US-China economies: Jason Furman v Justin Yifu Lin, leading US & China economic advisers in dialogue

[music] >> Hello everyone. Welcome back to the Workers Podcast. My name's Han Song Lee and I believe that I'm one of many, including our audience there, who wake up and wonder what it means to live in this moment of polycrisis. There is the climate challenge, rising sea levels. There is geopolitical tension which have implications on energy and everything we use. There is also this broad question of what is going to become of the world political, economic, and legal orders.

But I also believe that I am one of you who would wake up in the morning and ask yourself, what if Professor Justin Yifu Lin and Professor Jason Furman sit down together? And aren't we told every day that China-US relations is one of the, and used to be arguably, but now I think it still seems arguable, the most important relationship in the 21st century? How about a foremost Chinese economist and a foremost American economist sitting down, comparing notes? What would they say to each other? If you have been wondering about that, I'm glad to let you know that this is happening before your eyes. So, I am really curious, but I'm very thrilled intellectually, but also for a podcast, that we get to sit down together with Professor Lin, Professor Furman. So, thank you so much for joining us today.

It's my pleasure and my honor to meet with Professor Furman. And I feel exactly the same way about Professor. Thank you so much.

So, let me start with this question about the moment that we're living in, right? So, our shared colleague, Danny Rodrik, whom both of you know, used to joke in the classroom that whereas maybe a decade ago, industrial policy was a, a defamation, it was some bad word that you would throw at people, and it's almost like an attack. Now, it's gaining popularity and it's becoming mainstreamed in, in Western society. And I think there are deeper structural reasons for that observation because, Professor Furman, I recently heard you say that your favorite industrial policy is investment in education, human capital. But sometimes we are also reminded that, well, if you see the role of, you know, supply chain security and the PPE during the pandemic, if you see how certain industrial policies for renewable energy have enabled China to have a buffer, right, in the fallout of the Strait of Hormuz, and now the overall energy profile is dependence on external imports, 20% or so. That is different from Japan and Korea and, and Taiwan. And we hear a little bit about the biopharma. We hear about robotics. We hear about the drones and everything else. So, my first question is, are we living in a time of contingency? Now, there's just a lot of transitions going on. We're going back to the neoclassical framework that I was trained in, and Professor Lin, I went to UChicago, I got my neoclassical economics. Are we going back to that, or are we going into a global new normal where everyone starts to think neo-structurally? So, let me start with Professor Furman and then I'll go to Professor Lin.

Yeah. So, I think my views on industrial policy probably haven't evolved very much. When people don't change their minds, sometimes you should be suspicious of what they think, but maybe sometimes they were right from the beginning, and you, you can both be the judge. I love broad-based policies. You cited human capital. I would include immigration, having great universities, investing in scientific research and the like. All that really disproportionately can help the manufacturing sector, which is very R&D intensive. So, all of that I love. When it comes to thinking, you know, which industry is good and which industry is bad, we, for example, have a chips program in the United States where we gave $10 billion to Intel to build microchips in the United States. I don't think that was a good economic idea because it's not going to help the middle class, it's not going to create a lot of jobs. It crowds out other types of jobs by driving up the cost of construction, driving up interest rates. It still might be worthwhile, but for some other reason. In the case of microchips, it would be resilience. You know, you brought up drones. If your goal was to help American workers, I would not have government-sponsored drone factories. If your goal was national security, then I would. But that, that would be a cost-benefit analysis. The cost is all the jobs making drones when those people could be making something that's higher wage, higher productivity, maybe for export. The benefit of national security, and you weigh it against each other. So, for me, industrial policy can be justified as a cost that's worth paying to achieve some other goal like national security. It's much less likely to be a benefit in and of itself for the economy.

It's a very nuanced take on this and with synergies with Professor Lin's framework. So, let me turn to you, Professor Lin, because you are the intellectual architect of new structural economics. What has been associated with the peculiar example of China is now gaining normative popularity around the world. Do you think this new structural economics framework, which obviously is rooted in your observations of the Chinese example, is now diffusing, has the potential to be applied elsewhere, or how do you assess the moment we're living in right now?

Well, you know, I think new structural economics try to understand the success of every country, including those countries in the UK, in the US, and the catching-up countries like Japan, like Korea, and certainly not China. Because in the process of catching up, industrial policy is essential. Historically, I did not see any country will be able to catch up without using industrial policies. And then, not only so, all the advanced countries, they continue to do industrial policies, although they may not use the name. Certainly, many industrial policies failed. It's a fact. But for us as economists, our obligation is to understand what are the key determinants for the success of industrial policy. So, we'll be able to advise the government to improve the probability of the success of industrial policies.

Great. I have one question now dressed up as three. And these come as three challenges to industrial policies, right? The first, we hear is, how do you get the information to know what to invest, when to invest, how to invest in the right things? But then, how do you not only do that, but also curate an ecosystem in which you don't have to micromanage everything for the next 30 years, but then you can then spring up, rely on the market dynamics to do more bottom-up innovations, right? How do you curate that ecosystem and not only just fund particular projects, but also how do you use that initial surplus you accrue, right, from industrial policies to do the right kind of investment for the next stage, right? How can this industrial policy be more dynamic and not static, or even be a policy that gets us stuck in a certain stage, not only the middle-income trap, but also the middle innovation trap, as many times are saying nowadays?

You know, my vision of industrial policy is to facilitate and not to, you know, dominate. Because in the process of, you know, continuous industrial upgrading, you have market failures, although entrepreneurship is essential. And if the government will not facilitate, then even you have entrepreneurs, they will not be able to, you know, carry out their vision or their plan. And countries at the different stage of development, what is needed by the government will be different. Like Jason, Jason mentioned his vision of industrial policy is education. It's essential for the US. Because the US, their technology is on the global technology frontiers. And if you want to further move up your industry or technology, you will have to do inventions. It's not innovation alone. It's actually invention. For inventions, we know there are several components. One is breakthrough in the, in the physical sciences. And the second one, certainly, is the development of new technology, new products based on the breakthrough in the, you know, understanding of the natures. And then for that, certainly, education will be very essential. But for countries at the catching-up stages, they have the comparative advantages. And for the latecomers, advantages, there's a lot of information what kind of industry, what kind of technology would be our next step to develop. Those kind of information, you know, entrepreneurs know most of that. The state, they can also observe. But if you want to move up the industrial ladder, you also need to improve the infrastructure. And also to improve institutions, financial institutions, you know, institutions related to the education of skilled workers and so on. For those kind of things, actually, it's not so hard to, you know, understand. And the government certainly would have to work with the private sectors to understand what are the barriers for them to move up the industrial ladder. And when the country moves up to the technological frontier, like the US now, you know, in terms of education, you also need to know what type of education would be essential for the country to further expand the technological frontiers. And, and industrial policies are necessary. For example, in the basic research is unlimited, but your fund, the money that you can allocate to support basic research is limited. So, under that kind of situation, even for the advanced countries, they also need to pick to use the limited resources for basic research strategically to understand which area is essential for further technology improvement in invention, and that would, you know, build the foundation for the country to move on. And again, even we talk about education, talk about support for basic research, you also need to pick to allocate your limited resources to the, you know, possibility to have the largest impact for the continuous, you know, dynamic economic growth for the country.

Right. So, your vision for industrial policy is it's a, it's a prudential one, it's a steady one, it's a dynamic one. It's not just, you know, a, a rigid kind of guidance from, from top down. And so, but is it right that, Professor Furman, we are under the impression that now we have reached a bipartisan consensus on one consensus that China is the adversarial opposition out there. Is the other, but there's the other consensus that both Democrats and Republicans are inclined to do reshoring policies, right? Build up the fences and do more industrial policies in order to compete, right? You mentioned that the exception to your general hesitance on the point of industrial policy is that when it comes to national security, you, you do what, you know, understand what the logic is. But how do you maintain this delicate balance of avoiding government failures, avoiding all the bad choices that you made based on incomplete information, based on our really our ignorance in, you know, what to do? And on the other hand, there seems to be an empirical basis for thinking that we're now back to more big government approach to the US economy. Is that the right impression, or what do you think about that?

Yeah. So, there's two separate things in what you just said. One is what the political system is doing right now, where you made an observation. And then the second is what the political system ought to be doing. Um, in terms of what it is doing, the rhetoric has shifted much more towards industrial policy. In some ways, that was quite common with both Biden and Trump, who have taken a more confrontational stance to China, believed more in American manufacturing, and believed more in, you know, even very traditional industries like steel and autos, not just super cutting-edge new industries. The way they went about it is has been somewhat different. Biden was more enthusiastic about subsidies, and Trump is more enthusiastic about tariffs. Now, to be clear, Biden had a certain amount of tariffs, including maintaining the ones on China that Trump had had, and Trump had had a certain amount of subsidies, but definitely the enthusiasm, um, I should say, in general, I'm more sympathetic to, if you're going to go down this route, do subsidies than tariffs. Do something for your own country rather than trying to sort of economically attack, um, another country. Now, while the rhetoric has shifted, if you look at the locus of the US economy, though, this has not moved it very much. Um, manufacturing employment share has continued to fall. Yes, we have more microchip factories being built than would otherwise be built, but it's not like this is a large-scale transformation of the US economy. In fact, the biggest large-scale transformation going on in the US economy is because of AI on the demand side, building data centers. On the supply side, the productivity that hopefully maybe we're already getting and we're going to get more of. And that was a function of the industrial policies defined by education and immigration. It definitely was not that the government picked AI, put resources into AI, and made that happen. So, the economy sort of has a mind of its own. And [clears throat] our political leaders, I think, have been overtaken a little bit by nostalgia for the things of the past and in the future. Well, and that was great. And that then relates to a sort of another worry I have, and it's a traditional worry economists have had about industrial policy, which is, let's say there is someone who is super thoughtful, like you, and you figure out exactly what industries to help, exactly what's where they should be, which state, which industry, et cetera. You then go to the United States Congress. In the United States Congress, the most powerful senator is going to get whatever they want in their state. The lobbyists for one industry are going to prevail over the lobbyists for another. And that's the nature, all policymaking is political, but when it's about very specific industries or very specific places, the problem of a concentrated interest overcoming and overpowering the broad diffuse effects that it has on many, many more people, um, is always a dynamic to worry about. So, even if we solve this problem economically, I worry the politicians would pick the wrong things. And in some sense, for example, I don't think there's any argument for what we're doing, um, for steel in the United States. And I think that's the, I'm sorry, the only argument for it, I think, is political. I don't think there's any good economic argument. So, I, I worry about the economics in theory. I worry even more about the politics in the United States in practice.

Well, we see what whenever President Trump decides to roll out a new industrial policy, convenes all of his best friends, and they are the ones who are carving out the cake. Um, but can I pose that question to, uh, Professor Lin? So, how do you make sure the, uh, once you have the right projects, right? How do you make sure it diffuses and doesn't stay in the hands of a few, uh, you know, elites?

So, let's begin with industrial policy is essential. And our obligation is to improve the probability of success and, uh, to reduce the probability of failures. And how to improve the probability of success? Industrial policy to facilitate industries of latent competitive advantages to become actual competitive advantages. And then, so, this industry can be competitive in the markets. And how to do that? And how to access, you know, first, certainly, you need to provide some kind of incentive first, first movers. And, uh, since this, this industry has latent competitive advantages, the incentive to the first mover will be very small. Tax holidays for corporate income tax for a few years. That's sufficiently, you know, incentive. And, uh, secondly, the country, the state need to help remove the bottlenecks, the hurdles in hard infrastructure and soft infrastructure. And, uh, for those kind of things, if the government has sufficient capacity and resources, you should improve the infrastructure for the total nation, institutions for the total nation. But in fact, the state capacity is limited. So, under that kind of situation, the state should target the industries with latent competitive advantages and to understand what are the infrastructure needed for that industry to function. And what are the soft infrastructure for this industry to emerge. And for those kind of intervention, it's not a subsidy. It's a facilitation. And it should be applied to the whole nation. But because the resources are limited, and the government should use those resources strategically. And, uh, for high-income countries also, as I mentioned, you know, for the US and so on, if they want to continue to have leading the technological trend for the world, you need to invent new technology, new products all the time. And you need to do R&D, but as I said, the area that you can do basic research is unlimited. Your resources are limited. So, under that kind of situation, you also need to use the fund for supporting basic research strategically. Again, it's industrial policy.

Well, that, that's a lot of requirement that basically expects us to be maximally nimble and prudent under constraints. Now, that's really hard to do. Very interesting. But I have a challenge for you both, right? So, from a global south, whereas Otaviano Canuto, earlier this morning when he was joining us, he used the term new south. From the non-US, non-Chinese perspective, what if smaller economies come to you, and I'm sure they did many times in the past, and ask you, "So, if I do a big bang, neo-classical, neoliberal opening up to the market global economy, I'm going to be swamped, right? I don't have any advantage. I'm just going to be gone. If I do industrial policy, I don't have the technical know-hows, I don't have the many latent advantages, I don't have a lot of raw materials to even begin with on day one, and I worry that China already has these dense industrial complexes where everything you need in the supply chain is found within three miles, and they're just never going to let me do my industrial policy." So, what if they say, "I cannot do it the, you know, the traditional way, the liberal market way, I cannot do it the industrial policy way." How do you advise them? Is there a way to mix and match and do it the third way, or how do you think about that?

Yeah, I mean, first of all, the beauty of comparative advantage is everyone has it in something. Even if you're terrible at making everything, you just need to be comparatively less terrible at making it, and it's worth you doing something. And you know, that's sort of the first thing. The second thing is, you know, one big problem with industrial policy is originally it meant industry, it meant manufacturing. But the process of automation is hitting everyone around the world. China's losing manufacturing jobs, Germany's losing manufacturing jobs, the United States is losing manufacturing jobs. And if you're a poor country, um, you have the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization where you hit your peak manufacturing share, you know, earlier on. Um, this has led some of the economists I respect most, um, Raghuram Rajan, um, who, well, he writes about everything in the world, but, uh, but in this particular context was writing about India saying they needed to target services. Um, Dani Rodrik has talked about industrial policy for the service sector. But that's where I get even more confused because at least in the manufacturing sector, you know, I understand you need capital, maybe you need energy, uh, etc. What exactly do you need in the service sector? What's the bottleneck? Which services is the government going to support? So, [clears throat] as industrial policy has evolved to be services policy, again, you know, other than the education, the things that are a little bit less targeted, um, it almost makes me less sure about how countries around the world, um, should think about it. You know, maybe industrial policy was a great idea 100 years ago, maybe 50 years ago, maybe even 25 years ago, but as manufacturing gets more and more automated, it may become less and less of a good strategy.

Let's go back to that a bit later. But Professor Lin?

Well, that, I think I'd like to disagree a little bit. I think a premature deindustrialization is a symptom of policy failures. It's not a trend. And I can, you know, use empirical evidence to support my argument because in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and so on, certainly some part of the world, especially North America and to some extent also in Africa, yes, they encountered premature deindustrialization. But at the same time, not only China, it goes to Vietnam, Cambodia, and even Bangladesh. You are in the same period of time, they have a rapid industrialization. So, it's not a trend that is universal to all countries. And I think it's a policy failure was because in North America and also in, you know, Africa, they, you know, adopted the strategy and any other depression. And as a result, the industry built up during the import substitution stages, because those kind of industry went against their comparative advantages. And if you remove all the protection and a subsidy to them, certainly many of them failed and, uh, bankrupt. But at the same time, because during that period of time, industrial policy is a taboo, they are otherwise not to use industrial policy to support the emergence of new industry that they have comparative advantages. Old industry failed, new industry will not emerge. Certainly, they encountered premature deindustrialization. But luckily, in East Asia, all the countries continued to practice industrial policy to support the emergence of new industry which are consistent with their comparative advantages. And as so, they are continuing gaining a pace of their, you know, development of manufacturing. 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and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, 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Right. So, your vision for industrial policy is it's a, it's a prudential one, it's a steady one, it's a dynamic one. It's not just, you know, a, a rigid kind of guidance from, from top down. And so, but is it right that, Professor Furman, we are under the impression that now we have reached a bipartisan consensus on one consensus that China is the adversarial opposition out there. Is the other, but there's the other consensus that both Democrats and Republicans are inclined to do reshoring policies, right? Build up the fences and do more industrial policies in order to compete, right? You mentioned that the exception to your general hesitance on the point of industrial policy is that when it comes to national security, you, you do what, you know, understand what the logic is. But how do you maintain this delicate balance of avoiding government failures, avoiding all the bad choices that you made based on incomplete information, based on our really our ignorance in, you know, what to do? And on the other hand, there seems to be an empirical basis for thinking that we're now back to more big government approach to the US economy. Is that the right impression, or what do you think about that?

Yeah. So, there's two separate things in what you just said. One is what the political system is doing right now, where you made an observation. And then the second is what the political system ought to be doing. Um, in terms of what it is doing, the rhetoric has shifted much more towards industrial policy. In some ways, that was quite common with both Biden and Trump, who have taken a more confrontational stance to China, believed more in American manufacturing, and believed more in, you know, even very traditional industries like steel and autos, not just super cutting-edge new industries. The way they went about it is has been somewhat different. Biden was more enthusiastic about subsidies, and Trump is more enthusiastic about tariffs. Now, to be clear, Biden had a certain amount of tariffs, including maintaining the ones on China that Trump had had, and Trump had had a certain amount of subsidies, but definitely the enthusiasm, um, I should say, in general, I'm more sympathetic to, if you're going to go down this route, do subsidies than tariffs. Do something for your own country rather than trying to sort of economically attack, um, another country. Now, while the rhetoric has shifted, if you look at the locus of the US economy, though, this has not moved it very much. Um, manufacturing employment share has continued to fall. Yes, we have more microchip factories being built than would otherwise be built, but it's not like this is a large-scale transformation of the US economy. In fact, the biggest large-scale transformation going on in the US economy is because of AI on the demand side, building data centers. On the supply side, the productivity that hopefully maybe we're already getting and we're going to get more of. And that was a function of the industrial policies defined by education and immigration. It definitely was not that the government picked AI, put resources into AI, and made that happen. So, the economy sort of has a mind of its own. And [clears throat] our political leaders, I think, have been overtaken a little bit by nostalgia for the things of the past and in the future. Well, and that then relates to a sort of another worry I have, and it's a traditional worry economists have had about industrial policy, which is, let's say there is someone who is super thoughtful, like you, and you figure out exactly what industries to help, exactly what's where they should be, which state, which industry, et cetera. You then go to the United States Congress. In the United States Congress, the most powerful senator is going to get whatever they want in their state. The lobbyists for one industry are going to prevail over the lobbyists for another. And that's the nature, all policymaking is political, but when it's about very specific industries or very specific places, the problem of a concentrated interest overcoming and overpowering the broad diffuse effects that it has on many, many more people, um, is always a dynamic to worry about. So, even if we solve this problem economically, I worry the politicians would pick the wrong things. And in some sense, for example, I don't think there's any argument for what we're doing, um, for steel in the United States. And I think that's the, I'm sorry, the only argument for it, I think, is political. I don't think there's any good economic argument. So, I, I worry about the economics in theory. I worry even more about the politics in the United States in practice.

Well, we see what whenever President Trump decides to roll out a new industrial policy, convenes all of his best friends, and they are the ones who are carving out the cake. Um, but can I pose that question to, uh, Professor Lin? So, how do you make sure the, uh, once you have the right projects, right? How do you make sure it diffuses and doesn't stay in the hands of a few, uh, you know, elites?

So, let's begin with industrial policy is essential. And our obligation is to improve the probability of success and, uh, to reduce the probability of failures. And how to improve the probability of success? Industrial policy to facilitate industries of latent competitive advantages to become actual competitive advantages. And then, so, this industry can be competitive in the markets. And how to do that? And how to access, you know, first, certainly, you need to provide some kind of incentive first, first movers. And, uh, since this, this industry has latent competitive advantages, the incentive to the first mover will be very small. Tax holidays for corporate income tax for a few years. That's sufficiently, you know, incentive. And, uh, secondly, the country, the state need to help remove the bottlenecks, the hurdles in hard infrastructure and soft infrastructure. And, uh, for those kind of things, if the government has sufficient capacity and resources, you should improve the infrastructure for the total nation, institutions for the total nation. But in fact, the state capacity is limited. So, under that kind of situation, the state should target the industries with latent competitive advantages and to understand what are the infrastructure needed for that industry to function. And what are the soft infrastructure for this industry to emerge. And for those kind of intervention, it's not a subsidy. It's a facilitation. And it should be applied to the whole nation. But because the resources are limited, and the government should use those resources strategically. And, uh, for high-income countries also, as I mentioned, you know, for the US and so on, if they want to continue to have leading the technological trend for the world, you need to invent new technology, new products all the time. And you need to do R&D, but as I said, the area that you can do basic research is unlimited. Your resources are limited. So, under that kind of situation, you also need to use the fund for supporting basic research strategically. Again, it's industrial policy.

Well, that, that's a lot of requirement that basically expects us to be maximally nimble and prudent under constraints. Now, that's really hard to do. Very interesting. But I have a challenge for you both, right? So, from a global south, whereas Otaviano Canuto, earlier this morning when he was joining us, he used the term new south. From the non-US, non-Chinese perspective, what if smaller economies come to you, and I'm sure they did many times in the past, and ask you, "So, if I do a big bang, neo-classical, neoliberal opening up to the market global economy, I'm going to be swamped, right? I don't have any advantage. I'm just going to be gone. If I do industrial policy, I don't have the technical know-hows, I don't have the many latent advantages, I don't have a lot of raw materials to even begin with on day one, and I worry that China already has these dense industrial complexes where everything you need in the supply chain is found within three miles, and they're just never going to let me do my industrial policy." So, what if they say, "I cannot do it the, you know, the traditional way, the liberal market way, I cannot do it the industrial policy way." How do you advise them? Is there a way to mix and match and do it the third way, or how do you think about that?

Yeah, I mean, first of all, the beauty of comparative advantage is everyone has it in something. Even if you're terrible at making everything, you just need to be comparatively less terrible at making it, and it's worth you doing something. And you know, that's sort of the first thing. The second thing is, you know, one big problem with industrial policy is originally it meant industry, it meant manufacturing. But the process of automation is hitting everyone around the world. China's losing manufacturing jobs, Germany's losing manufacturing jobs, the United States is losing manufacturing jobs. And if you're a poor country, um, you have the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization where you hit your peak manufacturing share, you know, earlier on. Um, this has led some of the economists I respect most, um, Raghuram Rajan, um, who, well, he writes about everything in the world, but, uh, but in this particular context was writing about India saying they needed to target services. Um, Dani Rodrik has talked about industrial policy for the service sector. But that's where I get even more confused because at least in the manufacturing sector, you know, I understand you need capital, maybe you need energy, uh, etc. What exactly do you need in the service sector? What's the bottleneck? Which services is the government going to support? So, [clears throat] as industrial policy has evolved to be services policy, again, you know, other than the education, the things that are a little bit less targeted, um, it almost makes me less sure about how countries around the world, um, should think about it. You know, maybe industrial policy was a great idea 100 years ago, maybe 50 years ago, maybe even 25 years ago, but as manufacturing gets more and more automated, it may become less and less of a good strategy.

Let's go back to that a bit later. But Professor Lin?

Well, that, I think I'd like to disagree a little bit. I think a premature deindustrialization is a symptom of policy failures. It's not a trend. And I can, you know, use empirical evidence to support my argument because in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and so on, certainly some part of the world, especially North America and to some extent also in Africa, yes, they encountered premature deindustrialization. But at the same time, not only China, it goes to Vietnam, Cambodia, and even Bangladesh. You are in the same period of time, they have a rapid industrialization. So, it's not a trend that is universal to all countries. And I think it's a policy failure was because in North America and also in, you know, Africa, they, you know, adopted the strategy and any other depression. And as a result, the industry built up during the import substitution stages, because those kind of industry went against their comparative advantages. And if you remove all the protection and a subsidy to them, certainly many of them failed and, uh, bankrupt. But at the same time, because during that period of time, industrial policy is a taboo, they are otherwise not to use industrial policy to support the emergence of new industry that they have comparative advantages. Old industry failed, new industry will not emerge. Certainly, they encountered premature deindustrialization. But luckily, in East Asia, all the countries continued to practice industrial policy to support the emergence of new industry which are consistent with their comparative advantages. And as so, they are continuing gaining a pace of their, you know, development of manufacturing. 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and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, 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and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and

more liquid capital markets, vastly larger amounts of debt, the dollar in reserves, in invoicing, in settlement, in almost every aspect of the system. Um in some of those it's slipping a little bit, but more towards a plurality rather than bandwagoning around something else. Um moreover, there's one technology that the dollar is even more dominant in than it is in any of the traditional ones, and that's stablecoins, where 99% of them uh more than 99% are US dollar stablecoins. So, it's possible that at the margin things are moving even more in the direction of the dollar um not less. So, I'm somewhat um as a predictive matter uh expect the dollar to stay. Um that's not to say there aren't all sorts of things shifting around, but to stay.

The second thing is in terms of how important it is, I don't think it's that that important. I on net, it's a the pros outweigh [clears throat] the cons for the US economy. It allows us cheaper sources of financing, but it does affect our exchange rate. It does change the structure of our economy. Um it does possibly lead us to take some more chances by doing things that wouldn't be sustainable for a country that had to face more market disciplines. There are days when a little bit more market discipline I think would be welcome uh for the US economy. So, um this is not a not one of the items I'm losing a whole lot of sleep over.

Professor Lin, when Roberto mentioned that, he said that the Chinese counterpart at the time, around 2009, were a bit hesitant because, you know, a lot of Chinese foreign reserves are in the US dollars. But over time, it seems as if China has warmed up to the idea of dedollarization. What do you think about the future of the RMB? I think it's certainly as China become a major trading country and the Chinese yuan will increasing its importance in the international trading system. But I don't think that China has an ambition to use yuan to replace the US dollars. Because I think that that we are moving to a global system that several currency play their important role for trade, for pricing, for, you know, security and so on. And I think those currencies may be desirable. Because if we only have one single, you know, dominant currencies, first the country may use their currency as a weapon, weaponized. Secondly for the country may not be good also. Because there will be less discipline on their monetary policy as well as fiscal policies. And now to have this kind of multiple system I think will be good because that will reduce the possibility to weaponize the currency. And also will put us discipline on their government for their monetary policy and also fiscal policy. So, that's good to do for both sides.

Great. Um because the name of the podcast is Worldviews, let me end on a note of global visions. Uh instead of asking about globalism, globalization versus anti-globalism, anti-globalization, let me ask you which kind of globalization, what global vision would be good um to foster good dynamic uh development in both China and the US and around the world because uh for China, it embraces globalization still, you know, uh discursively and I think in in reality as well. And for the US, although there's some questioning of that, after all, this is the global system that the US helped build, so it's yours. You have to do something about it anyway. So, let me ask you, Professor Furman first, what kind of global economic order do you envision normatively now? Like if you have to imagine one that you believe would be best for all of us.

Yeah, I'm a free trader when it comes to most things, again, with very limited national security exceptions. And to me, that means a larger amount of exports and a larger amount of imports, and both of those are good. Um one of them you're comparative advantage and the jobs it supports, one your consumption, which in some ways benefits all jobs by making wages um go further. Um that's not you know, the most popular >> [clears throat] >> vision to articulate at the current moment. Um and yet it is still the case that even with the big increase in tariffs in the United States it's going to reduce our trade share, reduce both our exports and imports. Um I don't think it's going to change our trade balance very much. But um it's not going to dramatically change it. And if anything, to some degree it may rearrange it. Maybe we'll get less from China, more from Vietnam. And we've seen that type of um rearrangement. I mean, the second thing is um you know, we need a world system where um countries work together. I don't think the United States or China is big and powerful enough to push everyone else around. Um trying to push everyone else around doesn't usually go over that well either. And so, um making alliances economically is one um that's very positive sum and I think is going to remain important part of the fabric. And if you can't do it at the full global multilateral level of the WTO um do it um plurilaterally. And then the last thing is as much as I know you want to talk about um worldviews, and that's the name of your podcast, so much of that matters is what you do in your own country. And if you can do things right with education, with innovation, with investing in your people um that's [clears throat] going to both be more important to your economic future and probably make all the other pieces better. We're living in a time when the global is local and the local is global, right? So, the it's a dialectic uh in Marxist terms.

Now, Professor Lin, your worldview. I don't want to be accused of being a Marxist though. >> [laughter] >> No worries. You know, I think I have a very similar uh worldviews. Yeah. And uh like uh Furman have sat down together, right? Um it's a rare moment. I I don't want to claim that I intervene in the history of economic thought altogether by bringing the two of them together, but it is a rare moment and I learned tremendously from the two of them. As you see, there's intellectual synergy. Our goal is not to, you know, have a winner. Our goal is not to uh craft a formula for uh that that works across the globe, but it really it is about uh charting alternative frameworks of economic thinking about the difficult time we live in now. And I think the more this kind of conversation happens, the better it is for the China-US relations, certainly for the whole world. Thank you so much for being with us, and stay tuned on our future episodes. >> [music]