Transcription
Hello everyone. So, I will be giving you guys a quick recap of the market and, you know, talking about the US dollar. So, we had the market, you know, do exactly what we were looking for, right? So, we highlighted the sequential SMT right between the last quarter of of the previous month and the first quarter of this month, right? So, we had SMT at these lows. Then we had the S&P 500 take out the all-time high. NASDAQ hasn't done that yet, and the Dow is lagging behind, right?
The reason for this, right, why we had the S&P 500 exploding higher along with the E-mini NASDAQ futures and the Dow lagging behind, it's due to the fact that we had failure swings in regard to the SMT divergence, which happened between these three asset classes. So, I've said this many times, the asset that makes the lower low will usually lag behind, right? The assets which make the higher the higher lows, right, will explode higher. So, here we had sequential SMT, the monthly cycle sequential SMT. Then again, we had SMT between Wednesday and Thursday. So, here we had Tuesday making the low of the week, and we had price trade higher, which we expected. And around here, we were looking for SMT to form, which it did, right here, right? So, it does not have to be a, right, a, what would I say, a low there. There will be times when it would just be a candle due to the fact that this candle right here was the beginning of the third quarter of the weekly cycle. So, there will be cases like this, whereas you'll just see price close above opening price of the third quarter like this. Then you'll have this one, whereas it closed below it. This is SMT L-spell, and it is sequential, right here. We had price close above it, right, while we can below this L. So, this is also sequential, but this is not as clear as we would like to see, like these lows right here, right? These lows were very obvious. So, when price was trading here, it was very obvious that we would have a reversal. So, we got what we were looking for this week. And to tomorrow, I'm not pretty, I'm not 100% sure what to expect, right? We are at all-time highs again. You know, we don't like being at all-time highs. We like working within the range. So, while price was here within this range, this was amazing to work within. While price was trading here for many failure swings and the Dow was trading below this low, it was pretty easy for us to anticipate that price would go higher, especially due to the fact that we had precision swing points here. Remember this? Yes.
So, now we'll look at the Forex market, which I haven't done in a very long time. So, right now, we're looking at the monthly time frame frame, right? This is a large time frame. So, currently, we're in between two major swings, right? We're in between a swing low and a swing high, right? This area right here, which is delineated by this red vertical line and this black vertical line right here, or gray, this was the first quarter of the current cental cycle, right? A cental cycle is comprised of one year. So, this would be Q1, and concurrently, we're within Q2, right? Understand? So, this is the true open of the cental cycle, which was January 1st, 2024. We are stuck in between major pools of liquidity, and we're currently at equilibrium, right? So, this is why the markets are so reluctant to give us clean price action, right? We have buy-sell liquidity here at around 106.95, and we have sell-side liquidity at 99.99, right? Currently, if we would see price trade below this low right here, this would be very good, right? But it would probably take some time before it would even do that. Or if it would trade above this high, then we would begin to have clean market conditions, right? So, currently, like looking at the higher time frame, I think that this is the ultimate draw liquidity, this high right here. But what I'm thinking is that if price drops and either takes out this or this low, right, and creates sequential SMT here, right? Say, one of these failed to take out a high, or even if this failed to take out a low, and these take out the high, then we would be looking for a major change in sentiment, which we could just use lower, lower time frame cycles to get in line with, right? Which would ultimately lead us to this, this high. And if we take this high out during this cycle, which is a larger cycle, right? So, the penal cycle is just one quarter of a larger cycle. This high and this low right here was the low of a larger cycle, which is larger than the cental cycle, right? Which is comprised of 16 years, four years per quarter. So, here we have an immense amount of liquidity, right? And also below here, we have an immense amount of liquidity. Remember what I said today? I said that the yearly cycle and the cental cycle, and there are cycles, all that they function very well within the Forex market. So, right now, we're looking at price. It's not as clear. It's not clear, right? Because we have buy-side liquidity here, sell liquidity here. If you look at the lower time frames, then you won't be seeing this. When you zoom out, you do. So, price, so if price goes below this low under sequential SMT, and that would trigger a move higher. The price goes above this high, there's sequential SMT there, would trigger a move lower. So, we're looking at the macro view of price action right now. Remember, this is the true open of the kenal cycle, right? Currently, we have a swing high being formed right here. We had price trade into this fair value gap, into this balanced price range, right? We had SMT here, right? So, we had price run above this high, but we didn't have the British pound run below this low, and this is usually a telltale sign in price action, right? And this was not sequential, but it was SMT. And why would this even mean anything, right? When you have SMT, which is not sequential, it will, you will usually serve as low resistance liquidity after there is a, a higher time frame sequential SMT, right? Also, if you look at this candle right here, which is the high that I use tomorrow to buy sell liquidity, it's an up-close candle, which means that the Great British Pound should have done close candles here. If you know on a regular day, here we had a do close candle, so that's good, right? That's normal. But if you look here, we have an up-close candle. This right here is a precision swing point on the higher time frame. Can you see that? So, while we had SMT here, which is not sequential, the fact that we had a precision swing point, right? And the fact, and the fact that this was Q4 of the previous year, we could expect lower prices, right? Which is why when price was here, I, I don't remember if anyone remembers me talking about this, right? Regards to the dollar. So, this right here is not the ultimate move, but it would, you know, cause a pullback in price. So, right now, what do we do under the higher time frame? What do we, we can find trades on the lower time frame, of course. We can find scalps, you know, small pullbacks where we can get one or two, three, four hours. But looking at the higher time frame, what do you expect? We have buy-side here and here, right? So, if price takes out, or there is sequential SMT here, because we're not 100% sure which one would cause it, right? So, there's SMT here. Even if price just runs here, right, and reacts to this right here, we have this high right here, which the Great British Pound is pretty close to. We have this quick also right here. We have this quick as well. But what makes me, you know, want to see sequential SMT here is the fact that we have this precision swing point here, right? And this is internal liquidity, this fair value gap right here, which price just barely ran into. And this is also a, you know, a very tilt, a tilt set that price will be gravitating back to fill this imbalance in the future, right? So, we have a true open here, which is a higher time frame true open. So, this is why, you know, you know, we are having a hard time in the Forex market. This is why the Forex market isn't clean. This is exactly why. Which is why I said, you know, the market is waiting until March. You can see that we're beginning to have expansion, right? And this is, this would be a quote-unquote block. But to be honest, as the days go by, it's like I am starting to, you know, believe less and less, you know, about blocks. Like I don't believe in them as I would when I was, you know, when I just began. So, currently, I, I usually look for auto blocks to be ran through. Like right here, you see price. I'm not going to look for this to like hold price, right? I focus on gaps. Also, right here, you can see that this candle right here, the formation of this swing high, right? It's in this fair value gap, whereas this swing low right here is not in this fair value gap. Do you see that? That's a cracking correlation as well. Here, you see that this swing low is within this fair value gap, well, this balanced price range, as it, as the previous up to this one, right, to the left of it, cut right through it. That's balanced price range. So, the Euro Dollar, the higher British Pound, you know, this high will be taken out. And I am just watching. Like, listen, whenever I see sequential SMT between, it doesn't matter if it goes above or below, right? That will be amazing because then we will have a, you know, an almost perfect market. We have a symmetrical market. We have a higher time frame sequence or SMT, which is why price moves, that's why price turns, right? What do you wait for? You wait for a higher time frame cycle sequential SMT, right? And then you need to see a lower time frame sequential SMT form after that. Just like here, this was the monthly cycle. So, this would be the perfect, you know, this would be perfect to get in line with on the lower time frame. This is a 4-hour chart, right? So, monthly cycle sequential SMT, then what? Then you just, you, you will be looking at like at least three cycles below that. You're just checking them, right? And once you see SMT on even the weekly cycle, then you're in perfect, you know, order flow. You know, you'll be able to know what you're doing, right? By using this, right? And even though we're at all-time highs, so we just keep taking the all-time highs, right? The futures market is very different from the Forex market, right? Which is why I posted today, right, to update you guys, give you guys, you know, try to give you guys more clarity because I see a lot of questions being asked. Like, why doesn't the yearly cycle work on futures? Because it's not pegged to the yearly cycle, right? It's when they coded the algorithm, they made the yearly cycle for the Forex market, not this market, right? The yearly cycle, the cental cycle, that's for the Forex market, market, right? The US dollar, Great British Pound, Euro USD. If we go here, right, and we look at the last previous quarter, here we had price, right, take out this low, then rally higher, higher, then crashed at Q4. This was perfect. This was Q1, Q2, price drop below, take out stops and rally. You're not going to see, you're not going to see the futures market be this clear on the within the cental cycle, right? What happens, you know, whenever you see in regards to the cental cycle, you see whenever you see the dollar drop, then you will see futures rally pretty hard. Whenever you see the dollar rally, you will see futures drop. And, uh, let me try to show you guys that right now. So, here, look at that. So, the cental cycle of the US dollar dictates the direction, right, of the futures contracts, but it's negatively, you know, it's related. On the lower time frames, there will be times when, you know, it doesn't look like they're related as much. But when you zoom out and you use the cental cycle of the Forex market or the US dollar, right, and you compare it to the futures market, then everything becomes clear, right? So, for example, right here, when was this? October. This was October 2023. We had the US dollar drop. Now, without looking at the futures market, it should rally higher. Where's October? Here, October formed the swing low, right? Where this formed the swing high and a precision swing point, right? It dropped. This rallied. It's been rallying. It's continuing to rally while this is within a range, which is typical because price should be irrational right now because the Forex market is not one-sided, right? So, this could rally or go up right now. It doesn't matter, right? Also, right here, look, this is in July 2023. See, July 2023. We had price drop, right? We had this rally higher, and we had price drop. So, the monthly time frame, right? You can use the monthly time frame, you know, just to relate to the cental cycle. You don't typically use a cental cycle to trade unless you're a stock investor, right? Unless you're, you know, you trade options or or something, you know, unless you trade, you know, unless you're investing. For say, it's better to say unless you're investing, then that's when you would use this for action. And this information, you know, this will help us a lot, you know, over the coming months and so on to get in line with bigger moves, to, you know, buy when to get into the stock market, when to get out, right? We'll be using this information. You know, it's not just in hindsight. We'll be using this as we go along. So, there is, you know, remember when I, I told you guys about, I told you guys about, um, breakaway gaps, right? So, this is just something else that I'll just throw in right now. So, right here, we had price trade, right, and fill this gap, like go way over it. Then we had price here, failed to fill this gap. That's a crack in correlation as well, right? Afterwards, what do we see? We see a formation of a break, a gap, then we have a fair value gap that is almost perfectly balanced very quickly, then price runs away. Whereas here, it was not balanced. Why? This gap was filled, way overfilled. This one wasn't. You see that? Of course, you just like, you know, tip. So, again, this is why the Forex market is important to, you know, cross-analysis because it gives you insight like this, whereas you can't use the yearly cycle to get insight by just looking at these three markets if you're a stock trader. Just doing the same there as well. If you're a stock trader, you're going to need to be looking at this, right? Why? Because you're going to be looking at this. This is why you always start with the US dollar because it's important, right? Everything revolves around the US dollar for now, right? Everything revolves around it. There is nothing that doesn't revolve around the US dollar right now. It is the world currency for now. Emphasis for now, until, you know, God forbid something bad happens and, you know, the whole system crashes over there or something. Don't know. But anyways, yes, this is what I wanted to share tonight, and I hope that you guys found value in this. This, you know, this has a lot of gems, and hopefully, it clears up some, you know, things that you are having problems with. I specifically came here, you know, tonight to speak about these things because of the questions, you know, that I've been seeing in the community chat. I'm seeing your questions. I'm answering most of them right now, and I'll be answering them again. This way, it's better to come in a video, you know, and speak for, you know, 20 minutes, 30 minutes or so, and answer the questions here where everyone can glean from, you know, me speaking about that. It's better than typing out stuff that you probably won't even read or you just glance at, you won't even take notes of it. But it's better to, you know, hear me just talking, engraves it in your mind better as well. So, I hope that you guys have a wonderful night. It's 11:10 p.m. right now, and I'm not going to sleep. Probably going to be backtesting. I got a lot of stuff that I'm testing out, trying to build an algorithm, which is killing me right now. So difficult. But with time, you know, it'll be done. Could be five years, three years from now. Don't care. Have a wonderful night.