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The US Lost the Iran War (But Not How You Think)

Cyrus Janssen18:59

Transcription

The United States launched a war against Iran 44 days ago. And while Donald Trump and the United States government is claiming a victory in the Middle East, we have to understand the simple reality of the situation. Iran is in a much stronger position today than at the start of the war. And for many decades to come, historians will look back to this conflict as a turning point in geopolitics.

Because on paper, Iran should have never been able to compete with the United States. The US military is bigger, stronger, and more advanced. But Iran has proved that in today's age of modern warfare, bigger is not always better. Donald Trump likes to state that Iran doesn't hold any cards. When in fact, they are holding a straight, the Strait of Hormuz, which has proven to be a checkpoint for the entire global economy.

In today's video, we're going to analyze what happened during this 44-day conflict, discuss the real reason Trump started a new war, and most importantly, answer the question, where do we go from here? But make sure you watch to the end of today's video as I have an amazing sponsor that is directly tied to everything I'm discussing. And what's even more incredible is that I personally flew to Canada to do a site visit at one of the hottest new potential drilling sites that is discovering one of the world's most important resources. You're definitely going to want to see this.

But first, let's establish a baseline and look at the 10 new realities that have unfolded as a result of this war.

Number one, there was no regime change in Iran as Trump managed to replace the 86-year-old supreme leader with his 56-year-old son.

Number two, the United States reclaimed exactly 0 kg of Iran's enriched uranium. Now, Trump was able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but let's not forget that before the start of this war, the strait was open to the entire world at a cost of exactly $0. Now, under Iranian control, countries must pay a new toll of $2 million per ship.

Trump has claimed the US government was able to completely destroy Iran's military, but yet Iran was able to take down America's most advanced fighter jets, which is actually quite remarkable for a group of people that supposedly belong to the Stone Age. All 13 US military bases in the Middle East have now been destroyed to the point where the majority of them are unlivable. And as the New York Times reported, US soldiers had to be relocated to hotel rooms for accommodation.

Trump managed to break up NATO as America's closest allies in Europe did not send their militaries and refused to support America's new war in the Middle East. Trump did manage to get the Iranian citizens back in the streets of Tehran protesting, but this time they were protesting in support of their government. Trump openly admitted the US government armed the Kurds to go into Iran and stir trouble, but the Kurds refused to do so and simply kept the new weapons they were gifted by the US president.

Trump managed to raise the cost of living for all Americans with skyrocketing gas prices and inflation. And finally, Trump was able to spend $30 billion on a new war that hasn't achieved a single US military objective, but instead inflicted more chaos for the entire world.

To sum up everything we've learned over the last 44 days, just listen to this hard-hitting report from Sky News.

"He says that we have been completely successful diplomatically on all fronts. Well, if we look at all the things that the president has said over the last few weeks about what America's aims are, and they keep changing, but if we put them all together, the fact is not one of those aims has been unambiguously achieved. And some of them are in a worse state now than they were before he started. So he can claim victory as much as he likes, but the rest of the world and quite a lot of people in America probably won't agree with that as they consider the implications in the days and weeks ahead."

On paper, it looks like a strategic error for the United States. And many of us are wondering why on earth did Trump do this? To help answer this question, look at this report from the New York Times entitled "How Trump Took the US to War in Iran." This is by far the best account you can read to understand the truth.

And it all started on February 11th when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a visit to Washington D.C. Netanyahu has been pressuring the US government for over 30 years to attack Iran. And when he met with Trump and his team of advisers in the White House, Trump escorted Netanyahu away from the press room and directly into the White House's Situation Room, a high-security 24/7 intelligence complex.

Now, it is very unusual for a foreign leader to be hosted in the Situation Room as this is typically reserved exclusively for the US president and his team of advisers to make critical national security decisions. But yet, somehow Netanyahu received the VIP treatment and sat at the head of the table giving a 1-hour presentation selling the idea that the United States should join Israel and launch a formal war against Iran.

Netanyahu gave Trump three predictions that immediately instilled confidence in the US president. He said Iran's missile capacity could be destroyed in a few weeks and that the regime would be so weakened that it could never choke off the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu also reassured Trump the likelihood that Iran would land blows against US military bases and allies in the region was essentially zero.

On paper, it seemed like a no-brainer. The US could launch a regime change against Iran and suffer very little, if any, repercussions as a result. And once again, Trump started to believe a lie that has been proven false so many times in our nation's history: that by bombing a new country, we could successfully launch a regime change. From Cuba to Vietnam, Iraq to Afghanistan, and Libya, the US government has a horrible track record of launching regime changes. But Trump began to believe that this time would be different.

Trump took the bait directly from Netanyahu and immediately had confidence in this new plan. But many of Trump's cabinet members started to warn the president that Iran had the capacity to build up its missile and drone stockpiles at a far lower cost and much more quickly than the United States could build the expensive interceptors needed to protect American interests and allies in the region.

Interesting enough, it was Vice President JD Vance who was the largest critic against a new war in the Middle East.

"In front of his colleagues, Mr. Vance warned Mr. Trump that a war against Iran could cause regional chaos and untold numbers of casualties. It could also break apart Mr. Trump's political coalition and would be seen as a betrayal by many voters who had bought into the promise of no new wars."

So JD Vance told Trump a new war with Iran would cause regional chaos. He warned Trump it would divide the Republican supporters and he feared MAGA supporters would turn their backs against them as Trump campaigned for months that Vance and him were the pro-peace team that would lead the White House responsibly. But it gets even worse.

US General Dan Kaine, who is the nation's highest-ranking military officer, specifically told Trump, "This is the standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us and that's why they're hard selling."

Despite the enormous amount of US intelligence suggesting an attack on Iran was not feasible and a military victory would be unlikely, Trump ignored every sound piece of advice and instead went all in on Netanyahu's plan.

In reality, attacking Iran is something Trump has long desired, even before he became the US president. Just look at this 1985 interview from 60 Minutes when then 39-year-old Trump first expressed his desires for Iran.

"Why couldn't we go in and take over some of their oil which is along the sea?"

"How would you do that? Would you send in the Marines? Would you take a chance in a war?"

"Let them have Iran. You take their oil. That's what I..."

"How? How? I mean, do we want a war? What do you mean we take their oil?"

"You go in. You're going to have a war in... You're going to have a war by being weak."

"Okay. How do we go in? What do we do?"

"Excuse me. You're going to have a war and it's going to start in the Middle East."

"What if the Soviet Union said, 'You do this to Iran, we're going to come in.'?"

"I don't believe they do it. The next time Iran attacks this country, go in and grab one of their big oil installations. And I mean, grab it and keep it and get back your losses because this country has lost plenty because of Iran."

You see, deep down, Trump is a neocon at heart. And as you can see in this clip, he has dreamed of toppling the Iranian regime and stealing their oil for over four decades. This, of course, shouldn't come as any surprise because this is the exact same playbook we saw unfold at the start of the year when Trump launched a military invasion in Venezuela, captured the president, Maduro, and immediately took control of the nation's oil. I believe Trump was feeling overly confident that the US military successes in Venezuela could be replicated in Iran. But Venezuela and Iran couldn't be more different. Iran is twice the size of Venezuela, home to 93 million people. And unlike Venezuela, Iran is fighting for their survival.

But while US and Iranian officials meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss potential peace talks, I think the cold hard truth is that this conflict in the Middle East is just beginning. Trump has stated that he will use Iran's 10-point plan as a basis for peace talks. And Iran has now come out with four red lines to establish peace in the region.

Number one, authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Number two, payment of war reparations.

Number three, unfreezing of all blocked Iranian financial assets.

And number four, securing a comprehensive regional ceasefire.

We now have reports that Trump has started agreeing to these new demands with Iranian officials, claiming Trump has agreed to release over $6 billion worth of frozen Iranian funds. But here's where the story takes a turn that most people still don't fully understand. Ending this war is not a decision the US government can control. Iran has a say in this, too. And all the evidence suggests that Iran may actually have very little incentive to bring this conflict to an end.

Iran is gaining leverage. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical choke points in the global economy. And with oil prices rising, supply chains under pressure, and the risk of a broader economic slowdown, Iran is no longer isolated. Iran recognizes the longer this crisis continues, the more its position improves. Because ending the war now would actually work against Iran's interests. It would lower oil prices, stabilize global markets, reduce economic pressure on the United States, and ultimately hand Donald Trump a political victory. From Iran's perspective, that outcome makes no sense. The rational strategy is the opposite: to prolong the crisis, increase global economic pressure, and to force major economies across Europe, India, and Asia to begin hedging away from the United States and adapting to a new reality. We actually might be witnessing in real time the emergence of a new center of global power. One that is not built on traditional military dominance, but on geography, energy control, and the ability to influence the global economy at scale.

But that leads me to the investing portion of today's video, so that you can understand where there are opportunities in the market. And if you've been following this channel, you know that we've been tracking SAGA Metals, trading as SAGMF in the United States and SAGA in Canada. Back in January, I covered their massive drill program in Labrador and how they were positioned to answer the US government's billion-dollar push for domestic critical minerals. As this war in the Middle East shows no signs of slowing down, I honestly believe we are only going to see an increased pressure in the demand of precious metals.

What Saga Metals has done in the last four weeks has changed the entire scale of this company. They didn't just hit their targets. They achieved a 100% drill success rate in all 36 drill holes. And the big news is Saga just acquired another titanium asset in the same district as the largest titanium mine in the world. But it gets even more interesting. They scooped it from under Rio Tinto, a top five global mining giant worth over $100 billion. If a company like that was circling the same ground, it's a pretty strong signal. This story deserves your attention, too.

Over the past 6 weeks, we've seen US radar systems, fighter jets, and multiple US military assets destroyed in the Iranian war, which means precious metals like titanium are becoming even more valuable and are a US national security imperative. Titanium is now a designated defense metal because you simply cannot build F-35 fighter jets, advanced radar, or next-gen naval platforms without it. By funding domestic supply chains, the US government is turning a major strategic vulnerability into one of its greatest investment opportunities in North America.

Now, I've reviewed and discussed many publicly traded companies on this YouTube channel before, but Saga Metals is different because earlier this year, I personally flew to one of the most remote areas in all of North America to personally visit the drill site of Saga Metals. I spent multiple days with the CEO of the company, shared meals with the entire drilling team, and even went on an epic snowmobile ride through the mountains to see firsthand the drill sites and learned everything I can about the company. I've never done this with any other company before, and now I want to show you the exclusive behind-the-scenes content from my site visit to Saga Metals.

Did you know that an F-35 fighter jet is approximately 40% titanium? Titanium is one of the most critical resources for the future of our world. And in today's YouTube video, we're taking you behind the scenes. We're taking you somewhere where no other YouTuber has been before because we are in one of the most remote areas in all of North America. We're standing in Labrador, Canada, right off the coast. Across the ocean is Greenland. And this is one of the hardest places in the world to get to. It's taken me 3 days of travel, many flights, many adventures to get here. And we are in an area that is so remote, we actually have to take snowmobiles to get there. So, in today's YouTube video, we're taking you behind the scenes. We're going to show you a company called Saga Metals. Now, Saga Metals is amazing because they've assembled one of the best teams. They have incredible geologists. But again, we are standing on potentially one of the largest titanium mines in all of North America. And in today's video, we're going to go behind the scenes, tell you everything you need to know about this company and how it's going to affect the future of the world economy. Let's go.

"Mike, where are we going today, buddy?"

"We're going up to uh the Trapper zone. See where where the drill program is."

"All right, let's rock and roll."

"Yeah, let's do it."

"So guys, we're here at the top of that mountain is the NORAD radar warning station. Mike, just kind of give us a little perspective on how big of an area we are. You know, how big, big, how big a scope this project is and what you guys have."

"Yeah, so right now we're we're at the radar project. We're specifically inside the Trapper zone. So where we started was uh what we've called Trapper North and we've come all the way down to the southern extent of of the zone in in Trapper South and uh this entire zone represents about a 3 km stretch of the oxide layering strike and to put it into perspective like that radar station over there is where the Hawkeye zone is. That's where we did our our first maiden drill program in uh January through March of 2025. That was kind of our proof of concept that, you know, the titanium, vanadium, iron that we're sourcing on this project is is in the system and and it was an extreme success and that's why we're on the Trapper zone today because that was a wild success and already um in the first two quarters that we've been drilling now um in the Trapper zone again, wild success. We've had uh 25 out of 25 holes intercept oxide mineralization which is exactly what we're going after. And so when you take this 3 km stretch, it actually wraps around like a horseshoe and comes down into the southern part of our claims and comes back up near that uh radar station there and up into the Hawkeye zone. That represents about 16 km. And now that we're actually here, you can kind of just visualize and see just how absolutely massive this is."

"All right, guys. So, we're on the trail here going to the drilling site and we're here with Mike. Mike, tell us about what we have right here."

"Yeah. So, we're uh we're just along the Trapper Trail here, and this is uh your survival tent. Uh it's set up along so that um, you know, if there's something happens uh, you know, during the night or, you know, when you're drilling, if you need to come and seek shelter and and kind of stay in there, it's set up. There's a pipe on the other side. Um, you know, a bit of a stove in there for heating and um, you know, the guys when they take break and have dinner and stuff like that, they come in here. So, you know, just really highlighting how how serious it is, um, you know, in the in the thick deep forest here in Labrador and, you know, how intense it is to run a drill program in the middle of winter, right?"

"The reason why we're fanning these holes is so that, you know, when you're building a resource, you want to think about it almost like a cube below the ground, right? So, you can't just put one hole in at a 45 degrees. We need to get that second hole at the same spot, same setup at that 70 degree dip so that you can kind of start to form like what that 3D model looks like."

"Gotcha. Yeah. Fantastic. And so where we are right now is we're on hole number 30. So R-000030. Um the essentially this pad is on the southernmost extent of Trapper South. Okay. And so what what we've done so far here, what Parker um has done is he's pulled out the core for the first 23 meters. Um so we're not quite in the zone yet. Um but this is kind of your host rock gabro norite that you're seeing here. Um and probably about another 30 meters or so we'll start to get into the magnetite zone where you'll find your your titanium, vanadium, and iron in the system. We uh we write hard S 00 and then our hole number, our box number, we'll uh every time we get a full box here, we'll uh put a lid on it, wrap it up, kick it out there. So, next time we drill a run here, we finish filling up this box, fill up this row here, come into this row, box will line up, we'll grab this box, put it inside, and uh get ready for the next run. Fantastic."

"So, we're on top of Trapper North right now. This is the start of the 3 kilometer trend. When we get to the drill and Trapper South, that's on the last pad at the most southernly uh drill pad."

"If this uh proves uh to have potential, is this the part that you said could could prove to be one of the biggest titanium?"

"In your opinion?"

"If you can prove that this is a 3 km trend of of thick oxide layering, it would be very competitive as one of the top in North America."

"Unreal. Oh."

Fantastic. Everyone, I hope you enjoyed this behind-the-scenes look into my visit to Saga Metals. And if there is one message I want to leave you with, it's that this is more than a resource story. It's geopolitics. The Pentagon is actively funding domestic supply chains for the exact minerals Saga has in the ground. This isn't wishful thinking. It's a White House directive. And Saga isn't sitting still. They're systematically assembling what's shaping up to be a massive North American titanium district with the potential for one of the largest discoveries the region has ever seen. Saga Metals is a company I'm watching very closely. And if you want to learn more about this critical mineral story, check out the link in the description below.

A special thanks to Saga Metals for making today's video possible. And a special thank you to all of our viewers who support our work here on YouTube. Thank you all for everything you do and I look forward to seeing you all in our next video.