Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video this Friday, October 17, 2025, in front of a completely red crypto market, not pretty. Ouch ouch ouch, it stung yesterday, it continues to sting. Are we surprised? The structure is calmly following its evolution. I spoke about it again in the VIP video on Telegram this morning. I will also talk about it tonight in the YouTube video, don't worry. In terms of the traditional market, it also finished yesterday a little bit in the red, still. We have the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, you see, which were red. We even have futures for now on the American indices which are rather red. So, will Wall Street be red again this afternoon? Well, for now, unfortunately, given the futures, it doesn't smell too much like roses. So, are we surprised? A quick look here at the big liquidation clusters? Well no, remember, yesterday we were in there and so there was a bullish channel. So structurally speaking, it was already bearish. But in addition to that, when you look at this big cluster here which starts around 108,000 and goes down to at least 105,000, perhaps even 106,000. Well, and what do we see here? We see well, the cluster, there are still very, very strong probabilities that it will go eat it. Especially since the big part of the liquidity is here, you see. it starts around 107,400 and goes towards 105,000. So, we should really not be surprised if, in addition to this small bullish channel that we have here which is rather bearish structurally, and in addition to this large pocket of liquidity waiting there, we go to look for 105,000. Now, above, there are still big clusters between 116 and 120. And at some point, it will also go to be eaten. Well, and here, you see, so above, still quite a bit, huh. So you have to be patient and when it has finished eating around 105, there are strong probabilities that it will turn around to go look for around 117-120.
So, right now, there is some not-so-great news. Why did the crypto market and the stock market fall yesterday? Well, while gold and silver are exploding upwards. Unfortunately, we have some bad news coming from the banks and you will understand this. So gold, explosion, new record, a big FOMO has been created on gold. Now, don't worry, everyone is bullish on gold, everyone wants gold, everyone thinks gold will go up high and so it smells like a correction for gold will arrive as usual, the same old tune. Well, and so the problem right now, there is a strong catalyst of liquidity tightening in the financial system. Liquidity tightening means, unfortunately, it weighs on risk assets, on investors' appetite for risk assets, which are cryptos and stocks, which require liquidity to be able to push. Well, so we have a tightening that is divided between two things. It's going to be a bit technical, but I'll explain it in a simplified way. The first, we call it SOFR, which is basically the guaranteed overnight financing rate. So these are overnight borrowings guaranteed by US Treasury securities. So very safe. And we have another thing, it's the effective federal funds rate. Well, so SOFR is borrowing generally done by banks, asset management brokers, money market funds, insurance companies, no problem. And the EFFR, which is the effective federal funds rate, is the weighted average interest rate at which banks lend their excess reserves, which is pegged to federal funds. Well, and this is influenced, well, by the policy of the American central bank, clearly. And what do we have here? We have the difference between SOFR and EFFR. which unfortunately has reached a high that we hadn't seen since, well, it was December 2024. And so this indicates that lenders are demanding higher returns. There you go. And so, who says lenders want higher returns says, well, they lend less. And when it says they lend less, it says there is less liquidity circulating. And if there is less liquidity circulating, well, it means that investors' appetite is decreasing, there is de-risking in the market, and so it's selling, unfortunately. For example, the day before yesterday, Wednesday, banks withdrew $6.75 billion from their standing repo facility. You see, it's the highest level since Corona. So, in short, banks are in "uh oh, let's get some back, let's lend a little less," you see. Well, so these are signs of liquidity tightening, unfortunately, which is not very pretty in the short term for risk assets, and those who see this liquidity tightening, well, they, hop, de-risk from the markets, clearly. That's why we have sales in the crypto market and risky markets. Well, on the other hand, this could relaunch the market soon, and I'll explain why. This second news is here. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, one of the largest banks in the United States, said there are too many cockroaches on the market, you need to get rid of your cockroaches, and if one cockroach is sent, it means there are others. And what are these cockroaches, as he calls them? Well, he's referring to bankruptcies. Well, we already have the bankruptcy of the auto parts supplier, called First Brand, and also the auto lender, called Tricolor Holding. And so, this hurt the bank that lent them money, First Brand, the, sorry, the Jefferies, and the stock fell by 25%. Well, doesn't this remind you of the 2023 crash of some Silicon Valley banks that went bankrupt? Now, I'm not saying it will happen, but well, you get the idea, it's not very pretty on the banking front. So Jefferies, which lost 25%. There are also concerns about two banking groups, Zion Bank Corp and also Western Alliance. They lost between 12% and 10% yesterday. Why? Because they are starting to have payment defaults from some of their borrowers who owe them quite a bit of money, unfortunately. So, faced with this, faced unfortunately with some banks like this whose stocks are falling sharply, it creates a bit of fear in the markets. Some say, "Oh my God, we're going to have a banking crisis, there will be bankruptcies." So why are there payment defaults like this? Is it surprising? No.
So, you have the extreme, which is the subprime crisis in 2008, where you had loans, everyone had loans, you had a documentary that said that in the same family, you had the dad who had three loans, the mom had eight loans, even the dog had three loans. Well, and at some point, when you can no longer repay the loans, there are bank failures, and these can be cascading failures, and they fall. We also had bank failures in Silicon Valley Bank, which I think we had in 2023. Well, there you go, it happens. And why does it happen? Well, there are several reasons. The extreme is when interest rates are very low, and you grant credit left and right, "go ahead, go ahead, borrow," and then interest rates start to rise, but there are those who, when interest rates rise because they have variable rate loans that are pegged to interest rates. And yes, and so when interest rates rise, you are told, "well, before you were repaying $400 a month, now you have to repay $1000 a month." But you can't anymore. Well, boom, there you go, you understand? You've certainly understood, dear. You also have the fact that, well, when interest rates are high, some people take out loans but have difficulty repaying the loan because of the high interest rates, and boom, well, same thing, you see. So both extremes are not good: when interest rates are too low, where there is too much borrowing, and very high interest rates that put a lot of pressure on returns because interest rates are very high, some people cannot repay. So you will see that soon Trump will start to blame Powell if we see banks starting to do worse and worse. They are doing worse and worse. It's Trump who will blame Powell because, because of you, interest rates are high, and individual investors cannot repay, and it will cause credit defaults, unfortunately, you see. Well, and so, faced with this, the S&P 500 is correcting, gold continues to push, Bitcoin, which is pegged to risk assets like the S&P, is also correcting, unfortunately. Well, so we had a traditional banking crisis in 2023 which led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin. On the other hand, we must retain the positive news, which is that after the banking crisis of 2023, we were there, we were right in the middle of it with the USDC depeg. Well, it wasn't very pretty. Well, and I also lost quite a bit of money on that. And so, in short, there was then an easing campaign by the central bank, which supported all of this a bit, which injected a lot of money because they also have special funds for this, if you want, for bank failures. There were also buybacks by other banks, and so, bank failure, Bitcoin crash, well, general crash, but then there was injection, support, and boom. And after that, Bitcoin took off very, very strongly. Well, it should be known that despite these little not-so-pretty things in the banks, there are some pretty nice things happening. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond have fallen to their lowest level since the day of Trump's release. Remember the day of the release arrived with all its big sign. It arrived very quietly, as much as possible. And we also have the yield on the 2-year Treasury falling to a level we hadn't seen in 3 years. And so, when yields fall very sharply in the bond market, it's good news because if yields become too low in the bond market, investors will want to seek returns elsewhere, and the appetite for risk will return. They will return to risk markets, which are the stock market and the crypto market, quite simply. So, in short, what are we saying here to summarize? Okay. Crypto is correcting, the stock market is correcting, it's not pretty, but behind the scenes, it's starting to become something that in the medium to long term will be good, you see. So, what am I doing? Well, I continue to accumulate my little satoshis, my little Bitcoins quietly because I know that in the medium to long term, in a few months, it will be rather good.
Well, right now, everyone is talking about gold. Gold is amazing, gold to the moon, gold is great. Gold exceeded $30 trillion yesterday. It's starting to make a lot of money. New historical high of $4357 per ounce of gold yesterday. So gold is capitalized 14.5 times more than Bitcoin. There you go, it's 14.5 times bigger than Bitcoin. It's 1.5 times bigger than all the Magnificent 7 combined. So you take Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla. you take the entire capitalization of these seven largest companies in the world, and gold is 1.5 times bigger. So gold is big, it has gained 64% since January 1st. That's huge, you see. So why? Well, there are several reasons. Initially, gold pushed because of the dollar's performance. The dollar is at a very low level that we hadn't seen in over 50 years. The dollar is not doing well. Geopolitical tensions with everything that is happening everywhere. Tariff-related tensions. Well, it all goes together a bit. Faced with this, the dollar pushes. But we have a big FOMO. Seeing the dollar, gold explode, sorry, and well, people say, "My God, gold is exploding fast, I have to buy gold." And so this little FOMO. So if you want, gold has a little bull run, and after a big violent and parabolic rise, what happens? A violent and parabolic correction. The faster and harder you push, well, the faster and harder you will correct too. That's why we have bear markets. We have bear markets because there are bull runs. We have bear markets because there are crazy, super high, very strong, very fast rises, and so the correction follows. But if you don't have crazy rises, you don't have a crazy bear market either. And since Bitcoin hasn't had a parabolic rise, it hasn't had an explosive bull run, oh my God. Yes, it had a bull run, it went from $15,000 to $125,000, but it did so with a lot of time and big corrections. It wasn't a boom, a big parabolic ascent, you see, a big exploding parabola. So the bear market, if it were to happen, would also be a bit weak. You see, it's normal, if you don't push very high and very fast, you won't correct very low and very fast. Then you'll tell me, "But if Foufi, look at my altcoins." Well, altcoins are up 80%, that's something else. The market is no longer like before. You can no longer say all cryptos are together. There is Bitcoin on one side and the rest on the other, clearly. Well, and so we have quite a few analysts who estimate that Bitcoin will soon push when gold corrects. That's what I think too. Why? Because we know that for so many years, Bitcoin has been highly correlated with M2 money supply. It's logical, when the money supply rises, when a lot of money and liquidity comes in, well, it's injected into risk markets, whether they are crypto or stocks. And in addition to that, gold and Bitcoin are quite correlated. And we have seen in the past that when gold explodes, Bitcoin catches up. And so here, there are divergences. Where gold is exploding, Bitcoin is correcting, and even the M2 money supply in blue, it continues to push gold too, but not Bitcoin, you see. So, we have a small divergence, and there are strong probabilities that Bitcoin will catch up. In any case, in the past, it was like that. We don't see why it would have changed. So I personally think you just have to be patient, quietly. I'm accumulating my little satoshis quietly because I know that at some point Bitcoin will catch up to gold and the money supply, and I'm not too worried about that.
Well, ah, on the other hand, unfortunately, well, the altcoins that have fallen 80% well, that's something else. That's really something else. Here I'm only talking about Bitcoin. Unfortunately, altcoins, we are on a completely separate cycle, and well, you shouldn't have been on altcoins. Clearly, it's a sad reality, but that's how it is. Well, we'll talk about it tonight in the Analyst video. I send you kisses. Have a good day, see you tonight. Bye bye. [Music]