Transcription
Donald Trump is trying to reassure the markets, and it's going rather well for the American indices, a little less well for Bitcoin. We'll talk about it today. Trump confirms that there will be no tariffs as high on China, and consequently, that reassures the markets as well. We'll do a check-in on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and of course, we'll take a quick look at the fundings. There's quite a bit to say today. Just before we start, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available. +8.04R on the SPT algorithms last week. A very good week, and also the LIM algorithms which made 31 TP. It's accessible to everyone. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will lead you to this page. You just have to click on the first link right here to sign up on Billgate, our partner link. And once you've signed up, just click on the third link. So, here, you'll be able to sign up. It's glitching a bit on my end, but it will load, don't worry. So, right here, my connection is glitching a bit. You click on this second link, Algo Trading Mentorship VIP Alcoin and crypto. Once you've signed up, it will give you access to all the content: the mentorship, the algorithms, the VIP Alcoin and crypto. This is where, from my perspective, I will share the best opportunities in the altcoin market in these VIP crypto rooms. And here we have the VIP Alcoin, which is right there.
So, to come back to BTC, Donald Trump is reassuring the markets a bit, especially as it greatly benefits the American indices. So, we see that this risk-on market is still a bit fragile. As soon as Trump gives good news, boom, it takes off immediately. Obviously, the market will look for key levels before initiating this kind of movement. As if it were by chance, it's clearly not by chance from my point of view that we just recovered the week's low before this big move. But this is for the American indices; we have exactly the same thing on the S&P 500. And this shows that unfortunately, Bitcoin is lagging behind, because Bitcoin, apart from a mini rebound, hasn't done anything extraordinary. So, this shows that there's not much demand for Bitcoin at the moment, because when we compare the difference in rebounds, we've gone back to Thursday's highs on the Nasdaq, and even almost the week's high, knowing that this is last week's high, which is right there. So, you see, we've come very close. Our week's high on BTC is here. So, you see the difference in rebounds is frankly ridiculous compared to the price action we have on the indices, which are much more bullish. So, this is a bit of weakness. How is this explained? It's explained by the fact that we still have outflows here at the ETF level, minus 366 million. So, despite this good news, investors continue to sell their Bitcoin while they are buying American indices. So, this shows that American indices are being prioritized over Bitcoin, which may be considered expensive or not in a good position by some investors.
Quickly on Ethereum, to also take a look at the ETFs, to see if this is specific to Bitcoin or the crypto market in general. We see that it's specific to the crypto market, with another minus 132 million yesterday on Ethereum. So, there's a wave of de-risking from cryptos, and risk is being maintained on the American indices, because graphically, yes, it's completely different. I'll quickly show you the indices in daily view, and then I'll show you Bitcoin. Well, we can still see that one is looking much worse than the other, and there you go, we see directly that Bitcoin is looking worse than the American indices. So, well, it's normal, there are many more sellers here. Now, have we bottomed out? Well, from a technical point of view, we cannot confirm that at all for now. This is just a rebound, what we have here. Okay. It's just a rebound. Now, what we can note is that on the CME futures, the objective has been reached, which was to take out the stops here, which allowed us to work on the wick. So, the wick has been worked on, that's good. Also, what we can note is that here, we are still working. The price never stops anywhere without reason. The price stopped precisely in this daily FVG. We can see that we came back to make a wick in it, and that initiated our rebound. So, it's a good zone to try to mark a bottom and move back up. Okay. Now, what needs to be understood is that what we will observe is the weekly close. I've already told you, but if the price comes to settle below this low, then it would form a breaker block, and then it would confirm with very high probability that the rebounds will fail to allow us to move back up, and we would enter a bearish swing with objectives like 98,000, or this FVG zone between 86,000 and 92,000. Well, dramatic in itself, but it would potentially be the bearish swing we could initiate. In any case, it would confirm well here that we have a top for perhaps several weeks. It's not confirmed yet.
Now, in daily, the level to observe is the bearish breaker we have here. Here we have two bearish breakers that have formed, and roughly, the price has a chance to come back to work this breaker. And what to observe is whether we get rejected or not. So, this will be the breaker zone. Here, if we see Bitcoin pull back to the breaker and get rejected, then expect the weekly breaker to form as well. Does this well confirm our bearish bias, which will have the objective of the low of 101,500 and obviously the low, in my opinion, of 98,200 dollars? The monthly fair value gap here is a good zone to act. Why? Because there's already the daily fair value gap. There are also, well, the H4 hourly fair value gaps, but we don't really care about that, and especially because the fundings are super negative. That is to say, there are a lot of people shorting Bitcoin. So, this is what causes, even if there's not much demand, the market to have the possibility to trigger a rebound and go for stops. Where are the stops? Well, they are here, for example, there's this zone of highs at 109,288, and then if there's a deeper squeeze, you take all the last highs and all that. These are stop zones that the market can try to purge. Because what needs to be understood is that when the dynamic is bearish, there are rebounds, and especially when the fundings are bearish, meaning a lot of people are exiting, theoretically. That doesn't mean the price will go to the moon. It just means that the price has the potential to reach stop zones, thus forming short squeezes before going back down, because yes, demand is needed, and from what we see with the ETFs, there is no more demand. And so, many of you tell me sometimes, yes, but we already pumped without the ETFs, etc. What needs to be understood is that now, the inflows and outflows on the ETFs show us the supply and demand relationship we have on the spot market and from investors. Yes, obviously, not all investors go through ETFs, but ETFs now represent a good part of the volume, a good part of the trading, and the psychology will be the same. I mean, if investors are positioning themselves on Bitcoin spot, those who enter via ETFs will rather have a fairly similar behavior. For example, it would be rare for institutions to buy Bitcoin spot and other institutions to sell Bitcoin ETFs. That doesn't make sense. They will act more or less the same way. That's why reading this flow allows us to see precisely how the supply and demand relationship is behaving. We know here that many buyers were absorbed at the top and are stuck on the ETFs, whether they are retail investors or institutional investors. Notably, I believe there was a fund from Luxembourg that announced entering BTC. So, I don't know at what price they entered, but well, maybe for now they are underwater. After all, they think very long-term. Again, these funds are not there to do intraday or swing trading. You can imagine that if they are going to build positions, it will be for the next 5, 10, 15 years. So, they don't care about buying at the top literally, because if you think that in 10 years, Bitcoin will be at a minimum of 500,000, it will multiply by 5. You don't care if you buy at 115,000 or 100,000. It changes very little. Especially since they have a lot of cash to invest if they want to. Anyway, parenthesis closed.
So, here, we see that for now, demand has left the market, and that's what needs to be understood. That is to say, if we don't find significant bars on inflows, it means there will be few new investors, that demand is gradually leaving the market. And so, the only thing we will unfortunately have are rebounds. So, this is a bearish dynamic because there are more sellers than buyers. And consequently, even with negative fundings, it will just allow short squeezes to be triggered each time, but it won't be sustainable. In short, we will liquidate those who are shorting, and then we will go back down because there is no demand, no new investors, and therefore prices cannot go back up. I'm not saying that's the case currently. I mean, I'm not saying it will happen like that. I'm just saying that it risks happening like that if there's no change on the ETF side. Now, the zone we've reached is interesting here to attempt a bottom. Clearly, if it doesn't react, if we lose the daily fair value gap, expect the price to come back to recover 101,680. But this, from my point of view, doesn't mean much. It's due to the crash we had. So, the next tangible point of interest is more here, below 100,000. So, that would be 98,200 dollars. But before that, given the fundings, I think we can witness a rebound this weekend. It wouldn't surprise me at all, since on the Binance, Bybit, etc. side, there's too much negative funding. So, triggering a small short squeeze to make these short sellers who shorted at the bottom lose out, wouldn't be impossible. Okay, we see that there's a lot of open interest here, so it started from here. Personally, I think that if BTC manages to sustainably go above this point this weekend, to be precise, it's from here that people started shorting quite quickly. I think we can break their stops. So, 109,175, and perhaps even a little higher. Theoretically, it wouldn't change the dynamic. Remember that the last descending high is here. That a rebound in the premium zone of this movement is not to be excluded. So, here it's around 109,000 to 112,800. These are zones we can reach to rebound before unfortunately going back down. If the dynamic remains this way, I want to emphasize that. I really want to emphasize that because here, we are analyzing the dynamic as a whole, simply. HH, nothing more to say. What bothers me a bit is this weakness compared to the American indices. So, well, it follows the movement, but it follows it much less. And the CME market is closed this weekend, so we'll see a bit where we'll be on Monday when the futures market opens. It's the most important market for me now. Well, one of the most important. And yeah, I have nothing more to say. It remains bearish, but it's a good zone to attempt a bottom or a rebound. It has already provided a rebound in a very specific zone, the FVG zone. We'll see if we can rebound a bit more with regard to ETH.
So, ETH, on the other hand, it hasn't waited for key levels, and that's a bit problematic. That is to say, well, it broke its daily FVG. Well, it's not the end of the world, but we do have a close below it, so it indicates a last respect of this FVG for now. The close is not very strong. And it stopped just before taking out the stops. That's what's a bit problematic for me, is that we haven't come to recover the weekend stops. So, I find that a bit strange. So, it leads me to think that it will be done, that it will potentially be done, I don't know when, but I don't think this is a bottom. Okay? I think at most we'll come back to purge the stops right here. Well, not necessarily, again. What would be positive for Ether is to manage to break this high. That way, it could form our first higher low and our first higher high. And then, it would be directed towards ETH, it would be a nice structure, but as long as we don't settle above this high, and I'm not talking about hunting stops and then going back down. That's not interesting. What we want is a real breakout. Okay, you remember what's needed is to break the daily fair value gap. So, theoretically, as long as the daily FVG isn't broken, you can consider all these rebounds as rebounds before, unfortunately, theoretical bearish continuations. I'm not saying it will happen, I'm just saying it's theoretical. Here, when we see the close, well, we don't have the weekly close yet, but for now, well, it's in continuation of the previous candle. So, well, we have that, it doesn't teach us anything more. And in hourly, for now, let's locate, what I like is to locate the stops. So, is it the daily high too? I'm looking quickly. Yes, that's yesterday's high. That is to say, very often in a bearish dynamic, the price comes to take out the stops of the last previous high. So, in hourly, which is here. On top of that, it's the previous day's high. So, this is a completely obvious stop zone for those who have recently shorted. Let's look at the fundings. Are there negative fundings, which can indicate that people are shorting or not. And so, currently, yes, there are negative fundings on Binance, Bybit, almost. So, there are people who are probably shorting Ethereum with stops above this high. So, for example, we could come and take out the stops here, and if we get rejected, it could be an indicator, for example, of just a liquidity purge. So, liquidity grab, having well purged the shorts before coming to recover the stops that weren't taken here. This can be a way to read the price. After, I'm telling you, Bitcoin and Ethereum are very little, I don't know since when exactly, but it's something I've noticed, they are super illiquid and respond less and less to these concepts at certain times. Many miss the American indices, for example, and I think it's due to a huge problem of liquidity and interest. I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are markets that are of less and less interest currently for trading, and that makes their order books much thinner, and anyway, we saw it with the crash we had recently, you remember, I was already talking about it a bit before, I was telling you on futures we were seeing weird things, even on CME micro futures there was much less liquidity than before, and this crash, for me, confirms all of that. So, it's to tell you that the price can deviate a bit from the concepts, meaning that here, for example, when generally the market will respond well to these concepts, this is basic price action, but know that now the market will probably try to purge as many orders as possible given the little liquidity we have. And that's what causes us to sometimes have very significant rebounds without necessarily reaching specific levels. I don't know if you see what I mean, but roughly, it can happen that the market makes bigger rebounds than we think in order to purge more liquidity because, well, the order book is so thin that in fact there are very few people, for example, who will be invalidated here, and the market will try to invalidate these people higher up, and it might stop somewhere in the middle, like here. So, that's what I'm trying to explain. So, it worked. In fact, you need a reading of the bias and a very precise bias that you don't change every day. Okay? For example, for me now, the bias is sellers on BTC, ETH, same. So, for example, if there are stronger rebounds, it wouldn't surprise me at all. What could reverse this bias for me is, for example, a bullish structure like this one. And as long as the market doesn't break the last descending high, for me, these are just rebounds that will bring us lower towards the weekend lows, or towards a retest of the crash low, for example. That's more how I see things. BTC, the way I see things is that this FVG zone, and I'll stop here today, yes, it has a chance to mark a bottom, but it's not that I consider it unlikely, it's that I think there's more suffering in the market in forming rebounds and going back down rather than going back up. Because I think everyone wants it to go to the moon, and if that's not the case, I think people could panic more if altcoins come back to test the wicks. And for now, the alts are coming back to test the wicks, but we're not even at 10-15% of the wick. Very often, people will start to panic in discount zones. What does that mean? It means you take, for example, AV like this, you take a fib up to the highest point of the wick and you locate the 0.575 zone or the reload zone. I take the 1.04 zone here. Try to tell myself that if people are going to panic, it would be more around there. So, that's what leads me to think that there's more potential for a downturn in the market as a whole, without it being catastrophic, because the catastrophe is already behind us, the market has already purged stop zones from several months ago right here. But it's to say that, in my opinion, there's a chance to make a maximum number of people panic in these zones, and that these would be very good zones to position oneself. And that's what leads me to think that Bitcoin will continue to be a bit scary, etc. And when I look at supply and demand tools and so on, I think it's very possible. After, I don't know if it will happen, but for now, the market is well engaged in a bearish dynamic until proven otherwise. And as long as that's the case, well, rebounds are opportunities to go back down afterwards. For me, we are in rebound zones. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we have a rebound this week or at the beginning of the week, because the market is in zones to do that. But as long as it doesn't break, for example, the previous order block which is here, well, Bitcoin, we know that roughly, it maintains a selling flow, and this rebound, if it's not broken. So, if we don't break 116,000, there's a high chance that it will unfortunately be just a simple rebound to continue purging lower, notably to 1500 or 98,200. That's roughly the idea. So, note these last descending highs of this week that need to be broken to reverse this dynamic. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to leave a thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a comment. 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