Transcription
Sailor and Micro Strategy is done. A lot of people seem to think so. Uh, let's, let's put some truth into it. Let's go over the data. Let's go over some real math because a lot of people think Micro Strategy is done. It's a ton of FUD out here.
I'm going to play you a couple videos, a couple of the influencers online that are causing some problems. And one of the biggest things, which we're going to go over right now, is people are saying, why invest in Micro Strategies when six months ago, if I had invested in Bitcoin, I would have done better. So, you can kind of look up the charts. It still went up. It's, you know, it's 330. Six months ago would have been like 323. Yeah, it, it probably, it didn't outperform Bitcoin. Bitcoin was 98,000 and now it's at 114,000. So, it's a slight difference. So, we're going to go over what these differences are and what's going on. A lot of people are asking that question, too.
Also, some uh interesting stuff on uh BMNR came out today, too. You guys definitely want to go on to my Twitter and check this out. This was uh put out by Tom Lee. Basically, their MNAV is a lot higher than people thought, and that's because they've been buying up so much uh so much uh Ethereum. He basically called when he would start buying Ethereum, too, uh on another tweet the other day, uh yesterday, and he did, and he, he basically brought Ethereum back. So, hats off to Tom Lee. He just knows what's up.
But basically, stuff like this, I'm going to show you by this guy right here. He said he invested $30,000 into MSTR in April. Today, it's worth $31,000. If I'd put into BTC instead, I'd have $50,000. Correct. Pretty much depends, you know, or close to it. If you had put $50,000, you'd have about $83,000. And if you had put in $50,000 MSTR, you'd have like $52,000. So, it's a huge difference.
So, is So, is MSTR done? Micro Strategy is done. Do is it even worth investing in? So, we're going to look at what's going on. And this also leads us to is SBET and BMR Bitmine, is it worth buying those? What are we going to do? What is the strategy? So, it's important to understand this, when to get out of these treasury companies and understand how to rotate in or out of them. Maybe into the ETFs, maybe into Bitcoin, or maybe into ETH. So, this is something important for anyone who's in Bitmine or in ESBet to understand how these things work so that we are prepared because at some point, you will have to make the exit.
Okay, so let's play some videos because they're just lots of fun. And that's Micro Strategy and Michael Sailor. I'm now convinced that Joe Luben and Michael Sailor, as well as all of their followers and everybody else who's big fans of this entire uh crypto treasury company scheme, are co-conspirators in what may potentially be one of the biggest crimes ever. This is basically a massive Ponzi scheme as far as I can tell, and I'm no longer willing to sit idly by while this goes down. Joe Luben's Sharpoint Gaming is down something like 15% today alone. Ethereum's down 3%. What the hell is going on? Bitcoin just hit all-time highs, yet Micro Strategy is something like 20% off the top. Are they going to stop doing their at-the-market issuance ever? No. Michael Sailor did provide some clarity in his latest earnings call around the conditions under which they would continue to do that. But the reality is, is we continue to get diluted and shareholders are getting completely wrecked. In the case of Sharp Link Gaming, if you bought as soon as it came out, you're down upwards of 50% or more right now. That's insane. Lawsuits are going to be written about, are going to occur. History will be written about this. As far as I'm concerned, Sam Bank.
So, you can see he's a little passionate, just a little bit. Um, but is he warranted to be so passionate about it? And then he later on came out uh in this video and had an apology video to Michael Sailor, calling him a genius, and it's not a Ponzi. Oh boy, it's, it's just a mess. And keep in mind, this guy's getting a lot of views. 1.4 million on this one, 630,000, 1.7 million on this one. So, it is impacting certain things.
Then this one, he came out, I believe yesterday uh or two days ago, talking about the MSTR guidelines. Remember, they changed their guidelines. Uh, they can basically, Michael Sailor went back on his word, and he's angry again. So, you know, the anger doesn't stop. Angry that, you know, they're going to, they, they can sell it at the market at 2.5% uh 2.5 NAV, which I don't even think it's going to get there. People are angry about something that probably isn't going to happen.
So, let's go over this stuff so we can really understand if it's even worth, if it's even worth buying. Should we even buy Micro Strategies? Is it worth buying? You know, um, these are things that we, we should definitely understand.
Okay, so listen, this is the thing. Micro Strategies, if you go back early days. All right, let's go way back. All right, this was trading below NAV, and I had showed you guys uh on my last video an ETF I had bought, or a trust, uh, like an ETF I had bought, a crypto one that was below NAV, and I made a ton of money. So, a lot of the gains people made was when this came out of the bare market into the bull market and started trading above NAV, and that's where a lot of these gains were made. But is it better to own this in a bull market or bare market? You know, we, we, we have to start thinking a little bit more like investors and a lot less reactive.
Okay. So, when you start looking at this down here, this was trading below the Bitcoin that Micro Strategies had. So, one or two of those X's for some of these people when it started to pump was from just it catching up back up to NAV and then going over NAV. So, that's why it was going ahead of Bitcoin. At some point, Bitcoin went up 10x from the bottom, but Micro Strategies went up 30x, and that is because people were more enthusiastic about it and basically saying, well, this is just going to keep pumping.
So, I wanted to bring your attention to this. Is Bitcoin worth investing in, or is Micro Strategies a better investment? The one reason people were investing in Micro Strategies, leading to the share price to increase dramatically, catching up to NAV, then going up to 4x NAV, which was absolutely insane. People were paying four times the amount of NAV, and they were doing that because they're getting this thing called a Bitcoin yield, which Micro Strategies' Sailor kind of termed, and he figured it out, and this yield is right here, BTC yield 74%. So, when they were buying it back here, you got to understand 2023 and then into 2024, the yield was absolutely monstrous. He was basically adding 74% more Bitcoin per every share of Micro Strategies that you own. So, if you owned one share of Micro Strategies and it had one Bitcoin behind it, a year later, it would have had 1.74% of four Bitcoin behind it, 74% more Bitcoin behind it. So, it was better to buy this than Bitcoin. So, this is where this massive rally started to come in. The volume, the volatility, all that started to come in. So, hopefully, you guys understand it.
However, now this year, so far, we're over, I mean, we're about three quarters of the year done. His yield is at 25%. Okay, from his last post that he put up, they'll probably end the year at 30%. So, that's very interesting to think about, right? He's gone from producing 74% yield down to about 30% yield. I believe this number is probably going to go lower over time. The reason it's going to go lower is just because the scale of what he's created is so large. It is, there's only so much more you can do. You know, he already owns 74, 73 or 75 billion worth of Bitcoin. Adding another billion dollars in Bitcoin doesn't make your yield really go up that much. You'd have to put a lot of convertible notes out there. And even doing that, it's like, even if you add in $5 billion worth of convertible notes, you're only moving the yield up another five or 6%.
This is the problem that Micro Strategies and Michael Sailor are into. How can they fix it? Well, they probably have to change their model a little bit at this point. They're probably going to have to come into a Bitcoin bank or become something of a Bitcoin-centric business because that's the only way they can add more Bitcoin. Buying more Bitcoin on the market isn't really going to do anything. They really have to start creating value in their business. The Micro Strategies business itself isn't really worth anything. It's worth maybe a few billion dollars. I really don't know why they don't sell that and buy more Bitcoin with that because that's realistically what they're probably the next step is going to be.
So, when you start looking at this was July 22nd, they had a Bitcoin yield. I was looking here at 20%. And yeah, right here. Um, oh, hold on a minute. Oh, this is a different company. Sell more scientific. So, if you're a smaller company, it's important to remember if you're smaller, you can add yield faster. So, back here, let's see. Strategy acquired, they had 25%. This is July 29th. So, imagine going from 74, 75% to 25% in a year. They'll probably end the year off, if they're lucky, at 30%. When they were smaller, they're able to add more yield. So, that's why I was like, it's important to get into BMR and important to get into ESBET early, Tom Lee and Joseph Luben's company early, because the yield down here is absolutely huge. And you've kind of seen that, especially when I showed you the uh, the one today, the amount that they're accumulating, the yield is going to be huge.
In fact, if you look at BMR, Bitmine, and you look at ESB, they are almost at NAV. I mean, ESB is at NAV and probably even below NAV on certain days. So, you got to start to understand that they were didn't have any Ethereum a month and a half ago, two months ago, and now they got $20 and, and uh $20 worth, and then Bitmine has like $40 worth. So, you got to understand something. Think about it. The amount of value that they create in a short period of time. So, this is what you have to think about. Early, early ones get the worm. Later ones, it becomes a lot more difficult.
Micro Strategies is not really a company at this point. It is a financial instrument. Would I be buying strategy now? They call it, would I be buying strategy? No, I probably wouldn't be buying strategy over Bitcoin. I would be buying Bitcoin. The reason people were buying strategy also was because of the fact that strategy was something that companies could buy and they couldn't buy Bitcoin. So, they were getting in it early and they were giving it a very high MNAV. Uh, while, while you look at, you know, Bitmine and you look at ESB, well, they don't have as high of a of a of a NAV. And the reason they don't have that is because, first of all, um, people can go buy Ethereum. It's a lot more accessible. There's ETFs. The rules and regulations have changed. So, there's not a need to buy a company. Only people are really kind of buying those uh bets like SB and uh BMRs, a lot of retail investors, but and they're plowing in there because they understand the potential, and a lot of Tom Lee fans, and also you're getting people, some institutions are obviously going in there like Arkite, like Ken, Ken Griffin are getting in there. But however, you have to understand that the big serious institutions are like, well, I'll just go buy Ethereum. I'll buy $100 million worth of Ethereum, buy $200 million worth of Ethereum, and I'll manage it myself. So, that's what's kind of happening in the background.
So, before you couldn't go buy a couple hundred million dollars of Bitcoin. So, strategy played a very important role for those players. The times have kind of changed. Now, a lot of people are saying that this is going to go down back to the NAV. I don't think it's going to go back to the NAV because I think Micro Strategy and Michael Sailor have too many fanboys. But however, I do think it's going to compress. I do think it's going to compress. I think right now, what is the valuation right now of it? I think it's like, uh, it's definitely over a hundred billion. Uh, over a hundred billion. Oh, this is not the right market cap. Yeah. So, the MNAV on this is probably like about 1.3, 1.4. It's probably going to be around there. Maybe a little bit lower. I, I, I can't imagine it going too much lower just because there is still value in what Micro Strategies and Michael Sailor is doing. There's a lot of value he's created. Plus, if Bitcoin does get to $200 or $250, it's going to rip to $500, $600 anyways. So, there is a potential that it goes that high. So, there's still a potential. It's not over. Plus, Michael Sailor isn't one to be counted out. There's the Michael Sailor effect that he could come up with another genius plan of how to monetize it. Maybe people are talking about a Bitcoin bank, Bitcoin system that he's creating, all these other things that he's out there making. So, please keeping all that stuff in mind. You cannot discount it back all the way to NAV. That's what people are saying. It's going to go. I'm like, no, it's not really going to go back to NAV. It's got $75 billion. It's worth a hundred billion. Is it going to go back to NAV? Probably not. I think the closest to NAV is probably in a bull market, 1.2, 1.3. But don't be surprised this gets up to, if he comes out with another great idea, another great concept. This goes back up to 1.5, 1.6, 1.7. So, that's why people are in it. Number one.
So, is it time to buy Micro Strategies at the low or strategy? I keep saying Micro Strategy at the low. Personally, no. I'm getting into Bitmine and I'm getting into ESP. But I don't believe the FUD from guys like Nick is really warranted. I don't think the FUD that guys like Nick out here and they're going out. I mean, I think they're going for the views, to be honest with you. And it's fine. A lot of YouTubers, a lot of guys on X, they go for the views. You make some money. It's cool. But however, when I'm looking at Bitcoin, the charts looking good. When I'm looking at Micro Strategies, it's going to strategy. It's going to follow Bitcoin. Okay? It's going to follow Bitcoin at the end of the day. And I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin gets to 200 or 250,000 end of the year, beginning of next year. I don't think it's going to get the end of the year. I think it's probably going to be sometime beginning of next year. Uh, but Tom Lee and some people think it could get there end of the year, but I, I think that's a little bit too soon because Bitcoin to me needs, you know, it needs consolidation time. That's usually what has historically happened. And right now with Wall Street coming in, the way they're buying is actually very different. We never used to see this. I've been in Bitcoin for a long time. They used to just go zip. It's just crazy up and down. This is like stable. I, I just, it's just mind-boggling, you know, compared to what it is. Like, kind of steps up. It's just nuts. So, I think it needs some consolidation time personally. Um, this time, this period, I mean, I was, I was deep in crypto this period when the last bull run. It was just nuts. We're not really seeing this insanity, this ups and downs, ups and downs. We're just not seeing it. It's just kind of lagging up. And it's kind of a much of a, you can see there's a lot more stability. There's a lot more inflows coming in, steady inflows coming in versus like one-time shots and then sell it all. One-time shots and sell it all. So, you're starting to kind of see that with Bitcoin, and it's, it's a maturing market.
So, what should you do? Is Micro Strategies dead? Is it finished? Not at all. However, I just think there's better investments at this point. I really do. Um, if you're already in it, I would consider just buying Bitcoin if, if that's what you want. If you want a, you know, a Bitcoin exposure, if you want Ethereum exposure, because that's probably going to rip much more in Bitcoin over the next probably six months, I would definitely look at ESBET and BMR. They are going to be the next Micro Strategies. They are taking Micro Strategies, what strategy, what strategy has already done, and they are changing it. They are making it their own. They're adding their own kind of twist to it. My, my opinion, possibly making it better because they can stake it and make a return. I mean, people haven't really done the calculations, but you can make a billion dollars a year. Tom Lee and Espet, Joe Lubing can make a billion dollars a year in income off of just staking. And depending on how high Ethereum goes, it could be two or three billion dollars a year. Their companies could be severely undervalued once they purchase the five billion, the five million or six million um Ethereum just because of that 3% that they're going to be getting every year back to their treasuries by staking. So, that's another reason that those companies have a little bit brighter future. I believe the staking of what they can do, and this is where income becomes important.
If, if, and this is a big if, the 600, I believe 650,000 Bitcoin that strategy owned, if it was paying them 3% a year, that'd be 20,000 Bitcoin a year. Just think about it. They could have an absolutely enormous, enormous multibillion dollar return. If you think about it, the return on something like that could be about two to three billion dollars a year. It was huge. It could be even more. Okay, so these are things a lot of people aren't really thinking about. They don't really fully comprehend. That is what strategy is missing. That little link, that little 3%, even though it's 3%, is income that can come in, and they can take that income. They can compound it. They can do other things with it. They can buy other assets with it. It's actually gives these companies something that strategy didn't have. So, that's why I'm actually kind of bullish on both Bitmine and ESP because of this reason. I'm like, in the future, they will have more maneuverability while strategy really has to figure out how to utilize their Bitcoin. Do they become a bank? What do they got to do? Sell off their Micro Strategy business. How they got to, how they got to go forward. But right now, I do think that it will compress a little bit. The NAVs will compress a little bit on strategies long term. But depending on how the market goes, if we go into a crazy bullish market, it might, depending on what Sailor does, it could also move up. But it's not going to go up to two or three or four. Don't think this thing's going to double or triple. It's going to follow Bitcoin much, much closer. And bigger they get, it's gonna closer and closer follow Bitcoin. That's just what it is.
The time you want to buy a company like strategy is during a bare market. If we enter one, a lot of people are saying we're not going to enter one. I still think we're going to enter something of a slowdown at least. When the MNAV, when the NAV of strategies is below, let's say Bitcoin is going for, let's say we go to 250 and Bitcoin comes back to 100. Okay. When the, the NAV of Bitcoin is at 90,000 per Bitcoin, 10% lower, that's when you start buying strategy because now you got a little bit of MNAV that you're going to follow up on.
And I showed you guys this last time. Remember last time I showed you this one? I got a 3x in this one right now, and I haven't sold because partly because the MNAV that I bought at, which was I was paying $25, 25 or $26 a share when the NAV was 36, 30, $37. I, I was gaining almost 33% almost, well actually 50% more in my NAV, and that's why this one has been the best performer in my entire portfolio. It's the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index. Okay. And even now, there's an MNAV, but it's not as wide anymore. It's only a 56% M, uh, NAV on it difference. $74 versus $79, which is what the NAV is. So, NAV is in blue, and the market price is in green. So, the market price is right below it. So, if you track this, probably close enough, every time we get very close to hitting the the NAV on this particular product, it's a financial product, this Bitwise, it's probably a good idea to sell.
Now, during the bare market, it was getting no love. I mean, look at this. $8 and it, $8 price, and it had a NAV value of $21. I mean, when I bought it, it was kind of closing in. And then I, I mean, the people that really got down here at $8, $9, $10 were getting this at a 50% discount. I mean, these people killed it. These people, if they held, would have made an 8x. Was it an 8x? No, it should have been about a 4x if you follow the NAV. That's all they should have made. They made an extra. They doubled up on top of it. And that's the power of these things. And same thing happened to me. I made an extra. Instead of getting a 2x because it would have been worth about $36, I made a 3x. So, this is something to really understand that these products, you have to take advantage of them in the bare market. In the bull market, the advantages aren't as much.
So, if we're going to go into a full bull market, which a lot of people are saying it started, some people are saying hasn't started. Ethereum used to do that and that. Okay, I don't really care. This is pretty much starting of a bull market. And you can kind of see that by the compression of the NAVs right here. That's already happened in this particular product right here, the Bitwise 10. So, you can see the compression already happening. What's going to start to happen is the compression will become bigger and bigger, and the MNA, the NAV will go below the fair market value at some point. That's when you need to buy. That's kind of the buy signal, you know.
So, we can kind of look back right here, kind of see what happened. Again, this was a bull market right here. Look, the, the, the NAV actually, the market price went above the NAV temporarily here. That's during the bull market, and then went below it during the bare market. That's interesting. That's really interesting. And these are all the assets it owns. 72% Bitcoin. So, I shouldn't have had these type of returns. Only reason I had them was because uh the market price and the NAV. There's a discrepancy. So, we have to understand these things and we have to understand the benefits and when to get into these things. And right now, I would say probably just go buy Bitcoin. But if you're going to buy ETH, buy Bit Mine and buy Sharlink. In my opinion, those are the plays on the NAVs. Those are the plays on the yields that will outperform Ethereum. But again, that's a risk. The risk could be that Ethereum runs and those don't. Well, I, I don't see it happening, but it could happen. Those are the risks. But when it comes to Micro Strategies, I think for now, I don't want to say, but I don't think you're going to see the gains you're going to see. I think it's just better to buy Bitcoin to be very personal. I mean, to be very real, I think it's just better to buy Bitcoin. However, it will still hold slightly over NAV, and then as we enter a bare market, it's going to go under NAV, just like it did last time. And all these products will go under NAV for a little bit of time. I don't know how much further under they will go. Last time they went a little bit under. Uh, maybe this time they go a little bit more. We don't know. Every market's a little bit different, but that's really the place to buy them. And I'm going to be looking at Bitwise 10 next time. I don't know how low it's going to go. I think it'll probably go, I mean, we don't know how high it's going to go either. So, when this goes over NAV, I might be, I might start selling it and then rebuying it when it goes under. I don't know. But the NAV is actually very interesting, and it plays a role in everything out here in crypto and in stocks because they don't mimic each other perfectly. It's an arbitrage situation for smart people to make money. Like I showed you here, you could have made an 8x versus buying those assets yourself and made only a 4x. Think about that. That's wild. It's a way to leverage yourself because that NAV is actually helping out once it's not there. So, this still has a little bit more to go because I know once the crazy bull market starts, this will go over NAV again. Historically, it has. I believe it'll do it again. So, I'm not going to be a seller of this at, you know, what is it? Market price $75. No, no, no. I'm going to wait for this to get to the $100 and go to 110 where the NAV is 100, and I'm going to get out then. So, I have my strategy set up ready to go on these things, as you should on all of these assets. Hopefully, that was helpful for you guys to understand what is going on in the market and what to expect. Take care.