Transcription
Gold has just broken a new record. Then a big drop, the money followed and the miners were shaken. So, is this a movement or just a new beginning? [Music] Hello friends, welcome to matière à profit, the channel for all profits. So, what happened to gold and silver this week? Gold had surpassed $4000 an ounce then a violent retracement, it was minus 6% in a session, mind you. And on silver, it was even more violent, huh, 8% drop. So, why this drop? Simply profit-taking after vertical movements. Of course, a vertical rise generates violent drops. It's often and I would even say always like that. There are central bank expectations as well as automatic liquidations on derivatives markets. That too, we must put people in front of it. And in these cases, there is often an imbalance. And imbalance, there was. So, be careful, we remain, we will go see right away on the GDX chart, which for me is the most important, more than gold and silver, since we invest first and foremost, especially in miners. So for us, the GDX is an important chart to look at. You see that there, as I tell you, we had a very, very powerful upward movement and then at this high point, we decided to drop. Big drop with a gap here. This drop here was the first earthquake on October 17th. So on this date, October 17th, we had a very, very strong drop and then a small technical recovery and a monumental gap. You see this kind of gap, it's very, very bearish. It could have been a bullish gap, but no, it's a bearish gap. And so you see that on the GDX, you see very few gaps and generally they are filled. It was here, you see that the gap we had opened on September 19th, well you see that on September 24th it was filled. And so on. You see that here, for example, there was a gap, it all depends on how you look at gaps, since if you don't count the wick, it hadn't been filled, well it was still filled precisely during this drop on October 17th. So globally, you see that there is a gap here that is not filled. You see that we had a very bullish upward channel here, and this channel was broken here, broken, weakened. We had an attempt to return to this upward channel the next day, but in vain. The day after, Thursday, October 23rd, we had the possibility to brush against the bottom of this channel without re-entering it. And then on Friday, we have a candle that completely detaches from the channel. That is to say, it no longer has a foot, it no longer has a wick, its body is not in this channel, and that is worrying. So, worrying, it doesn't mean we're going to have a black path with very significant drops, but in any case, it's a sign of concern for people who do graphical analysis like me. Let's go look at gold. The gold chart is less worrying since we did not have the necessary power to re-enter this upward channel. I'm going to zoom out a bit. You see that we have an upward channel here with a dizzying rise, and so obviously in this configuration, profit-taking is normal. Well, normal until perhaps this upward channel is broken. So that prices re-enter the upward channel. Now, if we re-entered the upward channel, there would be nothing dramatic either, since it is an upward channel as its name indicates. In any case, we would of course prefer to see these prices evolve above this upward channel. Because if we broke this other channel, we could try to come back and touch the bottom of the channel. And between the top of the upward channel and the bottom of the upward channel. You see that the top currently is a little over $4000 an ounce, and the bottom of the upward channel, with the timing, we could imagine that we would come back to touch $3600 an ounce. So that's quite a lot of money, friends, that we wouldn't want to lose if it retraced that far. But if we came back, even just to $3800-$3600 an ounce, it would not call into question the upward movement of gold. And that, you must understand. Now, on silver, on silver, we have, as with gold, I didn't tell you but you saw it, a crossing of the 2-day and 12-day moving averages, and this crossing is rather a sign of fatigue, a sign of weakness for gold and silver. It has therefore crossed. If we made a small channel like we have for gold, we will make a small parallel channel. Well, on a parallel channel for silver, we are still in this channel. So, no more worry than that, and it's much more interesting for silver because since we are at the bottom of the channel, a rebound could occur to try to touch this top of the channel. For now, well, we are far from it, and on the other hand, the last three candles show us that it is indeed weak, but there is also no reason to panic, since we are on matière à profit, friends. So we observe, the only thing that could be really worrying for silver is actually breaking this bottom of the channel downwards. And then, obviously, that would not be good at all. And then, if we broke this bottom of the channel, we could come back to $41-$42. And then that would call into question, in fact, the entire rise that we have just experienced, this very important rise that we have just experienced on silver. So it could have the effect of a cold shower for all those who adored this metal. On copper, on copper, we broke this white trend that I drew for you, it was all these small highs we had here from October 15th to October 21st. On October 23rd, it was slightly broken. And then on October 24th, Friday, October 24th, well, we have a candle that is well above this white trend. We would need to see another candle that detaches from this white trend to have strong convictions on copper. In any case, we see clearly that copper, it is bullish with its 2-day and 12-day moving average, it is not at all in the same configuration as gold and silver. At the same time, let's look at Brent. Brent must be looked at when we deal with miners, because the more expensive Brent is, the smaller the margins are for miners. This is often the case. We know that now we have many mines like Mineros and others that use solar, wind energy, and river energy through hydropower. And so, in any case, most miners need oil. And here, you see that, unlike gold and silver, we have a small buy signal here on October 22nd, and then on October 23rd, we had a very strong rise again. On Friday, we settled on Brent with a small drop of 0.41%. So that's a bit of the landscape concerning miners. So be careful, we are very high. This is a consolidation, for now, it's not a trend reversal. So, let's go and see the miners we have in our portfolio. And we'll start with Mineros, one of our best miners, friends. Mineros, which had become bearish. And you see that on the 2-day and 12-day moving average, we are on the verge of becoming bullish. So we are keeping our Mineros position, which, as a reminder, is a stock that pays a nice dividend and has interesting AISC costs. It's among our favorites. So it's a miner that will remain in our portfolio, and we will follow all the publications that Mineros will inform us of in the near future. We also have Pan American Silver, which has become bearish. So it's the same, you'll always have to monitor. In any case, that's what I monitor, it's especially Laurent Morel who does an analysis concerning our miners. Moreover, I advise all of you to go pro on this subject. We have a small subscription that will allow you to know more, because you see that it's a very complicated market, so it's better to have a specialist to inform us, and I wouldn't say advise, because after all, the decision to buy a stock or not is yours. What we look at is whether production is in line with expectations. Are costs tending to rise or stabilize? You see, earlier we were talking about the rise in oil prices. That said, it's a small rise compared to the big drop that oil has suffered. But in any case, these are things to watch. And above all, what Laurent Morel watches, well, when he talks to us about reserves, we listen attentively, and especially, what are the new projects? So that's all we look at in miners. In any case, on Pan American Silver, we are already, we will go and see the summary tables of the four miners we have left in our portfolio, because we had lightened up, friends, following what happened recently. For now, on Pan American Silver, I prefer to reinforce only on a pullback. For now, we are really on a small pullback. If there were a bigger pullback, then we could certainly buy this stock again. Concerning Aya Gold, it has also become bearish, we see it there. 2-day and 12-day moving average bearish. So you see that for now we are not rushing to buy just because it has fallen, it can fall further. So, like Pan American Silver, on Aya Gold, we observe, we are already well positioned on the stock. In any case, it's a stock that has very, very good prospects. On Equico Eagle Mines, it's also bearish. So on Equico Eagle Mines, again, one of our favorite mines, it's solid, it's a big mine that we like to have in the core of our portfolio. So this mine, this miner is rather the best, I would say, among all, since it has the lowest extraction costs among all. So a very, very good company, and that's why we like to keep it in the core of our portfolio. That said, what are we waiting for? We are still waiting for stable production volumes, controlled costs. It's always the same. What we like is not to have bad surprises. And so, we are always listening to all the figures, all the speeches of the executives of this mine so as not to have bad surprises. And then, as with the previous miners, we look at the costs, of course, the price of metals, because if the metals started to fall sharply, obviously the margins of these miners would melt away accordingly. So why did we sell, for example, Rio2 and other miners, and then buy Equico Mines instead? Simply because it is much less volatile, for example, than Pan American Silver. But that said, it remains very correlated to the price of gold. So we like that because we want to be correlated to this asset. The last one is Midnight Sun Corporation. That's a good project, friends. For now, the 2-day and 12-day moving average, as you can see, is bearish, even though we have upward potential there, but globally we will wait. We bought at 106 for the pros. Those who have taken the pro subscription, you know that if you take the pro or premium subscription, you will have the advantage of having all my purchases, all my sales. Every time I buy something, every time I sell something, you will be notified in real time. And that's worth its weight in gold. The same when Laurent Morel, our financial analyst concerning the mining sector, wanted to express himself and say, be careful with this or be careful with that, or attention, there have been very good results, blah blah blah, well, that's on our Discord, friends. So go premium, go pro, especially if you are interested in the mining sector. So a purchase at 0.6, and then for the premium, a purchase at 1.46. Today, we are at 1.29, and we feel that it's well on its way to crossing. In terms of the 2-day and 12-day moving average, be careful, friends, we do not make projections of crossings. We wait for it to cross. We wait for a candle to detach from this configuration. We don't play Madame Irma, we wait for the crossing. Globally, once again, I would like to remind you that on Mineros, which is one of our favorites as a miner, we feel that currently it is a miner that is working a lot on its financial structure in order to develop. This has advantages and disadvantages. If we kept Mineros as it is, simply extracting gold from a river endlessly, since there is gold, there is always gold to extract for life, since they have a lifetime concession, then it would simply be considering Mineros as a bond, as if we were investing in gold-indexed bonds. So it would be, let's say, a more golden bond. Now, they have hired a new CFO, and apparently what he is looking for is to refinance in order to grow, to buy additional operations and then exploit them, produce gold, more and more gold, etc., but with investments. So in an investment period, as always, it weighs on the results in the first instance. So, to do things right, we must follow step by step what they are preparing for us in terms of equity issuance, what they will tell us during their investor meetings, etc., etc. In any case, in the long term, it is certainly a superb project. That's it, friends, concerning the graphical analysis of miners. Let's now look at the mine portfolio. And you see that on the mine portfolio today, we have 29.12% in cash. Simply because we have lightened up following the chart I just showed you, necessarily with the drop, we took profits simply to protect our scoring, since we had more than 110, we were even over 111% gain at one point since the beginning of the year. It is still relatively rare for a portfolio to appreciate that much. And so, afterwards, you don't want to spoil everything, when you are there as a manager, you are there to manage risk and to reduce drawdowns when there are any. So globally, we have remained on the miners that I presented to you graphically: Mineros, Pan American Silver, Anico Eagle Mines, which is practically considered as cash, and then we have M, no, 4%, 4.10%. This is our, let's say, poker chip, since we are in a mine that is much riskier than the others, even extremely riskier than the previous three. But, we are looking for results, and to do so, if Midnight Sun Mining Corporation announced excellent results in terms of exploration, since it explores, then we could see this stock easily double, triple, or even multiply by 4 or 5. So, we are also looking for that, it's speculative, since investing in the mining sector has a large speculative component, I must remind you. However, despite the drawdown we had on gold and silver on the miners, we still have a result of 93.40%, which is still very good overall. And so, we wish to preserve this result. That's why we have 29.12% in cash. However, this cash is ready, it is well kept, ready to be reinvested in either existing miners or to return to miners on which we had recently taken profits at more attractive prices. Friends, this is also swing trading. On these good words, friends, I will leave you now. Don't forget to go pro, since you are on the miners channel. Don't forget to go premium for those who want to test a bit what we do before going pro perhaps. In any case, in the meantime, be very careful, take care, and see you soon. [Music] [Music] [Music] M.