Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about Bitcoin but quite quickly. Not much is happening, it's the weekend and well, especially I said a lot of things in the last few days. We don't have any major changes on the BTC. So we will quickly look at that, especially in the short term. Then, we will talk about Ethereum and we will mainly focus on three altcoins that were asked to be analyzed. As usual, I try to share as many tips as possible with you and don't hesitate if you have topics you would like me to cover, whether it's from a psychological, trading, or money management perspective, no matter if it's big topics or a big question that I can answer like this in a video where I spend 10-15 minutes on it, I give a lot of things and it helps to resolve certain problems you might have. Don't hesitate to send me your notes and then I can build on them in a video.
So, I'll start here with BTC. We are still in this small retracement phase. 3 consecutive days in the red. Nothing alarming when we zoom out like this. We have simply pulled back to our previous old range. We had a buying reaction here on contact with this extremity. Here, we had a liquidity grab and a small buying reaction. For now, nothing alarming. When I look at the short term, we have a 15-minute chart that is breaking downwards but is starting to flatten out. In any case, there is a high chance that we will compress volatility this weekend because that's generally how weekends are, there is low volatility and so we compress and we have a big move that is decided on Monday. Often, on Sunday afternoon, there can be a start of volatility. It happens quite often, but otherwise, it remains rather calm. So for me, we are in a phase where on BTC, we have to wait, we shouldn't start making big decisions since we are simply breaking and quietly pulling back. Okay? If there is a re-entry, then there will be a re-entry and we will take the necessary measures. But as long as there is no re-entry, we absolutely do not anticipate it. For me, the biggest probability here is to make a higher low than the previous one and go for this next resistance zone. However, what we absolutely need to be careful about is if we start retracing here, to monitor our short re-entry zone between 0.18 0786 because in this zone, we could potentially structure a top. And if we structure a top, it could be the second peak of a reversal structure. Well, as we did here on the 1-hour chart, except it was on a shorter term. You see, we have a first peak here, I draw my Fibonacci, we wick perfectly here at 0.118 to form a lower peak than the previous one and structure a bigger market top. So that's exactly what happened here but on a more long-term, medium-term basis. And it's always like that. As soon as you have a big drop, a significant drop like this that breaks lows, that shows us that okay, we have a seller awakening, we very often have a rebound. It's very rare that we have something like this, an upward trend and suddenly bam. No, often we will do Sarah, Sarah. Okay. And then we will do tac. And then, very often, we have a rebound in the short re-entry zone between 018 07 186 and it's in this zone that you need to be careful.
Often, we form a W structure and continue, okay? Because we are still in the direction of our basic trends. But if we start to structure a top, that's where you really need to be careful because that's where the market has the highest probability of reversing and that's where you have a very good entry point, either to take a short, or to lighten your exposure. And that's a very good strategy that you can remember. Someone who says, "You know, I'm not trying to anticipate a top, but I'm trying to reduce my exposure when I start to see a big reversal structure." The rebound in the short re-entry zone is a good zone to simply lighten up. So, and that's why if I draw a Fibonacci, that's also why this zone of $106,000, there is a good confluence between $108,000, it's our short re-entry zone. Here on the weekly chart, we could potentially be on a lower peak than the previous one which could happen in this zone. That's why it's a level that is really watched by a lot of people because if the market tops out here, it would be a bearish signal. So, in any case, I'm not guaranteeing that we will retrace, but it is very common to form a larger reversal structure. This works in one direction as well as the other.
If I take BTC here, I'll look at the daily chart. You see when I have this first, oops, I'll erase everything to make it simpler. You see when I have this first V-bottom rebound, we are coming from a bearish dynamic. Okay? And then bam, V-bottom rebound. That's a V-bottom rebound. What do we do? Well, we calmly come back to retest this low. I'll take my Fibonacci from the lowest point. Oops, we calmly come back to retest and we pull back to our re-entry zone between 0.18 and 0.786. And I'm not saying we do this all the time, but it's quite frequent to have this type of pullback to then form a larger structure or have a bullish recovery, whatever. But in any case, that's what we need to watch out for. For example, if on Sunday we start to have a push and we start to block here, then be careful not to have a larger structure being built. In any case, for now, I have the same bias, I have the same opinion. I am ready to invalidate if the market gives me signals that go against my view. But for now, we are simply on a breakout. And as I said, in the very short term, I will put the moving average and pivot points. Oops, there. For now, the 1-hour tunnel is oriented upwards. If we come back to test this zone of $94,000, a psychological round number, weekly pivot point, 1-hour tunnel, a very good zone to look for longs. We are losing momentum in the short term. So it's difficult to continue the trend here in the very short term with a 15-minute chart that is flat. And of course, we will need to watch the weekly pivot points that will be formed next week because they will also be interesting levels to take longs or shorts to lighten up and simply locate our trading.
So, on this side for BTC, regarding the order flow. There. We simply have a decrease in open interest, and we saw this together that if we start to see that we are holding this phase, it was quite interesting. This whole rise was driven here with open interest that was rising. This rise here, then it calmed down. Here we have a slight rise, we see it, but not supported at all. For now, we don't have a lot of volume. It's calm, we see that it's calm on open interest, we don't have big spikes either, we even have position closures. It can be longs taking profits. It's simply possible to have longs closing their positions and simply lightening up. If I look at the CVD here, we saw together that we had an absorption. Okay? We saw this at this level where we were, I'll erase everything. Oops, let's do it like this to see better. There. And let's do it like this where we see that at this level, we make a lower peak than the previous one, and here, we make a higher peak. This shows us that there was absorption. A lot of buyers pushed, but were absorbed by limit sells. So, this is something to always take into account. For now, I don't see any reversal signals. Here, we are doing an inverse absorption. This is rather good. It's true, I hadn't specifically seen it, but here, we see that it's slight, it's not as blatant and impactful as what we saw before. But here, we are making a lower low on the CVD. Whereas here on BTC, we are not making a lower low compared to this level. This simply indicates that there were quite a few sellers, but they were also absorbed by buyers. In any case, this is unlike many indicators that we can use, quite classic ones like MACD, moving averages, etc. I'll do this faster. Okay. Moving averages, pivot points, where these are simply indicators that are calculated based on price evolution. Generally, when we do order flow, these are simply indicators that are calculated based on volumes. It's a different style of trading. There are no miracles, okay? They remain tools, indicators, probabilities, risk management, but it allows for a totally different approach.
So, on this side for BTC, regarding Ethereum, we are still in this consolidation phase. We will see a weekly close that is still within this range. Now, it's true that if I take the closes, we are validating a W structure, higher lows, higher peaks, breaking our W structure. So it's quite good. Now, I always prefer to look at the wicks. Wicks always tell a story, meaning something happened. And here, what I see is that we are still within this lateralization phase, blocked between two boundaries. Of course, for now, we are breaking above our value area high. As long as we don't re-enter it, it's quite good. However, if we start to re-enter it, then there will be a high chance of reaching at least the opposite extreme point. This is classic. Each time, you take your value area low or value area high. What do we do at this level? We go above, opposite extreme. Here, we re-enter, opposite extreme. Here, we go back up, opposite extreme. Here, we go back, opposite extreme. It's quite classic. And sometimes when we re-enter, there can be some buying or selling pressure that generally stops around the middle of the range. This can indicate a rather bullish signal that tells us, "Okay, maybe we are ready to break this range because, unlike before where buyers showed up at the bottom of the range, here, they consider this a good level to show up." This means that at that moment, sellers are not interested in placing a bottom because they think it's not interesting. Here, the price doesn't interest us. Here also, ah, here we place a bottom. Here, the price interests us. Here, the price interests us, and here, the price interests us as well. So, it means that buyers are interested at a higher price. Potentially, it's to push higher as well. It's a possibility, it's not systematic, but it's still an analysis you can consider. In any case, what I see here by zooming out and taking a step back on Ethereum, we are still in a range, and as long as we don't break $3400, the biggest probability is a rejection. Now, what's difficult is that this contradicts the analysis with BTC a bit because, of course, if BTC breaks out and pumps, there's a high chance that Ethereum will also push. And that's where in cases like this, I prefer not to do much because on one hand, we have Bitcoin breaking out, and Ethereum on resistance. So, there. However, if Bitcoin re-enters, yes, then there will be an interesting signal with an invalidation above the range.
On the short term, it's globally the same. I'll put tunnels, pivot points here. We are rejecting at the level of the daily tunnel and also at the level of the monthly pivot point, which is not displayed here, but I can display it. Oops, there. Monthly pivot point, resistance one. So, there was a good confluence zone here. Here, we are making a bottom perfectly on the weekly pivot point, resistance one, but which we broke and which is now supposed to act as support. For now, we have moving averages oriented upwards. We have no signs of reversal. Again, we are at high levels, but we don't really have an inversion. The close is not great here. That's a fact. Now, I would rather look at this upper extremity on the daily chart. Yes, daily, 12-hour would be more interesting. 4-hour, in any case, to trade this range. We see that it's a range where we need to increase the time frame to get an overview. So personally, I would look much more at the 12-hour chart. We are not in a 1-hour or 4-hour range here. You see, these are 1-hour, 4-hour ranges, at most this kind of range. But here, we need to look at the 12-hour chart, so automatically it's better to have a breakout like this on this type of time unit. However, what is certain on Ethereum is that if we go back below $3250, we would have a market top structure. And yes, that would not be good. Now, we see that sellers are struggling to wake up. Why? Because every time we came back to test rather high levels, we had a direct seller awakening. We see it here, we almost have a bearish engulfing. Here, we have a direct bearish engulfing with quite a few upper wicks, whereas here, we see that it takes time before rejecting. This shows us that buyers are indeed showing up.
Now, regarding the altcoins that were asked to be analyzed, here is CUBE. I don't know what it is at all. Okay, it seems to be a quite recent altcoin. Or I don't have the chart. Okay, perfect. Oh, this is already a low-cap altcoin. We see liquidity issues here. When I look, well, we are simply blocked in a range. This crypto, this project, did not launch in the best of periods. And from the perspective of range amplitude, we are still at 200%. So there's potential. Now, when you trade this kind of crypto, you simply have to accept that you're not here to make x10, x20, and sometimes you can just trade the trend. Here, there is an upward trend. You just need to zoom in. If you look at the weekly, it's difficult to trade the trend continuation. Here, there is also a trend that lasted from September to about November, December. So it lasted a few months. Okay, let's say 3 months. There's potential for trend continuation. And here, we are rather in a strategy where we position ourselves on the lower bound and take profits in the middle of the range or at the upper bound. We see that the middle of the range is also a point of interest, a level that acts as resistance or support. In any case, yes, things are happening, and it's simply about positioning yourself on the extremities, having clear invalidations which will simply be our exit from the range downwards. After, be careful with this kind of wick, you can get liquidated quite quickly. So, on this, I would always advise you to stay in spot. After, well, I'm on crypto, you'll have to take, I don't know which platform causes this kind of wick, but well, on this, stay in spot because we are on a low market cap altcoin. We can check this on KU, KUB, KUD or KUB KUB Coin. We are what? Okay, $90 million market cap, 3 cents. So no, it's a low capitalization. We see that it's not listed on big exchanges like Binance, etc. So, well, this is something you need to consider. And where we are, well, we are coming back to test the lower extremity. We are in a good zone to potentially take longs. Now, we need a buying reaction. We need an inversion of our moving averages. This seems to be the case for now, at least in the medium term. You see, we have crossed above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour. So it's quite good. The signal is a bit late. For me, the ideal entry was here at the time of the retest. We see that on the daily chart, we are forming a W structure with here, oops, a low, our neckline at this level, a higher low, the breakout. Okay, we flip the moving averages upwards, we go above the 4-hour, above the 1-hour, and we see that we flip them into support. Here, it's interesting to position yourself with an invalidation below the structure. Here, it's a bit higher. So, here we are rather on trend following, trend continuation, but not in a bottom-fishing strategy, which is completely different. However, if we retrace, potentially, then we shouldn't retrace too much because otherwise we invert our dynamic. And we see that at the moment, it's the daily tunnel that has been acting as resistance for a long time. This is very visible, we always reject inside. So, also a long-term signal you can watch is the breakout of this daily tunnel.
Then, I was asked for an analysis of KDA crypto as well. Oh, that's ugly. There's a very high chance that this is an altcoin that has been delisted from Coinbase, Binance. Well, it can only be when they are delisted from small exchanges, generally it doesn't cause this kind of drop. You have to move on. Well, if you are invested long-term, well, first of all, it's a crypto that doesn't make you want to invest long-term. There were indeed gains to be made when we had this kind of W structure. Then we made a x3. So there was potential here, also bullish structure. There are indeed performances to be made and positions to be taken. However, if you start to say, "Ah, I'm entering here because I think we're going back to the ATH, I'll hold until death because it's crypto, it's the future," that's generally not the right approach. And we see that in the end, there was probably very little demand. It's not profitable for the exchange to keep this kind of crypto, or it's a project that was not compliant with regulations. And so, well, we see that we have this kind of drop, it means that there are delistings automatically. This was when? October 10th. Well, maybe not this one, but this one, there's a high chance. Yes, there's a high chance. And this is a dead project. So when it's delisted from Binance, from all that, let's go see KDA 1606. Yes, 1600. Yes, 1600. How much market cap is there? 2 million. Ah, on Gate. But yes, it's dead. It's certain that it must have been listed on bigger exchanges given the market cap it must have had at one point. It went up to $3.5 billion market cap, and now it's down to $2 million. It's impossible for a project like this to reach $3.5 billion market cap by being listed only on these platforms. So, well, I'm almost convinced that there was this, plus surely token dilution, which doesn't help anything. This is a project to throw in the trash. You see, sometimes when I tell you about altcoins tending towards zero, well, here's an example. I'll put it on logarithmic, but here's an example of an altcoin tending towards zero. Its peak was $28. Now it's $0.008. For me, that's zero. Going from $28 to this low is almost -99.99%. For me, that's zero, and there are many altcoins that will tend towards zero like this because there will be no more volume, because they will be delisted, and that's it. These were projects that perhaps pumped, I say perhaps, it's a delisting from an exchange, it could also be that the project is dead, announcement of closure, etc. There is always supply and demand, but well, in any case, forget about it and don't invest in this kind of crypto.
And I was asked here about Trump. Trump, I'll take. Can I have a more historical chart? I bought it with what back then, at the very beginning? Qcoin. No, maybe Mex. Bing, it's been there from the start. Bing! Oops. Trump is here. No, I'm missing a part here. I'm missing a bit. I bought it at $11 back then and sold it at $33-34. It was a very, very good trading day where I scalped all day on Trump, and I don't remember where I got it at all. I don't know where to get it. Kraken. Ah, Kraken, no, that was the I can't find it. Where is it though? Bitgate. Ah, maybe Bitgat. We went from what here? Yes, exactly. Bitgat, that's it, I think. We also went up fast. Yes, surely. Well, ah, but I'm on logarithmic, that's why I'm messed up. No, for the anecdote, for me on Trump, it's really, well, it's Trump, his team, etc. It's not Trump who launched the project, but in any case, it was on his Twitter, etc., he did the promotion for it, and it was at the beginning when he was elected president, a few months, a few months after. And the anecdote for me is that I wake up in the morning quite early, well, not too early either, and I see the token at $11. I say, "Wow, what's happening? The project has already pumped a lot." And at that moment, I tell myself this project will continue to rise because not everyone has the news. Not everyone. Some people are sleeping, not everyone has the news. It was a weekend, I remember, it was the weekend, and I entered at $11 on my end. I entered at $11 and I also scalped the entire rise. Why? Because there were price errors on exchanges. It was quite simple. There were so many volumes, so many pricing errors. There were discrepancies between different exchanges. I take Bing, I take others, there were huge de-correlations. So there was something to take advantage of, and I had a very good day, and I exited globally at this level, $32-33. I sold heavily and I didn't take advantage of this rise, but you see, you can make a lot in just a few hours. And I exited here because for me, it was too much, we were in a frenzy, we were in the top 15 market cap on CoinMarketCap, it was too much. Then I expected a cool project like this in the long term. Now, it seems to me, I even talked about it at this level. I told you, be careful, this is the kind of project of the day, tomorrow it can do x2, and bingo, it did x2 quite quickly. Now it's rather dead in the long term. It's complicated.
Now, there will always be pump phases like this when there are press releases, when there are, it's a bit like Dogecoin, it's a bit like Elon Musk when he spoke about Dodge back then. Well, we will have phases like this. But here, as long as we don't structure a big W pattern, for me, this is a project that continues to be in this bearish phase with downward-oriented moving averages. Very clearly visible here. Daily tunnel oriented downwards on the 4-hour as well. For me, there's nothing to do except wait for a bigger structure, a breakout of the daily tunnel, and then in the long term, it would be interesting. But in any case, for now, the flow remains bearish. The moving averages are still oriented downwards. So, be careful for those who wish to position themselves long-term on this kind of project.
So, we have mainly analyzed the altcoins. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.