Transcription
So today we had sequential SMT making the high of the day, right? Which usually happens, you know, sequential SMT is usually the cause of like major reversal points, right? This is the NASDAQ. I'm pretty sure everyone can see my mouse right now. This is the NASDAQ, this is the S&P 500, and this is Dow Jones. As you guys can see, the NASDAQ fell way more than Dow, and the same thing occurred within the price section of the S&P 500, right?
I believe that I've mentioned this before, but whenever you see sequential SMT, right, you want to pay more attention to the assets which fail to break above the high, right? You don't, you don't want to pay much attention to this one because these will fall more. This will always happen. So if you see sequential SMT, sequential SMT, right, um, say tomorrow or which or Thursday, between Thursday this week and and Wednesday, right, then you would want to trade the weaker asset class, which would be these, right? These, this asset failed to break above New York's high, it's weak. This one failed to break above New York's high, it's weak. This one broke above New York's high, then this is showing you strength, right? This will fall, right, but it won't fall like these ones, right?
And let me put some lipstick on. So remember, I taught you guys about the revolving true open, which is this open right here on this candle, right? We had price trade up into it and failed to break above this high. Amazing. I showed you guys this, like, I've shown you guys this is like the third or fourth example, I believe. And, you know, I've just been talking about this for like less than a week now, I believe, right? So, yeah, we have this one break above it, traded above the revolving true open, failed to break above this high. This one traded above it and broke above the high at the same time. So like, what would like be the, you know, your tipping point? What would like tell you that, okay, now I should be entering? Now I should be looking for a trade? What, what would that be? What would like, you know, tell you that, okay, price should not go above this high and if it goes above this high, then I'm just wrong, you know, I'm stopped out. You know, you got to be using risk management, right? Nothing is perfect. But this, like, what you're seeing right now on the screen, it, like, this is right. Like I don't want to, like, you know, gas it too much, but like, I'd say over 75% of the times, right? This setup, this, like, this what I'm showing you right now, this isn't even, you know, the full setup. This is just like the framework. This is just, you know, the piece of, you know, time that you apply to, you know, other setups to make them stronger.
So you can see that over this right here, this side of time, you know, before 12:00 PM, this is the New York session, right? And this is the afternoon session. So remember, New York or Q3 must, it must form a swing high or a high, right? And then break down going into Q4, right? Following Q4 must trade above the revolving true open, which is the difference or the opening price of Q4, right? So price goes above it, fails to break above this high. I'm just saying this again, you know, I need you guys to understand. Price goes above this one, fails to break above this high. But here we have SMT where price breaks above this high while going above the revolving true open. So say price is here right now, right? You're like, literally here, and this has not formed yet, right? Here you would be looking over here to see if price is above this high. Whenever price breaks above this high and it's revolving through open, right? You got to see if price is above this. Is it no? Is it no? And I, this would be the candle if you're, if we're going to talk about this one, right? 1305 and this is 1305. So right here, you could go short here with your stop above this high, not expecting it to go above it, right? And I remember afterwards, price was around here. I tweeted it. I tweeted my bad, I posted this in the group, right? And then afterwards, what happened? It broke lower, came back into this fair value gap, then up to now, it's been going lower, right? So this is actually, it's crazy, right? The right, the SMT between Q3 and Q4.
Another thing, and another thing that you would like be looking for is you would like to see Q3 expand, right? As it should do. You know, you want to see Q3 expand, you or form a larger range than what, you know, Q1 or Q2 did in the day. So we had Q3 expand and this before Q4, this was the larger range, right? So Q1 and Q2 was formed a smaller range than this, and this overextended after this. If you see Q3 form a larger range than Q2 and Q1, you can expect Q4 to form a larger range than Q3. And whenever I gave you guys, you know, the actual model, you know, it will have like which time frame to use, which cycles, you know, stuff like that. Don't worry, you'll get that whenever we move to the next group, which should be, which is going to be this week, I'm pretty sure.
So here again, you can see the sequential SMT between, right, which forms within the second half of Q3 and within the first half of Q4, right? Write that down. It's important. Some of you will like not pay attention to that, but everything I say is important, right? So now when we look at the, we're going, we look at the higher time frame, you can see how badly the NASDAQ fell. S&P 500, right? S&P 500 took out this low. NASDAQ took out this low, which would be a shift on market structure, right? If we're actually looking at price properly, and fail to take this one out, right? Tomorrow we have CPI, and you can, by just looking at price, you can see that this seems to be farther than this high than this is, right? So this is seems to be stronger than these two, which is actually the case. So if tomorrow we have price take this out and, you know, fail to take this high out and fail to take this high out, that would be a shift again, right? But another one, which I will introduce. Are you following? So tomorrow, we want to see what happens at 8:30. Will price even get to here? Will price just drop? Right? We just need a third to pass and and then we, whenever we see an imbalance, then we, we, we just take a shot.
So here, this high was taken out. This high was taken out. Also, this high was taken out here. But here we had SMT which caused price default. Looking at the higher time frames, we have lows here which would be a draw on liquidity. We have lows here as well. I did identify these lows, you know, before price trailed LEL this high, which I expected it to go below this low, but, you know, happens. You're wrong sometimes. So if this candle closes, you know, forms a gap here, then we could expect price to trade within this candle and continue below here, right? Here, right? We have a lovely swing high being formed. We have lovely relatively equal lows below these lows. We have this SMT here as well. Look at the daily time frame. Not much to see here, right? But CPI will give us a, you know, a clearer view of price. Usually, whenever we have like, you know, Q1 drop like this, and we usually have price, we usually have price return to the F about just straight above 50% of the range, which would be like around here, you know, trade above 50% of the range and then continue to fall. So, yeah, so so far, yeah, I am like, I'm not expecting, you know, this to just be going up forever. You know, we, we need the, we need SMT, right? To initiate, you know, the downtrend that I'm looking for. As you guys can see, right? Even though, you know, I remember right here, I wanted to see price lower, right? And and I don't mean just like barely go low, I mean like actually taking out, you know, lows like this. But, you know, it went higher. But that's just what trading is, right? You're not going to get everything correct, right? I was right for like, I was right for, you know, the first couple weeks and then got last week wrong, which is okay. You know, I don't feel anyway at all. That's just, you know, how it is. Don't win all of my trades, you know, no one does. Even if you're really good, you're going to lose at least like 15, 10% of the time.
So sequential SMT between Q3 and Q4, you know, the that is that will be the base of the model that you will be learning, right? And it will have, you know, specific time frames for specific cycles. And as long as you follow the rules, you know, you should, you know, be able to find setups. A lot of you will be posting, and I'm pretty sure afterwards, you know, trades and so on, as many if you have already been doing so. But like, some of you need me to actually tell you exactly what to look for. But some of you can make your own models already, which is good. But everyone's different, you know, everyone picks up information at a different speed. So will be that, you know, getting into, you know, better things than this, of course. But this is actually already like, how much times have you seen this fail? How much times, right? And I'm, and I'm being specific when I talk about that. So I'm like using the New York session, the afternoon session, using Wednesday and Thursday. How much times have you seen that fail, right? You're not a lot, I'm pretty sure. You know, I'm pretty sure.
So yeah, that's it for today, and we'll be back Wednesday, right? Tomorrow, if we, you know, if there's a clear action, then I'll obviously be posting in the group. That being said, have a wonderful afternoon. Continuing.