Transcription
Hello everybody. This is a wild story today. Over the last six weeks to two months, I've been watching the amount of money flowing into Ethereum and all the impact of that. And you know, since 2021, I've put together this thing called the IIA multiplier for Bitcoin. Now, I've done it for Ethereum and Solana in this video. What would happen if the flows are a fraction of what went into Ethereum? We'll do all the math and all the modeling. This one's called the Saul versus ETH multiplier. And shout out to Raj as well, the founder of Solana, who inspired this video yesterday.
This is normally Oct today. That'll come tomorrow. But I do believe everybody is sleeping on the impact of treasuries or what they now call DATs, digital asset treasury companies, DATs. Remember that word. It's a new, new buzzword. I used to just call them treasure companies, but also ETFs. It's all happening at the same time at the hottest point of the year for this asset. Let's get into it. And, uh, thank you all for coming. And thank you to the Mazda chat, too. Uh, and I'm just a guy on the internet who just models numbers. They could be completely wrong, but I lay it all out so you can make your own assumptions. And thank you to everybody on Patreon, too. Is from Aaron 87. James is the goat, just joined Patreon. Woohoo! I love that. It was a very funny skit. Aaron, uh, can't remember. I saw it on Twitter once. Anyway, inspired by Raj. This was the tweet last night. Solana DATs, digital asset treasuries are going to be monstrous and first principles tuned to what makes Solana great. It will be obvious in retrospect, but I don't think anyone is fully ready for how this can play out. It only takes one epic corner for the race to change leads, considering staking. And as my comment at the bottom, the multiplier will be through the roof. We'll simulate tomorrow. Well, here we are. Let's get into it.
A little bit of news first as well before we get into the actual numbers, which are fun. Really fun. Uh, this one is from Rex Osprey, CEO Greg King. He basically says on Bloomberg that Solana is faster, frankly. And when he saw the big debate about stablecoins all being built on ETH, I was like, that's a huge oversight. Again, fake news saying fake things. And Rex thinks, Greg King from Rex thinks that Solana is the future as far as stablecoins go. And if you look at the amount of minting, it is quite substantial. Yes, Tether is still the king, but Circle and Solana are catching up fast. Anyway, Circle has minted $25 billion of USDC on Solana so far in 2025. Much of it in the last five months.
Now, let's get into the other crazy news. I'm just going to flutter through these real quick. This is some of the money flow that's coming in of these DATs, digital asset treasury companies. Crypto giant Galaxy, Jump, and Multicoin are all looking to raise a billion dollars for the largest Solana treasury. Too late. Uh, there's already going to be large ones. This is like a, a nuclear arms race to get billions to buy Solana. Okay, but that's Galaxy. And by the way, Cantor Fitzgerald, who has C is running the deal. Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, US government commerce secretary. You got to see all the different, uh, puppet masters behind the scenes. Very important to be aware of them. The big money is controlling the show, not you as a retail investor. And this is from Ricardo. I touched on this briefly yesterday. When top-tier funds coordinate to raise a billion dollars to load up and sell, it's no longer about hype, it's about conviction. They must be looking at these videos and the data. And then enter Pantera, OG in the space for a very long time. Pantera plans to raise $1.25, $25 billion to convert a public company into a Solana investment firm. They're going to call it Solana Company. How original. And remember, they did buy $250 million worth of locked SOL last year and, uh, they will be buying more and rolling this into the new company, probably. I guess I surmise. But also remember, I think it was Joe Lubin, who is a founder of Consensus, founder of Ethereum, has massive Ethereum bags. If I'm not mistaken, he seated Sharplink Gaming with ETH as well to build the ETH treasury company Sharplink. So, which has a better NAV premium than Bitmain from Tom Lee. Anyway, in other news too, Sharps, another not Sharplink Gaming, but Sharps Technology wants to raise 400 million to also buy Solana. And of course, DeFi Development Corporation raising it under 125 million to buy more Solana. I'll share with you the SOL treasury companies at the end and how much they have and their NAV premium. So stay tuned for that.
But let's get into the numbers because this is what literally keeps me awake at night. Numbers that I can't sleep because they keep going around in my head and, and this is what kept me awake last night. Let's look at a little bit of history, a little bit of recent history. Let's go back before Tom Lee became the champion of ETH and TRDFI. All right. Asset under management for all the ETH ETPs, ETFs around the world was 13.971 billion. Call it 14 billion between friends. Yeah, big amount. But then Tom Lee enters the scene and he says he's setting up a company. This is the important part. It's the halo effect. This is not the money flowing into Tom Lee's firm, but the money in TRDFI flowing into ETFs because of what Tom Lee was doing with his new firm. This is the important part. Okay. Assets under management jumped in a matter of weeks to 41, sorry, 40.7 billion, not 41.7, 40.7 billion. Monstrous growth in funds literally between June and July. That's it. August has been flat, but June and July, eight weeks, all that action happened. Okay, then let's take it back. Let's break down what also happened during that time frame. Ethereum doubled. Okay, so now we can track the money flow and the impact on the market cap and the price of the asset. This is where it gets really interesting. ETH price doubles since mid-June. Okay, up 99%. Boom. I'm going to call that a doubling. Going to call it 100%. I'm going to throw in a little, little extra 1% there because literally it's probably popping as we speak. Don't have my TradingView open. Let's check on the ETH price live. I'll tell you if it did go up since I did this, uh, because ETH was under. It did. It's gone up $69. So, yes, it is up 100% since all of this activity happened.
Now, let's look at the numbers. Hope I don't lose anybody here. And it's really simple. I boiled it down to the core basics. Okay, ETH ETFs and ETSs around the world added 27.8 billion worth of inflow since June. Tom Lee added about 1.7 million ETH, which is 5.4, 4 billion. These two together is 33.2 billion. But the market cap in that time frame from that inflow grew from 224 billion to $550 billion and this multiplier is 6.81x. Okay, don't overthink it, but if a billion dollars flows into Ethereum, okay, all you have to do is take 6.81, 81 times the billion and divide it by the number of actual outstanding circulating tokens and that's the increase in price. That's it. Not hard. And I've been doing this for nearly five years for crypto and it works. It really does work. It's on the money because I also track the ETF flows every single day for nearly a year and a half and the MicroStrategy buys. It has a direct impact on price. Maybe not the same day, but definitely within a couple of days. And even people like Eric Balchunas, who knows a lot about the Bogle, the Boglehead. He has a book about Bogle and funds and everything else. But for a TradFi guy to come out and say Solana is faster, E, and when he saw the whole debate, etc., and Greg King being on IQ fired today was very impressive. So this is an example. The reason I mentioned Eric Balchunas is now Solana is on his radar. Okay. From a stablecoin perspective, he's seen everything that's happened with Ethereum over the past two months. Now, he thinks something could ignite next. But there's more.
Let's get into exactly what happened over the last 48 hours. Over the last 48 hours, we, uh, had technically you could argue, and there's nuances there regarding which assets are where and what's unlocked and when do they buy them, but again, it doesn't matter. Okay. Think of the halo effect. But eight new ETFs are incoming real soon, probably before the end of September. And Solana had a 48-hour raise, which is half of what Tom Lee did in seven weeks. All right, they pulled in 2.8 billion of buy pressure announced in 48 hours. That's half of what Tom Lee did in seven or eight weeks. That's important to know. And conservatively for this model, I assume that Solana does half of what Tommy and the ETFs could do over a much longer time frame. Not two months, but I'm doubling it to four months. And I'm only taking half of the money coming in, considering how much is coming in so fast and how quickly Wall Street is waking up to this very, very, very, very, very undervalued asset. I've been screaming from the rooftops the whole year, especially over the last two months. It's like how ridiculously cheap this is. Wait till you see the supply side model too.
Now back to the model. Let's talk about some supply side dynamics because this goes into my multiplier. You look, take total ETH supply, 120 million ETH. 29.64% is staked, call it 35 million. Liquid supply is 84 million. And this is important because that multiplier is really a function of what can be purchased. So if you have 10 apples for sale and there's 10 buyers come in to buy 10 apples, you say you got a dollar an apple. But what happens if there's only seven apples for sale and you got 10 buyers? Of course, the price will not be a dollar. It'll be higher. That's why it's very important to look at the amount of liquidly, liquidly available.
Now let's compare this to the Solana supply side dynamics with the ETH kicker. Okay, this is where it gets a bit tricky, so bear with me here. Staking ratio for Solana is 66.74%. Call it 67%, which means 33% is liquid. 33%. But the other crazy thing, okay, this is really bonkers. The market cap of Ethereum is 5.556 times higher than the market cap of Solana. Okay, we have literally more money coming in faster that went into Ethereum on an asset that's 18% of the size where nearly 70% is staked, only 33% is liquid. I hope everybody's tracking me here because this is important for the model and the numbers get bonkers. I'm not saying these numbers are going to happen, but let's pretend they do and then I show you some other modeling too. But putting it all together, if the SOL buy over the next four months is half of what Ethereum took in, 16.6 billion, and the ETHIA multiplier is 6.81x, and the liquidity and market cap kicker is 12.7x, the new SOL IIIA multiplier is 87x, which is absolutely bonkers. And if you take 87x times the current price, you get to $2,674. I'm not saying that that's going to happen, but it will happen eventually according to Van, because their price target is $3,211. Not far off the $2,674, but I'm only talking a short time frame here. Okay, but let's not go with that crazy 87x because that's wild. Way too wild.
Let's look at something more conservative. My old Bitcoin multiplier applying it to Solana using a very conservative 10x because the Bitcoin multiplier back in 2021 when Elon Musk bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin was 21. Solana is much smaller, much smaller, and also much, it's much less liquid because so much is staked. Remember, only 33% is available. But even just taking a 10x multiplier and assuming 16.6, 6 billion comes in across the nine different ETFs and all the treasury companies that are fomoing into it. That would take the price to $498. If you assume a 20x multiplier, which is more realistic, $805. A 40x multiplier, considering the liquidity of the asset, that would take it to $1,420. I don't make up the numbers. The model does. I just plug them in. Wild. Wild. But just if you want to be super conservative. All right, take this the 10x. Okay, and that'll take us to $498. Remember, Solana does 70% of all activity on-chain. All chains, one chain does 70%. Just remember that.
Now let's go to the old handy-dandy Solopside model, which we built back in 2021 coincidentally to understand where the price could go if we start looking at relative market caps. Now, this is a free TradingView model available to anybody. Link will be above. It'll be here after the show. And let's look at the SOL offset model. Okay, right now, cool, cool thing to point out here. Again, we're just trading at 18% of ETH market cap despite Solana offering far more liquidity, having far more users, doing far more transactions, being far cheaper, far faster. In fact, it's about 33,000% better, cheaper, faster across 10 different key ratios. No, 331,000% better. That's how different it is. TradFi has begun to wake up to how different this technology is to others. But back in May 2025, SOL was at 33% of ETH market cap. That's not long ago, by the way. May 2025 is right before Tom Lee kicked things off for Ethereum. That's that's where we were. Now we're 18% of ETH's market cap. Could we go back to 33% of ETH market cap? Well, if we do, the price would go to $328. If we go to half of Ethereum's market cap, price will go to $59, which is very close to this $498. The 10x multiplier if the money flows in. And this is also assumes that ETH market cap stays constant, which no, it won't. It'll grow as well. It'll get bigger. And if we get higher up to say 70% of ETH market cap, price goes to $760. Okay, this is interesting. Now, and all of these data points I'm showing you, Solana is desperately undervalued. It's like me screaming from the rooftops when Solana was $20 in 2021 and then the $8 event back in late 2022 for the gift that keeps on giving. But here we are now.
Treasury companies. There are a few, but there's more coming, big ones coming. But just to show you some of the NAV premiums for some of these treasury companies, we got UPXI, which was trading at 0.7. It's 21% discount to it. Solana bag a few weeks ago, and it's trading under four bucks. Now it's $8.30. NAV premium is 1.13, 13% premium. DeFi Dev is 55% premium. MFH is a new one. Looks like a real zombie company. They haven't bought anything yet as far as I know, but they do have plans. If they did buy, it would be 1.58, but ignore them and see why FRD is 2.72. Again, uh, all very, very different.
But let's get into the conclusion and boil it down to really brass tacks and hammer these numbers home to make sure nobody is confused along the way. First of all, the ETH multiplier. 33 billion flowed into ETH and it doubled the market cap from 224 billion to 550 billion. It actually over doubled it and the price went up by 100%. A $33 billion inflow into ETH. Again, double the price. That should be, yeah, $2,280 to $4,600. It's been nothing short of mesmerizing. That's the 7x multiplier again. And the reason I'm excited to see ETH going up because a rising tide floats all boats. But I have a twist at the end of this show which will blow your mind.
Now SOL multiplier, bringing it home again. SOL has a 5.5x smaller market cap, much higher staking ratio, 67% versus 29% for ETH. So theoretically the amplifier, the multiplier should be a lot higher. 12.78x times the 7x, which makes things crazy. But again, if to get real conservative and we say it's not 7x, but just 10x takes us to $498, a 20x takes us to $805. And 70% of ETH market cap is exactly that $805 number as well. Again, I'm finding confluence across multiple indicators and models. A quick reminder of the SOL versus ETH data, the quant that matters. And people say, "Oh, well, the Nakamoto coefficient is incorrect for Ethereum at two." No, it's not. If you look at the amount that's core held in two players, if you can control those two players, you can control ETH. That's the Nakamoto coefficient. And all the data you see here in this model comes automatically from data services that we pay for. And shout out to the dev team that keeps this thing alive every single day. Appreciate that. Okay, but again, it's just data. You can ignore it and you can make up your own Nakamoto for Ethereum if you want. But the point is, uh, SOL is a thousand percent more decentralized.
I do want to talk about decentralization for a second because there's talk of governments coming into, uh, things like stablecoins and monitoring government GDP data using a blockchain or the Euro CBDC coming out. They're going to float it on the blockchain. They are not going to pick a decentralized chain. They will pick a centralized one so they can control it. I want that to be perfectly clear. So all the people that are excited about maybe Europe will launch their CBDC on Solana. No, it's not going to happen. It's too decentralized. They can't control it. They want control.
Okay, let's look at some other numbers here. Block time 3,000% faster. That is, Solana is 3,000% faster than ETH. Finality 360,000% quicker. Transactions per second 1.6 million% higher. Daily transactions 6,000% more. Users 700% more. Transactions per user 702% more. And transaction cost 2.6 million% cheaper. And cost efficiency 28,000% better. And market cap over active users 3,400% better. It's the most egregious mispricing of assets I have ever seen in 35 years of analyzing assets. Just want to say that. But hey, as they say as well, uh, markets can stay irrational longer than you can say liquid. So, be careful out there.
Now, I do want to say one other thing, too. You always hear me say winner takes most. What do you mean by that? Well, look at history. Okay, examples of winners take most. iOS versus Android. Yes, Android has more, but they have cheaper phones used in the third world countries, uh, etc. iOS has way more profits. Google search versus Microsoft and others. Google has over 90% search share. Before AI, they could get disrupted. We'll see. Windows versus Mac OS, OS versus Linux. Windows smokes everything. VHS versus Betamax. VHS won. MP3 versus other codecs. MP3 won. Facebook versus MySpace versus all the other social things. Facebook won. Now that's changing with X, by the way. Uh, YouTube versus others. YouTube wins. Amazon versus eBay versus all, all the online retailers. Amazon wins. Uber versus Lyft and all the other rideshares. Uber wins. Visa versus Amex. Visa wins. PayPal versus Eagle versus WebMoney versus all the other players. PayPal wins. Winner takes most. Granted, some of these on this list get disrupted. Nobody watching this video actually has a VHS recorder right now. Guaranteed. At least I'd be shocked if they did.
But this is the final piece which is a real twisty kicker. Actually, penultimate piece. What would happen? We've seen technically, I know there's a rotation happening from Bitcoin into Ethereum. You see that with the ETF funds. They've dried up for Bitcoin and still accelerated into Ethereum. And you can see old wallets selling their Bitcoin and pumping Ethereum. Things like that happening. So there is rotation happening, which is the first sign of an alt season. But this is just food for thought. Okay, 40 billion flowed into Ethereum over the last two months or so. What would happen if that $40 billion that went into ETH over the past two months left ETH and went into Solana? Anybody want to hazard a guess? Well, I got a model for that. Tada. Here we are. Seat belts, please. If we use the 10x multiplier, they'll take the price to $934 bucks. 20x multiplier, be $1,674. That's the difference with a very small asset that's very illiquid, heavily staked, and when billions flows into it, it's going to be bonkers. Okay, I'm going to take us right back to Raj at the very beginning. Raj gets it. He knows numbers. Very smart guy. Solana DATs are going to be monstrous and first principles tuned to what makes Solana great. It will be obvious in retrospect, but I don't think anyone is fully ready for how this can play out. That's not true. Raj, you're wrong there. Cuz I do. I do. I just share the numbers. Final piece. Final piece. Ready? Oh, I, I share those numbers. That's, that's what could happen, by the way, if there is another rotation of what the money went into ETH over the past two months goes into Solana. Bonkers. Wild. Wild. And if there's no profit takers, this could actually happen.
And final point, did I mention that Solana is the only crypto player apart from Jeremy from Circle, which is a stablecoin player which works very closely with Solana, is Solana today? Is going to be attending with the All-In Pod people and this includes gurus like Kathy Wood, Dra from Uber, speaking of Uber again, head of YouTube, and many other players, all the legends like Vlad as well from Robin Hood, great trading platform. And that's the story today. Sorry for interrupting Octa, but when something timely comes in like this that needs to get out fast, it happens. And finally, have hope, everybody. There's a funny meme I saw yesterday. Is my room still available? Yes, Mom. All season is cancelled again. Don't worry, all season is coming. Just wait four months or less. I hope you got smarter. Enjoy the model. Uh, hope, hope you enjoy this. Vlad TV is my dad. Awesome. Jane Smith, that's cool. Uh, thank you TD. Thank you Sean D. Thank you K8. Thank you everybody for coming. And a big thank you as well to David Graham, QS Coiner, Swiper No Swiping, Mary Magdalene, and French streamer. Mary Magdalene always turns up for the SOL videos. You must have sags. Anyway, thank you all for coming. Have a good night. Bye-bye.
[Music]