Transcription
Hello, it's Elliot. So, we're back in a new video format. As you know, for over 3 years now, I've been sharing with you at the end of each month the performance I've achieved in the FX market, completely transparently, whether it was a negative month or a positive month. Uh, but I thought it might be interesting to go further and really do a recap of what happened during the month, what my little plays were, as well as the trades of different traders who are members of the MTA, and do something much deeper. So, with that, let's get straight to the point.
So, the first thing I want to talk to you about is commodities. Okay? Uh, in September, in October, we saw uh the price of gold absolutely skyrocket. You can see that we saw uh a break uh that happened on October 28th uh August 28th, sorry, 2025, and following that, a real surge in the prices of gold and silver. So, what can we say about that? The reasons behind it are, firstly, the rate cuts in the US. Okay? We have a Fed that sees, based on economic data, especially employment data, that is starting to be a bit worrying, and so that's fueling bets on rate cuts, knowing that inflation, let's say, hasn't really taken off. So, in September and October, we saw two 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed. Now, this rate cut generally causes a drop in US Treasury yields, and that will generally put pressure on the dollar, obviously, and send volume into gold, silver, and commodities. We saw extremely aggressive upward movements. We had even seen some images towards the top where we had surpassed $4,200, $4,300 per ounce of gold. People lining up in Asia, lining up in Australia to buy gold. This is generally a signal of an absolute top. And the reason behind it is, as I explained, these rate cuts. We also have central banks accumulating gold. And you should always know that there's always a narrative. There's always an explanation behind every move. But that doesn't mean you should chase these moves and FOMO, like many did, lining up at the stores to buy physical gold. Okay, so there was that. The other reason was also the US government shutdown, which brings a certain uncertainty to the markets and which, again, will push gold prices up. And so, in this global context, the thing to be extremely careful about is not to get caught up in this FOMO. And I was particularly seeing, not so much in my community groups, etc., these will be people who are a bit more educated in financial markets, but especially in my Instagram DMs, things like that. Many people, as soon as we passed $4,000 here on gold, were asking me if gold was a good investment. And you should know that gold, obviously, unlike stock indices that have value creation, gold creates nothing, and if we look at it from a monthly logarithmic perspective, gold tends to be very cyclical. Okay? So yes, we have these big upward movements, but we also have these long periods. Here, between the 1980s and the 2000s, we had 20 years of a downward correction. Okay? Here, similarly, between 2011 to make a new all-time high, it took until 2023. Okay? So that's over 12 years of neutral to negative returns. So gold is a cyclical commodity that I absolutely do not recommend trying to chase, but rather to anticipate. And that's actually what I was able to do. So for the month of October, I was able to have positions in silver that were closed with very large profits. I would have liked to show you this live, but unfortunately, on the day I'm making this video, literally November 8th, there's maintenance on Interactive Brokers. So I can't show you this position, but a screenshot will appear with my silver trades, which I've been holding for a long time, on which I was able to profit precisely with this total euphoria we saw in the commodities market. So that's the first thing.
The second thing is yields. Okay? So if we look at US Treasury yields, we see that the trend remains downward. So, I remind you, yields are the return on US Treasury bonds. This yield continues to fall, driven precisely by a Fed that is rather dovish. Okay? So now, at the end of October, the last Fed meeting, we saw a 25-basis-point rate cut. So that's exactly what was expected. However, what's called a "hawkish cut," so a rate cut but with a statement from Powell that was a bit more hawkish, a tendency to cut rates less strongly than what was more or less expected. And we'll come back to that because it's something I shared with you literally a month ago on the dollar. So we'll come back to that. But so, this is a bit of the reason why we saw an increase in yields. But otherwise, globally, we remain on this downward trend with rates tending to fall. And, again, screenshots of purchases of 20-year US Treasury bonds that I had mentioned and executed a few months ago will appear on the screen, which are therefore in very good profit and which I am currently holding. So that's a bit of the picture on bonds and yields. And now let's move on to indices. Okay? So from here, literally at the beginning of November, at the time I'm making this video, it's November 8th, we've seen bearish movements. I won't go into them because I'm really going to focus on October and September. But so, October and September, if we look, we can see it directly on the monthly chart, we'll look at the closes. You can see September was a positive month for US stock indices, the S&P, and October too. And globally, we've seen a continuation of risk-on positions. Risk-on positions, which are, for me, the biggest positions I've had this year, 2025. I've shared that with you many times. Big Nasdaq buybacks I was able to take. So again, the big Nasdaq purchases I was able to make will now appear on the screen because I can't log into the platform right now due to maintenance, but basically it was just at these prices. So we saw a nice upward continuation. The only thing we saw was high volatility in October. Here, you can see on October 10th with Trump announcing new tariffs on China. So that brought this geopolitical issue back to the table. At the same time as a government shutdown, so on the indices, we saw this drop which was completely corrected afterwards, but we'll see just after that on the crypto market, it was much more complex and much more aggressive. So that was one of the things.
Uh, otherwise, another thing I want to talk to you about that we've seen recently is the increase in the dollar. This is the main theme over the last month. So what you see here is my formula to get the US Dollar Currency Index. And we see this upward continuation. Uh, if we look at the dollar index, you can see precisely this rise, a rise that I had talked about in a video a month ago, which was right here, where I explained that markets function as a forward-looking mechanism. So the current price is the price based on future expectations. Okay? And so I explained literally on October 3rd, right here, that for me, the dollar was undervalued. Not because what was happening was good news, but because everything that was going to happen had already been priced in, and that was the reason why the dollar was already extremely undervalued. So I'm replaying this part that I shared literally a month ago. The Fed cut rates twice, okay? But so this would have a completely positive impact on the dollar. So for me, currently, we potentially have a risk asymmetry on the dollar where we have, let's say, more risk of upside than downside risk. So if I were to be positioned on the dollar right now, especially given the current valuations and the fact that we're down 10% for the year, I would be more bullish dollar than bearish dollar. In addition to that, I shared this with you literally a month ago, and as you can see, it was around this red moment, and you can see that the dollar has continued to rise. So my view was correct on this, and I was able to profit from it. As you can see here, I was able to share in the Macro Trader Accelerator, the Data Analysis Pro service, that is to say, the research service that is included. And so this bullish view of the dollar that I shared on October 5th, 2025, a few days before the release of the US non-farm payrolls macroeconomic data, I was able to profit from this rise by positioning myself around the NFP. So as you can see here, this is a post I shared within the Macro Trader Accelerator. I'll put the links below. I always share all my research, all my positions, etc. And so my buy positions around the NFP are ongoing. Many people will tell you that trading the news is extremely dangerous, that you should stay away from it, etc. No, it's dangerous if you don't understand what you're doing, if you understand all the mechanisms, and so here, specifically for me, it was that if we had an NFP that came out as expected, there was a high chance it would push the dollar up. If we had an NFP that was higher than expected, so with rather good news, the dollar could see a real repricing and really explode upwards. And if we saw an NFP that was lower than expected, so let's say bad for employment, in fact, the dollar's outlook was already so bearish that there would be no surprise, and perhaps there would be a small dip, but I wouldn't lose much. So in fact, the risk-reward, the risk asymmetry was completely bullish. So here, you can see that I was able to execute positions even before the NFP data, and as you can see afterwards, the positions went very well, and I was able to exit with a total profit of 2R, and all of this, again, I was able to share gradually in the Macro Trader Accelerator.
So that's one of the things I wanted to share with you. Next, the other thing is Bitcoin and crypto valuations. Okay? So in crypto, we've seen a lot of volatility. If we look at September, we had this month which was positive, and as soon as October arrived, everyone was expecting an October rally. Okay? Because in terms of seasonality, Bitcoin tends to be extremely strong in October. You can see October, November, and I'm only looking at certain years here, but if we put the years in, you can see that October and November tend to be the biggest months for Bitcoin. So everyone was expecting this upward movement in cryptos. The only thing, and something I talked about again in this video, which I highly recommend you watch, dated October 5th, 2025. The video will appear somewhere here. Uh, by the way, you'll also understand all the deeper macroeconomic reasons that I'm explaining here about my dollar purchases, etc. And I also explained my outlook for the crypto market. But my outlook was simply that if we look at the logarithmic term, okay, we have this duration of about 1065 days between the bottom and the top of each cycle, which gave us a date, for me, it was October 20th. Okay. So for me, there was a high chance we would see the end of a crypto Bitcoin bullish cycle precisely in October. And so I have no idea what the absolute top will be. But your objective as a trader and investor is not to catch the absolute top, the absolute bottom. No, it's to have averages. Okay? It's to have averages and always trade, always work with good risk management and good risk-to-reward. So at the end of a cycle, yes, we might still have 20% to gain on the upside, but you potentially risk a bear market of -60%. Okay? So very dangerous, this kind of zone, very dangerous. And that's precisely why I was able to take profits. I was able to take profits in October. I'll show you exactly when. Uh, but so personally, I was able to accumulate a lot of crypto in April. We had this pump, and here, for me, it was the cascade of liquidations we saw starting from October 10th. So what I explained where Trump announced his tariffs with China, it created general panic in the markets. We saw a kind of flash crash, we saw the markets break precisely at these levels. For me, that was the first really big sign of a potential end of cycle on Bitcoin. And so from there, I was expecting a return of prices, a return of risk-on sentiment to be able to execute sell positions. Again, not because for me, it's over, we've finished the cycle and we're at the top, no, but at least to greatly reduce my risk, to take profits because again, the risk-reward becomes negative. Okay? And that's precisely what I was able to do. Right here, you have my account with my entire trade history. We can go into previews, trade history, you see enable, disable. So all the red arrows are sell positions. The green arrows are buy positions. So you can see buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, sell, buy. Again, I was able to take sell positions at the end of 2024 because valuations were starting to get too high and my crypto exposure was too significant. So I was able to cash out cash that I was able to reinvest in March, in April, when we had these drops, the purchases were literally perfect, and since then, we've seen the markets pump, and as you can see on the return, which was right here, at $100,000 to $116,000, I was able to execute precisely my sell positions that you see here. Again, absolutely perfect. If we look at the daily chart, you can see the timing of these sell positions. 4-hour chart, you can see. So we had this return to $116,000. $116,000 where I was able to execute my sell positions and thus profit from the crypto market. And again, I shared all of this entirely with all the members of the Macro Trader Accelerator.
So first, by explaining precisely for me, and this is also something I explained in the October 5th video, is that for me, either we are on a 4-year cycle, which is the classic Bitcoin cycle that I just explained, or on a cycle that extends a bit if we take into account the business cycle, okay, with the ASMPMI, where we see these cycles, the last three cycles lasted 4 years. However, currently, we see the ASMPMI struggling to recover, and a cycle that is extended, probably because rates have remained higher for longer than expected. What you see below is the S&P 500 with a year-on-year change, just so you can see how correlated it is with the ASMPMI. And here, I've put the S&P 500, but I could put Bitcoin, it's more or less the same. So it can clearly suggest that Bitcoin is a macro asset that would therefore follow the business cycle and not just a simple 4-year cycle, if you will. Okay? And again, for me, there's this risk-reward story, and that's why I was able to take profits. But as I told you, I was able to share all of this with the members of the Macro Trader Accelerator. You can see on October 20th, I explained, I remain very attentive and might consider reducing some risk on the Fibonacci levels, expecting this upward movement on Bitcoin, circling where I plan to take profits, and as you can see afterwards, on October 27th, I was able to share that, as expected, we did see a return to $116,000, and I was able to share my positions on Kraken. You can see right here where I executed my two sell positions as planned to reduce some risk. And so obviously, this increased my cash reserves in my fund. So again, cash reserves, you can see here from May 2023 to today, you see that my cash reserves have exploded, especially in the last two months because I've had significant profit-taking, and so I'm less exposed to the markets at the end of a cycle than I am at the beginning. And you can see, in particular, that my cash reserves, for example, here, had significantly decreased in April, in May. Okay? And this drop in my cash reserves was, in fact, due to the time when we had this crypto drop, and I was able to inject cash into the crypto market and also inject cash into the Nasdaq, which was right here, the position I had mentioned in April. So obviously, injecting volume there caused my cash reserves to decrease because my cash was invested in risk assets. However, right now, I'm taking profits, so my cash reserves are increasing. So if we see a real correction, and a correction that on the market, on Bitcoin, we are completely seeing. You can see that this downward movement, I expected it, it's exactly what we're seeing. Uh, well, it's good to see in my specific situation because my cash reserves have increased. So, that means I have more gunpowder to use in the future.
Now, when we look at my performance over the last two months, because I didn't share September with you. I'll explain why. You can see here the evolution. Again, we're focusing only on my leveraged positions. So this doesn't include, for example, my big Nasdaq purchases, it doesn't include my big bond purchases, it doesn't include my big Bitcoin profit-taking. So let's say it's even seen as a downside, let's say. But anyway. Uh, September was a negative month for me. It was actually my worst month of the year. The reason I didn't share it. I was really ashamed. Uh, no, I'm kidding. Uh, the reason is, as you can see here. I had three positions in September. In fact, I was a bit busy with other things. A bit busy with other things. And so, well, I only had three positions, two losses. So, not much to share except that it wasn't a good month in the markets. Again, when I say in the markets, I mean on my leveraged positions because, as I showed you with Nasdaq, with Bitcoin, etc., I was able to feast, I was able to eat a lot, but on my leveraged positions, I didn't do anything specific. But again, I find it important to share it with you, whether it's positive or negative, and for you to see and understand that even for me, with over 11 years of experience, having worked in institutions, today, well, I've always, in short, worked in this. Negative months happen, and it's part of the game, which is why risk management needs to be extremely sharp. Anyway, so that's that.
However, October was my second best month of the year. So, a very good October with a total of six positions for the month of October. Three winners, three losers, but the three losers are very small, and the three winners are nice and fat. But what you don't see through this video, just the performance, is that knowing my way of doing things, I could have aimed for more than 10R in October. Okay? I finished October with a total profit of 4.95R, so with a risk of $1,000, I finished with a profit of $4,950 for the month. Again, I always talk in R, risk factor, so that it's understandable and not just dollars. But as I was saying, the only thing you don't see here that the members of the Macro Trader Accelerator did see is that in October, I had many very good ideas, many setups that really played out, but for personal reasons, I was a bit less present, and so again, it's my second best month of the year. It's great. I made very good profits, but knowing myself, I could have aimed for x10 this month instead of x5. In fact, I could have doubled my performance. I could have doubled my performance. But with that, I was delighted to see that many members were able to really benefit from this month of October. So, we have Alexandre, who finished with a total profit of 6.4 times his risk. It's been 2 months now that he's been in the Macro Trader Accelerator, his second positive month. So congratulations, Alexander. Then we have Lucas too, who finishes with 9.11. So again, a performance that is better than mine for this specific month if we only consider my leveraged positions. And again, for me, what matters and what I like and what I love is not just the performance itself. Again, congratulations to Lucas, but it's everything that's behind it. So I really feel that I've reached a new level in recent weeks, whether in my understanding of the market, my risk management, the reduction of my overtrading, or the rigor in my note-taking and my trading plan. What I love is that he's someone who doesn't focus on the end result, the profit itself, but on the process he applied to achieve these results. Similarly, Méline, with a complete analysis of her October performance, finishes with 5.85 times her risk, so her max R. And despite this profit, she manages to have the perspective to analyze the situation. So the progress, I'm increasingly able to be patient. I notice that I'm increasingly comfortable with higher timeframes like H4, which better suits my lifestyle. Okay? You should know that when you trade, you have to adapt your position-taking, adapt the timeframes you trade according to your own situation, your personal situation. Something I really like to see is "I manage to let average setups pass and observe the market more calmly." Because again, in trading, it's a game of expectation, and it's not the more trades you take that will make you the most profitable. On the contrary, it's being extremely selective about the trades you take. And that's where, you see, I take fewer positions, but my results are more consistent and cleaner. My fundamental analysis is sharpening, I understand better the direction the market will take. It's motivating to see that discipline always pays off. Again, as she said, it's the macroeconomic fundamental aspect that will give you the underlying direction and allow you to filter out all the setups you might have with just basic technical analysis. And again, something I really like is the self-analysis, even though she finishes the month with a very good month and very good profits, it's seeing that there are certain difficulties to improve, like the end of the month which remains a trap. I still have the desire to place one last trade to improve performance, and she has the maturity to see that this month it worked, but I know it's a risk for my consistency. So again, congratulations Méline. Congratulations to Alexandre too, who finishes with 3.8R. He had big trades on Eurocad, that was cool. And Ozi Kiwi. Ozi Kiwi position that I myself took as a small short with a loss that I quickly cut. I think I lost 0.25 on it. But so, congratulations Alexandre, congratulations Enzo, congratulations Andy. There's also someone, ah yes, Maxime, whom I wanted to share with you because Maxime finished the month in negative. Okay, but again, what I love to see is this seriousness regarding the analysis of why he finished the month in negative. So a slightly negative month, but especially very formative, as he says. This is something extremely important, but so the main error. Too many market orders, often linked to an immediate confirmation bias without waiting for true confluences. Immediate confirmation bias is when you look at a potential trade, let's say here, on Bitcoin. You're looking for buy positions, and so you'll look here on a logarithmic chart, and you'll see that we are, basically, on this upward trend, and you'll say, "Ah, so this could be a good buy." And the timing, well, look, we've had several candles that are a bit positive, etc. The best timing is now. You can imagine that if you do a much deeper analysis, there's very little probability that the best time to execute your position is, by chance, now. That's immediate confirmation bias. And so, instead of being patient and letting the price really reach very good valuations, we always have the impression that the best valuation is the current one. Okay? And so, very good analysis from Maxime, and again, thank you for sharing all of this, even if it's a negative month, and again, the importance of tracking absolutely everything and seeing what went right, what went wrong, to be able to improve gradually with his best trade per trade. So again, thank you Maxime. Again, congratulations to Arnaud, who finishes with 2.8R profit. Bris, who finishes with 3.3R, rather satisfied with October with more rigorous trade selection. So congratulations Bris. We also have Amine, who finishes with over 11R. Patience is truly the key. Again, congratulations, your hit rate is top at 67%, 88% profit in total. We also have Ethan, who cashed in 4.4 times his R max for the month of October. So again, really congratulations for that.
And now, for the weeks and months to come, my focus will remain on the crypto market. As I explained, I expected this entire movement. Now, the big question mark is: will we finally go back up with the PMIs picking up, the ASMPMI, and the business cycle extending, and ultimately a top on Bitcoin arriving rather in April 2026, for example, with a return of liquidity? I also want to mention that the US government shutdown is causing some liquidity problems in the markets, and we see this, for example, if we look at the TGA, Treasury General Accounts, we can see a liquidity surplus. So this liquidity surplus in the TGA simply means that this liquidity is not in the markets. Okay? When we see this increase, and this was completely caused by the US government shutdown. It hasn't reopened yet. So we're waiting for that. So that will be the big question mark, the crypto market, as well as the Fed's decisions to see, in terms of liquidity, if we will have a continuation of economic stimulus with rates continuing to fall, because I remind you that during the last Fed meeting, Powell slightly pushed back the expectations for rate cuts, and that's precisely why we saw the dollar continue its rise, because Jerome Powell told us that a December rate cut was not necessarily decided and was not the most obvious thing, which caused expectations for rate cuts to be pushed back. So these will be the main areas to watch. And then, to finish, as I explained, personally, I'm very happy with the performance, especially what I was able to achieve in October, even though, knowing myself, I know I could have at least doubled that performance this month. And otherwise, my big non-leveraged positions, my crypto profit-takings have been great. Anyway, overall, months that have been quite serious and very profitable. I remind you, but below this video, I'll put the link to the DataList Pro Service where I share all my research. The last trade I'm currently in, I'll show you that too, I haven't shown it to you, but the last trade, the only trade I'm currently in, is a short sell trade on OIS Swiss, which we can see Swiss is currently around 1R profit. So that's for the month of November. So I'll probably share that with you at the end of this month. But as I was saying, if you want access to all my research, etc., I'll put the link in the description. There are also Loom videos, anyway, I'll put that there. And with that, it was Elliot. Let me know if you like this new, slightly more interactive format.