Transcription
See you. I know you've been on live now talking about this before.
Um, what happens on Sunday, uh, for everyone who has TikTok on their phone, who uses it on a daily basis? What happens?
Well, as you said, the big question mark is does the Supreme Court say anything? So, I want to say that this is what we expect to happen absent Supreme Court involvement.
So, Supreme Court ruling. But I would say, based on the arguments we heard at the Supreme Court last Friday, I don't expect them to save TikTok.
So, what happens? We know that the law that Congress passed says that app stores, so the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, cannot provide TikTok as a new download as of Sunday.
We also suspect, though it's never been confirmed, that any U.S. company cannot host TikTok. So much of TikTok user data is on Oracle services, a historical American company.
And so, there's been some speculation that the user data for existing users would maybe have to be moved to offshore servers, uh, data centers after Sunday to make sure that it's still operable for existing TikTok users.
The big question mark is that there have been multiple news reports in the last day that TikTok plans to actually just take the app dark for all Americans, even existing users, not try to move it to offshore data centers.
Uh, perhaps to show the American people what they'd be losing, perhaps in some kind of strategy to try to get some salvation after that. But that is apparently the company's plan.
Well, we don't know that for certain, but that's been reported in the last couple of days. So, it seems like there's a failure of imagination kind of going on here.
Um, because there are so many users daily on TikTok, to the tune of what, 150 million? Um, we just don't know what that landscape looks like, and maybe we will on Sunday, and maybe we won't.
But, uh, the Biden Administration, and even some lawmakers who voted for this ban in the first place, have come out in recent days and have hedged quite a lot here.
Uh, saying that they would prefer a delay of implementation. Even the incoming Trump Administration has taken that tack as well.
I did not know you could do that with U.S. law that's being adjudicated at the highest court in the land.
We have this statement in on background, if I'm a White House official. They say, quote, "Our position on this has been clear. TikTok should continue to operate under American ownership."
Given the timing of when it goes into effect over a holiday weekend, a day before inauguration, it will be up to the next Administration to implement.
So, the Biden-Harris Administration is leaving the White House, and they're not actively going to enforce this. What do you make of that?
Well, a lot of Congress passed does say that this deadline of Sunday, um, the whoever is president at the time could grant a 90-day extension to that deadline to give ByteDance, which is TikTok's parent company, more time to find a buyer.
So, that authority exists solely with President Biden and candidly does not, in my view, extend to President Trump. That's not something that he has the ability to do.
The real problem, though, is that ByteDance has shown zero indication of wanting to find a buyer.
There are real questions about whether the Chinese government, which ultimately ByteDance has to abide by, will let ByteDance sell TikTok to an American company.
And they haven't done anything. This has been, you know, six months plus where they could have been making efforts to sell the service, but they haven't.
And so, I'm very doubtful that any extension of time would lead to any different result. I don't believe the Chinese government wants to allow ByteDance to sell TikTok to anyone.
But TikTok, all along, has cited free speech grounds as the rationale to fight this. But if you're ByteDance, the parent company, they're not necessarily taking that track here.
Or what do you think their move is? I mean, what will ByteDance do if they don't want it to be sold to an American entity?
And there was that report that they might shut it down altogether. That underscores the national security grounds, does it not?
Absolutely. Look, if TikTok was just some harmless video app, I'm not sure the Chinese government would have dug its heels in so deeply to prevent the sale.
So, the fact that they're resisting it so strongly kind of lends credence to people who say China views TikTok as a national security asset.
So, I think we ought to view those kind of protests as validation of the original concerns that people have had with TikTok.
But I think, you know, if this was a kind of a normal China, was kind of a normal country, and this is a normal company, I think they would have sold the company to an American owner because it would be validation.
Here was a Chinese corporate success story, but I don't believe that's going to happen.
Because now I think what will happen is it probably will go dark, and President Xi can say, well look, you know, to the Chinese people, "Look, this is just another example of those awful Americans mistreating us."
They'll use it for domestic propaganda purposes.
So, what's so interesting is there seems to be some cognitive dissonance going on here, especially amongst Republicans who arguably are hawks when it comes to China.
Um, but they are seemingly singing a different tune here. Incoming National Security Adviser Congressman Mike Waltz, uh, he was on Fox the other day.
Uh, he says the incoming Administration will put measures in place to keep TikTok from going dark.
So, how do you square those two things? If it is such a national security concern, if China is harvesting data with American users via ByteDance, yet, um, the incoming Administration wants to keep it in place, or at least delay the implementation, um, is there a disconnect there?
Yes, and it's all because of Trump, and automatically clear. This is not about really Republicans.
Most Republicans in Congress are still concerned about TikTok's Chinese ownership, but Mike Waltz, you know, used to be a TikTok critic.
Now he works for President Trump. Brendan Carr, the FCC chair, used to be a TikTok critic. Now works for President Trump.
Trump flip-flopped on China, and he flip-flops soon after one of his major donors talked to him last year.
One of his major donors is a major U.S. investor in TikTok, and, you know, since the election, TikTok executives have gotten in front of Trump and said, "Hey Trump, look how well your campaign performed on TikTok," playing to his ego.
Look, Trump governs from ego, not ideology.
And so, I don't think just because Trump has flip-flopped, I don't think that means most members of Congress have flip-flopped.
I actually believe, you know, members of Congress have actually written to Apple, Google, and Oracle in recent weeks saying we still expect you to abide by this law regardless of what Trump or Biden say.
But there are even some Democratic senators who voted for the ban in the first place.
I'm thinking Ed Markey of Massachusetts today. He introduced legislation to delay the implementation of this ban here.
So, where are they coming from? Why do they want this delayed? I think it's just downright weird. They voted for this thing.
Yeah, I think it's bizarre. It's certainly not a spine of steel.
Um, look, TikTok has had plenty of time to find a new owner. The fact that they haven't really should just validate Congress's original concerns.
I get that politicians don't want to be held responsible, but you know, this was all foreseeable.
I think it's perfectly acceptable to say TikTok's great; we just don't want to have Chinese ownership of one of our most important social media apps.
That was the line that Congress drew last year. It was pretty overwhelming. I think that's where still most members of Congress are.
Yeah, I guess we'll just have to wait and see if the Supreme Court does rule on this. I mean, they will rule on this before Sunday, right?
That's right. Now the question is, you know, would they? They do have the power to postpone the Sunday deadline.
It's a little strange that if they were going to do that, that they haven't done that yet.
It's frankly very strange that they haven't ruled at all.
Um, but I would say most observers of the arguments on Friday seem to, you know, agree that the court was leaning against TikTok, was leaning in favor of the national security arguments and against TikTok's First Amendment arguments, as you acknowledge they've made.
And so, I would be surprised if this Supreme Court throws a lifeline to TikTok at this stage because, obviously, the 19th is coming up.
It's on Sunday, the inauguration is on the 20th, Monday.
And we just got some reporting in that the chief executive, the CEO of TikTok has been invited to attend the inauguration.
So, I mean, can you even imagine if the ban does go in place and the Supreme Court upholds the law, and then you see the TikTok CEO on the day is there at the inauguration?
That's going to be quite the split screen.
Yes, it is. Yes, it is. It would be great, great TV watching.
Look, I think what will happen too is that I think it's very likely that Trump, in his first day in office on Monday, may issue an executive order where he says, "I'm directing my Justice Department not to enforce this law."
The problem is that the law holds Apple, Google, Oracle, and other American companies liable to the tune of dollars per user per day for violating this law.
And this law goes into effect. I mean, it's the law forever, even after Trump is president.
So, I would be very surprised if those companies would change their behavior just because of Trump saying that he agrees not to prosecute them.
That is not generally how most companies behave.
All right, and I'm just going to say, I don't know if you're a betting man, but if you were, come Sunday, will we be able to use TikTok or not?
Well, based on the reporting that the company plans to turn off the service completely, I don't think that it will be available.
I—that was not what I would have said a couple of days ago. I thought that it might still be available through offshore servers, but it seems that the company is, you know, drawing a clear line for what purpose, I don't know.
But it seems that they said it that way.
All right then, let's hope the sky does not fall on Sunday. Adam, thanks so much.