But FUNDAMENTALS Say SILVER should MOON

What's up, folks? I hope you're all having another blessed weekend here in a Saturday afternoon in Singapore. Today, we're going to talk about something that trips a lot of people up. And it's really frustrating for me to see this because when it happens to people, it really prevents them from doing better. And that really, it's really tough for me to see. And so today's topic is going to revolve around what people think should happen and what is actually happening, and how that trips you up. And I'm going to talk about that in two different markets. One is the equities and stock market. And the other one is in the commodities, and primarily in the silver and gold markets. And I'm going to show you what happens and what I'm doing to try and actually use that to my advantage rather than it taking me down with the ship and me getting angry about it. So, let's get at it.

Now, there's some discussion earlier about the silver investors suffering here, but really this ain't nothing compared to our crypto bros. Our crypto bros, they used to, you know, 95, 90, 99% down. I mean, silver had 25, maybe 40% down. Ah, crypto bros just be like, you know, hold my beer. This ain't nothing. So, just keep that in mind if you're sitting on some losses here that, you know, and I'm not trying to poo poo the crypto bros here, but they've been through a lot worse. And so you just got to manage your risk and position sizes so that you won't be crying like this lady over here. Whereas this dude is just like, "Yo, man, it's all good."

I also want to bring up, you know, this is something that is going on. I've been talking about people like Tom Lee and people who blindly follow guys like Tom Lee. You could get into a disastrous situation because, as we know, he's been saying Ethereum is going to hit some strati-stratos, you know, stratospheric numbers, which clearly it didn't, and he's down quite a bit.

But the point here I'm saying is that nobody's perfect, but when you start saying a lot of different things and cherry-picking the things that you said right, and kind of deleting the things that you say wrong, it really paints this picture that many people will fall prey to. And it's not good if you're one of those people who fall prey to that because you might think that it's gospel what the person is saying, and then you know, you go take bigger and bigger risks in it, and then you could get, you can get whitewashed, and you can get completely taken down by that. So, just exercise caution when they're starting to play politics. It gets very dangerous. Sooner or later, you're going to get something right, and then you're going to, but you see that, that's why you get in trouble.

So, just, I'm just saying, that's why I don't try to predict things. It's very hard to be consistently correct in predicting things. You just, it's not, it's not going to happen. And I don't do that. You know, I'll have a base case which can change because data comes in, and you change and update your base case. You don't retrofit change your base case because something happened and now you have to go back and change everything. You change your base case because that's actually part of the system. The system, the equation is to be changing things all the time. And so you change it because that's part of the game. And what you do is you take in data as it comes in, and you adjust, and you trade and invest what's in front of you. You don't predict what's going to happen in a month or in half a year or a year and then stick to that. And then if it changes, then you have to be forced to back change and maybe delete what you said earlier. That's not the way.

And people who do that, they might look good, and that's what people like to see, and that's how they get followers, and they make money by charging you courses and all this and that, but that's just, be careful about that. That, that is something I absolutely do not do. And when you see people doing that, you just, you know, Kathy Wood or any one of them, any one of them, right? They, no, don't do that. Even the bears, they'll be wrong for a long time, and they'll be right. But the whole time they've been wrong, you can be losing all your money. All the perma bears out there. That's why I say never be a perma bear or a perma bull. But more importantly, never get married to some narrative or something and then fight that like a religion to the death while you're losing money. That's not the point here. The point is, again, not to be right or wrong. The point is to make money. Just keep that in mind. People lose their shirts over this.

Now, one of the things we're going to start off with the commodities market, particularly in silver and gold. And one of the things that came out last week was this huge short position by a Chinese billionaire that has made Chinese media and has been, you know, taking the internet by storm that he was shorting, he had a huge naked short position in the Shanghai exchanges, and that was driving the silver prices. It gap down in Shanghai for a couple of days, three days in fact, it gapped down to the limit, and this individual is being blamed, and I'm sure that was definitely part of the involvement of what was going on. But the fact that the media, like in Hong Kong media, is showing this, is that telling you he's a marked man now? This individual is, is going to be like a marked man, like Jack Ma was by the Chinese government. Chinese authorities are letting the headlines run in this. And if you know Chinese history and the way they handle these types of situations, that means he's a marked man. So, I mean, he's a reclusive guy, you know, he doesn't talk a lot, he has billions. But I would be very, very interested to see what will happen to him. My, my take is that it is in fact going to be like a Jack Ma situation where he's going to be, you know, reschooled, to put it bluntly.

Now, what did he do? So, he, he bought a, a huge short position of something to the equivalent of 400 tons of silver, whereas the Shanghai warehouse has around, around that. So, basically, he shorted more than is what is available in the vault. And, you know, when you short something, you need to cover it later on, so you need to buy it back. This is a problem, right? This individual, who now has been basically restricted, and he, he hasn't been, uh, so, let me to say he's been banned, and he can't do anything for a whole month. That, that's actually not true. The, the, the, the correct thing that happened is he was restricted for those contracts where he already had these naked shorts to add any more to those. So, he's been restricted in increasing essentially the short positions that he has. It's not that he's been banned or he can't do anything on exchanges or he can't do any trades. It's just those positions, basically, they told them, look, that's it. You can't add to those short positions, but it's not like he can't do anything. Okay? So, it's just keep that in mind when you start hearing all these headlines, 'cause then they'll go off and write some stock articles about how this is going to all unwind and so forth. And there is merit to some of these issues, but just be clear on the, the, the, the actual details. So, obviously, if you create a short position that's greater than the supply in the exchange vaults, that's going to be a problem. There's no denying that. That's why it's naked short.

And this just came out a couple hours ago where there were five more accounts that were also restricted, you know, from adding again, similarly, from adding to their existing those contracts. So, what it seems like is the, the, the Chinese authorities are indeed clamping down on short, you know, these contracts which are huge short positions from building up, right? So, that is in fact factually happening. That, that is, uh, undeniable. These are information and news updates coming straight out of the exchanges themselves, so we, we can believe that without any, but the extent of them being banned from doing anything, that, that's also not true.

So, the fundamentals of which I'm going to start talking about, which you are aware of, is that there is a flight of gold going away from the exchange vaults. This is the Shanghai silver stock. Okay, weekly data as of the end of basically last month, January. And you can see the dwindling supply. Okay. So, the, the request to take silver and ask for silver physical delivery out of the futures market and also the, the gold exchange SG and SHFE is increasing, meaning the supply of silver stock in their vaults are going down. This is also true with the western world, with Comex, and, and the same thing is happening where more and more record amounts compared to previous years are being demanded in physical delivery rather than rolling over into more paper. And that is a, a simple and fundamental truth of what's going on with the silver commodity market.

And here's where people get hung up. We know that there is this situation where the paper representation of the underlying asset, which is silver or gold, is not being consistent with the dynamics of the actual underlying asset's supply and demand story, where there is a big discrepancy and imbalance between supply and demand. Namely, there is a lot of demand for silver, and there's not enough supply to go around. We know this because, as you know, silver is something that's mined as a byproduct. You know, they're not mining only for silver. Like, the supply of silver comes because they're mining other stuff, and as a byproduct of mining the other stuff, they get silver as well. They put that together. So, the, the supply of silver being pulled out of the ground is made that way as more of a byproduct, and that's why it's not just going to ramp up and automatically you turn it to 10 and you'll have a lot more silver. That's not going to happen. So, that's the backdrop of the supply constriction. Whereas the demand side of the equation has risen because of EV batteries and AI data infrastructure. The need for silver has risen in this digital age. That's also a fact, and that's probably not just going to disappear overnight. Now, you can make the case that they'll find other, the price of silver goes high, they'll find a replacement, uh, material like what happened with, let's say, the lithium story, or, you know, they'll find if it gets too expensive, they'll find ways because humans innovate, and they'll not have to pay, you know, demand destruction through innovation of the underlying metal, in this case, silver. Yes, you can, but that also, that does not happen overnight. So, in essence, it is in fact true that the fundamental story of the silver commodity has not changed whatsoever, and if it does change, it's not going to happen overnight. These are facts that we can live and sleep by. Absolutely 100%. Okay. So, that's what's going on there.

We also know on the paper market where we're, where it's more of the casino here rather than manufacturing and all that industrial type of market dynamics in the supply of the actual commodity itself. When you go into the paper representation, the derivatives market of the underlying asset, which is the paper futures of silver, there's all kinds of casino type of activity going on, which is very different than what's going on with the underlying asset. And as we've seen, that had a huge run up. It got really hot. You, because you can trade paper really easily. There's high liquidity, and you can create more paper out of thin air to represent the underlying asset. Things got way overheated, and then it crashed, and then it crashed really hard. And so, on the paper side of the equation, there's lots of imbalances that are being worked out. And these imbalances can be magnified many, many, many orders of magnitudes greater than what's going on with the underlying asset because it is a derivative, the inverted pyramid, right? The one silver thing turns into a 100 paper representations of that silver thing. A small move here will be 100 times bigger in the paper market. So, you get this huge pendulum swinging. That's what's going on with the paper markets.

So, everything I said, you know, right now, what, what the problem here is, you think because, and in the end, fundamentals will always win. In the end, 100% fundamentals will always beat out whatever is going on short term on the paper market. That's the way it always works out 100% of the time, and it's going to be that way this time around. And so, if we know that the fundamental story has not changed, and in fact, this is going to, you know, overtake the silver market again, for gold market, gold is a little bit more financial, right? Because it is safe haven asset that plays a bigger role in the gold situation with the central banks and all that. But even if the fundamentals going to win, you got to go through this clearing process of, of washing out all the excesses that's been going on with the paper game.

And that this, this is where, you know, so you can't ignore this with what's going on with the paper game because if you do, what happens is you get, you can get wiped out. It gets scary, up, down 20, 30, 40%. Don't get caught up in that, is, is my point. And it can take longer than you think it should, and you can get angry. The fundamentals say this, yes, the fundamental is right. It's going to eventually do it, but it can take longer. Your time, you don't know this time horizon. It usually takes longer than you think. And this is where people start getting angry and angrier. It's like, hey, but the fundamentals say prices shouldn't be going down. Should be going up. Should be going up. There's supply demand. People taking silver out of the vaults. How is the prices not going up? Why is it continuing to crash? Oh, this is a big buying opportunity. And then it goes down further. Get angrier. Fundamentals. Why? This is what I mean. It can take a while. It, it can. It doesn't have to, but it can.

And during that time, play the paper markets. Play the paper markets. That's my thing. Or if you want to just shut the lights off and go off. You could do just, I'm going to hold till 100 years. That's fine, too. But you really got to shut the lights off and walk away. Because if you start looking at what's going day to day or week to week, you could get, you can get bamboozled, get scared about what's going on and do something that you know, in the later, in the latter, you know, stages, you're going to look back and be like, damn, I should, that was stupid. So, that's my point of this episode. Just because the fundamentals say something doesn't mean that's going to happen. And you get angry and angry. You trade against it, and you get, and, and it go, it goes against every logic, right? And then you just, you just, ah, don't do that.

So, let's, let's go back. So, the fundamentals are very clear here. The supply is dwindling. The demand is going up. This is eventually going to make the price of silver and gold go up in the long run. That's why I'm a long-term secular bull in precious metals market. Absolutely. But we got to clear out all the paper stuff first. And that could mean a lot of volatility, and it could take usually longer than you think, which is why people get angry. Now, how long is it going to take? Could be weeks, could be months. It's not going to be years. That much I don't think.

So, again, fundamentals this. Yes, it's true. There's a lot of money. Look, everybody's talking about this March 2026 delivery price drop there. You know, people like, you know, there are different analysts saying, look, there's going to be this huge shortfall, right? Crisis demand meets 100, 429 versus 100. What, this is going to, this is not going to be resolved. Ah, the world's ending. It's true.

Okay, let me, let me again, if analysts on YouTube and X know about this, and I shared this on the Discord. If the analysts and YouTube people know about this, then 100% guaranteed the executives in all the exchanges around the world also know about this for sure. Okay. Okay. Now, these people, these, they're, they're executives, that's why they're executives in their title. These people in the US, in London, in China, in India, they are all connected to each other, just like the central bankers around the world. They all are in close contact, and they know what's going on. That's why they, they fly the material around the exchanges. Either if it's urgent by plane, or if it's not by ship, they send it around. They know exactly what's going on. They, I'm guaranteeing you, have had a ton of board meetings to discuss because they're the first to know. I mean, who knows first? They do. Why? They get the order from their clients that they want, the clients want to get it delivered in physical. So, they, they're the first to know if everybody, and they're all so, and they have meetings after. So, by the time you've, you've read this from YouTube or X, they've already noodled through this way, way, way, way before because they're the first people to know about the incoming demand for physical delivery. For sure, they have a plan. They have a backup plan, and they have a backup plan to the backup plan. For sure, they've thought this through to the nth degree. So, if we're going to sit here pretending and thinking that, you know, oh, there's no resolution, no, they absolutely have a way out of this for sure, and it's a coordinated way out of this.

And keep in mind, these people that we're talking about, these executives or executives, they actually create the rules for the game that we are all abiding by and playing around with. They create the rules of the game, which means they can change the rules of the game in an instant, which they do, for example, margin requirements. So, when you have the ability to change the rules of the game, and you have the first view of transparency of any of these delivery requests and physical, you absolutely have, you're basically the casino. You know everything before everybody else knows, and you have the ability to change the rules of the game. So, to sit here and say, "Yeah, it is concerning." Yeah, absolutely. But to believe that they don't have plans and we're going to finally stick it to them, it is a possibility, but it's a very low probability event 'cause the casino always wins. 99 times out of 100, the casino will win. And this is no different than all those other 99 times.

So, I know it's, it's people like, you know, this whole conspiracy. You know, people when they go out like the, the guy in Africa who's the new Noah's ark and the world is ending and he created the, you know, Noah's ark and he got, you know, tens of thousands of followers, got sued by the way. They like those stories like apocalyptic endings. The world is ending next week. These types of stories because it, it, it, it goes into humanity. We, it's like a, it's like a soft, a secret reset button we have in ourselves. We were just drawn to it, right? The world is ending tomorrow, so I'm going to follow. This is how all the cult leaders attract huge audiences. And it's the same thing here. Oh, it's going to blow up. This is, Yes, it may. But people are drawn to that. And then, but the bad thing is it's all right to be drawn there, but the bad thing is it's like a once in a 100, 200 year event. And if you're going to bet everything and pretend you're going to be able to time that once in a 100 or 200 year event and dump all your assets into that, the odds are against you because of the time length involved. They eventually do happen. Eventually there is a great flood. Eventually there is a Noah situation, Noah ark, Noah's ark situation. Eventually a currency will die, a world reserve. But these things happen like once every what, 100, 20 years type of event. It might not even happen in your entire lifetime. So, even if it does happen, the time horizon is so huge. And then to believe that you're, you're going to be able to pinpoint that and dump all your assets into it is a very, very, very risky move. And I would highly recommend myself not to do that. Which is why I don't do that. Even if I'm preparing for that possibility, I don't do that. And you know, people who do that are running a high risk in my opinion.

So, going back to this, it is not a good situation. They will have plans to handle this. They have plans within plans and backup plans for the backup plans because they can change the rules of the game in the snap of a finger. And trust me, like I've been saying, they will. They will.

Now, other fundamental things to look at, this is, these are all supplanting reasons why in the long run, perhaps in few weeks or in months, gold, silver, and gold prices will continue to go up. I, I believe so. I believe so. Look at the leasing rates for silver. It's, it's shot back up that we just had a huge crash in silver. Yet the lease rates have shot back up. Think about huge crash now. But to lease out your silver, you're demanding higher interest rates. People are willing to pay higher interest rates for you to lease your silver out even as it crashed 30, 40%. Right? Okay. Follow me here.

Now, on top of that, now this is, now we're going to start melding into the paper market from, from the fundamentals. Now, there's the bridge and link into the paper markets. Okay, guys, while that's happening, the call options, open interest for call options is going up as well. While the turnover is now going down. Okay, so we're making the transition here into the derivatives and the paper markets here. What is that telling us? Well, what it's telling you is even as the price of silver is crashing, call options are going up while the turnover is collapsing. Without getting into all fancy schmancy Greek stuff, the bottom line is this is a negative gamma squeeze from the dealers. What that means is if there is a covering going on where they have to cover, the dealers who are net short have to cover as prices if they continue to go up, which they're slowly starting to rebound in silver, that could spark an upwards boom for the prices to shoot back up. The right, right. I'm showing you the, the actual data that's telling you the ingredients for the recipe for a, for a boom back in the derivative pricing of, of silver. The ingredients are there, right? How we going to cook it? Okay, we don't know. It's not guaranteed, but the ingredient, you can see, you can see with, with, with the negative gamma potential blow up here from the dealers, right? I mean, it's out there. If you, if you look, you can see it. So, here it is. We're, we're starting to see that here.

So, what does that mean? Well, and, and, and Okay. Okay. So, here we go. Okay. So, this is what happened with nickel in 2022. I don't know how many of you know this, studied this, were trading back then, but in 2022, we, we had a situation with the commodity of nickel. Nickel is not a huge market like gold or, you know, it's a lot smaller market. However, however, it tells you what can happen.

Now, what happened was back then, a large Chinese nickel producer, I think it's Sing Sha, they started creating and building up a short position, according to them at the time, to hedge their nickel production. So, they're a producer of nickel, and, you know, just like oil, they, they will, they'll create positions in the paper market to alleviate risk of price fluctuations as they generate or, you know, produce the metal and sell it in the open metals market. So, they were building this, this short position, but that short position was quite large, and then many people were saying it was so large eventually that it was a speculative short position, not anymore to hedge their production of nickel, but to actually generate through betting basically with their huge short position on the price of nickel going down. So, that happened in 2022, and what happened in March was that prices of nickel started going up, and that caused this huge short position to quickly get on. It was a naked short position by the Chinese nickel producer, and it caused them to basically have their naked short position to go bankrupt. I mean, they couldn't hit the margin calls, and that just completely, they were short more than what the supply, very similar to what you hear about what's going on with silver. And at one point in March, I believe March 22 or somewhere around there, you know, it blew up. It blew up. There wasn't enough supply in the London's metal. This happened in the LME, the London's metal exchange. You want to, I suggest you actually go read about it, Google and read it. But basically, it blew up, and prices of nickel doubled and then, and then some in within one, two days. And if you look at this, I mean, it, it was, it was this crazy spike that happened with, look at this daily candle. Like, this is normal behavior, and then it just did this, and the LME back then did not have circuit breakers, and they made the mistake for number one of not having circuit breaking. Number two, they open the market back up, and, and, and then it just, it just exploded, right?

And then what happened was the next couple of trading sessions, they did implement circuit breaker. The moment they opened it up, it hit limit down, limit down in a row. So, no, look at the volume. No volume. The moment it opened, people tried to unload at this high price. Circuit breaker hit. No volume, no liquidity, shut down. And that happened one, two, three, four days in a row. Limit down, limit down, limit down, limit down. Nobody was basically able to sell at this price until it went back down. And then, so my point here is even when it did rupture and did explode, nobody was able to take advantage of it. Very, very, very few people were able to take advantage of it because what happened was the moment it opened, it hit the, the strike price was market limit down, and the one or two people who were able to trade at that, that strike price was it, every, all 99.9% weren't able to try it at that price until it just went down, and then now it went back down to normal.

And so, again, if you're one of those people thinking, yeah, I'm going to trade because com's going to blow up, I'm going to make a killing, this story is to show you that even if it, even if it did, let's say the backup plan to the backup plan blew up, and then even if that were to happen, and they shut it down, open because of these limit down rules they've put in now and limit up rules basically going both ways, you're not going to be able to take advantage of it. Yeah, sure it goes up, but you, you throw the order in, it's not going to happen. It's not going to get executed. And by the time it can execute with the right amount of liquidity, without those rules, it's already gash. You already lost out. Do you see what I mean? So, don't do that. Like, again, they control the rules of the g. They can change the rules of the game, and they'll change it to their advantage. They can undo trades. You put in a trade to do it at this strike price, never gets fulfilled, or if it gets fulfilled, they'll reverse it and say, "Well, you know, it was problematic," and you won't make money. So, while it makes for a great story and for people to do the pied piper thing like, "Oh, the world's ending tomorrow. Going to follow you," type of when even if it does end, you know, if even if the apocalyptic ending happen, you're probably not going to make any money off it, and we've seen, and that's just one case, nickel. I mean, there's many, many, many, many cases of this in history if you go and study. So, I'm just saying like, you know, this, this apocalyptic ending, I'm going to make a ton of money because first of all, the timing, right, like I said earlier, and then second of all, even if you timed it right, they change the rules, and you're not going to make money off it, right? So, just, just keep those things in check as you follow pi pipers who say the end is near. They've been saying the end is near for the dollar for how many decades now? Still around. Now, I do think it's going to end probably in my lifetime. I'm betting that. But I'm not know down to the year when that's happening now. I'm not going to lose my shirt trying to do that. All right. So, let's move, move back on.

So, this was a very interesting, uh, chart that, uh, somebody on the Discord shared, and I, and I looked into it, and it is legitimate from this account OPI metals over on X. The source I verified is actually from the CFTC and CME, and what this chart is telling you are, is that US banks are now net long silver. They are now net long. In other words, they covered their shorts. Okay, so that is a, a factually true. Okay, and you should always verify the data. I did. It's true. They're now that long. The banks are, they covered all their shorts. You want to be with, with on the side of the banksters. I'm, I'm just saying, right? I mean, you might hate them, and they're, they're the bad guys, and, but who cares? You just trying to generate returns. That's the bottom line. And let them work for you. You're their boss. They're net log now. Good. Good boys. So, I can go along maybe. Right. Maybe. So, this is an important development that I wouldn't underestimate because after that crash, everybody going to crash to zero. Yeah. But the banks are not long. They're, they're not, they're kind of on your side. And if you think they're not going to crash to because they're not going to let it crash to zero, my, my guys, because they're, they're connected.

So, what do I think is going to happen to silver? I don't know. Okay. But I do have a base case, and I'll change the base case. I, I'll let the data tell me what's going to happen. But for now, the max pain I think is, you know, we, we, we like remember what I said. If we visit this neckline again, which we did, it could be bad news. Well, look at what happened. It was a peekaboo down. Went back above the neckline. Okay, went back. So, to me, this was a trap. And I know I said if we and we break down, we're going to go down. It was a trap for people like me who don't know how to adjust. So, what happened? We broke. The moment we went back up above it, I said, "Look, I got to adjust." This could have been a bear trap, a false breakdown to trap everybody else who was thinking like me into thinking it's going to go down when it won't, and it'll go back up.

So, now I'm thinking, okay, clearly went back up. Could have been a bear trap. Avoided that trap. Maybe it's going to go back up and go all the way here. We're to the last point of resistance. And then what's going to happen up here? Could be another little trap to trap all the people say, "Oh, we're gonna go up, up, up and away," and go back down. Will it go back down here? So, you see it. That's what markets like to do. Suck you in, especially for people who, who are, who are married and religious about a narrative. This one will trap all the all the permabull narratives and maybe go back down. Eventually, it's going to go back up because of the, the fundamentals like I discussed, right? So, I, I am long-term eventually, but maybe we're going to do these head fakes. We're going to, So, what there, these, we're now in this range, I think, as I showed you, there is this range developing now.

And in there, I would like to try to trade it on, and then when we get close to the edges of those range, I'll cash out, right? I'll let the, I'll let them work for me. They're, I'm their bos, I'm the boss. They don't know that exists. And that's kind of my trading plan now is to see if this develops. We develop this high low in this square, in this rectangular range. And they're going to fake you out there just like the what, and I'll talk about the equities. They've been doing with equities, right? In that WOFF distribution. We've been stuck in a range since that I'll show you right, probably what they're going to do and, and kind of like consolidate here before it breaks back above and let the fundamentals finally dictate what's happening because you can't ignore the fundamentals forever.

So, that is kind of what I'm looking at right now that we, we may be going up. You could see with a call options, um, activity, and then kind of juke people here, go back down, go in some range, you know, basically I write it up or write it down as we, as we get close to the range tops and bottoms, I cash out and take profits basically until we let the fundamentals, that's kind of my current setting and belief. We'll see how it unfolds. If it unfolds differently, that's fine. I change, right? As long as we're again, as long as we're generating revenues, I'm all good.

Now, I want to talk about what's also going on with gold. I not many people look at this. I, I don't know if you've ever looked at it, but there is a gold VIX or volatility for the gold. And if you've, that's the blue line here, okay? And basically, I don't know if you ever looked at it, but if you look at it, whenever we have a spike up and it goes down, that's when gold kind of goes back up. Now, what we had was a spike up, and it's going back down. You know, it's not like we do this and go down, okay? We, we spike up and then we go down. We've had that spike. It's been generated. It's been that means we're probably going to go back down, which means we're probably going to go back up as volatility in gold subsides. So, that would mean we will go down. We, We could go down a little more. Like I said, I don't know. But we've hit, we've hit that pinpoint. The spike has been laid in. It's been laid in. It's been laid, it's been laid in. So, the odds are now we're going to go back up. That's just as simple as I can show you with the volatility of gold overlaid with the price of gold. So, again, there's, there's all these things telling me this. That's why my, but I just shared with you what my base case is for the meantime. It's to go up and go up to a range where it might suck in and the people who are bulls and make a bull trap and then go back down. You see how that's how they do it? Make them work for you. You're their boss. You're their b, you're the boss that they don't know exists.

Now, this is something I've been sh, on a, on a smaller time frame that I've been sharing on Discord is this is the five minute chart of GLD ETF. I've been telling people this is what I'm watching. This is the 200 SMA on the five minute chart, and I was saying, look, it's been great support. The moment we broke that and we crossed it, it's become resistance. Resistance every, So, the way I've been trading, it's very simple. Make money on the way up. The moment we get close here, cash out, goes down. Try to find the bottom with the Kit Kat rule, goes up, make money gets close up here, cash out, goes down. Try to find the bottom of the kit rule, go make money on the way up, goes close to the cash out. I know it sounds really, it is kind of, but goes down, look for patterns, kick roll, goes up, now here I cashed out, but then instead of going down, it crossed back over, that's why I made it cross back, crossed back over means now we're in an uptrend, we were in a downtrend, crossed back above it, now we're in an uptrend, so rode this up, right? It's probably gonna, this gonna curl up, this gonna go down, gets come here. Cash out support. I'm sorry. Buy, I'm sorry. Sorry. Buy at that point. It'll be the, it's the inverse of this, right? So, buy when it goes, when it goes up, cash out. When it goes, it goes, buy because it's probably a support until that gets broken.

So, now I believe we are, we have embarked on an uptrend which we were in because I do believe we've completed this downtrend. Why? Because we've broken over the 200 SMA and the five minute. So, in multiple time frames, multiple data points, it seems like we're now going back up, and I'm going to trade it that way until I'm proven wrong. Otherwise, at which point I'll then I'll switch.

The last thing I'll share about gold is you got to watch what the central banks in the world are doing. And look, the Bank of China increased its go. So, it increased it by a little over a ton in, in, um, January as the crash happened or starting to happen at the end, which is more than what it increased a little under a ton in December, and I think globally the net increase by central banks is like 55 tons around there for January. So, central banks are, are around the world are still accumulating gold. So, the fundamental story again, gold is more of a physical safe haven play than silver which has the, you know, supply demand imbalance from the industrial world play supporting it from a fundamental point, but for gold it's the fiscal safe haven assets where demand supply fundamental demand supply showing particularly driven by central banks, okay, which are the equivalent of the big manufacturers driving the fundamental story in silver for the industrial point of view, it's the central banks from the fiscal financial world point of view driving the fundamental story for gold. And there is no letup in them buying gold. And so, the fundamental factors are locked in, haven't changed. We just got to weather through the derivative and paper markets.

Which now brings me to the same story, but in stocks. Again, fundamentals. Stocks should be going down. There's unemployment. There's a recession coming, but stocks keep going up. Let's play the story out in stocks.

So, stocks, what's been going on? Well, as you know, I've been following this UTAD since last October, end of September is when we rode up. We're in this, this range basically, like I said, of highs and low. You get up here, you sell. You get up here, you sell. We're in this range here. This is kind of like the box within the box. I said we had the UTAD. We went down. We went down. We had a big upswing on, on Friday, but we're still in the range. And this is, this is what you call distribution. They're unloading. They're unloading. Who's they? The, the big boys, the sharks. They're, they've been unloading since. Why are they unloading? They know what's happening. They know what's coming down the pipeline. I'll show you.

Well, we've been talking about it. How do we know when loading? Look at during that time. This is also I showed on the Discord server. Every time there's red candles unloading, unloading, unloading, unload, the volume spikes up. The volume spikes up. The volume spikes up. The volume spikes up. The volume spikes up. What does that tell you? When they're selling, the volume spikes up. Why? Who's doing selling? The big boys. This the, the big institutions. They're dumping on high volume. Then the prices go back up again. In this range, right? Price. Who's buying the retail? Why? The volume's low. They're not as big. They're not big. They can't do huge block move transactions like the big banks. So, the volume's lower. Volume's low when the price go up. Volume starts going down. Volume starts going down. Volume starts going down. Volume starts going down. Even yesterday with this on Friday, huge green bar. Volume on, on the way down 'cause who's buying? It's not the big institutions. That's why volume's going down. Big institutions are unloading. That's why volume going up when selling. Okay, so that's what's happening. They've been unloading to the retail for many, many, many months now.

How do we know? Look, look at the latest data. In January, retail traders bought more than 1500, 350 million net. That's a net increase. So, there's a lot more buying, right? That means the buying overpowered the selling by that much, but there's a lot more buying. And it is a all-time record, largest monthly inflow in history. Think about the largest ever in history for net inflows. Retail traders all in, right? They're unloading to the bag holders. This going to continue until the supplies until that's it. They realize there's, there's no more retail buying any, and then once they realize there's no more, so for now there's still buy, there's, there's still more the money coming in, so there's still that's why this woff has been going on for a while, every time they unload, they see that there's still more, so they're going to keep unloading until there's more buyers, finally there's going to be a point where the re, when retail is all in, there's no more retail more to go in, and that's when it'll all unwind in the last point of supply when there's no more buyers and the supply is finished.

Now, what happened? And so, you know, the point here is stocks should go down. Why is it going up? Because this is why it's going up. The paper market is not representative of the economy. The in, in stocks and equities, the economy is the fundamental market, which is not good. But the paper derivative market on top of is the stocks, which is great. Well, it's been, you know, they've been changing hands and who owns the before the dump happens. Okay. So, but we are going to go down. Look, on Friday, we ended with a P bar right at this SMA on the five. Whenever you have a P bar that ends right on the SMA, I take, So, we're going down here, I think. Right. We're going down here. We have a 10-day window, but we're going down there easily.

So, stocks are doing great, right? Woohoo. 50,000 Dow Jones. Uh, you know, the best time in the world. But really, because look, if you go in and buy, you know, they, they released a new burger in McDonald's, it's like 167 for a meal for that burger. I forgot what it's called. It's got a double patty like double cheeseburger. It's like a Big Mac and a quarter pounder double mixed in. You know, when you're paying $167 for McDonald's meal, it things are not going well in the economy. Things are not, You can say all you want, but when McDonald's costs 16 bucks, you can't hide reality. Eventually, fundamentals will win. Fundamentals. Let's do more fundamentals in the economy.

Look, every I've showed this many times, but let's look at it again. Every time the yield curve uninverts, uninverts, uninverts, uninverts, uninverts, uninverts, uninverts. Even here, tiny uninversion, uninverts here. Now, we've had recessions. We've had recessions. Going back, I mean, 50 years or whatever, many decades, we just uninverted. And the uninversion is now picking up steam. The uninversion. We, we un, we crossed it uninverted, and it's now picking up steam. That gray bar is, and we've tried to stay off the, the gray bar by funny bookkeeping and all the funny, but fundamentals will play in. $17 McDonald's meals are not good when you, when wages haven't increase, and wages are not only not increased, the job market is not doing good. Guys, this gray bar is coming, man. I'm just. It's coming.

The uninversion is even picking up steam. You want to see it pick up steam? Here's a zoom in on the uninversion. Look at that. Uninverted. Crossed the zero. Earlier we had the uninversion, went back down. But now we uninverted, and now we're not looking back. This is we've inverted, uninverted, and now we are not looking back. We, It's done. The uninversion is no head fakes anymore. The head fake is over. Going up here when you zoom in, recession gray bar for shisel. Come on, guys. And there's a lot of other fundamental things going on. Not.

Good. Particularly with the $3 trillion shadow banking. What is that? Three shadow is private debt. Private debt. This is not good. Let's take a look a little bit deeper.

Private debt, private debt and credit. And you know what's going on? This is just last last week. Big company Black Rockck. You know what they said up till November. They were saying that they marked to market as fully valued. This is why and and then what did they do? Suddenly 19% decline last week.

Now I used to one of the places I used to work what in was in a fund of funds fund of hedge funds uh shop that this is what I used to work at Mackenzie. Mackenzie had its own investment office. I was a head of application investment applications at the Mackenzie investment office in New York City. And so I I got to see how the top investment I top consulting company Mckenzian company managed their investments okay for the partnership and the retirement trust for the entities and they were running a fund of fund shop of which I was in a senior role uh in there.

Okay. So when you have these types of opaque investments with with long lock up periods and you have to do some kind of marktomarket gueststimation of what the valuation is because of the opaque and long lockup period of the underlying asset which in this case is debt or credit vehicles. This happens. So everything's fine. Everything's fine. Everything's fine. Then randomly oh it's done down by 20% 40% overnight because why all of a sudden now we have visibility and transparency into the opaque underlying asset and it's not doing good.

This is what I mean when it happens. It won't happen like a stock market where it goes down liquidity and you can see it coming like a slow motion train wreck. In opaque markets like these fund the funds private debt credit these types of situ it's sudden because of the opakeness of it and the way they can hide things from their mark tomarket shenanigans until the very last second and then it's too late because it's like overnight oh by the way we're we're down 80%. That that's the kind of way it happens in this and it's trillions of dollars. And so you could be lulled into thinking everything's okay, everything's okay. Then one morning you wake up, you're it's gone. That's the way it works from the inside. I've seen it and I'm sharing it with you. Maybe you haven't worked in some of these outfits like me. Well, now you know. So this type of stuff is par for the but it's very bad when you consider the size of the market capitalization of those asset classes and the way they unwind.

Now I'm sorry this is a you got I know this is small text but these are the largest private debt companies out there. You know you got Blue Owl, you got the big ones Blackstone, you got you know Hercules, Aries. Look at the way they're performing. This is this is why you know there's smoke. Even if you don't know their mark tomarket, their investors into the stock of their equity of the company that's doing all the shenanigans is dropping like a rock. 19% 10% 20% year to date. Look at their look at look at their one month. Everything's red. One month, one week collapsing. This this is these are the signs. The private debt, three trillion plus problems and the stock market is a sniff test because the investors in there kind of kind of can sense something is wrong or a miss and it's starting to spook him out when like Black Rockck all suddenly comes out and be like 20% down. Oh my god. You see what I mean? This is coming. These are fundamental things coming.

The other sec, you know, where are they putting the money? Well, software software. So, this Zero Hedge did this article saying that software as a service is being software in general. Largest exposure for the BDC's 20% of their portfolio that went, you know, NASDAQ had that tank last year. Huge exposure. Private credit. Watch out, guys. I'm just telling you, watch out. This is not something that you're just going to, you know, ignore.

The other thing going on fundamental in the economy outside of the fiscal side is the economy itself. Job growth. ADB came out and said last week, worst job growth in 25 years outside of a recession. Well, because technically they don't want to admit we're in a recession. That's why you get a headline like this. But it's not 398,000 compared to 771 between 24 and 25 as a year. In January, the last static only 22,000 jobs. Terrible start. The job market from both the public sector reporting with if you want to believe it the department of labor statistics data which has always been redacted or updated so to be a lot worse than what they initially although the last one was actually and it's not good from the government public data point of view. Well, here's private data ADP not good either challenger job report not good. Any way you look at it public private the job market is not doing well. And even if the Feds say, "Well, it kind of stab is it really?" I'm telling you, it's not. Remember McDonald's 17 bucks jobs? No. Fundamentally, the e the economy is not doing it. Look at the yield curve on inversion. It's not good by any stretch of the imagination. And this why it's 20,000 far short of expectation. That that kind of causes the stock market to kind of go down, right? And they the big guys sold off. Then the little guys brought it back up again. It was 22,000 and it was less than the what was downwardly revised 37 in December. They were expecting 45,000. This is almost half less than half. Less than half in January. That is really really not good. And this I'm I'm telling you this is going to continue. This is going to continue.

Meanwhile, we also have the other problem with the yen carry trade unwind. What's going on with the debt markets, particularly with Japan and JGBs? I've been talking about this. Look, they intervened and this caused this huge collapse in the USD JPY FX pair. Remember 160 is that's when things start breaking. So, we're very this is 159. 160 they interveneed collap but look what happened past couple of days it just shut up. Interventions usually don't last for too long and it's like a drug you take a hit feels good come down need to take another but that next hit you need to take it's not going to last as long because your body develops resistance to it then you need to start taking bigger and bigger hits. This is exactly what's going on here. They took a hit ah wore off. You keep doing this, take a hit, wore off. At some point, you might OD or at some point the hits don't do anything for you anymore. And look, it's not doing much. Or just a few days ago, it's already we're already creeping back up. If this again goes back up the signal, what are you going to do? Take another hit. This is happening.

So, fundamentally, you can see it's very like, you know, just it's the reverse of the commodities. Commodities fundamentally things are very strong and bullish even if the paper markets are being bogus. But again, you got to be careful when you you don't want to get your shirt taken off, right? Play the paper markets way while the fundament and let the fundamentals have its time to play out because it usually takes longer than you think. Look for the bridge between the two. Equities is the opposite. It's really bad fundamentals. Really bad fundamentals. I showed you just some. There's a lot more, but it's very bad fundamentals. But the stocks keep going up. Yeah, because it's paper. It's a reverse of what's happening. Come on. Let it work its way out. It usually takes longer than you think. In the meantime, make money out of it like I have. Don't get stuck to our ne don't get angry that stocks are going up when everything's looking bad. No, you know, yeah, it's going to eventually fundamentals will win, but you can make money while you're waiting and it will eventually win in the end. And we will have the recession in the end. And we will have eventually the stock market snap back to reality and go down, which is usually what happens during recessions. And this looks like it's going to be a pretty bad recession that's coming up.

So, I hope that I hope you take a little of what I say uh into your mind as you prepare for these weekend episodes are great because it gives you a chance to take a step back and kind of reflect on what happened during the week. So, I hope you you do that and kind of approach it with what I said between the paper and underlying fundamental what's really going on. Don't get too hung up if it's not doing what it should be doing. Just actually make money as it make them be your workers. You're their boss, right? Knowing that the fundamentals will eventually win in the end. So, you prepare for that, but in the meantime, you play the games. You play the games, be their boss, make the returns. And if you do that, you'll be like me. You'll be prepared and you'll be happy while you're basically owning them. So, having said that, I'll see you on the next episode. Hope everybody has a great trading week. I don't know if I'm going to do all I I did a few episodes, you know, midweek last last week. I don't know if stuff happens, I'll do it again. But if you think they're helpful, let me know. Making these videos does take some time away from me doing what I should be doing, which is investing. But I try to help people here and try to spread the word out. Give it a like, subscribe, and let people know. Peace out.