Transcription
You're going to see a trend in my most drafted wide receivers after a hundred real money fantasy drafts that honestly I think you're going to be able to exploit in your own drafts. And starting off with our seventh and sixth most drafted wide receivers, we're going to look at a pair of rookies. I have drafted both Carnell Tate as well as Jordan Tyson in 17 of my fantasy drafts so far this off season. And I'm going to take a hell of a lot more of them.
Now, before we talk about why each player on their own is very exciting with the situations they're stepping into, I do want to address the trend that we have seen in fantasy football. Because what we had years back is we had everybody looking at the win rate for rookie wide receivers and realizing, hell, these guys have such a high ceiling, especially in the second half of the season. They are way too cheap in fantasy drafts across the board. We need to push them up dramatically and target them almost regardless of the cost. And maybe that worked at first, right? But then it came to a tipping point, right? Like everything does. The pendulum swings one way and then it has to swing back the other where all of a sudden people went from seeing Garrett Wilson as a league winner in 2022, Jamar Chase, uh, Jillen Wadd as league winners in 2021 to the rookie wide receivers over the past few seasons being way too expensive. That includes like Marvin Harrison Jr. who is being drafted as the wide receiver nine in fantasy football drafts going into his rookie season.
So, I wanted to document this and I wanted to try to see what's a realistic price that we should be willing to pay for a wide receiver that just went top 10 in the NFL draft. If we go through since 2021, that's when we have publicly available underdog data, you will see that Devont Smith had an ADP of wide receiver 36. And what I want to be focusing on with these rookie wide receivers is the second half finish of their rookie seasons. You can do this very easily with the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com because of course when you're drafting rookie wide receivers like Carnell Tate, like Jordan Tyson, you're not doing so expecting them to hit the ground running week one, you're able to immediately jam them in your starting lineup. Of course, if they do, that's just an added bonus, but you're probably going to have to put them on your bench at first, wait until they have that breakout game, and then you can start them in the second half of the year. So, I'm going to be looking at their second half finish because that's why we are drafting these rookie receivers. So, in the fantasy football playoffs, they are going to be absolutely crushing and obviously they'll help you through the by-weeks as well.
But anyway, Dvont Smith was being drafted as the wide receiver 36. He finishes the wide receiver 31 in the second half of his rookie year. I'm going to mark that as a fair cost of him. Jaylen Wadd was being drafted as the wide receiver 43 in the second half of his rookie season. He finished as the wide receiver eight. I'm going to throw him in the league winner category, right? You draft a wide receiver four that ends up being a wide receiver one at the end of the season. That's beautiful. Jamar Chase was being drafted as the wide receiver 29 his rookie season. He ended up finishing as the wide receiver 14. I'm going to be putting him in the league winner category. Garrett Wilson was being drafted as the wide receiver 59 in his rookie season. He ended up finishing as the wide receiver 19. We're putting him in the league winner category. Drake London was being drafted at wide receiver 38. Finish as wide receiver 36. That was a fair cost. Roma Dunce was a pretty big bust. He was being drafted as the wide receiver 28. And you'll notice this is the stretch when these wide receivers begin to get pretty damn expensive. He finishes as the wide receiver 58 which was a bust. Malik Neighbors hit. He was being drafted as the wide receiver 18 finish as the wide receiver 12. Marvin Harrison was a massive massive bust being drafted as the wide receiver 9 finishing as the wide receiver 42. and Tedro McMillan being drafted as the wide receiver 27 finished as the wide receiver 25. That was probably a fair cost for where you took him.
But now we have to evaluate the other wide receivers that just went top 10 in the NFL draft with Carnell Tate as well as Jordan Tyson. Currently Carnell Tate is off the board as a mid wide receiver three as the wide receiver 29 and Jordan Tyson is going off as the wide receiver 31. At this price tag, historically, if we can carry over expected wide receiver hit rates for these guys that were selected inside the top 10 picks of the NFL draft, you will see that they have a better chance of turning into a league winner than they have a chance turning into a bust. And then obviously a lot of these prices may end up being fair. Like you could very easily see Jordan Tyson just finishing his rookie season as a wide receiver three. So, I do want to put that disclaimer out there where we went from seeing rookie wide receivers severely undervalued in drafts in like 2122. Then we got to 2024 2025 where rookie wide receivers were severely overdrafted. And now I think we've swung back in the other direction if you were looking at these guys respective cost.
Now we can go through and look at the prospect profiles that we have for both of these receivers. Starting with Jordan Tyson because Jordan Tyson's going to be my lowest conviction name in this entire video. Like he's the guy that I've drafted the least. We'll get to my highest conviction names at the end. And with Jordan Tyson, if we're going to look at what he gave you from an FSE grade perspective, this is the prospect model that's featured on flockfantasy.com. His closest comps were guys like DJ Moore, Jaden Higgins, Cory Coleman, and Jerry Judy. So obviously not ideal, but I think we can put an asterisk on this because Jordan Tyson was a receiver that dealt with a multitude of injuries in college where we only had one season from him in his entire collegiate career where he was able to play over 10 games and in that season he had,00 receiving yards. He had 10 receiving touchdowns that was good for 91 receiving yards per game. And what's very important to remember when we're looking at collegiate guys coming into the NFL is going to be the contextual numbers in their offense. And if we look at what we had from Arizona State that season, Jordan Tyson was the number one wide receiver and it wasn't even remotely close. The next highest receiver was 26 receiving yards per game, less than 30% of what Jordan Tyson gave you. So he was dominant at a good school at an early age. This is a school that finished 11 and three. And you had massive injury concerns coming into the NFL draft, which is why people thought he was going to be going late round one. However, he held his own private tryyouts. Teams went and visited him. If y'all remember, there were a ton of rumors circling around the New York Giants also taking him inside the top 10 about the Kansas City Chiefs potentially taking him inside the top 10, but it was the New Orleans Saints who ended up doing it. And ultimately, while you have a l in New Orleans, you have no other target competition. And the other thing that I want to point out is if we are looking at sportsbook projections and trying to determine how this Tyler Shuck offense is going to transition from 2025 to 2026, you'll see sports books think the Saints are going to get better. They actually only average 18 points per game in 2025, but their current projection for 2026 has them slightly over 21 as one of the more improved offenses in the league. So, I think that Tyson could return value even without an AV injury. But obviously, a lav a wide receiver that's dealt with concussions in his NFL career, you can very easily see Jordan Tyson turning into a wide receiver one if a lav were to miss any time.
Now, I want to move over to Carnell Tate. With Carnell Tate, it's a little bit easier to see, which is why I'm ranking Carell Tate ahead of Jordan Tyson. I take Carnell Tate at the end of the fifth. Jordan Tyson goes at the beginning of the sixth. Again, I'm fine taking both players, but Cardell Tate has no competition whatsoever. You look at this depth chart, it's Jell Robinson, who yes, they signed a decent amount of money for, but they really play two completely different positions. It is Calvin Ridley who's looking like he is just complete dust after the injury he suffered. So there's a very easy path for Cardell Tate to see 25 plus percent of this team's target share. We go back and look at the coaching staff, which is the coaching staff that led Malik Neighbors to the nuclear finish that we ended up seeing with Neighbors as a rookie as the wide receiver, 12 in points per game for the second half of his season. And it's not like the New York Giants were a phenomenal offense then either. You had this coaching staff just force-feeding Malik Neighbor's targets. And if we go through and look at the Cardell Tape profile, it's even better than Jordan Tyson's. The closest comps are guys like AJ Brown, Devont Smith, as well as Justin Jefferson. And very similar to what we identified with Tyson, that this is an offense that projects to be a lot better. Last season, they only averaged 16.7 points per game. However, that has jumped up with their projections to almost 20 and a half points per game this year. So, while of course the Tennessee Titans are probably going to be a bad team, they're probably going to be a bad offense. They're going to be better than they were last season, which I think you can see Cardinal Tate return value at the end of the fifth round even without a Titans explosion. But there is an outside chance that Cam Ward really does take a massive year 2 jump.
Now, as we move over to the guy that we are repping his jersey of, Drake London, y'all can remember I drafted London in round two of the Flock League last year. I'd be very happy to do it again this season, but obviously I'm going to be drafting against one of y'all in the Flock League. We currently have a Flock League auditions open. You can head over to flockleague.com and figure out how you get in the league. It's a 12 team league with a $100,000 first place prize. $140,000 prize pool that is sponsored by the 2026 season pass on flockfantasy.com. The best product in fantasy football with all the draft assistance, all the draft guides, all the inseason, weekly, rest of season rankings, trade calculator, team analyzer, the whole nine yards. Only for $34 this year. And if you use code flock, what you're going to get is free questions for me to answer about your team in live streams that we do throughout the season. Of course, make sure you take advantage links in the description and comment section.
Now, moving over to Drake London, the starting point that I want to look at is the fact that he has been incredible over the past few seasons. This is why the Atlanta Falcons just went out of their way and they said, "You know what? Let's give Drake London all the money." London over the past two years has averaged over 16 and a half fantasy points per game. And I do want to remind you, it's not like the Atlanta Falcons have been a great offense during this stretch. The way that he has done this is volume, volume, volume, which is what's going to be the most predictive thing year-over-year for fantasy points at the wide receiver position. He has had a 29% team target share for three seasons of his NFL career. And this past year, he actually had a 30% team target share. If we look at the updated depth chart, yes, you have them taking I guess we can say Zachariah Branch is something, but you lose Darnell Mooney. So, all in all, it's kind of a similar spot to where you were last season and that you have no competition whatsoever if you are Drake London. And I know people are going to say, "Oh, well, the Atlanta Falcons, they're going to be a really bad offense." And I'm going to be honest with you, I don't think Tua or Michael Penn are the best quarterbacks in the world. But we can look at what offense London put these points up in last season and see how it projects out this year. Last year, the Atlanta Falcons average about 20.8 points per game. And now you have the Atlanta Falcons projecting to score slightly over 21. So even though it's going to be a below average offense, London still gave you this production last season and it only looks to get better. And then if we go through and look at just the historical comps for Drake London based on his age 24 season, he was only 24 years old this past year. His best comps are guys like Michael Thomas and Alshon Jeffrey. And then obviously we saw Michael Thomas the following season explode to 19.7 points per game. And honestly similar profiles if we're looking at the amount of targets each wide receiver are able to receive per game. So I absolutely love London. I am completely fine taking him in round two, especially if I started with a running back in round one. Right now in underdog drafts, you are seeing him off the board at about pick 19, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world if you're regular ESPN league, your regular Yahoo League, you actually are able to get them at the very end of round two. And if you could pair him up with like Gibbs, that'd be insane.
Now, let's move this over to another rookie wide receiver with Casey Conception. So, I am going to be 100% honest with you here. Casey Conception has a very limited ceiling. And the reason for this is wide receivers that are in offenses this bad almost never move the needle in fantasy in terms of your ESPN, your Yahoo League where you only start two wide receivers and one flex. However, again, where I'm drafting every single night on the live stream right now at the beginning of June is underdog fantasy where there if you draft a wide receiver five and he turns out to be a wide receiver three, it is an absolute smash hit. And Casey Conception right now is going as the wide receiver 51 in drafts directly behind Romeo Dobs, Matthew Golden, directly ahead of Wandel Robinson, and Jaden Higgins. And I want to remind you, this is an offense that has all the targets in the world available. You have Jerry Judy, who fell flat on his face last season, unable to do anything. You have Denzel Boston, who's just an uninspiring prospect in comparison to Casey Conception. You have Harold Fannon, of course, but Harold Fannon's probably going to be soaking up those David and Jooku vacated targets instead. So again, Casey Conception, very similar to how we went all in on Quinton Johnston last year and went all in on Michael Wilson and they ended up leading to us a $27,000 profit year on underdog fantasy. A great pick in baseball because you can see the appeal for him to turn into a high wide receiver three, low end wide receiver two, but in your ESPN draft, he's a Brown, so it's just going to be tough to take him. I will say the Browns project being the worst offensive environment in the league this year. However, still project for more points than they saw last season.
Now, moving over to our next wide receiver, Aman Ross St. Brown is a round one pick that I cannot stop taking. And the reason for this is, to be honest with you, I think he has a very similar ceiling to what you're going to get with some of the running backs that are going at the end of round one. Some of the running backs like Ashton Genty, some of the running backs like James Cook. But what am St. Brown gives you that maybe those other players don't is he gives you the elite floor. If we just go through and look at St. Brown over the past four seasons, he has been at least a top 10 wide receiver in points per game every single year. If you look at the past three seasons, he's been a top five wide receiver in points per game every season. And if you look at the amount of games that he has played, he has played at least 16 games every single year of his NFL career. So the floor insane and even from like a baseball perspective where obviously there you're caring about him having a crazy high weekly ceiling. I mean last year he had a week with 39 points. He had another week where he scored 41 and a half. He's still stepping into his prime only 26 and a half years old. The historical comps that you have for wide receivers with similar age 26 seasons have been Tyreek Hill, AJ Green, AJ Brown, Jeremy Macklin, DJ Moore, Eric Decker, Golden Tate, Odell Beckham Jr., and Dez Bryant. And the only wide receivers in this list to fall off from age 26 to 27 were Odell and Dez. And ultimately, we're not really worried about a fall-off in a situation that hasn't changed at all and he's still at the peak of his powers.
Now moving over to a player that I think has the chance to see a Drake London level breakout. It is going to be Tedoa McMillan. Now Ted obviously you saw him earlier in the video when we were talking about previous top 10 drafted wide receivers very similar to Drake London there as well. And the big thing that I want to be pointing out is if you go over to the range of outcomes tool on flockfantasy.com, you can play around with this and you can look at historical comps based off um the amount of years that they've been in the NFL or you can look at historical comps based on what you've had with that aged season. So if you're looking at his age 22 season, the best comps that you see for Tedaroa are Keenan Allen, DK Mechaf, Drake London, Percy Harvin, Stefon Diggs, Jeremy Macklin, Michael Crabtree, Jordan Addison, and Kenny Stills. There were only three wide receivers to really not make a massive difference in fantasy the following year. And that was Crabtree, Jordan Addison, as well as Kenny Stills. I want to remind you, Jordan Addison dealt with JJ McCarthy at quarterback, which is why. But another thing you can do with this site, again, you can go ahead and look at who are his best comps from a rookie season perspective. And that list includes DK Mechaf, Cooper Cup, Rashid Rice, T Higgins, Stefon Diggs, CD Lamb, Chase Clayool, Brandon Iayuk. And if we're looking at that list of guys, every single one of them averaged at least 10 fantasy points per game in year two. And every single one of them minus Clayool and Iuk who didn't have the same level draft capital that Tedaroa did averaged at least 14 points per game. So I think the natural trajectory that Tedo McMillan's on where he was a great prospect went top 10 in the NFL draft where he had a very compelling rookie season at a young age and has great historical comps. This is somebody you could see explode to 16 17 points per game the following year. And currently you are actually getting him in round four of drafts. And if we were looking at the exact cost from a wide receiver perspective, he is off the board as wide receiver 17. We go over and look at this depth chart, you have nobody to be concerned with. Jaylen Coker and Xavier Legette are your top competition, which is why I think that you can comp McMillan to Drake London because it's going to be a below average offense, but he can possibly hit a 30% team target share. And the last thing I want to point out is how we expect the Carolina Panthers offense to change from 2025 to 2026. In 2025, they average 18.3 points per game. They do project to score slightly over 20 points this season. So, yes, they're still going to be a bad team, but at least they project to be slightly improved. Obviously, Bryce Young showed some signs of life at the end of last year.
Now, my number one drafted wide receiver so far in drafts where I've taken him in 22 drafts is Quinton Johnston. Now, it is getting to a point where it is tougher for me to take him, right? His price has risen. Again, if you're using the best page on fogg fantasy.com, you can see the average pick that you've taken that player at and their average current ADP. And Quinton Johnson's risen a bunch since we started taking him. My average pick on him was about 98 and a half. Keep in mind I was reaching on him a lot back then and his average ADP now is 92 and a half. So the cost has improved. But I do want to point out that he is still being drafted much cheaper than he was last year. Quinton Johnston's ADP is the wide receiver 42 off the board. Last season in year three of his NFL career, he finishes the wide receiver 26 in points per game. If we go through and we actually look at his age, he is only two months older than Lad Mcconi, who you currently have to take in round four of drafts. And if we pull up the player comparison from fogfantasy.com, you'll put these guys side by side and see that Quinton Johnson was the much better wide receiver last year. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not going to look at Lad Maki, who finishes the wide receiver 37 last season in points per game, and say like, "Oh, Lad's the worst pick in the world in round four." Right? I can't say that because there are a lot of things going for the wide receivers in this offense. One, you look to have no Keenan Allen this year. So, with no Keenan Allen this year, that is going to be leaving a ton of vacated targets for Lad Mankey and Quinton Johnson to both be picking up. The majority of them, however, will probably go to LAD, just knowing where those two wide receivers operate on the football field. But the other thing that's going to benefit this offense greatly is one, the improved coaching staff, and more importantly, the massive improvements to the offensive line. You're getting both your tackles back. The Chargers made additional investments into the offensive line this offseason. And we can see this with the sportsbook data as well where the Chargers averaged 21 and a half points per game last season and currently they project to score over 24 points per game. So yet again, as every offense we've talked about in this video, they project to be improved year-over-year. So recap, Quinton Johnson, 24y old wide receiver that finished the wide receiver 26 last year, has a ton of vacated targets in his offense and his offense projects to get a lot better at the same time. And now you get him as the wide receiver 42. Unlike Casey Conception, this is actually a name that I think you can be excited about both in your best drafts at the moment and then obviously in your future reddraft leagues for that ESPN for that Yahoo shallower format.
But I really appreciate you. I really hope I was able to help you out here. And I want to remind you the Flock League auditions currently are live. $100,000 first place prize for the Flock League this year. Cannot wait. It's all sponsored by the 2026 season pass on flockfantasy.com where you are going to get the biggest edge to win your fantasy football league this year. Not only am I on the site, but a ton of other creators you watch. Get all the draft guides, get all the draft assistants, get all the rankings all year only for $34. The best deal in fantasy football and it's not close. But make sure you use code flock. That way I'm the one answering your free fantasy football questions during the season. But much love. I really appreciate you and hope I get to see you out in the live stream later.