Transcription
There are lots of Western leaders, lots of Western governments who would like to see the back of Vladimir Putin. I think the question is who who would come next, who would replace him and that's where things get difficult.
There are reports coming out of Russia of a plot to oust Vladimir Putin, but all might not be exactly as it seems. And this is why. Hi everyone, Neil Patterson here, host of This Is Why. And there's going to be an awful lot of talk about changes in leadership over the next couple of days. So you might want to spare a thought for Vladimir Putin. This weekend is Victory Day. That's Russia's big setpiece celebration of its victory over Nazi Germany and others. There's lots of tanks and missiles and funny marching through Red Square. Except this year, it's been scaled back. And it's probably not a complete coincidence. This has happened after reports of a plot to oust the Russian president. Sergey Shyigu is the man named as behind the conspiracy. He was Putin's defense minister until he was sidelined after things didn't go exactly to plan in Ukraine. But here's where things get confusing because he's not someone you'd immediately identify as a traitor. So what's really going on here? Ivor Bennett is Sky Moscow correspondent. Ivor, always always good to have you on the podcast. Look, these these reports that that Vladimir Putin is increasingly fearful or perhaps even just aware of some sort of an assassination attempt. What do we know?
Okay, so these reports are based on a European intelligence report. Um, we don't know where this report came from. We don't know which European intelligence agency is responsible for it. But according to it and the reports of the report, yes, supposedly Vladimir Putin is very worried about um an assassination attempt or an internal coup d'etatar to the point where he is now in the last few months has been hunkering down and spending much of his time um out of the public eye and in his in his various bunkers.
And and and given the position that he holds the country that he leads, you know, you'd imagine he would always have, you know, at least a couple of eyes peering over his shoulder. But but the man named in the report is someone called Sergey Shogu. His his former defense minister. So So who exactly is he?
Yeah. So as you say, his former defense minister, he was in post for more than a decade, but then he was sidelined a couple of years ago um roughly this time two years ago actually in 2024 and and moved to be secretary of the security council and that was seen as an ousting. The two used to be very close friends. He was a loyal ally ally. The two would actually go on fishing trips together and would often post um kind of quite macho topless photos of them uh in their fishing boat together. But since then, as I say, he's been sidelined. But according to this report, he is the one who is associated with these um assassination kind of plotting um because supposedly he he retains quite a lot of authority within the military high command. And the other thing that this report talks about is that Putin as a result has been kind of not just hunkering down but also has tightened all the security protocols around him. So people in his inner circle, people like photographers, cooks, um bodyguards, they're not allowed to use mobile phones around him that can be connected to the internet. They have they're not allowed to use public transport supposedly. and also um they've had surveillance cameras installed in their in their homes according to this report. That's how um paranoid Putin supposedly is right now. The report also says that Putin has cut down visits to his official residences outside Moscow and he spends all his time uh supposedly weeks on end in this bunker in Kranadar which is in southern Russia near the Black Sea where he's um kind of completely kind of uh uh engaged and submerged in the kind of minutiai of his invasion of Ukraine and supposedly he disappears for weeks at a time but state media is then given kind of pre-recorded footage of him to to play out on their news bulletins to project this image of of normality and that everything's actually is fine. Nobody panic.
Just how accurate or credible do we actually think this report is?
There are certainly some things that are believable. I think the paranoia that Putin might be is claimed to be showing is believable. I mean, look at events elsewhere. We've had Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela, a Putin ally. Um, he's been toppled by by by the Trump administration. We've seen the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, again, another Putin ally. So, I think those kind of events coupled with Ukraine's increasing ability to strike deep inside Russia with their long range drone attacks, I think that will certainly have made Vladimir Putin worried for his own personal safety. But does that mean Sergey Shyu, his former loyal ally and former close friend, does that mean he is plotting a queue against him? I'm not so sure.
Well, well, is there is there any evidence that we might be able to point to? I mean, because look, if you want to take on Vladimir Putin, you're going to need support and you're probably going to need support from aspects of the the the Russian military. And you would assume given his time as defense minister, that Shyu might at least have access to that.
Well, that's that's the thinking in this report. That's the reasoning that he used to be the head of the the Ministry of Defense and therefore he retains a lot of kind of loyalty and authority within the kind of military high command and the powers that be the powers you would need to launch uh a coup. But I think that's where the kind of theory becomes unstuck in the eyes of many analysts and Russia watchers because actually you know Sergey Shyu is the man who's associated with the the kind of botched invasion of Ukraine. why it didn't go to plan to begin with and then why there were so many kind of supply issues, strategy kind of fumblings in the two years that followed um before his ousting. So that's one reason. Then secondly um his kind of former close associates and people he put in place within the kind of high command of the military since his ousting have themselves been ousted and and kind of been subject to corruption cases. Um some have been put in put in prison, things like that. um there's been a systematic purging of Shyu's allies. So that's where this idea that he's got this authority within the military, that's where that idea becomes unstuck. Let's set Sergey Shyu just to just to the side for a second. I either you know Vladimir Putin is a former, you know, KGB FSB agent, right? Yeah. This is a this is a sharp man particularly when it comes to kind of the cloak and dagger stuff. So in his time as president, has he done anything to the states to the states apparatuses to make sure that a coup attempt is is less likely than more?
Oh yeah, absolutely. Um and as you say, his kind of KGB KGB schooling will have will have taught him that. He's been in power, don't forget, for 26 years. It's a a quarter of a century. It's an incredibly long time. And in that time, um he has kind of centralized all power. Critics will say it's an authoritarian state, of course. Um, and and he's and he's kind of stacked the people stacked his inner circle and the the federal security services that protect high ranking officials with with loyalists. So, I think it would be very very hard to um to actually to kind of plot against him because uh it'd be very hard to plot against him without someone someone finding out who's a loyalist to him and then Vladimir Putin finding out. Yeah, I think he's he's built the system as such to to to to deter against um any kind of internal coups.
So I if if we imagine for a second that this report is not credible and and you've given plenty of reasons why we may well at least doubt it somewhat. Why then do you think it was released and by whom are we is there a bit of shady stuff going on in the background? Spooks being spooks disinformation and all that.
Well, I think um there certainly seems to be an element of that and I think the timing is interesting being released in this week in the runup to uh Victory Day and the big military parade. So, Victory Day is May the 9th. It's a really really big deal here. It's it marks the the end of World War II and specifically here the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany marked each year by this big military parade in Red Square. So, it's supposed to be a big projection of power. um for Vladimir Putin is a key instrument for his kind of central to his kind of um the the the the identity that he's created for modern Russia. Um so so releasing it now kind of obviously projects an image of weakness for him if he's if the Russian public suddenly here he's hunkered down kind of fearing um assassinations attempt assassination attempts. So that's one reason. I think the other reason uh is that it could be also to destabilize the elites here, the Russian elites and get them looking over their shoulder because if say the result of all this is that Vladimir Putin ousts his kind of longtime ally and close friend Sergey Shuyu then that's going to get make the other kind of people in his inner circle, the elites all rather rather nervous. And so, okay, we don't know exactly who it's from, but um it's from a European intelligence agency and this could certainly serve Europe's interests, I'd say.
I mean, assassination or not, I mean, we we do know that Vladimir Putin has some broader security concerns. I mean, the the the victory march that you've just been talking about has been has been scaled back this year. There have been warnings issued uh to embassies based in Kev, of course, the the Ukrainian capital. Why why is all that going on?
Yeah. So, so to just add some more context about this parade, um it normally involves lots of heavy machinery. Normally there are armored personnel carriers rumbling across Red Square. Um the big YS ballistic missile launcher um carrying its intercontinental ballistic missiles across Red Square. It's a really that's normally the highlight. Last year they even paraded uh some attack drones. This year though they've said they're going to scale it down. There won't be any heavy machinery. And the reason is the threat of Ukrainian drones. There has been a spike in drone attacks across Russia recently. Not just um kind of energy infrastructure. Um but also at the start of this week a drone hit a Moscow highrise just a few miles from the Kremlin. And I think that has made the authorities really rattled here. It's got them worried and nervous that their big day, Vladimir Putin's big parade is going to be disrupted. So that's why they've decided to to scale it down. Um, and I think there's also another school of thought is that there could be more battlefield pressures as well that some of this machinery is actually needed in Ukraine rather on Red Square for this parade.
But let's just just go back to to Vlet Putin himself. Could he ever be, you know, so to speak, taken out, or is his grasp on power just so complete, so total that it would be unthinkable? Okay, just an example, we have Genny Pgojian, um, the former leader of the Vagnner mercenary group. He had a very large, very public, very dangerous falling out with Vladimir Putin. Just how close did he get to being a serious threat to Putin's authority or or even his life?
No, exactly. I mean that was the biggest challenge on his leadership since he came to power really wasn't it is it was and it almost came from nowhere um he seemed untouchable then all of a sudden as you say progression led this column of men um with so many kind of armed mercenaries behind him to within 200 kilometers of Moscow and many actually believe he could have actually if he'd come this far what would the authorities would have what would they have done I mean they would have been quite powerless to stop anything and and actually he was c and it was all kind of called off at the last moment and a kind of deal was struck and then two months later Pregosian winds up dead in this mystery plane crash. So so yeah that was a real kind of threat to his authority since then in the two years he did seem he did manage to kind of tighten his grip and control. Um but actually I must say in recent weeks there has there seems to be a kind of shift in the atmosphere here for a number of reasons. Um because there have been a number of instances where high-profile people have kind of spoken out against what's happening. A lot of the complaints including from a kind of former Putin loyalist um have been to do with the internet outages. There have been a lot of internet blackouts uh in recent weeks and months supposedly to do with security, but some his critics say uh that it's to do with Vladimir Putin wanting to tighten control and to suppress any disscent here. Um so there have been instances where there's been complaints about that. There have been complaints about the economy as well. Lots of small businesses are going to the wall because there's been hikes in VAT. People are unhappy about cuts to public services. And this is all because of the war. The economy is now entirely geared towards the war. Um money has been taken from one place and many places been put towards the Ministry of Defense. And with the war now it's in in its fifth year. People are uh growing increasingly dissatisfied with it. You can detect that both within the elites and within the public. And I think um the Kremlin seems to know that. It's allowed this kind of bubbling discontent, these various instances to to to appear and that is rare. And I think the longer the war goes on, the longer without any obvious benefits, the danger for Vladimir Putin certainly does increase the danger and the threats to his to his rule.
If Vladimir Putin is harboring any any concerns about challenges to his leadership, about an assassination attempt, about even a a kind of a popular uprising, is he displaying any sign of it? Because, you know, I have seen him out and about relatively regularly over the past couple of months.
Yeah, that's right. He has been out and about, especially recently. He met Iran's foreign minister in St. Petersburg a couple of weeks ago. um of course uh and recently had had an event in Moscow where he met members of Russia's indigenous community. So um according to those images everything's perfectly normal. But going back to that intelligence report he is now spending a lot of time hunkered down. And if we actually look at the number of public appearances, meetings um and trips he's done in the first kind of portion of this year, the first few months, those have dropped off um quite significantly. It's certainly true that he's he's been out and about less than he was last year. Um and that's I think that certainly does reflect tighter security around him and that is to be expected given events elsewhere in the world um with the toppling of Maduro, the assassination of Ayatollah Ali and also this kind of um encroaching these encroaching long-range drone attacks by Ukraine further into Russia.
Here's here's one for you, Ivor. I mean, look, clearly there are genuine concerns about the veracity of this intelligence report from an unnamed European intelligence agency. So, but it has done the rounds in terms of European media and indeed the kind of elites in the capitals. I mean, are we perhaps in the West guilty of a bit of wishful thinking?
Yeah. Yeah, I think that's certainly true. Um there are lots of Western leaders, lots of Western governments who would like to see the back of Vladimir Putin. course um that is I think a given. Everyone can agree agree on that. And I think as you say wishful thinking from this intelligence report maybe as we discussed designed to kind of destabilize the elites. So some kind of discord there and also make Putin look weak in the eyes of the Russian public. But at the same time uh even if he is replaced I think the question is who who would come next? Who would replace him? And that's where kind of things get difficult because as we've been talking about he's been in power for so long he's con the whole kind of leadership structure and the way Russia works has been molded to him. It is his critics say an authoritarian state with him at the center. All power goes through him. And so whoever does come next whenever that is it doesn't necessarily mean that Russia will change even if its leader does. If for Russia to change, that could take a lot longer than for its leader to change.
And that's your lot for this week on This Is Why, and a pretty busy one it's been. In fact, if you want to know what it must be like to be on the front line with Putin's Russia, well, we have an episode when I sat down with our ambassador to Estonia. We also took a closer look at whether the United Nations is still fit for its original purpose, ending wars, Dominic Wagon, our international affairs editor on top form there. For those episodes and more, just scroll back in your feed. We are back the other side of the weekend. Till then, take care.