Transcription
Trump wants it to be much better, to the extent that he accepts almost everything, threatening Israel and whatever else. When Israel violated [the agreement] by attacking Beirut, Trump immediately came out because he was afraid Iran would retaliate, saying, "Don't mess things up," meaning to show that he is a leader of peace-making. So, he stammered and stuttered to just get it over with. If Israel attacks Lebanon, will Iran stay silent? But if Iran attacks Israel, will the US consider it a breach of agreement? There might be a secret agreement between the US and Israel, to get through this period first, then later attack Iran again. This is very difficult for us to guess [their intentions] during this period.
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Biso Tha, hello, Professor.
>> Hello, hello.
Professor Lieutenant General Dr. Somchai Warunhaphol. Today we come to discuss a delightful matter, which is what is called the peace agreement or MOU that Donald Trump signed in front of many witnesses at the G7, Versailles Palace. And there was an announcement made worldwide about what the information was, what the conditions were. And Professor, you will have to analyze today what Iran gained, what the United States gained, and what our world gained. Professor, please proceed.
>> Uh, all of it is summarized into 14 points, uh-huh, which is nothing much, mainly it says this is a ceasefire agreement, saying it's to permanently end the fighting, so to speak. But it's not really, I must say it's temporary because it lasts 60 days. Uh, from now on, or signed, mainly that's how it is. And there was an agreement that the US would withdraw forces for 30 days, and Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz for free passage for 60 days. This means after 60 days, what will Iran do? That's another matter. This is also an issue for us. Regarding finances, it seems the US will concede, but when I look at the wording, it's not, because it will depend on Iran's behavior after this period in the negotiations. How much will they agree to concede? If the behavior isn't good, they won't give money, so to speak. So, how will it be? And mainly, uh, the US will say it will lift the sanctions or ease the sanctions, including allowing a waiver on oil sanctions for Iran to sell for 60 days. So, that's that. Uh, what else is there, Khun Thanee? Is there anything else? I'll look at the main points.
>> Actually, the matter is...
The story that the Professor just spoke about is the main core, right? But there will be many sub-points, right, that I'd like the Professor to help analyze, which is that when signing this MOU, the Professor must look at it from a slightly behind-the-scenes perspective, that...
>> Hmm.
After hitting a wall, Professor. I understand the 14 conditions, but let's try to look into his mind a bit, why he changed his attitude towards Iran so quickly. Before, he would curse them out, oh, so harshly.
>> Now he praises them, "the leader is very capable, Iran is someone we can talk to, no problem."
So it has become that maximum pressure turned into maximum appeasement. Why is that, Professor? What's the background behind it?
>> But don't forget, he also added a threat, saying that if he's not pleased, he'll go bomb their heads, right? He still added that.
>> Hmm [clears throat]. How much we can believe is another matter.
But the point is, I think Trump wants it to be good, to the extent that, uh, he accepts almost everything, threatening Israel and whatever else. When Israel violated [the agreement] by attacking, uh, Beirut, Trump immediately came out because he was afraid Iran would retaliate, saying, "Hey, don't mess things up, don't mess things up." So, no one has died yet, so to speak, and he asked them to stop. But in reality, uh, one leader, a high-ranking commander of Hezbollah, was assassinated.
>> Hmm.
But, but Trump tried to say, "Hey, not too much, not too much, don't, don't, don't mess things up." It clearly shows that he stammered and stuttered, wanting...
>> Why have a deal? This deal, because 1, the US oil reserves are already in a bad state.
>> Right. 2, inflation is rising. 3, internal political pressure, the people disagree. And there's an agenda, the National Day that will happen on July 4th, and
>> the midterm elections.
And these things, Trump wants to create an image.
>> That is, to show that he is a leader of peace-making.
This is the main goal. So he stammered [clears throat] and stuttered to just get it over with, get it done. Because actually, this deal today has nothing much, just a temporary ceasefire agreement, right? And what Iran gained is that they might get money, maybe.
>> Hmm.
Because there was talk about that, uh, 300 billion [dollars], and Trump, or rather, the White House, denied it, saying it's not US money, because people cursed, saying, "How can you use tax money to pay for it?"
As for where it will come from, that's another matter. I understand that this might be money contributed by a group of countries
>> in the Gulf [clears throat],
to be like a compensation for Iran, so they can also build friendships. Because now those [countries] have seen that they cannot rely on the US.
>> So,
they have to be friends with Iran first.
>> Hmm.
And there are many rumors that there were negotiations to give money, whether from Qatar or UAE,
>> Hmm.
to ask Iran not to attack. It became like an acceptance, but these [countries] agreed because they wanted peace. And regarding the 300 billion [dollars] contribution, I believe, I believe they probably did contribute.
>> Hmm.
Because, uh, they already know that in the end, they want it to end, otherwise they themselves would also suffer. Yes, that's the point. So, what I want to conclude is that Trump wants it very much, so Iran has high bargaining power. But this is temporary. I view this as a temporary agreement. Uh, the variable that might be interpreted during this time is Israel. Because Israel announced it does not accept [the agreement] and claims the right to occupy Lebanese territory. It's called speaking shamelessly, "their territory, we will seize it."
>> Hmm, uh-huh.
In the south, and, uh, they don't accept this agreement because they are not involved. Now, if Israel attacks Lebanon, the question is, what will Iran do? Will Iran stay silent?
>> Hmm.
If Iran stays silent, then its allies will be in trouble, Hezbollah will be in trouble, right? But if Iran attacks Israel, will the US consider it a breach of, uh, the agreement?
>> Hmm.
This is still not clear because, uh, they clearly announced that they are not involved, not involved in the agreement. But the US, in the contract, in this agreement, says it will stop all fighting on all fronts. Does this amount to tying Iran's hands? This is an issue where Iran might be at a disadvantage in this regard.
>> Yes.
Now, Israel might use a method: if they attack heavily, Trump might come out to complain, prohibit, or deal with Israel, whatever. Or, if left alone, Israel might use the method of, uh, uh, slowly encroaching, attacking
>> a little bit, a little bit, slowly moving in, what they call "salami slicing," meaning cutting into small pieces, slowly doing it until Iran can't stand it anymore. Iran might threaten at first, use words, but later can't stand it. If Iran attacks, will that be the spark that causes this [agreement] to fall, to fall apart? This is still not, there is no clarity on this matter, which is a point of concern. But what Trump wants, I want to say that Trump wants it to be peaceful now until the midterm elections. After that, it's another story.
But will it be able to go that far? Because Israel is also in considerable pain. But as mentioned, Israel might use the method of slowly proceeding.
However, I believe there might be a secret agreement between the US and Israel. It's not just coming out and cursing. Get through this first, then later attack Iran again. This is very difficult for us to guess [their intentions] during this period. However, Trump has also learned a lesson, and I still think he might not do that, because he learned a lesson from getting deeply involved by following Israel, who said, "Hey, it'll be over in 2 weeks," but it turned out to be 100 days and it's not over yet. And at this point, he might not want to fall into the trap of war. That's also a possibility from another perspective. However, what Trump promised Israel might just be a temporary feint. When the time comes, Trump might not go through with it, and Israel probably won't be able to do anything once the time passes until the point of the midterm elections.
>> It has many impacts, Professor. It affects the world and affects the US economy a lot. Oil is now 73 dollars, and people predict that sooner or later, it will be around 60, uh-huh. Which is the point Trump wants, which is 60 dollars per barrel, it will make the US economy recover significantly. Most recently, Professor, you probably know that the US stock market fell sharply.
>> Very heavily.
We have, we have discussed before that there are many factors, a perfect storm.
>> Ah, yes, yes.
The oil price right now, even though it has fallen, domestic oil, for example, in the US, is currently around 4 dollars per gallon.
>> Expensive, sir, still expensive.
It's still expensive, and importantly, oil reserves are running low. Even if they open up, open the strait,
>> oil production cannot be done immediately, increased immediately.
It takes time. So, these crises here are severe, even though...
>> Yes, Trump will create an image that, "Oh, it's peaceful now," even so.
Don't forget that when Trump threatens to bomb heads, oil will go up another dollar, another dollar. [Laughter] Oh wow, say one word and oil goes up, say another word and oil goes down, Professor. Our world is that simple, it follows very quickly.
In reality, but I also see that his influence and credibility might have greatly diminished. The market itself doesn't respond much. Sometimes Trump says, uh, one thing, thinking oil will go up, but it turns out oil doesn't go up, it goes down.
>> Or, or he expects oil to go down, but it goes up, something like that.
But this time, when he said he would bomb if he's not satisfied, the matter isn't over yet.
>> Hmm.
If, if the second round of negotiations is not satisfactory, he might go bomb, and it went up another dollar.
>> Yes.
Which I think is a matter...
>> Hmm.
It's a matter of what, not seeming to fall, right?
Psychology, it's startled, startled, Professor, they call it startled.
>> Startled [laughter] startled.
A little bit, a little bit, it's an impact. But what really has a big impact is actually the issue of the Fed, Professor. Right now, what's causing the stock market to fall sharply and making everyone uncertain is whether interest rates will remain as they are. There's a very high chance of interest rate hikes, 88% chance of interest rates going up. Why? Because 1, that issue of non-farm employment, right, it increased.
>> Hmm.
When it increases, it's a reason why you can't lower interest rates. Otherwise, inflation will surge even more.
>> The chance that interest rates won't hold means they have to go up.
>> Hmm.
This is the point where they are good. This is one factor that caused the stock market to fall because they expect interest rates to rise.
>> Yes.
So the stock market fell. This is one thing, besides the failure of, uh, AI stocks, whose performance wasn't very good. And it will show many results that were promised but didn't turn out that way. That's another part. [Music]
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