Using information we have, knowing how it works, understanding that we get to play baseball outside and things change. Your opinion is allowed to change, but what you got to do is stay ahead of the game and get value. You don't have to be right today. I am quite confident Jackson Holiday does not hit a home run a lot of times today. But I am quite positive that if I bet Gunnar Henderson a hundred times in the exact circumstances today and I bet Jackson Holiday at plus 800 a hundred times in the exact circumstances today, I am making more money on Jackson Holiday than I am betting Gunnar Henderson. I drink your milkshake. I drink it up. If I have a straw and it goes all the way over here, I drink your milkshake. My guy Nard. Yeah, that was a Lindy explanation if I ever heard one. I drugs are bad. Okay. Oh, you're special. I, I, I did not even remotely look at Kolong and that was a problem. That was an oversight, I would say. What just happened? I don't know. Is Carter Jensen's mom hot? Let me see. Those are some knockers. Those are some tatas on Carter Jensen's mom. My lord. My goodness. This feels like one of them days. I hope it, I hope it's one of them days. Anyway, don't get sick on us now. No, no, I just got to switch out the zen. Really should quit that. Need to be done. Oh, hoppy minus 125 hit is back on MGM. Do I need to play that? You tend to know things. I tend to just bet whatever you put down because I have a feeling you know what you're looking at. Sure. I'll put 25 bucks on it quick. Carter Jensen's mom has got it going on. She's all alone and I waited for so long. Carter Jensen's mom, can't you see? You're not, you're the only one for me. I know I might be wrong. Your son didn't hit a home run the other day. What a loser. How dare he not hit a plus 500 home run for me. Mitchell going yard against Painter. I love that. Shout out. He is on the short end of my. So, all right. Somebody asked for this the other day and now people are talking about boosts that they have from soccer bets and [ __ ] like that, which I don't know if it's true or not. I don't know what is up or down, but the three most likely home runs for today are Nick Curts, Shay Langlers and Brent Rooker. They all play for the Athletics. If I had a different order than those three, you should probably question everything I do from here on out. Now, here's where it gets a little bit dicey cuz I have Luke at four. That seems wrong, but I have Luke break even like right around 230 and I have Shohei Otani longer than that at 250. So, I, I don't know what to tell you. I don't know if Otani ends up in that lineup. Maybe downgraded him a little too much. It's like Otani at plus 270 is actually like somewhat interesting. I haven't played anything inside of plus 300 in a long time. I think it's close. Part of it is that like generally speaking books know that they need to price these like people are going to play them anyway. People are going to bet Otani home run regardless of where you set those numbers. So, if I own a sports book, don't I set those numbers a lot shorter than what they should be? So, I'm always questioning my EV. I'm always questioning how I project home runs for these guys, which is why you rarely see Otani, Judge, Schwarber on my cards. And when you do, you best believe there's a damn good reason. Schwarber is 346 is interesting. 346 is very interesting. 325 Circa, 310 Penny. Part of me wants to do it. The other part of me thinks, why would I do that against Jacob Misowski?
All right, we, we are at like rapid fire time. All right, let's go bit by bit. Mitchell. I like Mitchell today. I generally like Mitchell a lot. I haven't bet him a lot this year. I did bet him in Kors. He hit one, two, three, four, five, six, seven bases without hitting a home run. Two doubles and a triple. That was hurtful. But he is plus 600. Garrett Mitchell is squarely square. Oh, he's just. Yeah. I need a new bicycle today. Also, daycare. I looked at what I'm going to be paying for daycare in four months. Daddy needs a new bicycle before he pays for daycare. Oh my god, how do people have kids? Why do, why do we have a kid? Daycare is a scam. Oh my god, daycare. It's also taking care of your child. So, like, you can't really put a price on it. And they know that. Oh, they know that. Daycare. What a Ponzi scheme. What an absolute Ponzi scheme daycare is. You want us to take care of your child? Here is the dollar amount. Make believe money. Holy [ __ ]. Just have them sit in the corner on a chair. Like, I don't know. I guess what did I have a daycare? I had a Nintendo at my daycare when I was like four, five, six. I got to, I played a lot of. What did I play? Played Super Mario 3 probably a thousand times. Probably a thousand times. But dude, what a Ponzi scheme. Talked about that with my wife today. I was like, "What? I have two mortgages. How am I going to, how am I going to pay for daycare? Might have to put her on stream. Just have her sit in here. Probably worth it. Techmobile played a lot of that. I think I was out of daycare in like eight. So, like Ken Griffey Jr. Presents Major League Baseball. I remember playing it like one time in daycare. Like earliest childhood memories, Disneyland, and then followed by Ken Griffy Jr. Presents Major League Baseball and NFL Blitz. That was the [ __ ]. Go to the arcade. Magic Castle was the name of our arcade, which very much sounds like a strip club. It is a strip club, but it's an arcade in Sou Falls, South Dakota, or it was an arcade. I don't think it's there anymore, but Magic Castle, my mom would give me 10 bucks and I would go straight to the NFL Blitz machine. That's all I played. And Mortal Kombat and Tekken, Tekken, and then got a Sony PlayStation and that was all she wrote. I played Tekken 2, three. So good. Yeah. Yeah. There's, there's no doubt. Daycare prices need to pay for it since like these people, man. The nerve to put that number on a page and be serious is actually, it's actually beyond belief. That was 30 years ago. Yeah. 30 years ago. I'm 38 now. Still chewing tobacco like a [ __ ] heathen, but whatever. Aladdin's Castle was your arcade. That's not, that's not bad. Aladdin's Castle. Lindy golf's good. I do. Thank you, Carter Jensen's mom. Look at that rack again. Oh, Jesus Christ. I hope that's you. I hope that's you. Speaking of the Royals lineup. Suspicious timing. Carter Jensen leading off again. I think that's going to be the norm going forward. Splitting Pasquatch and Garcia. I didn't love the Pasquatch to Kaggs. I thought that that was pretty easy for them to do something there. Perez down to the six hole. Aie Meisner Collins. I like the construction of this lineup. I always like having your switch hitter nine-hole where you can kind of do left, right, left, right, left, right, left, right, switch. Meisner righty. Pretty sure he's a righty. Not that I care against a, I'm not going to do anything about it. It's a lefty. Cool. Good talk. Glad we had it. So, left, left to finish things out at the bottom. One pull. That's hilarious. It's black. We got to work on our Excel baseball. Savant shouldn't have black. Should just be the brightest form of red. Should just be red washing over you like the sins of the people. It's funny to see zero and 100. I mean, talk about small sample size. You want to talk about small sample size? That is small sample size encapsulated. Five batted balls, zero pulled, one batted ball, pulled. That's hilarious. Anyway, we should probably find some more bets. I fired some stuff already on this program. I don't know if you've noticed. Don't know if you've noticed. Logan Hoppy hit. What a time to be alive. Thanks, J Metal K. Always nice when somebody else gives me a play. Know exactly who to blame. Uh, I have to blame myself for, well, all of this because I bet it here. Mitchell. Logan hops to it. Jackson Holiday plus 800. Ivon Herrera plus 700. I feel really good. You get one of those three to go yard and life is glorious. You know what that's called? Doubling up your money. More than doubling up your money. If one of the 700s or 800s hit. But, you know, double up your money with Mitchell. 75 in, 1.5 out. Yeah, that's how math works. Anyway, we got some bets going. We got some things popping. Popping each other's ass out. I already did that the other day. That's 21 Jump Street. All right. Kind of talked about the
weather there. I'm less inclined to like, I don't like my under as much, and I have CLV on it, which is weird. I just thought wind direction looks a little bit better than I wanted it to. Looks a little bit better.
Was pretty happy to get Gisham on Underdog at that price. Think he looks really good. Callahan. Oh, he hit two home runs yesterday. Well, can he hit one today? We'll take a look at his profile. That is nifty. Hi, Tyler Callahan. So, first thing I look at, bat speed. Yeah, we're not going to bet Tyler Callahan. We're not. We're not doing that. We're not. I find it impossible that we're getting good value on. Yeah. What are we doing? One of the worst home run plays you could possibly fire up today. Tyler Callahan. And of course, now that I said that, absolutely going yard off of Sandy. Oh, Sandy. Shout out my Greece fans out there. All three of you. Oh, Sandy. But now there's nowhere to hide. Put my love aside. I'm out of my head. Hopelessly devoted to you. Hopelessly devoted to you.
I got to think that that's the hottest a girl looked in a movie ever. Olivia Newton-John, bro. They're making a 24 Jump Street. I saw that. Skip 23. 23 Jump Street. I feel like that's just an homage to Jordan, like 23. I hear 23 Jump Street. It better have Michael Jordan in that movie. So, yeah, I don't mind that they went to 24. 24 Jump Street, you best have Ken Griffey Jr. That's what I think. That's that's how I feel about that.
Lindy has honey in his voice. I I don't think so. Holly Berry. Yes. Holly Berry Monster. Even them tatas. Oh my god. Does Anthony K really suck that bad against righties? If so, I'm thinking of loading up on bets, pies, total bases. Yeah, he does. He bad. He bad. What do we? What do we? What are we doing? And I don't think lefties are right off when their name show Otani or Kyle Tucker. Otani doesn't mind lefties. Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker. Left on left. Discount. Good hitting environment. 557 for your viewing pleasure. Probably going to be a pass, even though it is trumping circa and penny trumping it. It's a good way of balancing and checking what you have rod set at because if you have, you know, a dollar between you and circa and penny, you probably are doing it wrong as far as your fair odd your fair odds for. And I'm not saying that you can't find something. I'm always looking for it to beat him out. Always looking for it to beat him out. If it doesn't beat him out, probably not going on the card. Spoiler alert. I my brain is just kind of all over the place. We've been How long have we been on for? Scroll this. Check this. We've had an hour and five minute show. Should we call it a day for now? I don't have a lot more to talk about. We We should at least talk about this. Sodo, what are the Rockies going to roll out for their lineup? These are the questions I ask myself.
Have you talked about Suzaki? Uh, he's pitched really, really well. This is trappy. This is a tough spot. The White Sox have been good, man. The White Sox against righties 104 WRC plus. I mean, I said that they were going to be good. If you got a healthy Morami, it'd look ridiculous right now. We'd see 105 plus WRC plus. We'd see and they have a 163 ISO. That's not nothing. They just called up Jacob Gonzalez. He is very good. This other Montgomery fellow looks very good already. I mean, what the fudge, man. The Montgomery, that's the plural form of Montgomery's. They're not related. That would be cool. But Coulson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Del Vargas, formerly of the Dodgers, does he have revenge in his heart? We shall find out. And Jacob Gonzalez. I mean, we have some dudes hitting some baseballs at Triple A that are coming up and doing it immediately. Great hitting weather and Roki gives up hard hit, but he has he has started to turn it on and he got paid right from the get-go. The Dodgers know what they're doing better than you and me and then everybody knows. They are doing very well at the moment. They're they are quite stacked in Triple A. You just have Ryan Ward living out his days in Oklahoma City. They call him up. Oh yeah, there's a top 10 prospect, even though not really a prospect. He's been in baseball for a while now, but I've been on some under hits props for rookie Suzaki. Angels, the last one I'm thinking of, four and a half, he ends up pitching seven innings. That was a terrible sweat. God, that was a terrible sweat. But now back to back, three seven inning performances in his last five. You got to feel really good as a Dodger fan watching that, cuz the talent was never really in question. It's just that the walks were egregious. And he still got them popping up. Two, two, one, two. But not 5322. Getting guys on board then giving up hard contact. That's a recipe for disaster. You don't even have to give up a lot of hits and things can go south on you. But he's rounding into form. This is a very difficult spot though. Definitely the most difficult he's had in a while, cuz like look at some of the teams he's faced too. Angels, Phillies, Brewers. I mean, having two Angels seven inning outings doesn't really count as much for me. So, seven, just the two seven inning outings in his last four. Had six against the Cardinals, got hit up a little bit. Five against the Giants got hit up a little bit, but overall, I mean 1078. We're seeing some strikeouts come along for the ride now, too. Whip down to 126. Is it 150? Everybody's talking about targeting him in every single outing going out. Do I think he's elite? No. Do I think he's a really talented pitcher? Yes. Everybody has a split finger coming over from Japan now. Like everybody has a split finger. Like they teach that early on, cuz everybody's got a split finger. I don't love the barrels. Doing a pretty good job in terms of again, been on a lot of under hits. Pitcher heads. Could find the market. That'd be helpful. Don't even see it there. Pitcher walks. Pitches thrown. Runs. Where is it? I know it's here somewhere. Here. Fishy. Fishy. Fishy. Fishy. Here. Fishy. Total hits allowed. There you go. God, hurt my brain. Probably steering clear of the atmosphere over this one. Probably not great to have a lot of newbies up there, too. Don't know what to do. And White Sox lineup comes in as we're talking about it. Always helpful. Vargas Benendi Montgomery Montgomery. We got the Montgomery hitting next to each other. Maidth Gonzalez down to the seven holes. A little weird to me. Peters and Romo. Interesting. Going money. Monty money. Four fives. All right. It's basically exactly what we were looking at. Romo catching today. He is not good. Most catchers are not good, but you know, he's especially so.
Will the USA win tonight versus Farquay? I will not be betting that game. Might bet over goals, but I do not want to be laying anything there on USA. Lindy, I think you're elite and talented. A lot of good emojis. I do too. Thank you. Well, I'm I appreciate you. I don't mean I think I think I'm okay at this. I'm not the best in the world. Otherwise, I'd just sit behind my computer all day and never do anything other than print. Do a pretty good job of printing. Do a pretty good job, but I enjoy hanging out and I enjoy teaching. NBA picks tomorrow. Yes, we'll definitely cover some NBA on the MLB research show tomorrow.
Is there ever value in parlaying under home runs? Yes. If something is projected, you have something like if Nick Curts, you had him at 200 for your break even and you can get minus 180, that's value. And you parlay that with another like let's say Schwarber again. I think 346 is actually I didn't see that earlier. It's kind of on the fringe even against Mazaroski, but say you had Schwarber at 300 and you were able to get the under 280. Guess what? You parlay those two together. You have positive expected value. That's how it works. I know Lafy has gone on tangents about it in the past. I'm sure he does it on a day-to-day basis. But like you can bet things that are minus 250. I tend not to do a lot of it because I understand that um people screw it up. They'll bet like I'll I'll bet something that's minus 250 and they'll be like, "Oh, it's minus 300." That's fine, too. And it's not. That's 50 cents. That's a big difference. And if you have it projected at 275 or if the market is, you know, if you're top down and you're you're betting something minus 300 when you could have easily gotten it at 270, 280, what are you doing? Um, but yeah, there's value in parlaying under home runs. You just got to understand, too, that you can parlay three of them and if one hits, you're dead. That's how parlays work. So, kind of exists.
Valenuela or Springer? Cam Smith or Walker? Uh, I think Alejandro Kirk is going to catch today. I don't think Valenuela is going to be in the lineup. I'm pretty sure I saw Alejandro Kirk is going to be back. So, has Brandon Valenuela. I think Alejandro Kirk catches today. So, I don't think this is correct. See if I can find that news. I know. I saw it. I'm not a liar. I wouldn't just say Here you go. Alejandro Kirk activated off IL. Milton Bar Show 10-day IL. I think Alejandro Kirk. Well, I'm not on Ryan Weathers. I saw Alejandro Kirk was going to be close to back. I put him in the lineup. I put him at five. I put him in the five hole for today in my projected lineup. So I don't think Valenuela ends up out there. Maybe he does because, you know, whatever. But Alejandro Kirk's your day-in-day-out catcher. He is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He is fat as [ __ ] but he is good at baseball. Yeah. So, I don't think Valenuela, despite that he's had some good stuff going on, I'm pretty sure Kirk I'm pretty sure Kirk is the catcher today. So, uh, answer there is Springer and then Cam Smith or Walker. I don't really like either in this spot either. AA has like a 50% ground ball percentage. Covered him quite a bit last night because I am on the Kansas City money line for a small play. He's been very good against righties. Don't think there's a lot to mine out of here. No. Camp Smith at the prices for sure. Not just because it's way more, but it's like way way more. I just think it's pretty unlikely a VA gets hit up by a righty. Obviously, I like the ballpark. I like the ballpark in the new configuration. Walker, Cam Smith. I prefer Cam Smith, but prefer is a weird word when I don't have interest in betting either.
Have you profiled Braden Montgomery? Yes, I have. But I can do it here too. Just for you, my lady. I mean 85.7% hard hit, that's not going to maintain, but league average bat speed, obviously squaring it up, and I think we're going to see a strikeout rate come up. So one thing you do a lot, or I do a lot, is I'm always kind of seeing resip steamer the bat, a lot of projection sources that I trust where they're going to land on a guy, and they've all got him around a 30% K rate so far. 22.2%. Say he's going to strike out a lot, a lot more than he is right now. 556 ISO, he'll be the best hitter in baseball if he does that. So, none of that is indicative of where they've got him. They're very low on Braden Montgomery relative to anything you see to start off. I think once teams start to figure out how to pitch to him, going to be tough. I mean, he's had over a 130 WRC plus at every level of baseball, and he's sitting down here in the 90s everywhere at every projection source. The bat, the bad x, steamer, zips. Does he have power? Yes. Did he get a $5 million signing bonus as a top 12 pick? Yes, he did. He would appear very good at baseball. 300 WRC plus. I mean, he's exactly what the White Sox need. They need as much righty power as possible to help out the lefty power they obviously have. They have Coulson Montgomery. They have Morami. Morami got paid. Montgomery is going to get paid. And Jacob Gonzalez is lovely, but Jacob Gonzalez is like a luxury item. Brandon Montgomery can do a lot for you if he can develop. Now, he gets walked a lot. That obviously is going to change, too, but he's going to strike out a lot more. And against a guy like Roki, there's definitely some power that's leaked in for Roki, even against righties. Lefties pretty tame there. Obviously 339 WO relative to 316 expected numbers higher. That's typical what you're going to see for a righty. Nothing crazy sticking out. You go back a season, obviously there were some bullpen reliever appearances, a majority reliever appearances, all reliever appearances in the uh postseason, but you definitely have a guy against righties that he's he's starting to get the strikeout rate you were thinking about. Starting to be one of those guys. I I think it's very difficult today. But do I like the outterm of the the the outlook of Braden Montgomery? Switch hitter Braden Montgomery. Sure. Looks like he is enjoying himself hitting against righties at the moment, but this is five plate appearances. And they're already treating him like he's elite. And I think regression is very, very due on the numbers now. I think everybody with a pulse does, but maybe he ends up being one of the best hitters in baseball, but he's already kind of priced like it. Why would like I just I don't see any value on anything but unders. Probably don't want to take under a base at plus 130. But I'm definitely not taking a hit for him at minus 160. So there's that. Hopefully that helps. But yeah, we've gone through Braden Montgomery before, but it's good to good to go through the motions of it. I mean, having a ridiculous year at Triple A switch hitter does a lot of good things for you. A lot of good things. But they really need him to be good from the right side. They have all the lefties that you need. They have all the lefties. They have guys who, you know, Antinachi gets on base. Tristan Peters can slap it out there a little bit. Nothing crazy by any means. Ben Tendy, but Montgomery is a luxury or I mean they just need him to be exceptional from the right side. Jacob Gonzalez lefty purely. So, there is that. Later, y'all. Later.
Michael. I really like Vargas home run. Looked at it. Probably won't do it. His bases was close. Plus 129. It's close. 135. Close. Plus 140. Now, now we're talking. Now we're talking. We're just having a conversation. I do not like Miguel Vargas at his price getting a home run. Sure. Don't think there's enough bang for the buck there. Not that somebody again, people are positive EV all the time at plus 425. I just don't think he is against Roki if Roi's made these improvements.
All right, let's call it a day, friends. It's good times to be checking out the odd chopper tools. Obviously, we got Baby Lenny 50 that is rocking in the free world down at the link below. And then Horowitz 50 last day to take advantage if you guys want to jump into the Discord. 50% off, less than a dollar a day. Horowitz 50 for new subs. Great opportunity to jump in. Come kick it with a very sharp community that I'm very, very proud of minus Cuck Tim, who is gone. So, there's that. Guys, this was a fun show. Enjoyable to put some bets together to recap for the people. Garrett Mitchell home run. That's enjoyable. Logan Hoppy getting a hit. Shout out J Metal K. Jackson Holiday plus 800. Like that. Ivon Herrera plus 700. Think that's a sharp one. Don't think a lot of people are targeting Joe Ryan. And uh think Joe Ryan you can still target a little bit. How about a crazy home run parlay with some lefties in our lives? LL Lindy's leans likes locks. Oh, look at that. My daughter's initials. Llaya Lin Linquest. There you go. We got ourselves uh yeah, this prize fix card I would have just hammered last night. Would have hammered that. Hammered it. I don't think you can get anything remotely close to that right now. 546 we got better than that yesterday. Better than that yesterday. Nicolola still hanging out there minus 115. That's weird to me. Luke did a little sweetener on Luke RBI because of everybody in front of him. XOBA for days. You guys want to see that? Promise I'm doing the work. Promise we're going through it on a day-in-day-out basis. Lot of exobas that should be in front of him. We have Luke with the highest of everybody. But Randy Rosarena, Julio Rodriguez, Cole Young, all sitting north of 330, Josh Naylor 327. Those are four really good people to have hit in front of you when you're trying to accumulate an RBI. It's one of the shorter RBI plays on the board and I don't even care. It's not short enough. Those feel like the sharp ones. And Zack Latell is just paying for sin sooner rather than later. You get on base, you get RBI opportunities. Luke can hit a homer and cover both of those for us. Oh, speaking of Luke to hit a home run, he's in the fray. Not the band, the Frey. That would be weird. Mike Thirstston hit a parlay. It was really cool. I tailed it. That was fun. Go team. Kyle Keros get a little bit better than me. Get a little bit better than me. Cody Clemens, one and a half hits plus runs plus RBIs. Still playable at Ben MGM. Still playable. You can join in on that. No longer on prize pick. It is in that prize pick card. Cory Seager. Seager. What a dumb price that was. You can get minus 25 at Bet MGM. I don't know how. I don't know how. Way north of that number on one and a half hits at plus runs plus RBIs. That's why it's for a half unit. Royals small play there that exists. We got Yankees or Blue Jays. I would keep this off for now. I would be keeping that off. I know it has CLV. I I don't care. I don't care that it has CLV. Not if you can get in at Profitex there. Beating all your normie public books there. There CLV and I still would encourage you to maybe leave that off for now.
Spencer Steer home run. I hope you got that that alert. I mean, just continues to crash. It should continue to crash. I mean, these numbers are absurd for Spencer Steer. Would you like to see them? It's kind of recapping that I am not just blindly talking about [ __ ] He looks nuclear against Rod today. Looks absolutely nuclear. Not that Rod's even giving up a crazy amount of righty power. It's that the ones that he does tend to leave the yard because he's throwing a ton of fastballs. And you know, most people throw out primary fastballs. That's not special. But it's like 50% of what he does and then throwing a changeup along with it. Let's avoid that, shall we? Spencer Steer. That'd be great. Even though against the changeup here, Spencer Steer 250 expected ISO still and a homer versus it. So, not exactly drawing dead. Doesn't strike out. Been one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties this year. Very, very quietly. And rounding it out, St. Diago whales vagina. We like that over very much. We like that over very, very, very, very much. That's why it's getting CLV like crazy. We like that one. You can I'd play nine still. Jacob Misraki. My favorite play of the day. Half unit deployed there. Can't believe there's a plus 111 at Novig. That is just absurd. Destroying every public books now. So there's that.
Guys, thank you so much for tuning in. I'll be back tomorrow. Thoughts on Jordan Walker? We talked about him at the beginning of the program. You could go back and listen to some of that, but uh I don't like his price relative to Ivon Herrera, but I still think he's in play. Good ballpark for righty power, Target Field with this wind direction and pretty neutral for righties, but more of a cavern for lefties. And we're seeing a lot of the lefties get lower numbers and I don't necessarily agree with it. There's that. Also calling Marsh to be the one to do it against Lay Miz. One day more two fall 601. I feel like all Hugh Jackman does. I'm a man who does a thing. Here I am. Oh, because I'm free. All right, that's going to do it for me. Have a great weekend. If you don't tune in to the MLB Research Show, which you should, I'm going to be on Live Before Lock at 600 PM Eastern, 3 p.m. Pacific, or on the Stoastic YouTube channel. And I'm going to go make some more bets and eat some lunch. Love you guys. Thank you for tuning in. Bye.